is it tone from the top? >> you know, mike, it's a good question. i would argue that at this point, it would probably be better for investors to think more about maybe the second iteration of the trump trade. companies that would immediately benefit from a change in administration. so, engineering, construction, stocks, defense stocks, financials to the extent you ease some of the regulations. i would argue that next year, it will be much more nuanced. i think particularly corporate tax reform is where you'll see the nuances take place. 3.5 million words in the u.s. tax code. it's very complex. it's going to take a long time to change it. one of the ways we've been telling people to look at it is to largely, you know, favor the

companies that have high effective tax rates and favor less the companies that already have low effective tax rates. the giveback, obviously, on a lower statutory rate is that you're going to have to give up a lot of deductions. >> jason trennert, thank you for jumping on the line to talk about some of your calls as we stay glued to the dow. it is now under 30 points away from 20,000. jason trennert talking about goldman sachs adding 19 points alone. which stocks have been left out alone? >> land of misfit stocks, all those that have been left out in the cold. we'll start on the opposite end of the spectrum here. two sectors that have both hit record highs during this holiday shopping season. so a record high for the stock

market. record highs for these two sectors. but within these sectors there's been a bit of a churn and a bit of -- at least a bit of a separation between the good and the bad. first of all let's look at retail and consumer discretionary types of things. yes, we're near record highs. ralph lauren shares have fallen 6% year to date. nike, dow component. interestingly enough one of the best performing stocks in today's trand as we try to march to that 20,000 level. it's still down. signet jewelers down 24% year to date. perhaps not a great story about the consumer spending picture on mid size jewelry range and l brands down 28%. they have not participated in the rally. will they in the future?

delta is just about flat, given the market move today. it's still one of the under performers in industrials, a sector that's hit record highs. pittney bowes down 23% and stericycle down 36%. it's whether or not we can get these underperformers to start participating in the rally. nike has been the worst performing stock in the dow so far this year, one of two that have been negative year to date. coca cola is the other one. the land of misfit stocks, it's about whether some of these misfits end up helping things ahead. we'll see what happens. back over to you. >> i'm sure a lot of ceos are thrilled to be called misfit stocks. good morning. welcome to "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla.

kayla tausche, john forte. the watch continues. we've come within 13 points so far this morning. all hands are on deck. let's check in with bob on the floor once again. >> there's no news event, macro event, economic event. we have these two powerful forces we have been talking about the last several days. number one is the momentum. every trader knows the last two weeks of the year stocks tend to rise. about 70% of the time on the dow average. number one stock? i'm going to call it. goldman sachs why we're at the door now of 20,000. goldman sachs is the highest priced stock in the dow. it's a price weighted index. s&p is a market capitalize weighted index. slightly different. the bigger the price of the

stock, largeer the price, the more influence it has on the dow. goldman is the biggest price stock and has had an enormous move since the election. goldman sachs is -- goldman sachs is close to 22%, 23%. one stock is 22% to 23% of the big move we have seen. dow has been up close to 1700 points since then. enormous influence. this is what happens to what i call the politics of construction. it matters what goes into these indexes and how you construct them. big name like goldman, heavy price. moves the indexes. elsewhere the other major factor has been this powerful momentum we've been seeing. we just keep rotating into new sectors, old names, financial stocks are doing really well as well as technology, late bloomers going in. some of the old names like

consumer staples stocks holding back. if we could get pfizer, procter & gamble, johnson & johnson, we'll pass 20,000 very quickly. >> bob tasani joining us this morning. bob michael joins us along with david siebert, managing director and head of sales and trading. good morning to you both. >> good morning. >> david, earlier this morning, it was said this is so tantalizing you can almost hear guys on a buy desk say bid this up and get it over with. how likely is that? >> i know. it's frustrating as heck. a lot of fear in the market. so much fear is built in here. there's so many underperformers even though the market has gone parabolic. you've seen the s&p take off. a lot of funds are

