the sweet spot of automotive, ai. >> i like to get my shopping done early. as i went to the malls i noticed the parking lots were not crowded. i can get a spot like i hadn't been able to in prior years. >> thanks for watching. "closing bell" starts now. welcome to "closing bell" i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffith. bringing ground hogs day to broadway in february. >> the movie? bill murray? >> as a stage production, a musical. we are living through that right now. >> it's true. is today the day. >> waiting for dow 20,000. the watch is in full effect as the blue chip average moves closer to that level. we are up 21 points right now.

we need 38 more points. we will talk about what it will take to get us over the threshold and which potential santa claus rally stocks could lead the way. >> if that makes you bill murray. oil higher today up nearly 50% this year. a look at which names in the energy sector can keep fuelling your portfolio. >> i got you, babe. and president-elect trump wants a tax holiday to encourage american companies to create jobs from cash that they bring back from overseas. will companies just end up using that money to reward shareholders with stock buybacks? we will hear from both sides of that debate later. we start with the dow's post holiday run. bob pisani standing behind us. >> and it is groundhog day. we went up 25 points. it's pretty narrow right now. remember the leadership still in tact. biggest stock on the dow price

weighted index. it's seven to eight points. caterpillar moving up in the middle of the day. that is helping out a little bit. it is three or four points. swing around here let me show you mercke. it started moving up. it is a small move but getting to dow 20,000. ibm is a laggard up two or three points. most of the rest of the dow is completely flat. a few aren't helping at all. wish theywit get off of their butts. here is nike costing us four or five points on the down side. what does it all mean? the big stock in the last month and the last since the election has been goldman sachs. huge moves, about 20% of the move. entirely due to goldman sachs. travelers, boeing and apple. >> thank you very much. we'll see you later.

on we go. let's get to our "closing bell" exchange for this tuesday. david wadell is with us today. kenny p from o'neil securities at post nine and rick santelli checks in from the cme in chicago. welcome. kenny, what is it going to take? it's been the financials that have gotten us here. maybe it is the financials that need to move us over. >> if they blow on the financials a little bit i think we go right to dow 20,000 quickly. it feels like today like it has felt for the past week and a half. we get so close and then we fail. we were up at 19,980 earlier today and then it just fell there again. you can feel it is not just ready yet. i think it will happen this week. i think they have to give a little nudge and we would be at dow 20,000 in seconds. >> what are your picks here? >> well, i forget down 20,000 let's talk dow 30,000 by the end

of the year. let's talk it up. >> which year? >> 2,000 points a day, no problem. >> did it work? i hate to be consensus but i think the consensus is right going into next year. i think it is u.s., small cap. i think it is cyclicals and consumer discretionary and financials. i think a lot of people have dusted off their play book from reagan 1.0 which, by the way, was a pretty fantastic period and just dollar was up 50% during that period and the s&p was up 50% in that period, as well. >> we talked about the analogy almost at nauseam. you look at the inflation in that period. from that point of view it is hard to compare at least in this point in the early days. >> so let's cut those numbers in half for those concerns you

mentioned. i mean, a tax reform is a big deal. anybody who bet against trump so far has lost money. assuming that trump gets his agenda across which again the market believes he can, then there will be some fiscal stimulus to match monetary stimulus. we are back to a guns and butter era. my expectation is that the reality does meet the expectations. we just have to get to january 21 to figure out what reality is going to be. >> we are all waiting for dow 20,000. nasdaq starting at 5,500. yields continue to creep higher. as we move into the new year we have exceeded expectations for the end of this year. what do you see happening in the first quarter of next year for the yields on the curve? >> i think a lot is going to depend on trump's 100 days and how the equity markets in general respond. if we continue to build on the

rally now and i know it is fun to do the 20,000 thing. to me the main issue is very little giveback. on interest rates i think the big topic and you talked about it a lot is the rebalancing. until i see the rebalancing in interest rate and ten year start to dip i hold out hope for 20 k this year. i think for next year the little questions need to be answered. i don't think interest rates give up a lot of ground. the real issue is will we see a three handle? i think one main litmus test is something as simple as repate reegz of money overseas. if donald trump allows it to go into the equity market that is one thing. if he puts incentives on it i think that would be good. kelly just said it was different back then. i think we forget how market negative and wall street negative and bank negative

everything has been since the credit crisis. i would not under estimate the power of going the other way. i think there is a lot of horsepower left. the first 100 days will decide. >> my point was more about inflation. in early 1980s and you know this better than i, you had rampant inflation and a big deep recession and the fed doing the tightening. i meant from that point of view is it comparable? >> i don't know. i think there are issues today that make it almost worse which means that the spring is coiled, maybe the expansion when the foot comes off is going to be greater. we had more inflation but at this point we have had very little business spending, capital investment, r&d, policies giving a healing effect. i think there is something big here that everybody is just kind of glossing over. >> kenny, i was going to ask you

about something a little more specific and it is oil prices. what kind of impact? how important is it for oil to hang on in the rally for the market? >> i think it is important for oil to hang on. i think most people have oil somewhere between $45 and $55 for the year. not a lot of reason to see it rally much above there because the u.s. producers come back online. let me say one thing to the point. in the reagan era interest rates are 21%. 1982 and when i came into the business and when they started cutting rates is when the market took off. we are at interest rates sub1% at the moment. i think the market is going to do better i think you have to be careful comparing it to the reagan era because the economics were so different. >> you have the defensive stocks at this point because of expectation that rates are going up, right? >> i have been surprised that the move in the 30 year hasn't been as big as the move in the ten year.

maybe there is a little sort of concern about whether all of this economic growth will happen. going back to the '80s because i think it is so relevant, so when the interest rates came down and inflation came down with a thud into 1983 after the recession, you saw an expansion in pe multiples because we started off with nine. you saw earnings growth kick in. that is why i said cut it in half. over that first period s&p was up 50%, the first term. small cap value was up 150%. so there are places in the market i think you can go. what i think is wonderful is we are back in the environment of winners and losers. fundamentals are back in favor. i think there is a right way to play the market but a micromarket instead of macro market we have been stuck in since 2011. >> good stuff. appreciate it very much. >> let's get to crucial days for

retailers. massive post holiday shopping rush where morgan brennan is out in the middle of one of the busiest. herald square in mid town. >> i'm sure you can see around me it is extremely busy and i'm sure the warm weather we are getting throughout the northeast is only helping matters. so far the early read on holiday shopping has been pretty solid. mastercard spending shows up four percent year on year. that is the high end of many forecasts. total holiday e commerce spending surged 19%. the big winners men's apparel and furniture and furnishings. jewelry sales and electronics falling versus last year. it isn't over yet with just four full shopping days left in 2016 and consumer confidence at 15-year high retailers are really ramping up the promotions

