Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 28, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

5:00 pm
this month. now only down 5% for the year. really participating in the bank rally that is the trump trade. >> indeed. rob, always good to see you. >> pleasure to be here. >> come back anytime. the three of us will be back tomorrow on cl"closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee. pete najarian, brian kelly, dan nathan, and guy adami. tonight on fast the huge run in small cap stocks just took a breather today. but a top chart expert says the run has much more room to go. plus, the hedge fund manager to called oil's plunge to $30 is back with an even bolder call ahead of the opec meeting this week. he'll be here. later, it is the ultimate throwback trade. the market is partying like it's the 1980s all over again following trump's win. we'll tell you the names that could soon rally off this retro trend. first, we start off with the trump rally taking a pause today
5:01 pm
and a big part of that was because investors rang the rangstrang st register in stocks. is it time to take profits in this group? guy? >> let's talk about two names. good to have you. hope everybody had a great long weekend. >> happy gobble gobble turkey day. >> welcome to monday. the short answer is many of these names, yes, and we talked about this last tuesday. two names specifically. look at j.w. nordstrom. look at the move its had since the middle of the year when it was a $35 stock. all the shorts covered. last week when it got to $60, we said, folks, the short covering has happened at 19 times earnings. much too expensive. ring the ridegister. down 3%. similar story in macy's. macy's is a little more compelling on a valuation basis but the charts look identical.
5:02 pm
massive double tops in both going back from earlier this year. so when those two names specifically it is time to ring the register. >> was this the buy the rumor of good or decent black friday sales and sell the news or was it a run off the trump rally and now people are saying, maybe we should take a pause and see where we are? >> c, all of the above. >> that's fair. >> but to guy's point, you had a strongly uptrending market since the middle of july. it's not like this was a two-week trade. these names had been rallying for a while now, so why wouldn't you? okay, great, we got some good news possibly over the weekend that you're going to have some good sales. why wouldn't you take some off the table? i think that actually goes from the broader market as well. there's nothing wrong with just taking a breather or a pause. we've had a tremendous run. >> what's really interesting today, amazon was down nearly 2%. that was the one that all the reports, all the guys who walk malls and they were talking about what was going on at the department stores, it seemed like a lot of brick and mortar stuff was disappointing. we all probably bought something
5:03 pm
on amazon this weekend from our mobile device. they're just eating the rest of it. when you add up all the rest of the names, all their sales -- >> i can think of one person. >> one absolutely has not. >> when you add up all of those department stores and their sales, it doesn't add up to amazon's expected $110 million in sales this year. they're going away. you got here for the death rattle. i would be out of them. they don't all need to exist, the dillard's -- >> the death rattle of the department stores because of amazon. >> of course. i mean, listen, there's going to be guys that have the omni channel thing figured out and they'll win but all these brands don't need to exist. >> a couple examples i think are going to do well. when you loong at the earnings, how about target, how about best buy? two minnesota companies that have done an extremely good job. you go back to earnings, phenomenal. some of the growth they were able to show within the bricks and mortmortar, but how about ie
5:04 pm
cyber world. 21%, 24% growth. that says a lot. they are able to compete. if you remember, years ago best buy was -- they were put down and they were in a grave because they couldn't compete with with sam zon. >> i don't disagree with best buy and i don't exactly get what's going on there. game stop too but they've also taken out a lot of competition along the way. but there still needs to be a presence in bricks and mortar for all intents and purposes. so best buy is doing something right. let's go to -- >> how about -- does bed, bath, and beyond need to exist? target had a couple horrible years and they got the omni channel thing wrong and they were up in canada and losing money up there. they're starting to get things -- >> brian came in and switched thing around and went much more towards that and they were supposedly again dead just a month or two ago. but they can't do anything in grocery. look what walmart is doing versus target. >> it hurt their numbers last quarter. they just reported that. they just spent $3.1 billion to buy jet, and they had no sales. that company had less than a half a billion -- >> you're going to walmart.
