right now. ♪ live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and melissa lee. our guest host, peter bokvart from the lindsey group and a cnbc contributor. look at u.s. equity futures at this hour. let's tell you what's going on now. dow looks to open off 33 points down, s&p 500 looking to open down as well, off about six points and the nasdaq off about, we'll call it 11 points after a sort of holiday weekend. the markets were open on friday, of course. and overnight in asia, let's take a look at what happened over there. hang seng up a little bit, shanghai up a little bit, and the nikkei off but only marginally. and finally, a quick look at european equities. you're looking at red arrows across the board, but again, i'll call it marginal for now.

a check on the yields on the ten-year right now. you're looking at the 30-year bond, 2.985%. want to get a mortgage right now? what do you think? anybody? >> better hurry up. >> what do you think? >> better hurry up. >> hurry up, right? train's left the station? what's going to happen to real estate prices? >> well, commercial real estate prices, cap rate's fallen to 4%. they only have one way to go. >> this is very true. >> among today's top stories, we're watching oil prices closely ahead of a key opec meeting wednesday. crude was down sharply on reports of disagreement between opec countries and non opec exporters like russia over who should cut production to curb oversupply. a meeting scheduled for today between opec and non opec producers was canceled after saudi arabia decided not to attend. take a look there. wti down just a few cents a barrel, $46.03 last trade, brent

unchanged. on this week's economic agenda, tomorrow look for the estimate on third-quarter gdp, the s&p case-shiller, consumer confidence and paychex. on wednesday, adp pending home sales and the beige book. and thursday, jobless claims, ism index and auto sales and on friday, the biggie with the jobs report. and today is cyber monday, a big day for online deals. so far, though, consumers aren't too concerned about missing out. according to the national retail federation, early holiday promotions and a belief that deals will always be around led to a decrease in spending over thanksgiving weekend. the nrf says shoppers spent an average of 3.5% less than a year ago. full rundown of the holiday shopping stats coming up at the bottom of the hour. >> i'm the cheapest of the cheapskates. i saw these deals and still didn't go for them. >> you're like, more's around the corner. >> more is coming. >> and you know they're going to last through the holiday. >> you think they are, but then you wonder has the train left the station. >> i'm willing to place that

bet. >> what do you want to buy? you mean for gifts? >> for gifts. i have children who need things, i have a wife -- >> i don't need anything. >> don't worry -- >> what happens if i told you it was already taken care of? >> don't -- really? >> don't give me any -- no, i don't want anything. i'm thinking about a lot of different things. i don't know what i want oil to do. i don't know what's bullish and what's not. i don't know whether we want oil prices to go up or come down. i don't see how supply concern -- if it's not a demand indication, i don't see how it impacts our markets. >> i think we want oil prices to stay where they are. we don't want them to go up. >> if we want the market to . andrew, while you were out, and i was out, too. i was not in wisconsin as you were recounting ballots, i was on vacation for thanksgiving. you don't change the ballots while you're counting. >> i don't do that. i can't speak for my people, but, no, i'm joking. no, no, no. first of all, i was in disney world. >> you were in disney world?

>> i was in disney world -- >> that's your story. >> magic kingdom. i'm sticking to that. >> but andrew, the market -- >> by the way, we have some amazing "squawk" viewers. can i say this? >> we do? >> so many amazing viewers who were so kind. they would come up to us at disney world. >> that's nice to hear. >> they love you, joseph, they love becky, melissa, they love you sitting in, but anyway -- >> if they love me, did they love you, too? >> they, they -- you know, maybe they were just being polite. maybe they were just being polite. >> the people i know that maybe love me don't love you and the ones that hate me do love you. >> well -- >> binary. >> yeah. >> well, i was fortunate enough to find a number of them who supposedly love us both, so -- >> impressive. >> they love the love -- >> between you two. >> between us. >> i can feel it. >> but the excitement in consumer confidence, it's bizarre, isn't it? and castro's death had nothing to do with trump, obviously, but they said he faced that -- you know, this was a trump supporter on twitter -- he faced down ten

presidents until this one came along and they said i'm out of here. but stocks -- i think mcc was supposed to be here today -- >> yes. >> and we knew that wasn't going to happen. because she was on the original rundown. >> yeah, yeah, absolutely. >> and she immediately off to -- anyway, "stocks to watch" today. one of them is -- but the market, the market. and now we've got -- i mean, the animal spirits. someone has a drinking game for how often i say it or cramer says it or people say animal spirits, but it is a true -- >> absolutely. >> he's not president and all this stuff is happening. and i can't believe we have another jobs report already. that just happened, the last one -- >> which makes all the data somewhat old. >> right? but it was already set up for -- you know, we already had a take. maybe we see wage gains and everything starts looking better, maybe. samsung electronics will reportedly consider splitting into two as proposed by activist investor elliott management. the "sole economic daily" says

samsung's board will meet tomorrow. great work. i don't know if you saw it. i don't get a subscription. last month, elliott proposed that samsung split into a holding and an operating company, pay a special dividend in return, cash to investors. and schlumberger has proposed an oil drilling deal in iran. if completed, it would be the first deal in iran since european sanctions forced it to leave in 2010. boeing could face sanctions from the wto as soon as this week. the "wall street journal" reports that that organization is set to rule that the company received illegal tax breaks in washington state for its 777x aircraft. the eu claims boeing has received more than $8 billion in subsidies. meantime, cuba mourning fidel castro. he defied 11 u.s. presidents and nearly brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. what does the future hold now for the island nation just 90 miles from u.s. shores? michelle caruso-cabrera, who was

going to be with us in studio, is in havana with that story. >> better weather. i don't know that it's a better place. better weather, maybe. >> reporter: what i was thinking, joe. yes, the weather is better. we're here in the plaza, the revolution. this is where the memorial service is going to be tomorrow night for fidel castro. two key questions. now that he's dead, does anything change? probably the more important question -- president-elect donald trump, now that he's going to be president, what happens to the thawing of relations initiated by president obama back in december of 2014, specifically to the business relationships? according to the u.s./cuba trade council, more than 3,000 senior-level u.s. executives have been to the island since that time to try to explore what possibilities. there have been 150 formal meetings. of that, we know of 30 u.s. companies involved here. and i use involved, because for many of them, deal is too strong a word. let's show you what's happened since the major announcement in december of 2014.

all the major u.s. airlines recently now initiating commercial flights from the u.s. to cuba, and it was just this week that they began flights, like literally today to havana, where the vast majority of u.s. visitors would want to visit. carnival's had cruises in here, you can book airbnb and also a number of government hotel rooms on booking.com. if you want to use a credit card here, there are only three banks in the united states from which you can get a credit card, a mastercard that will work here. stonegate in florida, nat bank in florida and bianco popular in cuba. you've always been able to wire with western uniyou know, but not every mastercard will want. it has to be from those specific banks. there are major roaming agreements, which means that u.s. visitors when they come here, their phones will work, although it will be very expensive, 3 bucks a minute if you want to talk and lots of data charges as well. and idt is also providing direct

long-distance. other than that, we know general electric has signed a memorandum of understanding, but that doesn't mean that's going to actually lead to anything. google has worked very, very hard here, had an executive dedicated to trying to expand internet service here in cuba, and the cuban government has very much rebuffed google. this is what they permitted them. we're showing you video of the one location which is on the outskirts of havana where students can come and use free wi-fi, free high-speed internet service. but it's not available to the vast majority of the cuban public. the vast majority that don't have access to the internet. the cuban embargo still exists. however, because of the executive actions that president obama did, there is a lot more that could be done here by u.s. businesses, except the cuban government has been extremely slow or hasn't approved very much of anything, which has been a great frustration for a lot of people involved in trying to end the cuban embargo and improve

the situation between the two countries, guys. look, we don't know what's going to happen after fidel castro. everybody's been asking for years what happens after fidel castro. we don't know, but at least now we're going to find out. >> michelle, the word is that the genie's out of the bottle that u.s. companies got all this stuff in the works, all this stuff developing things. we've already spent money. we've got, you know, you can't back out of this now. you just said nothing is really happening. and i'm wondering, if trump were to say, okay, we're going to leave this like it is, except we want this, we want dissidence, we want visa concessions, this, that. we'll stay, but you need to do this stuff, would they do it or would they say, okay, the deal's off? >> reporter: very good question. we're all wondering the same thing. that's the key thing. i mean, there are -- i just focused on what are the business relationships that have been established. there are other things that would be more meaningful, for example, to the cuban people --

remittances. there used to be limits every quarter what cuban exiled families in florida or wherever they were in the united states could send back to families. the obama administration lifted those completely, so there's been a lot more cash coming into the island going to individuals. so, those i think are the kind of things, when you hear people say, oh, you can't roll those back, those would directly affect the cuban people. as for the amount of business that's been done, i mean, none of what's getting done here is going to be meaningful in any way for the revenues of a lot of the major corporations. it was kind of an exploratory thing. so when it comes to business deals, i'm not sure what would be all that impactful if donald trump rolled back a lot of those things. >> okay. michelle, thank you for this. we're going to continue the conversation. for more on what's next for u.s./cuba relations after fidel castro's death, congressman cobello from miami. congressman, help us understand

how you think president-elect trump should approach the country. >> andrew, good morning from miami, where there is not a lot of mourning going on after the passing of fidel castro. of course, this is where many of the victims of fidel castro's regime live. what we're going to see, or at least we hope, after president-elect trump takes over on january 20th, is a policy that actually holds the cuban government accountable, not just to make economic reforms, but also to make political reforms. everything has been very one-sided up to this point. this has been a legacy-building exercise for the obama administration. it's very clear that the president wanted to be known and wants to be remembered as the president who normalized relations with cuba. but that's really not an end. the end is for cuba to be a free and democratic nation and a true partner for the united states, a country where u.s. companies and americans can actually feel

