tv Fast Money CNBC November 11, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
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>> and you can talk to him. >> shareholders. >> well, the argument is that the value has yet to be realized. >> don't hold your breath. >> he is always such a joy. thank you here on the closing bell. have a great weekend everybody. fast money begins now. >> fast money starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time square. i'm melissa lee. tonight on fast, the commodity crush is on gold, oil, silver all getting hit but creating a buying opportunity for one group of stocks. we'll give you those names. plus choosing sides. why two companies are in hot water after speaking out about both president elect donald trump and president ball balm and later the trump rally could be about to give a major boost to one dow stock reporting earnings last week. first we start off with the markets. another record for the dow but
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one group of stocks yet to join the trump rally big tech all getting hit this week. finishing the week in the red in fact. the question becomes are these stocks going to join soon and if not could the market keep rallying without them. >> i don't think they'll join the rally soon but to answer the question i think the market can rally. we had a similar conversation can the border market rally without the financials and we had different opinions but the reality was they did rally without financials. now they're exploding higher and we're talking about can the market rally without tech and i would submit the answer is absolutely. s&p is impervious to everything. if you whispered in my ear monday i have something to tell you, trump is going to win the election. i would have been short everything in the market. long gold. short the dollar, long the bond market and it all went completely reversed. >> a agree with that completely.
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i think -- i don't know if the market can go higher without them. i think so but i'm buying them. i bought more today. leerily it's a disappointing week for them relative to the market but i think the ones that i like i think of as reasonable value. i know everyone probably thinks amazon also is reasonable value i guess. i don't know but i just think this is a quality company. whether or not it's going to out perform in the short-term i have no idea. i'm happy to own it at these prices. a lot of the things that made the rally, obviously stop infrastructure but a better corporate tax structure. the ability to possibly repatriat money. could it go lower? of course. but i bought more today and yesterday. >> they're with a ton of cash and able to buy back stock and pay more dividends. now you may not want that but it doesn't mean that the rally in these things are over. they may go sideways for a bit.
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not sure but the market can, rally without these as we saw with the market rally without the financials. what we saw this week is just this massive rotation. out of these names and into the other areas but that does not mean that they're dead at all. >> there's a few factors that are converging right now, right? we had the euphemism over the elections and then also these trades were pretty much crowded trades going into the election. these were the growth stocks. the stocks that every hedge fund manager had to be in because that was the only place to get growth in this environment so when you put these two things together plus seasonality what do you think for the year ♪ >> it is more about positioning and you just said everyone was positioned in these stocks. they weren't positioned in industrials. not financials. financials up 10% last month. industrials up 6% in the last month. as long as someone leads who cares? who cares how the pins go down as long as they go down? but the iwm is up 7% in a couple
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of days. broaden the base. stocks are not healthy. >> it's a good thing. >> i will give you the negative. we saw a strong dollar today. and a very strong dollar in the future. that's a head wind for big cap tech. >> not for russell. >> you don't get it. you will see russell out perform if the dollar is your main concern. >> it's not necessarily bad but a dollar spike is bad. that's exactly what we saw. >> a dollar spike is bad. a bond market. >> it's slow and steady. nobody takes notice. and on tuesday night at one point ten year yields were 1.72% and now they're significantly over 2%. that is a significant move in a very short period of time. so the bond market rally for the right or wrong reasons. it doesn't matter but it's the wrong reasons for reasons we talked about last night and not least of which i think investors
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that have been in the bond market are testified that under a trump presidency whether they default on debt -- >> i hear you and it's a premis. that's what people do butly stand by the fact that if that were the case the market would not have rallied. financials would not have rallied. i think it's more of a reflection on people are pricing in the infrastructure trade. he's going to have to offer a lot of bonds to pay for that and that's the market getting ready for the flood. >> what are we doing next week after this historic week for the markets? >> so this is what i did this week and i'm staying on this. i was negative prior to the election. i wanted to wait for closure. we have closure now so i bought spiders. i think the overall market go higher. i bought my infrastructure play. i do believe it will be on consensus. will move higher. >> so you want emerging markets even though rates are moving higher? >> they have been battered.