underperforming. the fear is not to be involved but the fear is to buy at the top when things come crashing down, your profit is shot for the year. there's a lot of trepidation. i think you stick with the ones that are working. frankly the financials. we talked about it on the show a million times, on "fast money" as well. financials will continue to work. it's basically been ten years since they've come out of a difficult, difficult cycle. jp morgan. these are names that are going to work and will work long term. longer term, you can see these names double within the next several years. >> there are any number of analyst pieces and editorial write-ups, bob, that have said stocks are looking rich here. it's time for a pullback. if you haven't gotten into this rally, do you see any entry point ahead? >> probably not until the end of the year. very important factor bob could

have mentioned is that no one is going to take capital gains before 2017. in all likelihood we'll get some form of tax reform. wait a few days and hopefully at a lower taxable gains rate. >> you don't have to pay that bill till april 2018. >> you would have to pay estimated taxes. >> dafbd you seem to be pretty good about where these dow stocks are. >> yeah. >> that 20,000 mark aside, if you're looking to get into the market now, which is where a lot of people will be if this headline does surface this week. which stocks in particular would you pick? >> look, i say this like -- i expect that we're going to see a little bit of a correction or pullback, if you will, let's say in the financials. do i expect some stocks to pull

back? goldman sachs, jp morgan? no question about it. ultimately i do believe you'll see this momentum continue as long as earnings can keep pace with expectationors at least until second half of next year i think you'll have to make sure that's all in line with expectations. i think we've got momentum that could last for a very significant point, period of time. love the regional banks. i love the financials, big, big banks in particular. for a value trade, i think you could start to look at some of the larger and mid cap bio tech names and, i tell you, i like federal express earn iings tonit and i also like u.p.s. as well. >> bob, the bond market is really where this jail break kind of started after the election, right? that was really the log jam, rates were capped. that's changed in tone, obviously.

and also there's a story, this flirtation, lot of money flowing out of fixed income into equities. that's sort of happened on a week-to-week basis. is it a concern about how bonds trade? >> my view is that we haven't seen the great rotation yet. we're in the very early stages and it's likely to happen in a big way in the coming years. right now what we're seeing is a lot of entrenchment. people have been buying bonds for the last 30 years. and they're reluctant to give them up. when investors realize that the fed belongs at 2% or 3%. the treasury should hit 3.5%, you're going to see that rotation out.

i don't remember a time when it's been more lean and efficient. that's why we're in investor and corporate debt. >> which kind of goes against this theme of corporate america is overly burdened and needs all the these. >> those are accounting treatments we're talking about. >> sure. >> what have companies done? they've taken out cost and reduced head count. if those accounting treatments start to fade and you get this pool of policy stimulus, a lot of that is just going to flow to the bottom line. >> dasvid with we had a discussion about expectations for s&p earnings. mike called it a hockey stick. guesses all over the place. would you expect guidance in

january when we get earnings, for them to have any better clue than we have? >> i do think it's going to be a little bit more forward than that. so, that's my point exactly. we need to make sure that earnings or at least earnings guidance are keeping up with expectations. more to the after q2. q2 is probably the timeframe i'm looking to. at that point in time we'll have a lot more clarity. that's when you can really make a decision whether or not we're too long in the tooth. i think the stocks can work through that period. again, some consolidation here and there. i do believe q2 could be the real linchpin as far as direction of the tape much longer term. >> it will be an interesting few weeks in the short term, too. bop, david, thank you. countdown to 20,000 will continue. there's a denture adhesive that holds strong until evening.

fixodent plus adhesives. just one application gives you superior hold even at the end of the day fixodent. strong more like natural teeth. like cologne.y things you don't want in industrial strength- morning! but there's one thing you do. (gags) it's called predix from ge. the cloud-based development platform that's industrial-strength strength!

we are keeping a close eye on the market this is morning. banks largely left out of the rally for years have been on a tear in recent weeks, trying to cancel out that fact. wilfred frost is back to headquarters with a bank rally. wil? >> absolutely, kayla. the dow has risen from the last moment it was at 10k, october 2009 and now closes in to 20k.