comfortable visiting and doing business, and that is the goal, to put pressure on the cuban government, because we really haven't had a negotiation. it's been a giveaway up to now -- >> what does it look like? >> and that doesn't advance u.s. interests. >> what does that look like, in terms of what we're supposed to do, in terms of what i imagine has to be a rollback of some of the concessions that have been made thus far? >> well, here's some simple demands we can make. the cuban government still has one of the most sophisticated and vast spy networks in the united states. they sell intelligence on the united states to the russians, to the chinese, to the north koreans, to the iranians. how about they dismantle that? the cuban government harbors fugitives of u.s. law, including a cop killer from new jersey who's there, many others who have defrauded medicare. the cuban government continues assisting the medulla regime,

which was major for us in florida. we've lost up to $4 billion in bilateral trade a year thanks to cuba's intervention in venezuela. so, all these things need to stop. and of course, morally, we have to ask the cuban government to respect human rights and cuba to stop beating and oppressing people. so, i think that's the message that the new administration is going to take to the cubans, and it's going to be up to them on whether they want a relationship or a one-sided deal. >> congressman, your parents were cuban exiles, so you approach this from a unique perspective. in terms of the leverage that the u.s. has, i mean, obviously, a big thing is the economic leverage and basically going back on the executive order that president obama had enacted. in terms of what that could look like, is there a halfway, in your view, where you don't sever all economic ties, but perhaps maybe you curb, for instance, u.s. business ties or dealings with state-owned enterprises and

sort cut it off there? is there a halfway here or is it an all-or-nothing approach, in your view? >> well, that would make a lot of sense. look, everyone wants to help the cuban people. what we don't want to do is help the cuban dictatorship and strengthen that dictatorship, because raul castro has one goal -- to be able to pass along the family farm to the next generation without any disruptions. we know that that's not going to be good for the cuban people and we know it's certainly not going to be good for the united states, because this is a government that's been an enemy of our country for 58 years now. remember, the men in power in cuba today are the same men who had nuclear missiles installed in cuba and pointed at the united states. now, they don't have that capability today and they wouldn't do that today, but this is the mentality. so we certainly need to put pressure on them to disrupt that government, to give the cuban people a chance to thrive and to have a genuine partner and ally 90 miles away that we can trust

and really do business with. >> congressman, appreciate your perspective this morning. thank you. >> thank you all very much. >> you bet. thanks. coming up, the trump rally rolls on. dow industrials are at a record high again, up nearly 5% since election night. and take a look at the dow transports, up more than 8% since november 8th. we will talk portfolio strategy after the break. ♪ this is my headquarters. this is where i trade and manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do.

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in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. welcome back to "squawk box." san francisco's municipal rail system was held for ransom. the computer system was hacked on friday afternoon and muni riders found out of service and metro free signs on ticket machines friday, saturday and sunday. computer screens at muni stations displayed a message "you hacked," all data encrypted with contact information. as of last night, some payment systems and station computers have now been restored, but muni conductors were assigned routes by handwritten notes, going back to the old days, posted to bulletin boards. the markets are coming off a week of new record highs again. u.s. equity futures at this hour are a little weaker, but almost looked like it carried over from weakness in europe, and they're

talking about opec and what happens in italy, blah, blah, blah. joining us, marianne bartles, head of portfolio strategy. chris rexler is also with us, fund manage of needham small cap growth fund and co-fund manager of the needham growth fund and peter bukvar from the lindsey group and a cnbc contributor. one thing in your notes, chris, that i wanted to start with, and that is that for the first time in quite a while, you said actually, we haven't seen this for a long time. there's a pro business and investment environment, that it is sort of apparent to people. because that's what it has to be because nothing's changed yet. in fact, we're in a recount. we're in recount hell. so, nothing's changed, and already we're -- here's my question. i saw an article written that for the next five, ten years, anything above 5% per year for the s&p is going to be hard to

accomplish because of demographics, because of productivity not growing as it used to, because of valuation, because the world isn't the world it used to be back in the '70s, '80s, '90s or whatever. do you think something fundamentally changed because of what you said, that pro investment, like, can we actually go back to 3% or 4% growth and a stock market that reflects that? >> i think we're fundamentally changed. we had an election. expectations have changed. confidence out there is better. i think businesses are looking to possibly put investment in. you've got potentially an opportunity on whole tax system out there, repatriation of dollars back. now, that's inflationary. but i think our fed's been looking for inflation for the last six or seven years. we may now be able to get it through some of these fiscal changes. so, i'm much more positive on the businesses out there. i think consumers are feeling better. if we put a lot more people back to work with these programs that are going to be an investment out there. so, and for productivity, i

think investment will drive some of that. >> okay. marianne, how bullish are you? are you more bullish than before the election? >> yes. >> you have become more bullish? >> right. last time i was on, i was about pro cyclicals, earns have troughed and will probably accelerate going into 2017. what's really bullish is we're starting to see the value part of the market really accelerate. and that means the market is really starting to price in more of an abundance of earnings. and the financials are really the beneficiary of that. we saw the industrials hill record all-time highs after the election. small caps are the strongest performers. so small caps represent america. so, i think things are very bullish, and i'm glad to hear people more on the pessimistic side, because the longer that strategists and individuals are pessimistic, the more likely it is for the markets to continue to go higher. we're in a secular bull market. no one sees it. no one wants to talk about it. and the longer they don't see

it, the longer we'll have it. >> the question, though, i mean, in your part of the world, small caps, is all this optimism really worth so far about a 13% rise on the russell 2000? i mean, how much of that optimism is already in there? do you go in and continue buying even at these record-high levels? >> look, it's certainly had a great move, and a correction would be welcomed. 5% pullback i think will be very healthy. but i think there's not a lot in the way right now between here and year end to kind of dismantle, other than what we're watching is the interest rates and the dollar strength. i mean, those are two items that are kind of macro. but otherwise, i think there's been a lack of investment in small caps generally. they've underperformed in the past few years. we think the larger cap, you know, interest rate sensitive companies, dividend, where everybody was piled into, there's more risk there. >> do a little math for us so we understand. how much of this is the quote/unquote real economy, meaning what's actually going on that you think maybe was mispriced before, and how much

is the quote/unquote trump effect? and what is the trump effect actually mean in terms of real dollars? >> i think there's been a rotation here. i think there were a lot of people on the wrong side of the trade before the election because it was a surprise. so, you had rotation of industries that were set up to go down in a different type of a presidential outcome. and so, you've had that reaction, you've had short covering. so, there's certainly some technical portions that have moved too far, too fast. >> all right. all you are is less negative than you used to be about valuations, because you thought the market was a fed, on a fed high. >> right. >> so, i think you now think maybe there's some fundamentals that have come up. and here we go, but at least better feeling. when does a guy like you, who worries about printing money, who worries about bond markets, when do you get worried about infrastructure and tax cuts put together? when does that come back? >> like you say, i'm bullish on the potential economic policies that are going to come our way.

you know, hopefully, grow 3% plus instead of this 2% plus. but i still think we have to get past this bond bubble that's now leaking. to think there will be a free launch, that we can have artificially suppressed interest rates for so many years and somehow have them normalized and everything will be okay i think is unrealist. so, we have to get from here to there, there being a better economic story, but this rise in interest rates i don't think is necessarily painless. >> you just said it, the day of reckoning we would have had if we continued the same policies we've had for the last eight years, that day of reckoning with all this zirp for so long would have been much worse. if we grow faster, your day of reckoning you were looking for might not be as bad as -- >> i'm hoping it won't be as bad as we could normalize interest rates. >> would that mean you were wrong or would that mean someone else came in and the facts changed? >> i still believe pain will be had with the rise of interest rates. we have daebt to gdp of 250% in

this country. so, $46 trillion of debt, nonfinancial debt. so, for every 100 points of a rise in interest rates, that's -- >> we can always print, and if we export some inflation -- i mean, we are still in a deflationary world, aren't we? >> over the past seven years, we had a better market than we had an economy. we may have a better economy than markets as interest rates go higher. >> you know where i was going with this? you know the story i'm looking at. trump's fiscal plan roils gop. for all the sort of happy talk about his plans -- >> the far right. >> there are people within the republican party who may try to stop this and suggest actually that we're going to take on too much debt, which is where i thought you would be. >> the debt levels are so high that there's very little room to move. because right now the 10-year yield is in line with nominal gdp historically. what happens if trump stimulates economic growth? we get 4% nominal gdp.

interest rates have a long way to go up. >> if you get there. >> so, the bond vigilantes could limit some of the things he wants to do. >> thank you. detecting some increased bullishness across the board, if i had to summarize what -- even you, which is -- >> the economy should be better over the next couple years than it was over the last few years. >> we've got to go. mary ann, thank you. chris, thank you. peter's sticking around. coming up, your black friday scorecard, new data on shopping trends. online retailers posting big numbers. kayla tausche has more details at the cyber command center. ♪ it's been over 100 years since the first stock index was created, as a benchmark for average. yet a lot of people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing.

