in the market, investors have been placing their bets. thanks for being here. >> thank you, marc. >> marc lasry. place where people have been placing their bets right on top of what you just talked about, how the metals and mining? take a look at gold, silver. >> good stuff. thanks, guys. "power" starts now. good afternoon, everybody. i'm tyler mathisen. buy the election, sell the inauguration. that is what one big bank is telling its clients. also ahead, big battle in washington over obamacare. today on capitol hill in a big way. why one analyst is sending out a big warning over hospital stocks. they could be big losers in this. the president-elect fired him.

kiss' gene simmons is here. we rock every day on "power lunch" which starts right now. >> welcome to "power lunch." i'm melissa lee. stocks holding in the green for the second day after the best day of the three indexes in three months. last time the dow kicked off a new year with back-to-back gains, 2006, brian. >> pretty cool stat there. investigators are looking into the cause of a serious long island railroad derailment in new york city earlier today. more than 100 people were injured. meantime parts of the south are still cleaning up after a string of deadly tornadoes ripped across the alabama coast. >> and mortgage applications tumbling a full 12% last week. refinancings were the bulk of that. release the latest fed meeting minutes were out in just under one hour from now.

we begin with the markets and this seemingly internal hunt for dow 20,000. i love melissa's stat about the first back-to-back gains to start the new year, bob. but is anybody buying into this? >> yes, they are. let's look at the dow movers today, brian. buy the losers and sell the winners at the beginning of the year. they're buying everything, though. home depot and nike were l laggards last year. goldman sachs are also up on the year. johnson & johnson lagging but you get the point. they're buying a lot of things. laggards, hope you were listening to phil lebeau. gm hit the ball out of the ballpark here. ford was also up. they thautd they we they thought they were going to be down. laggards moving on the upside. they're also buying the big winners in 2016. usually you try to sell them. gold miners were big winners,

steel, oil and gas. they're all up again in the first two trading days. the s&p is up about 1.3%. basically this group is also outperforming here. here is where we are in the middle of the day, second trading day of the year. 5-1, advancing the decline. dow not representing how strong. mo more stocks advancing than declining, second day in a row. leaders, banks, materials and industrials, cyclical groups that led the group up in november and most of december. volume on the moderate side right now. nobody is rushing to buy. bottom line is nobody is rushing to sell anything. everybody wants the market to drop 5%. not so they can get out, so they can buy more. the trend still intact -- the up trend still intact. back to you. >> bob thank you very much. investors, speaking about trends, bought billions in stocks the past two months or so. but if you bought the election, should you now sell the inauguration? that is the gist of what morgan stanley is advising clients to do. kind of. morgan stanley's chief u.s.

equities strategist, adam parker. you are not bearish by any means. your bullishness is tempered by the fact that you think most of the gains are already priced in. on what do you base that? and what kind of year do you think we're going to have? >> for me it's been a big inflection point in my thinking. you have really low earnings growth. price to earnings ratio where it would expand. now we have a completely different view, much higher earnings growth embedded in our forecast, lower taxes, stimulus, repatriation, et cetera. we're assuming that that price to earnings ratio starts to contract and offset the earnings. if you have more active fed, more uncertainty, have you risks outside the u.s. i think this year is a bit of a tension of higher earnings, lower multiples and that's a new regime. >> and energy is the one group you seem a little more optimistic on. you're boosting your sector

rating. is that purely just on the fact that oil prices have come back up, adam, or is there any kind of a political element to that call? >> two or three elements. a few other overweights besides energy. we upgraded energy to start the year yesterday. the logic is a bit of a pair trade. we downgraded industrials yesterday. more neutral on energy. we upgraded it. it's more what's priced in. you have had a lot of talk about a huge stimulus program impacting some of the industrial companies. and a lot of them are up 40, 50, 60% since early november. with energy, i highly doubt you're going to get ownerous regulation. you hear earnings, some of the oil service companies will start to talk about pricing go up. stocks are up a lot. i don't think fundamentals will look very good or incrementally better and the stimulus could be several quarters off. the other group, energy, i don't think people's sentiment is that

high there. it's a pretty good kind of pair trade idea. >> adam, from my great cloud of unknowing, it feels to me that there's a lot of anticipation built into current stock prices. >> right. >> particularly anticipation on what may happen on corporate taxes. >> yes. >> the devil here is in the details, i would guess. and that is we don't know what's going to happen to interest deductions for corporations. >> right. >> we don't really know what's going to happen to capital expensing and depreciating of new equipment. >> right. >> a lot could get sort of gummed up in this, right? >> i get asked about corporate earnings, spent a lot of my meetings with investors talking about the path, 18% higher earnings in 2018 in our model versus 2016. we talk a lot about the path to get there. part of reason i've gotten more cautious than bullish, we're

assuming statutory ra-- pretty optimistic set of assumptions. i think you're right. it's a nonvariable problem we're always trying to isolate to one. the buy as is thias is that peo if you're looking for that fake gauge, what am i going to gauge to fade the rally? any signs of washington gridlock or things taking longer would be on that list. right now, people think that the republican sweep means a lot will get done anyway hurry. a lot of that has gotten priced in, in a had your. >> i your forecast for 2016 is a couple percent from where we are right now. >> right. >> in that environment, though, why is energy your best defense and why do you expect energy to relatively out perform in a market that's going to basically grind slightly higher to sideways? >> well, obviously, there's no

historical evidence that energy has to go up with beta -- to the market, plenty of years the market is down and energy is up. a lot of it is fueled by the oil price. my general view is that the oil market is healing. 18 months of probability, oil is $10 higher, certainly higher than the probability, that it's $10 lower. that, combined with sentiment and january earnings, fundamentals and price better for services, fuels my more optimistic view. your comments about regulation i think that's probably even more benign. we're also overweight health care, in particular biotech. we have a bit of a different tenor to that trade at least with ten hours of evidence this year. biotech, to me, is mispriced innovation and the spectrum of m & a to help that group, health care. and rates don't back up to the moon, also over utilities, which i like a lot relative to staples on a pair trade.

they don't have currency exposure and are certainly a lot cheaper per unit. you have to be more prudent. we're six, seven years in an upturn here. >> adam, great to see you. adam harper, morgan stanley. >> happy new year. >> same to you. trader in chief, if you want to call him that, is taking aim at obamacare and thanking ford for keeping jobs in the united states. we have a new appointment to tell you about. john harwood is live, where the rain has stopped, outside of trump tower. john? >> reporter: thank goodness, tyler. it's a much more pleasant day today than yesterday. we had some conventional news from donald trump today, president-elect announcing that jay clayton, long-time wall street lawyer is his choice for the exchange and securities commission. reversing his rhetoric about draining the swamp, challenging

wall street, taking on the corrupt establishment i would not expect that would prevent jay clayton from winning approval to take that job as chair of the s.e.c. donald trump has been making most of his news via twitter. he has been firing off tweets and driving the news cycle. first of all, last night, he sent out a tweet, widening the wedge between him and the intelligence community putting the word intelligence in quotes and saying his briefing had been delayed till friday, suggesting it was perhaps because the intel community wanted to get their story straight and said it was very strange. today, widening it still further with a tweet siding with julian assange, a fugitive from american justice in the london embassy for the country of ecuador, taken asylum there. he said donald trump repeated his statements in an interview

on fox where julian assange said it could have been a 14-year-old and not necessarily russia hacking those u.s. election accounts of the democrats. that's one thing. secondly on ford, on the economy. he tried to take credit for the good news that ford announced yesterday, which is that it's not going to take $1.6 billion invested in mexico. instead it's going to invest in the united states. he thanked ford. of course, he raised that issue during the campaign. finally, he tried to avoid blame on behalf of himself and republicans on the issue of obamacare. this is very interesting. republicans are moving very rapidly to try to appeal obamacare. he waited republicans must be careful in that the democrats are to blame. it would fall on its own weight he said. whether that represents any weakening of donald trump's

commitment to repeal obamacare we'll watch closely and in the senate. house it's sure to pass. in the senate it will be interesting, especially since donald trump is suggesting that may not be a good idea because of blowback, particularly on the republicans. >> john harwood, thank you. ahead on the "power lunch" menu, ton of upgrades and downgrades on restaurant stops, what analysts like and don't like and one customer's beef with wendy's that prompted them to fire back on twitter.

