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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  December 21, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

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maybe turning a double top. >> guy. >> good to have you back, mel. i did miss you. i want you to know that. we never talk about hmc. tim brought it up, this google car thing. above 32, breaks out of a three-year down trend. >> i'm melissa lee. thankstrend. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. people keep asking me if they've missed the move, if it's too late to participate in this incredible rally. the answer? if you want to understand how this market has been able to run so much since the election and
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the gains are truly stunning even with the dow pulling back 33 points today, s&p declining 0.25%, nasdaq dipping. you have to stop thinking of the stock market as some kind of unified whole. the stocks that are leading the charge higher are a lot less vulnerable than many people think. that's right. the stocks that have charged up, taken us to the brink of dow 20,000 are pretty much entirely justified in flying at these levels and more important, the run could be more sustainable than people realize because of a term that i want to introduce to you tonight. the term is overhead resistance. overhead resistance. if you look at the ten stocks that are responsible for the lion's share of the gains in the dow, the ones that are up more than 10% since the election, you'll find they represent a group of companies that simply don't have a lot of overhead supply. meaning they don't have much stock up here for individuals or, more importantly,
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institutions to sell. that's because these stocks for the most part have been dogs for a long time, at least versus market darlings like facebook or amazon or alphabet or even apple, which have massive overhead resistance. in other words, there seems to be sellers every step of the way for the high flyers. have you noticed that? i mean every little bit. >> sell, sell, sell, sell. >> but for the leaders since the election, it's the exact opposite. the biggest winners here are a host of companies that don't have a lot of flippers. there's not much profit taking because at least so far there isn't much profit to take. let's go over them so you know exactly what i mean. why don't we start with american express, it's rallied 12% since the election. but before the vote, this stock had been a horrendous performer for ages. that's significant because those who have owned shares for a pretty long time, they're kind of wedded to it, warts and all.
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this rally doesn't want to make shareholders want to sell the stock because the stock is still nowhere near as expensive as when they bought the darn thing. they're more likely to be buyers than sellers, or they're braindead. how about insurance giant travelers? it's up a nice 13% since the election. like the whole insurance industry, travelers is a huge beneficiary of higher interest rates. they can take your premiums, invest them in treasury bonds. they now have much higher yields. that means the year-over-year comparisons could be staggering. plus travelers is as plain vanilla as it comes so there are few momentum owners. you can only imagine how high it can go before the people who bought it at say 115 feel the urge to ring the register. third, united health has climbed 13%. this stock is simply a horse, and it's viewed as one of the health care names that are safe to own in a world where the affordable care act is likely to be repealed, and trump has said that he wants to stop drug companies from putting through aggressive price increases. united health is a rarity hear,
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a health care cost controller that's not trying to merge, and it's already removed itself from the obamacare exchanges. also has a big data division that really hasn't been factored into its valuation yet. what's not to like, unh? next up, boeing up since the election. before then, its stock had been marking time for the last three years as the whole negative narrative of the 787 dreamliner had to play out, and it turns out the woes of that plane just aren't that significant to the bottom line anymore. it's the change in demand from large body to small body aircraft and the company margin compression that really hurt boeing stock of late, not demand. there's plenty of demand. but that's now in the past, and we're starting to see the gigantic cast conversion that comes from selling these narrow body planes for what aamounts to a hefty profit. it's incredible how much stock the company can buy back. it just put through a 30% dividend boost, far more than anyone thought they'd do. that's the kind of thing that
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makes you want to hang in there, not sell. plus the demand for planes out five years is extraordinary as more parts of the developing world join the middle class. boeing has got a lot more run way ahead of it, especially after three years of resting. it's frankly been on my pillow.com. then you have the stock of walt disney up 12%, which has been hammered endlessly this year. that's been worries about espn. it's one of their key profit generators. but somehow after that last quarter where the ceo assuaged our fears, disney has made a straight shot from 93 to 105. instead of looking at this company as a jie began take ailing sports channel with some movie and theme park appendages, the thesis has been turned on its head as the movie and parks businesses are so strong, that they're blotting out espn's woes. potential acquisitions could
