tv Fast Money CNBC January 30, 2017 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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>> i'm also be good to be watching under armor. this is one that has been hit since the election. >> apparel-related athletic is so bad that it's good. >> we'll know by this time tomorrow. we're coming back. we hope you are too. "fast money" begins right now. big businesses are thrilled with what's happening. the stock market has gone up massively since the election. everyone saying the market will go down. why is it not going down? the smart people know me. the business people know what i'm about. so the market went massively up. in fact, when i was elected, a lot of the really smart people went out and bought a lot of stock. and they've been rewarded. >> there you have it. president trump this morning talking to reportes about how
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great the stock market has performed since he was elected. but it wasn't all just today. the investment down 123 points before staging a late day rally, closing down just over half a percent. the s&p and nasdaq also sold off. in spite of everything, all three indices fell less than 1% leaving investors with a question. do you buy them in a slump or is the rhetoric from washington going on ruin this rally? >> he might roo the day that on january 30, 2017, he spoke about the stock market in such flowery terms. everybody is book marking that. number one. number two, massively up. i don't know fits massively up but that's for another time. in terms of the market, i didn't think it was such a bad day. the market was down close to 200 points, it came back. the vix within 12. i doesn't seem like peel are all
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that fearful. the three things i'm watching. steve talked about levels on friday. i'll give what i'm watching. the russell, as long it stays above 130, i'm fine. and goldman sachs is the last one. we talked about the potential for a double top. as long as that stays above 225, i think the goldman and then financial rallies intact as well. >> glass half empty or half full kind of day? >> i think it is a massive move, to be up. we're up as much as 11%. i think he's right when he says a massive move. what i found was extreme pressure, macy's, kohl's, nordstrom's, all of those stocks up today. is it a flight to crowd in?
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we can't say that. i think you watch the retail sector of the economy. that's where the market will go. >> i thought that today, this was not a trump dip that i would buy. it is great that the market is only down this much. i think we've run into a little bit of a wall in this rally. i'm kernconcerned about getting the things done. there's a lot of noise this weekend and today, and to me what's concerning is, if he gets tripped up in these things, and there are cracks in the republican party, which there seem to be, it will be really hard for him to get some of the other agenda done. the main part that drives this rally, taxes is a big one. certainly for financials. that is really important. the repatriation -- >> i don't have a problem with taxes. >> he won't be able to get to it until later. that's disconcerting. >> what is shocking for the market is to see someone struggle. >> the next thing after taxes is
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infrastructure. it will be really hard to get a big infrastructure built when you have a republican-the road looks longer and it doesn't look as clear. >> infrastructure will be bipartisan. tax reform will be bipartisan. >> you lose some republicans along the way. so -- >> in terms of the priorities and what he can get done and what will be the sequence of things, it probably won't be taxes. people will step away from fiscal sandal, i wouldn't expect it. the market is up 5.5% since the election. some of this is a relief rally from an spraenl there was a lot of uncertainty over. there is no question you can make an argument -- >> it is giving people to at least get excited. tax reform, tax cuts for corporations bringing money back is a great thing. either way you've had an
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opportunity to look at where stocks are. valuations and that's part of the problem. >> everybody thought hillary clinton would win the presidency. every poll had it wrong. every poll had her winning so everything after that fact that he won is all aremember the you'd to donald trump. you can't say we would have rallied this far with her as president. what my problem was, the inversion. as long as that doesn't happen. as long as we don't get pushed into a recession, i think the market is okay. all bets are off. >> everybody was talking about fiscal policy. the fact the global pmis, sxeg has made a return from june. nothing to do with donald trump. >> it has everything to do with trump. >> say that again? >> you or i and all of those reflation trades that you've been talking about has everything to do with president trump. >> you or i specifically.
