Skip to main content

tv   Mad Money  CNBC  November 15, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

6:00 pm
inflation. gold is your hedge. >> grasso? >> amazon. wait for a couple days more momentum. buy it. >> i'm melissa lee. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to creigh mere ka. let's try to make you money. my job is to educate and teach you, call me. or tweet me gently @jim cramer. can someone get me michael phelps please? we need him right here right now. we need him to navigate the cross currents just to get to the other side of the pool. we've gotten some unbelievable rip tides and they are up ending
6:01 pm
the averages, dow inching up 54 points setting an all-time high by the way. s&p advancing 7.5% after spending a lot of time -- and nasdaq 1.10%. big change of pace. what would a strong swimmer do here? that's what i'm trying to think. see, you can't outswim the currents. not even phelps could match some of these twists and turns. that doesn't mean we can't figure things out together. you and me. spot the patterns. come to the conclusions. conclusions that make sense given the fact that there are so many rotations going on even midday. and multiple winning ones of with' got to exploit together. we have to go back in history. let's start with what happened one week ago today. most traders and investors presumed because of the polling that hillary clinton would win the presidency. they made a host of big, big bets on hillary betting that she would win. mostly wagers that a clinton administration would be an extension of the obama administration. gridlock, not so hot growth.
6:02 pm
which somehow we were convinced we liked. in that situation you want to own companies that can grow faster than a stalled economy because the economy will stay stalled, right. not so fast they draw government scrutiny like banks that are doing too well despite regulation or drug companies that are putting up amazing numbers because of prous gouging. -- price gouging. who fit that narrow hillary blueprint? chiefly companies that surfed mobile, cloud, machine learning, artificial intelligence and iot known as internet of things. think about it, they don't need help from the government or a strong economy. they're going to make their numbers no matter what. that's what worked forever. these stocks don't have much of a presence in the dow jones industrial average. and they're only a small piece of the s&p 500. yet when it started looking like donald trump was going to win, the moment when the rust belt firewall was breached, we got a midnight roughly 7% decline by my calculation in the averages
6:03 pm
as the futures traded for the evening. and retrospect that overnight move was as wrong as the polls. because trump stood for something that was often obscured by the rhetoric. trump stood for being builder in chief! hey, that cost money. trump wants to cut taxes, not raise them. which means the government is going to need to borrow and borrow and also borrow. he's betting that economic growth can fix the budget ultimately but first it has to borrow like mad to pay for the plan. by 4:00 a.m. on election night the sea change started. i called sara and wolfe and said i'm more bullish than last night. we basically had an overnight bear market, the bear market with the brexit thing in the uk. many of you who watch the show only think about investing in stocks. the alternative is bonds, gold, real estate. mad bond money wouldn't last 11
6:04 pm
years. ever since the trump triumph it's the bonds that have called the tune of the market not the stocks. that's the real current. that's the one we need to identify and understand. you can't get michael phelps footage so we do it myself. i can do it backwards too. anyway, you see, interest rates have soared since the election because with trump in the white house and the republicans controlling congress there's a sense the government could start doing real spending and big league tax cutting. big league. but in order to fund all this they will need to borrow mun from the bond market. when you see more money being borrowed the economy is going to grow faster than otherwise. when you see someone on steroids or peds that ted to be better than the guys not on steroids or ped but they don't get to play if they get caught. this is different. just as important are the two offshoots of the growth, higher interest rates and inflation. the higher rates played right into the hands of the bank. we got a 14% rally in a group
6:05 pm
everyone presumed would be public enemy number one if hillary won the white house and the democrats got the senate! the rally after pausing the morning continued today. on top of that a host of industrials have been roaring. these stocks typically do well there a growth economy because they're year over year earnings growth will be explosive. much more explosive than social, mobile, cloud, io -- [ inaudible ] artificial and machine learning. same with retail tax cuts. mean more disposable income. but it isn't the potential earnings explosion people are focused on. it's the price of money or interest rates. we've gone from having a chance of a rate hike in september, to a certainty there will be multiple because of the potential for growth and possibility of inflation, oh, boy, inflation. >> sell sell sell. >> could come roaring back. just a second. because this is another rip tide. we don't have enough money coming into this market to keep fueling last week's rally if inflation is really going to rage so the money and the last
