>> there are headlines from the turkish president crossing. he gave a video message and sent his condolences to vladimir putin and family of slain ambassador andre, karlov. >> "closing bell" spepicks up coverage right now. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffith, stocks off the highs. dow is up 35 points still in the green as investors buy into the tech and the real estate sectors so far. they have been lagging lately. we have two stock pickers who tell us which home builders they think looks most attractive. >> financials led the market rally since the election. the hedge fund portfolio manager who bet against the housing market before the financial crisis says he is all in now on

the banks. we'll debate whether he is right coming up. and one story we have been following here on cnbc, russia's ambassador to turkey assassinated a few hours ago sparking increased geopolitical tensions. we are closely monitoring that story. we will talk about the impact it could have on the markets and ow russian president vladimir putin may respond. let's start with wall street's strategist predictions for the year ahead. if there is any upside left at this point after the big rally we have seen. dominic chu has that story for us. >> we do have quite a rally going on. we are just so close to record highs right now. if you look at the overall market here at cnbc we pulled a number of wall street strategists to get what their views are for neksz year and they do have a consensus perhaps upside. according to our forecast the year end forecast for the s&p

500 is 2,325. it's not far from where we are right now. it's only about 3% higher now. that is the middle observation, middle forecast. not a whole lot of movement. on the low end wells fargo expects a range around 2,280. that is on the low end of things. not far from where we are right now. on the high end. over at rbc says 2,500 if that were to happen that would be about 10% upside from here. overall remember these are forecast to change throughout the course of the year. these wall street get ready for next year and the possible catalysts these are numbers now and the stories on cnbc.com. i have tweeted out the story, as well, if you want to know the other forecast and who the participants are. >> it is that time of year. and now to the -- more of a crawl lately to 20,000. how long could it take to close above that historic benchmark?

>> obviously, the dow has been struggling to get over 20,000. it's the fifth day since crossing 19,900 but could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. we might struggle to get there for a while. when the dow crossed 4,900 there was no stopping it. three days later it is 5,000 and the day after it closed above 5 k. we're considering the move to 15,000. we blew right by 14,900 and hit 15,000 in the same day. our situation right now looks a lot like what happened at 10,000. we hit 9,900 and had to wait three trading days to touch 10,000 but then we have to wait a total of 12 days to close above 10,000. that included a close of 9997.6. and then dropped before coming back. this could be the make or break day. bill, i know you were there at the 9997.6 day.

i want to hear what it was like back then struggling to get to the level. >> this was in '99. i was hosting what we called market rap at the time. and we had prepared two shows that day. we were going to do one show if we closed above 10,000 and a normal show if we closed below 10,000. as the bell is ringing it is right on that number so i just held both scripts up and said we are going to wait a few minutes while we wait to see because we don't know which show we are doing. we ended up doing the regular show that day. finally we got to dust off the script for the dow 10,000 special and on we went. >> you just change the 1 to a 2 and you are ready to go this time. >> it feels a lot like that right now. let's get to our "closing bell" exchange for this monday. tom liden is with us. cnbc market analyst steve grasso is on the floor and we have rick

santelli at the cme in chicago. you said something, we were talking earlier about the financials and how they have led this market and some people feel like maybe they are overbought. you said to me overbought doesn't mean overowned. >> exactly. so funds have to catch up on their waiting of whether it be financials or energy. they have to buy an allocation, a certain amount of a position in that name or in that sector. so just because the stocks or the sector can be overbought on rsi, relative strength index doesn't mean they caught up in their holding. they don't catch up in their holding then they have to continue to buy. whether or not it is overbought or not. they don't have enough in their fund that's under the allocation of financial or energy. >> what are you guys a buyer of here? >> absolutely. following up we are just a couple of weeks away from year end rebalancing.

it's not just going to happen in the financials but we have seen a lot of money going into industrials and $100 billion in etfs just since the election. the biggest thing i think is small caps. the last three years small caps have under performed large caps and as we know over time they do outperform. iwm is seen almost $10 billion of your money in the last five weeks. i think the trend will continue during pro growth initiative that trump is all about for 2017. >> rick, we are just creeping along in equities. we are kind of stalling the post election rally. are you seeing the same thing in the markets? are we just kind of meandering here? what are we waiting for? >> we are definitely still marching in the other markets. it's just that the pace had slowed down. i think the market i'm watching the closest, the dollar index. if you look at the board the dollar index trading around

103.07. the current high close was last thursday a couple of ticks above 103. the interday high that week was 103.5 higher than we are now. but should they close here it will be a new high close. it's not doing it in an aggressive fashion just like interest rates. ten year note is down about five basis points but still that five basis points lower yield represents the mark from friday's close which was the highest close going back to september 17th of 2014. there is no give back. and i think that especially when it comes to the dollar index this is telling us a lot of information, bill. if you look at the differential between ten year notes and ten year and all of that leads you to a strong dollar and i think the weakness in the euro and the strength in the dollar may be overexaggerated with regard to how it benefits europe in the

exports or u.s. side on the purchasing power. i think it is a bad fundamental for the european economy and we should pay close attention for how it behaves. >> steve, i mean, if that is true there has just been so many different movements. the euro is weaker. that might be a bad signal. the confidence thing was pretty strong. they are trying to recapitalize. people are suggesting european equities are behind the u.s. markets here and are going to catch up. it is hard to tell whether it is better to invest overseas or stay here at home. >> there are so many stories inside the united states right now that people are trying to sift through where they should be and i would say that the dollar strength then you want to stay with the russell or smaller companies. you have to remember we are looking into corporate tax reform or personal and all of these levels coming in

drastically. this will benefit the consumer and corporations that are domicile inside the united states. i would say that we have enough in our wagon or our brackets that stocks can look at. i think there will be time to catch up but that trade is a couple of months away. >> i know our people are saying this market has gone as far as it is going to go. is there an etf that they can go to help them hedge their positions right now? >> i agree with what everyone is saying about overseasism we will continue to have a run but we are going to continue to have a run in the dollar. a couple of areas you need to think about is global allocations, making sure that their currency -- so a great hedge opportunity where it's

long dollar but against the other currency when you get that equity participation. i think that is something to consider. >> much has been made of the trump rally so far. it was interesting to see the approval ratings. i think this is 50%. but you were on meet the press yesterday and caused a bit of a stir. let's take a listen. >> this morning what it is -- when you are winning you -- it doesn't sound like the way the process ought to work. >> democracy is partly on law and partly tradition and custom. the peaceful transition of power is part of that custom. if you start eroding -- >> traditions and customs. we have less than 2% economy.