to get consumers back into their stores and spending. macy's is offering up to 60% off some items, up to 80% off jewelry. nordstrom is having its sale and j.c. penney promoting up to 70% off. key part of the strategy as well is going to be returns. many of the retailers as well as offering free return shipping. what they are looking to do is looking to bring consumers into their stores to exchange those unwanted gifts in store and the reason they are driving foot traffic and sets the stage for a more profitable exchange and possibility of additional sales. if you look at the retail etf that was up and is up coming into the close on the earlier readings as we get data showing solid holiday shopping but it is under performing the broader s&p

for the year. >> i would argue that returns of brick and mortar has the edge online. >> absolutely. it is 40% in the online retail wor world. >> ship it back in and if you have gotten it as a gift it is tricky. i went into the store and i didn't have the tags on and they took it. >> i bought some socks. >> it's a beautiful thing. morgan, thanks. >> we have about 45 minutes to go. dow is up 21 points. 19,9 19,954. s&p up 6.5. the nasdaq one of the out performers over 5,500 earlier. there is your dow 30 about two to one advance versus decliners and apple is leading the way today. two leading financial planners weigh in on dow 20,000.

how average investors should be positioning for the ride higher. the energy stocks are the biggest gainers of the year. we will hash out the bull and bear cases for 2017. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

>> what do you say we look at all 30 components, just move that camera to the right there and see. as we were saying before you need help from the financials among the groups we will not need much help from. >> there is exxon, companies in the red. disney had a great weekend with rogue one. some of the pharma names there, boeing about half of the 80 jet order and nike which is kind of its own down more than one percent. has the dow gets closer to the

20 k milestone where should you be putting your money to work. >> wealth management he is at post nine. >> you don't know what is going to happen politically with taxes and infrastructure spending, with trade, all of these things, that will have a big impact. >> indexing and passive investing. i think when we are looking at 19 times forward earnings based on optimistic observations about the economy i think investors need to take a pause here. i would favor a little bit against what jack has to say active investing, individual stock picking and look at sectors that maybe have not performed well trading at a discount to place your money into 2017. >> how do you sort of talk to

clients about getting involved in the market? do you say a little bit every day or try to be more tactical and take valuation into account? >> a little bit of both. i think it is always a good idea to dollar cost average. the question we have been getting from clients since the election is seeing a big run up in stock prices and a big drop so the question is coming from clients do we shift more into stocks? our advice to that would be one of caution. because of the move over the last two months we are still positive year to date in bonds if you're short term. we have been cautioning about longer term bonds. you really don't want to do market timing is what we are talking about if we are shifting out of bonds into stocks. >> what do you think about that? >> i think there is still you are looking at under three

percent. you getting decent yield in equity space. i wouldn't be making a large shift into bonds. that being said if you have been under weight fixed income now that we have the big drop getting back to investment policy and a time to shifting funds back. even places like preferred stock and high yelds, 6% is not bad for retirees. >> what about his point that maybe it is better to keep putting money into the market instead of trying to figure out when is the best time to get in? >> i think there is something to be said for that. back to the beginning with valuations at 19 times forward earnings i know now is the time to be loading up. >> what about the valuation of the market? i'm sure people say i have been out of this one maybe going back to the crisis, why should i get invested now given where it is trading at? >> i think they ask that question because if you have been sitting in cash that hasn't worked for you. cash is giving no return. the reason people invest is

because they figure out sitting at a bank won't accomplish their goals. our message has always been broad diversification. if you decide to load up on a stock or category, the problem is if you are wrong, forget retiring, you will find a new job. so it is true that stocks have high valuations and one of the longest bull markets in history so we have to be prepared for possible stock market drop. that is why if you are not a retiree or near it you don't want money in stocks. the bonds is not because you get a lot of return but when stocks fall they fall a lot. if you are in short or intermediate bonds when they fall they are usually small single digits. >> i will throw you a softball here. as we have had this long bull market we have seen a record amount of money going into etfs, the passive investing has caught hold with the average investor.

passive investing usually outperformed when the market is going up. as the market goes down you active managers have to do your jobs. >> that's exactly it. i remember back in 1999 everyone was saying get rid of active funds and go into passive investor when the s&p dropped about 35% to 40%. in times like 2009 everybody is looking for the active manager to prevent the next big collapse. you want to go against the herd. as the drum beat gets louder everyone is saying load up in the passive funds. i would be looking for good active managers who have a history of outperforming who protect on the down side if you get a pullback on the market. >> do you have specific names that you like here? >> i like the bio tech space. it's an area we ahave been unde

walth. names like amgen, 40% of sales in free cash flow. that's a name i have been looking at. in the mid cap space looking at names like polaris. i will be looking for individual select names. >> and the home of rogue one, walt disney. >> you have to buy disney at a year like this. rogue one, i would be picking up disney. >> thank you. thanks for joining us, as well. we are heading to the close. 38 minutes left. the dow is up 17. lost in the sauce is the fact that the nasdaq hit a milestone. 5,500 for the first time. we pulled back a little bit but we are in record territory. >> tesla shares gaining ground on news it is teaming up to make solar cells. buffalo could use good news. later we run through the

list of infrastructure related tech stocks getting a boost from president-elect trump's plans to rebuild the nation's aging roads, bridges and airports. that's coming up.

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and the fortune 500, and, can der insight pern to person, on what matters to you morgan stanley. and, can der insight pern to person, take a look at shares of tesla motors up. japan's panasonic is investing in a tesla plant in buffalo, new york to make solar cells.

the company says they expect production to begin next summer and about 6,500 workers will be employed. panasonic is supplying batteries for the upcoming model three car and last month acquired solar city for $2 billion. >> that is a sector of the u.s. there in western new york moving into ohio that badly need more jobs, more manufacturing jobs. that's going to be a great shot in the arm for that part of the country. >> banner deal for andrew cuomo. how much in incentives and give aways to make sure that it happens there. there is actually a little revitalization. the football team to win then everything would kind of come together. >> now they need a coach for that team. >> what do we have here? about 30 minutes left with the dow up 21 points. doesn't look like we will get to 20,000 but you never know. a leading trader will tell us

what he is watching into the close as we make the run. >> coming up, will one of the hottest sectors this year run out of steam in 2017? don't miss our bull/bear debate on energy stocks. stay tuned.

welcome back. we are looking to see whether the dow can find some way of moving higher out of this range it has been stuck in for most of the session. about 45 points away from 20,000. weakest performer, nasdaq up half a percent and russell up about that amount. matel is among the laggers. research reporting that overall toy sales declined 9% during the sixth week of the holiday season. shares are down about two percent. >> 30 minutes left in the trading session. matt is with me on the floor of the new york stock exchange. toy sales down nine percent this holiday season. >> my kids got all clothes. >> we need a new baby boom to bring them back into the fold.