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but not copper, some of the others. >> i said you or i. >> 80% before the attacks. >> hold on. >> you guys are going to disagree this until the cows come home. >> the cows aren't coming home. darn those cows. >> the spoinl from here on out, is it too simplistic to say, the devil is in the details. we've seen within the republican party disagreements of how to do a border adjustment tax. >> there will be many disagreements along the way. he has a bunch of pillars. >> i'm trying to take other side of this. i'm not trying to take any side. >> you can see buying opportunity which is where i stand. >> so you agree the road could be a little longer to the actual management of corporate tax reform and all those things which the rally has been built
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on. >> it was nowhere on the orrize object for eight years. we had our own other issues to deal with in the last two presidential cycles. >> one of the things that clearly has markets a little unnerved, you can't teletell me volatility was not up 16%. we've gotten to where the communication of policy has become a little bit unclear. to assume that it will be manage the markets will take lightly is kind of crazy. you have the fed meeting tomorrow and wednesday. you have a huge week for date. we've said this for weeks and you've said it too. there is complacency out there. to assume that this is something that the markets will be able to bat right through without a correction. we've talked about a 5% correction. all of these paid into, down 60 bits. this is not that big of a deal. probably great trading action. >> our next guest believes if you don't put money to work, as
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he senior global equity specialist. great to see you, scott. >> hi, melissa. >> so we're having a pretty heated debate today. >> you are having a heated debate. >> and the context of this, i want to say wiggle in the stock market because we're down less than a percent. the markets have rallied, the gains they've had to the election to mid december and then have gone flat since then. so how do you interpret today's sort of pause in light of that? >> well, i think a lot of people were looking for excuses. they wanted to say it was because of the immigration-related executive orders that donald trump signed. for me, the market has come up a decent amount. not mass yifl i totally agree guy there. since the election. and people were looking for a
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reason to take a little money off the table. we're down a half a peterson. probably with 100, 110 s&p points. net, you probably won't get much out of the market and you need to buy on the depps. >> i hear that you the executive order, that could in fact be noise. do you see it? the move that we've seen, massive or minor. was the move higher since the election? it was underpinned by the idea that there would be fiscal policy reforming and a big part would be corporate tax reform. can you see that it might be longer to enact? >> unfortunately, it looks, if you believe the rumors floating around today, that it might. and the market volatility
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pick-up, the vix had it at a ten handle. so i think any kind of talk about tax changes that would be put off until the spring of 2018, the market will get a l little uneasy about that. but the first week, ten days, they're taking low hanging fruitful they're doing the things they don't need votes in congress to get. over the next three or four weeks, we'll find out the cooperation level between congress and the president. and then we'll find out just what, if anything, might get done on these various proposals that would impact the economy. i don't think it will impact in it 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, sure. i doubt donald trump can change the direction of the economy in 2018. >> which of the sectors have to a great run?
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do you think offers the most opportunity on that pullback is this financials? tech? the inventory trade. >> i think you need on continue to focus sectors that will benefit from progression in this economy. we like the consumer discretionary sector on pullbacks, we like health care, industrials. we also like financials. so those are the ones to really focus. technology, we just cut to an even weight. if you're underweight in technology. that's the way we've been loaning. the half thing you want is for them to get defensive.