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make didny more of a sports big data, machine learning. this stock has traded much higher in the past. the current shareholders already know about the espn down side. oh, and disney pays a very high corporate tax rate, making it -- you guessed it -- a trump stock. next, who wants to sell verizon here? i sure don't, even as it's climbed 11% since the election. the stock never should been wallowing in the 40s to begin with. how about chevron? up 10% since the election. do you really want to sell this 3.6% yielder as the price of oil keeps higher? you want to bet against fossil fuels with the most pro-fossil fuels president taking office since warren g. harding? then there's caterpillar. you believe in trump's $500 billion infrastructure plan, tell me that isn't music to the ears of cat's potential shareholders. unlike many stocks in the dow, caterpillar is nowhere near its former highs. which brings me to the real
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leaders, the financials. goldman sachs and jpmorgan. these stocks are so far behind the market for years meaning they've been left in the dust until the election that even though they've rallied endlessly, they just aren't that expensive as long as trump can deliver on his deregulation agenda. rather than asking why goldman stock is so high, why don't you wonder how did it ever sink so low to begin with, to around book value where the be creativ with its own money. that could come back in dodd/frank gets shelved or at least the portions relevant to goldman sachs. the gain post-election is a lot to preserve, but i wouldn't sell it if deregulation is even a possibility although i'd wait for a pullback now. finally there is jpmorgan. here's the world's finest lender, the biggest back, and it sells at merely 14 times earnings? come on, people, that's too low. with less regulation, it can
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raise its dividend. it can put its capital to work lending in a way we've never seen before because jpm only became a national bank during the great recession. we really just started sighing the benefits of its newfound reach. let's talk about the big win for jpmorgan, higher fed interest rates. if we get four more rate hikes for the fed, and that's a distinction possibility, this bank should be able to pick up, are you ready, skee-daddy, an incremental $3 billion for doing nothing. i think the stock's 24% gain reflects only some of this goodness. the rest will have to wait until 2017. here's the bottom line. the generals that have led the dow since the election are only very recently promoted. they're brig adeers. they have very few profit takers and very little overhead resistance. that's why these winners are still the place to be, and that's why it makes sense that we've run this much on the animal spirits unleashed by the incredible 2016 presidential election. mikey in new york, mikey.
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>> caller: hey, jim, it's mikey mike from long island with my son aidan standing by my side. >> love you both, partner. what's shaking? >> caller: love you too, jim. first i wanted to thank you again for your appearance on halftime report on monday. you almost made josh brown interesting. almost. >> the downtown man? he's very interesting. by the way, notice i didn't interrupt anybody and was really polite like i was at the springfield public school library? okay. >> caller: you did good. you did good. >> thank you. >> caller: my question is on lockheed martin. i was wondering with donald trump going after boeing with their high cost on air force i, i was wondering how you think this is going to affect lockheed's profitability in regard to some of their fighter planes like the f-35? >> we know that the president met with the ceo of lockheed martin. i think it's a dinged stock. i think that it's kind of like in the drug group right now meaning it's just too much in the crosshairs of the president-elect. i'd rather wait, let it settle down because i think that when
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the president-elect kind of seizes on something, he doesn't seem to let go very easily. that's just my impression. william in new york, william. >> caller: professor cramer, big buffalo bills booyah to you. >> holy cow. they're lifetime sufferers, i mean supporters. what's up? >> caller: my question to you is ntnx, after its recent earnings, seen some trend forward. after your awesome segment, what is your long term opinion? >> it's going to go down i think tomorrow because red hat disappointed. red hat is going to cause a ripple effect through all the cloud computing shocks. but it is a shot. i think it's speculative only, but i do like it. i think it's in a very good spot because it's got virtualization, which is what is triggering a lot of selling in the stocks even though i think it should be buying. willy in florida, willy. >> caller: hi, jim. merry christmas. >> same.