6:06 pm
couple days, until today, had to come out of another area to fuel all these winners and it had been coming out of facebook, amazon, netflix, alphabet, google and the like. everyone takes credit for fang. even the people at google call it fang. the main tide is a traditional rotation. the rip tied is a belief inflation could be so great it would erode the earnings power of the high growth companies. when you value tech i always tell you to look not near term, but in the out years. you have to look out a few years or you will miss the bigger picturep, for example, at the beginning of 2014 facebook stock was 53 and looked expensive on future earnings but the actual future earnings turned out to be stronger than anyone imagined so facebook stock had been cheaper than it appeared. now fast forward to facebook's last quarter. results were good. made cautious comments about the advertising loads. analysts concerned things might not be as rosy as they thought. none cut estimates but we didn't
6:07 pm
get the big number boost thing we got accustomed to. throw in the fact we expect pore inflation eroding facebook future earnings and you can understand why so many sold the stock to raise funds so they can buy what's rallying. free port. that kind of thing. anyway, with a couple exceptions like nvidia more on that amazing chipmaker later we've been enduring the rotation for a week now until today. today we actually had a rally in the bond market. and while it hardly undid the recent sell-off in the bonds and common rise in interest rates it gave you hope perhaps the inflation worries are overdone and on cue what came back? the social, mobile, cloud. the internet of things. fast growing machine learning artificial intelligence stocks. now, there was some selling going away interest that, a reversal and retailers home depot booked conservatively and selling in the drug stocks because they don't fit into a high or low growth scenario. but mostly there were buyers and then there were buyers and near the close more buyers. of all sorts of stocks.
6:08 pm
how about the rally in the oils. michael phelps where are you. freestyle. we have oil rally nearly 6% which looks like another wild tidal wave. remember the preelection days a sign that economy near term is looking good. today's running crude caused by rumors that opec will get its act together but because trump is not anti-fossil fuel makes investors feel better about the economy. suffice it to say today there were buyers who actually started getting their heads around something that i found reminiscent of the '80s a and '90s. maybe we will get some growth with some inflation yet not so much inflation that it will i could bash the stocks that need the good growth including the banks, the transports and the industrials. is that too poly annish? yes, there's no new money coming into the market but if enough are getting more bullish on stocks as an grass set class and enough match-up coming out of bonds in the stocks it's really a possibility. here's the bottom line. we have to stay close to equities but a true olympic swimmer knows the real tide from now on is in the bond market.
6:09 pm
and today that tide turned bullish for the post-election and preelection winners too. while the averages might not have told you this today i am telling you, that this was the most bullish day yet and the now incredibly faybled post-election trump rally. how about we go to ariel in new york. ariel? >> caller: hey, sxwrim, first wanted to thank you for being such a great role model to so many americans out there and you're an amazing role model for me. >> wow. thank you. geez, thank you. i wish my dad were watching. i like to hear that. thank you. thank you. >> caller: you're welcome, sir. my question for you today is regarding southwestern energy company ticker swn. they just got upgraded from to buy by the klr group and i was wondering what you think? >> here's what i want you -- ariel, thank you for the comments. i mean, sometimes you're doing a little soul searching kind of like that existential crisis
6:10 pm
thing really helped me. here's the problem with southwestern. another quick move down in nat gas, and then, i want you to pull the trigger but not until then. hey, i'm feeling good even though i hurt my leg, did this, that. anyway, where is michael phelps? can someone soum summon katie ledecky. money is flowing into the stocks favored by pre and post-election. this was the most bullish day yet of the trump rally. on mad tonight what's behind the fall in natural gas. i'll reveal the message buried in the charts and which company took a cue from beyonce and woke up flawless. i will reveal. say what you want about the election but it was undoubtedly a surprise. do data and politics mix after the result? i'm talking to a major player in the space to find out. don't miss my exclusive with talent. stick with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad money."
6:11 pm
follow @jim cramer on twitter. have a question tweet cramer #mad tweets send an e-mail to "mad money" at cnbc.com or give us a call, at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something, head to mad money.cnbc.com. .