taking a look at what's taken it from 10 to 20. they've underperformed the rest of the market for almost the entire postfinancial crisis period with some stocks significantly lagging, record low interest rates and tough regulation. late 2011 marked the trough, as banks were affected by the peak of the eurozone crisis. banks increased steadily. significantly less quickly to other sectors. in part due to a slue of regulatory hurdles. as the year turned from 2015 to 2016, just having enjoyed a boost in nearly a decade, share prices sold off due to fears of credit quality in the energy sector as well as various international concerns which hit the sector again in june this year in the face of the uk's historic brexit vote. over half of the performance

from october 2009 to today, 10k to 20k, if we hit it, have come from after donald trump's victory. the result being that banks have transitioned to be being market leaders as 20k is within striking distance, having been a laggard for most of the ride since 10k. guys? >> wilfred frost, thank you. larry blaser, mayflower adviser joins us. sean, if we hit 20,000, do you think it will be discounted because of the fact that there's not that much volume behind it? >> no, not at all. 20,000 is a symbolic number in a lot of ways. it certainly shows that people with this expectation about the economy is improving, credit quality is strong. i really think people are trying to put money to work here. it won't matter if there's little volume this week.

>> you generally think, larry, a company's entrance to the dow is a curse of sorts. i'm thinking about the way the index has changed over the years in 2012, kraft replaced by united health in 2013, alcoa were replaced by goldman, nike and visa. do you think that adage still holds true? >> i think it does. six to 12 months ago, no one wanted to touch financials with a ten-foot pole. and how the world has changed. tis the season to believe. any other year it just might be a santa claus rally we're seeing but this year is different. if you're a believer, ronald reagan redux area and recognize the fact that what's in the dow and how that's composed rather than chase those big cap names that may be artificially boosting the market in year end.

lots of opportunity to avoid the trump train getting tested in january which might be the trump reflux selloff in the coming year. >> one of the remarkable things to me is that a headline risk has just bounced off the china drone controversy, russian ambassador. at what point would we need to worry about headline risks coming back in the equation? is that after 20k, after congress goes back into session? what do you think? >> i think when congress goes back into session and all of a sudden you start understanding what's going to happen, what kind of fiscal packages will be created. what kind of tax reform there is. the concern has to be that interest rates are -- that could be a concern. that's going to hurt multiples at some point in time. >> mike, you were making the point that this has been such a

dow centric rally. it peaked last week and has been trading sideways since then. what do you make of that? >> i think it's okay right now because it's a period of outperformance. it's basically the dow versus the s&p and the nasdaq had been the standout, the initial rush off the lows. what i find interesting today, yes, we're talking about the dow and the fact that it's being driven by a couple of stocks. s&p, new york composite, the dow all up about .4% today. it has been the outperformer because of the mix of sectors. >> walk us through your calculation of how much each stock in the 30 needs to rise. >> it's a little under 15 cents per stock. the overall index to give you $4 or $4.50 worth of collective upside based on the point calculation of how the dow works.

basically 6.8 dow points for every dollar of increase. >> everyone get your change out. >> we could pool, do an office pool. >> shawn matthews, larry glazer, thanks to both of you. we'll see if we get to 20k. top gainers on the dow, caterpillar, nike, goldman sachs. is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.

if you're just joining us this morning, dow came within 13 points of that 20k level and right now continues to toy with us. just about 28 points away. let's get to bob tasani with some special guests. bob? >> we're talking to t.j. anderson, one of the guys i speak to on a regular basis. tim, no catalysts today and

couple of powerful forces moving the markets. are we going to hit 20,000 today? >> certainly going to set us up for that. maybe push through in the last hour. it feels like the market has been going through a lot of that resistance. it's been built up, just below the 20,000 level for the last three or four days and today could be the day. >> we've been talking about the fact that the market does not sell off. we topped out a bit last wednesday. instead of selling off people say, okay, i'm out of here. people decided to rotate into sectors that hadn't had the big moves. you sell financials for a couple days, buy consumer staples. next thing you buy utilities. giant rotation is keeping the market up. can that continue? >> it can and it feels like the big monster institutions want to end the year with as close to zero cash as possible on their books, which makes sense. market is going to close at a high. they want to show they're fully