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>> caller: you have visited the dupont /dow merger several time in the last year. last spring i gradually moved out of dupont into dow which turned out to be a mistake as the shareholders in july gave the dow shareholders a 1.28 advantage. anyway, going forward i wondered what do you think about the new company's plans to split into three separate entities and -- >> right. well, my charitable trust owns dow. ed breen runs dupont. they're both good. breen is going to do dynamite things. they keep insisting they can get this deal done. meanwhi meanwhile dow, we we own for my chirt remains a core holding. still yields three. just got rid of the buffett preferred. i think it's a monster good stock. the stock is leading the charge are a lot less vulnerable than you think as we go over the individual players. i think they're still the place to be. on "mad money" tonight, i'm
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continuing my quest to position your portfolio for -- >> trump stock. >> president trump. what promises that he'll be friends to the energy and what does it mean? i'll reveal an oil company that i think -- then it's had a tough 2016, but recently costco has been on the up and up. can you ensure a happy holiday season by putting this stock back in your cart? and just yesterday i highlighted a company as a quintessential trump stock, and tonight the ceo joins me. don't miss my exclusive with paychex fresh off its earning. and stick with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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yeah, chevy was great in that. who played the wife? beverly d'angelo! juliette lewis costarred as the daughter. oh, i think it was um... chris columbus was the director... it's called claymation... narwhals really exist... actually guys, it was the ghost of christmas past... never stick your tongue on a frozen flag pole... yukon cornelius... "die hard" is considered a christmas movie! that's the unlimited effect. stream your entertainment with unlimited data when you switch to at&t and have directv. we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future.
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generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. for ages i've been telling to stay on the sidelines when it
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comes to the pipeline plays. as energy prices work their way lower and stay lower, these toll roads for oil and gas transportation simply saw less use, lost pricing power, and eventually many of the companies running them had to, well, let's just say slash their dividends big time, eliminating the yields that make these so attractive. to make matters worse, those same yields mean mlps are bond market equivalents. that's right, they're stocks you buy instead of bonds and that's the kind that spent most of the year getting hammered in anticipation of the fed's recent rate hike. but suddenly the playing field has changed dramatically for the pipeline operators. first donald trump won the election, and it's looking like he's going to be the most pro-petroleum, pro-pipeline president in a generation. in terms of being in favor of fossil fuels, trump's cabinet picks put the george w. bush administration to shame, which is really saying something. needless to say, this is a tectonic shift, people, versus
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the obama administration, which has been a lot more focused on fighting climate change, protecting the environment, and stopping pipelines. by contrast, some of trump's appointees don't even believe in climate change. this show is "mad money," not mad meteorology. the pipeline companies should do a lot better under the new pro-energy and pro-deregulation regime. you want a real climate shift? get this. former texas governor rick perry, trump's pick for energy secretary, actually serves on the board of energy transfer partners, a huge pipeline mlp that's behind the controversial dakota access pipeline that obama recently blocked. talk about simpatico. then as if that wasn't enough, opec comes out with a production freeze agreement, which is what's allowed the price of crude to rally rather than being mired in the mid-40s. suddenly a major pickup in production the next year and the
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year after. that's why i think it's time to circle back to the pipeline space. there's one company in particular that i really like here. it's called magellan midstream partners, mmp for all you home gamers. it's a stock we just bought for my charitable trust a few weeks ago. what's so great about magellan? over the past dozen years, this company made a series of acquisitions to the point where magellan midstream now is 9,700 miles of pipelines forry fined products, 80 refined products terminals and for crude oil, another 2,100 miles of pipelines along with storage facilities capable of holding roughly 23 million barrels and five marine terminals for imports and exports. now, like most pipeline mlps, magellan's stock has caught fire since the election. it's up 12%. it's now at $74, just a few points away from its 52-week highs. i bet it still has a lot more room to run. why do i like this one more than the other pipeline plays?
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the company has got a diversified base of assets, got exposure to refined products. think about gasoline, crude oil, and even ammonia, some of these derivatives of oil. if the price falls back, magellan is a lot less vulnerable than many of its peers. second, the oil related assets magellan does have are very high quality. they own the long horn pipeline, which . they own part of the bridge text pipeline system. this transports crude from colorado city texas, down to the gulf coast. both pipelines take oil from the red hot permian basin and bring it to the closest major energy market, and that's the huge opportunity in this country right now. i think the bridge tech's pipeline system in particular could have a lot more upside since it only came on line in 2014. we haven't even seen how well it could do in ang environment where oil production is on the rise as you know because we've had cimarex and pioneer on.
