headquarters out west and 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." our top story this morning once again, dow 20k farther away this morning as we're back to 19,950. joining us to talk about the rally at large, valuation and sentiment, robert shiller is the professor of economics at yale university. robert, great to see you again.

good morning. >> hi, carl. >> you were asked the other day by "the washington post" about your cape ratio. 27,900 may be on the expensive side but the expense of a trump white house is difficult to measure. can you explain that? >> i'm not of the efficient markets school of thought. i think america's behavior depends on psychology. the trump victory reflects an intense psychological excitement. look at his rallies. and that could apparently has influenced the stock market. >> of course that might feed into housing as well and inflation paying closer attention now to mortgage applications and existing homes today. the best since '07. at what point do you think perhaps that psychology starts to look at part of the glass that's half empty?

>> the problem is trump is a genius at motivating a certain big element of our population. i don't know that he or anyone can control the sentiments. now, you mention housing. that's a good example. demand for housing is -- trump is a real estate man, right? he talks about living big. living large. i can imagine that this will boost housing demand as well. among at least those who are excited by trump and it's not everybody. >> what you're saying sounds to me potentially like a big red flag. you say about this trump rally once people start to believe it's a new era it could go on for a while even if it's unfounded. reminded of running off the cliff and eventually falling, is that especially a danger here? >> i like that example. it could be like 1920s.

coolidge prosperity. it went for a while and ended badly. went for a number of years in the roaring '20s. you know, there's a difference though between calvin coolidge and donald trump if you haven't noticed. trump is way more controversial. way more. and what's also being brought up here is a conflictual atmosphere. i don't think -- the bull market may come to an end sooner. >> you're a market historian and have written about all of the milestones that the dow has hit but it's easy to forget just this year in february we hit 15,500. i mean, what do you make of the length of the dow has traveled in just that short period of time? >> okay. to me it's psychology of some sort or another. i think trump is part of it.

he just sets an example. we used to be more into modest living and now people are thinking doesn't work. you know? you have to live big. big league. and you're on your way. and i think that's part of it. we don't understand human psychology well enough to explain it with any academic rigor. it seems like that's a factor. >> i'm looking back at your cape ratio. we've gotten into the 40s before? >> mid 40s in the early 2000s. that was alarming. something was wrong then. >> so the point -- the distance between where we are now and then, when do your eyebrows start to go up? >> they've already started to go up. right now i would still keep a

good part of the portfolio in the market. i wouldn't go plunging because it is high and it might go down. the thing is we just don't know. even at 28, the cape ratio is not so super high. in the past it has gone up from this level before. >> so, robert, a lot of mom and pop investors aren't actually investing. not in the market especially over the past seven or eight years since we took that dive and are probably thinking about maybe getting back in at this point. so probably a good safe question is do we have a canary in the coal mine. if things are going to turn south, is there a particular area that we should look at for a warning sign? >> i feel funny urging about someone who hasn't been in the market to come in now. first of all, there's a thought that this dow 20,000 is a resistance level, and we're just going to be stuck at it for a

long time. that's another thing we've seen before in history. and secondly, there is a real chance of a correction. i just don't know. you know, i feel funny about advising someone to come in right now. only a little bit i would say. not massively. >> not even necessarily talking about advising someone to come in right now. even if you're already in, is there a particular segment of the market that you expect might be the first to show signs of trouble in a market like this? >> what sectors to stay out of? i have to think about that. technology had high cape ratios but it's relatively low compared to its own previous highs. the important thing is that value investing is an important thing to do at all times.