6:12 pm
6:13 pm
6:14 pm
what the heck is going on with the price of natural gas? in the last month this energy source has been absolutely clobbered. one of the largest natural gases collapses in recent memory. a crash of epic proportions. that frankly really honestly has anyone talked about besides me? i have to get a better sense of this brutal decline and to do that because it is very clinical we needed to check in with the person who predicted well the latest down in the first place. tonight we're going off the charts with the help of carley garner a brilliant technician, commodity expert, co-founder of carly trading and my colleague at real money.com because exactly four weeks ago she told us natural gas was running out of steam and seemed ready for a major pullback. >> sell sell sell. >> i have to tell you rarely has
6:15 pm
any chartist on many years that we have done chart been so right so rapidly. even garner didn't expect the decline to be this fast. a month ago she told us natural gas rally would stall out and the decline might be around the mid $2 level. the december natural gas contract already dipped down to $2.54 per million british thermal units before bouncing in the last few days. pretty powerful rally sent the commodity 5%. where does garner come down on natural gas now it's been slammed down to her price target so quickly and seems like it's starting to recover. she believes natural gas market is in the pro stes of bottoming, not bottoming, but in the process. garner says not to get too enthusiastic any recovery from here will be complicated by a new concept we introduced i should have done a long time ago called contango. it's not like tango, it's contango. it's a natural force in all commodity markets with a normal
6:16 pm
price structure and the idea that spot price of a dmodsty will be cheaper than the first expiring fewer contract which will be cheaper than the next and so on. when a commodity is in contango it gets more expensive as you look in the future. a simple reason for this. not only the only reason. the cost of carrying the commodity, storing and buying insurance each future contract should get more pricey as you go out an additional month. december natural gas futures contract is currently trading near $2.75. but the january contract is near $2.95. that's contango. why does it matter? okay. the december natural gas futures did exactly what garner predicted. they got slammed down to $2.50. when people were talking about a new bull market in nat gas wrong. and they found a floor of support at 2.50 and bounced because of this phenomena where future natural gas is more expensive the january only made its low at 2.72. what's the problem? garner believes that natural gas can't bottom until it reaches that $2.50 level.
6:17 pm
which means the january nat gas contracts probably need to get hammered a little more before they can bottom. this will start to matter soon since the december contract expires next week at which point everybody will be focussing on the january. garner thinks the problem with the contango issue is when you thought natural gas was starting to bottom the futures contracts roll over and because the price one month out is higher than the spot price the commodity needs to go down again. okay. what about the seasonal tendencies? winter is around the corner. dark already and stuff. losing a minute of daylight a day. the weather is finally starting to get cold. doesn't that mean the price of natural gas will roar higher as people spend more money heating their homes? that's the conventional wisdom. and there are many natural gas bulls who believe that. but garner isn't one. the problem is that why you think that makes set sense for nat gas prices to rally the reality is most of the demand gets accounted in october and september before the cold
6:18 pm
weather sets in. a seasonal pattern where natural gas prices tend to remain weak to neutral from this point through the end of the year. according to more research the january natural gas futures contracts tend to lose value from november 24th through december 4th and this trade is so reliable that it is worked in 12 of the past 15 years. that confirms garners thesis that nat gas will go lower after all eyes turns to january. let's start with the -- start with the chart of january natural gas futures. floor support of $2.75 right there. weak seasonal tendencies we pointed out she does not expect that floor to hold and thinks that gets pierced. the fact is garner expects the bounce to be short lived the one we've had yesterday causing the natural gas futures to slide back towards the 2.50 and $2.65 range and come back here. plenty of signs that suggest the commodity is oversold. the rsi at the bottom.
6:19 pm
and the important momentum indicator at the bottom of the chart it's already dipped below 30. okay. and the -- remember we studied that a tool designed to measure whether security is overbought or oversold. we used one of williams' charts has dipped below 10 both of those are what we call oversold readings. they suggest natural gas could be due for more of a bounce in the one it's already had. in short, garner expects the commodity to be volatile and the bottoms around 2.50 and starts to bounce she sees the resistance at 3.02 to keep a lid on things for the second ceiling at 3.15. looking for not much of a move to the upside. so why don't we check the weekly chart and get a better perspective. again, here you can see natural gas has a clear floor support at 2.50. however the technical indicators garner would rely on for guidance are sending us mixed signals. the williams percentage are oscillator mildly oversold. relative strength index, mid
6:20 pm
