Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 15, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

5:00 pm
president-elect. but kelly, as we know from constant tweets and other stories, he's not shy about reaching out to ceos or saying something publicly to ceos. kelly, back to you. >> that's for sure, phil, thanks so much, our phil lebeau speaking with mary barra in the last hour or so. that does it for "closing bell." thank you for joining us here. "fast money" begins right now. oh, it was so close. dow 20,000. you could almost taste it. coming within 50 points of that magical barrier. dow closing up today 60 points, not enough to hit that milestone just yet. do dow 20 k will have to wait. will banks continue to lead the way or will another group of stocks carry us over the $20,000 line? hello, guy. >> welcome.
5:01 pm
can we clap for her? >> great to be here, thank you. >> the answer to the question is yes, financials continue to lead. i'm not going to submit i've been some raging bull on financials. i will say this. people say they've run too far, too fast. if you look at a chart, maybe. what people aren't looking at is the fact that in 2007, a lot of these financials were trading over two times book. i don't think we're getting there for you. but at 1.7, 1.8 times book, for example goldman sachs, which is currently 1.3, just to it there, 1.8, consider a $300 stock, which is probably another 15, 20% higher than we are right now. can they continue to go higher? i submit they can. >> if the economy improves, can't the book get better too? >> they could have a better loan portfolio. their tax situation could be better. a lot of things could get better. not so much the repatriation, that's not so important for them, it's like a one-time
5:02 pm
thing. >> america doesn't even have that much exposure. but a stronger book and higher rates, those two things are fantastic. >> the backdrop here, though, we say sometimes in the show, if you like this, would you rather. at this point financials i think will rally to the point where the dollar becomes so strong, there will be help coming. i'll say this right now, 85, people talked about when the dollar gets too strong, i don't think we're there yet, but the backdrop and setup in terms of the reagan administration and how in fact they were using deficit spending and how they were targeting fiscal spending, i think we get there. financials rallied all the way. if you like u.s. financials, you like european financials even more. they get more benefit from higher rates. ultimately we're at a place here where global growth and the credit issues that were affecting european banks, the balance sheets, if nothing else are getting easier, despite all that's going on in europe. >> stevie grasso, should you
5:03 pm
rotate into something else? >> one day it's the financials, one day it's the industrials, one day it's utilities, one day it's materials. you can have everything. there's something for everyone in the market. that's why i don't like to be too choosey. by the overall market. let that push you over. >> somebody brought up the dollar already. at what point does it become a problem? you think we can rally for a long time. >> i get questions, how can we rally in the face of a fed that's in a tightening phase now. you've probably heard growing up, don't fight the fed. >> exactly. >> yet we looked at data, the last five times we've seen rate rises over the last 40 years, and on average, the s&p, the year of those rate raises, is up 13.8%. the dollar is a bit of a headwind. there are headwinds. the data doesn't support the absolute, you know, mandate of don't fight the fed. >> i wonder if that's because the reason they're raising rates
5:04 pm
is the economy is getting stronger. >> yes. >> gdp. >> if gdp escalates where we think it's going to go, everything follows in suit. it gets hairy and the ten-year outpaces gdp or projections for gdp. >> we get back to this argument, steve. we all know what has happened. but what really has happened in terms of actual structural change? absolutely zero. >> gdp is going to double? >> when you talk about infrastructure play, there's guys modelling right now 4 to 5% gdp. it's not a fact. it hasn't happened. but they're modelling that right now. >> that would be huge. >> huge. >> and it could be transitory. it doesn't have to last forever. the fact that it's there, or potentially could be there, who is selling the market ahead of that? >> that equates to earnings. corporate earnings, which by the
5:05 pm
way expectations now are very high for this quarter. that's something to be concerned about. >> if you're worried that the market is expensive, it gets automatically cheaper. what did you buy today? >> you have to look for names breaking to the upside. unitedhealth, we talked about that, earlier this week, my days get lumped together. unh is break out on the upside. regardless of what happens with the affordable health plan, this is a stock that's traded well over the last couple of weeks. even if crude oil goes sideways to slightly lower, i think they still work. we've talked about anadarko petroleum. that stock, which is probably trading around 70 bucks, has an 80 handle in its future. >> i've been a repeat buyer of the s&p. i bought spiders. coming out of the election i bought eem and was shocked that eem hung in there in a rising rate environment. that tells me when it doesn't go down on what's supposed to be bad news, it's bullish for that.