5:05 pm
i was sticking with target. when i'm talking about target what i think is so interesting is they were given up for dead because they couldn't compete with walmart when it came to groceries. now all of a sudden the focus goes back to what is their real business? and a lot of that was back to school and some of it was the electronics. apple tailwinds there as well. there's a lot of things that were -- >> in terms of walmart though and amazon for that matter, is it possible that amazon wins but also walmart wins. they overlap more in terms of the most popular items sold on both platforms and they have been priced competitive. >> i saw you on that morning show this morning and they were saying how amazon is basically doubles everybody else in terms of -- >> that's fair, but you could still move the needle, correct? >> you can move the needle, but i'm sort of with pete on the target/walmart argument. >> you would rather -- >> i'm not playing the game but if you want to play the game -- >> that's what i'm doing. >> walmart should not trade in my opinion at a premium to target. it trades at 16 1/2 times
5:06 pm
forward earnings. if you go to the last quarter, they seem to be figuring things out. i think target has room -- >> i would go back to what we said at the top of the show. they may be the winners, but their stock price may not. they've already had the run. >> who is they? >> let's say it's what is your name. let's say it's amazon. let's say it's target. anyone you pick and say this is going to be the winner in retail. if you look at almost every single one of these charts probably with the exception of walmart -- with amazon, almost all have had massive rallies. so just be careful when you're doing this analysis that you look at the stock price because we're buying price. we're not buying the store. >> it's about the fundamentals right? when you talk about price you look at target. it's trading 13, 14 times earnings. some of the other names are 19, 20, 23. macy's nordstrom. i don't think you need to chase those names. i don't even think you have to chase necessarily best buy and target but i think -- because that's been in the last two weeks. this isn't the last couple months. this is the last two weeks, ever since they came out with earnings. i think those are the
5:07 pm
opportunities you're looking for on a pullback. >> so on a day like today where a lot of people are out there ringing the register on retail, ringing the register or taking a pause on some of the biggest advancing sectors from the trump rally, what were you doing? >> give it to me. >> we haven't talked about the home depots and the lowe's. i think they're counter trend rallies. i think they can be sold. walmart filled in that earnings gap. i think that can be sold. if you think that target is on the shift, some sort of shift, you buy it on pullbacks. but to b.k.'s point, i don't think you buy it here. >> what are you doing today, pete zm. >> i found myself getting back involved in some of the metal names, and you probably saw some of that paper in there as well. you look at what steel has done, iron ore has done and you look over at the copper names with, freeport. the last couple weeks there's a lot of different reasons behind some of this. some of it will be demand,
5:08 pm
tariff related, whatever. i think some of the names actually have plenty more upside. we've already seen some of the moves to the upside. i don't think it's over and i think there's opportunities. and by the way, when volatility gets this cheap, we barely got over 13 today on the vix. volatility in the broader scope of the market is extremely low. that also means it transcends over into some of the option world. very, very low in some of the names as well. i think there's tremendous upside potential in some of those names. >> what were you trading? >> i pared back on a lot of things. i was taking a breather, particularly on xlf. i sold out of that. that was something -- >> i bought that today. >> i sold it to you. >> what did you buy? like 79 of those? >> i bought the options. >> i took profit on xlf. could it go higher? absolutely. >> that's a good profit taking move. >> i got an italian referendum coming up. if there's a problem there, the european banks could be a problem. why not take the profit. the other thing is i bought gold. i bought gdx, slv. i think those names actually are
5:09 pm
really interesting places, particularly if you're talking about inflation coming in the future. you want to be in that. >> retail wasn't the whole thing tabing a breather today. the huge and historic run in small caps also took a break. our next guest says the charts could be pointing to some big league gains. let's check in with the chart master himself carter braxton worth who is over at the smart board. >> we're going to look at the russell, but first, guy, i didn't buy anything on amazon either. >> my man. >> ewe're all good. >> he's probably been on amazon. >> i don't think so. we know we've had something that is very rare, which is a 15 consecutive day up move in the russell 2000. it's only happened four times since the inception of the index. what i wanted to look at is what happens after that, and it does imply higher prices, but it's all in the context of something that was a real loser simply catching up with the s&p, and i think that's important. a 15-day streak was broken. the russell was down. now, these are the four other times in history, and what i
5:10 pm
have is it's one weak performance after that circumstance has happened. here are the dates. it was '79, '85, '88, and then one more in '96 and here is our current one. if you look at the average gin, it is quite consistent. russell up on a one week, one month, three month, nine month basis but it's not all that robust and the other thing is this is the one week. now, we're into the one week now. this is day one, and we're down 1.2%. so we'll see if it's able to keep up. but what we do know is it's not such an epic run for the russell making all-time highs as it is a catch-up trade having lagged so badly. so first let's look at the overbought condition. five-year chart of the russell on the top and a 14-day rsi. this is, of course, the 30 level and this is the 70 level. that's how sort of an overbought, over sold condition works and we hit 81 here. that's the highest level at any point in five years, and, of course, we know today it's down. which would be in line with what
