tv Squawk Alley CNBC November 22, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST
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they issued a pretty upbeat forecast for 2017 fiscal year and announced the sale of its farmer john unit to cisco foods. spam is going strong. that does it for "squawk on the street." dow is trading just below that key 19,000 level we hit earlier. back to you, carl. >> thank you so much. at amazon headquarters out west it's 9:8:00 am out west an it's 11:00 am on wall street. "squawk alley" is live.
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kayla tausche. goldman sachs internet analyst. great to have you back. >> thanks. >> along with our own mike santoli as we watch the dow tick above 19,000 for the first time. yesterday, of course, all four major indexes hit closing and intraday highs. what does this all mean? >> the path of least resistance is higher? this is how the market trades literally when the paft path of least resistance is higher. it's drifting higher. i think that happens around round numbers. i look at dow 19,000, all the caveats about how it's only 30 stocks, 1,000 points on the dow is literally not what it used to be. the most impressive thing was it was at 15,5 in february. we ft. first hit 18,000 at the
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end of december 2014. so over two years, you're up about 5.5%, point to point. why is that? corporate earnings flattened out for two years, going on three years. now you're getting more of an energetic push on this reflation period. >> fund futures hit 100.2% for december. now the market is coming to grips with the fact we will get a rate hike in december and market could keep going up when we do. >> absolutely. i do think -- you know, there's this old saying i like to point to. the market never discounts the same news twice. this december's rate hike is not the same as last december's. the market can handle these small increments. the way it's trading since the election and even a little before the election, everything you're hopeful about is right in front of us. we can pencil it in. we have pro-growth policies,
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fiscal spending, a fred that gos slow. rates maybe having to go higher than we expect or faster than we expect. maybe it's the fact that we don't necessarily get all those policies in place. >> there's a lot of votes in europe to worry about. france, italy. the actual implementation of brexit. that's already been voted on. and then the new congress, when that comes in, seeing what they can actually get done, whether they decide to go bipartisan or full republican, which you would expect since they control both houses. how far into the first quarter do we need to get before perhaps people start to rethink these levels? >> what's the record for the longest honeymoon? that's what we might be pushing right now. you can't just extrapolate what we've been doing right here. if we keep barreling higher like this on not really very much news you're going to start to hear people saying we're stealing from next year's gains. last two januarys were bad. you kind of peaked at the end of december and you fell. and you'll have that muscle memory taking shape again.
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>> certainly one sector to watch will be tech. names like amazon, facebook, of course. google. heath terry covers the space for goldman sachs. we saw a huge period where large cap tech was not in favor. why is that? is it changing? >> largely saw rotation. large cap tech was widely owned across the market. at least in the first few days after the election, people wanted to own other things, fran structure, financials. so that was the easiest place to sell. >> and now? >> now i think you're seeing it come back. we already see mean reversion around big names like this. people came to the realization there are opportunities in those names. largely backed by strong consumers, which continue to work in their favor, particularly names like amazon, netflix. you look at the momentum that google and facebook have with advertisers as they come out of what had been this period of
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uncertainty. they can get return with those two. >> talk about amazon going into black friday. there is always this halo around the company going into the holidays until investors see what margins look like in january and they realize how much the company had to spend to get all those packages to everybody. reports of pilots going on strike to protest a staffing shortage there. are we going to run into the same issues with amazon that we did last year? >> if anything they prepped this year better than they did last year. they got really surprised by the demand that there was from third party retailers to use their fulfillment system to get things to consumers during the holidays. they took steps at the beginning of september to start pulling a lot of that third party inventory and get ready ahead of the holiday season. build out the infrastructure that they need. and that ultimately ends up to pretty meaningful share gains for them. when it comes to tight holiday days during the end of the season when you're trying to get those last-minute gifts, amazon
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is the only one you can rely on. >> how high are expectations for not just amazon but the rest of the sector? how rough is it going to be to meet that when we start seeing the numbers in jn for how the holiday sales actually went? >> expectations are pretty high. positive signals out of retail the last few weeks. certainly the third party companies that track online sales have generally been pretty upbeat. it's a high bar. that's always what you have to worry about with these companies that execute as well as amazon does. we tend to get a little bit ahead of ourselves. we're not necessarily where amazon is valued right now. but the rally at the end of the year that rick was talking about, we could eventually get there. >> do facebook and twitter have a problem when you comingle fake news, bots and abuse material to usage? >> it doesn't seem to be material to use. it is a problem and certainly a kind of thing that advertisers worry about.