dow 20,000. i know you love talking about it. >> we have been talking about it all day. >> what will we talk about when it is over? >> maybe football. i don't know what we are talking about. we are looking at index. >> indexes are all positive so you think we have a bigger boost. we thought we would get to it. it is so light. the ranges are so narrow. friday was narrowest. today is no better. no trends. it is really just -- >> do you blame some money managers after the run we have had since election day would you want to keep money in this market? take profits and -- >> no one wanted to be in the market. >> and brexit, too. >> now you would think that the prudent money manager would say i want out of this market completely and i want to see what the early 2017 brings. i don't know what we are seeing. i think we are seeing people stuck on their hands and waiting to invest the new money.

the new money is so far behind. >> bulls will tell you they are encouraged that we are not seeing much of a sell off as we move side ways here. >> i think it is great for the market believe it or not. i see all indexes are up. you can put a little bit of money to work in any sector and still see a modest benefit. when it turns the fear is that it will turn so fast and these people will -- i think that is why people are scared. >> not seeing as much because they are expecting taxes lower next year? i'm not a tax expert. i don't know if you are. >> i have plenty of tax losses. i would think -- i don't know why it is not happening now. you should be doing it now. we are not seeing it in the bio tech sector. people are starting to buy that sector or talk about it. as i mentioned a while ago i think that is one of the biggest ben fishiaries in 2017. >> time now for a cnbc news update with tyler mathisen.

>> walt disney ceo says carey fisher shared her talent and truth with her trademark wit who played princess leah died at the age of 60. disney has been making new "star wars" movies after buying the franchise four years ago. the author of watership down telling the story of a family of rabbits looking for a new home as died. richard adams was 96. his manuscript was rejected several times before the publication and is now one of the best selling children's books of all time. and it is that time of the year again workers preparing the 12,000 pound ball that will be dropped in new york's times square to mark the start of 2017. it is the time of year to deal with snow storms but you don't see this too often. phone video shows a north dakota man finding his outer t rex as he tries to move a foot of snow

in a t rex costume. why he would choose to do that? it must be warm in that costume. i'm think ag little hot toddy. >> i think you are probably right. >> that is fantastic. >> back to you guys. >> we have been there as he blows the snow. thanks. 26 minutes left in the trading session. the dow moving back a little bit up 18 points at the moment. opec preparing to scale back production. we will discuss what that means for the oil market. >> and president-elect donald trump pitting defense companies against each other while china makes a threat about send s its navy close to our shores. what it means for the defense sector coming up on "closing bell." well you could get suprt from thinkorswim's in-p ch so you don need a mfort pony. so what about my mational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrad

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seattle genetics has tumbled. the company says the fda has placed a clinical hold on several early stage studies on the cancer drug to treat a type of blood and bone marrow cancer. six patients were identified with clinical driven liver damage resulting in four deaths. crude oil not far from session highs. energy companies aligning. let's check in at the cnbc energy desk. >> in terms of what we saw in crude oil futures it was surprising. intraday high was 54.10 and closed almost 2% higher. what were the reasons for the rally? there is optimism because the deal is going to be implemented on sunday. people are looking ahead to that. that's not the only reason. you talked about the dow getting close to 20 k, maybe not going

to happen today or tomorrow but in the near future. crude oil traders are looking to see oil prices move higher when the equities move oil does, as well. it is optimism that there will be more growth in 2017. year end repositioning, maybe short covering happening here to give us the boost. there are risks to this rally. a couple of things you need to think about, the first one being that opec tends to cheat. a lot of people have seen this before with previous production cuts and they don't go through with it. in addition we have been seeing counts go up. our production could end up eclipsing what opec ends up cutting. that dollar index over 103. being ignored by crude traders but at some point it will have a bearish impact here. >> thank you. as you heard dow 20,000 doesn't happen tomorrow either. we'll see. how much should you play the oil space in the meantime?

joining us today manager at ridgeworth investors and andy with region atlantic. thanks for joining us. two things. the opec cuts but do they cheat and we not get the kind of cuts that they are calling for and the strong dollar? are those head winds that could keep oil from moving higher in the new year? what do you think? >> i think when you look at what is going on cheaters never win. when i look at what is going on you have least amount of spare capacity seeing inventory draw downs and production cuts. i think these are going to stick. they were very serious about this. you look at fiscal deficit issues right now they have economic issues and these are due to low price of oil. it behooves them to have production cuts stick, increase the price of oil and so you will see right now a second phase rally that will last another three to six months in oil and oil equities. >> and each individual country to get the most revenue that

they can and they have to. there is a lot of incentives for people to cheat here. are you confident they will be able to hold this thing together? >> not at all. i think opec has not a lot of credibility in terms of being able to produce the production cuts that they promise and it is always up to saudi arabia. saudi arabia is the under pound gorilla in the room. saudi arabia is losing market power to think about iran coming in. think about russia joining the coalition. i think there won't be a lot of follow through. >> so what has happened in the market? what has caused this rally? are they overshooting if we get some cheating by some of the opec members as you are suggesting, does that mean oil prices go back down? >> i think oil prices are fair in the 45 to 55 range. i wouldn't anticipate a lot of upside from here. >> that means $53 is more of a

ceiling than anything, you know, how much of that is priced in for the companies in energy space? >> quite a bit of it. so if i look to make an investment within energy today i will focus on companies that don't really rely on a lot of further upside from the price of oil. i would consider mid stream pipeline plays that transport oil as well as natural gas. i would consider oil supermajors like shell or exxon. >> where are you going to make money next year? >> i think when you look at where we have been our funds up almost 30%. we have been overweight energy and i think earlier this year reported on february 26 overweight energy and materials. we are in probably the second inning of an 11-inning cleveland indians chicago cubs type game. when you look at what is happening in energy right now you are looking at spare capacity and power generation in

china and how we are starting to consume more and more products. what you are starting to see now is just the cusp of the industrial renaissance not only in the u.s. but starting to see growth rev up across several different countries and that portends more oil consumption in 2017. >> last word? >> i really hope for the trajectory of a lot of economies including russia and saudi arabia that they do follow through. i think they will have a hard time doing it. this is not exactly a coalition of a lot of friends. it's more of a coalition that they have cobbled together of people having to produce oil. >> we will see what happens. michael underhill thank you for joining us today. happy new year both of you. and let's send it to susan lee for a quick market flash. >> i want to draw your attention to home building stocks today higher as strong monthly data shows home prices near all-time

highs. they are all up around 1% for the year. etf ticker xhb up more than one percent as cost of housing surges on high demand on the market due to shortage of homes up for sale. inflation adjust home prices below the peak of 2006. >> and working their way higher. thank you. 15 minutes to go. dow is up 20. s&p up six. mix is higher. small caps are best performers. we have been waiting patiently for dow 20,000. we will look at what is happening in the eurozone and japan.