5:11 pm
an overbought condition is all about. now, there's beta here right? more beta than the market. about a 1.2. you expect an overshoot russell at the top and undershoot on the bottom and here we have yet another overshoot. so from low to high it's up 16% versus the s&p up 6. the question is having gone 15 days in a row, having reached an overbought condition on the rsi, how much upside is there? i think there's more and the stats suggest that, but it's all in the context of this. peak performance for the russell 2,000 was in january of 2014. january 15, january 16. we're about to be january 17. this index while it's making all-time highs is nowhere near to its relative high. any further progress will simply be getting it back in line with the s&p, which is to say it's been a disaster of a pick. no alpha by being in small cap versus large and probably a little bit more catch-up before
5:12 pm
it's done. >> okay. so more catch-up here. should we invite carter over? >> that's a lot to digest. >> maybe guy can teach him how to get on amazon. >> the price is right. come on down. >> come on down. >> handsome man, carter worth. right or wrong? >> what? >> you heard me. handsome man. >> yeah, baby. >> wearing my blazer. >> your forecast for -- take down at the desk. forecast for the russell 2000 and where it goes. is that dependent on where the s&p 500 goes? >> it's not. one thing we have to say is the parts compose the whole, and the entire cap of the russell 2000 is $1.9 trillion. the top four stocks in the s&p is equal to that. these are catching up. remember, we had a bear market. a peak to trough decline was 27% in the russell. and so this ricochet is simply a function of the preceding wipeout and yet it's only just getting back to and still not there with the overall market. >> i heard an argument that
5:13 pm
small cap stocks don't have the headwinds of the strengthening dollar but they're much heavily levered than the larger cap stocks. when you look at the underperformance, sometimes it makes a little sense when you look at the fact rates have moved quickly off the lows and -- >> the financials are a big component. >> correct. so to me that may balance each other out. to me that breakout level looks like probably a better entry than buying it here. do you see it that way? >> it's juxtaposing two things which are in conflict. that data after this rare circumstance all suggests higher but the overbought condition suggests you should be sort of fading it. my hunch is it's not so important for the overall market, that it still will catch up and outperform the market but it's not going to help really solve any problems for the s&p because what we're seeing is some of the big names like amazon and some of these others are just not acting well. >> carter, thank you. thank you for coming over to the desk. would you be -- >> no. >> a buyer of -- no, because i
5:14 pm
sold it last week. that was one of my trades after the election. i got into iwm. for me if you look at carter's work there, it's more about time than price. we have this period of time that we need to work off the overbought condition, wharf yte you want to call it but it's probably another week or two before i'd even look at it again because you want to work some of that speculation and euphoria off. >> still ahead disney having one of the best openings of all time and pushing them towards the best nearly box office total of all time but will espn ruin its box office bounce? plus, call it the donald trump throwback trade. the thames that are surging like it's 1980 all over again and why it's not too late to buy them. and today's market mystery. why are shares of underarmor jumping so much on a simply ticker change? much more "fast money" ahead. one of millions of orders on this company's servers.
5:15 pm
accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. [and her new business: i do, to jeanetgo. jeanette was excellent at marrying people. but had trouble getting paid. not a good time, jeanette. even worse. now i'm uncomfortable. but here's the good news, jeanette got quickbooks. send that invoice, jeanette. looks like they viewed it. and, ta-da! paid twice as fast.
5:16 pm
oh, she's an efficient officiant. way to grow, jeanette. get paid twice as fast. visit quickbooks-dot-com.
5:17 pm
welcome back to "fast money." another blockbuster weekend for disney. "moana" sweeping the box office breaking at $81 million. disney continues to dominate as it's on track to break an industrywide record at the box office for the year. the espn unit is still
5:18 pm
struggling. sports network ended fiscal 2016 with 90 million subscribers, a loss of 2 million for the year and that's down from 100 million in 2010. pete? >> and they've been losing approximately 300,000 per month. i mean, it's pretty unbelievable. it's actually extraordinary to me. and then you go to october and they lost supposedly 600,000 subs. so was a lot of that the election effect? that could be some part of that. also, there was probably a little bit of a kickback. a lot of people are talking about this anyhow, the colin kaepernick thing. that really sort of angered a lot of people as well. so i think that makes some sense that maybe that accelerated things a little, but i think espn is a bit of a problem, and the reason i say that is, and we've known this for a long time, but it really does come down to they've paid up front for a lot of the different content that they've got, and if they start losing more and more of the advertising dollars that are coming into that because they're losing subs and they're losing eyeballs, you look at the monday night football numbers, i know i'm the guy on the desk who does all that.