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we want something that will recover from recovery. >> what do we do today? >> the only thing did i today, i feel like the infrastructure trade is so into it. i feel like i got a little extra from that. it was a gift. no more you or i. >> i had a little mosaic. i think the names were down 5 to 10% over the last ten days. to me the fundamentals, i think you're getting some rebounding commodity. i think that stuff makes sense. pull back. >> what i didn't do is probably just as important as what i did do. i didn't sell stocks. i didn't sell my puoolty or kb homes. let's see before anyone shoots from the hip. >> way honey well traded, they've come all way back since
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that pre announcement. real quick, i think it was february or march of 2009 when president obama's first couple months in office, he actually commented on the stock market. i'm paraphrasing but it was something to the effect of, the stocks looked sort of cheap here and that marked the low. i remember saying, the president of the united states of the united states should not be talking about the stock market. and he was nowhere, what is the word i'm looking for? as effusive of the trade as president trump was today. up massively -- 6%. if it is you have 5 or 6%. >> it would be a massive move. >> when he moved, that was a massive time. >> hitting a more than one year high after morgan stanley said
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the disney franchise was out of the worth a. what has changed for the biggest sports network? plus, silicon valley speaking out against president trump's ban over the weekend and sparking what could be the beginnings of a bitter battle between trump and tech. and later, calling a must-own to earnings this week. he'll tell us what it is and how to profit. g whalhattes
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disney a rare bright spot, hitting its highest levels since 2015. raised the price target to 124. the firm calling the struggling sports franchise out of woods and into the game saying it sees potential for accelerated revenue growth. >> yes, morgan stanleyer upgraded the target. and they down graded the stock, for a lot of preens morgan stanley says not a big deal. i'll say this and steve has been right dings. it gets a premium valuation and
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one has to wonder. it is 110 now but i think you're swimming in the deep end of the pool. >> at love assumptions saying it is out of the woods. after about a 2% annual subscription erosion, espn over the last three years, he believes the risk is to the upside. >> but in the espn traffic -- >> the espn subscriber erosion. >> based on what? >> i don't know why that changes. if you think about the secular trends against these guys, part of it is the way it is getting sliced up and bundled. some of the product has gotten really ubiquitous. it is the underlike sports. people don't need on watch espn for a lot of it. disney thank goodness is a very, very diversified company. the consumer products businesses, they're all kicking it.
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really it and those are reasons to be excited. to say that espn will storm back. and upgrading it from the bottom, that's not helping me. >> it is interesting within the note, that the analyst entertains the idea of possible combinations. not really saying what he thinks will happen but saying if apple were to buy digs. if dwrins to buy netflix, that would be diluted. not really taking stand on it. just throwing it out there. these two possibilities. >> the apple disney seems to me beyond a stretch. the netflix, a stretch. it would be diluted. >> i wouldn't short it. it is a great company. it deserves a premium valuation. >> it is the king of content. if they keep smacking out these hits. tim just spoke about the other segments. the parks are a huge number now. it never used to be but it's
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climbing. no one can say we're at the end. but i think you're sort of in the middle where we've talked about these levels. >> 90-120. so we're, we have more risk to the downside. i probably wouldn't buy it here and let it get established. >> temper sealy which fell after it announced it was terminating its contract with mattress firm. >> it depends where the market is. this gives you some indication but to me part of it is the inventory levels and the household formation numbers are very much in a tail wind. i realized mortgage rates have moved since october with you they're still on an historic basis, even a recent basis, they're still very, very cheap. since the crisis. this is still a great time to go out and get a mortgage and banks
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are more inclined to lend than ever. if the yield curve is steeper, banks will lend even more. to say that they're in trouble, he didn't get out of his home builders and i didn't get out of mine. >> his, to rate is 7% on an historic basis. so they were spooked with this rate rise for home builders. it is a knee jerk reaction. you think rates going higher. but it is on the uptake. >> one more quick point and i think you would be -- >> are you in my head? i'm going on close my eyes. maybe you can't get in. >> what was the home could not truck down? a half a percent. >> what was home depot? up on the day is that within a whisper of an all time high and they reported i believe on february 21. and that to me has been the steadfast day. it's had a couple of hick-ups along the way. >> do you have memory foam at
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home? >> i have the thing with the number. you dial your number. >> select comfort. >> i really don't. >> anyway, home depot. >> i think it ral sbis the earnings release on the 21st. we're talking about a stock with an all time high. still ahead, airline stocks getting crushed. did any of our traders by the dip? in the meantime, here's what else is coming up. >> is a war brewing between trump and ceos? has tech ceos speak bout trump, we'll tell you which stocks can get snapped. plus, one energy stock that's a must for your portfolio. and he'll give you the names. o d ly r? hafi
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it was a down day many wall street, the dow falling as much as 223 points at the lows of the session, only to have a late day rally and close down by a half percent. $60 billion. that's how much market caps haved today this week. our trade letters tell us the names they're buying. plus, energy. the worst performing sector this year. fear not because commodities king says there's one big name for big profits. he'll give us what he calls a must-own stock. we start off with the growing tensions between president trump and silicon valley. hi, deirdre. >> that's right.
