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tv   Options Action  CNBC  January 6, 2017 5:30pm-6:01pm EST

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did anything happen in the markets today some we're live at the market site on this record setting day. the guys are getting ready for the show. while they're doing that, here's what's coming up. >> it's done. >> yes, mr. frodo. it's over now. >> not quite. the dow 20,000 was close. but if i missed the move, we've got a way to catch you. plus -- ♪ >> that's what biotech stocks have done this year. but there's still one name you can buy.
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we'll explain. and talk about money in the bank. >> take those big envelopes and put as many 100s, 20s and 50s. >> if you're worried about next week's earnings, we'll tell you how to protect your gains. the action begins right now. >> all right. let's get right to it. while everyone was fixated on dow 20 k, there was another index that made a record. the nasdaq, facebook, google. giving a boost. is this where you want to be as stocks melt higher? that's a really important theme of 2017 so far. this rotation. a lot of these stocks didn't do well or as well since the election. >> for the last six months of the yearering with saw them as a source of funds. and therefore, you know, in a lot of ways, i think you can look back and say that was a pretty positive event. it rallied out.
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i was concerned about those names. they make up 40% of the entire nasdaq 100. the fact is, in late november, december, when you see other parts of technology participating, i think that's a pretty healthy sort of thing. i know they may think a little differently. it doesn't make me bullish but i keep getting asked the question. why are they performing this year? we know we have earnings coming up in the next couple weeks and i think there are other ways to play than picking the names. >> if i'm going on incorporate amazon as one of the tech stocks, i think it is interesting when we see all the secular trends that continue to play out this holiday season. and it didn't seem to get as much of a boost as people might have expected it would have. these guys are so big that it is hard to move companies this size.
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the microsofts and googles. costco, home depot. this is a type of stock that has lagged whether it is a source of funds. now the question is do they catch up? one or two days doesn't change anything. if you look at the relative performance, it peaked almost 15 months ago. the question is, can you make a new high? investing, right? you can make money. if you're making less money than your bench mark, you lose the number or you keep them. >> amazon and facebook and those with in particular started going down after the q-3 report in late october. people were worried about expenses going forward and they're that 6% from the all time highs. google had good results. it started selling off artist underperformed, too. if those stocks are going to go back to those prior highs, how to play.
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trying pick one of those to break out is a tough one. i want to look at the qqq. it looks like it has some pretty decent support a near term basis. it is breaking out. this is options show. options prices much cheaper than those large components. if you want to isolate earnings, we have the top six names. they all report before february exploration with option prices where they are. if you warm to make a bet the in addition dlak break out, just buy a call. it is less than 2% of the underlying stock price. the reward there is pretty good. if we go back below breakout level, you really basically
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define your risk to about 118. i like the risk reward of that because i don't like picking one of those. if facebook or amazon or anything similar do one of those, the stocks will go lower and i like the risk reward. >> we have valuations close to all time highs in a lot of areas. to go in and add longs, very tough to do. i like the idea of calls. options are cheap. i would look further out in time. one of the things you were pointing out is that they are quite low right now. you can go out to april. you can go out to april or even june and they won't decay that much. you think about adding stocks. i would rather add that. >> in a way you can use this group as a control mechanism. if growth will be embraced
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again. the market goes higher. the caterpillars give back now. >> what would be your biggest concern? we have a lot of earnings coming out. >> yeah. so here's the thing. i think let's throw netflix out of there. apple is the big kahuna so i think apple will have a really big spot between now can the super cycle, iphone 8 or whatever you want to call it. i'm expecting some downward guidance. i don't think facebook will pass. that i think this trade gets you in the game. and you don't have to pick one of those and be right. i have no idea what they're going to do and i have no idea what investor reactions are. i have a feeling the way they shop first and ask questions later. >> let's shift gears here. while the market makes new highs, a number of consumer sensitive stocks have hit high. the number of casual dining
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stops at a one-month low. so look at cheese cake factory. it ain't all bad for consumers. >> pretty bad. macy's, kohl's, nordstroms. within the sector there are individual sfoks are decent. we know that media has done well, disney, s & i. when people don't spoken things, they want to spend on experience. and i want to single out the cruise line carnival. first this. this is ten years. colors are pretty straightforward. it speaks for itself. what we know is that laggard here is carnival cruise. that's pretty bad. ten years? versus the s&p 500 versus the sector in which carn civil a part. so not only has it lagged in equities, it has handgun among
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its peers by a lot. that's the set-up. meaning i believe this is catching up. how do we know it has the poe toning catch up? guess what is happening recently? the exact opposite. guess who is leading on a six-month basis? carnival cruise. it is crushing the market and its peers. so you have the set-up of, i've lagged. and now i'm coming back. important. relative performance. shown another way. this is chart of the stock. this is the relative performance. this is up absolute. but important. its relative performance to its peers. that's how they make decisions. it is positive and improving. the chart itself. how to draw it. i think you can draw hit the way. take it away. put it back. breakout. long term chart.
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it is the same thing. when it was 2005, it was a p.e. of 25. now it is 15. i think this breaks out. i think it is a way to play the consumer. it has the long term opportunity of having been the underperformer. >> mike? >> yeah. so this is interesting. he points out that he is trading at 15. this things seeing double digit pes growth. you're getting a low multiple and we've seen some growth. concerns might be rising fuel costs. soil a little higher. it represents 10% of the operating costs. the fact is there is a lid on the upside. north american production can keep that down. i don't know that much about cruising but 11.5 million people went on their 100 boats last year. not my thing necessarily.