5:19 pm
the numbers for monday night football are absolutely awful, and it's something that they've got to get corrected. they're losing talent. there's a lot of different things going on at espn that are negatives but when you look over at the other side of things, they have done a great job with some of their pictures that they've been putting out. >> espn is -- >> this was the crown jewel, and in some regards maybe it still could be, but they've got to get things flipped around in a hurry so that doesn't continue -- >> or spin it off. >> or spin it off. >> separate it. >> i don't know. the time to spin it off -- with that said, november 10th, they reported earnings. stock closeed at $94.95. they missed badly on revenue. didn't look good. the stock was trading with a 91 handle in the aftermarket. then bob iger, the genius that he is, same to assuage fears of
5:20 pm
investors. not a great quarter. he said a lot of things people wanted to hear. stock has rallied since. deutsche bank just upgraded the stock to a 108 price target. i don't get it here. i think it's gotten ahead of its skis but price is truth in my opinion so maybe it does continue to lally frrally from . >> underarmor getting a boost after the company announces they will shift their class c. it's class a shares will now move to a new ticker uaa. the change is set to take place at the beginning of december, but this doesn't really change any of the voting rights for shareholders. it's a ticker symbol adjustment. so why do we see such a big move today in the c shares? >> the c shares were issued in the spring as part of a special dividend. therefore, they started trading at a big discount to the a shares because they did not have the voting rights. the founder owns most of the voting rights and then the a shares have some of the voting rights. it's all a bit confusing.
5:21 pm
i hate the dot c or the dot a or anything like that. i think they are simplifying it for retail investors but i think the other issue is the spread between the a and the c was way too wide. if you look at google there's only a 2.5 spread between those for the voting shares. to me i think that gap kind of narrowed because of the simplification of it and i think, b.k., you said it would be used for stock based compensation. >> presumably the employees will not sell that if it's at a 20% discount. you had hedge funds that were short one, long the other, and -- not had to unwind, they unwound it at a profit. it's still very confusing and it's not clear to me that just changing the ticker symbol does much fundamentally. >> i understand on theory, but if you weren't an investor out there, do the c shares today look any different from the v shares before the ticker symbol changed? the voting rights are the same.
5:22 pm
fundamentally they are the same shares. so why is it -- if you're looking at it as a trade yourself, you're not some hedge fund arm trageing between a and c. >> they will buy back shares to offset dilution from that, so that would be one of the reasons you could see the spread tigh n tighteni tightening. >> it's the regis thing we play when dan says something intelligent. >> still ahead, the hund faedge manager who called the $30 oil is back with a bolder call. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here is what else is coming up on "fast." >> it must be some kind of hot tub time machine. >> it could be. because since the election of donald trump the market is in a 1980s time warp which means lots of winning trades for your portfolio. we'll explain. plus, missed the trump rally?
5:23 pm
well, no worries because we've got five stocks under 10 bucks that are surging in the trump trade. the names when "fast money" returns. if you're on medicare, remember, the open enrollment period is here. the time to choose your medicare coverage begins october 15th and ends december 7th. so call unitedhealthcare to enroll... in a plan that could give you the benefits and stability you're looking for, an aarp medicarecomplete plan insured through unitedhealthcare. what makes it complete? it can combine medicare parts a and b, which is your hospital and doctor coverage with part d prescription drug coverage, and more, all in one simple plan for a low monthly premium or in some areas, no plan premium at all. an aarp medicarecomplete plan offers you benefits like an annual physical, preventive screenings and most immunizations all for a $0 copay. you'll also have access to a local network of doctors and much more.
5:24 pm
you can get routine vision and hearing coverage, a fitness membership to help you stay active, and worldwide emergency care. for prescriptions, you'll pay the plan's lowest price, whether it's your co-pay or the pharmacy price. or pay zero dollars for a 90-day supply of your tier 1 and tier 2 drugs, delivered right to your door. in fact, our medicare advantage plan members saved an average of over $4,500 last year. now is the time to look at your options. start getting the benefits of an aarp medicarecomplete plan insured through unitedhealthcare. unitedhealthcare has been helping medicare beneficiaries for over 30 years. we'll connect you with the right people, help schedule your appointments, and with renew by unitedhealthcare, you can learn about healthy living and earn rewards, too. remember, medicare open enrollment ends december 7th. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicarecomplete plan. you can even enroll right over the phone.