welcome back. phil lebeau is live in san francisco with all the numbers. hey, phil. >> melissa, this was a huge month when you look at december for auto industry and all of 2016. generally speaking as you look at the major automakers almost all of them reported better than expected sales in the month of december. general motors up 10%. look at nissan up 9.7%. by the way, nissan, honda, porsche, you're looking at automakers or brands that posted all-time records for 2016. when you look at the strong december, all of 2016 looks to be a new record high for u.s. auto sales. in 2015 it was 7.46 million.

just fractionally higher but nonetheless higher than in 2015 and we'll get that official number coming up a little bit later this afternoon. you do not want to miss what we have in store for you next hour on power lunch. power lunch exclusive, sitting down with the chairman and ceo carlos gohn. we're going for a ride with him out here in sunnyvale where nissan is showing us the latest iteration of automomoautonomous >> where are you right now in sunnyvalle sunnyvale? >> i want to make sure you're not at a nissan building because we've got a jeep, a chrysler -- >> no, no, it's an industry park here. bunch of different companies around here. it's just a generic parking lot behind me. >> just a parking lot, brian.

in rainy sunnyvale. >> doesn't look so sunny. >> not at all. phil, let's talk tesla here. up by about 4%. delivery numbers for the quarter as well as the full year 2016. but, hey, look at the shiny new factory starting to make batteries. >> battery cell production, the news that tesla announced today, that along with the fact that there are analysts taking a tour today, sitting down with elon musk, that helped shares today. and all the auto stocks are generally doing well over the last couple of months. just a couple of months ago that tesla shares were down, what, in that 190, 185 range? >> yeah. >> where are they at now, 220, 225, in that range? you combine that investor conference, if you will today, happening in nevada, along with the news about battery cell

production. there is some of that optimism that investors are jumping on to. >> more than 18 million auto sales pace. that's a heck of a number for december as you report this had morning. >> yep. >> so-called competitor a lot of people were watching that and it didn't exactly have the biggest hit. do you think that's boosting tesla? >> no. people are looking at the companies that are announcing prototypes or what they plan to eventually build. i think there's a bit of a yawn. we heard this before. i can list a number of companies where i've heard we're going to start production in 2015, 2017. where are they now? still in the planning process. i'm not sure people are looking at faraday future and saying oh, yeah, their struggles or

perceived struggles is good news for tesla. i think they're trading independent of that. >> cash crunch in november. real skepticism around faraday. look forward to the drive along with carlos gohn next hour. amazon is working hard to expand its footprint in your home. is the company winning the battle for your home? we'll take a look next. gpeca on s rdicr op

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tw welcome back to "power lunch." universal studios had to close its gates because of record-breaking attendance. increasing foot traffic at its theme parks thanks in part to new traction like the fast and furious super charged ride and truly amazing -- i tell you, i've been on it. it's something else. wizarding world of harry potter. shares of comcast, parent company of universal and cnbc, up 20% over the last year. amazon's not stopping at tvs. they're partnering with whirlpool to develop voice-enabled smart appliances. what's the grand plan here? let's bring in the lead analyst of rbc capital markets and senior editor at ricoh. how cool could these devices be, steven, and how smart could they actually be? >> a lot of this is about

marketing on the side of the appliance makers. for amazon they think they're creating the operating system for the home. they're going to try any way they can to get into the device in the home, whether it's a tv, an appliance. long term, i think you would expect every device to get smarter rather than not. this is just the beginning. real smart over the long haul. right now we're seeing sort of basic level integration with alexa. >> right. mark, what's your take on what's happening here in terms of moving the needle for amazon? i imagine you have a $950 price target on the stock. i'm guessing about two-thirds of it is retail and one-third is aws? in the long run where do you see this falling in the revenue stream? >> so, yeah, we have about half of the value of the company actually is now aws. >> half, okay. >> very strong half of the value. half of the value is retail. alexa is one of the most

interesting innovations we've seen out of amazon in quite some time. it's not only connected but it's also a stand-alone device. as far as our tracking it looks like they sold out of the echo devices. not the dots but out of the echo during the holiday season. close to 10 million of alexa devices nall what our survey data found is a quarter of people who have these devices end up purchasing more from amazon. that's kind of the long-term win here for amazon. it's a customer acquisition tool but a customer retention tool and a chance for people to more easily remove the friction, purchase more from amazon and amazon seems to be further along than any other company in this so far. >> we've seen before, jason, you don't have to be first to the game in order to win the game. we've seen apple entering late in the music market then they ended up owning the music market. what companies have a shot at what amazon seems to have? >> you can't ignore google or

discount them. their competitor has just come out. head start amazon has gotten, it's more than 6,000 skills already on the platform. developers are gravitating to it quickly. it's a big head start. there are reports that apple will work on and come out with its own device. i would expect them to be fierce competitors. head start is big right now. >> forgive me for being dumb in a world of smart homes and smart appliances but i fail, frankly, to see the real convenience in having alexa control my washing machine. >> i completely agree. >> i don't get it. >> you just turned on somebody's washing machine. >> i hope i did because i still have to go down and put the laundry in the washing machine. >> until the robots, but yes. >> until the robot is there to do that. >> put the clothes in the drier.

>> and i'm sure, mark, i'm not going to be able to remember what the damn command is to do the extra spin cycle or whatever the hell it is i want it to do! >> you're right. >> so how much extra convenience is this really? >> i think for the integration with home appliances, that will work for a small percentage of households today. i don't think that's material as part of really the long term or the -- >> god, i'm glad to hear someone say that. i've heard a lot of smoke being blown out over the smart phone, smart home and all of that stuff. i'm glad to hear somebody say this isn't all that big a deal. >> what is a big deal, though, is the integration of the basic things that people want to do. that's the advantage that amazon has. when you're in a home you want to be able to easily play music. >> yes. >> when you're in a home you easily want to be able to get information about weather. >> yes. >> when you're in a home one of the things that amazon does is get the products you want quicker so you don't have to drive to the store, go to the pc and start typing. >> yes. >> you can do it through voice

commands. this will take a while for consumers to change their patterns but we think it's a trojan horse for amazon, frankly, into the refrigerator. one of these devices -- >> open up a trojan horse into the invasion of your privacy mierks colleagues here among them. >> hacking. >> we have to give a shout out to our company, comcast. x1 system, that's voice activated. apple tv. >> but it doesn't order paper towels also. >> ooh. >> or turn on your -- >> i disconnected mine. i had this stuff and took it out because i didn't see a benefit and ended up integrating with the xfinity system. i'm not saying that because i'm a comcast employee. >> my 3-year-old is now running around the house yelling commands to alexa. if that's the way they're trained to grow up, be careful. >> be careful. >> good point. jason, ed, mark, thank you very much. i don't know who ed is. it's getting ugly over here. >> alex's brother.

