tv Options Action CNBC January 8, 2017 6:00am-6:31am EST
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the guys are getting ready for the show. while they are doing that, here is this. >> not quite. if you missed the move we have a way to catch up. plus, that's what biotech stocks have done this year. there is one you can still buy. we'll explain. and talk about money in the bank. >> put as many hundreds, 50s and
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20s you can pack into them. >> we'll show you how to protect your gains. the action begins right now. all right. let's get right to it. while everyone was fixated on dow 20k there was another that made a record. is this where you want to be as stocks melt higher? let's find out right now. that's a really important theme, this rotation into a lot of stocks that didn't do well since the election. >> yeah. so for the last six months of the year we saw rotation out of other parts of technology and therefore, you know, in a lot of ways i think you can look back and say it because pretty positive i vent. i kn -- spent the first half concerned about the top nasdaq
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names. they make up 40% of the entire nasdaq 100. and so the fact of the matter is in late november and december when you see other parts participating i think it's a healthy sort of thing. it doesn't make me bullish about it but i keep getting asked they under performed late. we know we have earnings in the next couple of weeks. i think there are other ways to play it. >> if i'm going to incorporate i think it's kind of interesting when we see it continue to play out this holiday season. it really didn't seem to get as much of a boost as a lot of people expected. if i'm looking at this these guys do own the future. they are so big it's hard to move companies this size a long way. >> visa underperformed as well as google and facebook.
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it's also large costco, home depot. that's type of stock that has lagged that now the question is do they finally catch up? one twor two days doesn't chang anything. it peaked almost 15 months ago. can you make a new relative high? if you're making less than your bench mark you're underperforming or you keep them because nobody cares. >> amazon and facebook and those two in particular, they started going down in late october. people were worried about expenses going forward and they are about 6% from their all time highs that they made. it started selling off and underperformed too. if those stocks are going to go back to the prior highs how do they play it? you used the words id owe sin
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cattic but trying to break out is a tough one. it looks like it has some pretty decent support down at 115. it just broke out tlchhere. >> it is breaking out. and so here is the other thing. it is options actions. options prices in the qqq are much cheaper than any of the large components. if you want to isolate earnings we'll have the top 6% that all report before february expiration with option prices where they are. if you want to make a bet nasdaq will continue to break out just buy a call. fed 122 call was offer at 220. it is less than 2%. it breaks even at 124.20. you're defining the risk down to 118. i don't like picking one of
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those stocks. if facebook or amazon do anything the stocks are going lower. i like the risk better. >> we have obviously had a tremendous tear in the market. to go in and add them at this point is very tough to do. options are relatively cheap. one thing i would consider is looking further out in time. one of the things you're pointing out is options premiums are low right now. you could go out to april or june and think about buying out of money calls. they won't decay that much. if you're thinking about adding stocks i would rather add that than additional stocks here. >> right. in a way you can use it as a control mechanism. if growth is going to be embraced again and value can hold its gains market goes higher. if it's sifmply rotation becaus they give back new you'll do
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more of this. >> what would be your biggest concern? we have a lot of earnings coming out. >> here is the thing. let throw in netflix. apple is the big kahuna, right? it is between that and the iphone 8 or whatever you want to call it. i don't think they are going pass. if that hits margins in this quarter. i think it gets you in the game and you don't have to pick one of those and be right. i have no idea what investor reactions are. i think the way they shot first and asked questions later. let's shift gears here. a number of consumer sensitive stocks have set out. a number of casual dining also hitting 1 month lows. the chart master says it ain't all bad for the consumer.