5:25 pm
don't wait. call unitedhealthcare or go online now. ♪ ferris bueller. where is that fill snm. >> chicago, illinois. >> ding. >> correct. >> so i have one observation today. i think --
5:26 pm
5:27 pm
5:28 pm
three, two, one. happy new year. ♪ don't you >> if you feel like you're living in a 1985 time warp, you're not alone. that's because president-elect donald trump is fueling the ultimate '80s flashback. from comparisons to ronald reagan to proposed tax cuts for the rich and a surging stock market, many are likening the new trump era to the decades of deck kands. cnbc's wealth reporter robert frank tells the story. >> reporter: it was the age of
5:29 pm
dynasty and dell lorians, deficits and the donald. and now the new billionaire in chief is bringing back the '80s, especially for the wealthy. >> my new game is trump, the game. >> reporter: president-elect donald trump has proposed tax cuts, deregulation, and deficit spending that recall many of the policies of the go go reagan years. >> america, go for it. >> reporter: trump won using reagan's 1980 slogan let's make america great again, and his tax cuts would be the biggest windfall for the wealthy since reagan's 1986 tax reform. the top 1% would see a 14% rise in after tax income under the trump plan while the middle and lower earners would get 1% to 2%. no one is calling it trickle down this time around, bub the potential of putting more money n into the pockets of the wealthy has already helped stocks, the
5:30 pm
ashth market, high-end real estate, and luxury goods. ferrari sales are surging. the company recently raising its outlook. even delorean is planning to make and sell new cars again. >> are you telling me you built a time machine out of a delorean? >> sotheby's is up on strong sales of multimillion dollar picassos and rel realtors report pent up demand. some designers say big shoulder pads may be back with '80s glamour after years of stealth wealth, trump's fondness for excess from his gold plated penthouse to private boeing 757 may bring back a little gordon gekko. >> greed, for lack of a better word, is good. >> robin leech saying, quote, in the next four years it will be okay to be rich again. >> i'm robin leech with those
5:31 pm
champagne wishes and caviar dreams. >> reporter: we'll see whether those champagne wishes and caviar dreams also return. >> so that was trade the '80s. we have some '80s glasses these guys are sporting. dan, don't be a curmudgeon. he loves the pink glasses. we have talked about before policy that is could benefit the rich that maybe it is a rich person's -- there's a rich person's trade right now. guy, you pointed to bid. >> i will point to it again. i do still like it. i know the stock is doubled. i think it's trading 39 bucks. people say maybe 20 times forward earnings it's too expensive. the art market might come back with a vengeance. last week or a week and a half ago an edward munch, i know you're big on that thing, sold -- what are you making a face? >> i'm looking at -- >> this is stock ripe for an
5:32 pm
activist. 23% short interest. i'm telling you if the art market comes back even this much, sotheby's is a $50 stock currently trading 39 bucks. >> what would you say, dan about that premise that it's like an '80s wealth come back? >> i think there's a bigger issue. the '80s and all that tax cuts and the deficit spending led to a really deep recession in 1990 through 1992 or so and when think about it, we're eight years on our own recession and interest rates are much, much lower than they were. so you could have this parabolic move. you could have this aggressive growth in the economy. it's not likely to be lasting. just real quickly, hey, listen, apple, you could say had a rich people problem. they sold 650, $700 iphones to every person in north america or europe who wanted them. this would be great i think for their sales of high-end products. >> so there's no rich person's trade in your view. there's no '80s comeback trade in your view? >> i don't feel good about cutting taxes for the rich and cutting all this spending. i know a lot of you guys do.
5:33 pm
>> that's not the point. >> if that is the situation and there are tax cuts and there's more money in people's pockets, particularly the rich, then what? >> but this is not the '80s. >> -- might perform. >> but for only a short time. i'm more in dan's camp in that this is probably a short-term type of phenomena. you had 13% interest rates. a dollar that was getting stronger but no international debt. it's a very different economic landscape than it was in the 1980s. so i don't buy it for one bit. >> we're wearing these crazy glasses because we're doing a segment on the '80s. pete, what is your trade? it seems you disagree with these two guys. >> i'm not saying you're completely wrong but what i'm saying is there are trades out of this whole thing because of what's going on and i think one of the other trades -- you bring up bid. how about something like a tiffany? trading at 22 times. great -- you look at the dividend yield, a great yield out of this thing. wouldn't that be somewhere if
5:34 pm
you can't accord the blue box yourself, how about the stock? >> i'm going to go with no on that. all the growth is coming out of asia and you're talking about a global growth -- if all the money is coming back to the u.s. i don't think the u.s. consumer and u.s. wealthy will make up for the loss. >> plus one. >> what does that mean? >> plus one. >> he joins b.k. >> we're in the '80s right now. >> can i ask you a question? >> of course. >> if we had met in the '80s, do you think you would have liked me? it's binary, yes or no. >> no. i mean what's our age difference? >> that hurts. >> that age difference in the '80s would have been enormous. >> that's a good point. mentally that's what i'm saying. >> it's really not my question but it's a fair point. >> it was your question. sticking with the '80s, that is miami vice. but coming up, the man who predicted the rise and fall of crude oil is back to tell us
5:35 pm
where he see it is going next. plus, directv with a new low cost bundle. it might not be a bad thing for cable stocks. later, we have the five surging stocks you can own for less than 10 bucks a share. the names and much more when "fast money" returns. you can take those glasses off. >> i thought you looked great. i'm only in my 60's. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan.