we have europe telling bruszles to hit the road. i think the media ought to focus on that nerve more. >> nothing to do with what happened in the election? >> pr dis that allowed? >> i don't know if it should be. he is definitely a hero of a lot of us. i have to say all that is straight when you are humming along. when you need change if change is the operative word we will push a lot of these right out the window. doesn't mean you violate rules or the constitution. if things were normal before we need something different now. >> that seems to be the idea. >> guys, thank you all for joining us today. appreciate it very much. first trading session we head to christmas and close things down for the year.

the dow could be higher by about 35 points. 19,877 is the level. s&p up about three. stevizeman stold cnbc he is bullish on the banks. two bank watchers will discuss whether he is right or not. later whether the comeback for coal under trump administration could swing the business back that way. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

the bank could reportedly settle that justice department case this week. reuters saying deutsche bank could be penalized less than $14 billion that justice initially requested so famously. it adds that the settlement

could be delayed by last minute obstacles. i think we are near the end of that long negotiation process. money manager of the big short fame telling cnbc this morning that he is bullish on financial stocks. >> steve izeman famous for predicting the financial crisis has turned his sights back to financials but is now bullish on banks. >> what i think is going to happen is i think the financial system is going to be partially deregulated. i think over the next couple of years there will be more leverage and this will be golden age of investing in financial stocks. >> you would be very long financial stocks. >> as long as i can be. >> is that where you are? >> that is what i am. >> banks have already rallied a lot. this in part due to hopes for deregulation and tax changes. more than anything because of the rising and steepening yield curve thus a constructive view

on the banks should be more based on whether you feel the move could be maintained or extended or whether deregulation or tax reform will arrive. in terms of valuation, things improved from one times price to 1.3 times. a big move in short space of time but they are still trading below the average highlighting scope for further upside despite that recent sharp rally. >> thank you. let's dig deeper into whether financials are a long term buy or not. >> joining us today vice chair and head of the investment group at arial investments and andrew kapron director of research at region atlantic. you are the bear in this group. you disagree with what steve eisman is pointing out. >> this is a big change. i have been very bullish on your show from valuation. morgan stanley and goldman sachs were trading at 80% as recently as june. with this move morgan stanley

has gone from 23 to 43. it is trading at 1.3 times. that's not outrageously overpriced but gone from being objectively cheap to fair value. sometimes things go from cheap to rich stopping only briefly at fair value. at this point i don't see how you can say banks are cheap. >> what would you say? >> i think bank stocks make a lot of sense today. i am bullish for three reasons. one is the potential for regulatory improvement, rolling back of dodd-frank or limiting regulatory exposures. banks are offering a lot of products at a loss because they can't invest the assets with the fed bumping interest rates up and committing to doing it more that could be a big improvement to banks, as well. >> and you don't -- to charles point you doint hg that is already in the stock and then some right now of the financials? >> we had a big move since november. if you look at a longer chart most banks are where they were

in early 2014. i think there is potential for improvement from here. >> i am trying to get over the fact that you are more bearish now. so is there anywhere in the financial -- do you then talk about the degree to which you disagree with steve eisman. is it simply valuation story? >> it really is. by the way, mid cap banks are trading at 2.2 times book. yes, the very largest banks 1.3 or 4. mid cap and small cap banks i think are overpriced. to answer your question there are financials that are still cheap. kkr is my favorite. kkr is still under loved because of its partnership structure. some asset management firms haven't caught up. they are cheap. there is not a long list. you can probably talk about maybe citi. they have a lot of challenges. fundamentally the business of being a bank is just not a good a business as the glory days.

so you can't just justify the prices that these things traded for. >> andy, a lot of people are expecting a rollback of sorts of dodd-frank. they are expecting rates token higher as the yield curve steepens here. it is not guaranteed at this point. what if those things don't happen or they take longer than anticipated? do you change your view or are you in this for the long term? >> even if things don't materialize quickly enough look at valuations that you are paying. citi group pays at price to earnings of 12. that is a very big discount that affords a lot of wiggle room. >> the mid cap banks are trading at 18 times forward. the s&p is 19. so there are individual names that are still cheap but broadly banks have gone from being cheap to being market levels of valuation if not higher. >> and this gets into semantics

to some degree but steve grasso has been pounding the table here on the floor of the new york stock exchange that financials are subject of what he calls position trading, not value trading right now. in other words, there are plenty of money managers who don't have or have not had a position in the financials and they need to get in no matter what the value is at this point because they are looking down the road when the day comes that the environment will improve. so can you really look at the valuations and decide that it is a good time to get in or not? >> right. so we would describe that as greater theory that the things i own right now are overpriced or fairly priced but somebody is going to have to buy them from me down the line. i admit i do agree in this case that that is true. the banks are such a big weight in the number of indexes and people have been under weight and i think that is a dangerous game to play to be anticipating what somebody else is going to buy from you something that

is -- >> can't wait to text grasso on that one. charles, andy, good to see you both. thank you for joining us today. >> it was a pleasure. we are heading to the close. 40 minutes left in the trading session. the dow was up 74 at the peak of the day. we were in record territory but now we are not. we are up 17 points at the moment as we slowly make our way perhaps to dow 20,000. >> it could be a series of what looked to be terror attacks that really fed into this. police say nine people are dead after a truck plowed into a christmas market in berlin. we have the latest in just a moment. and then a little later stocks in our so-called trump cabinet index are beating the market. we will run through a list of those stocks that are benefitting.

we have a news alert on general motors. phil lebeau has the details. >> general motors is going to be idling five of its plants here in the u.s. in january as it tries to bring down its inventory. the five plants which will be idled include bowling -- lansing, grand river as well as lords town. those are all car plants. gm tries to bring down inventory. gm's vehicle inventory is 87 day

supply at the end of november. they want that to be closer to 70 day supply. >> thank you very much. let's get to one of these stories we have been following for the last hour or so about a truck plowing into a crowd at one of these outdoor make shift christmas markets in berlin. there are a number of them throughout that city. in this case the truck plowed into the crowd killing nine people and injuring at least 50 others. joining us now with very, very early thoughts on this, colonel jack jacobs as is former fbi profiler. good to see you both. this is reminiscent first blush to the attack on bastile day. police aren't trying to say that this is a terror attack but they feel like this felt like an attack. >> it sounds and looks exactly

like not only the previous attacks, but also instructions that were issued by isis to sympathizers around the world to do exactly this and exactly now. as isis had more and more difficulty on the conventional battlefield they issued more instructions to sympathizers around the world to attack using these means because they have no other means available to them. >> and germany has been dealing with a number of attacks. so there was recently a backpack left nearby just in the last couple of days. angela merkel is already under tremendous pressure about her stance on migrants and other things. this comes at a particularly vulnerable point. >> this takes us back as jack was suggesting the incident that took place at nice. one took place in germany at another shopping center where an