i yeah

. we mentioned earlier the nasdaq has made a run at 5,500 today. we are in record territory. susan lee tell us all about it. >> we did push through 5,500 today. another record for the nasdaq index and the leaders today is propelled by the stock that just keeps on giving. nvidia up another six percent.

and just added to goldman's buy list. netflix having a good day. the video streaming site plans to release 60 original shows in 2017 and bio genanother advancer. approving new treatment. drug is being developed and marketed by bio gen. helping push nasdaq in gains. the index up over 5.5% since the election. not bad but lagging gains for the dow and the s&p 500. >> thank you very much. we will be checking back a little bit later. 13 minutes left in the trading session. a couple of stories moving marngts. tesla shares have been on a tear, a $256 million investment from panasonic promises to

create factory jobs in buffalo, new york by 2020. apple has been leading the dow's move back to 20 k. stock is up nearly one percent bringing us leading technology center. intraday earlier in the session. >> joining us now to discuss the thoughts, director of international portfolio management and art cashin is with us, too. where are you looking for opportunities here into the close and in the market? >> kelly, we are seeing greater opportunities in 2017 actually outside the u.s. >> if you are from international team somehow. >> that's your job. >> despite the bias, if you look at -- first of all from a long term asset allocation shows mean aversion potential than u.s. does because they hadn't worked

and u.s. has. >> so by that you mean they think it will revert higher? >> it is more than just that. there is a lot of things lining up for certain areas of the eurozone and japan for 2017. we were seeing a big difference in monetary policy now with the fed raising interest rates and likely more in the future. eurozone still definitely in monetary mode and we think that will generate better earnings. >> back at the branch kelly and i were saying we feel like we are stuck in groundhog day. what is going to push us over the top? >> this is the -- there is nothing really doing here. we have got to get up there in the next day or two because at year end there will be pension fund rebalancing. the rally in stocks and sell off in bonds has created a situation

where they have to sell stocks to get the positions back down. there might be as much as $35 billion worth of stock for sale going into year end. so the next two days are best we have got. i think you might make it on iursha. you keep inching towards it and at some point you will cross the line. >> one area where people might be buying in the market, what about companies? big buyback programs lately. depends on big ifs. >> then it's next year. so they will probably wait until the new year begins to see what the tax reform looks like. they will see what happens when they begin to approve or disapprove the nominees for the cabinet. that will start as early as the first business day of the new year. >> if anything the strong dollar that we have seen since the election might put a cap on our own market here but will certainly make your case here for better opportunities.

>> exactly right. we think currency plays a huge role in export earnings and what we have seen is basically a reset. we had a ton of volatility in the euro and yen. we are back to where we were at the beginning of the year. one thing we are excited about is if you look at eurozone exporters the valuation are a couple points cheaper despite the fact it outearned s&p counter parts. we expect with a weak euro we expect that trend to continue and should be a positive catalyst for earnings. >> there is a lot of political risk next year and plenty of people say they don't expect the project to hold together within the next couple of years. that's a pretty big asterisk. >> that is what distress markets are all about. that is where big gains can happen. >> you are in a distressed market. >> european banks are. we are not advocating those. much higher quality companies is what we look at. it is an excellent point. we look at 2016 you have two

really major events in europe with brexit getting thrown out in a referendum in italy. if you asked me if we had those events would there be a positive or negative sign on the markets i don't think i would have told you a positive sign. the truth is that politics changes the risk premium in the near term but interest rates are a bigger driver for earnings in the long term. >> it has been that kind of a year. brexit and the election in the united states. >> i was just going to ask you, that would be the market close orders. we will not have much of a loss. we will have to wait for tomorrow morning. i got you babe will be playing again on the alarm clock. >> we will take a quick break with the dow still hovering below 20,000. we have the closing count down in just a moment. president-elect trump is considering that tax holiday. u.s. companies can bring back profits from abroad and create

jobs. we have other ideas for those funds. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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paparazzi all over the place. we had a group behind us momentarily back there. i was going to show you the guys taking pictures as they go. i'm not going to start with the dow. you think i'm going to start with the dow. i'm not as we get to the closing count down. the nasdaq hit a milestone today. nobody is talking about 5,500 on the nasdaq composite index but it happened for the first time in history. it has come back here. last i checked it looked like we were going to finish in record territory for the nasdaq. s&p has been in record territory. i think we will fall back just short of its previous all-time high. we are doing pretty well there, as well. the dow, you know the story we are waiting for 20 k. it's not happening. we are still 57 points away from that as we get closer to the end of the year we get to the potential selling with pension fund rebalancing that art cashin was talking about. what are we seeing right now? the ten year yield is at a

year's high around 2.56. and crude oil also at a high for the year here in the $53 range as we wait to see if opec can cut production here into the new year and if that is the case, bob pisani, who knows how much higher oil goes? >> we had oil at a new high for the year. i'm watching this and i say surely exxon and chevron have a two percent move would put us over dow 20,000. they were the laggers. exxon and chevron were down today. these are the two biggest movers. the financial sector essentially unchanged. pioneer down throughout the day just turned slightly positive. these are the big four in the energy group in the s&p 500.

they were down throughout most of the day. that is a little bit surprising. i have to say. normally when you get oil hitting new highs you start seeing big oil companies move. this is ten days in a row 19,910 to 19,908, ten days in a row. >> 12 days for 10,000. >> you get a little technical deterioration as things naturally sort of settle down and then people start wondering. >> it doesn't help that it is happening at the end of the year. if this was in july it might have been a different story. we have the different year end book squaring and -- >> we have the last two weeks of the year up for the dow about 1.5%. santa claus rally, last five days, all the natural move has stopped and this is giving a lot of credence to pull forward the gains essentially. we have all of this discussion

about tax law selling and with holding until the next year. we don't know how to quantify that. >> it's going to happen. >> we'll see what happens. not today but maybe tomorrow. the dow up nine points on the close. girls in tech ringing the bell. i'll see you tomorrow, kelly. thank you, bill. welcome to "closing bell." the nasdaq is the one that is really almost there maybe got there today. 548,48 5,483.95. earlier today it crossed the 5,500 mark. the russell 2000 up to 1,377.