a strategy as close to proven as any and a sense behind it that there are fads and fashions in markets pushing things to be overpriced and some things to be underpriced. a value index would be a good investment avoiding the high fliers. >> as it pertains to 20k, obviously we devoted a lot of attention to the prospect of it over the past couple weeks. you talk about it being potential resistance. if and when we get that number it will be all over websites for days. from a psychology standpoint, is it truly resistance or is it a demarcation line that says to people the market is going higher. maybe you should think about getting in? >> the resistance level reflects a complex psychology. you might think that once it passes the level it would soar

after that. but history doesn't suggest that. the first time that the dow passed 1,000 was in 1972. but it didn't increase above 1,100 until over a decade later. 1983. so it's not as if once you break a barrier you just go sailing. in fact, it may be that you think that this is it. we'll stay right here. >> same dynamics with 10k. we cracked it. flirted with it for a while. went back and forth and we know what happened before we were able to regain it in '09. >> right. breaking 10k was a short run, good thing. it went right up after that in 1999. it didn't stay up as we well know. didn't go up a lot higher. >> robert, we appreciate your time obviously today. increasingly looks like it might not be the day as we run out of market space to get there.

you never know what the afternoon could bring. good to talk to you again. happy holidays. >> same to you. >> robert shiller. >> we are getting a news alert out of our nation's capital on goldman sachs. >> goldman sachs is ordered to pay a $120 million penalty for what they call attempted manipulation of and false reporting of u.s. dollar isda fixed benchmark swap rates. what the cftc is saying is that goldman's unlawful conduct here involved multiple traders including the head of goldman's interest rate products trading group in the united states according to the cftc order here. in this press release just put out a few minutes ago, there's details here that goldman sachs will find embarrassing. according to the press release, they say cftc captured e-mails and audio recordings of goldman sachs traders stating manipulative goals in plain language such as directing swap broker to "spend what you need

but make sure we get the print." also saying that among themselves, goldman traders described the trades as being based on the jacked price as opposed to fair price in that benchmark market, guys. back over to you. >> thank you very much. when we come back as we have said already, the dow still within reach of 20k. the question is whether we get there in the next hour or whether we get there at all. you have to stay tuned to find out. later the twitter brain drain continues. details on more executive departures when "squawk alley" comes back.

>> investors will have to wait longer for the dow to get closer to that 20,000 point. welcome to both of you. michael, i'll start with you.

because every time you hear so much bullish sentiment, it's usually good to be skeptical. at the same time who wants to short this market going into inauguration? >> exactly. i think right now you have a few factors that are going keep this market lifting higher into year end and early january. the first is performance based. as you suggested, there is a higher bullish sentiment right now but it never -- this whole year a lot of investors have been behind the market. they need to -- the s&p has a benchmark or whatever u.s. equities is their benchmark and then you have momentum guys piling on top of that. another factor is inflows. inflows into equities have been very strong. that's probably going to continue into early january. >> you don't think all of the money that was going to rotate out of the bond market into the equity market has already happened? has already made that transition? >> some of the fast money has. i think some of the slower money simply takes time. a dip will get bought here. having said all that, as we get

into early and mid january, i do think there's a sell the inauguration event and it will be an interesting next few months after that. >> charles, you know, it is a low volume week although we have been within 13 points of dow 20,000. yet we've heard people say it's hard to imagine where the buying, that big burst of buying would come from in this market to actually get us to that point. do you see it coming from anywhere? >> absolutely. i think the average american is underinvested in stocks. the average endowment, the average pension plan has moved into ldi and bond funds. pension plans own less stocks today than they have any time in the last 60 years. there are huge places, which are underinvested in common stocks. university endowments moved money into hedge funds and private equity and under invested in stocks. the beauty of 20,000 is it

reminds us how good of an investment public stocks have been. since 1980 when ronald reagan became president and the dow was less than 1,000, your money would be up 20 fold since then. equities have been a wonderful place to invest over the long run. that's a great point. there's sell on news and then policy complications that we are no doubt going to see as this sausage has to actually get made and taxes are not easy. >> nothing is easy. regulation is relatively easy but even that is complicated so when you step back for a second there's a lot of pluses and minuses that come with a trump agenda as i parse through what earnings are likely to happen. you have higher interest costs of companies burdened with and higher dollar and those will offset each other.