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it's easy to want to advertise on television. you know the environment you're in. you hear these things about facebook and twitter having these kind of issues you worry about where your brand will be run up against. they do have to address this. i don't think it's a problem for engagement. it could be something that advertisers have to think about. >> you put out a note on ai, which gets mentioned increasingly, at least on this show. what's the thesis and the takeaway? >> the thesis for us is pretty simple. this is the apex technology of the information age. this is as big as it gets. artificial intelligence. my colleague and i spent a lot of time over the last year of digging in to intra- capitalists to get a sense of sort of where this is going. what you hear is this cuts across everything. this is about making capital and labor significantly more efficient than it has been. you talk to economists like goldman, they'll tell you this productivity stall we've been in
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this past decade, there's potential to pull us out of that. >> you look at agriculture. factories and farms have already become more productive. what they've lost is jobs. how many more jobs do you think the u.s. economy could lose when this actually comes to bear? >> i think if you look at the way we've been through these technology cycles before, we lose them in some places and pick them up in others. u.s. economy is incredibly good at creating new jobs around these technologies. as factories and firms get more efficient -- indeed, ai is white collar that gets more efficient, doctors, lawyers, research analysts, that get more efficient through the use of ai. we'll have to see where the new jobs around this get created. i was talking to a venture capitalist who said the data sciences class at stanford has gone from 40 students ten years ago to 500 students this
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semester. >> while that's important i worry about the expectations level on artificial intelligence for this reason. it's not a product like search, like smart phones, like a social network, even like infrastructure has a service or software has a service. it's an enabling technology. is it clear yet whether this makes all those things i just mentioned a bit better and adds margin to those companies or does it create whole new companies, whole new industries? it doesn't seem clear to me yet. >> you're absolutely right. this is an enabling technology. somebody else made the comparison that this is electricity. it makes everything a little bit better. but in the same way that those enabling technologies create new companies, we think that's going to be the case for ai. any time compute has to face a big, new workload -- i'm stealing this comparison from a private company we've spoken with recently. any time it has to do with a big, new workload you see new companies created out of it.
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you see new big hardware companies created out of it. >> when vr and ar started getting talked about, it was about which sector or industry would lead it through the early innings, right? gaming, pornography, whatever. is there something like that for ai? >> it cuts through everything. one of the places we see it used the most is energy. ten years ago a report called ai and the oil field and has been executing on that sense. energy analyst has written on this extensively in the report we published. i don't know that necessarily there's one interest. every industry, companies in those risk being left behind. >> ge's mining machines out in san francisco getting your wind turbine to operate more efficient through ai is a real deal. >> it is. >> thanks for coming in.
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>> thanks for having me. >> heath terry. donald trump's son-in-law, jared kushner. a lot more from post nine in a moment. there are many things you don't want in industrial strength- like cologne. morning! but there's one thing you do. (gags) it's called predix from ge. the cloud-based development platform that's industrial-strength strength! [and her new business: i do, to jeanetgo. jeanette was excellent at marrying people. but had trouble getting paid. not a good time, jeanette.
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avenue and invited guests coming in and out of trump tower. eamon javers is there for us. >> reporter: mike pence, his motorcade arrived. he is, of course, running the transition. he is in trump tower, presumably meeting with donald trump and the rest of the transition staff upstairs. we saw rudy giuliani come by. he has been mentioned as a possible appointment for a whole range of different cabinet offices, also possibly the new director of national intelligence. rudy giuliani was faced with a number of questions. he did come over and talk to the reporters. he didn't have much in the way of answers. here is what he said. >> i'm not going to discuss what i'm interested in or what the president-elect is thinking and mulling over. that's not fair. that's not the right way to do it. this has to be done privately. i don't mean just with regard to me but with regard to everyone else. >> reporter: and, carl, i can tell you that former new york governor eliot spitzer is
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nearby. he just came over to our camera position and asked if the dow was going to stay over 19,000. i told him i have no idea. we also asked him what he made of all this. he said, look, my office is right here. what do you think i make of it? but he didn't want to come on tv and did not go into trump tower. carl? >> that's a good one, eamon. thank you very much. eamon javers. we continue to await on news of donald trump's cabinet members. jared kushner has the president-elect's ear. steven bartoni joins us at post nine. >> thanks for having me. this is great. >> i can't get over eric schmidt's quote, jared kushner is the biggest surprise. best i can tell, he ran the campaign and essentially with no resources. >> i talked to eric schmidt, that turned the story. gop insiders, party insiders.
