it's not a record-breaker. not a massive hit. but we're definitely watching to see how it does this weekend and many are watching to see how it does not just in china where it probably will be a hit but internationally probably won't be as successful as it is in china. >> yeah, i thought the trailer was crazy. but thanks for joining us, julia, with the box office rundown. and thank you everybody for tuning into "closing bell" this afternoon. have a great weekend. "fast money" begins now. live from times scare, this is "fast money." and i am brian sullivan and melissa has a well-deserved day off. your traders tonight, tim seymour, karen finerman, steve grasso and guy adami. tonight on "fast." you have to wait for another day for dow 20k. stocks retreating so just when will the dow hit that magic 20,000 milestone? does it even matter? we'll take to the charts. plus, where is the retail nirva nirvana? consumer sentiment resurging, christmas just around the corner. why are some of the retail stocks struggling so much? we have a special report.

and later on, honeywell sending investors a mixed signal. out with a warning after telling investors basically everything was fine back in october. all of that ahead. welcome, everybody. but first, we begin with the risk to this epic post election rally. >> no, we did not hit dow 20,000 today. but we did lock in our sixth straight week of gains. the dollar is surging. and rates continue to rise. so let's start with guy adami. >> yes, sir. >> do you have any concerns that we could get a protracted pullback in stocks? >> i'm always concerned. but the three reasons we just outlined don't concern me. out of all three things you dimensioned, the fiscal stimulus everybody has been hoping for is absolutely transcending all of those things in spades. so although individually they were collective headwind potentially six months ago, i think people are looking past them now. earnings to me are a story. but i think earnings probably will be fine. i think the rising dollar would

have been a story again if mrs. clinton was elected. again, i think the fiscal stimulus people are expecting, trump everything. >> and i -- you've qualified it, and i think it's appropriate. but, you know, if this was a year ago, we would be losing our mind. >> 100%. >> and the fact of the matter is, we haven't elected or negotiated or voted for at least within congress any legislative change to anything yet. so despite the fact that i think the numbers are better, i think the economy was in an industrial up swing even before this election. to say that the rates move another 20 bips -- people talk about the chinese bond market. the u.s. market moved 80 bips in the last month. and china moved 60. we make a big deal out of things we want to make a big deal out of. this should be a big deal. >> we did this show, "power lunch" on monday and what we learned, karen, there is a big tax reform package coming. how it exactly looks, we're not sure. so i hear your point, tim, about a stronger dollar. if we get a corporate tax reform

package done, karen, won't that mitigate the impact the dollar would have had if we didn't have the reform? >> i think it will. and i think we're going to get it done. i don't know how it's going to look exactly. i mean, the rally, of course, since he was elected is telling you something really good is going to happen. >> huge. >> i believe that it is going to happen. you know, i think for us to pull back a little bit, is not a big deal. considering the strength of the rally. the only thing i heard today that it was sort of an interest to me, there is an giant pension reweight out of bonds -- i'm sorry, out of equities, into bonds, given the relative movements in the quarter. >> you think that would be the reason for this pause or the ending of the rally? >> i think that could be a pause. it's going to happen a few days before. that is -- one of the biggest ones they have ever had. >> the story today -- quadruple -- means everything basically under the sun and options world was expiring today. then you have that pension fund rebalance where guys were lining up. i don't know if they wait for the last day.

>> right, right. or if you have so much running -- even bigger than the trade itself. >> so, yes, it's going to be a headwind for the market, the biggest headwind, i don't think so. i think the bigger headwind is out of bonds and equities versus the -- >> headwind or tailwind? >> tailwind. >> it's been a heck of a tailwind. >> so i think that's the tail wind that will overcompensate any headwind. >> you know, tim's point. if you don't follow the bond market that closely, folks, what has happened? we'll call it a, what, 40% backup in yields on the ten-year? we do not see these kind of shifts in the bond market outside of some massive exogenous event, generally. >> no. and if you go back to july, essentially the yield on the ten-year is doubled. 130 to 260. and talk about pension funds, people buying the bond market. the absolutely all-time top, because they have to. i mean, i think it's going to be very interesting to see how ctas levered to the max and pension funds do in 2016. it was a brutal year.