i think my basic prediction is the market will probably go higher next year but approximate will come have higher volatility. the ratio has been so great under these monetary stimulus defined market is going to be -- it's a very different game going forward. >> charles, you're bullish. i mean, playing devil's advocate against your own argument as i assume you do to test it, what's the worst case scenario for early next year that derails what we see in terms of this rally? >> obviously it would be the black swan event that by definition sis unpredictable. the risk of international events that russian tanks moving into kiev, china attacking u.s. warship. there are things that could happen around the world that would clearly be bad and would make the market shaky and hit the areas that have done the best. financials would not react well to something like that. >> charles, you mentioned

financials. and sectors have been in close focus during this rally because it seemed like there really hasn't been a rotation into the market sort of as a net effect. it's moving money around between sectors. what sectors would you be in right now given that fact of the market right now? >> i'm glad you brought that up. people talk about the market. it's been very different reaction. so you have to just remember that the overpriced stocks were the safe stocks. bond substitutes. consumer staples trading at 24 times earnings. high yielding stocks. what was very cheap were the more cyclical stocks. the financials, the banks, the industrials. that has reversed and they're now much closer in terms of valuation. it is not true that everything has moved the same. we have gone from bond substitute stocks being still a little bit expensive but the more cyclicals have come up to

closer to fair value. >> is there a risk, michael, that let's say you're in the financials and tomorrow donald trump tweets that he met with a couple people on the financial services committee in the house and decides he's going to keep dodd/frank intact because he likes it. >> no question political risk has taken a step function higher. not just in europe but also in the u.s. i think you have to really look at trump benefits or negatives in terms of political risk going forward. it's not necessarily going to be an easier market to trade just because it's more a fiscally defined stimulus package and less monetary. trading political noise and one of the metrics i'll be watching closely is really trump approval ratings because if they are high and stay high, that means he can get his agenda done quickly. if they weakened, i think both sides, both dems and republicans will make a meal out of that and push back. >> his approval has done well since the election. but there's still widespread

belief that house republicans are afraid to counter him on any move. >> because approval ratings are high. let's say they go lower. that's where it will be very interesting. does he get a fiscal spending package through, which is really contrary to the spirit of many hardcore republicans. >> congress doesn't necessarily have the highest approval ratings either though. >> correct. correct. >> which is why they can't afford to lose at his hand. >> exactly. exactly. i think trump's approval ratings might be very volatile. i think that's going to be one of the metrics i'll be watching is understanding how that happens. trump getting stuff done in 100 days sounds great. reality is going to be as you were suggesting, it's going to be tedious and all that. the other comment i would make is it's been around monetary stimulus. that can be administered by the fed and other rates. the fiscal stimulus plan is

administered in a negotiated, you know, over several quarters, months, years, and that's very different. >> we keep talking about january 20th, which is the date of inauguration as sort of when all of this policy will come to fruition. congress gets sworn in on january 3rd. do you think they'll put pen on paper before the president gets sworn in? >> i don't think you'll see a lot between that date and inauguration day. i think you're going to see a lot relatively soon thereafter. the good news is there's going to be an end to some bad news. so you just started this segment by talking about a new $100 million fine for goldman sachs. yesterday there were the new anti-drilling regulations about offshore drilling. a lot of that bad headline risk is going to be less starting next year. that absence of a negative is going to be significant. >> thanks to both of you. >> let's send it over do

dominique for a quick market flash. >> you were talking about undervalued parts of the market. one of the big laggers with markets lower, s&p 500 health care sector off by half of a percent. biotech names weigh on the entire sector. now the sector is the year's worst performer down more than 4%. missing this rally the only negative sector year-to-date on the s&p. back over to you. >> all right. thank you. and still to come, we're breaking out the 2017 playbook finding new ways to make money in the new year. coming up, social media and a brain drain continuing at twitter. the latest executives calling it quits and of course dow 20,000 within reach kind of. art cashin is coming up to weigh in. more "squawk alley" in just a moment. generosity is its own form of power.

you can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood?