5:06 pm
>> i bought two things. i bought goalar, an energy play that moves with oil but a so not related to oil price. a lot of good things have happened there, bought some today. i also bought coors. >> not the beer. >> not the beer. what's out of favor is interesting to me. >> steve mentioned emerging markets. the currency, the dollar should have been enough to see asia. despite what happened in china, i agree with that call. home build, to me the backdrop for homebuilders is everything you want. rates are bringing people into this market. >> all right. when it comes to markets, our next guest has the hot hand. here is what he had to say about stocks following the election. >> we have a trump -- the question is where the market goes from here. we think it can go higher from here. this rally may not be over.
5:07 pm
we think that sometimes towards the end of this year or early next year we could see 2300. >> since that call the s&p 500 has rallied drawing closer to 2300. back with us, jpmorgan's marco belanovic. welcome, marco. now what? >> our price started for 2017, our price is 2400. ultimately we think it will go higher. short term, we are a bit surprised by the pace of dollar rally, the pace of rates increase. so i think some risks are building. medium term is positive, short term risks are building up. >> if i'm at home listening, i'm here, okay, if i'm a long term hold holder, it's okay, but if i want to trade the market, now is not the entry point? >> it's more risky now. for long term holders,
5:08 pm
definitely buy. for short term holders, there are a lot of moving parts. the amount of risk has built up, the market went pretty fast, the dollar went pretty fast, rates went pretty fast. all these things can potentially destabilize a market. >> what dollar level are you watching that really concerns you? >> i would say a long term, if the dollar stays at this level it's already sort of a problem. it's a 15-year high, so basically we're very close to the peak of 2000. if you want to go back in history, last time it was significantly higher, 1984. so at least already this level, i think, is a bit problematic. the question is does it persist. then you see erosion of earnings. or it pulls back. so the dollar, i think we're close to the red zone. on rates, we're sort of looking at 275. we get the question a lot, i don't think it's one number, it's a multidimensional problem. it's dollar,rates, growth,
5:09 pm
jobs, s&p level. >> a matrix. >> it's a matrix. i would say 275 is already low. i would be worried, 275 to 3 is where things would start breaking. >> in the market, the same thing never happens twice. so last year we saw janet yellen, she always talks hawkish and then acts dovish. this time she wound up talking hawkish and actually following through. the markets sold off in january. to me, everyone set up for that. it lasted for an hour or two after she spoke. i don't think we're going to see the same thing. >> i mean, look, i agree with you, mark, it's changing, they're always evolving, the frequency of events changes and stuff like that. if you look on the last year, the market didn't sell off, it took a few days for the market to digest. i wouldn't judge by the last 24 hours. oil back then was much lower.
5:10 pm
china was very much in focus. now there's not too much focus or any focus on china. we do have this promise of fiscal reform that is a little bit of a carrot for people to chase. some things are different, arguably better than they were in january last year, although i still think some risk is there, can't be dismissed. >> marco, thank you for joining us. >> guys like marco, they stop shaving. >> he looks great. >> i'm just saying. you can get away with it when you're totally right. my view here is if you like the u.s. market and this backdrop, you love the markets in the developed world that actually have weaker currencies. we talked about this earlier today, michelle. europe for sure. japan has much greater growth rates, not everybody's bailiwick, but you have to look at japan and europe. >> listen to what he said. >> i always listen, you absolutely have to listen,
5:11 pm
despite the fact that he seems to have lost his razor today. if you look for a short term trade, tlt actually bottomed out where we bottomed out in the middle of last year, the 116 level. for a trade, tlt, tim would say the s&p on an rsi is overbought. you could probably say the same thing about tlt to the downside. for a short term trade, tlt bounces from here. >> you want to buy treasuries, but not directly? >> for a trade, with the 117 handle now, you could absolutely see this back in the low 120s. with that said, it's probably still in a trajectory lower. >> got it. coming up, check out shares of adobe and/or and oracle on the move. plus disney's major "star wars" spinoff premiers today. if history is a guide, now may
5:12 pm
be the time to sell. we'll explain why. plus one group of stocks has suddenly given back all their gross election gains. could it be the first crack in the trump train? more "fast money" still ahead, don't move.