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and jeff bezos, the latest leader in tech telling his employees in an internal e-mail that this executive order is one we do not support. he said that amazon is exploring legal options and has declared a declaration of support for the washington state attorney general who will be filing suit against the order. he joins a chorus of other leaders. i'll list them out but it includes apple, google, netflix, among many others. these are just leaders of the biggest companies. and it is the tech world that has spoken out loudest and quickest against the travel ban. keep in mind that bezos isn't likely the last word either. this may just be the beginning of silicon valley's contentious relationship with the trump administration. the next move. according to reports, the new administration is looking, has created a draft executive order that is aimed at overhauling
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work visa programs. that includes the h 1 b program that many of the biggest companies in tech have relied on to recruit top fortune talent into the u.s. proponents argue that it is what keeps american tech companies competitive globally and it has brought in foreign workers that have led to apple, amazon, google, others, leading them to be the most valuable companies in the world. that may have something to do with why you saw tech stocks get hit hard today. immigration is an issue, not just deeply personal to silicon valley but it is critical to doing business. so the travel ban may have just again beginning. it may have been one head wind that they will have to brace itself for. >> thank you. so two questions here. you're a tech investor. should you be worried? and is this a risk to the stocks at this points? >> well, he has declared war.
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basically he has declared war on everybody who doesn't think like him. in terms of companies, it remains to be seen. he declared war on amazon and then made up with amazon. he declared war on google and now they're fine. i think price lien is a tech company. take look at how price line traded today. it sold off hard. came back, closed effectively on changed for the day. google, this was self-inflicted but google to me at 8.10. the recent high of basically 860. i think you buy google with both hands at 810. will he declare war? i don't think so. and if so, you'll get huge opportunities in the names. >> google is my biggest position. >> contentiousness.
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it is a risk. i love the company. i thought the earnings were positive. i know it didn't trade that way. i heard, the issue, should ceos make these kinds of statements and i think so. for these tax companies their assets are their people. so many of these people who are so important to them will be affected or afraid of what's coming from the trump administration. so to have a policy or statement that show their assets, we care about you and we'll do what we can i think is really important, even if it risks some other things. >> you know this h 1 b visas. the huff post ran an article in july 2016. it is a way they get cheaper programmers from abroad, and you should read, everyone should read this article. it was a way of circumstance u
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the talent that's already here. i don't think it has any bite. >> the visas, they won't be able to get proper talent here. >> so there's enough -- ph.d.s here in the united states. >> so what they have the united states workers train them and then they fire united states workers after. so they're good enough to train and smart enough to train them to do their jobs. >> you're saying, let's just deal with the ph.d.s in this country? >> i didn't say that and he didn't say that either. what he said was, who could be against taking breather and saying, let's make sure the people who are here will be here for the right intentions. who could argue with that? >> what you're saying is let's just use the ph.d.s we have. >> that's not what i said. >> are we talking about -- these global companies. >> are we talking about the executive order which is seven countries that are deemed terrorist countries and the
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visas are outside the executive order. >> he said he will deal with that as well. i think the technology companies are talking about that. not about what we saw today. they're talking about what it can lead to and the headline has been about the h 1 b visas. i think that's what they're worry about. not what they saw today. >> i think we get to a point. they will the defend tooth and nail their people. and my guess is, all the programmers at google and sxam amazon are people that, you know, should be here. and if they're not, they should not be here. i think it is that simple. and i think the cloims defend their people and try to remove what, at least yesterday over the weekend didn't seem like due process. president trump knows very well, the tech summit. you can say what was the purpose that day? ultimately, president trump knows this is the number one
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industry. the number one export of america. it is where we make a difference globally. if you mess with this, you'll mess with everything that makes america from an en58thive perspective right now. >> so trump needs them more than they need him? >> i don't think the president needs anybody. bla bla bla. the i think the president is there to govern. >> amazon going into this, a 10% implied options move. this could be an $80 move up or down. i'm nervous if you're a fwhaer amazon, that amazon could turn the spigots on. it is up year to date but i would be a buyer of amazon. still ahead, united, jet blue, getting hit today. make or break time for tech as
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the scenes at the airports, did they disturb you? >> well, i came as a young student. and went to school at night and working in the day. seven years later, became the kro ceo of a major company on wall and then at at ethan valley. where else would somebody with a name like al-farouq. america is great. we must give that opportunity to others as well. >> that was ethan allen ceo speaking to "mad money" jim cramer moments ago about the recent ban from president trump. that brings us to our move of the day. the index fell to the lowest in months. as well as another computer outage from delta. many of the major airlines are down 2017. united and delta down 2%. america is down 5%. jet blue is down 14. southwest has managed to eek out
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some dpanls. what is going on in. >> i think this is getting kind of interesting to buy. and again you have three factors. you had, first of all, remember, we were starting to get some rumblings. this is what you're worried about. as they get better. will they get hazy? all the smartest guys come on and talk to us. some of the other guys. so there was an announcement on friday. some concerns about capacity slippage and that's part of it. you had the glitch. you had the sail thing for delta and that has an impact. if going to the airport is a social experience and one that over the weekend was devastating, i think it has an impact. if you look at the airport stocks, a couple of them before today were resting or had gone through key resistance. so to me, friction on delta. i think you want to look at this stock to get back in.