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when i talked to eric schmidt, such a democratic supporter, he built that machine for jared. built that machine for hillary to say these guys came in, made up the rules as they went along. it's like a small start-up disrupting a professional, richer, bigger company. such a tech story. >> what in kushner's background gave anybody a clue that he was capable of this? >> i think he has no background was his advantage. he said i don't know how i'm supposed to do this we're going to build it from scratch. no one has seen a candidate like donald trump with a message like he does. they built a machine just for donald trump. they made the trump playbook as they went along. >> jared kushner is sitting at the intersection of what some worry is the conflict of interest. is he trump administration or is he trump business? >> right now he's on the -- an adviser. no one knows what's going to happen. there are laws that might stop t doesn't matter if he's paid or
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not. doesn't matter if he's a title. he will always have trump's ear. we howe that works, we'll see. he has a very successful business. so does trump. i don't think they want to muddy the waters intentionally to mess things up. it's going great. why do anything that might screw it up? >> kushner is positioned to be a power broker of the highest order for at least four years. what he will do with that power is anyone's guess. >> exactly. >> take a guess. do you think that he wants a cabinet position? do you think he wants to be an official adviser to the president-elect? >> i'm not sure they can. they have those nepitism laws. they worked so hard to get elected, they're still sorting this out right now. i'm not sure he knows. it depends on his family, his business. nobody knows, including him, i think. >> you make the point that he is so understated, compared to his father-in-law. >> yes. >> do you get the sense that he tries to walk trump back from the bombastic rhetoric that he
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has demonstrated on the campaign trail or on twitter today, obviously? >> well, it's interesting. i spoke to a lot of people, including henry kissinger and eric schmidt and peter thiel who said anyone who is worried about the trump administration, having jared kushner in that room should make them feel calmer because he's even keeled, centralist. >> in the middle of the campaign, he came to trump's aide. since then he hasn't. >> only time since this story that he commented on politics at all. his stance is, listen, i know donald. i trust him. and ignore what other people are saying i think he's going to do the right thing. you know donald, i know donald. that's what he feels is right right now. >> what do you make of this flip in the model that traditionally had been the president deploys surrogates like a vice president to be the attack dog, out there, bombastic, say things that a
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president or president-elect wouldn't say? in this case, you have these advisers with a very sober carriage saying, i know who the president-elect really is. don't pay any attention to what he's actually tweeting on twitter. here is how it's going to be. is this going to continue, do you think, based on the conversations with jared kushner or are there changes afoot? >> in terms of trump, twitter? >> in terms of having these people who are a little bit more buttoned down. >> yes. >> respectable in the way that they present themselves versus the president-elect himself being very bombastic and whipping up his base. >> i love his strategy. allegedly, they took his phone way during the campaign at some point because he was tweeting so much. as we've seen with hamilton and other stuff, he is still tweeting. i don't think they control him or want to control him. they're letting donald be donald. that was the old line, right? >> right. >> when he takes office we'll see what happens. when you're the actual president versus the president-elect. that yet remains to be seen.
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>> fascinating to watch. and it's really an important read. >> thank you so much. thanks for having me on. >> steve bertoli joining us from forbes. markets trading at record highs. the dow eight points below that 19,000 level. s&p at 21.99. a check on europe and the overseas close. also in the fwregreen. more "squawk alley" straight ahead. eligibility? you may think you can put off checking out your medicare options until you're sixty-five, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you. that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company come in. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans,
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major averages in the green this morning points shy of the record ties hit early this morning. on the move with the major movers. >> in that two hours since trading started we have seen a little bit of momentum come out of the stock market. we aren't going gang busters higher to begin with. we did cross that 19,000 mark. we're floating back down to the worst levels so far. we have winners and losers to
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talk about, driving the gains. inc, post six. they make prices for boeing. boeing is one of the biggest point contributors to the dow's gained so far today. positive nature here. boeing certainly contributing to that. we're going to watch those shares as well. i'm going to swing you back around here to citadel post five. two stocks. first of all, johnson & johnson, biggest detractor in terms of points. so the biggest drag so far. and then one more name to mention here. united health group. the reason i put this up here, it's one of the better performers so far today. one of the biggest point contributors. it's also the best performing dow component since the dow first hit 18,000. that was just shy of christmas back in 2014. united health, one to watch there as well. overall, traders watching today. not a lot of headlines. still, volumes will be scarce. we'll see if we can get some momentum. we're at the worst level so far
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today. still up by 40 points on the dow. back to you. >> counting down to the close in the uk and across europe. lot of green overseas as well. let's get to seema mody a little bit earlier than usual. seema? >> stocks in europe continue their post u.s. election rally. there's new data showing that eurozone consumer confidence reaching its highest level of the year, despite those political risks looming. keep in mind, though, european stocks trading 18% below their all-time high hit back in april 2015. let's focus on today. miners getting a lift from higher copper and oil prices. anglo-american in the green, among the biggest gainers. euro has resumed its trend against the dollar. a weaker currency is good for those exporters, particularly in the luxury sector.