range. neither over bought or oversold. one more piece of evidence supporting the view that natural gas could have another leg down, the one that nobody is looking for except for garner, let me tell you before things get better. she predicted the collapse. finally one more thing we need to keep track of over the price of natural gas. the u.s. dollar. check out the weekly chart of the dallas index which measures the strength of the green back versus a basket of foreign currencies. gas are priced in dollars a strong dollar tendings to be bad news for commodity prices. ever since trump won the u.s. dollar has roared higher, run almost 4 full points in less than a week which is a very big move, okay. especially when talking about a currency. trillions. this move is about the expectation of higher interest rates. this trump wants the government to borrow money to fund his tax cuts and infrastructure programs. garner thinks the currency markets are getting ahead of themselves, especially approaching the end of the year big corporations move the money oversees to cover expenses like
6:21 pm
bonuses and puts pressure on the dollar and expects the dollar index to run out of steam at 101.50 and can't rule out the possibility it gets squeezed to 105. if we get the usual seasonal usual seasonal end of year down draft in the dollar it should lift the price of natural gas and every other commodity too. i think that many people are taking trump seriously on the epa will be defanged and coal, the competitor in natural gas could make a comeback. i think coal is down not out. but it's only going to come back in fashion with the utilities if natural gas spikes tremendously, 3.50, $4. so many are retired coal plants and they retire because they field a clinton epa that might have been more hard on coal than the obama e pa. natural gas is plentiful you need multiple weeks of frigid air to change that maybe months. here's the bottom line. the charts by carley garner suggest natural gas prices might need to go lower before higher. she thinks we should be prepared
6:22 pm
for one more slide lower and then just maybe we can finally get the sustained rebound in this commodity that so many people were looking for but she knew was wrong. all right. much more "mad money" ahead including my take on the company that delivered the perfect quarter. who delivered it just ahead. one thing ge, ticket master and hilton have in common. i will tell you how it can help make you money off of it and you can. warren buffet's holding company sinking $1.3 billion into the four largest american airlines. what gives? i will tell you what the oracle of investing sees in the group or i think so. i suggest you stick with cramer. tokyo-style ramen noodles.
6:23 pm
fresh ingredients, step-by-step recipies, delivered to your door for less than $9 a meal. get $30 off your first delivery blueapron.com/cook.
6:24 pm
utility. back when i was managing money for wealthy individuals there was one semiconductor company that dominated the industry. one chipmaker that defined a generation. of course, intel.
6:25 pm
in those days intel was so strong and stock such a terrific performer is meat you a fortune if you held it throughout the 1990s. we all knew it. intel was inside. inside of the personal computer. the amazing device that democratized computing power. i mention this tech history because while intel itself has lost a bit of growth lost over the years, there is one newer semiconductor company, i say newer, doesn't mean it's not been around for a while, that's beginning to behave like the intel of old. in fact, i might go so far as to say that it is the intel of this generation. i'm talking about -- nvidia. the maker of powerful graphic chips for the pc that are beloved by gamers everywhere as well as perhaps more important supply and components for the connected car, internet of things, the data center and now the cloud and artificial intelligence. basically, nvidia's exposure to
6:26 pm
the hottest markets in tech and the business is on fire in a way i haven't seen with a semiconductor company since intel in the '90s. why am i salivating? why is the whole market salivating over nvidia. why did this have a move last week many people had never seen. let me start with this because we predibtsds it in our game plan. last weekend nvidia reported a stunning blowout quarter. one that was so good it sent the stock soaring from $67 to $87 in a single session. that's right. it rallied nearly 30% in one day. not because of a takeover. that's what you would expect, right. but because of fabulous results. i want to thank all of you kind people on twitter who follow me and said they bought nvidia off the game plan recommendation. you made my weekend. if you want to get into the nitty gritty of what made their quarter a great deep dive on the street.com, my portfolio manager, street's chief
6:27 pm
investment officer. he spent more time thinking about nvidia than anyone i know. let's say this quarter cements inis individual ya's -- nvidia's place in the tech pantheon. a company beating wall street sales and earnings estimates for ages and nvidia reported last week was a lot more than just a beat. not only did the company deliver $2 billion in sales, that's up 40% versus the previous quarter, 54% year over year, remember this company has been around, and a full 20% higher than what the annuals expected. that's right it beat by 0%. now this is no small cap stock. not only that it grew its gross margins what it makes after the cost of goods sold by 120 basis points to 59%. it earned 94 cents a share. you know what the street was looking for? 57. 94. in fact, nvidia earned near will as much in the past quarter as the entirely last year.
6:28 pm
nvidia's quarter from last thursday was the best of any company in 2016. again, nvidia isn't a loser company that suddenly imported out of the blue. it's been reporting beat after beat after beat. why nearly 30% rally because this quarter was so good, it precipitated a powerful chain reaction. the short sellers betting against nvidia as part of the newfound hatred of tech post-election were forced to cover their positions. they had to buy back their stock. that's how you cover a short. second the remaining bearish holdouts and there were some among the analyst community had no choice but to surrender and bye-bye bye. third lots of new buyers came out to ride the momentum as investors realized it mate be one of the great growth stories that doesn't need to be taken over to make a killing for its shareholders. i was going to come in and say fang, see you later netflix we're doing nvidia. maybe it would be like faang. i'll work on it. you know this company didding?
