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tv   Options Action  CNBC  February 10, 2017 5:30pm-6:01pm EST

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welcome to "options action." another busy week for the market. >> i love gold! >> and with good reason. while gold miners are on fire, there is another metal words betting on now. we'll tell you how to profit. plus, miss the tech rally? well, we've got the one name that can catch up to the market. and it is the one question every
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investor is asking. >> that is question. >> no. which stock will hit $1,000 first? amazon or alphabet? and there are some clues in the options market. we'll explain. the action begins right now. >> let's get right to it. all three indices at new stellar highs. technology, the best year to date up 6% in trade at an all time high. the big question is, do you stick with tech? >> you probably do. obviously apple playing a little catch up has helped a lot. when fang really happened, i know netflix was the only one that broke out after earnings but the rest of them got kind of stalled at the prior highs. i think you have the set-up where none of the results were
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that bad. facebook and amazon, we're talking about spending. throws the things they should be doing. the fact they have consolidated their gains near those highs is a pretty bullish thing. if we don't have a rejection, you probably want to stick with it. >> alphabet too. i think the results were very, very sol and i had that seemed to stall out. i think a lots of other businesses would have said, in the past, if you had seen results like that, you would have expected a larger move to the upside. >> it is almost remarkable how similar the set-up is. you have facebook, right to a prior high. it reports its number. considered good. can't move ahead. glr nvidia today. same thing. and then quite good. ibm and so forth. the question is what to do with those few are left? they might have been in a information either fail at the breakout or break out. >> and you're looking at one in particular. >> let's look at facebook. one of the last ones to report
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krisco is well below the four quarter average. er the ten quarter average move after earnings is actually much higher. bits 10.5. a lot of complacency in the market. we know they have a massive commitment to capital return. the other thing really caught my eye a couple weeks ago, when they bought a company worth $3.7 billion. the biggest technology ipo of the year. i suspect they're doing it out of a position of strength. they want to diversify away from their legacy businesses. it is been a drag on the business. but then they have a situation where the ceo has a seat at the table. they're talking good regular sxlags infrastructure spending, here's company that'll should benefit. so i'm not expecting a whole heck of a lot. i think you want to look out for
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a name lying this. we have a couple charts. 32. that was the prior high. coastal flail next week. i'm not playing for a breakout immediately like that. if you look at the long term chart, we have it going back to 2000. there's just room. here's the thing. i think you want to look to the june expiration. and when the stock was traded today at about $31.50, 32, 36. about a dollar for that. you're breaking it up at 33. you can make between $3 and $36. here's the reason for this trade structure is that june, i'm not going to get a heck of a lot of decay on these options unless the stock goes down a lot. but 32. that's the breakout point. >> there's a little people are grum will come out after the earnings report. you will look to spreads
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options. they are not elevated but maybe slightly elevated. this is a company that generates a tremendous amount of free cash flow. and the stock repurchases over time, you're talking about earnings per share growth at 3.5%. those are attractive multiples. >> i'm surprised you didn't ask about selling such a cheap option. >> because it is june. it is so far out of money. url buying one for $1.final. if you ever had the move, you would probably roll that at some point. we were talking about. this a really important point. the implied move is about the price of that june call spread. right? so next week. if you were going to play the binary event which we won't do, you would be risking about the same amount as you are. >> the had things dan is trying to do two things. one is technical and the other is fundamental. he is hoping the fundamentals will not have a failure at the high which in fact that's what you bet on three times.
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you bet that amazon will not break out. correct. that facebook would not, correct. so in a pure sense if you were going with, that would you make the bet that it will happen again. you are hoping that you know something in addition to the chart that would impute a result up. i'm going with the stats. i would suggest you'll be right fourth time. >> my point is as long as it doesn't go down 10%. >> to another group of stocks that had been merging. interest gdx is now at 20% this year and it is part of a shining story in the commodities. metals have been on a tear in 2017. silver, platinum, comer. er copper with its bester in a year. gold not far behind.