the s&p 500 was up about a quarter a percent today three points shy of record level and the dow closed barely higher less than 15 points here. we'll see how things shake out. 19,948 is your level, about 50 points shy of 20,000, a level we have been looking at for the last couple of weeks now. donald trump is saying he wants to make job creation a top priority when he is president. he is promising a corporate tax holiday to help get there. will it work? we will debate that coming up. joining me we have cnbc senior market commentator michael santoli. also with us senior portfolio manager. welcome to you. michael, what do you think about -- we popped up this morning. now we are drifting. art cashin saying we would like to see it happen before we turn the calendar. >> i think there seems to be this mechanical sell stocks to buy bonds kind of passive index

funds. i do think that is out there. i feel like we all sense that we are being tantalized by this move. if it were a third of a percent below it could be exactly this frustrating. >> likening it to the one minute on new year's eve. just another minute in our lives but is momentum. >> it's a point in the index chart to assess exactly how far we have come. i would say the s&p 500 also barely went up in approach. didn't quite get there. it is as calm as you would expect for the final week of the year and with the upside bias that you expect. >> if only the dow behaved like the s&p we would have been above 20,000. >> heavy industrials and financials. today was tech stocks having their turn so the nasdaq and s&p. it all makes sense on paper. i don't think the 20,000 thing will really be a story line that

continues that much longer. it is a thing where it represents the fact that the market has come a far distance in a short period of time and maybe needs to settle out for a while. >> this is the time of year we get the santa claus rally, last five or seven days of the calendar year. we are seeing a little bit of that, i guess. >> we usually get that nearly three quarters of the time we hit that santa claus rally. it can be explained with season ality. december seems to be a positive month. we are seeing that. i guess the big debate would be was any of that post election euphoria stealing from the late year rally. >> i love how few typical seasonal patterns have held this year. >> one interesting thing if you look at this period the santa claus rally that is supposed to be a tell for january. it was negative and januarys were negative. that is out there. but january was down the full

year has been up. we excel not good guidance. september and october are extremely volatile. none of that played out. >> what about santa claus fails to call bears will roam on broad and wall. >> not necessarily seeing that. there is a big burden of proof. we have seen a lot of speculation in the markets as a result of posturing of the president-elect and his policies. we need to get specifics and beyond the specifics of the incoming administration we also need to get demonstration of earnings growth. we have had five quarters where we did not see evidence of that. finally got to the third quarter and did see evidence. we need to see that confirmed as we move from the fourth quarter to 2017. >> comcast, cfg, mtv, adp, financials in there and consumer companies in there. media name and paychecks.

>> it is a pretty wide group. if you look at the total number it has not kept pace as the s&p has stayed around the highs. that is exactly what happens. the market flattens out you sort of tend to have a little bit of winded activity underneath the surface. not every stock is going to be able to vest itself. >> if you read much into this uaa, those shares of underarmer, nike was worse performing stock on the dow. there has been an issue in the market because there is a lot of it. we are talking about it. especially this time of year what do you make of that? >> it is a great point. we have an aging demographic. we don't need as much stuff. the consumer should be in a good position. we have seen wage growth and markets advance and housing prices rise. there hasn't been that killer product or app that has been needed out there. i think there is still a little bit of sobriety that stayed with

us post credit crisis. >> this is happening as consumer confidence jumped to 113.7. the home price index keeps moving higher. >> i think that burst higher is very interesting and the fact that the market took it and didn't really run with it is also really maybe counter intuitive. we burst above this level of 100. 109 was expected because of future expectations. it is about this feeling that maybe something is going to be better down the road. also, older consumers had this huge revival of confidence. they have been very down cast for a long time and after the election they finally threw in the towel and said maybe things will get better. what you find is high consumer confidence correlates with a very mature economic and market cycle. you want to be buying when confidence was plunging. are we at the point where we were too high for too long. >> the index is going to like

150. just quickly, what is the effects on the geopolitics. israel said it is extremely upset about the u.s. abstaining from the vote and is starting to make moves with business partners. even talking about the eastern pacific. so is some of that kind of filtering through the market here and just kind of taking things off the boil? >> it has from industry specific but hasn't from a broad market perspective. i think there is continue to be a bias higher as the momentum continues to play into the new year. but as we get into january the burden of proof does increase. not only do we need to see evidence of the earnings but from a policy standpoint it is wonderful to talk about concerns

over israel. we need to see what the issues and the priorities are from the new administration. >> fast forward to january 20. the chase is on. hedge funds have been lagging the market for a while now. new data suggests they can be just what the market needs to break past dow 20 k. jeff cox is here to explain. >> you can cut the hedgefund industry as big believers in the market rally. you can say they have been out ahead of the game. managers have been building positions in the market. there is net 64% long on stocks. that is at 2016 high. the same time hedges have cut short positions to a three-year low. this comes with the dow up about nine percent in the fourth quarter and the s&p 500 up half that. how they have done it, they have done a great job of picking sectors through etfs.

they bought etfs long in market in general and bought financials and have been short gold and have been short high yield bonds both etfs that lag the rally. one mistake they make is they missed out on the small caporaly. this is wrapping up as a pretty decent year. they are up close to five percent. it is good in comparison. when you are talking about hedging that is pretty good, as well. this is starting maybe to become an industry that we twupt look to for guidance. >> maybe. what do you guys think about the performance? it has been a tough year in terms of hedgefunds themselves. so many have closed this year. >> a bit of big windowing going on. i think the composition of returns that are most reliable are momentum and value. hedge funds are good at grabbing at momentum when it starts to

move. one of the things that caused the rallies after brexit and after the election here was people being badly positioned and having to rush and chase those moves. they got their allocations up. can the moves persist now that they are all in. >> when we talk about there has been a lot of publicity about the redemptions. as far as assets go the hedgefund assets have actually gone up this year and are actually just knocking on the door of $3 trillion attributable only to performance. i think mike makes a great point that they were caught on a number of trades and now they are getting back. i think it just speaks to a lot of pent up action that this market hasn't sea breeen yet. >> i was going to bring brian into the discussion here with thoughts on how it has performed. >> it is tough to get through times square during the holiday season. it's a nightmare. when you talk about hedgefunds i

think you have to separate out i think what you are trying to get at is active management of equities. is that going to be something in the future that is valuable. my view is yes. in terms of hedgefunds you can't knock them for lagging the market because a lot of strategies are not designed to do that at all. they are low volatility, long short type of things where it would be almost impossible to beat the market with the strategy. that is driven by institutional investors. in terms of active management everybody in the world seems to be on the band wagon of active management is dead, passive investing is back. i think 2017 could be the year of active management. >> you could be right. thank you for joining us. thanks for braving the crowds. he's a brave man dealing with it this time of year. much more of brian kelly coming up on fast money.

thank you for joining us here. stocks rallying to push the dow within points of 20 k. up next we look at whether a year end santa claus rally can push us. defense stocks under fire from tweets by president-elect trump and geopolitical tensions in asia. what do buy is coming up. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

the dow is within striking range of 20 k. bob pisani is here with a look at what is pushing the santa claus rally. >> we are so close and we are getting there. we are going to get there. everybody stay calm. let's look at what the markets have done today. remember goldman sachs is the key to the whole market in why the dow has moved. 400 of the 1,600 point move is goldman because it is highest priced stock. the dow, apple moved up a little bit. that is three or four points. ibm probably two or three. united tech and caterpillar. that is how you get to 15 to 20 points in the dow. what disturbed me today was down side because we hit a new contract high in oil, 52-week contract high in oil.