invested and they obviously feel good about at least the first half of next year. >> we've been talking about the debate between -- instead of bulls versus bears, pragmatists versus optimists. they say wait a minute you've been pushing the market up high. we know you're hoping tax cuts and stimulus will make a big difference. we don't have the evidence. optimists are saying stop worrying so much. it's going to be good. relax. what camp are you in? >> you haven't heard this term for 20 years maybe but it's a classic multiple expansion rally. we're not rallying on existing earnings or a definitive improvement in the economy yet. but the expectations that we're going to see that in 2017 and the end of this six quarters of declining revenues and profits for the s&p 500. that's why multiples are going up, in expectation.

prices and earnings will go up enough later to where we won't get too expensive. >> financials have been the market leader since november. we've seen technology a little bit. any sectors you like going into the new year? >> really, i think that energy has a chance to have some really good performance, particularly in the refiners and in those stocks that have fracking operations and other businesses that can exist profitably with oil in the mid 50s. >> 20,000, may have it. seasonal factors last two weeks of the year up and powerful momentum since the election. guys, back to you. >> we will speak again soon. bob tasani on the floor. not just the dow in record territory. germany, spain, ftse and france, most of them at their highs for 2016. we'll get the european close in

2:30. your path to retirement may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence. (smash!) like an administrativeyou don't assistant.dustrial strength- your 3 o'clock is here. but there's one thing you do. it's called predix from ge. the cloud-based development platform that's industrial-strength strength!

good morning, everyone. i'm sue herrera. the man accused of setting off bombs in new york and new jersey earlier this year pleads not guilty. michigan's attorney general charging two former state emergency managers with multiple

20-year felonies for their failure to protect the citizens of flint from contaminated water. two executives also facing charges. red cross says ten more buses have arrived at aleppo to evacuate residents in eastern aleppo. new study from the pew research center says a whopping 79% of americans are shopping online. nearly half the public has bought something online using their mobile phone or another device. 18% made purchases by following a link on social media. that's the news update this hour. back downtown to you, carl. >> thank you so much, sue. sue herrera at hq. markets closed in uk and across europe. let's get to seema at hq. >> stocks in europe also moving

higher today, shrugging off concerns about the most recent geopolitical events taking place across the continent. take a look at the performance in europe, very notable as the nation has suffered two major political shocks, brexit and the italian referendum two weeks ago. david cameron of the uk and mateo renzi of italy. index closing in on its highest level of the year. 13% below its all-time high. some argue the european central bank's program continues to boost confidence plus the improvement in europe's fundamental picture, specifically the rebound we've seen in inflation. let's take a look at the ftse 100, uk stock market since the brexit, posting a double-digit gain due in part to the weakness we see in the pound, ftse up nearly 13%. german dax with an even better performance as they gear up for

their election next year. angela merkel running there. 104, now at 103 against the u.s. dollar, another boom for those european nationals that sell their products overseas. political backdrop may be daunting. if the economic indicators continue to show signs of resilience, europe could be in for some gains in 2017. back to you. >> thank you, seema. accelerated toward a record high, one sector has been stuck in low gear. let's bring in phil lebeau. >> i like that pun right there, john. we're talking about the automakers. this is a sector back in 2009 when the dow was first starting to move, you might have thought maybe these guys could get some juice as auto sales improve.