iranian borne individual used a weapon, firearm to kill eight people. we are hearing isis and other groups calling for these type of attacks. this is the reason why the state department has issued a warning and told american tourists to stay away from these types of markets. of course, as former fbi agent one of our biggest fears always was this time between thanksgiving and christmas when our markets or shopping centers are so vulnerable and a similar type attack could take place in america. i think that is why we are all leaning forward in the saddle. is this a terrorist attack? as jack says it sounds like it. if so might this be repeated around the world? >> colonel, we are told to go about our lives. we don't want the terrorist to win but at the same time as clint is pointing out this is a time of the year when we have to

be most vigilant about what is going on here. >> you have to be vigilant. it is difficult to do in crowded cities. what we do rely on is that law enforcement has good intelligence and will act on it it. you saw recently in france i think a week or two ago when they uncovered a plot, arrested five people, maybe clint can correct me, may have been five separate attacks planned inside france. our intelligence apparatus or law enforcement is constantly talking to each other and with foreign law enforcement to make sure that we have the best possible intelligence to pick out these potential attacks before they happen. we have been very successful in doing that which is one reason why the terrorists haven't been as successful as otherwise would be. we do have to remain vigilant. >> the islamic state obviously this is a group that had a considerable amount of land mass

at its peak, while the rest of the world has been trying to push against that, the question is are they moving out and acting in different parts of the world? is this something that they can continue to reach out and inspire people anywhere at any time much like we saw in san bernardino. you can argue those attackers didn't know about isis until recently as recent evidence has suggested. what do you make of another attack like this happening. you used the key word which has inspired as jack and i and many of your listeners know it is one thing if our intelligence agencies have a chance to get up on communications, to insert under cover agents. if there is a group planning it. if we get the so-called inspired attacks where an individual is not communicating back and forth he or she or they are just reading various communications. they hear isis calling for these

types of attacks. they are inspired to do without any type of conspiracy. we are told this articulated truck was traveling about 40 miles per hour when it plowed into this area. that doesn't sound like an accident, but it does sound like something that is easy to do for one person to be so-called inspired and to take this on and to plow into this target rich environment that we call christmas shoppers. >> for those tuning in we are showing video. if we go back to that we had the wide shot to put it in perspective it is right next to the kaiser memorial which is that cuthederal that was destroyed virtually in world war ii by a bombing that they left intact just as it was at the end of world war ii. it is a famous landmark in berlin. that ad hoc christmas market is right next door to that.

>> to put it in perspective for those folks who know berlin. thank you both for your thoughts on this still breaking story. >> we are going into the final half hour of trading. the dow up 33 points as we creep ever closer to dow 20,000. >> separate tensions abroad. a gunman has assassinated the ambassador to turkey. an expert will join us next to discuss those ramifications. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.

what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley

time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> we are finding out new details on the developing situation in berlin where a truck plowed into a christmas market in berlin in the center of town. police say nine are dead with at least another 50 injured. police are investigating they have not excluded any possibilities. police say there were two drivers in the truck. one fled and one i believe has been captured. >> the power said the people

should be horrified by syria's actions. >> it is our job as a u.n. community to ensure that those monitors get deployed urgently and that the risk that families who have lost literally everything, the risks that they undertake in route out of the besieged last part of eastern aleppo is mitigated. >> and a gunman opened fire on russia's ambassador to turkey at a photo exhibition shouting don't forget syria. russia's foreign ministry says the ambassador was killed and called it a terrorist attack. turkish tv say police have shot and killed the gunman who was a turkish policeman. russian president putin called it an act of provocation. this? sentence in ankara comes a day or so before russia and turkey and iran were going to sit down

and try to have a conference on this. they are saying they are still going to do this but we will see. >> they say it will go on. >> thank you very much. let's talk more about this assassination. bring in president of -- professor of international affairs at the new school, just another reminder of the dangerous world we live in. just to advance this we heard from kurdish president who said he called vladimir putin to offer condolences and they have apparently offered to continue the commitment to try and strengthen the relations between the two countries which as you well know have been running hot and cold the last few years. >> lately it has been running rather hot or began running hot again after turkey shot down a war plane about a year ago. so he was trying to make amends with putin and putin was very receptive to that. the economic ties are now stronger than they have been for a long, long time.

i think that for economic purposes they are certainly going to continue. i also think that this serves to both of them as a good political steps because they can both argue that turkey and russia both suffer from terrorism and now it has been reports that this policeman or policeman was allegedly fired for being -- by the planning or participating in the coup and also the latest story is that is why putin called it a provocation because apparently that is connected to the network in the united states. so they are going to both make the united states an enemy and therefore probably unite on that front, as well. >> so this to you does not represent a problem to relation which recently warmed between turkey and russia. represents perhaps a threat between relationship of the u.s. and those countries?

>> it represents a problem. we know from politics you play those situations the way you want them to play politically. of course, putin can say all of these troubles come out of turkey and he may say it very soon but for now i think if we look at it in short term strategic terms for both putin it is better to play as if they are both victims of same terrorism and potentially of the united states. >> all of this occurs at a sensitive moment for the u.s. as we have a transition of power. what do you suspect the role of u.s. should be going forward in the relationship between turkey and russia? >> i think the united states should be very wary of russian and turkish relationship getting stronger. i'm not suggesting that -- >> it's either going to get stronger or not. is there something we can do to slow that down? >> when the united states is

interested in turkey or russia being an enemy and turkey being a friend -- >> hugely strategic because turkey is a nato ally. i think that the trump decision, i don't know if they are capable of making those but certainly their foreign policy should be multi pronged. i don't know if they are capable. the new secretary of state has great relationship with russia. it is possible that everybody is going to play the putin side. >> it's going to be an interesting few months. always good to see you. thank you for joining us. >> we have 20 minutes left in the trading session with the dow up 34 points. up next home builder stocks are on the move higher. two stock pros on the stocks in that sector that you should be buying. stay with us.

welcome back. let's check movers on wall street. clovi oncology is popping. the fda has granted accelerated approval to clovis' ovarian cancer drug to help patients

whose diseases advanced despite chemotherapy. shares of vale and mosaic are lower. the brazilian mining firm says it is selling most fertilizer business for $2.5 billion in cash and stock. home builders getting a boost after lenmar beat estimates. joining us now is megan mcgrath. welcome to you both. megan, would you buy the builders even as interest rates are going up? >> we are a little bit cautious on the sector. mortgage rates, it is pretty rare to see home building stocks do better in a higher mortgage rate environment and it's been difficult to see an acceleration in order pace. so we are cautious. we are going to wait until we

see what the spring selling season is going to do. that is when we make decision on whether to get more aggressive. >> what is your view? you picking anything? you buying anything? >> the focus we have had is on builders that do 40% to 50% of their business in entry level. we feel like the mortgage market has loosened up for first time in entry level buyer. dr horton, kb homes, names that folks, that is what we would be buying at this point. >> i'm not sure if your picks jive with that. >> we are taking a different tact. we like toll. we think they are one of the under appreciated builders that might benefit from the new administration with the luxury market. something that might be appreciated is the stock market is doing well. generally pay in cash. they have a high cash percentage. so wouldn't be impacted as much by the higher mortgage rates. we like the valuation on that