i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. as 2016 draws to a close, cnbc is breaking out the 2017 playbook looking at ways you can make money in the coming year. this hour we're focused on social media. for that we turn to cnbcbs glor. >> here are three predictions for the next wave of social in 2017. first, not only will snap have the biggest ipo since facebook,

snapchat will make it easier for groups. the parent company could introduce hardware and apps. twitter, will find a buyer as they struggle to increase their core user base and becomes a platform for media such as streaming nfl games. it will sell to a tech giant like microsoft or google. third, look for facebook to implement more artificial intelligence across all of its apps. customer service will be offered on messenger and new voice interfaces to talk. of those three social giants, twitter is the one most in turmoil. the slew of top level executive

departures continue. twitter's chief technology officer and its vp of product both announced that they are leaving this company. this is on the heels of chief operating officer leaving last month and departure of twitter's spv of product, engineer, vp of global media and vp of human resources among others this year. yesterday twitter said it's taking steps to streamline and flatten the organization by elevating engineering and product and design function with all reporting to jack dorsey. this certainly puts more pressure on dorsey not only to manage all of those divisions directly but also to fill a growing number of holes in the organization as the company struggles to jump-start its user growth and focus on video. guys, back over to you. >> and of course julia, those are on days he was working at

twitter and not at square and i'm sure in '17 people will ask how long he can keep that up. >> i hear he no plans to leave twitter but he's running two publicly traded companies. one of which is under a lot of pressure. you can imagine the challenges of hiring engineers to twitter right now. >> julia, it's a stunning number of executives that we just saw up there on the wall. you could probably start a pretty amazing company if you could just get people who are leaving the door at twitter. what's the buzz around social media circles around that specifically? they all say nice things on the way out the door, but they're out the door. >> they all say nice things on the way out the door. they also have landed at very impressive companies. adam has not announced where he's going yet. if you look at where so many different people have gone, they've gone to other top silicon valley companies. i think people are saying a lot

of folks at twitter are really just burnt out. a lot of them have been there for five or six years and they're just done working so hard and feeling frustrated either by the lack of user growth or by the fact that maybe they're not seeing the changes that they want to see implemented done soon enough. so if you look at someone like adam bain, his departure was the biggest of all of these. we'll see where he lands. jack dorsey has been running the company for over a year now. we'll see what kinds of new people he brings in. i think people are burnt out at twitter right now. >> it's also compensation season and twitter has been paying these executives handsomely in stock but the stock is down 22% this year. i'm wondering if the company has any plans to consider maybe just paying these executives in cash to get them to stick around because obviously paying them in stock isn't paying off. >> certainly. i mean, i think if you look at

some of these departures, people brought in as part of acquisiti acquisitions, they are leaving because commitment to the company is over. they're not obligated to say. it's hard to compete for new talent here in silicon valley when you have the promise of a massive pay out to their employees. i think twitter will have to shift either more towards paying in cash or cash bonuses or whatever it is in order to retain and attract top talent in this very competitive hiring marketplace. >> twitter shares below the 200 day for the first time since early november. julia, thanks so much. julia boorstin talking twitter and social media at large. as we've been talking, europe is closing mostly in the red. let's get over to seema mody. >> european stocks pulling back from highs we saw yesterday with financials among today's biggest losers. let's talk about the italian lender now falling to an all-time low earlier this session as you can see in this chart right here.

here's an update. struggling italian lender estimating it will run out of liquidity in four months and not 11 months as bank previously thought. meantime, italy's parliament approved a government request for a 20 billion euro rescue loan to prop up the troubling banking sector. we have seen shares down 12% in today's trade. spanish banks in the red. eu's top court ruling against them in a dispute over variable rate mortgages. the court deciding that spanish borrowers are entitled to be fully reimbursed for excess interest payments for such mortgages. you can see names trading in negative territory. as we round out the year, wall street and many strategists are putting out their forecasts for 2017. and the currency forecast for 2017, the euro not only trading in parity with the dollar next year but going to 99 cents in

the second quarter of 2017. also sees the euro hitting 95 cents against the dollar by the end of 2017. analysts say it's a confluence of factors. trump fiscal spending and the political risk rising in the eurozone also adding to the pressure of the euro. that's something to watch as we head into the new year. >> all right. thanks so much. when we come back, hovering below 20,000. ubs director of floor operations is going to give us his market outlook next. hear what he thinks will take us past that important psychological mark. more "squawk alley" in just a moment. is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments

and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.