5:36 pm
[ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. to me, relationships matter. i've been with my doctor for 12 years. now i know i'll be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. so don't wait. call now and request this free decision guide to help you better understand medicare... and which aarp medicare supplement plan might be best for you. there's a wide range to choose from.
5:37 pm
we love to travel - and there's so much more to see. so we found a plan that can travel with us. anywhere in the country. [ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. remember, all medicare supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now - and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is.
5:38 pm
welcome back to "fast money." crude oil settling up 2% as opec members squabble over whether to cut production. cnbc's jackie deangelis has more on this developing story. >> good evening to you. it feels like groundhog day here. what will opec do? well, they told the market it would get a 750,000 barrel cut two months ago but discord and inability to find consensus casting doubt over this deal. in fact, just this weekend the saudi arabian energy minister saying that the rebalance will happen with or without a production cut from the group. perhaps setting us up for a no deal scenario after all of this. that would be a big shock to the market. most participants think we will get something. what it looks like is where the opinions start to differ. at this point to get prices over $50, i'm told the expectation is that you get a steeper cut than
5:39 pm
previously announced along the lines of something like a million barrels or more, but at the same time if we get the promised 750,000, you're going to see a price pop, then a gradual sell-off when the market realizes that opec output has actually gone up so the cut isn't really that meaningful. if no action is taken, expect a steep price drop, low 40s initially, under $40 a barrel with some time. that's as we get deeper into the winter season. and that wouldn't necessarily be an overreaction. it would just be a reality check that we're still working through a big global supply glut and something has got to give. melissa? >> thank you very much, jackie deangelis. just before the 2015 oil crash, mark of morgan creek capital said oil could hit 30 bucks a barrel. he was right. he joins us with his opec call. great to have you back. >> how are you? >> what were you expecting in terms of what comes out of opec and how does oil react? >> yeah. this is a tough call. i would say it's -- everyone
5:40 pm
thinks it's going to happen so, therefore, it's probably not going to happen. i think that saudi's finally figured out that herding cats is just too hard and they were going to have to take the entire cut on their back. iran has said they don't want to cut. iraq said no, then they said yes. russia said, well, as soon as we get our production up, then we'll cut. so i think they're going to end up doing nothing. i think that's going to surprise a lot of people, but i think what people are missing is that the market is rebalancing as the saudi minister said over the weekend, and i think we'll get a short-term shock down and then we'll start to head back up towards the end of the year. >> so short term you see perhaps an opportunity. assuming on the back of a lower oil price out of this meeting if nothing happens then we're going to see it drift lower or a leg down in oil stocks but that could be short term as well? give me your playbook as to how you're thinking about this as a trade. >> i think you're starting to
5:41 pm
see that today. they took some of the permian basin names out in the backyard and beat them up a little bit down 4% or 5%, and, look, when things go on sale, stay in the store and buy them. so as those stocks in the permian basin, rsp permian, fang, my favorite diamondback energy, i would say you should buy fang instead of facebook, amazon, netflix, and google. parsley energy. there's a number of companies that are pxd, pier in, there are a lot of great companies operating in the permian basis. what i think saudi arabia did two years ago is they made a mistake. they didn't cut. they should have cut. they would have kept swing producer status. they abdicated that role to the permian basis. they thought they could kill off shale with $50 oil but these shale guys are smart and they have great technology and they are making good money at $40 and $50 oil. so i think short term we'll get probably down in the high 30s,
5:42 pm
low 40s, but that's a great buying opportunity for these oil stocks. >> mark, it's brian kelly. i'm curious, you just kind of alluded to it a bit, but these permian basin names, do they need a sustained rally in oil or is it okay if we stay between $40 and $60? >> $40 and $60 is great and i love talking to the brian kelly i like this year for a notre dame guy here. so it's exciting to see, you know, a normal trading range because what it does is it takes out the marginal producers. there are a lot of really sketchy projects that were going on all around the world, some deep water projects, some, you know, heavy oil projects, and those are all off the table if we stay between $40 and $60, and between $50 and $60, these guys in the permian will mint money. they'll make a lot of money. >> what's the risk factor to this scenario? i mean, everybody is expecting a stronger dollar. is that going to roil what you
5:43 pm
think is going to happen with energy prices and, therefore, energy equities? >> melissa, that's a fantastic, really important question. you know, the dollar and oil really are the same trade for the last two years. we've been saying internally really the only thing you got to get right is the direction of the dollar. we have a different opinion on the dollar. a lot of people don't like my view on this. we think the dollar has peaked. we think it's going to head lower. we think all the talk of deficit spending and increasing debt next year actually puts pressure on the dollar, not the opposite. so we think the dollar is going to decline going forward and we think that's going to be good for oil and commodities. >> mark, thanks so much. good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> morgan creek capital. what do we think of mark's prediction? >> well, he thinks short term lower but up at the end of the year. the end of the year is coming pretty quickly. i'll say this, if the market moves sideways from here if you look at two names specifically, he mentioned pxd, we'll talk