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h even more gains to come. >> let's go to the screen here and see if we can figure it out. a lot of leverage in equity versus a commodity. just to put the context before we get to the name itself. what we know is you have this huge congestion. this is all raw industrial xl commodities. then you have this plunge. this epic recovery. had so keeping in mind that set-up, and we've recovered all the way back in raw commodities, now we have the same thing. here. freeport has not. either that's the opportunity or one could think it is not because it is not going to make it. it has exhausted itself. to put in it context with the notion we've gotten all the way back from the point chat we plunge, whereas that's not the case for a leading commodity
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equity at freeport. so one way to draw the lines. we've broken above the down trend. another way, a head and shoulders bottom. this was a 20% correction. i looks like nothing. it was a 20% correction. we've reasserted ourselves again. let's zero in. let's go to the one year. okay. how do you draw lines? how about like this? take it away. put it back. and now let's put on the long term chart. so we have our head and shoulders bottom. we've got this above the down trend line. i think we'll throw back which would get us more in line with where the commodities in aggregate already are. >> what's your trade are to back this view? >> i would look to the i am a 6
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16.19. you could sell it for 42 cents. the company is about half dead, half equity. that elevates options premiums. will plus they have had sharp moves. you do need to look the spreads. bear in mind you're still dealing with a sbrepread about of the current stock price. so you're giving yourself some room. >> for a stock that's up 300% in the laugh year, you almost have to spread it. it makes some sense. i can't get linlds the fundamentals. i don't know had a is making these -- >> copper? >> we were talking about chesapeake last night. a huge call roll. very similar looking for a check back to a certain level here. people are reaching for these. >> there was a 20% check back. it works off the position.
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>> 70%, up 40%. obviously, oil, gold, 10% respectively. dollar, probably running out of a little gas here. which would have been one of the bigger head winds. so all of those might be why you make bullish bet. i look at the 14 level. maybe it gets down there. maybe that was some level of support. then you might look the on sell. >> whatever is going to happen in the equity market plus or minus, this is an accel rant. >> how inverse -- >> you see the long term chart. the identical chart. >> and then tfks kithe supply issue. >> and then on top of potential supply issues if you happen to be subscribing to check growth.
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are it is a levered play. >> got a question throughout? send as you tweet. >> reporter: che. >> what are you waiting for? here's what's coming up next. >> it's the race to $1,000 between amazon and alphabet. plus -- ♪ sailing >> quietly, one group of stocks have hit new highs. and the charts suggest there are even more gains to come. we'll tell you what they are when options action returns. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry,
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i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade.
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what?pony neighing] hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim.
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only at td ameritrade. two tech titans are locked if an amazing race. who will get to 1,000 first? the story from san francisco. >> hey. well, if we go by what the street thinks, alphabet will get there first. price toorgts both stocks have been creeping toward $1,000 mark. the momentum has been with google's parent company over the last few months. the median target on amazon has stagnated around $932. while alphabet's has climbed to $990. breaking it out further, you see that amazon has 38 buy ratings. within this number, three analysts have put their targets above $1,000. looking at alphabet, you will see 43 buys.
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more than 90% calls like amazon. here's the difference. 19 analysts within this number have targets of $1,000 or more. if past performance is any hints who have will get there first. consider amazon's shares have returned more than triple over. would it reset the rate. if and when amazon or ifalphabe hit the 1 k mark, would it join the exclusive mark has only four members. back to you. >> thank you. so where do the options markets stand in the alphabet versus amazon the race to 1,000? >> when you're looking at the options markets, two things we want to consider. the first is is the options market expecting a really big implied move in the near future?