6:29 pm
amazing but the question remains what makes nvidia fabulous in the first place. how could it be this good? for starters nvidia is huge. most other chip makers so big that no single new product no matter how innovative is enough to move the needle or they suffer from a lack of differentiation where many are commodity plays and why so much consolidation in the group because many of the companies the only way to grow is merge. this is different they make p proprietary chips. they're expanding to new end markets. versus the old nvidia maker of high quality graphic processor for the pc gaming market. the gaming -- company gets two-thirds of sales from the gaming business and they continue to dominate when it comes to graphics chips making it by far the best product and generating tremendous growth. up 63% year over year in the recent quarter. we know that gaming is a powerful secular trend. more and more people prefer to stay at home and play on their computers and gamers are the one of the few groups that will pay
6:30 pm
up for expensive pc hardware. nvidia's competition is from amd but they've been losing market share because they have trouble keeping up with these guys. when you see strauss zelnick, what a stock that's been, come on our show and talk about say nba 2 k, it's not just the software geniuses that develop these concepts that are on display. nvidia's chips make everything more life like than anything out there. it's so fast. despite the growth it wasn't the graphic business that caused the buying frenzy last week. that was caused by the new land markets that they expanded into. the data center where the company has powerful chips combined best in class graphics with a compelling deep learning. machine learning platform. i keep telling you about artificial intelligence. that helped the company generate business from a bunch of major i.t. conglomerators which is how the business grew by 59% versus the previous quarter. game danger. a lot of nay sayers who didn't believe nvidia could take the
6:31 pm
data center by storm but that sequential growth will impress even the hardened skeptics. the analysts that questioned the stock's valuation have to recognize nvidia is moving into an end market and not just that wall street is reevaluating the can pepp a structural shift going on in the way the businesses view it. it's doing something no one else is taking graphics processor accelerated capabilities and applying them to various enterprise solutions and using them to process sets of data. the fact is the market for cloud based artificial intelligence powered by the best chips out there is vastly larger than the market for high quality graphics chips devoted to gaming. i haven't mentioned the connected car, autonomous driving. they have a strong relationship with tesla, what jack worked on, the autonomous driving index. how important that is. put it together and you have a semiconductor company in the process of transforming itself from a gaming play to a play on the data center, cloud, artificial intelligence, the
6:32 pm
sexiest areas of tech. they've done the innovation and the capabilities to take share within the enterprise at this point the only question is whether or not they can actually execute on this next leg of the growth strategy. and given their track record i wouldn't bet against these guys. after that spectacular quarter there's only one argument against the stock that's worth taking seriously and that is the question of valuation when the stock runs up as much as it did. it roared up 30% last friday, $87 and after brief pullback yesterday it bounce backed to 86 today. up here nvidia selling 30 times next year's earnings estimates, so it's obviously expensive however you got to remember this is a turbo charged growth stock like the intel of old. and that means it needs to grow into its valuations a terms we use on "mad money." look out to 2019 which what is you have to do they're only trading 27 times the numbers and consider it has 24% long-term growth rate i'm bettings the stock will grow into its valuation. the bottom line on one of the most exciting companies i follow. last thursday evening nvidia
6:33 pm
delivered the quarter to end all quarters of 2016 making the clear this company transformed into something more than a maker of graphics chips. it's now a hybrid play on graphics and cloud based artificial intelligence solutions for the enterprise. i think that makes nvidia the defining semiconductor story of this generation the intel of this generation. which i believe is why it has more room to run. although i, of course, after you get a munster rally like last week wouldn't you hope for a couple points of pull back before you pull the trigger. jim in virginia. jim. >> boo-yah. >> boo-yah. >> i would like to give you a thank you for ig nigts my interest in the stock market. >> i am thrilled for that. the goal of the show. sometimes i was talking to regina earlier and what is the essence. the essence is what you said. let's go to work. >>. >> caller: all right. brocade purchased on november 2nd and since that time there hasn't been much response in the stock either positive or next. it jumped at the end of october
6:34 pm
about 20% but that was before the acquisition. do you think the moment is due or lack of moment is due to a luke warm response if the shareholders or external forces such as the election? >> i think we started getting in this thing where we were selling the companies to fund other companies. this has become a source of funds. let me tell you something besides thanking you for saying those nice words i think i was talking about this with scott the other guy that works on my travel trust this one feels very right. it is done exactly what you just said which is nothing. it's resting. but when i work with karen cramer we used to talk about these ideas stuck in the mud for now and they are about to roll up. not down. pete in california, pete? >> caller: jim, how the hell are you? >> i am doing pretty good. not going to say perfect. because i twisted my ankle in a pothole because we have bad infrastructure on wall street but otherwise fine. probably a little too much information. right there, a pie stepped in it. i'm not in my car. what's up?