>> eddie, order me some cigars and lighter fluid. we're going up in smoke! democrats are coming out firing over the future of health care. the latest and why if you own hospital stocks you might want to pay close attention. eddie, keep on "power lunch." we're back in two. you do all this research

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hi, everybody. i'm sue herrera. dylann roof is making a statement in the opening phase of his trial. is he representing himself and he said he would not lie and there's nothing wrong with him psychological. prosecutors are seeking the death penalty. rex tillerson severing ties with exxonmobil through a $180 million retirement package. if confirmed he will surrender more than 2 million shares. the company would make a cash payment equivalent to those shares and place it in a trust. he will give up about $7 million compare d with what he would hae been paid, had he retired in march as planned. more problems with the

washington monument, which has been shut down due to elevator problems. this time, the lights at the top of the monument have gone out. officials believe there's a problem with the automated program that controls the lights. school resource officer in north carolina has been placed on leave after this video posted online appears to show him picking up and slamming a high school female student to the ground. he has been assigned to the school since it opened in 2013. that's the news update this hour. brian, i'll send it back to you. >> sue, thank you very much. let's get back down to the markets and get a check on stocks. at some point we are going to hit dow 2000. will it be today? will we get that famous yates 2:00 pm lift? >> in honor of christina yates. >> our producer, who has called this an inside joke. oil trading higher up, ford and gm leading the s&p 500 on the

back of those extremely, who could have predicted, strong auto sales numbers, those stocks both up about 5%. bruising battle for the future of obamacare is front and center on capitol hill today. aamon javers is following all the news on capitol hill. eamon? >> with president obama himself coming to the hill to rally democrats who will have to defend obamacare after president obama leaves office later this month. we also had the vice president-elect, mike pence coming up here to talk to republicans, making the case that they need to repeal obamacare as quickly as possible. here is what pence had to say. >> the first order of business is to repeal and replace obamacare. that was our message today. it will be our message on capitol hill. and it needs to be done. >> not so fast say democrats. nancy pelosi came to the cameras

and made the case that republicans could be inheriting a world of trouble if they repeal obamacare and don't replace it with something that really works for their voters. here is what she said. >> you know, almost half of medicaid is about long-term health care. you want grandma living in the guest room? you repeal the affordable care act. >> the question is whether that political logic is starting to percolate among republicans up here on the hill. i talked to members of congress today, republicans seem very anxious to get moving on this campaign promise. they put out a long time ago on the campaign trail they want to do this quickly. you saw these tweets, tyler, from donald trump himself this morning, maybe making the case in his twitter feed it might be the best thing to do to wait a little bit on replacing obamacare, given that the democrats now own the political blame for what he calls the failure of obamacare. he is making the point that republicans ought to be very cautious here. the minute they step in with their own alternative, they will

then own the political credit or blame for whatever happens next. tyler? >> thank you very much, eamon javers on capitol hill. with the fate of obamacare up on the hill, dangerous time for investing in health care stocks. let's bring in cheryl. is it simply too hard to figure out what's going to happen so therefore you need to stay away? what does your coverage look like in terms of your buys, sells and holds? >> obviously since i have a pretty cautious if not very concerned view of the impact of the repeal or potential repeal of the aca in its entirety or in part, my view is essentially a negative one. i've got one bi-rated stock, united health group, health care transformation story. it is a leading player in driving down the cost of care but, more importantly, moving the model of care forward. so i really like that.

and i think its diversification and its positioning is unique enough to help it sustain and, in fact, be a thought leader throughout this period of what we expect to be extreme uncertainty. this is not a normal uncertain situation but rather an abnormal one on the brink of great change. on the other hand for the hospitals, we're very concerned. we have two under performed ratings, the first one being tenet health care. the situation there, as well as with community and aca, lifepoint and others is that not only do you have this particular risk, which is extreme, but underlying it all, you have a very dramatic decline in in-patient volumes and now growth rate in emergency room visits, all that we think are the results of changes being led by companies like united health group and some of the policies under obamacare. given that we think that train

left the station, value-based care and focus on dramatic reductions and cost have taken over, no matter what happens politically -- we think what happens politically is bad -- we would stay away from the hospital group. >> what is the worst case scenario? under that, what happens to those cell-rated stocks? >> right. the worst case scenario is just a plain, simple, full repeal without the republicans coming up with an adequate replacement. there have been estimates even if you allowed people to buy insurance across state lines, you would only cover 2.5 to, at most 3 million to those insured. >> they don't want to pull the rug out from anybody. >> they say that but then they proffer these solutions that if you do the math as the rand corporation has done suggests to you that you could end up with very few of the 20 million who have received coverage being re-insured. part of the reason here is because of what could happen to

medicaid. if you have medicaid blocked grants, repeal or adversary impact the medicaid expansion, this is where most of the publicly traded companies have made their money. it's resulted in significant reductions in no paid heads or beds. based on analysis we've done grew by $10 billion in the first year or more than 11%. that was stunning. take that away, it's bad. >> it's really the rollback of medicaid, which was part -- the expansion of which was part of the aca, and not the repeal of the acc -- atlantic coast conference. the aca per se that is the biggest risk to the hospitals? >> you know, that is a very significant part of the gain that they had and would be a very significant loss to the industry. no question about it. but the exchanges have also been positively impacted.

any time you get someone going from a no pay head to a paying head, that was good. so the call was easy. it was reform is good for hospitals by hospitals. now the call should be just as easy. reform going away is bad for hospitals. don't buy hospitals. it's that simple. >> what's the reaction of the hospital stocks you cover? tenet health care, do they call you every day and say, shaieryl you have this wrong? >> companies are very respectful of opinions of analysts. i've been the wicked witch of the east on hospital stocks before and i've been their best friends at times. they understand what we're trying to do is help investors to determine the ultimately unknowable. no one knows what will happen. that's not unusual in our market. we all know how to mitigate risk. the problem is, we don't even know what the shape of this risk curve looks like anymore. >> right. sheryl -- >> until the republicans come up

with an answer that's our answer. >> sheyl skolnick, thank you. drug prices are weighing on the industry right now, and the controversy swirling thereabouts. meg tirrell is with us. >> competition should bring prices down, particularly among generic drugs. we delved into the story about opiods and a drug that could reverse opiod addiction. a drug that's been available since 1971. you take a look at some of the prices of two of those drugs,ual four of them going in tandem, they follow similar patterns. over time of a drug now owned by pfizer, mapped against the price of a drug from amphastar. when you look at the rest of the

drugs in the class, they're all priced about the same, between $15 and $20 per milligram. now, this is turning into a problem for some public health agencies. we visited baltimore, talked with their health commissioner. take a listen to this. >> this is very challenging, because we do not want for cities or states or any individuals to be priced out of the ability to save lives. why is it that a generic medication available by the pennies in other countries has suddenly jumped up price. >> why some of these prices may have gone up, pfizer said from the time naloxone entered their portfolio, the focus has been on providing action toes this life-saving treatment. they provide up to 1 million doses over four years and a million in grants to five starts. amphastar said they do their manufacturing in california where material and labor costs have gone up.