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welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour. we're a little bit in the red, but just marginally for now. dow a little off, about 41 points if we opened up right now. s&p 500 would open up at 7 1/2 points and the nasdaq would open off about 14 points. the black friday weekend of 2016 in the books, and now it's cyber monday. mobile and online spending outpaced retail spending for the duration of the weekend. kayla tausche has some new data on this weekend's retail activity. she's live at first data's cyber command center in omaha. guilt good morning, kayla. >> reporter: good morning, melissa. we have so many stats we use to parse the stats of the black friday retail spending, mostly based on traffic in stores and to websites, but we wanted to add new data to the mix based on real credit card spending, and that's why we're here at first

data, which prints 245 million credit, debit and gift cards a year. it does nearly $2 trillion in transactions, so it has a unique bird's-eye view to look at actually where spending took place over the weekend. new data out this morning shows that on thanksgiving and black friday, retail spending grew 9% over last year. that's a slight slowdown from the growth that we saw last year, but it is still fairly strong. the decision by a lot of retailers to close their doors on thanksgiving did make a dent, though, on sales. retail spending on thanksgiving day grew only 5.8%. that was cut in half from the year prior. so, where were consumers spending? well, retail, and perhaps not surprisingly, on high-ticket items like electronics and appliances. the average ticket size for electronics and appliances grew 27%. finally, online sales also not surprising, grew nearly 11% over last year. e-commerce now makes up a quarter of total spending.

now, of course, today is cyber monday. we're going to be getting some more exclusive data throughout the day from first data. that is why we are here. you can see behind me the total transaction count since just midnight last night. so, in about six hours, first data has processed north of $600 million in transactions. perhaps most interesting, though, guys, the most transactions that we saw by sector were in fuel and fast food. but just in the last five minutes we saw miscellaneous retail leapfrog those sectors. so we'll keep you posted throughout the day, but certainly an interesting snapshot of where spending is taking place. >> what's in miscellaneous retail, kayla? >> reporter: well, it's exactly what you would think it would be. i mean, it's retailers that basically can't be categorized into pure apparel or pure electronics, but you know, they sell a little bit of everything. but we'll get more answers on that for you, melissa. >> all right, kayla. thank you. kayla tausche in omaha. let's bring in dana telsey for a holiday weekend retail

scorecard, chief research adviser with telsey advisory group. always good to see you. >> thank you. thank you for having me. >> you said that the promotional level seemed to be the same, but i wonder if you have any gauge on what the spending is. there was one stat that was really interesting to me, and that is that more than a third of shoppers bought 100% of their purchases on sale. >> right. and retails plan these promotions very carefully all year long. what we didn't see is it didn't seem like we saw the excess promotions that you would have expected if the retailers are really struggling. consumers today have more choice of where to buy and when to buy, and that's really the change. it's all about mobile. people are literally going to the store with their phone, taking a look and either charging there or going right to the register. >> in terms of specific players and how they stood out over the weekend, you know, what was interesting is that walmart.com seemed to really be going head to head with amazon this year. a lot of their most popular toys overlapped, according to various reports, amazon, and oftentimes, between walmart and jet.com, which they acquired in

september, prices were actually lower, or at least competitive. >> mm-hmm. i think that's what you're going to see, certainly with the biggest retailer in the world being walmart, they want to be playing this game and play fast, especially online. one of the things we did see was we saw more traffic at some of the target stores this black friday weekend than the walmart stores. what we saw overall was the sense that companies like elle brands or victoria's secret very busy, jcpenney and macy's also very busy during the weekend. in cyber monday now that's coming, all the online stats have been pretty good so far. and certainly, you'd wonder if it pulled back from what you could get in cyber monday. >> dana, one of the missing links of the recovery has been modest wage growth, but now there's hopes that that is going to accelerate. are you seeing any signs that that is creeping into better confidence in terms of consumer spending? >> well, one of the things we've seen, certainly, since november 4th, all the retail stocks have done very, very well. when you think about going into 2017, perhaps if you have some

lower tax rates, some more hiring, that would give more confidence, and that could be leading to the push for some of these retail names. >> what about the profitability as a retailer if your labor costs are going up? how are they going to be impacted by that? >> i think labor costs going up, more of the hourly wage workers, that certainly is something that the restaurant industry faces more than some of the regular retail industry. a lot of the retailers are paying above minimum wage to begin with. >> so, pair up the advance we have seen amongst the retail stocks since the elections with what we've seen over black friday shopping weekend. does it back up that advance, or do you still think, even given the performance of the retailers over the weekend that perhaps it's an advance that went too far too fast? >> i mean, certainly, typically what you have this post thanksgiving, december 15th through the 25th is essentially when almost 40% of holiday season sales take place. you go into a little bit of a quiet period. stocks may be a little bit volatile now. that will give people the opportunity for the setup into 2017. but the other thing we have this

year is lean inventory levels and easy comparisons, and that's something that's going to help. this week we're going to hear from a lot of different companies, everyone from american eagle to pvh and tiffany tomorrow, so we're going to get more color on exactly what this weekend meant. >> i know we want to be nice, but who's the big loser this weekend? >> i think you're having gap certainly have an issue this weekend. seems like the core gap brand is definitely slower. the teen retailers, abercrombies of the world also struggling. >> it's a confirmation of what we knew stock pricewise going into the weekend. >> yes. and i think going into the weekend overall, one of the things that we've seen is you can't tell as much as you did in the past, given that mobile phones are where a lot of the action is happening. >> did you read about the gap ceo? >> yeah, a struggle this time. >> in the "journal"? >> yes, a struggle. >> said he's not a creator, a creative type? >> he's brought in other people to be the creative type, but certainly with a retailer like gap, you need to be creative all around. it's not only in financial flexibility, which sabrina simmons, the cfo, did a terrific

job at, but you need to have the right product and you need to be current and relevant. when companies like zara are innovating so quickly, how do you react is key. >> and what do they do with that store base that's enormous? >> they've been pairing it back to begin with, and you're seeing a lot of retailers do it. that's why you see the segmentation between the "a" malls and the lower-end malls. >> final question, what about mickey drexler? what's going on at j. crew? tell us. >> it's about made well. they're doing better than j. crew. he still has to find his way with j. crew. he put a new balance in some of the stores. comps there still haven't turned around. >> dana, thank you. >> thank you. >> no, i'm good. i'm not really that good at talking about that. i haven't been in a store in a while. i leave that to dana. >> oh, but news you can use. are we supposed to be buying today online at these discounts or not? >> you're going to get good deals today. >> are there better deals to be had later? >> as you get closer, i think it will be the same as today. i don't think it gets that much

different, because don't forget, you don't have as much inventory. >> no incentive. >> discounting will continue towards christmas. >> that's the plan, yes. >> who do you buy gifts for? >> got a family! >> i do, too, but i just need to know jewelry. if you do anything other than jewelry, you're probably not going to be well received. >> maybe the jacket like steve liesman was wearing on friday. it's about velvet. red velvet jacket like steve. >> that's the fashion trend for men? >> i'd say go tiffany. they could use the business. apparently, they're -- >> but you don't go tiffany. you get the blue bag and you put something from 45th street in the blue bag, don't you? >> 47th street. >> 47th street. >> where do you get the blue bag, joe? you recycle it from last year? >> yes. >> it's the old box. >> no, but am i right about jewelry? try, like, try an exercise bike. try getting that for someone, see how that goes, or worse, like a vacuum cleaner or something. none of that -- >> put that in the blue box. >> is tiffany really having a problem, by the way? is that real? >> i think that store's just over 8% of sales.

it's certainly been -- >> a story for trump tower. >> the destination shoppers are still going there. the tourists in the past that buy, it's been tougher to get in. >> you buy the kids, you pick out -- >> i do. not all. my wife does some of that. >> how do your kids get picked out? >> mostly, i have that -- i have someone who knows what they're doing does that. >> they apportion the responsibilities in the household. >> okay. >> yes. >> got it. >> okay. anyway, we're going to switch gears now and find out how cubans in miami and businesses there are reacting to the death of fidel castro and what it means for the future of u.s./cuban relations. we sent bertha coombs down there to little havana. good morning, bertha. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. you know, a lot of people are sort of saying this is a watershed, unique moment in the history of u.s./cuban relations with the death of fidel castro coming as we are seeing a new president coming into office who has vowed to negotiate more toughly with cuba. amid all of the celebrations

this weekend, people acknowledge that despite the death of fidel castro, the regime that he put in place and has been there for some 55 years, very much still in power. many here who supported donald trump are hopeful that he will seize this opportunity to really push the cuban administration to usher in more reform than they feel was done with the deal that was orchestrated by the obama administration. >> we need our businesses, business leaders to realize that commerce is not the only value in this country, but rather, moral responsibility, values, freedom, and the tenants that we see hold dear. >> reporter: meantime, attorney pedro frede who has helped a number of businesses start doing commerce in cuba, and he also accompanied president obama with a delegation back in march when

they opened relations with that country, he thinks the passing of castro symbolically is so important, it will really help now to unleash greater reforms within the cuban regime itself more quickly. >> i think the absence of fidel castro, who was sort of the touchstone for the hardliners in cuba is going to be very significant in allowing somebody like raul, who's much more a pragmatist, a little bit more freedom of action. but more importantly, other people coming up beneath him, the younger generations that are coming up in the cuban government and cuban society who really want change. >> reporter: he really equates this to the passing of mao in china, which helped free the next generation to really start moving towards greater economic reform. whether that means also political and social reform, well, that remains to be seen. back to you. >> okay, bertha coombs in miami. thank you for that. when we come back, "stocks

to watch," including a big raise for a video game ceo. plus, it's a holiday weekend for disney at the cinema. box office results, we'll tell you about them right after the break. right now, a quick check on what's happening in european markets at this hour. we're back in a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing) they are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary,

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time now for "the executive edge," and we'll start with stocks to watch. shares of mgm resorts could be poised to surge in the next few years. a report in "barron's" suggests it could rise 20% as it capitalized on a rebound in tourism and convention business in las vegas. they own 40% of the hotel rooms in the city. "barron's" also says baker hughes could get a significant boost if they complete its merger with ge's oil and gas business. the report says the new company would be well positioned even if oil prices do not rise. and activision blizzard has reached a new deal with ceo bobby coat yek, which could make him one of the highest paid executives in the united states. a fcc filing shows he stands to win $60 million in stocks.

interesting friday s.e.c. filing during a long weekend, thanksgiving weekend. i don't know. >> got to hit the targets, though. >> yeah, yeah, that's true. >> by the way, he's done a great job over the last couple years. everybody gets out the small violin. disney's latest animated film topping the box office, "moana" earning more than $55 million over the weekend, bringing in its five-day total on $81 million. it features dwayne "the rock" johnson. it's about a presence yes's mythical journey in ancient polynesia. also, harry potter spinoff "magnificent beasts and where to find them" finished second at the box office, bringing in $45 million. its two-week total comes to $156 million. in the sorkin family, we saw two movies, "manchester by the sea," with casey affleck, who pours his heart into every frame, and it is remarkable. it's an amazon studios film. i know you're looking at me like -- >> no, you tweeted the same term, pours his heart into every frame? >> i'm telling you, i'm telling

you, this was great acting. this was great -- >> called it the best movie of the year. >> the "wall street journal" called it the best movie of the year! i'm telling you, it's a fantastic film. it is sad. it is a sad film. >> he is the director or actor? >> actor, casey affleck. and the other film which is not yet but you have to go see because it's so remarkably done, "la la land." >> i heard that was excellent. >> it's a musical. it's not what you'd expect, but i can't even believe they actually made a movie like this. >> and you know the producer or something? >> you know what, i discovered that one of the producers went to high school with me. >> right. >> yeah. >> small world. >> so, there you go. >> because you put him on your tweet. you put him and then -- >> yes. >> like in one of your columns, you expect him to come back and say, wow, andrew -- >> well, i don't know -- >> that way you say something about him and he'll say something about you next time. that's the way the twitter world works. that's what i've got to learn how to do. >> that's like the chit economy, right? >> exactly. >> and they'll be having lunch. >> exactly, they'll do lunch. coming up, what's working in