one. calatlantic very diverse builder. we like the fact that they are diversified in good parts of the country. >> you are picking those that would cater to the starter homes, the entry level. aren't they the most vulnerable to a rising interest rate market? it it has been very tough for those people to get mortgages to enter this market to begin with. there has been a bottleneck there that has occurred. >> what we have seen over the last year is that the gses have loosened under writing standards for some of those hardest hit buyers. we have seen the fha reduce their standards. we are coming into an environment where you have very little supply, roughly three months of inventory at most of the large markets for the builders. with the loosening mortgage under writing conditions we think entry level buyers and builders have more upside potential than other names in the group. >> while you talked about why you like other parts of the

market do you have a view on entry level buyers? >> it sounds like they are starting to come back. it is also starting to get to be a pretty crowded market. you starting to hear a lot of builders going down in terms of price point to the builders. we think it might start to get crowded in 2017. i wouldn't necessarily count on the millennials coming in and saving the market. a lot of anticipation that that was going to happen and it didn't happen then i'm not sure it will happen in this upcoming year. >> it could be boring if you guys agreed on everything. good to see you. thank you for joining us. merry christmas. >> 13 minutes to go into the close. dow holding on to a gain. green arrows across the board with s&p up two. up next we are going to take a look abroad with a focus on the dollar and some recommendations on international stocks. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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ten minutes leftment art cashin pointed out the market on

close orders 250 million to sell which is symptomatic of today's trade, light volume and just meandering along here. >> seeing if we can hang on to slight gains. as we head to the close look at top stories. first financials have been lagging but they are still bullish sentiment for that sector. steve eisman whose famous bet against the system said on squawk box this morning the next couple of years will be a golden age of investing in financial stocks. those are his words. fed chair janet yellen reiterated her confidence in the economy and job market today that was during a commencement speech at the university of baltimore. she said the job market is the strongest it has been in nearly a decade. the real estate sector helps lead stocks higher today. the move coming after home building giant beat earnings estimates on the top and bottom line. and joining us now to discuss their thoughts in the

markets hang smith who joins us as chief investment officer. welcome to you both. sam, what do you like about this market? >> i guess what i like about the market is that we are three months away from the eighth year. even though only one other bull market since world war ii has lasted this long the things that would end up throwing us off track meaning indicators for a recession are just not there. looking at typically a 30% decline in housing starts, looking at about a 20% decline in consumer confidence and then a six month decline in leading economic indicators those numbers typically have to be present accompanying the beginning of a recession. it's just not there. >> we have talked in the past about how this market rally had broadened. we have gone past usual suspects that had been leading the way. i like the financials and

industrials. and we are starting to see other sectors that have lagged start to move higher. does that work for you? are you bullish on this market right now as a result? >> absolutely. i think there are two sides to the trump trade. what has worked obviously financials and industrials. what hasn't worked consumer staples utilities and that is where some opportunity lies right now. i agree 100% with sam. i would add to that that finally coming into the eighth year of a bull market we are starting to see animal spirits. we are starting to see investor confidence. you see that in fund flows. finally, money coming into equity mutual funds, coming out of fixed income funds. we could be at the very beginning of a so-called great rotation that may take several years and be a tail wind for this bull market. >> why, then, sam are you recommending foreign stock snz. >> foreign stocks is an area that basically everyone seems to hate. we have been seeing about a 5.5%

strengthening in the value of the u.s. dollar because of the trump bump. we are looking at head winds when it comes to europe and overseas. so it is funny there is an etf based on euro 350 whose ticker symbol is eu. that is usually how people feel about it. >> you didn't give the answer i thought you would. isn't it as simple as the strong dollar we are seeing right now? we are at a 14-year high on the dollar. >> 14-year high on the dollar, we are at basically extreme levels of relative under performance by international stocks whether looking at developed or emerging markets. you are looking at a rolling ten year compound annual growth rate that is rivaling where it was in february of '09. basically my feeling is that when you are looking also at valuations that are 250 basis points for the msci below the

s&p 500 you are looking at a dividend yield that is more than 50% above the s&p 500 on a relative basis, an area that everyone seems to hate, an area that you might want to consider. >> its do we hit 20,000 before the end of the year? >> i think we do. and, look, there is a big consensus out there that in the new year some selling pressure will develop maybe before or after the inauguration. that is really a consensus bet. what we have learned in the past year is that it has not paid to be with the consensus. so maybe this bull market surprises everyone in the beginning of the new year and continues moving. that said, it is going to be a market based on earnings for next year. i don't think you will need much expansion. you can get a high single digit return without expansion and that will be very healthy for the market. >> good to see you all. thank you. hank, nice to see you, as well.

good day. up next we have the closing count down. >> disney cleaning up at the box office with rogue one "star wars" film. we will have a look at the impact the movie is having on its stock. stay with us.

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bob pisani joining me for the closing count down. a quick look at the dow itself. for a time we were in all-time high territory. we are not now. >> the russian ambassador to turkey, that was a little after 11:00. you see the market, this is one of the reasons i still think dow 20,000 will happen likely this week because the market doesn't really go down. it's a bit trendless. i have been complaining about that. bank stocks come back a little bit today and tech stocks came back today. your apples and other big tech names in the dow like ibm. >> what else has resilience is the dollar. dollar index continued higher today. we are at 103.14. we hit 103.5. >> the important thing is the optimist, the bulls, whatever

you want to call still have most momentum. that is why i think the market will hit 20,000 soon. >> you are on the record now. >> i am. thank you, bob. >> we go out with modest gains for the dow and s&p up. stay tuned for the second hour of "closing bell" with kelly evans and company. i'll see you tomorrow, kelly. >> thank you, bill. welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans. here is where we are finishing up the day on wall street with the dow hanging on to a gain closing up 41 points. 198,8 1 19,884. the s&p 500 up 2,262. about 4.5 point gain. the nasdaq 5,457. the russell outperforming up to 1,371. the dow higher for the sixth straight week coming off that string and adding to it just a

bit. joining me on the panel we have cnbc senior markets commenter and pro columnist michael santoli along with brian kelly. michael, your thoughts on the market? >> mostly a flat day. for about a week and a half the market has kind of retained its gains from the rally. it has been handing the lead back and forth among the different groups. it's like five people in the water. there are only four life rafts. i think that is kind of okay for now. the big question is are we set up in the way similar to the past couple of decembers where we had a strong finish and then you had to give back in january. i don't think it is clear that is the case right now. you had the vix below 12 which reflects the gentle pace as opposed to being really a warning sign. >> it feels like the energy has come out a little bit of this market. let's not forget there were a few things happening during the