again, a 3% move in the dollar, and this kind of move in rates, pick -- it's just very selective to me how people can say, hey, it's going to be a great world now u when, in fact, six, nine months ago, people would have lost their mind over these kinds of moves. >> when was anyone thinking -- you know -- >> and i love how gdp is suddenly a savior, steve. >> what has changed in gdp? >> what's changed? the prospective that we could actually have growth for the first time in over eight years, basically. when we could talk about 2% growth or negative growth and now people are talking about 4 to 5% growth. >> the way i look at it, first of all, we have had pretty decent growth on -- >> pretty decent growth? >> on a relative -- >> any economist will tell you it's been anemic. >> talking about recession six months ago. we haven't had that. we have been growing slowly. >> and had there not been any political change, we would still be talking about -- >> there's another aspect we haven't talked about. again, i hate to reference the monday show. but, you know, we have a congressman, we interviewed him on "power lunch," john delaney,

maryland. he's rewriting a repatriation package right now. >> great stuff, no question. >> tim, what about the element of being able to bring a few trillion dollars back from around the world here for infrastructure, yes, probably some buybacks. another corporate restructuring? shouldn't that provide another lift? >> the way i look at this is, equities have a lot of perfection priced into them. including all the things you just talked about. agreed. >> i'm not running for the hills. i haven't been running for the hills. and i'll tell you right now, there are some sectors that continue to outperform, including financials. with this move in the dollar and this move in the yield curve, you're going to see these continue. >> tim has been bullish -- ask karen, steve has been, as well. so now -- i don't think he's being cautious. but he's pointing out potential pitfalls. which, by the way, i agree with. >> weak. the fed got out there and said -- it. >> tim, look, where we were a year ago, we're not that different from where bonds were a year ago. so i think to say off the bottom, oh, my god, this is an

enormous move. off the bottom was i think an outlier. so this move to me -- i don't think -- >> i think it's nice you're so convinced and refreshing we're away from a deflation conversation. that was everybody's conversation. maybe not yours. but -- >> why hasn't it changed for you, though? why have things changed? >> steve, i'm -- things have changed, no question about it. >> undivided government with the possibility of cutting corporate tax rates from seven brackets to three brackets. >> i get it. >> corporate tax rate -- >> i mean, you know, bond yields moving higher. by the way, equity valuations. >> when you were so constructive in that environment, why aren't you that constructive now? >> i'm just not doing cart wheels at 2300 on the s&p. >> listen, i'll defend tim a beat bit too. outside budget reconciliation, 60 votes in the senate. we got 54 republicans. so you still -- if you want to see all these changes get done, steve, you still need six or seven democrats to cross party

lines to agree to stuff. unless they jam it through on some budget -- >> i think they will. i think we're going to get significant tax reform. and i think it's fantastic. but, again, how can six months ago we be complaining about valuations, when, in fact, valuations -- >> because there was no growth. because corporate tax structure was 40%. repatriation wasn't possible. >> okay. well, look, if you want to look forward to 2018 earnings -- >> trying to hook you across the road, man. i'm the crossing guard. let tim seymour through. i'm trying to help you out, son. >> i can get across on my own, son. i'm fine. i just want consistency in the argument. i'm not saying anyone -- >> it is consistency. >> when i didn't see growth, i was negative on the market. when i see growth now and lowering tax brackets, both corporate and personal -- >> the s&p is chief. >> the s&p does have value. the s&p prices in future growth. for the first time ever, you're looking at growth. >> i've so the some advice. move to a grande from a venti.

>> the market is expensive. when you talk about a s&p at 25 times gap earnings, that is not cheap. and everything -- i think what tim is -- i'm not trying to put words in -- everything has to go right and everything seems -- the market seems to be saying president-elect trump is going to do in the next six months is going to work to perfection. i'm not certain that's going to happen. but i think the market participants are saying, you know what? i don't know if it's going to happen or not. but i don't want to get behind the curve on this. >> or maybe we've looked at it the wrong way. maybe instead of looking at it, guy, wow, look at what stocks have done, maybe flip it and say is the bond market selling because of other reasons and the money has to go somewhere? instead of looking at it like it's a great stock market situation. maybe it's just going to be a bad bond market situation. >> the speed in which the bond market has moved is not bullish, in my opinion. it's not because the economy got magically better overnight. there are other things going on. but you know what? market participants don't want to look at that right now.

>> steve grasso, what are some of the key levels we need to be watching right now. >> let's look at this chart. we'll talk about the dow. that's what everyone looks at. real traders basically watch -- watching the s&p, watching the russell. you have to watch the dow, because this round number is very important. so let's look at it through the prism of the old high. so the old high was back here in may of 2015. let's look at the august low in 2015, as well. now you start to come up with some replacement levels here. and this is why it's important. so when you look at that high, that low, those bounceback or those overreach levels in the dow, come out this way. this is your first area of resistance. we blew past that. this is right around where we closed today. basically, this is your 50, this is your 618. but it's 100% over that. so it's 150, 160 replacement on