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swatch and richemont are falling as swiss watch exports accelerating in the month of october as the asian consumer continues to pull back. shipments to hong kong down nearly 22%. it is a troubling sign ahead of the all-important holiday season. but will the recent weakness in the euro help some of these luxury players? that's a question. if we switch folk to us bond, some action there as well. check out the widening spread between the u.s. tenure and the german bond yield, further reinforcing this view of divergence as we potentially expect a rate hike in september. turkish lira continues to trade at record lows around this uncertainty of trump's trade policies. emerging markets, including
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turkey, also dealing with its own political distress. this comes ahead of the turkish central bank meeting thursday, where now many economists expect some type of bold action, given the challenges that turkey is experiencing. john, back to you. >> all right. thank you, seema. still to come, historic day on wall street with the dow breaking 19,000 for the first time ever. we're going to take a technical look at where we likely go from here next. later, linkedin named it one of the most creative job seekers. gth- (smash!) like an administrative assistant. your 3 o'clock is here. but there's one thing you do. it's called predix from ge. the cloud-based development platform that's industrial-strength strength!
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good morning. i'm sue herrera. travelers heading to europe are being warned of an increased risk of terrorism especially around the holiday season. americans are asked to avoid large crowds and religious sites and say attack koss come with little or no warning. education secretary is asking schools that still allow student hitting and paddling to stop that practice. in a letter released today john king says these forms of corporal punishment should be replaced with supportive disciplinary measures which work better against bad behavior. sources tell nbc news kanye west is under observation at a los angeles hospital for his own health and safety. the move follows a week of
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bizarre on-stage incidents in which the rapper went off on tangents about beyonce and jay-z. all remaining tour dates have been canceled. releasing this video of a madison avenue jewelry heist. suspected thieves made off with more than $300,000 in watches. they have not been caught. luckily, nobody was hurt in that robbery attempt. and that is the cnbc update this hour. kayla, back to you. >> thank you, sue. dow touching 19,000, s&p 500 and the nasdaq touching record highs. good time to check market technicals. to play some picksry, we have katie stockton, a strategist at bta. thanks for coming in. >> thank you. >> four major market gauges, all three major averages and the rusell closing at a record.