6:35 pm
>> trill yo, i enjoyed the mediocre rise up and unfortunately i'm enjoying the painful ride down. i want to see if you thought they had a second act in them? >> that's interesting you say that. we were just talking about it with my daughter where we had the ride up and threw on the way down on my wing tips. it's like a trill yo experience. i have to tell you i think twilo and okay shus can have second agents. i think it's a source of funds so, therefore, it's a source of throw up on your wing tips, this is that stupid pothole i'm talking about but i think twill yo has made its move down and ready to recharge. because this market likes to circle back to the good ones. if you want the best the transformation complete, the semiconductor stock of our generation, intel of not my generation, i'm the parents, the intel of your generation is nvidia and i hope you get a little bit of a pullback. i would like it. all right. much more "mad money" ahead. for two decades warren buffet
6:36 pm
has decrying airlines as terrible investments but is it time to bet big on the friendly skies in i'm taking a closer look. a company in one of the hottest areas of technology taking share from some of the biggest dogs in the business. i'll reveal it just ahead. of course, oil, [ inaudible ] stick with cramer. it's your tv, take it with you. with directv and at&t, watch all your live channels, on your devices, data-free. switch to directv and lock in your price for 2 years. offers starting at $50/month. from some of the biggest dogs in
6:37 pm
i am benedict arnold, the infamous traitor. and i know a thing or two about trading. so i trade with e*trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the... get off the computer traitor! i won't. (cannon sound)
6:38 pm
6:39 pm
okay. you wonder why i sometimes like to check in with ceos of privately held companies, the ones that can't trade because the start-ups of today often become the hot ipos of tomorrow. that's why i started this segment. take talend a software company that helps integrate data and applications in real time. crosses both traditional systems and modern cloud. talend's platform lets clients get a unary in fide view of how the business is doing and what the customers want and make it easier to use the analytics advances. i sat down with these guys a year ago when talend still privately held but at the end of july it became public at $18 a share, stock spiked 41%, to 25.50 on its first day of trading. since then it hasn't done much but trading $26 today. however, it's worth noting that the company reported a strong quarter last thursday and narrow
6:40 pm
than expected loss was impressive 40% revenue growth, robust guidance next quarter, one of the fastest growing companies publicly trading. what do we expect from the stock with mike, the ceo of talend and more about his company and how it's doing, welcome back to "mad money." good to see you, sir. >> thank you. >> we're going to presume first that people may not have watched the previous -- that there are some people who don't watch every single night. >> are you kidding me? shocking. >> maybe you can give me a data analysis of who the one person might be but you are next generation leader in big data but we need to know what that means in layman's terms where you fit in. >> you bet. right now companies are trying to do more and more decision making based on data not gut feel. and they're doing that because the world is becoming more and more digitized and more and more things measurable than they've ever been measured before with sensors and so on. to do that they need to pull the data together and they need to blend it together clean it up and then they use these so-called big data infrastructures. >> right. >> because they scale really
6:41 pm
well, run really fast and they can do that kind of analysis. >> but, i am -- i know the people who run ibm, i know the people who run oracle and run sap. those are big companies and say they do that. haw can little talend compete against big guys? >> in this data integration world the big companies are where almost all of the money is being spent, about $16 million. they've done a great job with traditional data. you have data in an ibm main frame or ibm data warehouse they do a nice job. if you're using the new data types the new spark and big data systems you're running it in the cloud, their systems haven't made the switch particularly well. that's where we play and that's where we're winning. >> give me an example one of the companies we've spent a lot of time my friend carl quintanilla interviewed jeff immelt general electric said they're a digitized industrial company. some of us find that hard to understand. not to believe. because they've done it. but to understand. where does talend play in the ge world? >> what ge is doing is trying to
6:42 pm
optize all of their industrial equipment. they don't sell just big pieces anymore. they sell brilliant equipment. for example, in their turbine business, big power turbines, what they can now do is take all the data from those bur tur bins, sensors that measure how fast they're spinning and temperature and vibration and heat and all those things take all the data off of that and they look to -- for patterns to say how can i optimize the sets and make that 1 or 2% more efficient. that's worth billions to their customers. the other thing they cap do is start to -- can do is start to predict. >> the predict system that jeff has talked about. >> called it predict. predict are there parts that are starting to wear out because if they can change those parts in a maintenance interval it's not a big deal. if your power plant goes down by surprise that is a big deal. so for them, this is a huge multibillion dollar initiative and giant benefit to the customers. >> i can't resist asking this, there were giant beats of data that were gathered ahead of the