a fbi levfib level. the big number is 20k. that's what everybody is eyeballing. if you look at this to everyone on the desk and everyone out there questioning this massive move that we have seen off the heels of the election, we have a lot of room to fall. so can you revert back? of course, you can. and you can revert back all the way here. it still will be a positive move. but you want to key in on these levels here. once you cross over those resistance levels, they become support. so just for those of you playing at home, if you translate this to an s&p, that level is 2134. we close 2150-ish, 56-ish. this is the level you watch for a reversion back. things can still be positive, even if we revert back to those numbers. >> really good chart work there, tim. everything is terrible seymour. >> i don't need to respond to that. people watch this show. and they know what i've been talking about. the bottom line here is -- and

we are talking about markets, too. so we're talking about fundamentals and we're talking about markets. i actually think that there is a rotation going on that can probably happen longer. i think in january, people are going to face the fact, the fed is a very big player, and that the vix shouldn't be below 13. that's all i'm saying. >> smart words of caution from tim seymour. on deck. honeywell with a bit of a stunning reversal after its second warning in just a few months. what is really going on at honeywell? we've got details, coming up next. plus, consumers are feeling the best they have in more than a year. so how come some shares of retailers just can't seem to get out of their own way? and trouble in the east. why china may be the biggest risk that few, not only, but few are talking about. more "fast money," straight ahead.

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all right. welcome back. let's talk honeywell. shares falling this morning after it warned on the fourth quarter. in fact, honeywell is no better than an empty chair at this point. but the stock rebounded to close fractionally higher. remember back in october, the company warned about the weakness in aerospace and energy markets. then ceo david cody, however, walked back the warning with jim

cramer on "mad money." >> i was wrong. this is one where i could have done a significantly better job of communicating this story. and we tried to do it in the context of 2017 is going to be good. but it seemed to get totally lost. >> so is this a communications problem? or is honeywell in real trouble, tim seymour? >> at best, o at worst, a communication problem. nothing wrong with the company. >> i think there is very little news here we should be paying that much attention to. what ceo doesn't have an incentive to make targets he can hit? the range they put out here and tweaked it because of tax levels. none of the segment guidance any different. if you think about it, the historical range between 6 and 10%, what utx does. i don't have a problem with anything that went on today. the communication isn't great. and maybe he was asked to come on and talk about it, and -- you know, got pinned a little bit in the corner or ultimately just didn't have full guidance on taxation. gene, coming back to clarify. i have no problem. >> karen, i think the market agrees. down 2% this morning, and then the market came to its senses.

actually ended up a little higher. >> right. i agree with tim. it's a communication issue which actually was from last time. >> right. not third quarter disappointment. >> so, yeah. i don't know why they did that last time. but i agree. >> you own honeywell? >> it goes higher. if you look at honeywell compared to names -- throw it in the lockheed martin camp, still a better company than general electric. 16 and a half times forward earnings. are there some obstacles in the way? absolutely. is that the preeminent company in that space? in my opinion, without question. just overly a chart of ge and honeywell over the last ten years, you get an idea. >> and based in your backyard. >> and based in my backyard. excellent point. >> employees are happy, everybody doing well? >> everybody is doing well. it's a beautiful place, right there off of route 24. you're familiar with it. >> love it. still ahead, as a group, retail stocks have been hum bug. falling 5% this week, despite cold weather, higher wages and a

surging stock market. what the heck is going on with retail? we've got a special report. ahead of that, here's what else is coming up on "fast." china's markets are going crazy. and it might just be the thing that ruins the trump rally. we'll explain. and later, bank of america is now a $22 stock. >> good lord! that's a lot of money! >> it is. but we'll show you how to get long for under a buck. when "fast money" returns.

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hi and welcome back. the holidays are nearly here. but it may not be such a holly jolly season for major retailers. in fact, this past week was the worst for the xrt, the big

retail etf since mid may. dominic chu still working, breaking things down for us. dom. >> that's right, brian. so it's that super saturday eve. that means one of the few efforts remaining to drive holiday sales before the year-end. so right now some parts of the retail world could use a little bit of good news. we took a look at the components of that reetf, the spider while stocks like the men's warehouse and jose bank, children's place, rung in with some stock cheer posting gains over the course of the last month. others have not fared quite as wel well. if you look at nordstrom, we mentioned this yesterday, guy adami did. lost 13% over the last month. other retail apparel retailers, guess, gap stores, urban outfitters, they have all lost about a fifth of their value or more during that same one-month

time span. and the worst-performing stock over the last month, sears holdings down 21, 22% at this point. this is supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year for consumer discretionary stocks, but brian, might take some real heavy lifting for retail names to avoid coal. >> like all the references, dom, i expect nothing less. let's trade this. karen, what do you think? >> yeah, well, the pain really is in the department store sector. you can't -- there are winners, like place or lulu foot locker. with in order nordstrom, downgrading it. >> boss number one ranked. one of the reasons they got so much attention. >> yeah, downgrade. and then macy's trading terribly. dillards. there is also this issue, steve might know more, potential tax issue for imported goods. i don't know why it is seeming to be so expensive on the stocks of department stores.