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it's been the preloaded trade here. so i don't think that's going to kill it. i do believe today was natural and healthy. i think the market sold off a little bit. straight s'up not healthy and that's what we have done. >> well for me i bought financials industrials and small caps and i bought the dollar. you ride that whole thing. >> bullish. >> well, if there's money coming into the u. s., it's really hard to get bearish. i can create a scenario where we end up like we did last january or february and that's not today's problem. so trades the market right in front of him. >> all right. i took a little bit of the opposite side. big exposure to banks coming in. sold some of that. keep going up today. up again. upside calls in banks. i'll probably continue to do that. i just feel like so much good news is already priced in that it wouldn't be shocking to see a little backtrack or more than a
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little backtrack. >> i don't think bio tech is there but it's a lot closer than it's been for quite sometime. 285 has been the pivot. i think that's interesting so i think you could stay there. i also think that russell, i know he's in there. they were off to the races. if it fails here we have to have another conversation. >> as we head into next week what level should we look for? >> that's what i need a lot of. let's look at the monthly highs that we have seen. right here if we go back to august you'll see two levels here. basically the same levels. 21.93 and then you get one more right here in september, 2187 and then a brief one right about here in october.
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that's 2169. right here we topped out 21.82. so for me to be bullish about the overall market, month end higher than 2169. so just to oversimplify. bullish last day of november. bearish obviously trades below. you don't have to get overwhelmingly bearish. we can go all the way down to 2100 basically and still be in a constructive state for the overall market. we can do this without financials. i'm sorry. we can do this with financials and without tech. over here when you saw the last sell off when he was illuding to that in the show you had everything getting smacked. this time you don't have everything getting smacked. you have things rallying.
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>> 21.69 by the end of november. so five more points to the upside by the end of november to get constructive at the year end. >> until you get very bullish. >> very bullish. >> you can still be constructive below that but if you close above that closing november that's a real bullish sign. >> should we invite him back to the desk? >>. >> you can resume your chair. >> he's always spot on. do you know what i find interesting? we traded down to 20 or 25 or so tuesday night and we never came close to that during the trading session on wednesday. it's very rare that you trade down to a level overnight and don't revisit it at some point during the day when new york is open. i'm just pointing that out. doesn't mean it's going to happen next week. i do think it's going to happen at some point. if the russell does fail here at this 128 and 129 level i
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understand that's a bit of a reach but we are seemingly pricing in every positive conceivable thing that president elect trump can do and not even looking at the potential negatives out there. >> so you think we test those levels? >> my only point is i have been around a long time and it's very rare when something trades down to a level and doesn't trade during the session. >> everyone is positioned for not what happened. i'm talking not so much a donald trump presidency because i don't think the market would have rallied as hard as it did if you had had a donald trump win and republicans did not sweep the house and the senate. that to me is the major difference and that's going to bring capital. >> so you don't buy the fact that we could test that level? >> i'm not going to make that bet although he's incredibly handsome and smart. >> protest and curious comments
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from some ceos at major companies. those details plus donald trump could be creating a major buying opportunity for one emerging market according to a top global investor. and we'll break it down. more fast money straight ahead. '. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley. ♪ ♪ ♪
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>> after making statements about the outcome of the presidential election. >> that's right. new balance just opened it's brand new flag ship store here in san francisco and has been a long time opponent of the transpacific partnership and now it's facing some angry customers after it publicly supported donald trump's trade policies after the election and now some of those customers are taking to social media. showing pictures and videos on social media of them burning or tossing away their new balance shoes. this after a company spokesman told the wall street journal the obama administration turned a deaf ear to us and frankly with president elect trump we feel things are going to move in the
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right direction. the privately held company's position to support trump on trade is in part routed in his opposition to the transpacific partnership agreement which will endanger the shares of its domestically produced shoes in favor of competitors that rely more on overseas production. in a statement the company says new balance has a unique perspective on trade in that we want to make more shoes in the united states and not less. >> meantime, grub hub's stock was down today. he came under fire after he sent an e-mail to employees saying he strongly objects to what he calls the nationalist, antiimmigrant and hateful politics of donald trump and that anyone that disagrees should re-sign. he later issued a statement saying it advocated inclusion and that grubhub does not discriminal nate based on political believes. >> thank you so much.