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what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom?

what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley welcome back to "squawk

box." more shoppers celebrated black friday from this couch this year, and we have the retail winners and losers. good morning. >> thanks very much. >> let's talk winners and losers, and we just had a conversation, and do you agree with the assessment of what is happening here? >> i agree there's a big pull online, and we saw more traffic over the weekend because of the online opportunity. retailers played it safe and inventories are down dramatically, but the dust has not settled. >> who do you like right now? >> francesca's, and american eagle has traffic. >> why is american eagle working and not the neighbor down the

street? >> they have taken it back to being very natural. no photo shopping and very diverse and embracing of all women and that has cast an umbrella over the whole brand this is what the millennial wants. >> what about the gap? >> the gap brand is in tough shape. an article in the paper today detailed some of the problems, but -- >> is that fixable? do you look at that and say, wow, this is on sale right now in terms of where the stock is? >> i think it's on sale for a good reason. >> is it fixable? >> it's very tough. there are not a lot of examples. >> what do you think happens to it in the next few years? >> i think it will continue to sleep and stores closed and online developed, and give it a year and see what happens. >> you like nordstrom's? >> i do. >> what do you think it's worth? >> $80. i think it's a great business

with a terrific future. >> is the department store a good business? >> nordstrom is a great business. >> do they face the same secular challenges? >> they have a leadership team that has vision, and not to say job security, but they can work out 20 years. >> put up nordstroms to macy's? >> well, lungram is chairman, and he create add 1,400 chain that he has been shrinking for the last few years, and he is going to repurpose the stores, selling retail. >> what is that stock worth, macy's? >> i have a hold on it. >> thank you, and good morning.

>> thank you. coming up, cuba beginning a week of mourning for castro, and we have a live report from havana. plus, we will talk to carlos gutierrez. "squawk box" will be right back. is it because so many go after it the same way? chasing after short term returns.

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cuba after castro. what is next for the island nation and its relations with the united states? from leadership transitions to corporate ties, a live report on the possible changes and the economic impact is straight ahead. >> can a trump rally carry on?

investigators go under the hood of the economy this week and friday's jobs reports will be a big focus as we learn about trump's plan to jump-start the economy, and the names that can benefit from the trump presidency, straight ahead. and a look at amazon's big push to get customers to click. but should the stock go in your portfolio? we go inside the numbers as the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now. >> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. the futures at this hour have been down marginally for most of the morning for three solid weeks of gain, down 35 on the dow jones so far, and we'll see how that plays out throughout the session, and it's early,

just under 7 on the s&p 500 and down about 12 on the nasdaq, but this is all from the all-time highs across the board. let's tell you what is happening at this hour. we are keeping an eye on the russell 2,000, and it's the first time it has done that since 1996, and closed at a record high on friday and if it can rise today it would have its longest win streak since 1988. we have significant numbers out later in the week highlighted by the november jobs report that comes out on friday, and we will have the private sector employment that comes out on wednesday, and auto sales on thursday. and at&t will have more than 100 live streaming channels, and we will talk about how it may be

driving in part the deal that it is pursuing for time warner. cuba is at a crossroads, and castro's death, what does it mean in terms of economics, and michelle joins us from havana with more, and you have twitter so you are not missing any of this, justice trudeau getting a little pushback, and the rains ran on time with meuse lany. i am hearing universal health care and great for education, and the average cuban makes $20 a month or something like that, and social justice warrior, and even in football, kaepernick getting booed in miami, and it's all viewed in political terms

again, michelle. >> reporter: yeah, i have been to hospitals here, joe, and i wouldn't wish them on my worst enemy, and if the health care is so great here, many, many people are still trying to leave the island. the question after fidel castro's death will there be any acceleration of the limited forms here on the island and he has not been in charge for ten years and there have been tiny things that have been allowed, but remember this is a communist country, and that means commerce as we have come to know it has been prohibited since the early 1960s, and since the thawing of relations initiated by president obama and raul castro, there is some changes that are limited and mostly it is in the

hospitality area, and commercial flights beginning recently and jetblue announcing today, jfk to havana are starting today, and this should be a hospitality paradise, it's beautiful, and i can attest to that, and there's almost no decent to stay here, and why would that be, even though every country could have been investing here even though the united states has an embargo in place. the cuban government will always own more than 50% of the property and decide how you are going to invest. the cuban government will decide who you are going to employ, and the cuban government will decide what you are going to pay those employees and you will have no control over the business and all the materials that you would like to import beautiful sheets from france, that will naot be

done, and even if the embargo were to go away tomorrow, the ability to do real business here in the way the rest of the world thinks about it is still largely impossible because the government has refused to change. remember, 99% of the population here still works for the government. if you owned a shoe shine shop in 1962, fidel castro took that away from you and said you now work for the government, and we're going to pay you all basically the same salary which has not budged for many, many years. so now that fidel castro is dead, does raul castro feel freer to do some changes? we will see and we will see what president-elect trump decides of what president obama has put in place. >> thank you, michelle. now for more on the aftermath of fidel castro's death, let's bring in albright stonebridge

secretary, and former ceo of kellogg, and secretary in the past, when we have had you on, we can't just few the dichotomy of what cuban americans feel towards fidel castro in general terms, and i thought it was that simple, maybe the old generation harbors a lot of resentment and the younger generation doesn't remember, but you were very positive about president obama's moves in cuba. i guess because maybe we eventually need to move forward for the younger generation. have i got that right? >> yeah, i think eventually we have to move forward, joe. it has been 58 years. that's a long time. over the last two years, a lot of business people and a loft universities and hospitals and organizations have worked very hard to get closer to cuba, as

was mentioned a little while ago we now have commercial flights to cuba, and we are going to have over 150 a week. a lot of work has been done, and i think that the president-elect would be well served if he received other points of view, to just simply write this off with one signature, i think, would be a shame, because it's minor and there's been progress that has been made, and to all of a sudden just turn our backs on them, i think it's worth another point of view, and i think the president-elect will be well served to get other points of view. >> i don't know whether anybody was really necessarily recommending that, and i think that to keep the deal as is, maybe asking for additional concessions, human rights or whatever, whatever we did not

get that critics highlighted in the other deal, maybe stick some of that in a new deal, and i think you are saying the train already left the station, and there's a lot of them, and that's your point, it's already in motion. >> i think you are right. if he just keeps everything in place and doesn't make much progress, or if he keeps everything in place and moves forward, but he's getting a lot of pressure to write everything off, and there are a lot of businesses and a lot of farm states and a lot of governors and mayors who are counting on agriculture sales to cuba when we continue to make progress on things like providing credit, and we have airlines who have geared up and it takes a lot of planning and a lot of investment to manage flights to cuba, and star wood are managing hotels and there are deals that have been signed, and cultural

exchanges and university exchanges and we need to step back a little built before we say to throw that out and let's go back to where we were during the cold war. >> what would you say, as i was eluding to earlier, older generations that lost property or that were wronged, and it seems like that's still a fairly large group of people that feel like they were slighted, or feel like there was no justice. what do we do to help the people in cuba right now, and at the same time not ignore the legitimate claims for people that were wronged? >> my father was one of them and i grew up in a household hearing about this every single day, i know and i understand the emotions, but that's why this process will take us into negotiations on claims, and this is an opportunity to get everything on the table to that

discuss it, including those claims. it's moving forward that we are going to make progress, and i just can't see how going back to where we were five years ago at a time when cuba's changing and allowing more free enterprise, and it just seems like totally the wrong time to step back, especially when we are seeing so much chinese and so much european investment. >> mr. secretary, you recognize that president-elect trump's stance on cuba is pretty hard lined. is there somewhere in your view that is an in between, in between overturning the executive orders obama has put in place and keeping them in place? does your counsel at the u.s. chamber of commerce cuban and u.s. relations recognize there's something in between? >> well, look, i think he would be well served to understand what has been done.

i suppose the in between could be keep everything as is and start your own talks, and see how much you want to move forward, but give the process a chance. i think it would be a tremendous legacy for president-elect obama -- sorry, president-elect trump, so sorry, to be, you know, the business person who can spread the word of how noble free enterprise is, and this is a perfect opportunity to do it in cuba, and i do believe that he is just hearing one side of the story. this could be a very wise move by president trump, but i do think he needs to spread out the type of advice that he is getting. >> mr. secretary, let's take this one step further. what happens when raul dies? who runs this country? >> well, that's the part of

nobody really knows. you know, there are supposed succession plans, but that day will come and it almost seems like the people who want to roll back president obama's steps toward normalization says we will think about that when the day comes, and it's irresponsible, a bit of leaning on emotions 100% when i think we should be thinking strategically thinking about the future. this is a neighbor that is that 90 miles away. we can't be shouting enemies forever. and now that the door has been open to normalization talks, it would be wise to just hold off, maybe give it six months because there's going to be a lot of change in cuba, and they are going to be renaming cities and towns, and renaming streets, and

they will be back and i believe that the normalization process and the privatization process in cuba should accelerate. >> mr. secretary, we appreciate your time today. thank you. >> appreciate, joe. >> raul's 85. and fidel castro died at the age of 90, and that's not that far off of the future, necessarily. >> i want to talk about wilber ross and what he thinks about that. in the meantime, can the trump swing carry on. we will get an update on what investors can expect this christmas and whether the stock should be in your portfolio.