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the vast majority of their money comes from fee-based businesses. remember, this is very important when we're dealing with pipeline operators. we prefer the ones that actually operate like toll roads as opposed to the ones with direct commodity exposure. for magellan, the company gets more than 85% of its operating income from fees, so it's got less -- not none, but less exposure to swings in commodity prices. fourth, this is a bit technical, but one of the key differentiators for magellan, it's got a low cost of capitals. this is the most positive thing of all. for those of you who aren't familiar with mlps, these are partnerships. he's -- there are the limits partners, that's you, the normal shareholders, who get regular distribution payouts. most need to fork out money to the general shareholder, but magellan acquired its partner in
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2009. in turn, that makes it easier for them to borrow money when they want to start a new project. the other thing about magellan is that while the pipeline plays have run up since the election, they haven't run nearly as much as the exploration and production companies. for example, the s&p oil and gas exploration etf, that's up 18%. grant granted, magellan is up 12%, but it's less overextended than any of the oil producers we follow. this company sports a safe 4.5% yield, and the payout is large enough that it will continue to attract income seeking investors even as interest rates continue to rise. unlike treasuries there's a very good chance magellan will increase its distribution. that's being facetious. treasuries don't increase their distribution. these are very tough times for t pipeline companies. magellan's brilliant ceo, just
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imagine how much he might raise the payout in better times. two weeks ago, magellan filed a registration statement with the sec, saying they may do a secondary offering, issue more stock to raise as much as $750 million. that allows the company to do a block trade at some undetermined point in the future. one big chunk, okay? normally this kind of thing would put pressure on a stock, but this market hasn't done anything to keep -- it's actually up 4% since the filing. still, if this secondary does happen, i'd regard it as a terrific buying opportunity. you have to be in there if and when it happens. now you're prepared to do so. with oil prices back in the 50s and u.s. production set to rise dramatically next year, it's time to circle back to the pipeline plays. right now my maefave is magella mid-stream partners. this is the only pipeline company that didn't stumble during the downturn.
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it could be the bone that does the back now that we're back on terra firma. much more "mad money" ahead. they changed the way america shops, turning bargains into a billion dollar business. could the costco's recent run mean it's time to add the stock to your portfolio in bulk? then my executive with paychex. with the december rate hike behind us, where does the company stand now? i'm talking with the ceo fresh off of earnings. and feel like the market is going too far, too fast? take a deep breath. i'm revealing what can keep you grounded in this market. stick with cramer.
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regular viewers know that i'm a long time fan of costco, the fabulous warehouse retailer that offers amazing bargains and a genuinely enjoyable if not down right exciting shopping experience. i think their membership program
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is one of the best deals out there, perhaps even rivaling amazon prime. oh, and amazon prime doesn't sofr stew pen does hors d'oeuvres like costco. i go to costco after fasting and i eat every sample they offer, even the ones i don't like. i beat them at their own game. in short, i'm a big believer. hence why we own costco for my charitable trust. this while costco has been a terrific long term performer, long term the fact is that until vee very recently, 2016 had been a lousy year for this stock. people are always saying do you have any stock that hasn't moved yet? we're talking about one, costco. since the election, though, especially in the last few weeks, costco stock has caught fire. it's rallied nearly 20 points. given the fact it's done nothing, i think that this move has only just begun. before we get into the triumphant return, you need to
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understand why its stock was such a lousy performer for most of the second half, right up to trump's surprise victory. costco peaked in august at 1 69d dollars, but then it was brought lou, falling to $142 before the election. the reason? the general awfulness of the broader retail environment. some of it was company specific. in this case, investors were worried about a slowdown in same-store sales caused by gasoline deflation and costco's credit card shift, the transition from a costco american express card to a visa card, a transition that did not go well. as soon as the election was behind us, the stock sprang hiver, hasn't looked back since as more and more ceo's have come out in favor of trump agenda. let's call it as we see it. it's a trump stock. if he can pass stock reform, he better because believe me, this company's 34% tax rate is going much lower. the costco come back is about a