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but apparently a lot of people do like it. from a fundamental standpoint, i think it makes a lot of sense. we talked about, we have this market has been very strong. if it feels back, it could weaken every stock. i think the way to play this is to look at ax 55, 57.5 will it sounds like a mouthful. you're collecting a nick toll guy 55, 57.5 call spread and sell that. here's the nice thing. if stock rallies, you can make the 2.5%. you won't have the stock put to you until it falls down. that's more than a 10% decline. the probability of success in a trade like this is quite high. the chances that it drops below, 20 to 25%. that means a 75% chance that you lose nothing or, this make
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money. >> if it continues to consolidate, it won't hurt you. i think the post drive will you know the low in september was what, 44 or something. would it take a real stock specific event to put it back. >> it is going to return. it will take a round trip. whatever you want to play with. >> if writ just itself, you might question it. guess who is well as well? the other ones. norwegian, royal caribbean. they act well. >> if you have a question, check out our tweet. don't be the last one. in the meantime, here's what's coming up next. >> we have liftoff. >> that's what the banks have
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been doing. we'll show you how to protect your portfolio. plus -- biotech has been on fire. but if you missed the move, there's still one name you can still buy. we'll explain.
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doy. hm st gar, yorerectmukowimd welcome back to "options action." they're here. a massive part of the earnings season. here's a little preview of what to expect. of course, we'll toss in a few tid bits on how the prices shaping up ahead of that big report. all of them. and what they're estimating for how volatile it could be. first off, the big banks that
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are reporting next week are all doing so on friday. that would be jpmorgan chase, bank of america and wells farg officially according to thompson reuters, jpmorgan is expected to earn 1.43 per share. looking at the options market, it is a move of what could be nearly 3% up or down post earnings. as for bank of manager, estimates are for earnings per share 38 cents on revenues of 21.9 billion. options here currently pricing the approximate 4% move up or down. and finally, wells fargo expected to earn a buck a share on revenues of 22.4 billion. approximately a 3% move up or down in the stock. there's no doubt the bank earnings will be a key to the market narrative given how strongly they've performed since the election. now it will be about whether the
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news can keep that moment from going. back over to you. >> thanks. i'll have a great weekend. the banks have been on fire. if you're worried about next week's earnings, dan has a way to protect those games. what are you looking at? >> let's look at the financial etf. those inames, i would be surprised to see them move. when you see them, i don't think they're going to be giving them up so quickly. the other thing i'll mention, i suspect november and december for all the stuff that these investment banks do. rates going the way they did. the volume that's we saw. some of the market activity. i'll bet you they had good quarters. here's the question to ask yourself. if you've written this move, some of the stocks are up 20, 25, 30%. what are you going to do? i suspect guidance that they give may not be as good as what
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sentiment expects. very different. sentiment is very high. you may want to look past next week or the week after and you may want to consider some protection. i want to look at this chart. it went above 20. this is fairly healthy. let's back it out to 2000. we know what happened here. we know that it has been a long road back. i think that 25 levels is an interesting near term resistance level. we have no idea what feds will do, what regulations will do. there are a lot of things could happen as we move toward more clarity about who will be running our financial system. i want to look past the earnings. when the stock was trading 2360, you could by the march 31st
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expiration, paying 60 cents for that. that breaks down 5%. you're risking about 2.5% of the underlying price for protection at $22.40. when you look at it, it is an air pocket that you have down to that level. to me, if you want to hold on, you don't think earnings are a big mover next week or the week after. you're looking for some 2 1/2 protection. >> we were talking about options prices are low. they're particularly low here. you look at three-month option prices. we're basically hovering around two-year lows and there is an opportunity for some volatility. a lot of people are expecting it. some positive things could happen for financials and what could happen on earnings calls, people asking the question. are we going on bring things back like proprietary trading? and i think anything are get
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rolled back. the banks have made big moves to get away from the businesses. >> it is obviously a very broad aggregate. not just banks. you've got asset managers, investment banks and brokers. but they have a big impact. if you're just hook at that breakout that dan is talking about and measure it in terms of how far above the price, it is only been this extended two times, going back to the inception. so you want to expect a lot has been priced in. berkshire is in here as well. that's the trans ports also overbought. i think you're doing all the right things. >> i've been doing this 20 years. i've never seen a sector about 15% of the s&p 500 move the way this has. i remember some goofy stuff the first quarter of 2000 with technology stocks. this is a sector that has been
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very underowned. >> the notion that you're going to make money with broadening that. for example interesting idea that you're going to have lots of issue wants. if we see the market slow down, that is problematic. so you can borrow at a low rate and lend at a higher one unless no one will -- >> i don't know if we have the chart but it looks as though it has a, the long term chart. if you look at that, it looks like there is catch up. citibank was at 600. if you just for splits, it is all time highs. so it is not so important. citigroup is $60. it is not going back to 600 at any point in its high of. aig, you get point. so
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test. then you have this out of the money call that's still out of the money. fits near the money at some point prior to earnings, it would have happened in a few weeks. you may want to think about a higher strike call and turning it into a spread. >> up next, final call. y , ,
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ey bluno okots .me ♪ helec g he l. letseate r althe mp welcome back. time to take your tweets. we have one from expense here asks, calls on disney. >> i love trades where you're selling premium and gdx, they're high enough that you can tell that but i wouldn't want to do it much higher than the 21
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level. disney only if you tone stock. >> final call time. kick it off. >> carnival cruise. >> call spread risk carnival. >> qqq, i prefer long have a g. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. what can i say? this market -- this market is a tease. today the dow jones average rallied up to within 37 cents

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