session today that assassination in turkey and of course the plowing down of people in germany which we are still getting information about that story, a tragic event in berlin that happened a few hours ago. how do you figure out the impact that all of that is having on this close? >> we don't have all the facts and figures. when i saw the news in turkey this morning my first reaction was how does vladimir putin react and what does that do to the markets? you saw the bond market rally a little bit off of that. that is probably the biggest thing you can say about that. as for the froth in the market we have two weeks left in the year. you have a lot of people who are not wanting to sell. they are probably going to sell first week of january if they wanted to for the tax purposes. you know taxes next year are likely to be lower. we have the two-week period where you can see the market lev tate for no reason whatsoever then the supply of stocks has decreased. >> i do think there is that

effect that there is no rush to sell. people felt so under invested once this rally really gained speed even before the election but especially after the election. you don't just automatically flip and say now i am in profit taking mode. i do think there is a little bit of support factor there. i also think, though, the secondary factors that say is the market very vulnerable they are not flashing worry signs. the credit markets are okay. you seeing upturn in indicators. it is not as if the stock market is levitating. >> what is falling apart just to bring up the malaysian it is slowest. are we starting to really have to kind of watch these hot spots in terms of places where the strong dollar could trigger more than just a weakening of a currency, maybe something a little more severe? >> that could be the story of 2017. some kind of an emerging markets bond crisis. we know there are over $9 trillion of u.s. dollar

denominated debt taken out basically since the great financial crisis. you get a stronger dollar. it costs more to service that debt. and then the only way to service that debt if you are a government you need to devalue your currency. you see stuff like the singapore dollar. all of those asian currencies are weakening significantly and that will likely be a trend that continues into 2017 and that is what investors want to watch out for is what kind of impact that will have on u.s. stocks. >>. >> i was going to say you have several of these trends where the question as you go into next year are where is the pain threshold? how strong is too strong for the u.s. dollar? how high can treasury yields go without tripping valuation wires. all of the things are in a zone that are okay. if the trends really do pick up steam and go much farther than maybe you have to worry about something breaking loose. in china i say it is right there when the market goes in search

of something to worry about. >> today in terms of all-time highs earlier in the session had one all state. other news with fairfax making a deal. there is percolating deal activity. i wonder this year is a big step back from 2015 but are the conditions like you said strong credit, maybe stocks are too expensi expensive. >> strong credit and you have a general long stretch of relatively strong stock prices. where we are on the economic cycle is about when you have companies looking to buy growth or rationalize. i think it makes a lot of sense for there to be a continuing subplot even if it is not a mad rush of mega deals. we have breaking news on bio gen. >> after five month surge it is naming the chief commercial officer michelle as new ceo. this was earlier reported by reuters. we have confirmed that report expected to start in january. he has been with the company

since april. we knew that the ceo was going to leave the company. they started the search i believe in late july. bio genstock. it is down about 1% now. we will bring you more news on this. >> what do you make of the fact that shares moving lower on the announcement? >> as a ceo or incoming ceo the last thing you want to do as it gets announced and the stock price goes lower. we will have to see as it goes on. it is more of the sentiment thing about the new ceo rather than a comment on the company. >> as meg said, if people thought maybe this was going to be a take out candidate if you have a ceo from inside does it change the calculus as to whether they are a seller. it is hard to say. >> do you think -- sounds to me reflective of reality or rumor mill around this name?

>> there has been the talk that bio genis a potential candidate because of the uncertainty. it wasn't something i heard any actual reality but something everybody speculated about. perhaps the stock reacting and now down less than 1%ism thinking a new ceo means maybe they are not planning to sell. >> thanks for joining us with that news. a new ceo becoming effective come january. as we mentioned a truck plowing into a crowd at a christmas market in berlin killing nine, injurying at least 50 people. this all happening in the plast couple of hours. there are live pictures. joining us with more is the berlin correspondent for the financial times. he joins us now by phone. thank you for calling in. what is the latest you can tell us about the nature of the attack at this hour? >> well, it seems that a truck driver just sort of drove on to

the pavement and into a christmas market in the center of berlin in a very busy shopping street. it's really sort of the commercial hub of west berlin. and nine people were killed and reports that some 50 people were injured. if this is confirmed that it is a terror attack which police aren't saying just yet this would be one of the most severe incidents of its kind to happen in germany. we had a couple of refugees sort of carrying out small terror attacks in the summer but this is on a much greater scale. >> is there a sense that when it comes to the scale and the number of fatalities involved here that this will keep climbing? is it clear now that all of what has happened?

>> no. police are saying that the situation is very unclear. and which does indicate that there might be high casualties. initially they said that just one person had died and then they raised the death toll to nine. but i wouldn't be surprised if it continues to climb because this truck apparently plowed into the market. it travelled for about 50 to 80 meters before it came to a halt. and there was just a scene of devastation that it left in its wake with all the little market stalls in the christmas market just in ruins, completely destroyed. we are still getting details of how many people were affected by this. but certainly the death toll currently stands at nine. >> right. what about the driver or drivers? what do we know about them?

it sounds like one was possibly being apprehended. >> one of them escaped. there was a man hunt for him. but he was arrested shortly afterwards. his co-driver apparently was killed although it is unclear under what circumstances. but it does seem like the actual driver of the vehicle was apprehended. >> any further detail on who these people were at this point? >> no, nothing at all. the police are tweeting, but there is very scarce information at the moment about who the perpetrators were and the details of the attack. >> one of the most popular events in germany, the christmas time markets takes a tragic turn. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> and you are looking at berlin. is this something that will feed

into the market for the next couple of days now, too? as you mentioned earlier there is also the killing of the ambassador. that appeared to have a more direct effect. >> what is sad is we have gotten so used to things happening in the world that i don't think it will have a major impact on the market. it is horrible to say that. it feels as though these terrorist attacks happen all the time and the market seems to bounce back and it gets desensitized. this is not something that -- it is not an investable theme. it is just a comment on what the market does. >> thank you for joining us. we will let you get ready for fast money. stick around to catch him and the crew with tony dwyer. coming up president-elect trump has promised to bring back coal jobs. somebody here says many energy companies including his own have permanently pivoted away from coal towards natural gas.

cfo weighs in on the trump pledge. "rogue one." will the latest success help power one of the worst performing dow stocks this year? we will hear both sides when we come back. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

disney one of the best performing stocks in the dow after the latest installment turned in a blockbuster performance at the box office. julia boorstin has the latest. >> reporter: disney shares getting a lift from those stronger than expected numbers as well as from merrill lynch adding disney with buy waiting and $125 price target on the stock. disney announced that "rogue one's" block-bustibuster numberg it to first -- demonstrating that disney can successfully spin off "star wars" films and expand franchise to annual film event. "rogue one" grossing better than expected $155 million in north america, third biggest opening of the year. $290 million globally so far.