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what are you looking at? >> macy's calls, nordstrom, some of the stocks we have there. within the sector there are individual stocks that are decent. disney come back to life. but there is phenomenon when they want to spend on experience. i wanted to single out here the cruise line carnival. so first this. this is ten years. again, colors are pretty straightforwa straightforward. what we know is that this is carnival cruise. i mean that's pretty bad. ten years versus the s&p versus the sector in which carnival is a part. it lagged its peers as a discretionary in the market. that's the set up meaning i believe this is catching up but
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how do we know it has the potential to catch up? guess what's leading on a six month basis? carnival cruise. it's crushing the market. you have the set up of i've lagged and now i'm coming back. relative performance. shown another way this is the chart of the stock. this is relative performance. this is up absolute but important, its relative performance to its peers is positive and improving. the chart itself, how to draw it. i think you could draw it this way. take it away, put it back, pretty straightforward. long-term chart. it looks like kind of a flat top to me. it is. here is the same thing.
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when it was here in '05 it is 25 and now it's 15. i think it breaks out and a way to play the consumer. >> mike? >> yeah. it is interesting. when you point out it is trading at 15 that's not the only thing though. i mean this thing has seen double digit eps growth for the last three years. you're getting a low multiple and we have seen some growth. concerns is there is rising fuel cost. it represents a little over 10% of total operating cost. the fact is there is probably a lid on the north side. i don't know that much about cruising but 11.5 million people went on their boats last year. >> not my thing necessarily but apparently a lot of people do like it. i think it makes a lot of sense.
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we have this market that's been very strong for a while. i think the way to play this is to look out to april. i was looking at the april 48-55. really you're collecting a nickel to buy the 55-57 point 5 call spread. here is the nice thing. you can make the nickel you collected. you're not going to have the stock collected. so the probability of success in a trade like this is actually quite high. the chances that it drops below probably 20 to 25%. it is a 75% chance you lose nothing or make money. >> the trade structure is really interesting. if the stock stayed here it's not going to hurt youchlt i think mike's choice, you go look
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at that chart you know the low in september is 44 or something like that. it would take a real event to take it back. >> yeah. and it's going to report and take a round trip, whatever you want to play with since it is a cruising company. that's the level that it came from. that's why i like this. >> and if it were just itself but guess who is acting well as well? the other one. there is royal caribbean. they act well. play it for all. send us a tweet. check out our web site. while you're there check out our newsletter. don't be the last one. here is what's coming up next. >> and we have lift off. >> if you're worried about earnings next week we'll show you how to protect your
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portfolio. biotech has been on fire. there is still one name you can still buy. we'll explain when options actions returns. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. i mess around in the garage. i want to pay more to file my taxes. i want my tax software to charge me at the last second. paying $60 to file my taxes was the highlight of my day. and you just saw footage of me flipping burgers. want to charge me extra to itemize my deductions?
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oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. welcome back. big banks, here is a preview of what to expect.
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we'll toss a few options prices are shaping up ahead of the big report, all of them and what they are estimating how volatile it could be for the tickers. the big banks are all doing so on friday. that would be j.p. morgan chase, bank of america and wells fargo. let's start with the diamond house. according to j.p. morgan expected to earn $1.43 on $29.95 billion in revenue. markets implying what could be a move of nearly 3% up or down post earnings. earnings are for their of 38 cents. options here currently pricing an proximate near 4% move. finally, wells fargo expected to earn a buck a share on $22.48 billion. options here pricing at approximately a 3% move up or down in the stock.