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whole lot more than just washington. first costco reported air positive same-store sales number for november, up 1%. not fabulous, i know, but it's not a decline, which is what really matters. then they reported two weeks ago and while headline numbers were far from impressive, 1% same-store sales increase for the whole quarter, if you looked under the hood, these results were very strong. more importantly, management's commentary on the conference call was just incredibly bullish, which helped the stock ascend into the 160s, where it's currently trading. what got investors so excited? remember how everybody was worried about costco's transition from american express branded credit cards to visa branded credit cards? it seems like they finally got past the speed bumps and it's finally starting to pay off. if you're a retailer and you can only accept one of credit card, it's much better to be on visa. on the conference call, costco put all these credit card
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concerns to rest, saying that 85% of the accounts that had been transferred only had already been activated. beyond that, since the switch on june 20th, costco has seen more than 1 million additional members sign up for the new visa card. >> buy, buy, buy. >> but it's not just the credit card issue. pretty much all year costco has had a serious problem with deflation, especially gasoline deflation, because you can fill up your tank at many of their locations. the problem is that when oil and thus gasoline get too cheap, costco's cut from selling gas to the consumer is smaller, okay? so wall street loved it when management told us this deflationary overhang may be abating. here's what rich gal anti had to say on the call. overall, i think the feeling is given that the last few months have been a little more deflationary, the view is that it's not few months of that. but we all believe it's going to come back the other way, end quote. turns out he was more right than we knew. with opec putting through a production freeze and the price of oil climbing and gasoline just had one of the biggest spikes of the year, i got to
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tell you it is additive. and what was this -- >> a house of pain. >> is now this. >> house of pleasure. >> what's it mean for costco? with deflation abating at last and they have a lot of food deflation too, the company's same-store sales should begin to accelerate rather rapidly. costco will soon annuallize tobacco products. once we reach the spring, they'll be up against easier comparisons and the hit from no longer selling cigarettes will stop showing up in their numbers. how much of an issue is this? in the latest quarter, the same-store sales were up just 1%. but if they were still selling tobacco and gas prices were steady, the number would have been 4%. so removing the signatuining -- those two positives, costco is doing very well. on the call, management indicated that beginning of december was very strong from a same-store sales standpoint after a somewhat choppy november. there was a little kind of
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problems in november in the month as they stated on the conference call. even better, costco has a number of catalysts coming next year. for starters, the company is likely to raise its membership fees. i know i'll pay. it's probably going to be in the first half of 2017. that's going to be huge because membership fees represent 70% of costco's earnings. 70% of the operating earnings are from the card membership. that's the real profit generator here. every time they've raised these prices in the past, it's been a beiger boon to the stock. this potential increase in membership dues was a major component even as we'd been talking about it for months. no one was listening. as management said on the conference call, if their same-store sales stay soft, that actually makes them more likely to raise these fees, not less. either way, you end up winning, especially since there's almost no increase in attrition when these increases come through. second possible catalyst, costco has a history of paving big special dividends.
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they did it in 2012. they did it in 2015. could they do it again in 2017? given president-elect trump's stance on lower corporate taxes and the repatriation of foreign assets, i think costco will pay another sizeable special dividend. finally the reason why i've been so loyal to costco stock is it's one of the few retailers out there that still has incredibly loyal customers. today there are tons of places where people could buy toilet paper in bulk. many people prefer to buy from costco because they offer some of the best deals around. when a world where it feels like every re tailer is falling this close to vimz to amazon. cost kot is one of the few that seems unamazonable. i should add they're finally upgrading their website, which you know has been horrendous if you're like me and say, wow, this has got the worst search
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functions. it was awful. it's finally getting better. and, look, while costco stock is far from cheap, you have to understand that these estimates could be raised dramatically the moment the company boosts its membership fees and goetzs the corporate tax decrease. it seems poised for a major turnaround and when you throw in the potential for higher member ship fees and a possible special dividend, i think it's too attractive to ignore. it's why i think the costco comeback, it's just beginning. phil in my home state of new jersey, phil. >> caller: booyah, jim. how are you? >> i am good because i like a lot of the action after the close. how can i help? >> caller: question for you. if the election -- i'm calling on constellation brand. if the election with all of the headwinds and trade and everything else, constellation brands fell 9%. it kind of rebounded last week a little bit, and yesterday it fell again another 4%.