they're investing in r & d to bring an intra-nasal product to the market. and they have rebate agreements with 11 different states. it's a complicated situation here. public health officials still saying this is a problem for them. people look at the price of these generic drugs and say this is less than $20 a dose. new formulations on the market which we're talking about the rest of today and tomorrow. you can read more about that at cnbc.com. >> so glad to see you're doing something on this epidemic. it's a national crisis especially in rural communities that very few are talking about t now police officers are carrying naloxone because overdoses are so problematic, they're carrying that along with their night sticks and everything else. it's become a routine part of many of their uniform. >> you're absolutely right. policemen and firefighters. we went to new mexico and met with firefighters who say they want to carry this stuff. sometimes they're the first people on the scene in a medical

emergency, one of four essential drugs they carry, others being the epi-pen. we're examining this in "closing bell" today. >> look forward to that, meg. >> thanks, guys. daily dose of investment opportunities just for you today. oil and some big money calls in street talk coming up next.

susan li with who the analysts like or don't. >> prefer, i like that word. restaurant sales in 2016, according to numura securities, only negative month industry wide last year, weather was a large part to blame as frigid temperatures affected northern parts of the united states. and that's a turn around from the strong november, the second best month last year for

restaurants. they say the family dining and casual dining segments fared the worst. you think of ihop, denny's and appleby's. strong on the u.s. dollar. meantime an upgrade on panera bread by oppenheimer who says you can't ignore their digital and delivery model which is ramping up business and dunkin brands has been downgraded by jeffries, calling the stock price expensive after a weaker holiday season. both jeffries and oppenheimer rate jack in the box as one of their top restaurant picks. this story is lighting up the internet. it sells 554 million of their deep fried tacos each year. that's a little more than 1,000 a minute. for comparison, mcdonald's in 2007 was selling roughly the same number of big macs ten years ago. jack in the box number may sound big but in comparison to its

larger competitors -- >> 1,000 fried tacos a minute? >> 1,055 to be exact. >> that's just amazing. sue, thank you very much. appreciate it. melissa, time for street talk. >> just sounds disgusting. >> they come with a lot of other item. >> deep fried taco comes with other items? >> $4.99, burger, fries, whatever and a deep fried taco. not that i speak from experience. >> are you saying there's no demand for the taco specifically? >> i don't know about jack in the box taco demand. let's move on. >> street talk on deck here. stocks you need to know about. blackstone, credit suisse outperforming $37 price over the next 3 1/2 years. it could trade around $60. key to the investment inability to raise products. drains similar level of capital to its four largest competitors combined. blackstone trades with a high

yield. >> i think this is dirty. did you say 60? that's double. >> double. >> wow! second stock is noble corp, offshore driller. this is ne, not the on-shore driller. upgrades it to their focus list basically for three reasons. number one, they've got increased concern or i should say increased focus on better long-term metrics, noble's recent deal with shell to set a floor on the rates of 15 years of the backlog and noble corp new debt that was recently issued. heikkinen also noted net asset value that they can remember. uk based offshore driller not the u.s. based one that's heavy into oklahoma. by the way, goldman sachs recently issued a sell on noble corp. a little battle in the offshore space. >> yep. third stock here, afrom bank of

america, altria current tax rate is about 33.5%. stronger u.s. economy and commercialization of its new product in 2017 could help. part of this call b of a in part because of the stronger u.s. dollar which will hurt. 100% of the revenue is overseas. they like domestic smoking, dislike foreign smoking. pennsylvania based maker of electronic instruments cowen upgrades ametek. it goes from 62 to 64. key markets are stabilizing. new management is, quote, settling in and believe it will be a piece of your longer term thesis. less than 10% possible downside on the stock. that $62 target on ame is about 25% upside. >> tyler? next inside folks on what

it's like to do business with donald trump from someone who has been fired by the president-elect. he also happens to be in the rock 'n' roll hall of fame. gene simmons joins us on power lunch. where is he? here he comes. the great man here. how about a kiss? hey at k atatheve

welcome back to "power lunch." 15 days to go until donald trump's inauguration. our next guest is not a wall street guy or analyst but does know what it's like to do business with the president-elect. he spent some time in the board room with him on the nbc show ""celebrity apprentice"." mr. trump even fired him. welcome to rock 'n' roll hall of famer gene simmons. >> good morning. >> it's afternoon. >> it's afternoon for you. it's all relative. it's morning for me. >> what's it like to work alongside donald trump? >> he is a fascinating man. love him, hate him. there are very few individuals, most human beings are lemings.

you're afraid of not wearing the right tie, right shirt. we all tend to dress in outfits and i am an individual. i wear sunglasses in the middle of the night because the sun never sets on planet cool, folks. and that's where i live. >> corey hart. >> i'm sorry, who is that? >> sunglasses at night. didn't you guys cover that? >> no. >> no. >> and welcome to cnbc. >> gene simmons, your new co-host of "power lunch." >> who is corey hart? >> i don't think i've ever seen you blush. >> i think you should try this on. >> there you go. that's good. >> no, it doesn't look good. >> so, what is the -- >> you don't belong on planet cool. >> the stuff i saw in those glasses. >> what is the most admirable quality he brings to the table? and what is the one that you felt approximate most uncomfortable? >> i'm sorry to interrupt.

>> it's all right. i do it all the time. >> i hear this little voice. let's not kid ourselves. the reason we're talking about president-elect trump is because he's the president-elect. and before then, you've got to give him kudos. the guy is in it to win it. he is not a political animal and really doesn't care about what you think of how he does stuff. he has no filter it seems and maybe a large segment of the population has been waiting for someone who just says what he wants to say, good, bad or otherwise. is it smart, is it not? i'll leave it up for you to decide. i will tell you one observation since you're basically a business network, i'll say the word network since the archaic versions are not applicable anymore. the dow is hovering around 20,000. i've made a small fortune in the stock market. i just did cnn the other day. sorry i shouldn't have said that. >> don't talk about them. >> the wonderful moderator was asking me, what do you think

about -- i said i made a small fortune in the stock market. only 50% of the people do it. yeah, the other 50% don't pay federal tax at all. so the answer is one way or the other, whether it's due to the president-elect or not, the dow is very positive. i hear rumors and so do you that taxes for those guys might go down to 15%. will it -- will the trickle down theory work? i don't know. but as far as i'm concerned, i'm putting more and more money into the marketplace because it's a friendly environment. >> and a new casino venture in oklahoma city. >> very good, sir. you're leading the witness and i'll put you in my will. >> yes! >> rock & brews restaurant is a chain i'm proud to be a founding member of. we start aid short time ago. we're in san antonio, dallas, and two at lax, two at cabo and mexico and hawaii. in a few days, january 11th, we're opening st. louis.

and the next day after that, we're breaking ground in -- right outside of oklahoma city in a place called braman, very first rock & brews casino resort. that will be the beginning of a brand new thing. what we do, and it's really important, and all businesses should. on day one of opening, we hire vets. it's not open to the public. we honor our vets, give them a big check. we feed them. we create jobs. we pay attention to the most important people in these united states, the vets. pa d o

harmony, pennsylvania, are helping the car world get up to speed. they're reving up ways to apply this technology to the auto industry and leaving their competition in the dust. for more watch "your business" sunday morning at 7:30 on msnbc.