6:43 pm
election and so many people, i don't want to single them out because so many were so wrong, but what happens if you have all those inputs and you still reach the wrong conclusion? >> you know there are two things there. the first one is, you have a lot of data that you now need to feed into a model. why? because you're sampling only a thousand people. now you have to say well, you know, there's 5% of this group of the population in my sample set but 10% in the population. you have to adjust that. now, you can adjust for the overall population but what everyone got wrong was who is going to turn out and vote. their model said they looked at who had voted in the last election -- >> right. their inputs were suspect. we don't know. talend wasn't necessarily higher. they should have. >> yeah. well they -- what they didn't know was, how excited and motivated the trump voters ended up being. they turned out more frequently than they thought they were going to. >> right. >> >> it was only a couple percent. off by about 2%. that 2% difference in the swings states caused an overwhelming
6:44 pm
swing. >> okay. let me ask you about steve sing. old friend of the show now with you guys but sold his company to sap. how do you work? sap is a competitor. sieve is fabulous. keep trying to get him back on the show because he taught us so much. he can straddle both? >> steve is terrific. we love having steve on the board. steve, you have to understand sap has a little tiny business on the side that competes with talend. >> okay. >> the vast majority of what sap does is complimentary to what we do and we work with a lot of sap customers. >> i'm glad you said that. like one of the things that we're not used to maybe because we're -- people watch the nfl and watch baseball, the idea that you would cooperate is fraternizing with the enemy. that's not the case with an sapp. >> with any large company like that whether sap or microsoft or oracle they will have a little piece of something that that competes with almost every software company in the world and you say i am going to put that aside and how can i find room to cooperate with the vast majority. there's a lot of partnership with all the big players.
6:45 pm
>> tell steve we said high. that's the ceo of talend which we showed you when it was private so you could get interested when it became public. maybe you got shares. i would hold on to the shares. "mad money" is back after the break.
6:46 pm
6:47 pm
6:48 pm
who is ceo of disney? >> bob iger. >> who is ceo of jpmorgan chase? >> jamie dimon. >> who is ceo of microsoft? >> [ inaudible ]. >> who is ceo of apple? >> [ inaudible ]. >> who is your favorite bald man that talks about stocks? >> jim cramer! >> high five. >> well, there is a kid with some sense. not to mention the bite size fruit. mikey in new york and son aiden
6:49 pm
for tweeting that @mad money on cnbc. the fact that families watch the show together is one over great joys something we are very proud of here. keep them coming. i want to see them. and now, it is time for the lightning rod. >> buy, sell, buy, sell. >> and then the lightning rod is over. are you ready? it's time for the lightning rod. steve in pennsylvania. steve! >> caller: hey, jim i have a question regarding buffalo wild wings. not long ago i purchased the shares about $136. since then, i noticed the stock has had about a 30-point up. should i [ inaudible ] profits here or hold what i have and where do you see the stock going from here? >> i like what the activists are saying and i like the company. i think the company will enjoy better times now post-election. that's what zoe's kitchen said. my answer is let it ride. scott in connecticut, scott? >> caller: hey thanks for taking my call. >> you're welcome. >> caller: spark energy, spke,
6:50 pm
should i buy, sell or hold for a long time? >> no, no, no. wait. we're going to buy if we're going to go down into the retail energy business, then we are going to go and stick with the chevron. i'm not kidding. we want that power. let's go to seth in arizona. seth? >> caller: hey, jim. i took a little trip to colorado and was looking out a hotel window and saw a building that said tall grass energy on it. >> yeah. that's a -- you know, that yield i think is, you know, predictable on that yield but i believe that yield is good and i know that company and like the company very much. to rod in kansas. rod? >> caller: hello? >> hey, rod, it's jim. >> caller: hello, mr. cramer. boo-yah. >> boo-yah. >> caller: thanks for the show. books, love what you do and watch you every day. >> thank you. >> caller: my question is -- you're welcome sir. thank you so much for what you do. my question is based on the fundamentals and the dividend of anna lee capital. >> no no. we need upside and we need a little more safety and we just -- i mean they've been
6:51 pm
sitting there forever it has the good yield but not for me. i don't reach for yield. that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning rod! >> the lightning round, is responsed -- sponsored by td ameritrade. warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500,
6:52 pm
and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.