"squawk box" returns with a lot more in just a moment. ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing)

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. the futures right now in the red, and the dow looks like it will open down about 36 points, and the s&p off about seven points. and then which stocks stand to benefit from a trump

presidency? here now is our guests, the chief u.s. economists, and our guest host, our chief market analyst at the lindsay group and a cnbc contributor. gentlemen, great to have you with us. jim, the question here at this point is where do we go from these record highs we have seen, and how much of a breather are you expecting here at this point? >> i think we have a little breather here. the hope trade really is in full bloom. everything -- >> full bloom meaning it's going to wilt on the vine in the coming weeks? is that the metaphor? >> i think everybody is full of optimism right now and we have to see how it plays out and a number of campaign promises are already being discarded, so what happens to the stimulus, and what happens to tax cuts? the market is priced in a lot of benefit for both of them, and if it doesn't happen fir fairly

quickly in 2017, we may see a change. >> was most of the rally based on the-frank is going to be repealed? >> on the capital good side, maybe a little less, because the pes are kind of high to start with, and when you think of maybe stimulus doesn't happen until 2018, i think those stocks are ahead of themselves. >> the other jim, and it could be a very confusing segment, in terms of your expectation for growth, how much is that dependent that we are going to get a stimulus? >> it's not affected in any significant way at all, and the chances are there will be a tax reform and individual as well as corporate and then entail some kind of a tax cut, but that would not affect the economy

until mid 2017 at the earliest, so it's not going to be a plus in terms of directly affecting the economy in a few quarters, and on the other side, interest rates are going up. i changed my forecast, i did bump up my forecast for the second half of 2017 to a little on growth, gdp, and in the meantime it's a continuation of what we have been seeing, which is not great growth by past standards, but more than the unemployment rate coming down and we are seeing wages and core inflation drifting up, and there was a case to be tightening, and that would happen regardless of who won the election. >> and trying to get out to sectors that advanced either with reason or without reason, and consumer discretion based on the election results. in your view, they may be

feeling a pinch on a rate or getting a mortgage might be tougher versus there's growth out there and they might feel money in their pockets from a potential tax cut? >> the labor market has been chugging along sawolidly, and probably a strong wage income numbers, they have been accelerating, and retail sales going into the holiday shopping seaso season, the trend is 4%, and i see that continuing. for sure interest rates going up is a negative, and confidence and wealth being up are positives, and the core of this is the labor market has been and probably will continue to improve. >> i have a question. so the last seven years, the bullish theme was modest growth,

low rates, the fed not raising interest rates and great for stock -- >> when you look at the absolute levels, yes, and p.e. is at 17 times for the s&p, and versus the 10-year treasury at 230, that's not out of whack. >> and that brings my question to you, let's say we get a 10-year 3.5 or 4. what kind of transition will it make in a rising interest rate environment on a economy addicted to low rates? >> if everything is equal, you raise long rates a point and a half, and it would have negative affects on house in particular, and maybe if global growth was not as weak, and all those

questions are out there, and if you get a point and a half increase in six months i think that would be negative and a lot of it would depend on how the equity market would respond. i am not counting on bond deals going up that fast. >> and whether it's small caps or the broader market industries, which levels do you like at these levels? >> technology has been left behind and also health care. >> i think it's going to be hard to repeal -- >> you are banking on the fact that it stays in place, you like health care? >> yes. >> great to have you. >> peter will be with us for the rest of the hour. coming up, the biggest online shopping day of the year, and look how amazon is poised to gain from the sales ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. .

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san francisco's municipal railway was hacked over the weekend and held for ransom. that ticketing system was hacked

on friday afternoon, and computer screens displayed a message, you hacked all data encrypted followed by contact information. and as of last night payment systems had been restored, but there was routes posted handwritten to bulletin boards. and the dow looks like it will open down about 34 points. "squawk" returns in just a moment.

♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." among the stories front and center at this hour, boeing facing possible sanctions because of its 777 x jet.

also samsung electronics will reveal plans to boost share holder value tomorrow, and u.s. hedge fund elliott management opposing splitting the company in two, and they have a stake in samsung. and then wells fargo is facing a new suit, and no response from wells fargo. an activism blizzard has reached a new deal which could make bobby codic one of the highest paid. of course this cyber monday, amazon rolling out more than 75,000 sales this week, and here

to talk about the stock, gene munster, and we start out in new jersey with courtney reagan. >> there's a conveyor belt over my head and packages are flying by. last cyber monday amazon said 23 million orders were fulfilled by its sellers, and that was an increase from the year prior, and many think that it will beat that. and one analyst said amazon will have strong demand throughout the season and to meet it amazon added 18 centers, and this is one of the largest and the busiest. amazon gets a lot of attention today, but a lot of retailers may see records set. the national retail federation expect 36% of americans to shop at some point today, and however prices are lower because of

deflation as well as deeper discounts, so the volume is going to really pick up to beat 2015. also black friday online sales surged 22%, and director said if that happens it would make today the largest ever online sales day in the united states. now the biggest challenge for amazon and other retailers is to convert traffic into actual sales, and also they have to make sure their websites hold up. you might remember on prime day for amazon in july the site went down for some of the retailers, and that can cost it lots of valuable dollars on a big day like today. back over to you. >> thank you. turning our attention to amazon, and last year shoppers ordered

54 million items on cyber monday, and joining us right now on what to expect right now, the managing director and senior analyst. good morning. >> morning. >> help us. what do you think? what is the right price for amazon? >> it's a big day. they are going to grow twice as fat as traditional online, about six times than traditional retail so this is a day that is important because it emphasizes the share gains they are having, and they will do about 2% of their total sales today, and they will do about 7 billion units, and one for every person in the world, and this is a big company that is growing really fast. >> the stock now, $777. what do you think it's worth? >> we are at 900. >> what is your view to the extent you have one about the donald trump rally, but the

trump affect on how amazon has not taken off in the same way for reasons given the commentary trump has had about mr. bezos? >> we have spent a lot of time looking at this and trump's comments towards amazon and bezos does not have merit, and that doesn't mean he can't do anything, he can start an investigation, and there could be headline risk because there's such bad blood between the two. >> when you say headline risks, do you anticipate trump administration would go after him? what do you think the real issues are there, even if you think they are spaerbious? >> the issues that trump brought up don't have any substance, so there's not anything for him to really go after. he could just align some sort of

blind investigation, and i think the probability of that is probably 1%, but it's on the scale. i think that some of the other things he's doing, for example, he talked about going after other people and it sounds like he's not going to do that so it's a low probability, and it's something that is out there. he does have a savard rattle, and bottom line, investors should not worry about this. >> the bottom line for amazon has been stellar, but the last quarter was a disappointment, and plus, there's a web service conference this week, and how important is the calendar fourth quarter for amazon and investors out there to keep the momentum going? >> it's important, on a scale of 1 to 10 it's probably a 7, and what is more important is what they are doing beyond the holiday quarter and they are slowly turning the screws down on traditional retail.

i think traditional retail long-term is in a very bad place, and to put the 26 that amazon has added into perspective, wall street added about seven, and all these things that prime is now offering is making it progressively more difficult. yes, cyber monday is important, and the holiday quarter is important and what is more important, is amazon's ability of infrastructure that can defeat long term? >> are retailers getting much better with their online offerings where they can become more competitive against amazon? >> they are, but amazon is still growing much faster, and just to put numbers around that, if you look at best buy, for example, they have gotten their e commerce offering back.

so there's more competition, and it's just that the off-line market is so big that amazon continued to grow faster than some of their competitors that are doing better. >> you have followed jet.com and what it's going to mean for walmart? >> we have, and i think what it means is there's probably learnings that wall street is going to get from that, and they are grossly behind the ball in terms of catching up with amazon, and we talked about the fulfillment centers, and it gives them intelligence on how to market, and it doesn't change the fundamental issue that walmart has, and they are geared for traditional brick and mortar. >> if we could speufp gears to apple, for the first time in a couple years, apple offered incentives for consumers to go in on black friday, and the conspiracy theorists in me thinks it needed to do that. how do you interpret that change

in its black friday strategy? do you think it paid off? >> i wouldn't read too much into it. they were coupons for in stores, and they were not discounting -- >> is that a calendar first quarter lift in terms of the gift card? >> you know, it's so small, probably isn't going to be measurable. i think what is important is that our retail team has done a survey of 1,000 people in the u.s. in the last month, and it was 5% in 2015, and 7%, and even though there's a story is the iphone 7 enough, consumers want it and that's good enough for the story and for the march numbers and it's a three-week lead time to get an iphone. >> gene, thank you, and great to see you. >> thank you. >> thanks. coming up, a pull back in

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welcome back to "squawk box." the dow looks like it will open by 20 points, and the nasdaq off about 6 points. you can ask your echo what the market is doing and it will tell you. did you see that? >> i have seen the ones where you are asking google. >> cnbc have a partnership, we are on amazon, and you can just go and say, hey, tell me about the markets. >> yours is still turned on? >> we keep it on. the mike is on. a hot mike in our household. how are we going to hear about the markets? >> how about the app? >> maybe the tv in the background. >> we are trying to be multiplatform here at cnbc.

>> be careful. just be careful. and founder and ceo of data, and our guest host this morning, peter bookvar. anything more about seeing the bond market sort of pull back and interest rates go higher therefore the dollar is worth more, is there anything further than that? is there economic activity picking up? >> there's a couple things. certainly interest rates as you point out, and there's a notion that all u.s. corporates that have been earning money offshore will bring it back. a lot of people involved in the currency is focused on that. >> that's really going to happen? how -- i guess with the republican president or the

republ republican congress, that can happen? >> if you speak to the big tech companies, they really save their offshore dollars already, and whether they bring them back will not have an affect on the currency market. >> how much is psychological tph stphaoeu you talk about hope earlier in this program, and i think that pertains to equities and it pertains to the dollar as well. people are hoping, and we had two years where the dollar is strong and then we took a breather here in the first half of this year, and so people with more squares -- there's a little room to get back in the dollar trade, but that's essentially where we are now?

>> could it end up being a net positive for us or will it always be seen as it's tough for multinationals to make money? >> i don't think trump is a strong dollar guy. if you think about what he wants to do for manufacturing, how he wants to drive growth, he would be the person that i would say would want to have a competitive currency. >> is it up to him what the dollar does? >> we officially have the strong policy in the country, right? we could have some commerce that could really rock the point at some point from him around the dollar so that's something to keep in mind if we extrapolate the move we are seeing so far. i think it's a timing thing. we have a discussion about the policy outlook, and right now the momentum is very strong. i wouldn't fight it this year, but the year does not have that many weeks left. >> it's december this week.