in the december meeting, expressed concern that fiscal policies could raise demand above sustainable levels and, as a result, many said fiscal policy could mean tighter monetary policy. almost all said that the upside risk to the growth increases as a result of the possibility of more fiscal stimulus and half of the fed officials incorporated in their forecast more fiscal policy in their outlooks for

growth. influential fed staff also raised their outlook somewhat as well. several noted upside risks for better foreign growth with the possibility of more domestic investments but there were also some downside risks. very notable ones. many on the fmoc see the possibility of downside risks from trade barriers, some saw the possibility of downside risk from dollar appreciation. downside risks were also seen if fiscal policy failed to meet market expectations and fed officials said they were, in fact, cautious about recent financial market developments, saying that the uncertainty about what would happen with federal spending, taxes and regulatory policies made them cautious about predicting where things would go. a whole other area of concern, and that is with labor markets and the unemployment rate. of course, that's related to the possibility of fiscal policy where most participants said the labor market is close to full employment and the risk of undershooting the natural

unemployment rate is coming in lower than the national unemployment rate had increased somewhat and many said the need to raise rates, quote, more quickly than anticipated if the unemployment rate falls too far and inflation picks up. finally, if the rate outlook changes, they also said there could be some changes to how the fed governs its balance sheet as well. most judged, however, that the gradual path of rate increases was likely to be appropriate but a couple on the committee worry that using the word gradual will be taken by the market to mean just one or two hikes. as you remember from the summary of economic projections, fed officials forecast on average three rate hikes next year. back to you guys. >> thank you very much, steve. stay there, if you wouldn't mind, and bring in money strong president danielle dimartino and ed keon, portfolio manager at qma. folks, welcome. happy new year. >> happy new year to you. >> danielle, what do you make of those minutes? >> i think it was decided after

the press conference that janet yellin avoiding the fiscal issue is a nonstarter. they wove a lot into the minutes to, a, jump-start the economy from its current kind of 2%-ish gdp level or, b, disappoint. they also nodded to the stock market rally we've seen as well. there was some interesting nuggets in these minutes for sure. >> did they raise rates faster than we think now? >> they suggested that much. >> you, as a firmer fed insider, do suggestions mean actions? >> them calling one of their own words out, gradual, saying people were uncomfortable with using the word gradual, that means to me that there are quite a few on the committee who would prefer to stick to three, maybe even four rate hike this is year, if they can get it done. >> ed? >> i think janet yellin hinted she was getting more hawkish. >> is that because she wants to

or is being pushed that way? >> she is one of the most underestimated people in our country, excellent economist and fine leader of the fed. she has been dovish during a period of time the economy was weak and fragile. now she's saying if we do start to have more inflationary pressures, which i think there's some evidence that we do, we will not hesitate to shift gears to do what's right to meet the fed's long-term objectives. >> steve, do you think the fed, broadly speaking, is relieved at the idea that they may now have a sort of co-producer or second player in the management of the economy, ie the administration and congress in the form of fiscal stimulus? do you think they're comfortable with that? do you think they welcome that? >> think of it as a strained metaphor perhaps, tyler. if you're playing bridge and have no partner at all, it's a relief to have a partner. you don't really know how good that partner is at bridge until

they sit down and play. there's a lot of uncertainty about the character of that partner, how much fiscal responsibility is coming, what character it will take, whether it meets market expectations and whether or not it increases growth, ends up being expansionary for expansionary sake or go back to what fed chair janet yellin emphasized at the press conference, increasing the productive capacity i want to emphasize two routes here by which the fed is suggesting there may be tighter policy. the first route is obvious through fiscal policy. undershooting on the unemployment rate. quite a bit of talk about that in the minutes here. and there is some concern that the unemployment rate -- and it's not unrelated. obviously it could be because of fiscal policy -- ends up being below the rate that the fed sees as the natural rate and there's a warning they may have to

tighten because of that as well. two different routes where the fed is suggesting policy could be a bit tighter than the market currently anticipate. >> we're showing the market reaction here. yields on the longer duration bonds, ten years and up, go a little lower. dollar showing a bit of weakn s weakness. an interesting headline here as well, i thought, was that half of the fed members incorporated the possibility of fiscal stimulus into their forecast. at a time, ed, when they're hesitant to do so. >> none of us know what the policy will be exactly. in the form of lower taxes and possibly in the form of higher spending. i think you'll get increased growth. long-term growth potential hasn't changed that much so far. increased capital spending. we will see increase contribution from government

spending. tax cuts from consumers and business leaders. >> are we also on a blind date? we've got three new voting members on the fed. >> sure. >> we don't know, do we, what we're going to get? >> no. >> not an entirely new fed but, what, one-third new fed. >> new players that -- >> what do you know about the new players and what they're likely to do. >> rookies. >> exactly. kashkari. how do we know what he's going to do? >> harker came out recently and said we could be at the precipous. i don't know that anybody could tell you what the new guy in dallas that replaced richard fisher is going to do. so balanced in his comments. i don't think anybody could tell you how they're going to vote. trump can move swiftly to fill

those two vacancies as well. >> we also don't know, guys, how -- on balance, i think the committee gets more dovish. you have mechlt ster and george leaving the voting ranks and somebody like charlie evans coming in. two new appointees from the new president. the question i have and what i'm hearing when i listen to these minutes. it could be folks who were doves in the face of greater expansionary fiscal policy could become more centrist and maybe even hawkish if the gas pedal is firmly placed down on the fiscal side. >> the chair says she's going to stay for her full term. at some point later in year there will be wild speculation about whether she will be reappointed. and that will -- whether she's reappointed or not, it will

change the dynamic within the fed, won't it? >> it will be very interesting to see -- >> kind of lame duckishness. >> those two new members will be important. instead of seeing a more traditional republican member of the fed, very rules based and very hawkish, i wouldn't be surprised to see somebody appointed in the janet yellin camp more balanced in their view. >> really? >> not traditionally following the tight money. if you're the president of the united states, last thing you want to do is have the fed take too aggressive action and stop your pro-growth plan. >> by your reaction, i don't think you see it that way, danielle. >> i think he would be called out for being hypocritical. you can't ram through infrastructure spending if interest rates are going through the roof. the two don't go hand in hand. he will have to make some hard decisions when it comes to these two new appointees in terms of the pushback he's getting within the republican party and his capability of pushing through some of these bill. >> if gene simmons is right, he

doesn't care if people call him names. >> that was a great point that was just made. the fed being tighter may not matter quite so much to markets in the context of a market that's already tighter. the fed may just be saying what it's going to do with its interest rates but not commenting on the market interest rates which is ahead of where the fed is right now. >> danielle, thank you for being with us. ed, we'll see you tomorrow. san francisco fed president john williams, the fed president. >> we get to ask him all these questions. >> thanks, steve. >> i like doing the kr chronological breakouts. new lows on the session as the minutes were released.