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the other is, is the flow bullish or bearish? >> right now it is trading around 7% to the current price versus 6% for alphabet. that is telling us the options market expects amazon to move more sharply than alphabet. when we look at what the flow is looking like, we see that bullish bets outnumber bearish ones by about 10%. whereas bullish bets are outnumbering the bearish by 10%. will so it is more bullish with google. when we take a look here, we're trying to target 1,000. you know what's interesting is options are pretty cheap in here. i think the trade you might want to make is buying the april 840 calls. $2250 for a contract might seem expensive. but bear in mind, it costs you almost $84,000. only 3%, the upside is where it
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will take for this trade to make any money. if it went down by more than 3%, that would be the risk. that's all you're going to be taking here. up by 3% in 3 months time. >> two things. do you agree with mike which will make it first. ly get that it is a small price. >> a thousand dollars. when i look at google and the profitable they have versus amazon who is expected to have $165 fwhl sales this year with not a lot of profitable on that. i would have to go with google. will it is one times that expected growth. i think that's a tough game to play. of options are so cleem. if you want to replace the stock
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and have a down side stock. it makes sense. i don't think that google is that squeezy at the moment without a catalyst, it will go straight up. it was generally 5 sxabl they were unable to move. it is the bigger company by a lot. it maybe has the potential to get there quicker can. what we know is that on a long term basis, amazon is reallied handily outperformed google since google ipo in 2004. i'm going with google. >> aside from just the race between these two companies, one of the things cheap options are affording you is the ability to press bullish bets after the market continues to hit records. we have any kind of a market setback. it is likesly going to be these companies. the same ones that guided us up here. you can expect to see in stocks
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like these. only risking 3% to make a bullish bet. to me that makes a lot of sense. >> the other things despite all the headlines, take october 1 to present. just before the election. had it is well behind market. having swooned so badly in the november-december time frame. >> do you agree that if it. >> goes down 5%, these stocks will do the same? >> amazon with a $400 million market cap. it is so far off the charts. people can't think of a way to sell it. it is about 10ers of the total sales. they'll have a lot of things. a.i. services that you can rent f for pennies on the dollar. there is a whole lot more on google. i expect amazon on the down side. >> they don't own that space
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exclusively. obviously alphabet. there is pricing pressure in the cloud space right now. so it is not all going to be a straight shot to the moon from here. coming up, it's been smooth sailing for crude stocks. hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade and the wolf huffed like you do sometimes, grandpa? well, when you have copd,
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well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. last month, colin carter saw smooth sailing ahead for carnival. >> when he was here in 2005, it was a p.e. of 25. now it is 15. i think it breaks out. it has long term the opportunity. a buyer of ccl. >> i think the way to play this is to look to april. i was looking at 48, 55.
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it sounds like mouthful. >> the stock is up more than 3% since then so carter, do you still like the chart? >> that's. sounds paltry. er it has a nice pop on the earnings. >> do i. it is run through the 55 long strike. this is a trade you can stick with. they're decaying about the same rate. so it is a good position. >> and last week, disney made a bullish bet. >> specific will you what i'm looking at, the february/march 115 call spread. you can buy the march calls. you can sell the fed for 60 cents. a net debit of just 65 cents. >> so the trade expires next week. what do you do? >> if you wanted to, you could have covered that thing. it was ofd at 2 cents earlier this week.
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there won't be a big catalyst before march expires and i was looking at selling teeth 105 or 100 strike puts if it shows a little weakness and then you can offset the remaining premium. >> would you do that? >> as far as the trade, i don't know if you go and add more risk to it. it didn't kill you one way or the other. >> all right. up next, your tweets and the final call. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat?
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in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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hthis bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade james asks, what's the best way to get vix exposure? >> well, definitely if you're looking for long exposure to the vix, what you want to buy is puts on s.p.y. right now it is quite cheap. i think that's the way you want
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to play it. >> next up, dan, given your conviction on krisco. >> i would rather define my risk and make a bet out of a few months rather than a binary event. >> all right. and here's one last one. here's the one that we actually get kind of often. why doesn't carter worth have twitter? >> you want to on add more work to my workday. i know it is very effective. >> you want to be associated with a bad stock. >> you guys can follow him at google plus. >> we're talking right now. >> time for the final call. >> i like freeport. >> mike? >> i would use call hf spreads.
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>> in an earnings trade. you don't do it days before. look at the price right before the event. >> it looks like our time has expired. we'll see you back here next friday for more back here monda for "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. is it a trump day? l, or is it not a trump day? maybe it's just kind of a trump day, meaning a session where

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