>> when we look into 2017, you have be very careful about extrapolating. think about the fed. we are going to go in december. and it's going to be a fast pace, if you look at what was priced last week, and i don't think the fed is ready to shift up a gear in terms of how fast they are doing. >> let's just say that is the case, they raise in december and really take their time next year, but the bond market continues to tighten for them, and we see very slow rate of short term interest rate rises because of the fed, but a sharper raise because of the interest rates, and what kind of impact will that because of the rise of inflation? >> when you look at what is going on in the treasury market, why are the bond yields going higher? is it because of the u.s. economy or something else? one thing we focus on is what is

going on in china and china has been losing a lot of reserves over the last couple months, and they are selling u.s. treasuries, so when you think about the bond yield moves, is it because good is going on or the seller of china? >> foreigners have been sellers of notes and there's no sign that is stopping anytime soon, so that's a natural headwind for the dollar, i would think, at some point? >> yeah, it's definitely in the short term, currency and interest rates move together, but if bond yields are going higher for a bad reason it's not a sustainable dynamic and that will run its course and go back to the equilibrium. that's crucial. >> do you see the dollar and euro parody? >> we have very, very strong technical support just around one of five, and we bounced off that in the last couple of

sessions. it really depends on the politics in europe whether they will break it or not. the italian situation is what people focus on, and if he is out of politics, we will break out and if there's a surprise outcome that he holds on to power, i think we will bounce. it's very binary what is going on in the politics in europe. >> five straight years, you will make it six? >> no, i have my own company. i am not in that ranking any more. >> you are number one in our hearts. coming up, riding the trump rally into 2017. that's right after this break. meantime let's take a look at futures, and the dow looks like

it's going to be down 23 points after a high on friday. stay tuned. enjoy your phone! you too. (inner monologue) all right, be cool. you got the amazing new iphone 7 on the house by switching to at&t... what??.... aand you got unlimited data because you have directv?? okay, just a few more steps... door! it's cool get the iphone 7 on us and unlimited data when you switch to at&t and have directv.

it's the end of the year, and looking for next year's worst to first investments and may take courage to buy. mike is here with more. >> good morning. this is some extreme bargain hundr hunting. this is not looking for under

performe performers, but this is truly worst to first. i'm talking about stock down 50%, and this is basically a demonstrated affect in markets. i am looking at those stocks and sectors that have been down at least 50% from a high, not necessarily this year but from a high, and also off tw years in a row, and perhaps as long as three or five years in a row, and it's not about a thesis about what is going to work for these. pharma, maybe one of the most controversial, and here are countries deeply out of favor and for good reasons we know about, italy, russia and turkey, and those etfs down more than 50%, and the idea here is not so much that great things are going

to happen for these groups they are so beaten down, and one quick example, the coal stocks had been down 80% and the coal etf, kol is only partially recouped all the losses. that's the kind of move we are looking for. >> in terms of the differences, though, i am sure i don't need to point out the differences between the coal sector and what could happen in specialty farming and coal had to go through a lot of restructuring and they are in theory financially better, and pharma, they went down for external nonfundamental reasons. >> right. >> it's not a policy call, however, they are priced at 3 to 7 times earnings. i don't know if they are done going down but basically the idea when the value has been compressed that much, they get spring loaded and a call option on survival of the industry. that's the bet you are making. by the way, nobody is saying

rotate your entire portfolio, and finally, in this example, uranium, i couldn't tell you why it might come back but that's the kind of play you are talking about. >> uranium. thank you. shocks of mgm resorts could rise more than 20% as it capitalized on a rebound of tourism and conventionism in vegas. and baker hughes could also get a significant boost. the report says the new company would be well positioned even if oil prices do not rise. coming up, cuba after fidel castro. what does the future hold for the island nation 90 miles from the u.s. shore. plus, the trump rally. sit stalling? investors on the job markets this friday, and more on that in just a bit.

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the future of cuba. a live report from havana straight ahead. crude realities. opec leaders gathering for a meeting this week. could the oil cartel strike a deal? >> we'll have a roundup of the retail stocks to watch as the final hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ ♪ >> announcer: live from the most powerful city in the word, new york. this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i am joe kernen, and the s&p is

down just under 5, and the nasdaq, all posting new records last week, and check out these returns since the election, and the russell gaining nearly 13% and the small cap benchmark has been up for 15 straight sessions and that's the first time it has done that since 1996, and it could have the longest rising season since 1988, and treasury yields have been rising, but they have made a big move and sort of moderated more recently, around 2.33 on the 10-year. among today's top stories, we are watching oil prices closely ahead of a key opec meeting on wednesday, and crude was down sharply on the notion of disagreement between opec countries and non-opec like russia. the iraqi oil minister says iraq

will cooperate with other opec members to reach an agreement to all, and it's higher across the board by almost 1% for oil. and gdp, and auto sales and the big one on friday, the november jobs report, and it's cyber monday, if you are not already shopping, it's a traditional day for online deals, and the retail federation reports consumers spent 3.5% less than a year yag during the holiday season. a couple stocks on the move. boeing expected to be the new target of a new world trade organization sanction, this according to the "wall street journal." the aircraft maker was awarded illegal state subsidies are for the new 777 jet. and wells fargo, separately has

been sued by employees over the mutual funds contained in the bank's retirement plans. they steered more than $7 billibil -- $3 billion to what under performed. and then at&t, unveiling a new streaming service called directv now and it happens today, and it will offer more than 100 live streaming television channels. and joe, we have had a little fun with the conviction list. >> yeah. >> why are you convicting am company like this? >> it's a loaded term.

>> very special list. >> yeah, the tried and convicted, and anyway, cuba mourning the death of fidel castro, and nearly brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. it didn't happen. nearly and brink are the same thing, right, michelle -- >> reporter: yep, 1962. >> joining us from havana, and not all of us remember that. and i kind of remember because it was a little scary, but not quite. almost. you are a glint in your grant parent's eyes? >> many went to sleep not knowing if they would wake up because that's how close they

felt the u.s. was to a nuclear war with cuba, and the worst of the tensions between the two countries and one of the reasons why to this day they are so tense despite the thawing of president obama, and now that castro is dead he has not been in charge in ten years, and the question is now that he is gone, does that mean some of the reforms, the tiny, tiny reforms that have started, will they grow, will they become more expansive? remember, the government here has complete and thorough control over the economy that would be unimaginable to post people in the world today, and for young americans not even conceivab conceivable. if bernie sanders had its way, this is what the u.s. would be like because this is a socialist economy where the government is in charge of most things. something has happened in the last year within the financial

markets invisible to most people in the world that they think is a good sign that cuba wants to reemerge in the global economy, and cuba has started settling and page back its debts, and the soviet union, for example, was one that they have settled with, and in december they had a paris club deal and this is a convention from a bygone era where all the nations get together, and there was $11 billion of outstanding debt from the 1980s, and most of it was forgiven. they made their first debt payment in october, just a few months ago, just last month, actually, of $40 million. that is a dramatic change from what they have done in the past. they have not wanted to pay debts, and they have ignored them. the next step is are they going to start to negotiate with a lot

of the debts u.s. companies have. many businesses were seized and are they going to get those settled as well, and this one step in paying debts is the first thing they are going to do if they want to rejoin the world bank, and all the things that are very traditional if you are going to be part of a modern economy. that's one of the key questions in the wake of fidel tcastro's death. i will tell ajoke, not to be funny, but to tell you the mind-set of the way cubans thought about fidel castro. for years there was a joke. it's fidel castro's 85th birthday and they give castro a tortoise as a gift. tortoises live to be 100 years old, and he says, oh, take it back, that's the problem with pets, they die before you do. many people thought he would never be gone, and now we have to ask what happens after castro, we will have to find

out. >> michelle, we thank you for that, and we will ask that question that you just asked of our next guest, the professor of government at american university. good morning to you. what does happen next in cuba? you have written fidel castro was not a fan of raul's economic policies but did not say so publicly. >> that's right, and you know, castro after he retired in 2006 was very careful never to say anything publicly that directly contradicted what his brother's policies were, but the economic reform that raul began in 2011 which is to move forward of a market socialism on the china model is something that fidel castro always rejected himself and the normalization of u.s. and cuban relations is something that fidel castro was very spectacle about, and right after president obama's visit in march, he said cuba didn't need anything from the united states, and he warned that really the

united states was never going to change, it was always going to be trying to return to a domination of cuba, and i don't think that he, himself, interfered much with his brother's decision making but there are other people in the political leadership that agreed with fidel and would like to go slow on these things, and now that he is gone i think they are in a weaker political position. >> you wrote a piece for foreign policy with the headline will history absolve fidel castro? i will ask you to answer that question now? >> castro did things that were popular, and he kicked the united states out for one, which was popular for cuba because the united states dominated it for half a century, and he gave everybody free health care and education, and he -- the result of these policies was there was a lot of support on the island. he did away with cuban -- the

free markets, and so the upper class and the middle class, most of them came to the united states. he promised free elections and did not deliver on them, so there are a lot of things that he did that over time, i think, have led to an erosion for support of the government, and the soviet-style economy he put in place did not work. >> if donald trump asked you over to trump tower today and said give me five minutes of your best advice, what would you tell him? >> i would tell him to consult widely before he changes u.s. policy. there are a lot of stakeholders involved in the policy barack obama put in place, and not least among them ordinary cubans who are in favor of better relations with the united states because it means more tourism and trade and that boosts the economy and their standard of living and even cuban dissidents, they are divided on it, and they will tell you when u.s. cuban relations are better they have more political space

for expression, and there are lots of u.s. businesses in the last two years have begun commercial deals, and hotels and those constituencies think the u.s. policy that obama put in place is actually working. >> professor, we were asking this morning what happens after fidel castro, but should we be asking what happens after raul castro? he said he will step down after 2018, and do you expect that timeline to be in place and are there succession plans to be in the works? >> there's no doubt his intention is to step down in 2018. he put in place term limits so no senior official can serve more than two five-year terms and his second term as president is up in 2018, and he is criticized other communist countries like the soviet union

for not having a plan. and there's a successor, and he's a communist party official, and he would likely be the successor if, for example, raul castro were to pass away in his sleep. >> professor, you saw the opposed statements that president obama and trump put out, and what do you think the cuban people make of that? >> if cubans -- many ordinary cubans are very worried that mr. trump will come in and undo all the things that president obama has done and throw us back to the old cold war era of hostility. his statement on the death of fidel castro reflected that more hard line view, and president obama's statement was very presidential and carefully crafted. i think one of the things that we are seeing is mr. trump is

still in the process of transition from a candidate to a president. there's a difference between campaigning and governing, and i think he will get it right eventually, but the tone of his statement was off putting, i think, to many cubans. there are still a lot of cubans in cuba that remember the older regime that still has a lot of affection as fidel castro as the founding father. sort of a grandfatherly figure to many people, and that's not true in miami, obviously, but if we are ever going to knit back together the cuban community, that is to say the cuban americans in our country and the cubans in cuba, there needs to be more mutual respect. >> thank you. >> my pleasure. coming up, from bricks to clicks, black friday in the books, and more than 22 million americans planning to shop online today. as we head to break, check out