fbling, the mere image of the euro versus the dollar made new highs, grabbed a 105 handle as you see on that chart. both of those have reversed somewhat. original low established in the dollar index was 102.52. we are now above t you can see it's moderated. once you get to the yield curve, look at twos. we didn't change the high or low yield of the day. ten years did to a lower yield. back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. let's go up and see vice p president-elect mike pence on capitol hill. >> had the privilege this morning to speak with house republican conference, an opportunity to meet with senator schumer in his chambers and the opportunity to speak with senate republicans today. it is 2017. we are back to work and just 16 days away from when we'll make america great again. the opportunity to be here with the leadership of the house and

senate and to talk about the priorities of the president-elect and to see the collaboration in the spirit that this leadership team has brought, to moving the president's agenda forward is truly inspiring. president-elect said many times on the campaign trail he had a three-part agenda. jobs, jobs, jobs. and the focus of our administration from the outset, after getting our team in place through the confirmation process is going to be to focus on supporting economic growth. repealing ownerous regulations that are stifling, working with leaders in the house and the senate to roll back an avalanche of red tape that's come out of this administration. we'll be looking for an opportunity. before we get to the spring to pass the tax relief that the president-elect advocated for working families, small

businesses, family farms, and really get this economy moving again. a focus on infrastructure, focus on border security, immigration. there will be a focus on military spending, rebuilding our military and, of course, the president-elect will be naming his choice for the supreme court of the united states. but as i said today, to members of the senate, the first order of business is to repeal and replace obamacare. obamacare has failed. and the american people have sent a decisive message to washington, d.c., that they want obamacare to be repealed and replace replaced with health care reform that will reduce the cost of health insurance without growing the size of government. on a budget resolution we're working with the senate that will begin the process of repealing obamacare and also create a framework for replacement going forward. we're also working on a series

of executive orders that the president-elect will put into effect to ensure that there is an orderly transition during the period after we repeal obamacare to a market-based health care economy in america. look, obamacare has failed. the promises of obamacare have all been proven to be false. i was here in a different capacity in march of 2010 and we were told if you like your doctor, you can keep it. not true. if you like your health insurance, you can keep it. not true. we were told that the cost of health insurance would go down if obamacare became law. not true. right now, the american people are laboring under extraordinary increases in premiums. the average deductible for a bronze policy today is $12,000. american families have seen an

increase in premium of $5,000. and this year the average premium increase on families has been 25%, over 100% in some american states. that all comes to an end when we set into motion the effort to repeal and replace obamacare. what i can assure you and the american people is that president-elect donald trump is a man of his word. he campaigned on a broad range of policies to make america great again, have america prospering again, standing tall in the world again, honoring our most cherished constitution principles. first order of business today for the president-elect -- and i'm grateful for the leaders of the house and the senate, is to keep our word to the american people, to repeal and replace obamacare with health care reforms that, again, will focus on lowering the cost of health insurance without growing the size of government. now the policies we'll be developing in the months ahead,

but president-elect strongly supported efforts popularly advancing the congress in years past, allowing americans to purchase health insurance across state lines. the architecture of the replacement of obamacare will come together, as it should, through the legislative process in the weeks and months ahead. but the american people voted for change in november. and the president-elect and i working with the house and senate leaders are determined to keep our promise to the american people and it all begins with repealing and replacing the failed policy of obamacare. >> talk a little bit, though, about the -- [ inaudible ] >> i'm sorry, i didn't hear the first part of your question. [ inaudible ]

>> i think the most important thing for the president-elect and for the leaders here in congress is that we keep our word to the american people. obamacare has failed. all the promises of obamacare have been shown to be false and broken promises. the american people want us to start over, to repeal obamacare and replace it with the kind of reforms that will give the american people more choices when it comes to health insurance. releasing the power of the free market is the pathway toward expanding access and affordability of health care across this country and the american people know it. but, you know, the simple fact is the american people know who owns obamacare. it's the first half of the title. it is obama and the party of obama. and what president-elect trump and i and the leaders in the

congress are determined to do is keep faith with the american people who have voted in this past historic election, both in the presidential election and in elections here in the congress of the united states, to give us the majorities and to give us the control of the white house, to make good on that promise. >> on the president-elect's adviser yesterday said -- >> that was vice president-elect mike pence speaking moments ago on capitol hill with members of the republican leadership behind him saying that the obamacare repeal process is basically already under way that the, quote, architecture of a new plan will be created in congress and they're looking for a new plan that would give americans more choice than what they have now, which brings us all to a strategy session. how do ceos and corporate leaders, health care or any other industry, navigate in this new trump world? joining us, former office depot

ceo and harvard business school professor deepak miholdren. deepak, you've written about negotiation and compromise. is compromise good strategy with the president-elect and his focus on hard negotiation? or do companies and ceos need to take a harder tact? >> it really depends on the situation you're negotiating. if it comes down to compromising your values or compromising your corporate strategy i wld definitely put that off the table. that's not the direction you want to go. doesn't mean there's not room for accommodation. if people are coming to you with new ideas, with a new way forward that can achieve their objectives as well as your objectives, working together makes perfect sense. the thing that would bother me or concern me is if the president-elect and then in the future the president himself

comes in with a bullying approach, trying to get people to do things his way. not listening, not understanding downstream consequences and still expects people to compromise. >> some people may have criticized ford yesterday. they likely made a business decision but the optics were there, de. epak, if you're a ceo, how do you go up against the president of the united states, who is using twitter and social media as effective as a bully pulpit? backing down, as hard as it sounds, better strategy right now? >> not compromising doesn't mean you have to fight. what general motors did is to simply ignore what was said. when somebody is coming at you in a bullying way, one thing you can do is fight, another thing you can do is compromise. third thing often for bullies, a

bark is stronger than their bite. the reason they're barking is they don't want to bite. general motors basically went to the public. went to their investors, went to employees and to the media and said what's being said and what we're doing is actually not true. they stuck to the facts and mentioned that 97% of the cars that are being sold in the united states are not coming from mexico, of this particular type. they went that route. i think what ford did also, they didn't say that president-elect trump is the reason they're making this decision. although they did sing his praises a little bit along the way. ceo mark fields did. i wouldn't necessarily go that route. that's okay as well. what neither side has done so far is compromise on their business strategy as far as we know. >> the president-elect tweets, specifically the one that goes after gm, targeting the chevy cruze, as deepak had mentioned 2.5% of chevy cruzes sold in the united states are actually made in mexico. they're going after a car,

little revenue consequence to general motors as opposed to a pickup truck made in mexico. a lot of these twooets have simply symbolism to them. do you take that as he wants to appear tough but not really be as tough as he could be? he could have really gutted, so to speak, general motors by going after something that was significant to its revenue stream as opposed to going after the chevy cruze. >> we just heard vice president-elect mike pence say that priorities were jobs, jobs, jobs. the president-elect was very clear on this. he wants to bring jobs back to america. this is part of why he was elected. there are a lot of angry people out there that support all of this i think ceos are accustomed to dealing with government, whether it's the congress, whether it's the regulatory machine that we faced the last decade, state and local. this is another form of it. but in some ways, this is very,

very simple. the president-elect is being very clear. don't move jobs overseas. and he called companies out during the race. he's calling them out now. who knows what he will do once he gets in office. right now that's all he can do. i think mark fields handled it just perfectly yesterday. they made a business decision. it was a good business decision and it balances all the pressures on him. i think he came out looking like a statesman for doing it. i think it's absolutely the right thing. >> deepak, how is negotiating in business over real estate deals different from the kind of negotiating that mr. trump is going to have to do when he's in the white house? >> well, there's at least a few different things going on here. one, most of what is going to happen going forward will be in the media spotlight. most business transactions and most real estate deals, while they might be announced after the fact aren't always happening in the media spotlight. second thing is there are a lot of stakeholders n a real estate

deal there might be other factors involved, banks, and other invested parties. but in the kinds of negotiations that president trump will be involved with, whether it's domestically or internationally, the number of stakeholders is absolutely huge. to the point steve just made, one thing you're always trying to do is balancing the needs of all these multiple stakeholders, which gets us to the next point, the constraints, perspective of all these different stakeholders who can influence the deal. if you don't have that instinct, that can be a bit of a barrier. >> great discussion on an issue that is not going anywhere any time soon. thank you both. appreciate it. see you soon. >> thank you. one thing from your childhood musically that is making a big comeback. we'll tell you what that is. >> the good, the bad, the ugly and much more. the dow is taking a slight leg up. it is crawling, stretching,

trying to get to dow 20,000. it's about 55 points away. you never have too much time on your hands. "power lunch" will be right back. pe g