5:44 pm
about them quickly. you're not buying it on valuation but the fact that any -- these are highly levered companies to his point. if it holds 170, pxd is a buy and apc has been off to the races since they bought freeport-mcmoran's gulf of mexico properties a few months ago. i like that one as well against 60 bucks. >> if i'm at home i'm thinking parsley energy. those are very levered names, correct, to the permian basin. >> they are. >> to shale. would integrateds -- if you believe this thesis, could integrateds be your better bet? >> if you want to get the dividend. for me i'm long clr in the oil space because that's going be to much levered play on oil. so if you want my playbook, i know pete loves playbooks, i would say pate for a sell-off in oil -- or wait for bad news on oil. let's say opec doesn't do a deal and oil goes up, then you buy these names hand over fist. >> one of the beta names in oil actually of the big integrated names is conocophillips which
5:45 pm
got an upgrade today from goldman sachs. now, it's a beta mover. it will move. the problem is once oil starts to slow back down again, that name is just going to sit while you might see conoco -- excuse me, chevron and exxon moving to the upside. >> what do you say about the oil trade? >> today with crude oil out a lot of equities were down. i thought that was interesting. we'll talk about some activity we saw in the options market, mel? >> maybe we will. >> it seems like it's friday. >> hold on -- >> hold on? >> it's option actions time. dan, what's the action? >> today xle and the xop, the energy etfs there was a lot of put buying. it looked to be short-term hedging in front of this opec meeting but there was one name, halliburton, that caught my eye. put volume was three times that of calls and there was one trade in particular that caught my eye. there was a buyer of 5,000 in december 49 puts, a buying paying $1.45. those break even at 4755 down
5:46 pm
3.5% from the trading price. what's really interesting here is that just the action, like i said, xle, xop, even in halliburton, there was short dated put buying. it could an outright bearish bet, could have been hedges against long positions. when i look at halbur to be, it's up 45% on the year. up 77% from the january lows. this is a year that also their $35 billion acquisition for baker hughes was struck down by regulators. they had to pay a $3.5 billion breakup fee. this is in a very nice uptrend. i suspect this trader is playing for a move kind of back to those recent lows. it's up about 25% since september. >> all right. for more options action, check out the full show 5:30 eastern time on friday. yes, we are back. we had a day off because of gobble gobble day. >> giddyap. >> we're back on friday. still ahead, your cable bill could be getting smaller with directv's lower cost bundle but that may not be a bad thing. plus, miss the trump rally?
5:47 pm
we will give you five surging stocks. the names and whether you can still get it. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade.
5:48 pm
5:49 pm
5:50 pm
welcome back to "fast money." a variety of skinny bundles starting to hit the market and that could help fatten your wallet and create a whole new market for pay tv companies. julia boorstin is in l.a. with the story. julia? >> hey, melissa. taking on dish's sling tv with hulu working on a new ott service to launch next year, today at&t unveiled its directv now options for its over the top direct to consumer service that will launch this wednesday. the company offering a promotional deal of $35 per month for 100-plus channels though they will range between $35 a month for 60 channels to $70 a month for 120 channels including some taylor swift content and a new lifestyle channel from reese witherspoon. you can add hbo and minute scinh per month. directv said they're able to keep prices low by using data to
5:51 pm
deliver targeted advertising. the company says the only tv company that's not involved is cbs though they say they're working to include cbs and showtime. john stanky saying that this won't cannibalize directv's subscriber base. >> there's over 20 million households that are not part of the pay tv ecosystem today. that product is tuned to address portions of that base. to find the folks that maybe couldn't pass credit checks. to look at the cord shavers and the cord nevers and find a way to complement what is already a great premium subscriber base. >> at&t saying this rounds out its offerings along with full screen $6 a month service focused on short form internet content as well as free view which has free ad supported content. at&t mobility customers will be able to watch the app without it using up any of their mobile
5:52 pm
data. it's about bringing new customers into the whole at&t ecosystem. melissa? >> julia, thank you. let's get the trade on this. dan, you're mr. digital. >> i tried cutting the cord. i used sling. it's a horrible service. i would try this at&t one but the issue is that you were reliant on the internet kek and that's why the cable guys stay in the guy. i suspect at some point comcast will need to provide a wireless provider because they'll want to do this -- >> like a telecom company? >> why not. look at what at&t just did. at&t wireless is offering you is discount if you sign up for detecti directv. this is the way it's going. it's going to get unbundled in ten years all these big things but in the meantime you'll have a lot of options. it's going to be good for consumers. >> effectively you're saying that the traditional cable companies will have to own all sorts of pipes whether it be cable or wireless. >> is he skinny bundle? >> you mean straight?