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how significant is that? >> as a technician it's a big deal. new highs means there's no more resistance left on the charts. you have momentum that's typically generated by these kind of breakouts and the s&p 500 now that it's above the august high, you can arrive at a measured move projection that assumes the trajectory, the same trend, of about 22,85 even before year end. >> how much would the s&p have beyond that? >> 2400 is my target right now for the first quarter next year based on the breakout we saw over the summer months from a long-term trading ring. >> russell as something of a market, up 41% since then. are we done? >> i don't think so. the russell 2000 has broken out
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on momentum but more importantly improved market breadth. russell 2000 has far more stocks in its index. we've seen that breakout. it's a bigger breakout because it's above a short term resistance level and a long-term resistance level. >> currencies. we have talk of fiscal stimulus that is leading the dollar index to new highs as well. ten days in the green for the dollar index. in europe, you have continued austerity. how do currencies behave from a technical perspective from here? >> it's been wild. in the currency front as well. dollar index has cleared some major resistance. now that breakout is pending confirmation. we need to see it sit up there for more than just a week to confirm that breakout. that would be a big deal, suggesting that euro continues to weaken, for one. >> you see the dollar continue to strengthen, would you immediately price weakness into industrials, so global in nature? >> industrials act very well on back of the election, as you can imagine. the relative strength behind
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them is juch immense. it's the third best performing sector since the election behind financials and consumer discretionary. that's driven a breakout in the benchmarks like the industrial spider. >> what levels are you watching in industrials especially because we haven't had anything more than just policy talk. we have no proposals. we still have 60 days before inauguration. a lot can happen between then and now. >> definitely is. momentum can just keep going without regard to all of that. so the breakout does tend to foster some momentum. and the relative strength is really there. so i would trade it. >> what about breadth in tech? this is a tech show. qs have surpassed their most recent high. breakout is across the board. it's broad based. >> that's true. so they've sort of lost their leadership strong hold. we've seen small and mid still retain that trend versus the broader markets. breadth behind the technology
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sector has expanded and grown to the point i think it's very sustainable. >> if you were a viewer at home and want to put your money to work in one of the major averages based object technicals, which is the best bet right now? >> small and mid cap like the russell 2000 index would be the best bet based on the breakout relative to the broader indices. >> great to see you. >> you, too. >> important conversation. katie stockton of btig. carl over to you. new breakthroughs in the tech elites plan to try to live forever. details on that coming up. rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> i'm watching the ten-year consolidate a bit. more than that, i'm watching the reaction to existing home sales. that was an october number. we could look when the contracts were signed. all things being equal that was a powerful number. biggest number since february '07. what does it mean? we'll talk about it, after the break.
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>> good morning, carl. i was as shocked as everybody else was to see october existing home sales but maybe for different reasons. >> i'll show you a chart going back earlier than that. the all-time high for existing home sales was in 2005, september, i believe. it was 7.25 million. of course, all these numbers are seasonally adjusted and analyzed. we're getting closer to that all-time record. good distance away if you think about percentages. i am not surprised. these signings probably ended around september. the issue is rates, if you look at them a year ago, they're probably, what, 3.5%, now getting close to or at 4%. i understand that. if you look at a medium home price in this country, 188,000-ish and consider what
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the monthly payment differentials are, they're big but not huge. i look at people's monthly payments for cell phones, wireless, tv, all the other issues, you know, you're on equal footing there. and i think there's a priority to owning a house. so i'm mot so sure that rates moving up, even if they move up to 4.5% will be a killer there. matter of fact i'll go the other way. you have to be under a rock not to think that we are close to and maybe on the precip oches o housing has always been an important part of interest rates and how it comingles with rates in the ten-year sector, depending on the duration of mortgages and duration of a ten-year. let's say they correlate highly. i call at the sit on the fence crowd. i think many understand that
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rates moving up is an inevitable issue. it's how much and how quickly. i think it could actually be a motivating factor for first-time home buyers or even upscaling with regard to housing. i'm not sure i buy into it. do i have good reasons for this? i use very simple things in life. the main point of policy isn't the issue that actually worked. i'll tell you what, i don't think there's been as much improvement in housing when you consider that rates at one point in a ten-year note were under 150. what's the real reason? availability of credit, competition and making mortgages. all things that i think will change for the positive. quickly, let's switch gears here. a chart of tens since year-end last year when we close at 227 and a chart only month to date, what you will find is we're finally getting consolidation. it shouldn't be a surprise. 227 is going to be an area we probably will use as a pivot. don't lose sight of that. ira harrison and i disagreed today. he thinks the fed may wait.
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inflation really run more and we've listened to them talk about things like changing their very arbitrary target from 2% to 3%. reading in between the lines, ira thinks it makes all the debt that the world has in the country in particular a lot cheaper. i don't know how it turns out. i will tell you this. there's a lot more gaming going on, on the fed, not raising rates than i ever would have considered looking at the markets and talking to my sources. feta com plea. back to you. we're counting down to black friday with the founder of minted, start-up linkedin once called the most demand start-up for job seekers. there are many things you don't want in industrial strength- like coffee. but there's one thing you do. you guys okay?! it's called predix from ge. the cloud-based development platform that's industrial-strength strength!
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keeping the power lines clear,my job to protect public safety, while also protecting the environment. the natural world is a beautiful thing, the work that we do helps us protect it. public education is definitely a big part of our job, to teach our customers about the best type of trees to plant around the power lines.