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let's get a check on where stock futures are right now, and this is after a record-setting day across the board on friday for the industries. and the dow looking to open lower by 26, and nasdaq lower by almost 8. let's look at the dollar, the one-week dollar volatility jumping to 12.1%, and that's the highest since the trump victory. in global, political news, heading to the polls this vote on a referendum to make up on the government, and there is a proposal reducing the number of lawmakers appointed versus elected, and in an interview last night on "60 minutes," he said the reason no italian government lasts because there are too many politicians and very little gets done. >> these referendum is not a

referendum to change the democracy in italy, it's a referendum to reduce bureaucracy in italy. italy is the worst down tree for bureaucracy around the world, and this is very important, if we have a system with a lot of politicians, the consequence is 63 government changes in 70 years. >> he says a yes vote is a vote for the future and the past is not sufficient and italy is not in his words, only a museum. corporate news. a couple analyst calls. downgrading from down to under performing, and analyst say it's down, and hasbro says stock is fairly valued at current levels.

> retailers are waiting to cash in on cyber monday as shoppers shopped online on friday as well. i want to start off with, you like some of the bricks and motor retailers, william sonoma and macy's, but in terms of the retail suppliers, you like coach and ralph lauren, and people don't think about the power of the third-party platform, and that's a bigger force in retail as more and more companies go to that model. >> i think it's a future for power brands. if you have a big brand name, every time you take a sale out of macy's, every time one of the brick and more tar retailers

take one out and put it on line, the better they can set pricing and the more money they can make, because you sell it to macy's for 50 cents, when you sell it on line you can sell it for full price. my thesis has been when macy's gets down to 550 stores they are basically the show room for ralph lauren and calvin klein, depending on what the brand is, they can pull out of all the other department store-type of retailers, and run their business as an online business and make it work that way, so doesn't mean you get out, you do need showrooms and flagships because you want to keep the brand in front of the company, and you want to take it back to the store and pick it up in the store and that stuff, and the more can you sell yourself the

better off you are financially. >> and walmart.com, there's a report out by boom rang saying dew point dew point 60% of the most popular toys were co-listed on walmart and amazon and in many instances prices were lower with walmart. is it bad for everybody else in retail? >> they are the biggest competitor for amazon and i said all along walmart will be the biggest problem for amazon and amazon is the biggest problem for walmart, and however, the truth is amazon can be very successful and walmart jet can take a lot of market share from a lot of other people and maybe amazon's growth slows down a little bit because of it. think about it. this weekend, all of the growth came online. online was up about 20%, brick and mortar was probably slightly down, and total growth was 3%, and that was all driven by the

fact that 15% of the penetration is online, and it grew 20%, and so yes, i think walmart wins with jet even though some people call it a hail mary for both sides, and amazon wins because amazon has been winning for 20 years, and will continue to win and get a third of all new growth in retail and half of all new growth online and that's not going to change for a long time. we can still see a big penetration from walmart jet if they get it right. >> so looking at the square footage of retail in this country, and it's going to shrink every single year and there will be new ideas and concept to draw the consumer off of the coach into a store? >> both will be true. we will see shrinkage of footage. we are also going to see everybody that is online only be in stores, and they will be smaller stores, and amazon, they are all going to have stores, and amazon is going to have 2,000 grocery stores.

you are going to see that happen, but the net square footage has to shrink. no matter what measure you use, whether it's 23 square foot per capita, the next guy is half of whatever you use so i use the 48 number and that's the biggest number you can come up with, and when you look at great britain, they are about 23 square feet per capita, and if you add it in, the 15% online and did a conversi conversion, it's 15% so it gets bigger all the time as the online happens. we need a reduction in the number of stores and reduction in the number of malls, and the good malls will still stay, and king of prussia, it has a fabulous new luxury wing and that will work, but how many can you do. the top ten malls are the top ten malls. you can have 250 great ones, but

you can't have 1,100 great ones, which is what you have got today. you will see a reduction of malls, and 50% of the sales will be online by 2030. do you think half of your ordering is not going to be on this thing by 2030? of course it is. >> i'm already there. >> me, too. >> i shop every week, right? i shop sometimes this time of the year, every day. i never buy anything in a store. i buy everything on a phone or laptop on on an ipad, and that's where we are going to be, so whether you get it delivered to your house, and you pick it up in some other store or your store or get it delivered to your office, doesn't matter, it will still be bought online. >> thank you. coming up, rudolph apparently has a new gig this season. we will tell you why pizzas may be on a few sleds. you are watching "squawk box" on

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. samsung electronics considering splitting itself in two. the sole economic daily saying the board is meeting tomorrow and last month elliott proposed

samsung split in two. rudolph may have a new job this holiday season, delivering pizzas. dominoes japan is training reindeer to bring pies to customers in a snowy region of the country. would you say reindeers or reindeer? >> reindeer. >> and they are training it to drag a pizza-laden sled, and carrying gps to track the reindeer, and they have not decided whether the reindeer will be used for delivering. >> domino has been on the forefront of testing various things. >> i wonder if you get a free pie if it doesn't show up within 30 minutes? >> you can't order reindeer as a topping, i guess. >> why? the reindeer won't know.

>> very efficient use of resources if they did. >> it's like cannibalism. >> you think the reindeer is going to know what kind of pizza it's carrying. >> the pai and coming up, we'll break down what president-elect trump might do. that's next. ♪ today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. check out shares of time inc. the share is trading 15, up 11%. it would be a pretty interesting deal to see if that happened. a busy week ahead with economic growth, and ahead of

that we will get the read on the private sector, and the latest on home prices, and gdp auto sales and personal income and consumer spending. and "moana" topping the box office this weekend. disney is on a roll, and it released five of the year's top grossing films now, and about to release the latest "star wars" movie. >> we are joined by john outside of trump tower. >> reporter: nobody should be surprised given the nature of the campaign that donald trump ran that his transition would be bumpy, but those difficulties came into clear focus over the weekend on three different fronts. first of all, you had the attention to donald trump's conflict of interest between his business interests around the

world from the philippines to turkey and scotland and his potential duties as the president of the united states, and those have come to the fore during the transition, and jill stein is pushing the recount in wisconsin, and donald trump said yesterday on twitter to falsely claim he won the popular vote if not for million of illegal votes. there's no evidence to support that proposition. finally, the highly unusual public battle over who is going to be donald trump's secretary of state. his former campaign manager, kellyanne conway, went on television and trashed the idea that trump might pick romney. >> people feel like romney went out of his way to criticize

trump and to give him secretary of state, and i will respect that decision and support it 1,000%, but i am reflecting what the grassroots are saying. >> reporter: all of that has obscured in what normal circumstances would be a huge foreign policy challenge facing the new trump administration when he takes office, and that is what to do about cuba post fidel castro. donald trump put out statements over the weekend sharply condemning fidel castro, and hailing the news of his death, and however he has not indicated that he is going to reverse the opening that president obama engaged in in u.s.-cuban relations, and the death of fidel castro may make it easier for donald trump to sustain perhaps under different conditions that normalization of relations, guys. >> thank you. opec leaders will gather in

vienna this week to talk about cuts, and they are trending higher this morning and joining us on what the market can expect. john, a lot has happened over the weekend, and all the headlines seem to indicate that a deal or the enforcement of a deal is further and further away at this point. what is going on with the price of oil that you would think would be, you know -- well, there would be cuts or wouldn't be cuts, so they would be lower? >> we were down overnight for a time and we are dealing with the battle of the headlines now, and they kid around about chuck schumer being a dangerous person with a microphone between him, and all the opecs are here, and things are off the rail with saudi arabia and iran, and the

saudis are trying to spin things their way by saying this market may balance with or without cuts, and they may have a point but it's going to be a punishing outcome if they don't strike a deal on wednesday. no doubt about it. >> when might that take place? when might a natural supply be met? >> not until later next year, so that's the outlier scenario here, and maybe not an outlier any longer, but the saudis take it to everybody else again and announce they are going to produce full out and crash the price one more time to get everybody on their knees and to the table? >> in terms of the trade, does this tell us given the headlines and the reaction in the crud markets there's a floor under crude and it's somebody under 46? >> there is a chance they could strike a deal, and if they could see it's in their best interest to throw in, and they might, and

i think that's what you are seeing the market get scared into periodically. what happens is the fright like the comment from the iraqi oil minister recedes, and people read the tea leaves more closely, and body language and everything, and this is going to be a torturous couple of days here to be honest about what really happens here. >> let's look a few years down the road with a trillion dollars of projects getting cancels and is there going to be a spike because of the investment that is being made or that will be offset by slowing demand where we are not going to seat rise in prices, and the right decision now is to be dramatically cutting investment? >> the whole shell revolution upended this entire industry now, and their ability to be reflexive and race back into the market changes things. there's increasing analysis that we will reach peak oil demand

and not production by 2018 and 2020, and that changes things. i think for sure there should probably be one more sort of mi mini era of tightness between the technology and the move towards electric cars that people like to drive and buy and own, and it will keep this sort of on the back flip, and oil produces on the back foot, not to mention tons of investment going into iran and iraq to get them to the point that maybe where the saudis are now. there's no reason to say that only saudi arabia could produce 10 million boils a day over the next several days, and they are war-torn and scarred and lacked investment, and you don't know where we would be with those countries if they had been living under the positive environment the saudis have over the last couple of years. >> who is going to cut -- if we all agree to a cut, who is going

to cut and who is going to adhere to the cuts? >> well, can you forget libya and nigeria because of their status, right? the two countries balking the most, iraq, but more focus on iran. if they are staring down a new round of sanctions and getting squeezed by the new president, trump, and they will say why should we give up a single barrel right now when we may be facing a curtailed supply as soon as next year. they are already getting squeezed on the margins over some of their lack of undertakeings with the nuclear deal they struck, so to the extent the money funnel gets cut off and some of the deals they struck roll back and they are back in the soup, they are not going to agree to a single cutback on wednesday, no way. they have the most to lose.