5:53 pm
>> you mean he himself? >> are you or what do you do with your cable? >> i'm the whole package. >> he has like rabbit ears. >> they're actually back. i'm not even kidding. >> you can use antenna now to get tv apparently. >> the quality is getting better and better. >> apparently you can and they're not like hangers. >> a lot of the time you're not but in this particular case -- i'm just kidding. in this particular -- well, not really, but in this particular case i 100% agree with you. >> so come cast -- the prediction for 2017 comcast makes the deal for -- >> b.k. household will be getting whatever channel that is with reese witherspoon because that'ses about b.k.'s favorite actress. >> her portrayal of june cash -- that was a very good movie. >> june carter cash. >> absolutely. >> that was a great movie. >> moving on -- >> sorry.
5:54 pm
>> still ahead. i have to pull the plug. it's a five stocks you could pi for less than 10 bucks. miles per hour. aveling 0 for less than 10 bucks. for less than 10 bucks. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create,
5:55 pm
not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
5:56 pm
welcome back to "fast money." i'm dominic chu.
5:57 pm
looking for stocks that don't cost a lot per share? there are around 24 stocks in the russell 1000 index that have share prices below ten bucks each. yes, we know just because a stock has a low share price doesn't necessarily mean that it's, quote, unquote, cheap from a relative value standpoint. they might be very expensive from a price to earnings or price to sales perspective. so among the more notable names in that camp, you got office supply retailer staples, which is up 31% just this month to date alone. department store jcpenney up 8%. drugstore chain rite aid shares are up 17% this month. wireless phone carrier sprint has gained 29% and satellite radio operator sirius xm has gained around 10%. now, it could be a mix of things helping to power the gains. there's optimism perhaps that a new trumpl edomp trump administ be more favorable from a rego regulatory perspective. certain stocks are more insulated from currency exchange rates. regardless of all the options here, melissa, some of these
5:58 pm
smaller price but not necessarily smaller valuation stocks have been standing out for some traders out there for some time. back over to you guys. >> thanks a lot, dom. let's get the trade on some of these names and, dan, i know you are looking at sirius. >> sirius is interesting. this is one that's long been rumored as a takeover candidate. they've been growing sales for the past five years at 10% a year. companies like apple have been so bad at services. this seems like one that would be a fantastic fit for what they're trying to do in services. so i suspect at some point in the next couple years sirius is not an independent company. i'm going to go off the list. dom had a run but i'm going to go off the run. don't shake your head. >> dom did all that work. >> one that was recently a single digit. that's a tease by the way. >> that is a tease. >> something is going on. big call buying at a certain name -- >> mike khouw.
5:59 pm
>> he was talking about amd. clearly something is happening. big short interest. i'm not saying the stock is going to 20, but there's a very good chance it makes double digits in the next couple weeks. >> all right. >> yeah. >> that's a new one. >> that was me actually. i just want to tell you that. >> he gets all the props. >> exactly. >> i'm so sorry. >> sorry, dan. >> he's not really. >> but i was paying attention. >> except you didn't know who was talking. final trade time. >> pandora. some huge call buying right at the end of the day. keep an eye on p. going higher. >> b.k.? >> for me it's gdx bouncing off 20 several times. i like it and it's shiny. >> dan? >> the xot. if you bought it for a trade into black friday, cyber, whatever, sell it. >> guy? >> fun show. just a snippy show tonight. >> snippy. >> i like sprint. just throwing it out there. >> i'm just throwing one more.
6:00 pm
>> that was a value add. >> i want you to look at dhr. two men in a boat. check that out. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. wherever i went this glorious thanksgiving weekend, there was one thing everyone agreed on. the trump rally, it

133 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on