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do you know why they sold off yesterday, and do you foresee any major headwinds going on and the stock will fall further? >> i do think there are a lot of people who feel that somehow you're not going to be able to import mexican beer at the same rate you can do it now. the peso has been a real boom for them. i still like constellation brands. some of the story did get less positive when trump won. it was certainly more of a hillary stock than a trump stock. but there's so many good things happening there that i think that you just -- this is the pause that will end up refreshing. and just to remind people, this is corona and modelo that we're talking about. brandon in california, brandon. >> caller: booyah, jim. >> booyah. >> caller: i wanted to find out what are your thoughts on t chipotle mexican grill are. >> august. it's going to take 18 months. i just did a real survey that i thought was actually unscientific and unempirical but still fun on twitter.
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please send me a picture of your chipotle. go back and do it again tonight. there were too many that were empty. it takes 18 months for america to forget, and we are only in month twelve. costco, it's the way to go. 'tis the season for this unamazonable retailer. it's just too good to ignore, including those free samples. please don't go on a full stomach. wait for another moment. much more "mad money" ahead. with news small business is up, is it time to pick up pay chix? then in this year of excess, i'm pointing out the reality check in this market you should be paying attention to. and all your calls rapid fire in tonight's special edition of the lightning round. so stick with cramer.
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last night i recommended the stocks of adp and paychex, the nation's two largest payroll processors as quintessential trump stocks. they benefited from proposed policy, which are likely to spur hiring and also from higher interest rates. remember, in the time between when these companies get paid by their clients and the moment you deposit your paychex, adp and paychex are collecting interest on that cash, and that's called the float. however, i also told you that paychex was reporting this morning. and given how much the stock had run, i predicted it was likely to pull back no matter how good the results were. so how about these results? paychex, which also has a big outsource human resources business delivered a one cent earnings beat off a 55 cent basis. and while management mostly maintained their guidance for 2017, they did raise their forecast for the interest they collect on the float from mid single digits growth to high single digit growth, which makes sense given the fed just last week told us we'll likely get three more rate hikes next year. what really amazes me here,
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reaction to the stock. while this was a decent quarter, the company did disappoint on the top line, and i figured that would trigger the kind of selloff i predicted yesterday. instead while paychex lost 1.67 this morning, it quickly rebounded, and by the end of the day, the stock looked like it had barely gotten dinged. that tells me there are big buyers out there looking to own this one even into the slightest weakness which means could have a lot more room to run, especially if management's forecast for next year turns out to be too conservative. let's check in with martin mucci to find out more about the company and its prospects. mr. mucci, welcome back to "mad money." >> thanks, jim. good to be here. >> let's parse the pros and cons here. you've got an economy that could accelerate under president-elect trump. i think could be going as much as 4%. but you also have deregulation and paychex help mez and a lot of other people with regulations. how does the tradeoff come out plus or negative for paychex? >> i think there's always going to be some regulation, and i
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also think that at least for the next two years, there's going to be a great amount of change in regulation. when there's change, especially the amount of change i think we're going to see under the trump administration, clients are going to need someone like paychex and look to someone like paychex to help them through what is changing and what do they need to do. >> if there is deregulation, i have to believe companies in the small to medium size, which are very afraid and really need paychex, would come to you and also do hiring at the same time. >> well, i think they would, and i think what we're going to see also, don't forget even while federal regulations may go down, state regulations will tend to jump up because they're going to look for ways to make revenue if the feds decrease some of the regulations. i think we could see that. i also think the hiring -- there's great optimism, as you know and have said, the nfib business optimism is at one of its highest rates in many years. i think there's a lot of optimism. we're just kind of waiting for the actions to play out. >> now, a lot of these analysts have been waiting endlessly for the fed to raise rates.