jp morgan projecting that disney studio can generate $600 million plus in profits on the film which can have a near term positive and longer term could boost theme park attendance and spending at the two "star wars" lands in the works. it will face a slew of competitors analysts are bullish that on strong critical reviews and strong word of mouth it will hold up pretty well. back over to you. >> thank you. is the strong week in box office a reason to be bullish? let's bring in ivan who joins us here. he has a strong buy rating on disney. and larry haverty joins us. so can the studio just kind of be the story for disney with espn not withstanding? >> absolutely. i think they have many positive trends. the movie slate is strong and the issues with espn are turning

around. >> so that's different than saying they don't matter. you think espn thing is plateauing? the subscriber losses have been pretty large. >> i think the subscriber loss is troughing. i think the purchase will allow them to offer as a stand alone service and include it in skinny bundles. i think that the power of the studio is just incredible and it has a tremendous halo effect for the sale of consumer products and also attendance to the theme park. >> same question. how much is already baked in for the success here? it is a high bar to have to keep clearing. >> i think if you were in a poker game you would say they hold all the cards. i agree with everything that ivan said. and you have this tremendously strong balance sheet. they are less levered. they are spectacular at making deals. pixar, marvel and lucas were

acquisitions made in the last 20 years. they have been phenomenally successful. over that period of time they have retired probably 25% of the stock at significantly lower prices. so they have been very, very good stuards and get an a grade in financial management. you go into a toys r us and it is pretty amazing. they have a huge number of square feet of lineal footage on "star wars" stuff. the manufacture is lego. lego which is one of the great consumer franchises in the world is paying disney a royalty to use its ip. you have the stock in addition it sells at less than consumer product companies. i think the stock does a lot, lot higher. >> i think part of the back drop is when disney peaked back in the summer of 2015 when people

thought basically nothing could penetrate the espn franchise and cable bundle it was 22 times forward earnings. very expensive. it came down to below 16. now it is rebounding. the stock is at levels it first got to in early 2015. in other words, you are kind of retracing losses and makes sense especially because i think things like launch of directv now, the new sort of streaming service has reinforced in people's minds that is not that easy to get good value and penetrate the cable bundle. i don't think the market pays for box office but it pays for franchises that do well at the box office. that is probably where "star wars" is. >> is that why you think it can command a higher multiple even though the business is particularly more volatile? >> i agree because content is king and disney is the king of content. they got more blockbuster franchise value than any other

media company. they set records and beat records and continue to put out "star wars" movies, marvel movies and have a tremendous slate coming out for 2017. you have pirates of the caribbean movie and another "star wars" movie coming. >> there is your case for disney. thank you for joining us. talking about the mouse ears. today is one of the busiest shipping days of the year. i was at the post office for an hour. up next we look at whether adding sunday delivers and more staff could take a bite out of profits. what kind of impact can president trump's tough trade talk have on the economy? my business was built with passion... but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business...

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i think we know how many days until christmas. ups and fed ex are doing everything they can to make sure packages arrive on time. morgan brennan has more on how they are doing that. >> reporter: so today is likely to be the busiest day for ups. it is one of the busiest for fed ex. both companies anticipating that they are going to move roughly double their average daily volumes today. it's also the busiest mailing day for the u.s. postal service with thursday expected to be peak delivery day there. combined all three together are anticipating delivering

estimated 1.8 billion packages this holiday season and have been prepping since january to be able to pull this off. ups has opened 15 new or expanded facilities. it has set up mobile villages to handle overflow and deployed new tracking tech. it relies on truckers and also reliez on railroads to get a lot of packages around the country. this is something i saw first-hand with csx recently. fed ex has brought 30 new planes into the express fleet, invested $2 billion into ground operations including six facilities specially designed to handle oversized items like swing sets and trampolines, furniture which are more labor intensive and now make up about 10% of the company's overall package mix. as for the postal service added several thousand trucks, installed more sorting equipment and delivering millions of packages on sundays especially for amazon which uses the postal service for the lion's share of its u.s. shipments with some

service expected to happen on christmas day. of course, the big question as we get to this final count down, final days into christmas and hanukkah weekend is this enough to get the packages under the tree and all of these packages under the tree without costing more than expected. if you take a look at shares of fed ex and ups both did trade higher on the session. it would seem the street is hopeful. back to you. >> i was reading the "l.a. times" somebody talking about this guy who drives for a contractor for amazon and the way that he has to do two deliveries a minute. they are allowed two complaints per 1,000. they can take a lunch break but they get calls saying why aren't you moving? >> i am fascinated by what it is doing to shopping behavior. the big shift to online and delivery and if they can get closer to real time to on demand then it lengthenathize shopping

period. i think over the years it is going to be interesting to analyze how it shakes out. >> has the peak day gotten later? >> it has. it's inched closer and closer to christmas every year. just when you think three years ago in 2013 if you looked at the peak shipping day forecast for ups and fed ex they are much earlier in the season and in response to that you will remember that they had a huge deluge of last minute packages in the bad weather. >> doing everything they can to avoid that this time around. it is fascinating. thank you. >> keeping an eye on them there. president-elect trump ran on protectionist trade policies. how easy or difficult will it be to renegotiate deals like nafta. ron kirk joins us next. we have the results of the latest cnbc millionaire survey. you may be surprised by how much they are spending on holiday gifts. we are back in a moment. this e

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here is a look at how we finish on wall street. we managed to stay positive. the dow is up 39 points.

the s&p was up about 4.5. the russell up to 1,371 good for half percent gain. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> here is what is happening at this hour. the white house says president obama has pardoned 78 people and shortened the sentence of 153 others convicted of federal crimes. it is the most number of individual clemencies in a single day by any president. three people were hurt in a shooting near an islamic center. swiss media say a suspect was on the run. it is not immediately clear what the motive was. christine laguard found guilty of criminal charges linked to misuse of public funds. no sentence was handed down and she will not face jail time. the imf says the executive board is meeting to consider the latest developments. and north carolina governor

elect announcing that legislators will hold a special session to repeal the law known as hb 2 which limits protections for lgbt people. it requires transgender people to use restrooms corresponding with the sex on their birth certificates in public buildings. and that is the news update this hour. >> thank you. president-elect trump making his pick for secretary of the army and it is a pretty familiar name on wall street. eamon javers has details. >> you can add another billionaire to team trump. vincent viola expected to be named by donald trump as new secretary of the army. he is of course executive chairman of virtu financial. he owns florida panthers and was a former u.s. army second lieutenant. congressman nick molvani

expected for pick. he sits on financial services and oversight committees. he ran his family's real estate business. another business person being brought into the trump team. he is author of cut, cap and balance act. he is big on cutting spending. another name that might be familiar is in the mix for discussions about a possible pick as a deputy secretary at the pentagon. that is david mccormick. he is under secretary for international affairs and a west point graduate and was officer in the first gulf war. donald trump is down at sunny -- the transition work clearly rolls on throughout his trip to florida. >> thank you. and it was eight years ago today that our next guest was nominated to serve as u.s. trade representative and as the cabinet shapes up market watchers are waiting on who he will pick for that spot especially in the light of controversial comments over u.s. trade policy.