5:13 pm
5:14 pm
5:15 pm
welcome back. time for a news alettered on gilead. meg terrell is in the newsroom. >> reporter: we're watching gilead sink in after hours after it was ordered by a jury to pay $2.5 million to merck over patents in its hepatitis c drug, tying to intellectual property that merck gained in a 2014 acquisition of a biotech company, raising a lot of eye brows at the time. if this holds they would be getting back more than half the price they paid. gilead says they respectfully disagree with the jury's verdict and damage award and they intend to vigorously challenge this outcome through the appeals process. they say, we remain steadfast in our opinion that the patent is invalid, and since they assumed no risk in the discovery and
5:16 pm
development of the drug metabolites, we do not believe they are entitled to any level of damages. michelle? >> thank you very much, meg. let's trade it. what do you think, grasso? >> gilead's down i guess 18, 25%? 25%. ibb down 20%. merck has been up. >> biotech index. >> yep. merck has been up 18% to date. for me, it's too hard to navigate this whole arena, way too much headwinds. until they have a trump meeting, i'm not saying this in jest, once you see, that will be the tipping point or the buy point for biotech. trump needs to get ahead of this or they need to get ahead of him. there's too much political risk. >> gilead's problems are not trump-related. they're in the hep c space. they're either losing ground to generics or people think they
5:17 pm
don't have enough in the pipeline. the valuation is dirt cheap. if anything, their hiv drugs have been much, much stronger and the pricing power is holding up. i've been long and wrong gilead for six months. >> gilead did everything right. it's the number two in ibb. if they did everything right, the stock still gets sold off. >> gilead has a fair amount of cash, a good balance sheet. people are concerned they're going to make an acquisition that is destructive. people expecting m&a that doesn't work for the company. to say this is a biotech company with a target on its back for price grounouging, is not the s. >> if they did everything you just stated completely correct, and everybody said this is great, you can't paint a better picture for them, and there's still political headwinds, the stock still gets sold aggressively. >> you raise an interest point generally about the biotech sector. in the wake of the election, the immediate reaction was wow, this
5:18 pm
is way better for drugs, fireph, because hillary is out, donald is in. >> it's a bipartisan issue. >> hold on. to finish your point, that's an interesting point, he'll probably do exactly what you're talking about, have some big pharma meeting, and then we'll start to get a clue. >> exactly. that will be the end. if ibb is down 20%, you're saying amgen, biogen, all those companies have done nothing but bad, other than gilead. >> i'm not going to tell you there's not pressure on the sector. gilead was under pressure on its own because of their own problems. and their own problems with regard to their pricing power and their drug pipeline, and it's not great. >> you love/hate biotech? >> i think tim's point is exactly that. gilead was a victim of its own
5:19 pm
success, frankly. the problems with gilead with the stock started a long time ago, long before hillary or mr. trump started talking about the evils of the pharmaceutical space. with that said, they have an unbelievable balance she het they'll have to put to work at some point. valuation has been the wrong reason for the last $30. at a certain point they're forced to make a move which will probably be somewhat negative for the stock. in the long term that might be the best thing they can do. >> shares of adobe are volatile after hours. cnbc's jon fortt just spoke with the ceo. john, what did he say? >> reporter: michelle, i got to him before the call. a couple of points. adobe has been up better than 12% for the year. i asked him about deal sizes headed into 2017. here is what he said. >> we're certainly seeing increased deal sizes with a number of customers, because they are standardizing on the adobe platform across many different industries. we were pleased with the performance that we saw on
5:20 pm