gm, ford, issues with the ignition switch and sector that tends to move early in the auto cycle not relative to the stock investment cycle but the auto cycle. look at auto sales, annual auto sales going back to 2011, that's when you start to see the acceleration auto sales. back in '11 and '12, since then people tend not to be invested in auto stocks since the end of the cycle. one exception in terms of which automakers have performed or outperformed, dow jones industrial average take a look at shares of tesla, june of 2010. kind of meandered around. i remember it was $20 with the stock price and, boom, then it

took off. now it's up 983% since it went public in 2010. jim cramer gets asked this question all the time. it's hard to explain but the people invested in it, they love it whether or not they understand everything involved. that's the one automaker stock that's really outperformed the market since 2000. >> you cannot overstate how far we have come, phil, since 2009. phil lebeau, thanks to you. we are still counting up to 20,000, the dow hitting all-time highs earlier today. peter costa, kenny. we see you all the time on o'neill securities. a sentence i never thought i would say a few years ago, we are will being led to 20,000 by goldman sachs. how did we get here? >> you want to handle that one? >> the financials are just

having a magnificent day today. i think that's part of the reason where we are right now. >> the financials we've been having, a magnificent month ever since the election and speculation. >> it's been more than that. they've been rallying more than three months now. >> right. but it's interesting. we got so close. my sense is today, yes, it's going to happen. i don't think it's going to happen today because i don't feel it. right? every opportunity when we hit 19,9. >> ba-humbug, kenny. >> it's continuing to build that base. when it goes through it wants to go through with real force. >> nike earnings, do you think that could propel the index further? >> clearly depends on what they say, what their earnings are is whether it will propel it or not. concerns over nike, china policy, trade policy with trump. and so what's the guidance going to be in nike might give you

more of an indication of whether it's going to help. >> it. >> first time we approached 20,000 it teased you in '99 for a long time. you eventually got there. >> that's right. >> adding 15% eventually to the top of the market. even if we're not talking about a round number like 20,000, even if we're not talking about new administration, last three years, strong finish in december, january was rough. cold water right away. are we looking at something like that again? >> absolutely a strong finish in december because speculation about all the taxes. anyone who wants to sell is not selling in the next eight days because they're anticipating less taxes in the new year i do think there will be a strong finish i do think we'll break dow 20,000. i just toent think it's it today. >> the irony is that these guys will go down under president obama. >> right. >> basically, peter, just borrowing from 2017 gains and gains to be backed into what president-elect trump actually

doe does. >> one of the things that i would like to tell you or like to say is that i think next year a lot of it will be based on earnings. first quarter or fourth quarter earnings. >> prices right now, peas are way off the charts. markets are going to sell off. there's a tax cut in the offing, we probably will not see that tax cut until the end of 2017. >> because it has to be enacted. it has to be legislated upon, implemented. it will take until the end of the year. >> right. will it be retroactive? >> we've seen tax cuts both ways. they started jn 1st following year. >> do we prefer a market like that, that we have to care about the timing versus what's the fed going to do? to me it's a lot of the same kind of --

>> people, quite honestly, are tired of the fed. made it clear at least twice, maybe three times in 2017 and people are less concerned about that. i think they're much more concerned. history will credit this rally to obama versus the kind of expectation of what trump is going to do. >> we still have a lot to learn. anything on the calendar this week that you think could be material to where stocks go? >> there's a lot of ecodata the next three days. gdp is coming out, existing home sales is coming out. there's a lot of data. next eight days that data is not going to mean anything to make a decision now. i think they've already prepared for that data going into 2017. >> everyone is well placed for what's coming out. the point is at the end of the year you always have that rally. it's always a lot of window dressing, people coming back to the table after they miss this

move, which is a lot of the rally we've seen. >> i think people are getting a little ahead of themselves. once you see the earnings and these earnings do not meet the expectations of where the stocks are trading. you're going to see a selloff. >> we're now about 60 points away. >> my gut. >> peter costa, thanks to you both. >> thanks, kayla. just which stocks have been the big winners and losers since 10,000? first, rick santelli, what are you watching? >> i'm on 20,000 watch as well. what we need to discuss is all this intrigue with 20,000 under the t. of course, t standing for trump. big number today? 19,917. talk about it all after the break.