>> thank you. coming up, doing business in cuba. we will break down what is next with the u.s. relations in the country after the death of fidel castro. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures backing off of a record high set on friday, but we're looking at a lower open across the board. s&p 500 looking to give up five points, and the dow looking to

open lower by seven, and we are watching the russell 2000. the small cap bench phaurpbg has been up 15 straight sessions, the first time it has done that since 1996, and if it does that today, that will be the longest time it has done that since 1988. and then achieving a value of $80 to $90 plus per share by the end of 2017. elliott management requested a meeting with the board. we'll see. let's continue about discussing the relations between cuba and the u.s. joining us, great to see you, i think of so many different -- it's very nuance, so many things

to consider. number one, the rest of the world is going to go full speed ahead with this, and so obviously what we do, you have to view it that way, but i keep coming back to the people that are likely not going to get any recourse for the property loss, whether we do anything with dissidents still being jailed. is there any way we can extract more than what we got in the original deal? >> this is a deal process that is ongoing. as far as the property claims are concerned, there are two types of claims on the part of the united states, and those claims are on behalf with respect to properties that were appropriated with the castro government, and then there are lots of claims by cuban americans, and cubans who left cuba whose property was also taken. cuba with respect to the u.s. claims, and there's a history, a precedent for cuba negotiating

with other countries and clearly because of the participation of u.s. companies in the cuban economy, there are many more claims by u.s. companies, but there's a president for doing deals with the cubans. >> how should we err? should we err on the side of maybe eventually democracy and freedom come about through engagement and therefore we kind of abandon the pleas from people that were wronged or pleas from people continuing to be wronged? do we put that on the back burner and say the ends justify the means and let's not worry about that because we are going to help the cuban people by engaging? is that the way to do it? >> the u.s. policy with respect to any country should be to promote our values, and if we try to insist as we have over the last 55 years that the cubans have to have free and open elections within two years, then we are probably going to fail as we have in the past.

>> maybe negotiating with strength, because maybe we did not negotiate with strength in the deal a couple years ago? >> the embargo is having a negative affect in the cuban economy. >> did we use leverage a few years ago? >> i think the president, first of all, wanted to try to use political space in order to be able for castro to negotiate with united states? >> any evidence he is negotiating in good faith with the open space or did he ramp up all the abuses we have been worried about? >> it has been a frustrating process. no question about that. the cubans -- people talked about the concessions we made. i don't see a lot of concessions if at the same time we are getting benefits. we are allowing more u.s. visitors to cuba, and more u.s. companies to explore there, and

by definition means if americans want to travel to cuba that's a benefit we are providing for american citizens, and the vast majority changes if the adjustments help cubans and at the same time helping u.s. interests, and polling shows cuban americans say they want to see more engagement with cuba so his policies are aimed at promoting those interests. >> worried about polls. >> indeed. that's what leadership is about. >> i understand. you know what i mean. i see a lot of polls. do they know how to do them with cell phones? i am worried about the methodology at this point. it's the line you try to walk between old line concerns and sort of a whole new generation that was not wrong and therefore they do not feel wrong, but i guess everybody eventually,

everybody that felt wrong, eventually they go in the way of castro, and i'm not saying you do it punitively, but seems like you could get more out of this. >> if we continue to think about the grievances of the past, where do we start? in 1959 when the castro government came in and caused a lot of pain. >> would you -- should the president go to the funeral? should a high-ranking u.s. official go to the funeral? >> i don't know the protocol. i will leave that up to the president of the united states. >> there's a lot of bad blood. >> yeah, there is. the cubans will tell you there's a lot of bad blood there. >> newance.

>> we should use the leverage. with respect to cuba or wall street, everybody should use the leverage in order to maximize their results. >> thank you, and we appreciate your time this morning. >> my pleasure. when we return we will head down to the new york stock exchange, and jim cramer will join us live and we will get his take on stories and stocks to watch, and we are in the red, and the dow opening 30 points off, and the s&p 500 off about 5 points. back in a bit.

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let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. jim, initially i saw greatest black friday ever, and then has it been moderated? or what was it? >> you know, i just think we had adobe numbers, which i think are very real because they actually have the data and they seem very strong. and then some other guys i think didn't really have the great data adobe had. i'm going with strong because it's cold, they have the right merchandise and because i think there's a sense once post election whether you like it or not, things are better. and i think people want to fight this, go right ahead. it's very hard to fight. >> someone sent in, i think they

cc'd you on this on twitter, the goldman report out on august 1st next three months stocks, no, stocks are going to be real iffy for the next three months. >> yeah, you know, that goldman recommendation the sell of caterpillar in the 60s, looking for 50 price. you know f caterpillar splits, they are going to be dead right. i cannot even tell you how dead right they're going to be. but it's got to split. otherwise ill advised downgrade. >> really -- maybe we need to do more of that, jim. maybe we need to actually remember what people say and then revisit it next time they're saying something so we know whether to listen again. >> yeah, look, are the bank stocks up too much? not if the fed raises rates. are the semiconductor stocks up too much? not if they continue to do these takeovers. are these technology stocks up too much? i mean cognizant today, elliot sends them a letter saying you're worth 80.90.

there's just a juggernaut going on. it absolutely can halt on any given moment, but joe, they're not running the prices back to where they were before election day. it's just not happening. >> i just saw something on a competing website not at cnbc.com, but said to get 5% annually for the next ten years you'll have to be really lucky in the s&p to get 5% annually. that's, what, a demographically or productivity? what do you think they're talking about? >> lucky is, you know, you got an 18, the dealer's showing two face cards and you hit and you get a three. i mean, that's lucky. honestly, can we leave that to the casino? >> right. but we've been negative for a long time. it's hard to turn an -- >> let's leave lucky if green bay runs the table. leave lucky to sports. this is not about sports. it's about earnings, about repatriation, it's about deals to break up gridlock.

it's about the idea that somebody can come up with a plan and money comes back and we get 4% growth. it's not about luck. i mean, really, luck is just -- luck is not the equation here. >> all right, jimbo, thank you. we'll see you in a couple minutes. tonight on "mad money" on jim's show don't miss interview with paypal ceo dan schulman, as you know, every night at 6:00 eastern. our guest host this morning peter boockvar. what i love most

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our guest host this morning peter boockvar, chief market analyst at the lindsey group and cnbc contributor, peter, this is going to be the first full week of trading in a couple weeks. we are at record highs. what are you expecting? >> i think the market in 2017 as we look towards that is going to be determined by where interest rates go. i believe that this was the third bubble of the past 15 years in global bond markets. i think -- i'm optimistic about a lot of the things trump is going to do in terms of taxes and regulatory policies, but i cannot ignore the leaking of the bond bubble if it continues, if we get a dramatic rise in interest rates further in 2017, i think it would be naive to think that would not have an impact. >> we've seen a dramatic rise already within the past month.

>> i think if the 10-year yield goes closer to nominal gdp is growing, a 3% to 4% type interest rate. grant it that's historically low but coming off a 1.5% level that move would be rather dramatic. >> when does it -- you know how a balloon can leak slowly. >> that would be the hope. >> you ever blown one up and let it go and what if that were to -- you know, when it comes out and goes flying across the room. what if that were to happen to the bond market? is it possible? >> i think it depends on the fed. the fed if dragging feet in interest rates the market will do it for them. i don't think that's a position they want to get in. but if they get more aggressive, imagine if the economy goes into recession and the stuff janet yellen is going to hear from trump. >> at p point it's a slow leak. >> well, a 50-point base increase -- >> small amount relative. >> exactly. so i think that's going to be the key determinant of stock prices in 2017.

2018, 2019, i think we can focus more on the policies of trump but we've got to get past this bond bubble. >> if we like weak dollar so much for exports, why don't we -- there are advantages to a strong dollar, aren't there? that's why every treasury secretary since -- >> i want a stable dollar. that's what i want. i think these short moves up -- >> isn't a strong dollar -- isn't our purchasing power around the globe better? >> yeah, when i say stable, strong but stable. i don't think you ever want to see a rising dollar because of the implications. you want stable currencies around the world just because it's easier to trade. >> but taking on a bad connotation because we've heard so much from these ceos and multinationals. >> and people ignore we import more than we export. so we benefit more from a rising dollar than a falling dollar, but i want a stable dollar. makes it much easier to plan if you're a businessman. >> we could certainly devalue it and get into the same game everybody else is playing. >> trump, if he wants to bring back a lot of these manufacturing jobs, he's going to have to struggle the strong

dollar with that desire. >> folks at carrier, we don't have many three-hour guest hosts anymore. >> i appreciate the invite, really. >> thanks for hanging out. >> melissa lee, thank you for hanging out. >> we'll see you -- >> yes, wednesday, big day. >> wednesday adp and friday jobs. join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the financial market. italian referendum and keep an eye on retail and cyber monday. europe's in the red. 10-year 2.32 is lower than the 2.4 we fwot on friday. road map begins with record highs in stocks. trump rally enters its fourth week as we see