annual subscriber bookings that we're new to see in digital marking. >> reporter: i asked him about the overall environment post-election. a lot of people were worried about volatility. but the markets have been doing quite well. here is what he said about the microenvironment and policy effects on adobe heading into 2017. >> we continue to hope that, you know, looking at corporate tax rates, as well as continuing to ensure that r&d and innovation is incented within u.s. companies, we think if we have that kind of an environment, things will be really positive for us. >> reporter: more m&a on the horizon for adobe as well, he mentioned that. guys? >> thanks very much, jon. guys, let's trade it. he's looking for lower corporate tax. >> which will help them. the quarter was good, they guided lower for 2017. the stock initially traded lower. we've talked about adobe now for
5:21 pm
a long time. if you look since 2012, every selloff post earnings, you come back a week later or so and this stock is making a new all-time high. my sense is that's what's going to happen again. people say the stock is rich on valuation. it has been for quite some time. i think they dominate their space. they don't really have any peers, necessarily. this is a stock where you come back in january, and we're talking about $115 name. >> that's totally been right at this point. the valuation at some point does matter for something at a time when i think people are very concerned about valuations. at least in the sector, i think the high growth names give way to value. that's worked so far this year. you're right, guy, it keeps going higher. >> trailing pe of 53 'right now. coming up, coal is about to do something it hasn't done since 1992, we'll tell you what and what it means for the market. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, we're first in business worldwide. >> yeah. >> meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast."
5:22 pm
>> announcer: the force is with shares of disney, which are rurge surging as "rogue one" hits theaters. plus talk about rich people problems. >> and she stepped on the ball. >> too many bottles of this wine we can't pronounce. >> announcer: shares of a number of luxury retailers are falling. it could signal a crack in the trump train. we'll explain when "fast money" returns.
5:23 pm
5:24 pm
rocky valley, four seasons, from where? >> jersey. >> give me your top three jersey artists, quick! >> the boss. >> where is jovi?
5:25 pm
this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t.
5:26 pm
what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
5:27 pm
welcome back to "fast money." the rally on wall street continuing today. the major averages fail to make record highs. dow coming within spitting distance of 20,000 before losing
5:28 pm
steam this afternoon. in the second half of the show, we have a number of retail stocks sitting out the trump rally. we'll give you the names and tell you what it could say about the consumer. later, gold is down 12% since the election, dangerously close to wiping out 2016 gains. has it finally found a bottom? we'll explore, we'll explain, but first we'll start with disney. the stock has been on a tear ahead of the release of one of the most anticipated movies of the year, "rogue one: a star wars story." jul julie boorstin has more from los angeles. >> reporter: it's estimated the film will generate more than a billion dollars in revenue for disney. it's not expected to make as much as last year's "the force awakens," "rogue one" is a key for disney to determine whether
5:29 pm
george lucas's franchise can fuel not just disney's studio but demand for products and california and florida theme parks. the outlook is good so far with an 85% positive rating on rotten tomatoes. fans have lined up outside the chinese theater on hollywood boulevard since tuesday, awaiting the first screening which is just a couple of hours away. >> since 1999, every time a move came out, i have slept out. the first three episodes, the lines were in excess of six weeks, so we camped out here off and on for that long. we came back for episode 7, 13 days. now this is a short line, around 48 hours or so. >> reporter: certainly a dedicated fan base there. disney under pressure for its media division, networks have been looking more closely at the success of the studio.