good morning, everyone. i'm sue herrera. berlin's christmas marketplace reopening this morning two days after a truck attack that killed 12 and injured 48 more. there was no advisable increase security measures and a vendor at the market site said she was surprised by the high number of visitors immediately after the attack. a syrian girl whose tet from eastern aleppo captured the world's attention turkish president erdogan. they were evacuated to safety on monday. the charlotte city council voting to repeal its anti-discrimination law in an emergency meeting this morning the council voted 7-2 to repeal

hb2. the so-called bathroom bill. state legislators are expected to repeal the statewide law later today. 30,000 light used as a trav system with infant carriers. a gap in the folding side hinge can pinch a care giver's hand during unfolding. you're up to date. back downtown to"squawk alley." >> for more on the markets, let's bring in art cashin joining us here at post 9. good morning. of course we've been watching that 20k mark for a while now. i think the dow first crossed 1 19,900 a little over a week ago. when does it become conspicuous that we can't get there? >> i think that it would probably look that way if we had a more significant pullback. what you've done here is just

basically paused right under it. you haven't pulled back at all. we're having one of the very narrowest ranges today and that kind of hints that the market can't make up its mind whether it wants to make one more try. now, yesterday while it shouldn't have taken place, the market seemed to react to the oil price. i say it shouldn't have taken place because it was not the energy stocks that were boosting the dow. but when oil pulled back a little bit, we came back from the threat of going through 20,000. when oil came on a little bit, they went back up. so it was more psychological than an actual correlation. >> today oil is not doing much. chevron and exxon are in the green as far as the dow is concerned. it's other stocks like tech stocks pulling things down. it's like every day is a different excuse. >> i agree.

part of that may be international markets today. things iffy over in europe. same thing japan was down a little bit at the end rallied against the dollar. there's a lot of midweek indecision. when we sent out preopening cashin comments this morning, i got back over 100 not in office. many people have started their holiday. >> many commented our board looks frozen and it's not working because the range -- i just got this from our producer is narrowest on the dow interday. that says something. >> how do you interpret it? that they are building up steam here and standing still and close to 20,000 because they'll take a run at it or is it that

there's so much -- i think they're indecisive and not heavily populated. >> i can't tell if they're cheering the uptick or not but every little bit counts. >> art, you point out in your morning comments this essay yesterday by bridgewater on linkedin of all places. he talks about his optimism for negotiating trade deals and basically breaking down traditional economic barriers. how bullish did you read that essay? >> i was rather surprised to see. i think he was quite bullish. he made a point that many of us had discussed even on this show and that is mr. trump's appointments and nominations are what really catch everyone's eye. it's not that you agree with the political or economic view of each one of them.

but they are all highly competent people and have been successful and so people are saying, well, maybe this won't be a shoot from the hip kind of administration. that helped the market. >> on any other higher volume day, sentiment like that from that investor could be enough to get us up here. >> you don't have momentum. i think in light volume trading and markets are indecisive and so we're not moving. it's relatively early in the week. between now and year end, you have a positive seasonal bias. as i said, the dow has the most beneficial record of all of the indices. that's the one we want to move. that's the one in the best shape.

>> art, thanks. >> let's head over and get a market flash. >> so, carl, you are watching this dow jones industrial average flat ranged but dow transportation index is significantly underperforming the broader market today. the index is led to the downside by fedex on pace for the worst day since early september. transports having a breakout year. still, a half percent to the downside tells some people a little bit about what's going on at least on the transportation side of things. back over to you guys. >> thank you. when we come back, why amazon is a big winner this holiday season. first, rick santelli, what are you watching? >> i'm continuing to watch the notion that we're having a problem jumping the 20,000 area, and i'm wondering why. i can tell you one thing. there's a lot of reasons to be positive about this move that have nothing to do with when we violate 20,000. i call it a capital idea.

tune in after the break.