got to watch, carl, the fact that technology is not performing today, weighing on the dow with apple just higher by a quarter percent. that's the big one here we're going to watch as we count down to 20,000. >> we talked to cash in the 9:00 am hour and asked is there any seasonality to the intra- day? he said i think this is going to happen in the next 15 minutes or late afternoon push. >> on power lunch we're always watching the 2:00 hour. that's when a lot of crazy things seem to be happening in terms of the algorithm. >> the most important hour. we all say that, don't we? 3:00 is the important hour. >> melissa, see you in a little bit. melissa lee, doing the half today. john? >> the dow is hanging the

mistletoe over 20,000. we'll see if it actually happens for a look at the the biggest stock winners and losers since march 1999 when the dow first hit 10,000. dom? >> a lot of interesting stuff since 1999 for sure. dow looks completely different basically. lot more industrials compared to now. back to the upside it hasn't looked back since is actually october of 2009. so we're going to take a look at that and the current dow components. current dow components and just how well they've done since that 2009 mark. united health care, a 55% gain. no slouch in terms of leaders in returns among current dow members. home depot, up almost 4 hundred% at this point. visa up 329% and apple up 317%. many of these stocks weren't part of the dow in 2009 or 1999.

however they are driving stuff today. no laggards or losers. but ibm, big blue only up 31% since that 2009 mark. exxonmobil up 26%. lot of oil price volatility, energy stock volatility contributing to that cisco systems, 26% of the upside and goldman sachs up 25%. if you take a look at the overall picture since, guys, some interesting moves with how these guys have done in that timeframe. now you go back, at&t, bank of america, alcoa, hp, kraft were all part of the dow. no longer there. let's take a look at these names and figure out if the new dow is indicative of the new economy and industrial environment as opposed to the old guys. back to you. >> dominic chu at hq. let's get over to rick and and check on the santelli exchange. rick? >> thank you, carl.

20,000 in front of what is or could be an implementation issue of the reasons many are purchasing stocks, pushing us to these levels. retro activity, policy changes, implementations of things like tax policy. we don't know exactly how tough they will be to push through. but we do know one thing. they're going to be less tough than many of the attempts in the previous 12 years or so, considering the landscape of congress. but even more important and more to the point, consider the time this is all happening. we have a fed embarking on the highest in ten years, policy shift. yet here goes the dow testing. big number i reference was 19,917.

no secret you probably guessed it, that was yesterday's high. so if we look at this purely from a technical vantage point, especially considering it isn't necessarily most high volume time of the year. maybe even thin in certain markets and many investors may be forced to jump into this parade just because they don't want to be left behind. but all that is actually as important. by the way, that was yesterday's high, that level. and any close above yesterday's high in the dow is going to be bullish. what is the most bullish setup? i'm always a person who talks about the close. and if we get a close above 20,000 the same day we get an intra- day penetration of 20,000, of course, i think that would be extremely bullish. it goes without saying should that occur, obviously, that outside day close above yesterday's high by the very nature of 20,000, above 19,917. if it doesn't happen today the amount of time that passes between a violation of a key technical level and when it settles above that level is very

important. the shorter the time, the most bullish. you carry it to the next priority and that is how quickly a weekly and monthly close follow it up. in this case, we're going to get maybe one of the most important benchmarks. why are all these important? think about how markets work. and think about things like margin. think about what happens to all those who have positions that get hurt with a close above 20,000. the close is the money trade. that's where everything is marked to the market. that's where margins are predicated and where many who want to be long but aren't will most likely be forced to chase the market. carl, back to you. >> some good numbers to keep in mind, rick. thank you very much. rick santelli. forget xerox, ibm and cisco. why some investors are keeping an eye on new tech as we inch closer to 20,000. there are many things you don't want in industrial strength- like coffee.

but there's one thing you do. you guys okay?! it's called predix from ge. the cloud-based development platform that's industrial-strength strength!