5:30 pm
disney dominated one quarter of the u.s. box office with five of the top ten films of the year including "finding dorie" and captain america." "rogue one" could top them. >> julia, i remember a billion dollars in revenue, when that was a big deal. now it's still good but it's almost expected, right? >> reporter: i think it is a big deal still. i think the key thing here is everyone knew that "the force awakens" was going to be huge, there was so much pent-up demand, so much excitement. disney really showed that they could take these valuable characters and give them new life. here what they're doing is taking the world that we know, the world of "star wars," and they're creating a whole new story line, entirely new characters that we haven't heard about before. i have to say, i saw it and really enjoyed it. i'm not going to give anything away, but it's really interesting to see how they're making so much of this lucas film acquisition, $4 billion acquisition, no question from "the force awakens" that was a
5:31 pm
valuable acquisition for them. now we'll see how big it can be. >> rtainly. thank you, julia. i like 90 on rotten tomatoes before i see a film. "star wars" i might. disney shares have been surging as they were for last year's "the force awakens" premier. after the release, the stocks held off 15% in the months after. could we see the same thing this time around? >> absolutely. i mean, every time -- not every, but so many times, it's a by the rumor, sell the news kind of thing. how hyped was that guy, right? he would be as long as he could be. i think every time we've seen this, the hype is too big and it can't meet that. there's other things going on that have also -- the espn situation for disney is a far more important matter than the opening this weekend. >> isn't it good news that the stock has been hyped on this? this is a stock everyone said was dying because of espn's fall from 99 to 92 million subs.
5:32 pm
i think ultimately consumer products, international and domestic parks and theme parks, these studios are growing. >> do you buy here into this? >> i'll let these guys talk about where on the charts. frankly i just think in terminates of the existential -- >> high dollar word. >> november 10th, the reported earnings weren't great. if you remember, the stock was close to 93, probably trading at 91 1/2. the stock was 98, we talked about the potential for tradeup to 105, and here we are. why 105? that's where it failed back in may. i hear what tim is saying. i think there's a real chance the stock fails at 105 level. deutsche bank put a target on it, i don't think it gets there. >> at a certain point the espn
5:33 pm
concerns are probably going to fade a bit. to guy's point, if you look back on the charts since august, it's been bouncing from up against the $100 resistance down to the $90 support. it's popped out of that range, it's overextended just a bit. i do agree with guy's sell range, 104, 107, you could see a lift higher, but overall, if the stock bases and uses that $100 resistance, that's where you buy. >> there are a number of stocks that benefitted from the return of "star wars." mattel and hasbro toy makers up three months after the movie release. movie chain amc was up 17%. even gamestop got in on the games, rallying 6%. maybe this is a better way to play the "star wars" movie. >> i think it is. i think mattel is the one to buy. mattel has pulled back, has more room to run. if we're talking about the charts and technically, this stocks pays you a 7% dividend. you've got a management turnaround.
5:34 pm
mattel is very interesting here. >> all right. from a hot stock to wasn't today. check out shares of yahoo! sinking 6% on a report that verizon may look for a lower price or back out of its deal to buy it after yahoo! revealed more information about a number of user account hacks. the white house announced the fbi was investigating those hacks. we heard the number of a billion, a billion people. should verizon go through with the deal or not? if it doesn't, what happens to yahoo! now? >> just on the deal part of it, verizon holds all the cards. they should wait and see, how does this play out a little bit, they have a little bit of time to decide. and i think this is -- they're going to argue material adverse change here. i think that's a reasonable argument. we don't know the ability, we don't know how damaging this potentially is yet. why do they need to decide today, especially when they hold all the cards? >> there's no other buyer, i get that. it's no secret they want to buy
5:35 pm
this. they want to combine with aol, they want the digital ad space, they want to take on google and facebook. the stock is down 250 a share, if they dropped this price a billion bucks, this is what the analysts are saying, not me, this is a 65, 70 cent impact on this deal. sum of the parts is what it comes down to. if you're talking about tax, whatever. >> synergies. >> if you're talking about tax amnesty, sorry, i was getting a little worked up there, karen was in my drill. this is one of the companies that has the most to gain. it's sum of the parts. even without the core, this thing is interesting. >> on the flip side, though, is there some price where they say, you know what, we're not selling at that price. >> i don't think she can. i agree verizon is the only player at the table right now. and i don't think either side wants to walk away. >> i expand it out to more of an m&a discussion. if you look at time warner,
5:36 pm
everybody is looking at all these different players, wireless service, home phone, cable. >> but the merging of pipes and content. >> you look at time warner, everybody was betting against it happening, they sold it off, there's a premium left in there. i would buy time warner. if you look at t-mobile, t-mobile is going to need a dance partner, up 46%, i think it can go higher even from here. verizon is up 12%. it's not that exciting. when you look at t-mobile, it's a disrupter. it's easier to fill their dance card than with an old, staid company. >> and no concerns about a trump administration being too concerned about a concentration of power? >> sure. but everyone he puts in control of making those decisions is extremely in favor of more deals versus less. >> all right. still ahead, gold is on the verge of doing something it hasn't done since 1992, and it's not a good thing. we'll tell you how it is and how to trade it. plus oracle shares are down.