normally when this happens you get the big names in oil, chevrons and exxons move up. it didn't happen. exxon was for sale all day. it just went positive right into the close. we need a 2% to 3% move in exxon and chevron and we hit dow 20,000. this morning oil is moving up. everyone is saying exxon and chevron. that is a little bit disturbing that normal movement didn't do anything on today. where we are pushing up the dow. remember it is the financial names that are moving us and going up. you see the dow industrials. we have been side ways essentially for ten days between 19,910 and 19980 for ten days in a row. i think the most important thing everyone should realize is it is 50 points on the dow and not that important we are near essentially at historic highs. we are just shy of them on the dow jones industrial average. the momentum is on the upside.

the market is very much intact. a little technical deterioration as you go long. the longer you sit there the little bit of technical but we tend to over agonize about 50 points in the dow. my whole thing is we are fine. the market is holding up great. >> here to hold our hands a little bit. maybe hold up the market. what are you making of the trading hatern lately? and what would you be a buyer of here? >> certainly lack of sellers, but lack of buyers, too. not a lot of folks want to commit new capital at the end of the year and potentially mess up what has been a great year. you can understand that. you also understand tax implications of holding off if you believe rates will be lower as i believe they will be next year. so those two are keeping us more or less just doing what bob said. and within a 70-point range basically for the last month. it has been pretty much --

>> you still see opportunities. >> consumers are 70% of the economy. and so i'm looking at consumer discretionary doing very well and not the ones that you think in many cases, not the targets and best buys even though i like both of those names and have done well since mr. trump was president-elect. those are seasonal trades. you want to get out of them on black friday. costco continued to go up. costco also slightly higher end consumer that benefits from likes of the stock with home depot. >> that has been a favorite for a long time. >> look at year to date performance not so good. i think it is 2% to 3% year to date. a lot in the last month but only five years before that it might have been best dow stock. and now if you have consumers that get a tax break if you roll

back parts of the affordable care act to a huge employer like home depot nearly 400,000 employees and consumers fixing up their homes and things either to sell them or just enjoy it more -- >> what about nike today? it has been a lagger all year? if this is part of the thesis maybe those could do well next year? >> a lot more nike for me. >> just like home depot they buy a lot of what they are selling overseas. the strong dollar in the case of nike more than underarmer this stuff is made overseas. the dollar goes a lot further. >> big question is how much is the consumer going to really increase the spending next year. the consumer can draw upon his own savings or save a little less? if you go from six percent savings to five percent that is a big number. you are talking about several hundred billion. a lot are trying to figure out.

>> is that because they are not that optimistic about wage growth? >> with consumer confidence at these levels right now the hope is this is what bulls are trying to push through, look what will happen. they will save less because they feel better and will want to spend more. if you cut numbers from six percent to five percent savings rates these are the numbers passing around. this is how you get to earnings numbers where people are trying to figure out where we are getting to s&p 2,500 these are the numbers they are trying to figure out. >> in the meantime i have to imagine there is muscle memory about the last three januarys being weak in the markets and then the first quarter slow down in gdp and now maybe it is a pattern. i think there is on some level even though the policy implications are hopeful from a business perspective and tax perspective i don't think the market likes to be fixated on policy. i think it prefers not to have

that be the reason that you are buying even if it is potential upsides. >> maybe they are not good at figuring out various itchlications of policy. >> it is getting to the show me point. thank you both. appreciate it. president-elect trump has pledged to create jobs by rebuilding the nation's infrastructure. we break down the stocks that can be big winners. the president-elect wants to create a tax holiday that allows american companies to bring back cash from overseas. we are joined by someone who says that could result in stock buybacks and not more job creation. find out why coming up.

welcome back. infrastructure plays have been soaring since the election. they aren't the only ones set to cash in from president-elect trump's infrastructure spending plans. >> well, another way to play that trump trade is to look beyond big names, beyond caterpillars and to the smart infrastructure plays. that is companies that support emerging technologies related to more adaptive and adoptive grid system part of so-called smart grid index that climbed nine percent since the election. this is less obvious but perhaps more tech nologically advanced way especially as systems are upgraded.

take the best performer in the bask basket. it surged more than 25% since the election. also, mueller water products does advanced water meters, a technology adopted by more and more water utilities under pressure. tesla name you probably know is also part of the index and a big winner since trump's win. the thinking is that the car company pushing into self driving car technology will benefit. traditional construction and engineering companies stand to benefit from a new wave of investment. if you think that will happen under trump but the focus will be on companies that produce a sophisticated technology and serviceshat will be part of the next wave of infrastructure. the index could be one way to play it in 2017. >> certainly sounds smart. >> why not? you are putting intelligence into everything. >> you do wonder if -- remember

the whole 3 d printing craze. way up and way down. >> etf which is how you knew. they have kind of gone down and come back again without the hype. >> that is how you know. >> the dow marching closer to 20 k. we will explain why it will only take less than a $10 combined share price increase to get over the hump. president-elect trump's battle put defense stocks in the danger zone? that's coming up next when we come back. hey nico i just wanted to thay hey! for walking me through we only t for everyoneary. well, i feelrettsmar wellwe're l abt educatg op oons sttegi. ll, don't woy, n't let isccomplishm go to myd. m still thme old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictna. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading wit,

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. a record setting day on wall street. it was the nasdaq that did it. 5,486 is your closing high. the russell small caps up by about half a percent. the s&p 500 lagged a bit to 2,268. and the dow also shined not only of the record levels but barely closing higher only adding 11 points and 55 away from 20 k. it is time for a cnbc news update with tyler mathisen. >> thank you very much. here is what is happening. president obama greeting japanese prime minister abe at

pearl harbor. abe is the fourth to visit pearl harbor in the 75 years since japan attacked the hawaiien naval base put the first to visit the uss arizona memorial. secretary of state john kerry will speak tomorrow to outline next steps. palestine yn president says today the security council's action lays clear foundation for negotiations. united states decided not to block that resolution drawing strong criticism from israel. taiwan warns that the threat of our enemies is growing every day, day by day as china sent its only aircraft carrier towards the island in what is being called a routine drill amid growing south china sea tensions. that is the cnbc update at this hour. >> thank you.