joining us now is ron kirk, former ambassador and u.s. trade repfrom 2009 until 2013. welcome. >> thanks for having me on. it is good to be with you. >> thank you for being here. i was reading about how long it had taken to name the trade rep and didn't know george w. bush considered demoting it. that's why it took a couple of months to fill it. why should it be in the cabinet? >> congress mandated that it do so. it was a little over 60 years ago that mostly businesses and farmers petitioned congress to have someone within the office of the presidency that singularly looked at the commercial interests of u.s. and exporters of businesses and workers and that was the birthing of the office of the u.s. trade rep. i think it is important that we elevate that because so much of our economy is dependent on our ability to sell to these billions of new consumers around

the world what we produce, what we grow, what we innovate and make here in america. >> that said, it's reported that president-elect trump would have his commerce secretary spear heading trade negotiations that even if they named a trade repthat it would be that commerce position that really had the authority. what is wrong with that? >> it would put the new president on a collision course with congress. i know we don't have that much time but americans -- a lot of americans forget that congress deliberately retained the authority in the constitution over trade and through a series of legislative delegations. they have delegated that responsibility to the office of the president through the ustr. no matter what the president might do ustr still reports to both the house, weighs and means committee and senate finance committees and those chair men

typically have a very strong say in the operation of that office. now, we worked hand in hand with our colleagues at the state department and at the department of commerce. but for whoever president-elect trump may pick the one thing all of our partners around the globe will look at is does this person have the president's confidence or are they having to work through commerce or state? >> a couple of picks apparently on the short list are david mccormick who we just named there and wayne berman along with a couple of others. these are private sector figures but i'm sure you would say it helps to have experience in the business world particularly one where you are doing business abroad to be able to be an effective trade rep. does somebody with more specialized interest need to hold this kind of position? >> there has been a mix of both. i came out of the private sector. i had background from my experience as mayor that gave me

an acute understanding of how important trade is to our economy. you have had several trade representatives come with a more technical background. i think the most important criteria is what is your relationship with that president? if the people that you are sitting across the table negotiating with believe that when you speak you're speaking for the president then you are going to be an effective trade representative. if they think as you implied earlier that the power is really going to reside either in commerce or the state department or elsewhere then they just aren't going to really sit down and negotiate with you in a meaningful way. i think the background of those in the private sector can be very useful in this particular job. >> i was going to say perhaps should name one of his kids if that is the case. >> it sounds like his kids are going to have quite a bit on their plate already. >> i wonder obviously trade

issues were central to donald trump's campaign. we have known what he said since then about aggressive perhaps negotiations with trading partners and also perhaps not emphasizing things like regional trade agreements. what have you heard from your counter parts in terms of our trading partners overseas so far about the prospect of this shift in policy? >> as you can imagine with a lot of our counterparts from around the world there is quite a bit of anxiety and not withstanding the rhetoric of the campaign. in fairness to mr. trump i supported a candidate who backed away from her long time support of trade, as well skpmpt unfortunately, trade has become a real whipping boy in our presidential politics. but the reality is we are still the economic anchor for the world and no matter how we may beat up on trade 95% of the world's consumers live elsewhere. and the world wants to be

engaged with the u.s. because of our rule of law, because of our openness and transparency. when we do a trade agreement it tends to elevate standards for workers all around the world but more importantly and critically it protects the interests of u.s. farmers and small businesses and manufacturers. so our partners are hoping that once we get past the rhetoric of the campaign season that the new president particularly since he has done business in asia and china and we know his clothes are made in mexico that perhaps what he has done in his business will be more reflected of his approach to economic engagement than what he said on the campaign trail. >> i think a lot of wall street is waiting with baited breath. thank you for joining us. >> thanks so much for having me. >> sharing his thoughts on the position. coal futures are down more than 5% since the election despite donald trump's promises to revitalize that industry.

energy exec weighs in on why the company made the switch and why he says there is no going back. riskier mortgage products are making a comeback. is this a warning sign for the housing market? we'll dig into those numbers next. what's the value of capital? what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley

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welcome back. interest rates are on the rise after sitting at historic lows. will alternative mortgage products make a comeback.

taking a look and she has more now. >> they absolutely should. ever since the mortgage melt down we have been fixed on the 30-year fixed and it is not the best product for everyone. dare i suggest the adjustable rate mortgage. it was the villain of the crash but it is far safer now and cheaper. take a look. the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is around 4.25%. that is up from 3.5% before the presidential election. the five-year arm is a full percentage point lower than the 30-year fixed today. the savings is therefore substantial. barely 6% of mortgage applications today are for arms. compare that to 35% during the housing boom. again, today's arm is far safer. new regulations that protect lenders and borrowers no longer allow interest only arms, negative amortization arms and for most loans you now have to pay principle along with the

interest and the lender has to under write the borrower for the full length of the loan so it ends up being under written like 30-year fixed. there are some interest only products out there but they are not common and they are far more expensive. when do these start getting risky? that depends on deregulation and on president-elect donald trump. >> do you think the market is going to push people to come up with more creative types of products or does there need to be deregulation for these to get out there? >> i think there has to be some deregulation because according to regulations now to do these loans they have to be under written very strictly and have to have the principle payment involved. independent lenders will do them but do them for high net worth borrowers and under very strict circumstances. if the market is going to open up, if they open up lending

which a lot of folks are expecting you could start to see more creative mortgage products. i do not think we will get back to the old days of 2006 where anyone and their dog could get a mortgage. >> probably a good thing. i wonder if we are talking about flexing at all in terms of down payment terms. is that one of the areas that has been an issue and might be loosened up? >> you can get a 3% down payment loan. the big banks are doing them. you have to have incredibly good credit scores and a job, everything fully documented. there are low down payment loans. are we going to get to the no down payment loans? it is certainly possible. i do think that under writing is going to stay pretty strict. you might get more creative on the loan product. i don't think you will get that much more creative on the under writing side. >> thank you. donald trump promising to resurrect the coal industry and put miners back to work.

as more energy companies are focussing on alternatives to coal can he deliver on that promise? dave khani joins us with his take right after this.