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there is no doubt the bank earnings will be the key given how strongly they already performed. now it will be about whether the knew can keep that momentum going. back to you. >> have a fwraet weekengreat we. so dan is over at the smart board. what are you looking at? >> yeah. the way i see it, those implied moves he just laid out, i would be sprieds to see those names move that much. when you think about how much plow into this sector i don't think they will be giving them up so quickly. the other thing is i suspect november and december for all of the stuff these investment banks do. the volumes we saw, some of the capital market, here is the question you have to ask you're, if you have written these moves,
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some of these are up 30, 35%. i suspect the guidance they give may not be as good as what they suspe expect. sentiment is very high right now. to me you may want to look past next week or the week after and you may want to consider some protection. this is this fairly epic bre breakout. this consolidation is fairly healthy when you consider it. here is the thingme. we know it has been a long road back. i think it is an interesting near term resistance level. here is the thing. we have a lot of things going on. we have no idea what the feds are going to do. there is a lot of things over the next couple of months as we move about who will be running our financial system. to me i want to look out to
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march 31st expiration. when the stock today was trading 23.60 it breaks down to $22.04. you're risks about 2.5% to have protection below $22 .40. it is kind of an air pocket. to me i think if you want to hold onto some of these, you don't think earnings will be a big mover next week or the week after but you're looking i think it is one way to do it. >> we are talking about options prices are low. they are particularly low here. if you look we are basically hovering around two year lows. a lot of people are expecting positive things could happen for financials. what could happen on earnings calls are people asking the
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question are we going to bring back things like propritary trading. they made big moves i wouldn't expect them to come back in 12 months. >> it is a very broad aggregata. it has life health. you have asset managers. the big banks have obviously a big impact. if you're just looking at that breakout and measure it over 200 days or 150 days it has only been this extended two times. i think you want to expect that a lot has been priced in. berkshire is in there as well. i think you're doing all of the right things here. >> i have been doing this 20 years. i have never seen a sector that's about 15% move the way this is done. i have never seen it.
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i can't tell you. i remember goofy stuff in the first quarter of 2,000 but it was a different sort of thing. this is a sector that has been very underowned. >> the key part to the notion you'll make is the idea that you're also going to have lots. if we see the market slow down on rising rates that's problematic. >> and one thing that's important is -- i don't know if we have the long-term chart, but it looks as though it has there's catch up. here the thing. citibank was at 600. if you just for splits it is making all-time highs. if you were to plot the market cap it is at all time highs. it is not so important. >> wow. >> citi group is 60 bucks.
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the high was 600. citibank is not going back to 600. you get the point. we are making all-time highs as a part of the s&p. believe it or not biotech has been the best performing industry group this year, granted it is one week old. we'll tell you what the stock is you can still buy when options action returns. cole, this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. here is what they said. >> this spread has only happened two other times since 1990. usually it's quite right to bet for convergence. i think you want to buy health care. i know mike has a trade in particular. >> right now you can buy the february 120/130 call spread. you can spend about $2.55 for that. >> yeah. we have seen about a 35%
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increase in this but i definitely want to stick with it. celgene will need to move a lot more for me to think this thing is reasonably valued. >> health care is off to a good start. celgene is an important part of it. stick with it. >> thanks. here is what he said about google. >> today when the stock was trading about 805 you could sell o one and sell for $13.50. it doesn't cost you anything. >> google rallying the first few days of the new year. what's next? >> the stock has been consolidating. it is one of those i didn't mention by name but this is one i think they will have a decent quarter. the stocks have about $20 since we talked about this a month ago. it could have been sold at
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$13.50 is offered about 7.5. i think you want to cover that. then you have this out of money call. if it's near the money at some point prior to earnings, which will happen in a few weeks here you may want to think about turning it into a call spread. >> all right. up next, final call. stay tuned. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. they all...want...to... how charge me.xes going?
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guyhey nicole, happening here? this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. welcome back. time to take your tweets. spencer asked sell calls in sdis? >> options premiums are high enough but i wouldn't want to do it higher than maybe the 21 level. disney, only if you own stock. >> carnival cruise.
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>> carnival. >> yeah. qqq i prefer. >> yeah. have a great weekend. mad money starts right now. >> announcer: get ready for fun, easy fitness, because this is a paid presentation for country heat, brought to you by beachbody. there was a time when beachbody was known only for extreme and intense fitness programs. that's why super trainer autumn calabrese decided to create a new program that would not only be fun and easy to follow but a program that would combine her love for country music with her passion for dance. and that program is now a sensation sweeping across the country, because anyone can do it. welcome to country heat, the all-new country-mu
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