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weight watchers up 22.5%, oprah winfrey talking about it last night on the late show. one of the worst performers, down more than 20% over the past three months while the overall markets have rallies, cerner. absolutely ugly day for unifirst, uniforms and work clothes, falling short of wall street's estimates there. you have it, the good, the bad and the ugly. ty? blackstone up 5%. melissa covered it in "street talk." buying the music rights company sesac, artists like bob dillon, neil diamond and, yes, mariah carey. >> maybe they can put some of those artists on vinyl. last year was a huge year for

vinyl. record sales especially in the uk. in fact, records sold in the uk, the most since 1991. it's not just hipsteres anymore, folks. more than 3.2 million records, 53% jump from the previous year. death of david bowie driver of some of those sales. guys, vinyl has been making a comeback the last five or six years but now it's sort of reaching -- >> what was the first vinyl album you owned? >> jethro toll. >> mine was -- >> you win. >> i don't think i owned any. >> is that right? >> except maybe those playskool red and yellow records that played the nursery rhymes. ♪ wheels s on the bus go roundd round ♪ >> that's right. >> my older, cooler brother had an el camino and used to play

this song by stixx. >> otis redding. ♪ sitting on the dock of the bay ♪ >> wow! you're on the game back there. >> good work. >> did you have a lady friend over? >> a lady friend? >> i was probably 11. >> did you have a lady friend over? >> no. one major retail name he thinks will file for bankruptcy this year. oil market is closing. we'll have the final trades on that and get one energy analyst energy's picks next on "power."

i'm sue herrera with your headlines. americans are very lucky to be served by such extraordinary patriots. >> it has been, as i said repeatedly, one of the greatest honors and privileges of being preside president, serving as commander in chief to such outstanding

people. >>i israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu call force the pardon of a convicted israeli soldier. the trial badly dividing the country of israel, facing a maximum sentence of 20 years. lucky lakers fan hits a half court shot last night winning a cool $95,000. he launched the shot, as you can see there, from the center jump circle, banked it off the glass, earning some big congratulations from a few of the players there. $95,000. let's watch it again. there he goes. yes! that's the news update this hour. brian, back to you. >> at this point, he could play for -- he could start for the lakers. >> maybe he gets a contract along with the $95,000. >> marc lasry was on, owns the milwaukee bucks. that guy's available.

good for him. thank you, sue. >> sure. oil up 10% the last 90 days. is that recent rally continuing to run today? let's find out at our energy desk. jackie deangelis, who hit ace half shot every time. >> that's right, brian. thank you. breaking a three-day losing streak, wti tracking lower for the week so far, though. what's going to move crude oil? number this is afternoon, jobs number friday. watch all those closely. since 1985, wti has been positive in the first quarter 75% of the time. only a small average return of a little bit more than a percent. some of the big xle performers, including hess and halliburton as well. taking another leg down, intraday low, moving average with some support for nat gas. we had that run-up to almost 4.

definitely profit taking here. back to you. >> jackie, thank you very much. be sure you are right back here tomorrow, folks. we'll be reporting live from the goldman sachs conference in orlando, florida, including a bunch of interviews, including a pretty rare and exclusive interview with chesapeake energy. doug lawler will be your exclusive guest. fast money 5:00 pm eastern, you talk about chesapeake. it's a hot stock, big balance sheet story. we'll give you the inside track. >> thank you, brian. oil moves, bringing in utilities analyst chris kelly. great to have you with us. with equities in the past year and certainly since the election, some thinking you invest in some laggards in the group. what's your take on that sort of strategy? >> we definitely like the laggards. one in particular is anadarko petroleum, extremely high quality with a high quality

management team for a very long time and fell out of favor about two years ago. we like anadarko, like the asset base and we think there's decent upside in the stock over the next 12 to 24 months. >> staggering for you to call anadarko a laggard when it's up 20% over the past 12 months. buying gulf of mexico assets, fairly recent in this whole -- in the timeframe of the downturn. does that mean that there are more deals to be made within the oil sector? >> i think it's possible that there's more deals made. most of what we've seen has been on the u.s. shale side obviously. anadarko was smart because they stayed away from the high valuations and went after very high free cash flow general assets that nobody wanted to touch. they're going to take that capital, redeploy it in u.s. shale, permean basin.

we think that will propel growth for the next two or three years for anadarko. they probably stay away from deals at this point, which frankly is another thing we look about the company. >> laggard epd, mlp and you like the payout, right? >> we love the payout, asset base, management team. once again it's a 6% dividend yield. 8% cash flow yield. they'll be able to grow that at least through the end of the decade and probably quite a while longer. >> last quick question, chris, what is the base case level for wti in order for these stocks to work? >> well, i think both can work at the strip. i think enterprise can probably work even if crude takes a leg down just because they're going to benefit from the volumes in the u.s. anadarko you probably want a little bit higher oil price. the valuation still works at the strip. call it between $50 and $60 a

barrel is fine for anadarko. >> chris kelly of janus. >> thank you. >> declining amount of foot traffic in malls. in fact, according to jan niffin, fourth quarter of 2016 saw the lowest drop of mall foot traffic in the history of the mall. out with retail predictions for 2017, joining us from new york city. we'll go quickly, jan. your first prediction. that is that stores equal more closings this year than ever before. why do you say that? >> because they've already started. macy's announced 100. sears is closing at least 30. we know a lot of in-line mall guys will close stores. it's inconceivable we won't have the biggest closing year ever. the question is, will we have a lot of openings of people who do online only now and need a brick and mortar presence? we will but not enough to offset all the closings. >> the net is fewer stores and

lots more empty places in the mall. speaking of the malls, you say you thought 2016 was bad in the fourth quarter. 2017 is going to be worse. dead men and women will not be walking the malls this time next year? >> well, it may look like a vision from apocalypse now. something like that will be going on. we'll see traffic down again next year and we'll see it down more in the fourth quarter like we did this year and last year. and that will be because more and more business will transfer to online. i think we'll see 20% of sales online next holiday season. and i think over the next ten years we see 50% of sales going online. >> number three, sears. what's the word on sears? >> sears goes out of the brick and mortar business this year some time in august. i don't know what the transaction will exactly look like. i call it a bankruptcy filing. i don't know if that's what it will be. i think they'll be out of the brick and mor attachment r. standard retail business and people having to do something