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it's interesting because no fortune 500 company contributed to the trump campaign as of september. they snuck in donations later on closer to the election. wading into the political pool and for what? >> i'm not a big fan of ceos diving into this pool and for whatever reason you see a lot of these company give to the democratic party. you want to do it, it has to be dollar for dollar. i'm not a big fan of that either. i think you go about your business for shareholders. >> what do you think? >> i think he was saying if your -- >> here's the quote, work for
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trump i want to be clear, this behavior and those views have no place at fwrgrubhub. >> still i don't think he should have said it. i really do believe there should be a big separation between politics and employer and what about his customers. they order from grubhub too. a lot of republicans and democrats. that was a big mistake. also to shareholders. they may or may not agree with him so it's really out of line. i understand he probably felt like my employees need this. they probably skewed very millennial. >> i don't think he felt that way. i think he felt he needed it. it was a very selfish thing to do. >> new balance i view a tiny bit differently. it's issue specific. also i'm not sure what to make of it. they're a privately held company. so they have a little bit of
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different constituent sys they need to deal with or lack there of but the trade thing is very clear. >> when does it ever have -- >> if he left out worked for trump, it probably would have been a statement that would have gone on. >> it me ever has a play ever. you have to make that statement now. >> that was a political stateme statement. >> big valuation. big short interest and now another reason to lean into this thing. i don't think you can buy it until it trades down to 29.5 or $30 and that's a significant level from where we are now and that's probably 18 to 20% lower from where we are. this seems like a risk. a risk to the share price
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period. moving on, something else, mexico, the etf that tracks mexican stocks more than 17% since the trump win but global investor sees it as an opportunity. in the case of mexico it looks like a great opportunity to buy stocks and currency is down and chances are it may be a little weaker and this provides great opportunities for us because i think as the administration gets it's feet on the ground and realize what is happening in the world and become more realistic these markets will recover. >> now the interesting thing being that he pointed out the peso is down considerably and that should alleviate some pressure for companies in mexico that export outside of mexico. >> >> right but you wanted stability. i was short peso coming into the
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election. you had this massive 8% move and that's the problem. that's an enormous move for a currency. that being said i think at these levels you probably see the peso stabilize so i would agree at some point here there's probably a buy. i would not press my shorts. i did have some that i covered on mexico so at this point i would have a neutral to flat but there might be an opportunity. there might be. >> all right. >> quickly, we have to go to break break. a monster volume traded at 8 times normal volume. now valuations are reasonable. they have a huge mexican exposure so if you're looking to play it, the low made the other day. >> biotech having the best day ever. you're watching fast money on cnbc. first in business worldwide. in the meantime here is what else is coming up on fast. >> here are commodities and
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>> that was president ball ball in virginia earlier today honoring the men and women that served our country. veteran's day is a significant holiday to our next guest. he raises money to help disabled army rangers and the families of those that died. his son was killed in afghanistan and runs the lead the way charity and holds a special event this saturday. >> we'll see. >> it's clearly unfair. he's not here to defend himself. welcome back to the show. always great to see you. >> thank you. >> tell us about this event. how many people are signed up this year. >> guys it's been awesome so far. thank you for having us back and we're going to have this wonderful event. it's called jimmy's run and it will start on sunday. sign up will be at 9:45. we'll have about 7 or 750 running. it's to honor jimmy and the other gentlemen that we have
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lost. other rangers killed in action and for our veterans and after that we go up to the white house and we have a memorial kind of service for two rangers. chris for horn killed in october of '11 and poppy killed in '10. we fly in the families and have a special hour of special presentation. we present them a beautiful, beautiful portrait of their son. so it's a great patriotic day. it's awesome. bring the kids strollers. it's phenomenal. we'll have 60 degree weather and what better way to do it than on the west side highway overlooking the statue of liberty and for the folks that really care about what's going on with our rangers and our military it's something very special. >> especially poignant and you have run it a couple of years. >> i've run it a couple of years. it's a fantastic run. first of all you're doing something for a great
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organization that's helping people that sacrificed for us. that's us doing it a year or two ago. it's a fantastic organization. they do great things for the soldiers. it's a fun event too. it's a party out there. come out and run it if you're in new york. it's a fantastic time and i will be there and you'll probably see dan too. >> cheer everybody on. it's great to see you. thank you so must have. >> thank you. >> best of luck and the organization is called lead the way. >> all right. time now for the final trades let's go around the horn. >> nvidia 166% year to date. it started to hit not only gaming but a lot of other stuff. be a buyer. let it settle in. >> thank you to lead the way fund for what they do on this veteran's day. buy tesla. >> buy tesla. >> that's right. i am serious. >> karen. >> also want to thank the veterans that might be watching for your service. and me, i think monday morning
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s&p volatility. it's come way down. not that it can't go further. >> i coe he everything. mylan labs way too cheap. >> that does it for us on fast. auctions actions starts after this break. guy will stick around too. miles per hour. aveli0 to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. remember here at ally, nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. who's with me? i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. ♪ ♪
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