5:37 pm
we'll hear from the ceo on the quarter. president-elect donald trump, what he thinks about him, when "fast money" returns.
5:38 pm
5:39 pm
welcome back to "fast money." time for a little buzz kill.
5:40 pm
gold plunging 3% today on the heels of the fed rate hike, the precious metal down 20% from its 2016 high. it's just $70 away from turning negative on the year. if it were to close the year in the red, it would mark four back to back years of losses. that's the longest losing streak since 1992. >> and why is it that gold bugs scream the loudest at the biggest blowoff tops? gold is now 15% from the election, down 20%, we're about to be a bear market in gold. gold is supposed to be an inflation hedge, a political hedge. what happened here? by the way, to the support of gold, you actually have global production that's, you know, starting to come into balance and you actually have some factors that are affecting oil and other commodity factors. i do think there's positive there. 1220 is the level it needed to hold. >> my uncle grasso. >> i bought gdx, the gold minors
5:41 pm
etf, i bought it yesterday based on a technical reason. i added to it, i've been long. there's a spot in everybody's portfolio for a little bit of gold. unfortunately it feels likeis a gold when it's going the wrong way. i do think there will be a time when this ratchets right back up. your downside is a couple of points from here. >> why? why is it going up? >> the reason why originally, and forget all the inflation, deflation, there's never been a right time to buy gold, everything it was supposed to be protecting against, it's not working right now. you have huge levels of debt on central banks' balance sheets, it didn't work against that. the reason gdx sold off is they worried about miners going belly up and bankrupt. that's somewhat off the table, at least for now. >> everyone on this desk has made that trade, i buy something and the very next day you could have bought it a lot cheaper. the question is, did anything
5:42 pm
change overnight that would make you not want to be in the trade anymore? or would you buy more? >> i'm glad you asked me that, it gets dangerous when you think you're matter that the market. the reason gold sold off yell was that chair yellen spoke about three raises. and that's what spooked the market. >> steve, you seem to think there's a bottom on this. frankly, of all the things you can trade, gold is something that really has no bottom, and ultimately, because this thing becomes such an emotional trade, it's not an industrial metal. >> etf holdings are slowly evaporating. this has gone from being a fad trade. >> in agreement with you, this could be the worst thing to buy under a trump presidency. >> that's been proven. >> well, first of all, he's only president-elect. look at how much money he is going to spend money like a democrat, like a liberal, even though he's a republican. so i think once we start to get into that time period, you'll start to see gold catching up. >> you want to feel better?
5:43 pm
>> sure. >> despite the selloff, one trader is betting gold could make a comeback. mike coe has the details. >> have we ever had a president that likes gold more than donald trump? it does actually look like we're heading for this 2016 low here. one of the bullish bets we saw today was actually a beyer of the february 115 calls. steve, they only spent 80 cents for that. maybe if you're going to make a bullish bet, that would be a better way to play. i understand this whole rising rates, falling gold. but i just want to point out that we look back in time, we had rising rates in the late '70s. what else do we have? rising gold prices. so basically, if rates are not keeping place with inflation, that's what you're going to start seeing gold prices go up. if you're going to make a bullish bet, very inexpensive to do it with options. i feel better.
5:44 pm
>> thank you, michelle. >> thank you very much, might go. are you convinced, tim seymour? >> absolutely not. >> thanks, mike. check out "options action" tomorrow night, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, trouble for the consumer. we'll explain. oracle shares as we head to break, that stock moving lower in the afterhours. we'll hear from larry ellison. you're watch "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim,
5:45 pm
only at td ameritrade. ♪ well, if you want to sing out, sing out ♪ ♪ and if you want to be free, be free ♪ ♪ 'cause there's a million things to be ♪ ♪ you know that there are ♪ and if you want to be me, be me ♪ ♪ and if you want to be you, be you ♪ ♪ 'cause there's a million things to do ♪ ♪ you know that there are ♪
5:46 pm
tadirectv now. stream all your entertainment! anywhere! anytime! can we lose the 'all'. ere's no cbs and we don't have a ton of sports. anywhere, any...