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there's some that still have a sell on you which i find embarrassing because of the incredible performance you've delivered. just explain to people what a rate rise mean and if we do 4 next year, what that means to your bottom line without you necessarily having to add any more people at all in order to be able to capture that. >> well, our average float right now is -- the client float is around $3.7 billion on any given day. so when you take -- and half of that is in short term, so we could turn around probably just under $20 million, $15 million to $20 million a year in interest income just from those increases of about 1%. every quarter percent around 3.5 to $4 million a year, and that's normally in tax-free investments. >> now, i think that there is -- i want people to understand it doesn't happen immediately, though. you talked on the conference call about there is a bit of a lag effect, right? >> yeah, there is a little bit. about half of the portfolio is in short-term, so we will get that pretty quickly as our cfo
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noted today. probably 45 days to start to turn around the short term, and then depending on the yield curve, you know, and the maturities, then we'll start investing in the long term as well and may even change that distribution depending on what makes the most sense for us. >> you guys do great work geographically and you do great work on optimism. are there some areas of the country that have really just kind of blossomed since the election where you're seeing people who gin winly believe that the expansion is going to occur and they're trying to get a jump on it? >> i think even before the election, the southeast is where we're seeing the biggest job increase for small businesses, and that's in really in construction, both commercial and residential. you look at the states of florida, georgia, those areas, even north carolina, you know, they're doing well in construction. those are the biggest job increases we're seeing. you know, we're seeing wages go up as well, particularly in the hourly. we're about 3.5% increase is what we're seeing year-over-year right now. that's a very positive thing to
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see. >> all right. now, i know a lot of people were fixated on the notion that if the affordable care act is scaled back, that's going to be an immediate hit to paychex earnings. you did say -- i mean you admit that that's a complicated piece of legislation, and it's entirely possible there could be a little bit of a let-down, but it's still -- as you mentioned, there's still some things that have to wind down. but it's so complicated, would many small businesses and medium sized businesses actually understand the changes still? >> well, they probably won't. but if the requirement that you -- the mandate to have insurance comes off that 50-employ-plus company, we will see some clients get out of it. but it's going to take time. i don't think this is something they're going to turn around fast. i think it's going to ease out, and i think something is going to replace it, which will still need someone like paychex to help our clients through that. and because that amount of change, i think, is really going to still cause them to need us. and we're expecting still to have pretty good growth because of that.
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>> well, i think that this story is a great one, and i love the interest rate hike because i know that you don't have to hire new people to be able to count that money. that's marty mucci, the president of ceo. we've recommended it, a solid performer the whole time. "mad money" is back after the break.
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>> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. >> it is time! it is time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." that's where i take your calls rapid fire. you tell me the name of the stock. i tell you to buy, buy, buy or sell, sell, sell. we'll play this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? it's time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." we'll start with barat in oklahoma. >> booyah, jim. >> booyah. >> caller: do you have an opinion on steel? >> the only steel company we're recommending is new core because new core has great fundamentals. let's go to peter in florida, peter. >> caller: hey, jim. given that the price of fuel at the pumps is going up, what's your opinion about cst brands? >> cst is being acquired, so you're not going to be able to make any money on that. may i suggest marathon pete. chris in new york, chris. >> caller: jim, trying to
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maintain a little balance in the portfolio in the health care field. wonder what you thought of senior housing properties trust? >> too risky. don't like that particular segment of the real estate investment trust market. let's be really careful. let's go to larry in missouri, please, larry. >> caller: happy holidays from st. louis, jim. >> merry christmas, partner. what's up? >> caller: thank you. i took a nice position in west star energy five years ago and the price has doubled. so along with the dividend reinvestment program, it's been a nice ride. >> what can i say? continue it. just continue it. you've got a very smart idea. you continue to invest more in it. the yield's not that great right here, but i like it. let's not do anything. george in california, george. >> caller: thanks, jim. china buys most of this company's output, so i'm concerned about mr. trump possibly beginning tariffs. >> it's had such a big move.