>> the dow takes aim at 20 k ho has old tech faired versus new tech? our deirdre bow says that one market in san francisco looking at those numbers. hey, deirdre. >> hey, carl. well, it's really been a tale of two tech stories over the last 10,000 point gains for the dow. gray chips versus fangs. the older tech companies versus their younger brethren. facebook and alphabet, formerly

goog google. it's pretty well known that the high-flying fangs have been outperforming their peers over the last few years, but to the extent which it's been outperforming them and the broader market since the dow crossed 10k is eye-popping. since october 14, 2009, the fang basket has returned more than 870%. that same period the basket of grey chip tech companies has returned just under 130%. the race hasn't even been close. the best performing fang has been the end. netflix. returning, go et this, more than 1,700%. it's followed up by amazon. up 680% since the dow passed 10,000. the legacy lagards that have pulled down that grey chip basket, then booep benazir objection, cisco, and ibm, and it's been 150% or less since october 14th, 2009. some grey chips have proven more agile than others, pleasing investors along the way, like microsoft, which has made a big bet on its cloud business and returned nearly 170%.

outlook has been a dow leader returning more than 350%. one of the biggest winners, though, may surprise you. it's not a fang. it's texas instruments. a through and through grey chip. it has returned 240% during this period. they've run up a long way. their p.e. ratios reflect that. carl. >> i'll take it from there. thanks. when we come back, the dow coming off session highs. it's about 65 points away from 20,000. squawk alley will be right back.

>> it's been a long morning. futures were positive in the premarket. obviously in the 9:00 a.m. got pretty close. within 13 points of 20k. some tradeers have suggested in this morning coverage that investors are being cautious. about 58 points from 20k. peter tuckman, one of the kwl known traders here on the floor. he has left us with this for the morning. dow almost 10k as these hats -- who knows? we may need this for a while wra

wrash. >> it really did tease you for a while. what's interesting, get there or not and presumably at some point you can get there. dow is up 2,500 points. almost exactly year-to-date. in addition to hitting this 20,000 mark, you are talking about a close to a 15% price return. not including dividends. i don't think a lot of people really thought you had the -- the market had it in it at least in january and february. clearly i think that does leave you with the idea we've come kind of a long way, and do you have to have a little bit of payback come january. we've had three bad januarys in a row, and i think that's going to at least be in the back of people's minds. >> you know, it hasn't helped so far, at least today, tech. intel is doing the best of the tech since behind home depot as far as the game. it has less than a percent. you have to go pretty far back to find the rest. apple is barely in the green thus far. ibm, cisco, microsoft all in the red. >> apple came within $1 of 52-week high. something we hadn't seen in a while. caterpillar, once again the top performing dow component.

your point about microsoft yesterday too was interesting. $30 since nodella took over. all-time high today. >> i know people who work at microsoft who would have been happy to see 35. it was in the mid 20s for so long during that period, but, i mean, put the cloud guy in charge. plurks a whole different tone. certainly different morale happening at microsoft right now. in the mid 60s, wow. who would have thunk it? >> it shows thaw the kind of tech that's working at the moment anyway is not, you know, kind of old hardware plus app. >> we'll see how much of a bite they're taking out of fedex when fedex reports after the bell. fedex and nike, two names that will be reporting after the close. a little bit of a busy earnings day. you had general mills missing expectations this morning. really weak quarter across the board. i wonder what fedex will say about this quarter in particular. >> fedex in particular in terms of economic, though, whether that's the one you want to watch. nike is more of a maybe. a turnaround stock at best.

yeah. >> certainly we've been calling it the laggard of the dow for a while, but striekingly so. i don't think it can afford to take your eye off the screen. dow up 65. let's get over to melissa lee and the half. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm in today for scott wapner. of course, closing in on dow 20,000. what the milestone means for your money and for investor sentiment. with us for the hour joe terra nova, jim leventhal, stephanie link, and john najarian. also with us from the nyse senior markets commentator mike santoli. i am tired of people saying dow 20k does not matter. >> it's down 20 thou. not dow 20k. 20 thou because it rhymes with dow. dow 20 thou. >> all right. >> whatever you want to call it. whatever you want to call it. >> okay.