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we want to keep the power on for our customers. we want to keep our community safe. this is our community, this is where we live. we need to make sure that we have a beautiful place for our children to live. together, we're building a better california. the holiday season is almost here. sending holiday greetings and seeing what they prefer. miriam mathis is the founder and ceo of minted and sits on the board of yelp and joins us from one market in san francisco. good morning. >> good morning. >> so, miriam, i want to ask about the role of crowd sourcing now that it's been as long as it's been, decade plus. it seems like the older model
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crowd sourcing, threadless and t-shirt sort of ran its course. how do users submitted designs now play out for a business like minted? >> well, i think one of the key differences now is that the artists on minted, at least in our model, give each other feedback and help improve the designs and really -- improve the designs round after round before the voting in our design competitions begins. i would call it almost like crowd production versus pure crowd sourcing. people are collaborating to produce better product designs on our site. everything is via competitions. the crowd votes to tell us what to sell. that turns into card, art, fabrics and home decor on the site. >> sort of a mix of curation and crowd sourcing. how do you expect that to play out in other sites, the yikes of yelp, criticized for maybe all members of the crowd's opinions being weighted equally?
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they give one star to a restaurant that maybe doesn't deserve it. is there some change in weighting, in the way that we do reviews and crowd sourcing that you think is coming more broadly? >> i would say reflecting on how we have approached it, yes. we do weight votes differently. we actually take a look, for example, at voters or consumers who we think are more predictive of sales and we actually weight them differently. so, for example, if you have bought a card from minted before, you are likely a more predictive voter on our site. we'll weight you differently. on minted at least. maybe this isn't indicative of future models. not all votes are equal. it depends if you're voting in a wedding invitation challenge, wall art challenge, holiday card challenge. different voters will have different skills in being able to predict and pick best sellers. >> miriam, customers this week especially are on the hunt for
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deals. i'm wondering how you decide what a digital good or paper good -- minted offers paper stationary as well, should be priced at. you're offering a promotion of 50% off. and then shutterfly, depending on the size of your order, up to 50% off. how do you compete? how do you price? >> yeah. i mean, i think for us, we really offer and try to maintain the best quality paper, the thickest paper, the best printing quality, the most unique and fresh designs and also a lot of freebies that we built into the experience, for example, free custom envelopes. bare bone and discount heavily. others will offer and discount at least on the surface level a little bit less. if you take it all together you do a lot of math which a lot of consumers may not want to do.
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if you do the math they end up fairly similar at the end of the day. minted has not moved into our black friday offer period yet. that actually starts early, which starts tomorrow. and at that point, there will be significant and really fun discounts for people to discover tomorrow. >> all right. like black wednesday. even that is moving earlier and earlier. question about your plans for minted. if i'm counting correctly, you're coming up on a ten-year anniversary. you're not public at this point. you raised quite a bit of money. how are you looking at the funding environment? will you need to raise more money are you interested in going public or is private the right position for a company like yours? >> i think everything is in its due course of time. the way to look at the public market is another financing, another capital raising event versus the ultimate sort of destination. i think we would do it if and when it made sense. at this point, minted is doing
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well financially. so we're not looking to raise. but, you know, we also track the market carefully. and we look when capital is cheap, when capital is expensive. we toned take advantage of those moments when the markets are in you are on favor. right now we're in a great position. we don't need to raise. the business model is actually very, very healthy and in a good profitable one, so it's not an emergency for us. >> all right. well, happy holidays, and i'm sure it will be for you as this is a big season for you. the founder and ceo of minted. >> thank you. >> the secrets behind silicon valley's plan to live forever and as we take a break, take a look at the s&p 500. having cracked 2,200 earlier this morning.