we are just days away from the start of a new year and cnbc is getting at its play book of predictions. morgan brennan has a look at what to expect in the defense sector. in 2016 syria's civil war escalated, north korea tested more nukes and u.s. agencies linked russia to election-related hacks. and china will further flex its muscle in the south china sea. first it is all about the budget and the budget will increase despite sequestration. details will be key with more focus on cost deficiencies when the proposal is released. the nuclear triad could become a dyad as contractors jockey for the missile contract. the fate of the land based leg could come into question as modernization moves with the

ohio replacement subs and air force's b-21 bomber. the race to secure space will take off. call this the other infrastructure plan as pentagon fortifies a satellite system that china and russia have been developing weaponry to be able to disable. expect more contracts, more launches for boeing, lockheed and others. one wildcard, space x which finally landed a big military contract for a 2018 launch but on the heels of a falcon explosion. first it has to get back into space. so if the president-elect trump's twitter account is any indication 2017 is likely to be a very dynamic year. the defense secretary pick with the new administration has suggested that it may be time to question that three legged

delivery system for our nuclear arsenal but taking a look at tweets that have come from trump in recent days i think one thing is for certain and that is you can expect to see a big massive push towards modernization of our nuclear arsenal. the question is how much is cost going to come into play given the fact that the entire modernization process is expected to cost upwards of a trillion dollars over the next three decades. >> a ton of dough. thank you so much. president-elect trump putting defense contractors in focus as he continues to target lockheed martin and boeing over the cost of their jets. for more impact trump is having let's bring in joseph denardo. welcome. first to you, i do want to mention what has happened with the chinese ship sailing into the south china sea, there is more to it. it's a little bit of an act of

provocation. we just heard taiwan's response to that. while the president has been having these companies all of a sudden it feels as though certainly that part of the globe is heating up. >> we heard throughout the campaign some rhetoric from president-elect saying that china was a threat. china is an area that we have to focus on. now he is president-elect. we see how he deals with that. is it going to be through some of the traditional ways we have seen? is it going to be through tweets. we have seen in recent days him making some proclamations about as you heard the nuclear triad, about looking at contracts and costs of airplanes, really a very unconventional way to approach this. >> you can kind of as the analyst who follows the space see this going a number of ways.

the other the global times, it's chinese run tabloid. the chinese fleet will cruise to the eastern pacific sooner or later. with something like that out there it almost seems to argue that the u.s. might need much more spending on the military. how do you analyze the situation? >> i think historically if you look at defense spending with what is driven is the threat level. i think the threat level remains high. trump has been pretty bullish about what he wants to do with rebuilding our national security and i think that will lead to higher defense spending. i think the question now is where does it go? does it go to the army, navy or air force? our view is it is directed more at the navy and air force. he is focussed more on projecting power more than fighter wars. that favors names like lockheed more so than general dynamics which has more exposure to the

army. >> will we see these tweets by trump highlighting the kind of dollar cost of some of the programs and you see investors try to figure out if there is anything much behind that in the way of scrutiny of defense budgets. what is the feeling out there about whether there is really a lot of fat to cut for the objectives that the pentagon has out there? >> there is a lot of uncertainty about what this means but there is a feeling in the pentagon that they have gotten very lean. you saw quite a bit of pushback when trump made comments about the f-35. you heard folks saying this is not a program that is out of control costs. we have worked again. there is concern in the defense community that they have already made cuts and had to deal with sequestration and had to deal with smaller defense budgets and there is not a lot of waste to find now. it is going to need more money and more taxes and we need to

get the money somewhere if the modernization plans are going to come true. >> finally, who do you think are the best names in the space for the way this all started to come to shape? >> we still like lockheed. the name has pulled back recently based on tweets from mr. trump. i think once the aircraft proves superiority that cost gap will look less important. if you look out three or four years that cost gap starts to narrow as volumes start to go up. we think this is just near term headline risk associated with the biggest program that eventually goes away. >> what about the companies themselves? would you differentiate the space or just kind of continue to trade it broadly? >> i think to the extent that defense spending does start to go up there will be a rising tide effect within the large cap names. we like lockheed martin the most given weakness around f-35.

further down another one we think is well positioned to benefit from a focus on the air force. so those are the two names we like the most here. >> and do you think that the pendulum will move towards less defense spending or towards more because there will be events maybe overseas that provoke that? >> the president-elect has made it clear that he thinks the military budget is too small. he wants to see more defense spending. the question is can he get congress to go along with them even if republican control of both chambers he has to get democrats to sign off and has to find a deal and some of those deals may mean bigger deficits which could repel republicans, too. his goal is to increase defense spending but we will see if he can actually get the deal done. >> one of the big ifs at this point. thank you both. >> thank you. companies hold estimated $2 trillion overseas.

should we break that down by cash and asset? president-elect trump says he wants a tax holiday so companies can bring back that money and create new jobs. will they use it for dividends and stock buybacks instead? plus amazon's echo is one of the holiday's hottest tech items. there is a new reason you may need to be careful about what you say around it. we'll tell you coming up on "closing bell."

top trump aid backing out of the incoming administration as some key positions do remain unfilled. john harwood has the latest on the trump transition. >> jason miller did decide to back out from the job as communications director after another trump aid raised questions of personal scandal surrounding him, haven't gotten much clarity on exactly what that is about. aj delgado called him the john edwards of 2016. there are cabinet picks that donald trump has not filled yet, v.a., agriculture department. the ones that he has filled are creating some concern about potential confirmation issues. rex tillerson, the exxon mobil ceo will face resistance over his relationship with russia as a proxy for broader and for the fact that he heads an oil

company and oil companies aren't that popular. steve mnuchin faces blow back for the fact that he is a former financial executive saying he was going to stand up to wall street and be the representative of blue collar voters in the united states. and finally tom price who is the choice to be secretary of health and human services is someone who will not face issues of wealth or corporate involvement. he will face issues surrounding his past support for efforts to fundamentally change medicare. paul ryan, house speaker, shares his view on those issues but donald trump said during the campaign he wasn't going to touch medicare. this suggests the democrats will have a fertile field of choices to try to pick some targets. they may be able to stop some if they hold together and take as few as three republican defectors they can beat somebody on a majority vote. we'll see beginning in january

whether they are going to be able to succeed in that. >> it is coming up quick. thank you. donald trump has promised to focus on jobs as the 45th president of the u.s. one of his tactics is a corporate tax holiday to help spur job creation. will it work? leslie picker writes not necessarily in her latest piece. she joins us now. so does larry kudlow join us. he is cnbc contributor and informal trump adviser. leslie, what to you think will happen with this tax holiday? skbl talking to dozens of bankers focussed on this stuff and speaking to people is that executives are looking at this influx of cash, maybe a trillion dollars worth of the 2 trillion trapped overseas as a way to do m&a. that has been true in past tax holidays. so they are expecting more of the same this time. >> what do you think is going to happen with this holiday?

