the guys are getting ready behind me. >> the money is coming your way, you don't ask any questions. >> the money is definitely coming into netflix. if you missed the move, we'll tell you how you can profit next week. >> we're out of gas. >> that's what traders are saying about the run to the banks. and there's one name in particular that can come into the cross hairs next week. we'll explain. and -- it's the one dow stock

some traders say poised for a bad fall. here's a behind. the action begins right now. with the markets at record highs, could it be time to fade trump trade. >> it could be right. in the last 60 days we've had a situation where this really parabolic move in a lot of secretary pores were beneficiaries of more pro growth. higher growth in the u.s. but also just a reflation trade globally. we've seen a bit of a stallout in the last 30 days. so i think it will be after the inauguration. what do the first 100 days look like? will they lay out the policy that's a lot of stocks have looked at with the enthusiasm? i think as we get into the spring, and it doesn't go as

smoothly as a lot of people think, this is a sector. he know he wants to talk about it. it finally made a new all time high. i think some of them could be vulnerable. >> we've had ceos saying we have an industrial recession going on in this country. as the oil patch slowed down, they serviced them significantly. we've seen declining revenues and we've sboen caterpillar before. that's one example but there are tons of them. they have price in the all kinds of good news. i don't know that they'll roll over. but even if anything goes according to plan, they've price that had in already. >> i think there's general subject of industrials. if you look at the s&p 500

industrial sector from monday november 14, the first monday after the election week to now, they've underperformed the market. and then transports have been quite burdened if you look at where they've come from. that's a two panel chart. they got back to an all time high and they've consistently still not made relative high to the s&p 500. a few big names carrying the weight. you have to confirm that highs in the industrials, and two years and two months later, we're still below where we were in november of 2014. >> nearly up 4% move the next day. here's the thing. it is up 7.5% on the year. 20% since the election. that's double performance. that's the dow jones transport index. that's the five-year chart.

it is stalled back from 2014, 2015. and i think this is an interesting spot to look at 100 days and really just kind of reprice the potential risk reward. it is not an imed my move. you can buy 3833. $1.50 for that. you're buying one of them for $2.30. one of them. you can make up to 350 below 36.5 to 33. risk one. make up to three. i chose that 33 strike on the down side. if we have a one-year chart, that was the level it broke out from. it looks like retracement. >> this is an interesting situation. there is a little dote this

balance sheet. that's one of the reasons you don't want to be short. using a spread like the makes a lot of sense. we are trading at peak valuations. despite we've seen a 10% decline within the last five years. so this is basically trading on all kinds of good news. even if they get back there, it is hard to see how they can go much higher. >> and it is not -- he is pointing to a prior peak. while the transports have pulled back, this has not. and so that makes it even more vulnerable to a presumptive pullback. >> is it possible that it has gotten better? >> oil and gas. that's not even factoring in. >> all right. that's a great point. they had a record out that said

for the first time in seven quarters. they have actually increased. it was up 2.2% year over year. never raised the numbers. here's the stock trading 21 times trailing. and 19 times. well above the market multiple. it is a rich stock. so that i think we have to see a trend confirmed. i want to see it three months from now. we are on the inflation trade. >> that's the whole point. it was good news recently. we've gone from 22 to 48. >> at the very least, it is in all kinds of good things happening here including what's going on. >> now to another group of trump stops. we had big earnings reports. the stocks really didn't move too much.

so with goldman saches, is it safe to say they are priced in. >> it is almost the same thing. you get a big move in anticipation. here come the good results. we get no movement in price. often it is discounting the current things coming out. >> i'm going back and forth. small stocks. about 300 stocks. bkx index. jpmorgan. wells. what is the difference? new all time highs. and we'll see it has so much more to go. they all diluted their shares. if you were to plot not the collective share price of the banks but the market cap. the bkx is already here. it is already in line. they didn't dilute because they didn't have the wall street

crisis. so first and foremost, this is not a -- you don't talk about catching up. we're already at new highs as a reference point. let's not talk about it. here is the last three, four years. you can draw the lines any way you want. i think you draw them this way. tension. and we get this huge breakout. this is a 60% move. now i want to focus in on this. let's really zero in on that. we have a 25 sex range of 4.5%. that's only happened 19 times many 20 plus years. how does it get resolved? if the preceding period was very

strong and then you have a stall like that, they would argue bits to do that. in f the preceding move was big, usually it is met with that. and you come back toward the trend line. so i'm going to make that bet that banks are telling. here are the stats that speak to that. we're going to again make the bet banks have priced in everything possibly they are going to get. >> mike, how are you trading the banks? >> i still think on a valuation basis, it might be one of the more attractive sectors. i was looking at citibank. it is an interesting case. they actually get much more of their revenues from overseas. so they're a little more sensitive to issues between dollar and other currencies than some of the other banks leak

wells fargo might be which has plenty of problems all on its own. they're implying. it is about 2.4% on average. you want to be short. you don't want to be naked short that premium. you can sell the 60, 62.5 spread. this is a situation where you'll get paid. even if it terrorists a little higher. the most risk you're taking is the dollar and a half. basically bet that it stalls here or goes a little lower. we're going to see what it looks like. what comes tied to that. is it lower return on capital? maybe some of these money centers that you never thought would be. maybe they got to where they