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i think the capacity issues are the most important thing. i don't think they are going to be hurt. going forward, whatever is going on with advises and immigration, it won't take place at the airport. >> i still have my airline position. we had sold some calls to roll into this year. but i didn't do it today. i feel like the pullback isn't big enough. i don't know if it was the outage. i think it is an enormous run. they haven't come back enough to say they're chief again. i think it is with the outages. i don't want to see them persist. this was in hate 2016. it just happened now. so watch the average in any stock you want to buy in the airlines sector and wait until
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it captured it. >> you can catch the full interview with jim cramer and the airport ceo. this come ahead of a slew of big oil earnings. names reported this week inclco mobil. there's a bullish case to be made for crude as well as one of these names. so denial it is, what is your bullish case for crude? >> for the first time in weeks, actually for the first time in months, we're starting to see the term structure begin. and i always pay attention on what it is doing. it is beginning to narrow and i think what will happen here is that we're going to have whether we like it or not. we're going on get a border tax put into effect. that will have a material impact upon wti prices in the united states. the trades are 4 or 5%
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discounted to brent. you could take to it a 10% or 15% people aremium. that has a lot of implications. even if they take it to the a large premium, if you're using domestic crude oil, you can deduct the cost. if you're taking in foreign crude oil, you don't get to do that. so the impact will be material. valero gets all of its crude oil domestically. it will be at an vac. so the small producers will been get as the tax goes into effect. it goes to a premium. it is complicated but interesting. >> so you like valero. how about exxon? >> always as a hedger. if i had my druthers, i would
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rather not be involved with exxon. i would rather be involved with valero. long of valero and short of the multinationals. >> hey, will he me ask you, how much do you think is already in the spread? if we said tomorrow, no border tax, where would it go? >> it hasn't even begun to move yet. i think what is going to end up happening, the real trade to me is to buy wti. i think it is no more than 50 cents to the dollar. if it goes the other direction. it would be $10 or $12. it is probably 60/40. you have to remember that the people pushing for it are republicans out of texas. they're in a position to be able to put that into effect. clearly would it benefit their
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oil companies, for example. so i think the odds are 60/40. and i think the real big trade is to buy the spread. >> good to see you. thank you. >> thanks for having me on. >> how do you feel? do you think that some can stand out above the rest? >> in my opinion, you lump them all together. you mentioned, tomorrow after the bell. it was a big move. a really significant move after they priced the secondary device. it has sold off from the $73 level. i have to tell you something. people will knock this on valuation. it is a lever play. report tomorrow after the best. >> i think chevron's numbers were a big disappointment. to say that they were integrated, are not both very spemsive and have lugging around
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a ball and change. i agree with guy. i think the places you want to be are those names. and names that have a high operating leverage. prices going higher or buy those oil economies. those things at $60 oil, make a lot of sense. >> are any stocks a lot of energy? >> if that happens, they're exporters, that would be great. i'm skeptical that it happens. >> you have to stay with the a.p. space. then they're not producing here because there are cheaper prices abroad. so stay away from refiners. it has the best acre average in the sector. >> coming up, the one tech stock that can see $20 billion shift
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apple down slightly today ahead of its report tomorrow. what can investors expect from the report? breaking it down, a man we consider the apple of our eye. dom? >> that's very sweet of you. you can argue that the apple earnings report is the most important earnings report in our market. the most heavily weighted report. so with those earnings coming up tomorrow, here are some of the things the watchers will be expecting. for the estimates, it is $2.22 a share on $offensi. it could be a plus or minus 3% on the heels of that report. over the last eight reports,