>> i just think repate reeuation of cash is absolutely terrific. however corporations use it in the united states is a good thing, not a bad thing. you will unlock cash and put new cash in investor hands whether dividends, whether shareholder buybacks or if it is m&a. you will re-oxygen ate the entire economy. look at this. go through this with george w. bush which had a small run for one year, $300 million. look at the job impact. the so-called jobless recovery 2013 nothing. 2003. 2004 when this tax law went into place 2 million new jobs created. in 2005, 2.5 million jobs were created. in 2006, 2.1 million.

in other words, you had an increase in both the economy and in job creation, more money creates more capital formation. this is so simple. there shouldn't be a debate. >> it is hard to disentangle that from the general recovery that was happening. >> that is exactly my point. you don't know. all i know is this. more money is going to come through the private economy one way or another. that money is not going into a mattress. it is going to be reinvested. i call it reoxygenation. it is a five dollar word and very important for a big economy. >> if there is a reason to do it for efficiency sake because it does make sense to allow companies to be indifferent as to where they hold their profits and cash that makes sense. to pin it to cyclical effect i think it is a question mostly because it is a very small

number of very large companies that hold the vast majority of that cash overseas. they do not lack for cash to do anything they want to do. they can borrow whatever they want and invest today. the question is can you expect much to happen even if they bring it over to lower tax? >> you say here that merger bankers are sharpening pencils. is the implication here that it is one or the other? if the money comes back they are saying we are going to plow it into deals and that means job cuts. is there a way to have both of these things? >> there is one of four options that companies can look at. number one is m&a. that has been number one use of the cash. merger bankers are rubbing their hands together. number two, they can repay debt which would make, of course, the credit rating agencies happy. number three, they could invest in r&d and cap x in business and

they can return that capital to shareholders through repurchases or dividends. historically in previous tax holidays they have made that a forbidden use of the cash but the problem has been it is difficult to track what cash has come in from abroad versus what they are using for dividends and repurcha repurchases. >> 300 million one, it is not clear that it is going to be 1 or $2 trillion in size. >> it's going to be a trillion, maybe 2 trillion or 3 trillion. the estimates are all over the place. you can't just isolate this. funds are fungible. that is what is so silly about this. m&a is not necessarily a job killer. it might be but it might spark a lot of new jobs depending on whether it is new research and development. here is my broader point. what trump has here is a massive tax reform plan. he is slashing the tax rate on

large and small companies. he is repatrioting trillions of dollars. he is going to have immediate expensing for new investment. in totality this cuts the cost of capital and it is going to generate a tremendous reenerg e reenergizing of the economy which we haven't had in years. my basic point is the war on business is coming to an end. and i don't need little nit-picking studies to show that none of which have credibility whatsoever. >> leslie, i'll give you the final word. seeing the excitement in the market that is on anticipation of this where do you think this hits the reality of the road ahead? >> i think bringing cash back to the united states is by all measures good for the united states. i'm not saying it is something that will be detrimental to the economy by any means. i would say the worst case scenario would by loss of revenue to the u.s. government which depending on how you feel

about the budget deficit could be an issue. in terms of the economy it could definitely be an engine here. the question, of course, is what exactly do those board rooms decide when it comes to deploying that cash and how much does are counting on you, larry. they are counting on you -- >> the question is not what the boardrooms do. i beg your pardon. the question is what millions and millions of investors around the world do, when the united states wins the global race for capital. we will become an investment destination a number one in many, many years and the econ y economy, it's a big plus. >> we hear you. we hear you. investors show it to you. thank you for joining us. >> show us the money. exactly, larry cudlow and the dow. albeit slightly, we'll look how much of a price increase among

the dow 30 stocks it will take to get over the threshold and amazon echo's device helping to questions and do all sorts of things, now police want to use that to give answers about a murder. those details coming up. this i. retiring retirir. d i never get tired i are you entire prepar to tire? plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement with e*trade. are you entire prepar to tire? 'm in ves as avest investor s invest wite*trade, whe investors cainvestate d invest in vests... or notn vests. sign up attrade.d get up to sindred dolls. wi your bune be ready when gwth presents itsf? erananxpss open cards cahelpak, fill a g orde

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it will take a price change around $8 from dow cop phomponeo get us there. eric is here to understand. >> the $8 is the key. getting the dow to 50,000, 55 points away from today's close. let's talk about what means in share prices. $8.03 to be exact. that's based on how the index was originally created and averaged across the companies. another point to remember because of the $8 can come from any of the 30 stocks, since every dollar is worth the same in the index, no matter which stock provided it's not a market cap weighted induction bex but obviously, not every company is worth the same. here is how it works if one company moves the dow to 20 k. $8 more in traveler stock is worth $2.3 billion and $8 move in goldman sachs would be worth

under $5 billion. these stocks have high share prices but relatively low market caps. you can imagine a small trade pushing higher and moving the index up in a big way. look at the other extreme. companies with low share prices and high market caps is where finding $8 will be very difficult for ge an $8 increase per share would be worth $71 billion. for microsoft it's $62 billion and for pfizer it's 49. think about those numbers, big and small as we approach 20 k. it's only $8 but depending where it's coming from, that's going to be really easy or really difficult of a task. >> coal on travelers. have you memorized six digits? >> 16. >> devisor. >> 26 cents per stock.

>> 26 2/3. >> privacy advocates has one of the best selling devices this holiday season. why you need to be quite careful what you say around amazon's echo when we come back. ♪ i always feel like somebody's watching me ♪ i amping hospitals personize treatments using billions of data poi of diabetes,ou in advance.di tw and i amamorking with orreco to use biorker data to boo the performance e athletes. llo,y name is watson. working gether, wecan outt.

if you're one of the many people that received an amazon echo, you better be careful. a prosecutor in arkansas issued a warrant for amazon to turnover recordings from an echo belonging to a man accused of murder. amazon has handed over account and purchase information. it's declined to give echo data. the prosecutor says he's not currently pursuing amazon to compile but do they -- do they have this information then? is it a case of we literally don't have it or actually have all of it? >> it seems from what i can tell amazon is not claiming that they don't have access to the data that they just choose not to surrenderer it. it's amazing, i think the movie script writes itself because it happens with every new wave of technology of telephones, answering machines and becomes a plot point in real crimes and films. >> it goes back to the apple issue, all of a sudden you have a place that's a repost tory of information that you ultimately have to get access to, right? >> prosecutors and law

enforcement don't say well, we never used to have access to this information so let's leave it aside. >> somebody murdered in my family, we would want to know everything that device knows. >> the courts will probably have to figure that out. >> for sure. mike, did you get one for christmas? >> no, i'll wait until they work this out. >> me, neither. >> "fast money" starts right now. >> "fast money" starts now. waiting for dow 20,000 quietly, the nasdaq hitting a record high, with tech the best performing sector in the market. the two best performers today on the dow were apple and cisco so will it be tech that finally gets us to dow 20,000 this week and is tech the next big leg of the trump trade? pete, let's kick it off with you. >> yes, it is. yes, it's a combination of technology and financials, the financials slowed down and a huge massive run up and paused and as they have paused, we