should be and that's it. we have to see what happens. i think it could take a pause makes a lot of sense. >> or continue their pause that they've taken or give back. meaning there are two ways you work it off. you either boring it off by time. that's what they are doing. or by price. they've done it by price. the financials are doing it by time. either way, it is not enough time. so the presumption is either sideways or down. >> by selling spreads, we are collecting a little premium each day. taking in that premium, it is pretty fair. >> got a question out there. send us a tweet. check out our website. and while you're there, check out the super cool news letter. a mix between catcher and the

rye and a beautiful mind. i don't know what you're waiting for. in the meantime, here's what's coming up next. >> just keep buying. >> that's what traders are saying about netflix shares. and there's something that suggests even more gains to come. plus, here's with a tech stops have been doing. if you miss the moves, we've got a way to profit and we'll show you how. me feopthmymyeaea

itiochacs. oth gu oro dfrenp,co?td d st welcome back. all eyes on netflix shares ahead of the earnings report on wednesday afternoon. adding another 3.5% on another

analyst upgrade. in part on competence, the results will exceed management guidance on subscriber growth. netflix projecting it would add 5.2 total streaming subscribers. 3.75 million from overseas. analysts say it will be $2.58 in revenue. netflix shares have been on the ride up a total of 8% this year after netflix won two golden globes for its new series the crown. just this week jpmorgan added netflix to its list. in addition to the all important subscriber number, investors are watching for insight into potential impact of the trump administration on regulatory issues and whether netflix will

integrate into more cable boxes agts has with comcast, and how that will boost its bottom line. of course we can expect to hear more about competition as apple is toward jump into the competition game. >> starting to think netflix could hit a new high on earnings? >> here's a before and here's an after. a well defined series of lower highs. then a massive breakout. you get into this and then bang. do you break out or not? here's the chart. here is the very well defined. you can see the presumption is, you see that gap there? that was a quarterly bead.

we're thinking you'll gap out of this. here's the set-up. nice. again. we're going to bet long. for a new all time high. >> what do you think in. >> well, deutsch bank. the stock is 133. so you know, a hold with a price target that's $20 below where it is trading. it is hard on evaluation basis. what are they trading times sales? but they aren't growing top line at 25 to 30%. much like we had amazon for the longest time, people aren't looking at the bottom line. what they're looking at is top line growth and most people tuned into their screens at night, this is likely what they're tuned into. someone will want to have that. what is interesting is going into earnings. this is a sfok moves very sharply on earnings. yet this time only with 8.5%.

it can be very expensive normally to buy options with you less expensive this time. i think the best way to plate is look at the 135, 155 call spread. you're spending 5% on a stock that normally moves more than 13%. you can rick just 5 to make the bullish bet. i think that's the way to play it. the options are setting up very nicely going into this catalyst for to you make a bet this way. >> if you're feeling wraif. that's the way to do with it the fine risks. this thing has moved. since it's gone public more than ten years ago, 10% in either direction. that's astounding for a company this size. i change my tune on this a little bit. it became a phenomenon and you

think about the ability to do it again and again. you think about the golden globes and hb getting blanked. who cares that apple is coming in. let's take it a step further. telephone, time warn he. and you think about that. what are they saying? $85 billion to vertically integrate. i've said this. >> before they start creating their own content and they were buying it from everybody else, content costs would compress the margins and nobody cares. that's the thing. we've learned our lesson here. apparently that's not what they're doing. >> the ability to predict earnings as documented is very low on wall street. either it will break out or exactly the opposite, back away. >> it will cost you $13,300. it could be worth as much as $2,000 if it gets to that. >> this is an options show.

that call spread has a much lower probability of successful you're risking less. here's the thing. if you bought it here and it goes down $7, you lose two more. the chances are, the much higher chance on the expiration, you'll be back in the money. >> the main point is that it is a binary bet and you'd better risk what you're going to lose. >> up next, one of the hottest trades of last year will cool off. we'll tell you what has him so nervous. inhain y y wn

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time to look back on some of our open trades. just last week, dan thought the tech would drive nasdaq to new highs. >> if you want to make a bet it will continue to break out, the

122 call when it was trading. it was offered at 220. less than 2% of the stock price. it breaks even at 124.20. >> the nasdaq closed at a record today. >> this goes back to our other conversation betting on earnings. you know the drill here, they're going to do something extraordinary. the qqq, they make with 40% of it. so this is a really cheap way the way option prices were. now to one of the hottest trades, cat piller. >> the one that i was looking at here is in caterpillar. i'm looking at the january 93, 89, buy the 93 strike putts and then sell one of the 89s and one of the 85s against it. that entire package will have a net dent of about 90 cents.

>> stock is pretty much flat. >> it is flat. what's interesting is where is the market? i think you stay here. the presumption that it has gone too far off its low. we can roll it out right now. you can roll it out. 92.5, 85, we're going to keep celebrating christmas here and have the same down side. the decay allowed it. >> up next, we made a big deal of the tenth anniversary of "fast money" but options has one of its own. ] fion÷÷

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welcome to the premier of options action. here's where the action is tonight. >> yes, eight years ago, a lot more hair. options action made its debut. night owls were watching back then. we were on at 11:00 p.m. we have a much better time slot and a much grander stage. risking those are make more. thank you for making this show the success that it is. here's to another eight years. >> if options is about timing, think about 2009. that's good timing to start something. >> absolutely. >> we saw it a couple months after we got started. back then, general electric trick owned the network.

that was one of the stocks that was in big trouble. obviously they have. there's a lot of educational materials on the web. great stuff. >> a great run. it looks like our time has expired. see you back here next my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. our playoffs, our championship. that's what earnings season means to me. it's a time