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bhp had such a big move. i actually really would prefer free port to any of these. i think that's a better do. lou in my home state of new jersey, lou. >> caller: how you doing, jim? booyah. >> booyah. >> caller: what do you think about eog? are they poised to take -- >> eog is still going higher. they're all good. tom in hawaii, tom. >> caller: yes. how you doing? booyah. >> booyah. >> caller: my question is mattel. >> i like mattel. i like what they're doing with salesforce, the 5% yield seems okay. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that,
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you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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you always have to keep one eye on the fundamentals during this period of what many describe as total excess. we have to use the current data that we can grab in order to make a case that the market isn't going too far too fast. how many times have you heard that, on the promises we've gotten from president-elect trump, promises that need to come true or else we're going to roll back a serious part of this gain. fortunately, we actually have both top down, macro, and micro data coming pretty rapidly right now, meaning individual company reports, so we can do a reality check. for example, we got existing home sales this morning, which were quite strong. 5.61 million in november. that's the best since february of 2007, right before the great
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housing crash occurred. i can't stress how important this november figure is, but it was ignored by everybody. robust existing home sales are crucial to all sorts much businesses from banks to retailers to service companies. at the exact same time, we got data from the association of home appliance manufacturers, which showed an aunder toing 13% increase in november to 5.62 million. now, while home home depot didn't take off, whirlpool did. i'm also partial to masco, the kitchen and bath company off these numbers. how about individual stories? yesterday i was pleasantly surprised by the commentary on both darden and carnival. weekend dining and lunch were very restraining for darden, the parent of olive garden even though the ceo acknowledged he's competing against, and i quote, new necessities today whether smartphones, your cable phone, netflix bill. they have increased
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significantly over the years, end quote. is there any wonder why takeout pizza is so strong? makes me want to buy both darden and dominoes. then there's carnival. i had my doubts because of worries about the zika virus, but i clearly misunderstood and underestimated the wrooiorldwid desire to cruise as well as how well it's run. i bet 2017 will be a bang-up year. the most telling moment ftz call, the incredible demand for cruise ships in china. the company doesn't have enough ocean liners to sate the demand. talk about a high-quality problem. now, it might look like we had a speed bump with both accenture and fedex, the freight transportation titan. both stocks were down badly today. but the decline in accenture stock was caused by management's typical typically cautious commentary. the company blew away the earnings, delivering 1.58 per
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share when the street was only looking for 1.50. i would buy accenture stock tomorrow without a problem. good example of how there's still value in this market. fedex is tougher. i don't know if i instantly want to go out and buy a stock that's still up 30% this year alone. boy, oh boy, did they have to spend a lot of moola to keep up with e-commerce. to me, the conference call was a great sign that the omni channel retail for e com is strong, and amazon in particular is how to play it. the lone dark spot, athletic wear. we got very mixed numbers out of nike dominatically even as the company went out of its way to say that basketball is strong. then finish line completely disappointed. with a horrendous miss and a similarly awful guide down. i know that nike beat the numbers, but i didn't like what i heard from either company about domestic business, which is why nike ended up gaining only about 51 cents after being up as much as two bucks last night.
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to make matters worse, this is -- >> not a trump stock. >> as it already pays low corporate taxes and badly exposed to china. let's admit if the lone dark spot here is $100 plus sneakers where the micro and macroare strong, i'll take it. business is still good in the real world, and it can't trip up the market as it awaits the trump turbo growth try pod of deregulation, repatriation of overseas profits, and a slashing of corporate taxes. stick with cramer.
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after the close, as i've been saying, micron reported a terrific quarter and gave you great pro-jexzs. i think it's a terrific stock to own for 2017. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer, and i will see you tomorrow!
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>> tonight... >> my car. >> so long, sammy. on "jay leno's garage"... >> hey! >> rock and roll and internal combustion. [shrieking] >> i-- >> it's a combination that's been part of the american dna since the 1950s. >> it makes such a racket. >> you're used to making a racket. but really, it's hard to imagine any musician... >> whoo! >> without a car to match their music. i even got, like, a liberace outfit on. tonight we'll drive 55 and faster with rock legend sammy hagar. >> he'll be sorry. >> r&b diva kelly rowland reveals a wild side. >> i got one ticket. >> how fast were you going? >> about 120. >> 120? country star brad paisley shows off camaro's hidden feature that's really pretty cool. i just like the fact that that got past the attorneys.

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