5:47 pm
let's lose the 'anywhere, anytime' too. you can't download on-the-go, there's no dvr, yada yada yada. stream some stuff! somewhere! sometimes! you totally nailed that buddy. simple. don't let directv now limit your entertainment. only xfinity gives you more to stream to any screen. welcome back to "fast money." a number of retail stocks soared after the election, but they since reversed. dom chu has more. >> reporter: we're looking at the retail luxury side of things. one of the big effects of the election seemed to be the unlocking of consumer spending sentiment on the upper end of the income spectrum. we did see some of that optimism perhaps in anticipation of the richer among us spending some more. we've seen a little bit of a pullback on some of those names.
5:48 pm
if you look at a stock like, say, kate spade, it rallied by 16% in the days following the election win but has since been trending lower, down by around 18% from the highs we saw since then. same story with ralph lauren, up by 15% following the election, then down 15% lower from those highs that we saw. if you look at a chart like coach, you'll get the same effect, you get the feeling here, right? 8% highs to the upside, and then 7% lower since then. and michael kors never really took off, 4% up after the election and 12% lower since then. the question is whether this could be a canary in the coal mine, an early indicator of optimism tempering a bit, could be a thing to keep an eye on especially with retail numbers coming in this holiday season. >> thanks for that rundown, dom chu, measure appreciated. >> i'm long kors, not delightful on a day like today by i bought
5:49 pm
some more by the end of the day today. this moved down, it happened mostly today. i think it was ralph lauren yesterday, there was a breakfast, and the sentiment at the breakfast was the turnaround at ralph lauren is going to take a lot longer than people think. what hurts them also hurts a coach, a kate spade, and a kors, in that the wholesale business for each of these guys is challenging and they all want to scale back on wholesale to get control of the price of their product. this is a headwind they've been facing, all of them. to me, kors is the cheapest by so much, and yet has i think some positives that make it a better business than some of the other ones. i don't understand why it's valued at such a discount compared to the other ones. steve, during the break we talked about this issue of is there going to be some sort of income tax or border tax. i don't know that issue. i just think the valuation is ridiculous. they'll be buying back stock that they said they were going
5:50 pm
to be an aggressive buyer of their own stock. >> why is it it seems like a lot of these guys are going through this restructuring or this kind of realigning their business? it was coach, kors on some level. they're all finding ubiquity, and fighting the structural headwind of amazon and online. >> i'm sure, guys, for you guys, i know i'm here, guys, my question is, if we tackle this from a retail perspective, what part of the income spending perspective would you favor over the others? the luxury, the dollar stores? where do you think the best outlook is in the first hundred days of a trump administration? >> look at tiffany's, ferrari, the ultrahigh end is going higher. >> also, i mean, when you have a stock market that's up a lot, often, you know, the higher end customer really benefits the most. >> first of all, if trump gets
5:51 pm
what he wants here, republicans get what they want, they'll go from multiple tax brackets to three tax brackets. they're going to drop the top tax bracket from 39.6 plus the obamacare surcharge which brings you up to 42 and change down to 33. that's an awful lot of money in the upper end's pockets. i think that favors the upper end. >> you make a great buoyant about ubiquity. the issue of these companies going public is you need more and more sales, and then once everybody is wearing them, nobody wants them anymore because everybody else is wearing them. >> what do you buy in merry-go-round these days? >> funny you should mention that. we talked about nordstrom's was trading 60 bucks. i said they have a great women's shoe section. tim made a snide remark. i said on valuation it's much too rich, too much, too fast. nordstrom's has gone from 60.5 to 55. credit suisse recently resumed coverage in the name. and there's a real chance that it gets down there. here is the name we've done a
5:52 pm