the street is divided on where nike goes if here. our desk will settle that debate and we'll get the top small cap pick for 2017. our call of the day. we'll see you in about 15

minutes. >> sounds good. thanks. just four days ago until christmas. you might be out of luck if you're looking to purchase an amazon echo before the big day. versions of the voice activated speakers are sold out on the company's website. the echo dot is expected to become available again shortly after christmas. for the larger echo, you have to wait until january 19th. this is going a whole lot better than the fire ever did, guys. >> it is. amazon doesn't report numbers on the echos sold so we don't know how good of news this is. we do know amazon had it on the market for a while. it's been buzzy. that perfect stocking stuffer under $150. so amazon seems to have something on its hand. google is copying them and apple will try things with siri in 2017. >> i want a stocking at your household if 150 bucks is a

stocking stuffer. >> a few years ago someone said how about we put a microphone in your house connected to the internet and some big company servers will listen to everything you say and occasionally say things back to you. i would say no. i will call the cops if you try to put that in my house. >> i got one as a gift and i'm incredibly impressed. as you get dressed, what's the weather today? it could be anything? give me the latest npr news. two minutes of radio news. kids ask her jokes. i just think the interface and the recognition capability is getting really good. >> until you have that moment. >> when something goes wrong. we'll let you know. we're getting breaking news back at hq. >> the swiss biotech company now saying in a news release along with johnson&johnson they're in exclusive negotiations regardless a possible strategic

transaction. no clarity on what that could be. no assurance that any transaction will result from this discussion and they do not intend to make any additional comments regarding these discussions unless and until it is appropriate to do so or a formal agreement has been reached. acknowledgement this deal discussion is taking place. back over to you. >> we'll watch that. faber will be back tomorrow. let's get back to the cme group. rick santelli. >> you know, obviously anyone watching cnbc, the best channel for business, has been talking about whether we cross 20,000. the issue isn't specifically that. the issue is can the post-election market runs continue? and there's been a lot of guests that bring out great points. one point i heard yesterday that came out that we discussed on this trading floor quite a bit, retro active. we'll hear a lot about that. a president-elect who is something that we haven't had before. an unusual person to be

president. people voted him in. my guess is that tax policy will be one of the first things that the administration tackles. i wouldn't underestimate how donald trump might view some of this. it isn't going to happen overnight and congress has to get everything in order, legislation has to be passed but that word retroactive is a powerful source. there's another area that i think warrants some looking into. we'll get around to it in an indirect way. first, let's look at chart of one of the big banks in italy. let's look at it over the last few days. it hasn't been trading very well. as a matter of fact, many italian banks have troubles. some stories coming out of italy are things like raising loan loss provisions, trying to raise capital for some of the banks, investors aren't cooperating. bail ins and bail outs increase borrowing. it's not a good scenario. while all of that plays out, i

find it fascinating. look at italian ten year and big picture mid 2014 and zero on it since november 1st. rates have actually moved down from around 2.15 in november to 1.82 now. more money left the eurozone financial markets this year than any time in the bloc's history. let's connect the dots. we can talk about domestic issues but capital outflows out of europe, where do you think they're going to go? my guess is you kind of already know. i wouldn't underestimate the notion of how many more capital flows are going to come into the u.s. rising rates helps that but so do negatives that haven't been addressed structurally in other parts of the world whether europe or japan. so i think that this is an area that is underestimated in terms of how much buoyancy it could give the u.s. markets and i also continue to think looking at

italian markets and italian interest rates and eurozone rates mask a larger problem. i don't know about you, but i don't think i would step any time soon to put my money at work to buy those dented securities out of some

uncertainty around the future of u.s. trade deals becoming a cause for concern among some of president-elect trump's most loyal supporters. farmers who have already been hit hard by the rising dollar. our jane wells has made her way to wyoming this morning with that story. good morning, jane. >> hey, carl, i'm at the cosby ranch in cowling wyoming. the u.s. has a trade surplus, so american's farms and ranchers want to make sure the president-elect doesn't mess with their trade program.