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>> dout hitting 19,000 this morning. where does it go next? we talked about the technicals earlier, but we have information on what stocks do after hitting psychological levels. >> that's right, kayla. when you go back over 30 years and you look at what happens at these triple zero barriers -- 2,000, 3,000, 4,000, all the way up to 18,000 -- what we have seen is almost very clearly this pattern where the dow will outperform the s&p 500. take a look at one week returns, one month returns, one quarter returns. in all those cases the dow on average is positive and it beats the overall market. risk adjusted, beta adjusted. however you look at it, it matters. you look at an example of one month returns. 13 of the 17 times. the dow beats the s&p 500. you go back to 2007, the dow hit 13,000, and then in the next quarter it beat the overall market by about 4%. if we can close above 19,000, that's the key. you got to close them because
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that proves that you have broken through that resistance, and think about the ceiling. everyone is pushing up against it. once you break through that ceiling, it becomes support, and then it can really get a lot more momentum because of these discussions. people like you and me, we're talking about it. there's a lot of psychological, mental, optical effects. people jump on board. they want to push the market higher. watch from that close above triple zeros. back to you, kayla. >> all right. thanks so much, eric. certainly very interesting as we watch for the next levels where we'll go to. >> meanwhile, newborns in the u.s. are now expected to live until they're 79, but some working in tech plan on living a lot longer, and they're experimenting with anti-aging drugs and therapies to reach that goal. our josh lipton is in san francisco with that fascinating story. hey, josh. >> well, carl, tech entrepreneurs are used to pushing the edge of the envelope, and thousaey are takin the ultimate nfl. using their millions to try to ek tend their lives.
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dr. phillip miller says aging is a treatable medical condition. >> you can live until you're the 90 or 93, but are you going to be happy? are you going to be healthy? i'm interested in how to increase our health span, which is the amount of time we remain healthy. through all the programs and modulations that we do, we can achieve that. >> now, for $1,000 dr. miller performs an initial exam, including blood naltsz aanalysi hormone levels. he prescribes supplements, including vitamin k and high dose anti-oxidants, and he has individualized doses of testosterone. respected vc's are some of his patients. another patient of dr. miller is tech entrepreneur dave asprey, the creator of bulletproof coffee.
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e he uses supplements that he says protect against cognitive decline. he also had his own stem cells injected into his brain. >> the last thing you want to be is old and have a healthy body and a mind that doesn't work. i do everything i can to support my brain. >> there are real risks to these treatments. dr. john newman is a professor of geriatrics at the university of california san francisco. he says testosterone replacement therapy can lead to an increased risk of heart attacks and strokes. dr. newman's advice for living a long and healthy life? be active, stay connected with people, and eat responsibly. guys, back to you. >> yeah. josh, you talk to a lot of doctors, which is great. say dr. miller, do you know how old he is? if he is 85 or older, i'm going to feel a lot better about those treatments of his. >> i actually don't know how old dr. miller is, john. he has been in this practice for a long time.
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he has been an anti-aging specialist for a long time. now, he argues because he does this complex work, blood nalt analysis and hormone levels, he has object i biomarkers to use to see if his treatments are really working. he does also on occasion prescribe more controversial therapies. for example, growth hormone as well. that is increasingly popular. human growth hormone, according to the estimates i've seen, they're about 30,000 americans now every year taking hgh specifically for anti-aging. guys. >> well, maybe it will become more polite to ask someone's age when this technology takes ahold. peter thiel was one of the highest profile prop ownents of the anti-aging movement, but he has called it a fringe interest. is it becoming more widespread? >> well, certainly in his circle there are many of tech's elites that are very interested, kayla, in it is. you know, through his foundation.
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oracle's larry ellison has committed $400,000 to anti-aging research. you mentioned peter thiel and alphabet ceo larry paige in 2013, remember, he announced calico, secretive companies related on aging interests. they're interested in anti-aging drugs. >> i don't think there's ever been a more appropriate time to use that cliche for the end of a segment. time will tell. in this case, it really will. see if these really work. >> the jury is still out. way out. >> hopefully way out. >> in this environment who wants to live longer? i'm not sure. time machines are more valuable. by the way, stocks continue to be very interesting. dollar tree, that 10% rise pretty much intact. signet, gap and campbell and lowe's and hormel. cramer said the makeup of some of the winners today are the slow growth staples that were ignored in the days immediately
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following the election. >> we'll see how long that trend can last. you do have a couple of earnings names. palo alto networks reporting profit 55 cents a share. that was a beat. they also raised current quarter guidance despite the fact it was a slower quarter than its previous quarters. >> let's see what happens in the afternoon session. let's get over to headquarters and the half. ♪ >> our top trade this hour, a new record for stocks as the trump rally shows no signs of slowing down. with us for the hour, today stephanie link, josh brown, john najarian, barbara, senior portfolio manager with bridgewealth partners. all three major averages hitting new milestones. it is the small caps stealing the show. now going for 13 straight days of gains. that's the best run since 1996. josh, it is hard to overstate what's happening with the russell in this 13-day run. oh, by the way, the dow crosses
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