decent job on and a name that could continue to go on. moving on to oracle earni s earnings. josh lipton has more. >> reporter: larry ellison was on the call. he was talking about his company's cloud business, as well as how it stacks up to the competition. take a listen. >> in the cloud, we measure oracle against salesforce.com and amazon web services. our cloud applications goal is to be the world's largest and most profitable company. we are growing our cloud business much faster than salesforce.com. and we can beat them to the $10 billion mark. but it's going to be close. >> reporter: now, ellison also
5:53 pm
asked where oracle's infrastructure as a service can be more reliable and less expensive than amazon. we think it can, he said. that of course a shot at bees oo bezo sch bezos. executives were asked on the call whether they thought the declines would continue to steep in. executives saying we're not expecting a decline next quarter even at the 19% rate. guys, back to you. >> stafford katz was at the meeting with donald trump, did they talk about that on the call, give any hints what was discussed there? >> reporter: you would have expected some questions about the incoming administration, stafford katz at the meeting along with bezos, larry page,
5:54 pm
tim cooke. not a lot of questions about that on the street, michelle. >> so uncurious, those analysts. thank you very much. >> a lot of competition in the space, oracle, crm, salesforce. it's about going to digital. sap and oracle have done a great job going to digital. sap has done a better job at on-premise software as well. intricate spot, huge companies we're talking about. oracle has beat them on a year to date performance up 11%, against sap up 7%. you have to wait and see. if you want to be in the spot, you almost have to buy them all. >> to me, oracle is a stock you can feel comfortable is making the transition and one that seems to execute every time in integrating new businesses over and over. that suite has now been integrated again. i would stay with oracle despite the fact there's nothing sexy on valuation. >> my brother works at oracle so i want it to go up.
5:55 pm
okay? >> let's help. >> full disclosure, look at you. my brother works at oracle so i want it to go up. what's your brother's name? >> kenneth. >> kenneth, you watching right now? the quarter wasn't great. it wasn't horrible but it wasn't great. larry ellison is talking about the growth in cloud because frankly that's all he has to be optimistic right now. >> that's where my brother works, in the cloud, or on the cloud. >> salesforce in my opinion is eating oracle's lunch on this. oracle had trouble a number of times this year will trade 38 1/2 before it trades 40. >> check out the conflict of interest. she's at least out there with it, i appreciate it. >> the other cloud, amazon, google, microsoft. a crowded space. >> my favorite r.e.m. song, kenneth, which is off the monster lp, which wasn't great, but that song rocks.
5:56 pm
>> so glad you got that in. >> tonight, ceo of western digital will talk china, trump, and his hopes for the future of international business. plus cramer is uncovering a pro growth economy and what it could mean for pets, all that and more next on "mad money." next here on "fast money," an undercover way to play the financials. more "fast money" coming up.
5:57 pm
there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.
5:58 pm
yeah, chevy was great in that. who played the wife? beverly d'angelo! juliette lewis costarred as the daughter. oh, i think it was um... chris columbus was the director... it's called claymation... narwhals really exist... actually guys, it was the ghost of christmas past... never stick your tongue on a frozen flag pole... yukon cornelius... "die hard" is considered a christmas movie! that's the unlimited effect. stream your entertainment with unlimited data when you switch to at&t and have directv.
5:59 pm
time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim seymour. >> japan. toyota motors is obvious. >> karen? >> michael kors talked about about it, valuation here is very attractive. >> stevie grasso? >> square. i bought it multiple times, traded above $14. i bought it specifically for the square financial arm. >> great to have you, mcc. where are you going tonight? >> a china event. >> really? >> as a national correspondent. yes, it is black tie. >> you are hip. a hippie chick. salesforce.com, why, guy? i'll tell you, mcc, because
6:00 pm
ellison's oracle quarter illustrates how strong salesforce really is. >> will you come with me to a subtitled movie with . my mission is simple -- to make you moivenl i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money". welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends i'm here to save you money. my job is to educate and teach. call me or tweet me@jimcramer. on a day where the dow gains, nasdaq climbed .37%, i realized the name

134 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on