>> free trade is always a good thing. >> greg crosby is a wyoming rancher with about 1,000 head of cattle. it has been a bad year for all farm commodities. most are below break even because globally there's just a glut of everything, and as you mentioned, the strong dollar too. now, crosby's losses are offset by exports. exports at about $200 per animal. many in agriculture like him are concerned the incoming administration could trigger a trade war even maybe make changes to nafta. >> i am encouraged by the signs that i see that they are -- they are focussing on deregulation because deregulation reduces our costs of production and makes us more competitive with the rest of the world. >> now, cattle futures have started to bounce back even though they're still low, but it remains bad news for grains. especially corn and wheat. soybeans are doing a little

better, but that's thanks, in part, to chinese buying. trump has yet to name an agriculture secretary nominee. it's one big hole left in his cabinet, and that's very interesting. is it going to be someone who is going to want to crack down on things like taxpayers' subsidized crop insurance? who knows? i talked to one grain farmer in chicago and also a ceo and ethanol company. they say farmers put trump over the top. "he owes us." brett crosby thinks a lot of people voted for trump because he doesn't owe anybody anything. back to you. >> thank you, jane wells. and the markets still relatively flat on the edge of dow 20,000. bob pasani joins us from the floor. >> virtu financial, chatting about how things are going. people are getting out of dodge. this normally happens, but it's causing a problem for the dow 20,000 watchers right now. are we going to pull this off? >> i hope so. i think we need to stop talking about it, get it done, and then we start focussing on other things that we really need to

focus on, where not just dow 20,000. >> other than the low volume for the holidays, we've got a problem in that we're trendless in terms of leadership. look at the laggards there. goldman and jp morgan, big mover in november. the single biggest reason we moved to dow 20,000. industrials like ge, caterpillar are also big movers, and they basically stop going up. >> yeah. >> so the leadership that's come in recently, some of the energy stocks, chevron is at a 52-week high today, for example, exxon, but that hasn't been enough to move things forward. some of the consumer names, procter & gamble. we're sort of just passing around all the sectors to. there's nothing breaking out and rs forring the markets. >> what we've seen is the huge moves in certain sectors. we haven't seen the sell side at all at the end of it. >> there's no leadership, but there are individual leader sector groups during a day, during a two-day period, but that's all we're getting. we're not getting the huge

break-out. >> my point is the trend still is up. the trend is not down. the momentum is on the side of the optimists and the bulls still. >> his campaign was caught on this. >> are you optimistic that we are going to see an expansion of earnings because all of this tax cuts, lower regulations,

infrastructure program is based on the idea of this rally and that's going to translate into an appreciatable gain in earnings of 2017? >> i am going to be optimistic, yes. zbloog that's what we have to look at. better earnings going forward. >> your boss, vinnie viola nominated the secretary of the army. how does the firm feel about that? >> tremendous honor. couldn't have been, you know -- couldn't have been a better guide to to take that role. guys, back to you. >> thank you, bob. thank you very much. bob pasani. we're hovering just below 20,000. watch twitter shares continuing to lose ground on those executive departures. once again below the 200 day. shares of tesla have not gotten enough attention today. boosting its credit line by

about 500 million. we'll get bed, bath, and beyond, micron, and red hat. jim continues to pound the table on a tie-up between micron and some other chip companies. you know, a number of semis have done well, and it's been on a tear all year. you mention twitter, that's down nearly 5% today. i'm trying to look at who is doing well. >> yelp has done better than a lot of people expected. up better than 45% over the past 12 months. >> adding $30 per share since satia nodella came on. the company was awarded nearly $1 billion in an i.t. support contract with the defense

department. the stock is not up on that news. just a headline number is eye-popping. >> where is the trump tweet on that, some wondered yesterday? >> let's get to halftime and headquarters. the judge is back. >> carl, thanks. welcome to "the halftime report." let's go right to the wall and take a look at where we stand on wall street. we continue to march towards 20 thougs. the s&p 500 up fractionally today as is the nasdaq. with us for the hour today stephanie link, josh brown, john najarian. karen firestone is with us today. with us today from mountain view, california, is andy chase. he is with morgan