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shares have been positive three times and negative five tames the day after. on the three positive days, the average gainful around 5.5%. on the negative days, the average loss was down about 4.2%. now we go to this earnings season and report with a little bit of a hot streak good on. it is up around 9% since the election. the analyst ratings snap shots has 80% who cover it. and the price target. about 133 and change. there you go. by the way, for those curious, apple has beaten estimates 15 of the last 16 quarters. what it will take to keep the motors running in that's the big question. if you missed any of the numbers, we've spoeftd them on twitter. >> thank you, don chu, the apple
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of our eye. >> i tell you what. i think the fiscal guidance is what this comes down to. i think people are not expecting that they will be fantastic. the asps probably hold up. and i think there's enough. the china factor, the growth in india. these are things people want to hear about. i think it is bakes into the price. >> i think there's a lot less reasons why you had to be in the ecosystem. i would have never thought about buying a samsung phone years ago. now it is stream services, people used to stay with it because of their itunes. you had your mac book. you plugged it in. now you have streaming, netflix for movies, every other streaming for music. there's less and less reason to fall in love with apple and stay
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there. there are value playeders but the encemeteriable buyer is w, e incremental buyer. >> knowing there might be a need to get rid of inventory. >> you've seen it before. >> and i've not been some cdc apple bull. one of the things i thought would happen, the stock continued to rally. maybe we test the all time high in the middle of 2015. it could be very interesting for the closet technicians out there. so he mentioned a 5.5% move. on $120 stocks about, $7. that puts to you $129 or so. it gets very interesting. >> apple isn't the only tech stock with earnings. it is big moves for all three
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companies. with the action, hi. >> yes. so he was mentioning that the implied move in spam about 3.2%. facebook is expecting a move of about 4.8 percent and amazon, about 4.9%. collectively if they moved that amount, that would be a market cap we know is of about $57.9. the average moves have been substantially higher, which is the number that steve grasso was alluding to. they mean reporting has already been baked into the cake. not pants participating a lot of surprises. the companies themselves are very large. >> all right. thank you. let's play would you rather. >> fantastic. >> all right. >> facebook.
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he know, i think the value as well. i like that business model better. i was not so delighted with how google traded going up. i think we can see further expense increase. that's okay. my book. >> nobody else can play by the way. i get to say who plays. we don't have time. you may have noticed how active dry ships have been. stock is up 50% sense the close. why this move? and a warning after this break. he wainhrery.edlelllly,isp heheanea
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you may have noiftd how active dry ships has been. we don't normally talk about penny stocks but dry ships is one of the most active names among retail traders. so karen has warned the public about the stocks. >> why this move? >> it was 100 when we talked about it. it's up because they placed $200 million of stock with a firm
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that may have already sold it to the public. that's what the per speck tuesday looked like to me. if you're buying it because you think, somebody just bought $200 million worth of stock. no. i think they were hoping it to who they thought would be the bigger fools. so like lisa's brother, think about that. >> lisa's brother? >> don't buy dry ships. it is probably going higher. you have to be crazy to get involved with it. >> time for the final trade. >> i think airlines are done. delta at sfrik worth jumping back in. >> before you or i sold it, i think the pricing structure is already in. >> kohl's. a huge dressing down. i think q1 will look a lot better. >> fun.
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f-u-n. dry ships is back. do you know what else? honeywell. >> we only have 10 seconds. meantime, meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. when things are happening fast with a president who has a pro-business agenda, the market will lap it u
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