with that space and market share transfer to people like pen peninformpe penney's. i think they're coming to the end of the road. >> third party sellers online said their biggest growth this past season was from walmart and jett. will they be a winner in 2017? >> they're going to be the biggest threat to amazon. they're pretty small now. jet is only at a billion. 1,000 customers a month. but growth rate of jet walmart.com will exceed the growth in amazon. they're going to do some catching up. the real question is, what's left for everybody else if amazon keeps growing the way they're growing and jet.com and walmart.com keep growing even faster? that presses out a lot business because amazon is already half of the growth online and 30% of

the growth in retail. >> jan, great to see you. jan kniffen. we reached out to sears for a comment on jan's prediction it would go out of the brick and mortar business this year and they've not returned our call. >> is that not somewhat representative that sears has not yet returned the call? >> yes. we're probably on hold. fed's latest minutes out later this hour. what is the outlook for interest rates mean for your stock investments? we'll find out with the trade nation team next. plus, a strong finish to the year for auto sales. can americans keep buying cars and keep sales booming? it's the highway to heaven for auto sales. we're back after this. ♪ ou uracens yo

welcome back. it is time now for trading nation. den nis slozburg. incoming president-elect may be a little more important than the fed. just my view.

what's your take on that and the overall market right now? >> i think the fed basically confirmed that they are going to see stronger growth going forward. they were concerned about growth accelerating going forward and i think that simply amplifies the idea that the market is pricing in a much better growth in 2017. that's why it remains relatively elevated. we could have a situation where we have higher rates and improving market. it's very emblematic of early stage growth. four to five years in the recovery it's like a brand new slate into the new administration. that's how everybody is viewing it. >> it has to be, too, literally new slate with fed governors, trump appointing a couple as well. who knows what they're going to do. new lineup. >> economic rebirth. >> exactly. there we go. let's get a technical look at stocks. we stalled the last couple of weeks. what's happened and where do you see it going? >> not a big deal. let's talk about the stalling we've seen. longer term picture is still

bullish. speaking in terms of interest rates, our analysis would suggest that really the direction, probably equally if not more important than the level of interest rates, historically speaking low in rising interest rates. bullish for equities. that's what we've seen over the course of the last six months while high and falling interest rates tend to be much more bearish omen as they were ahead of market peaks in 2000, 2007 and really the peak and risk in 2014 as well. so our take is to get that downward reversal in interest rates are likely going to be several months of moderation that's needed. this little bit of pullback doesn't qualify as a downturn in interest rates. we need to see that moderation. without that moderation, the longer term positives are still supportive. >> ari, tell us right now, give us a day and time, when do we hit dow 20,000? >> i don't know. some time this year.

>> maybe this week. >> honest answer ever. >> maybe this week. >> maybe this week, borris? >> yeah. >> not particularly bold. we have 2 1/2 days willest. >> look how close we are. >> 65 points. >> we've been close for a long time. >> i said 12:30, but i howe wrong was i? >> broke 19,900 december 13th. been within 100 points effectively, kind of come back -- >> that's kind of like ohio state and that game the other night. >> that was their loss. loved that. that was great! auto sales and self driving cars. big interview here. ceo of nissan joining phil lebeau exclusively. do not miss the interview. carlos gohn. stick around.

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#. nissan sales up 10% in november. can the auto industry keep up the big pace in 2017? phil lebeau joins us along with carlos ghon ceo of renault nissan. >> we'll talk about 2017 and the strong sales in 2016. first we want to talk about the vehicle you just took us for a ride in. autonomous drive infiniti. tell us where you're at right now. >> we are now with autonomous cars one lane on the highway. that's where we are. mass marketed in japan on one specific car. the second step is autonomous drive on the highway, multi-lane. the car will maneuver by itself on the highway. this is end of 2018. and then, by 2020, this car should be on the road. this is city driving. >> when you were taking us out

there, you did nothing and the car was essentially steering us all around sunnyvale and the silicon valley. >> it's good you were with me. you saw we had a conversation. i was keeping an eye on the road but my hands were on the wheel but i was doing nothing. in fact, many situations you have seen where we went in the highway, out of the highway. into city driving. you had situations where the cars were cutting in on us and never we felt a threat. the car anticipated up a the moves. in 2020 the sensors get better. rudders, lasers. cameras will get better. so the car will improve a lot before we put it on the market. >> we'll talk more about this and december sales in a little bit. first, i have to ask you about president-elect donald trump yesterday basically saying to general motors, look, you're bringing in a vehicle from mexico. there should be a border tax.

you manufacture in mexico. how worried are you that donald trump says there is a 3% tax on vehicles built in mexico. >> when the president of the united states talks, everybody listens obviously. we take this very seriously. we will evaluate the situation. there is a new administration coming. we'll see what measures are taken and adapt. i don't know what's going to be decided but there is no doubt on the fact that all automakers are listening. when something like this happen at this level, the u.s. is the second largest market in the world. for most automakers it's a very important market. so we will be listening carefully about what are the measures to be taken. >> would you start manufacturing more in the u.s.? >> it depends on what's going to be decided. we want to know what are the new rules. obviously, for the moment, we work within the rules of nafta. this was an established agreement between the three countries, and it was backed by the president, et cetera. now, if there is a new president

wanting to do something else, we will have to adapt to our business people. >> we'll see about that. quickly, december sales. record here for nissan in the u.s. what do you think you can expect for 2017? >> we would be very happy to see the market continue to grow in 2017, even though we -- i mean, our forecast is more stabilization of the market at a level of 2016, which is a very healthy level. so we don't think the market will continue to push up. and i think it's going to continue to be a very competitive market in 2017, with a shift. obviously what you have seen in 2016. more crossover, pickup truck, less sedans. we'll continue to feel the shift of the consumers to these kinds of cars. >> carlos ghosn. just took us for a drive in the self-driving vehicle. back to you, phil. >> appreciate it. "check, please" is next. at.

the new year is young, but we are taking a look at how things have been doing. so far this week, technology has outperformed the nasdaq composite. it's worth noting within technology there seems to be a rotation starting to happen. last year it was all about the semiconduct semiconductor index. this year they have been laggards. we're seeing a catch uptrade on

the fang stocks. for the past two days the stocks have been doing well. facebook is up 3.5% over the past two days. this is something to watch because these stocks have been laggards since the election. >> that's a good year for some stocks. 3.5%. >> very true. >> we got through about four predictions from jan. he likes macy's, calling it basically the only viable regional department store. he thinks nordstrom is a sweet spot between neiman on the high end and macy's in the middle. that will put pressure on saks and lord and taylor. he called that either tj max or ross make a bid for macy's in 2017. >> i think retail will have trouble. the universal theme park numbers. our parent company, big numbers for theme. home sales up. car sales soaring.

limited amount of money out there. retail could have a tough holiday season. people are spending money on everything else. i think we hit dow 20,000 tomorrow. >> that's your prediction? >> because i'm not shehere. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. yes, hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. busy day. a busy couple of hours coming up. the fight over repealing obamacare heating up on capitol hill today. president obama and vice president-elect mike pence both met with congressional leaders today on that topic. we have details coming up. plus, former aetna ceo ron williams will be here at the new york stock exchange to talk about the impact an obamacare repeal would have on insurers. that will be a cnbc exclusive. we're looking forward