long time coal producer consul energy has been making the switch from coal to natural gas. with a promise of revitalizing coal country under new administration how will the company position itself going forward. joining us now is dave khani, the cfo. welcome. >> thanks. >> you made the move from coal to natural gas. is it for economic reasons? >> we saw several years ago that the world was heading towards natural gas. so we decided to shrink our coal

foot print and transform into an ep company. we ipos our thermal coal complex with anticipation of creating the split to become a pure play. >> given the way coal producers have gone it is certainly a savvy move. that said, the politics has been a huge influence here, as well. so would you guys have done this no matter who was president? did you feel like there was praersh from the obama administration to get out of coal? >> there has been regulatory pressure and there has been pressure from natural gas. so we saw the market share for coal was going to stagnate and come down. with the trump administration we see probably the market share starts to stabilize as you look out into the future. but again our goal is to split our companies and become a pure play company. we think the trump administration only strengthens our conviction that we will be able to do that and do that

quicker than we anticipate. >> why do you say that? what you are talking about is doubling down on natural gas. you think that is a better strategy even though he talked about bringing back coal on the campaign trail? >> we think that being a pure play ep company is the best way for us to grow our per share. we think that our coal complex will go and do their thing and generate distribution growth for its investors and for us we will be able to grow our production and drive our share price at the best clip over the long run. >> what happens if the president-elect saying consul, go back to coal. what would you guys do? >> there is nothing we would do differently. we would continue to go down the path we are doing. we are not getting out of coal but just splitting the entities and allowing the coal end to run

on its own pace. our business will run at its own pace. >> there is obviously a lot of hope in the energy industry about deregulatory moves under trump that could obviously help all different types of energy are there any specific provisions you would be looking for that would be of help to your business, whether in the pipeline area or restrictions on exploration? >> yeah. for us, probably the biggest thing is making sure the pipelines, the transportation pipelines, get built. and allow for the true price for natural gas within appalachia to reach a normal level. right now it trades at a discount to the nymex. if regulations could allow those pipelines to be built then prices within appalachia will normalize. >> >> finally, dave, what would help bring jobs back to the parts of the country that once used a lot more labor in terms of coal? >> i think if we see that

industrial manufacturing gets ratcheted up to a whole another level, whether it's infrastructure, the demand for power has been very stagnant over the last several years. really reflecting the move away from industrial and manufacturing. and so if we see that resurgence back, we see chemical plants come back online in the gulf coast, within appalachia, you're seeing the shell cracker going to get built. that will improve the use of both natural gas, coal and that will kick in jobs and it will be good for everybody. >> sounds like it. dave, thanks for joining us to explain what's going on there. >> thank you. >> dave cony, cfo at council energy. six shopping days level until christmas. how much millionaires are spending this season, next.

welcome back. the trump rally has the rich feeling richer. but it doesn't mean more presents under the tree. millionaire survey. robert? >> the cnbc millionaire survey say 66% say donald trump will good for their investments and

personal assets will increase. the big reason, lower taxes of those worth $5 million or more, 43% a tax cut. 40% plan to put extra money into stocks. butnary not doing blowing it all on this year's holiday gifts. 75% of until nars plan to spend less than $25 hub00, and 81% plan to spend the same as last year. 15% plan to spend more than 10 k. much lower than last year. now democratic millionaires are feeling especially stingy this year after the election. nearly a third will spend less than $500, compared with republicans where a third of them plan to send more than $2500. who are most people spending on? most goes to kids, but men are more than twice as likely to spend the most on their spouses. some spend on themselves.

>> not all skroojs, swimming in piles of money. n >> what's with the decrease in gift amounts this year? >> it was puzzling. the stock market going up, although that was sort of most of that after the survey took place. but i think generally, the wealthy are still in cash. a lot of cash. so there is still sort of a wait and see attitude about their spending. they have been spending throughout this recovery. so i think they kind of bought what they're going to buy. and they're just being conservative, waiting to see what happens next year. will this tax cut materialize, will the market still go up. and then they'll spend. >> so i see wealthy husbands also throw money at the problem. >> exactly. exactly. >> not restricted to those of us -- below $5 million. >> split so much by better party shapes your view of so much, the spending markets. democrats and republicans very different. >> absolutely. real quickly, people with the net worth of $1 million?

>> investable assets. separate from income, which is where the tax cuts really hit. that's why about half people -- most get a tax cut. but a million investable assets, not income. >> do you do billionaire survey too? >> next -- >> you have a phone. >> group text. >> it would take a little while. give me a few days. >> robert, thank you. earnings on deck this week. blackberry, nike and fed equities tomorrow. bed bath and beyond on wednesday. it's busy, even though we're headed right into the holiday. >> retailers and other companies kind of on an off fiscal year, i do think the difference between fedex -- nike is interesting too. you had this effect where nike and disney were two of the biggest laggards. put those in the same category of brands we love and stocks we also have loved. >> half. >> exactly. they're big laggards but picked up reasonable. you have to see if the numbers come through. >> do you think fedex will be able to offer further -- on top

of everything they have to do, this particular week, they're going to report their earnings, too. >> exactly. well, i think there's different people who actually put the earnings release together, hopefully. >> and deliver the packages. >> who are unloading the trucks. yeah, a tremendous amount going on. those stocks had such a tremendous vertical move. u.p.s. and fedex. shortly after the election had given some back. but one of the reasons the dow transports have been so powerful. >> going a different way, boeing. the rhetoric is heating up when they say if the incoming administration cancels, they want their down payment back with interest. we haven't really heard much about which way it's going to go. in the meantime, talking about laying off workers. >> yeah. >> and phil told us last week, they're also tamping down the production schedule. >> >> it's interesting. it's clear that boeing is just going to do what they planned to do with announcing job reductions. obviously they want to have this order go through. but they seem not to be adapting their message for expectations of what the incoming administration might say. who knows if they could do that

anyway. but it is fast alienating. >> right. listen, the planes -- they go to iran, might end up involved in syr syria. an incredibly risky deal. but they need to get those orders in before the end of the calendar year. the reason i raised it, what's happening with the transports. you mentioned fed "x" and u.p.s. finally all-time highs. here is one of the biggest bellwethers which appears to be finding its footing. >> totally on the airlines, the service providers and railroads. not as much in the defense and airplanes stocks. people think that they're in a harvesting cycle as opposed to an investment cycle. so they have done okay. but right now, people prefer the ones that have leveraged to the consumer end. >> so we have those earnings to look for. also reits on the consumer and different things with nike, bed bath and beyond. janet yellen had a big speech at 1:30, but it came andent. >> kids stay in school, college market grads. which might have known that. >> but the core message, it's if

you think functioning well. reasons why they may need to let it go longer. >> and young people are quite enthusiastic about job prospects too. >> has changed a lot from the '07, '08, '09 era. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. >> i guess the taxicabs give it away. i'm brian in for melissa. welcome. your traders tonight, brian kelly, karen finerman, david seaburg and guy adami. the strategists who said to buy stocks now says the party might be over. why tony dwyer says stocks are losing their mojo. and could be trouble for the rally and your money. a top technician is here to explain. and later, check out shares of biogen falling after a new ceo. don't worry, that ceo will join us later in the showor