6:53 pm
for decades anyone with half a brain stayed the heck away from the airline stocks. as warren buffet oracle of omaha wrote after exiting his $358 of u.s. airways in 1989 investors
6:54 pm
have poured their money into airlines and airline manufacturers for 100 years with terrible results. it's been a death trap for investors end quote. and that from a man who made money on that investment. now buffet has been a critic of the industry for as long as i can remember. in his 1996 investment letter he wrote i overlooked a crucial point u.s. air's revenues would feel the effects of an unregulated fiercely competitive market whereas its cost structure was a holdover from the days when regulations protected profits. over a decade later he noted there's been little competitive advantage in the airlines since the days of the wright brothers saying a quote again if a far sighted capitalist had been present at kitty hawk he would have done his investors a huge favor shooting orville down. what has changed that buffet owns 21.7 million shares of american airlines, 6.3 million shares of delta and 4.5 million shares of the united continental and undisclosed stake in southwest air including
6:55 pm
filtsings and homework by becky quick. a lot of things have changed. i want to point out many of the stock were down 20% not that long ago and have really soared. for example, united continental up 15% for the year, was trading at $39 in july 6th and rallied up to 62 before we read about buffet's position. today closed at 66, a 52-week high. you missed that move. or at least a lot of it. delta advanced from 33 six months ago to 47. america 25 to 44 up nearly 6% year to date. southwest from 35 to 46 up 7% for the year. once again standard warning you cannot necessarily piggyback off famous investors because by the time you see the filings it's too late to capture near the bottom. some of the stocks remain off their highs but want to point out you are not getting in at the level he did. back to my original question, what's changed that buffet a long-time hater of the airlines has bet on the entire group? first of all there have been big mergers like american with u.s. air. united with continental that have vastly reduced competition.
6:56 pm
that was the thing that buffet hated competition. it's now nonexistent on many of the once competitive routes. second, after brutal year where many new planes were added all the airlines are cutting back on their expansion plans for 2017. that lack of new capacity is critical to pricing going forward and it could lead up to earnings years that -- something that earnings will be up next year. and that makes this crazy the major airlines are valued on average 8 times next year's earnings estimates. traditionally companies that see their earnings up year over year would get higher multiples and i think next year will be better than this year. a dearth of narrow bodied planes for the manufactures like boeing with long lines to get them. those are the ones that make the airlines the most money. even if they want increased capacity it's not easy to do right now. fourth fuel the biggest variable. some jet fuel costs taking 25% of what these companies spend. perhaps buffet feels we're in an era of lower oil prices although oddly oil prices have led to higher stock prices for the
6:57 pm
airlines. as they signal further gains in economic activity. fuel does seem under control right now. worldwide travel growth will resume from a lull these are great investments. i know i've liked you all since oscar munoz joined the airline as ceo. i think it can go higher and i want a pullback though. the group represents value. the price wars are subsiding and the companies make oodles of cash the op sift of the situation when buffet invested previously. they've become quintessential warren buffet stocks. they were lower when they started. wait for a down day and pull the trigger. nothing tomorrow that will make the stocks run or the next day or after that. be patient. let the airline stocks come to you. and stick with cramer.
6:58 pm
6:59 pm
wild comeback today. always a bull market somewhere. i promise to find it for you on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow!
7:00 pm
jeff: my son, taylor. tonigtaylor: taylor.it"... lemonis: taylor. how are you? behind the father-son team behind the texas tea chain, the only thing brewing is trouble. how much do you owe? jeff: right around a million. lemonis: they've failed to fully think through the concept. there's no coffee, there's nothing to eat. are you guys trying to kill this store? they've left their franchisees to fend for themselves. ryan: just struggling to make a living down there. dawn: we've been subsidizing this business for over 18 months. lemonis: and with their relationship steeped in mistrust from the start... jeff: how can i believe anything that comes out of your mouth at this point? lemonis: ...tensions have come to a boil. taylor: i never felt like you're my father. jeff: i don't care if we're in front of that [bleep] camera. i won't be disrespected. i'll put you on your ass.

149 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on