versus others. >> major headwind this week. no one knows what the border tax issue -- how it's going to be resolved. that's a wait and see. but the thought is behind retail that that border tax headwind is going to be much bigger than the tailwind of corporate tax cuts. so that's going to be -- remain to be seen, which one wins, which one loses. amazon out of the cross-hairs for now. i think you wind up buying amazon if you want to play retail. >> a lot of these names like a nordstrom, which tanked today, had huge runs. >> yes. supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year. isn't this the time that accentuates the structural problems these guys have? it's the worst time of the year. you'll see them lose more ground to amazon and secular stores. jpmorgan basically says the profile is still under pressure. no silver bullets in the top line. margins getting squeezed. yeah, a great balance sheet, but that's it. >> you know, what's behind you, brian? new york city's times square.

a lot of people out there. what do i do? i like to go out and talk to the people. find out what they're doing. so i did. check this out. ♪ >> have you done your holiday shopping yet? >> no, i haven't done it yet. >> yes, i have. >> not all of it. >> most of it. >> no. >> i am. this is the last piece. trip to new york city for my daughter. >> where do you shop, online or bricks and mortar? >> mostly online nowadays? >> i do it online this time. i have to. >> i didn't get it online, so -- >> both. >> looking bricks and mortar and going back and buying online. >> both. >> online. >> online. >> brick and mortar. >> a little of both. >> half and half. >> when you go to the brick and mortar shops, where are you going? >> unique shops. >> clothes stores, h & m, walgreens, self forra is my favorite. >> bath and body works. >> where do you go online? amazon? >> always amazon. >> amazon, ebay. >> what are you getting online,

brother? >> not coming out here and freezing my -- off. >> i'll buy you a coat. >> you're sweet! i dig you. >> what is the go-to gift this year for the family? >> a home-cooked meal. >> you can't buy that in the store, brian sullivan? >> why do you got to call me out like that, be man? >> i was tossing back to you, because you're the host. thank you again -- >> you're the host. >> doesn't make you less of a host. >> hot pants? is that what you are getting me for christmas? >> you're talking to the wrong guy. >> what was the take-away from that guy. >> a couple guys saying to me, i go to the brick and mortar stores. i check things out. very melissa lee. and then they go home and buy things online and i asked them, don't you feel like you're cheating and like, no. >> they call it showrooming? >> yeah, showrooming. >> i don't do that in best buy. >> all afternoon on a sunday -- >> on the couch -- leather couch. >> you can watch all of the games at once.

being a fly of a 100 eyes. let's not forget, only 8% of reretail transactions are done online. that's it. 92% of volume is still actually done in a store. >> come on. >> true. we act like it -- amazon is taking over the world. there is still a lot of retail opportunity, karen. >> also online doesn't mean that it's gone from -- so i own kors trading horrible. bad for the retail reits. >> thank you, karen. are christmas right around the corner, let's pick some stocking stuffers in lieu of our final trades. picks good for your portfolio. >> general mills. i am actually the -- the man that brings back christmas. i think the food processing -- i think there is an m & a bid in this name. trades higher. >> who doesn't want a taco in their stocking, really? >> i don't. >> okay. i would want a taco. >> a burrito would fit better. >> del taco restaurants, have done a great job growing.

it's a -- low-priced -- >> a taco in your stocking? >> a taco in your stocking. >> sounds like a song from the '80s. >> square, i've been on this. bought it, own it, square. >> square. >> one of my -- ashley leaving, last day today. at nbc news. you'll see her on tv. there she is now, red hat, rht. >> ashley, thank you for all of your work. >> thank you. >> appreciate that! >> nice job. >> all right. thank you all. "options action" is next.

didn't say i wanted it. said i was going to. >> guy on the street, nice job.

you got it! what do you think? if you're going to wish, wish big at the lexus december to remember sales event get up to $2500 customer cash on select 2016 and 2017 models for these terms. see your lexus dealer.

welcome back. still live at the nasdaq market site, freezing outside. but don't worry. we have got warm wishes for you. here's what's coming up on the show. >> money has got to be the shoes! >> shoes. >> sure, shoes. >> you sure it's not the shoes? >> actually, it's the charts. because they are looking bad for nike shares. we'll explain. plus, there'sim