we're live at the nasdaq market site. it was another busy week for the market. the guys here making sense of it all while getting ready. here's what's coming up on the show. >> i love gold. >> with good reason. while gold miners are on fire there's another metal worth betting on now. we'll tell you on a profit. plus, missed the tech rally? well, we've got the one name that could catch up to the market and get your portfolio back in the game. and it's the one question every investor is asking -- >> to be or not to be, that is the question.

>> no. which stock will hit $1,000 first, amazon? there's some clues in the options market. the action begins right now. let's get right to it. all three major in decks hitting new record highs again today rounding up another stellar week for stocks. at the center of it all technology, best performing year-to-date, up 6% trading all-time high. the big question is do you stick with tech. let's get in the money right now. your thoughts, dan. >> you probably do. obviously apple playing a little catchup over the last few weeks has helped a lot. a lot have happened, netflix the only one you nailed that broke out after earnings. the rest of them got stalled at their prior highs. to me i think you have a setup here where none of the results that are bad. really on facebook and amazon we're talking about spending. those are the things they should be doing, stocks at all-time

highs. the fact stocks consolidated gains near highs is probably a pretty bullish thing. if we don't have a he jex, stick. >> results very, very solid and that also seemed to stall out. i think a lot of other businesses would have said in the past if you had seen results like that you would expect a move to the upside and that's a reasonable valuation. >> we talked three weeks straight you have facebook a high, reports its number, considered good, can't move above. amazon identical prior top. then there's ibm and so forth. the question is what to do with those few left obviously that might be in a position to either fail at the breakout or break out. >> you're looking at one in particular. >> let's look at cisco. this is one of the last big ones to report. one of the things interesting about this one, first things first, they report wednesday after the close, the implied move 3 1/4, below four quarter

ample. the quarter move after earnings is much higher. this is a function of 10 1/2, a lot of complacency in the market. here is the thing when i look at cisco trading 13 times, massive commitment to capital return, the other thing that really caught my eye a couple week ago is when they bought this company called app dynamics for $7 million on the eve of their ipo. the biggest technology ipo of the year. i suspect they are doing this out of a position of strength, want to diversify from legacy business. it's actually been a drag on the business. they also have a situation where their ceo actually has a seat at the table with the new president, a seat. when they are talking about tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending here is a company that should benefit. on the quarter next week i'm not expecting a lot but you want to play for a breakout, a couple right to the point, 32, that was

the prior high. it could fail there next week. i'm not playing for a breakout immediately like that. if you look at long-term chart look back to 2000, there is room to the upside, if they are able to consolidate gains and break out. here is the thing you want to look to june expiration, catch the next earnings report. when the stock was trading today at 3150 you could buy june 3236 call spread paying a dollar for that. that is your max risk. break even up at 33, make between $3, 33 and 36. here is the reason for this trade structure here, june i'm not going to get a whole heck of a lot of decay on theoptions uns the stock goes down a lot. 32 that's what i want to own. >> there is strength that will come out after earnings report, look at spreads options. not elevated but slightly elevated will be a way to have i describe it.

here is a company that creates tremendous cash flow repeated -- talking earnings per share, those are attractive multiples. >> i'm surprised you didn't talk about selling such a cheap option. >> to that point, it's june, so far out of the money. you're buying one for $1.15 and selling one for $0.15. if you had the move you'd roll that at some point, the short strike option. mike and i were talking about this, important point, the implied move is about the price of that june call spread, right? so next week -- so if you were just going to play the binary event, which we're not going to do, you basically would be risking the same amount as for the june call spread. >> the important thing, dan is trying to do two things. one is technical and one is fundamental. he's hoping overlay of fundamentals will maybe not have a failure at the high, which, in fact, that's what you've bet on three times.

amm amazon would not break out, correct. facebook, correct. you would make the bet this would happen again. you were thinking or hoping you'd know something in addition to the chart that would impute result. i'm going with the stats and suggest you're going to be right a fourth time and it's not doing to break out. >> just real quickly. my point is that as long as a stock doesn't go down 10%, i think this trade is okay. it's not a binary trade on earnings event. i'm looking at a few months. >> to other stocks surging, miners, posting eighth straight week of gains, which by the way has never happened before. gdx up 20% this year. all part of a shining story in commodities, face metals on a tear in 2017. silver, platinum, copper up double digits. copper missouriing its best week of the year. aluminum and gold aren't far behind, prospective 9 and 7%. carter says more to come and one

particular gain. >> yes, let's go to the screen and see if we can figure it out. a lot of leverage in equity versus commodity. just to put the context before we get to the name itself, what we know is you have this huge congestion. this is all raw industrial commodities, things melissa mentioned, like nickel and steel, rebar, copper. then you have this plunge, epic recovery, back to the point at which you plunge. keeping in mind that setup and we've recovered all the way back in commodities. now we've got the same thing here. but freeport has not. so either that's the opportunity or one could think maybe it's not because it's not going to make it. it exhausts itself. let's draw a few lines in context, with the notion we've gotten all the way back from the point in which we plunged, whereas that's not the case for leading commodity equity freeport. so one way to draw the lines.

we've broken above the down trend. another way you could draw the lines. head and shoulders bottom. this is a 20% correction. looks like nothing. it was a 20% correction. then we've reasserted ourselves again. let's zero in on this timeframe. five-year chart. let's go to one year. okay. how do you draw the lines? how about like this? take it away. put it back. now let's put that on long-term chart. so we have our head and shoulders bottom. we've got break above this down trend line. i think we're going to throw back, which would get us more in line with where the commodities and aggregate already are. >> what's your trade that would back this view? >> i would look to the april call spread, $1.32 for 16 strike calls and sell 19s against it for $0.42. this is a situation the company is half debt, half equity. that actually elevates options

premium commodities themselves had sharp moves. that justifies volatility. you do need to look to spreads to oset that decay. bear in mind you're still dealing with spread 20% of the stock price so giving your self room to run, which is exactly what you want to do in a stock like this. >> i would say for a stock up 300% in the last year you almost have to spread it, can't buy options outright, if you get one wrong, the idea of paying $0.90 to make 210 and have a move back up to that resistance level that makes sense. i can't get behind fundamentals. i don't know what's making these things -- here is the thing. we were talking chesapeake, call rule, looking back to a certain level here. people are reaching for these things. >> if you had 20% checkback just four months ago, works off the condition. >> 0% of your revenues from copper, up 40%, okay, obviously

oil, gold, 10% sharply. dollar probably running out of a little gas here, which would have been one of the bigger head winds. all those things are the reasons you might continue to make a bullish bet. obviously if it pulls back the thing you want to do then, look at the 14 level, down there, some level of support. recently then you might look to sell to offset. >> not for the feint of heart. whatever is going to happen in the equity market plus or minus, this is ansell rant either way. it's idiosyncratic. >> how correlated is the brand to copper and how in verse -- >> long-term chart -- >> of course there's the kicker of supply issues, right? there are strikes of nine. that puts copper higher today. >> on top of potential supply issues if you happen to be subscribing to economic growth and that helps as well. leverage play, options are a

good way. >> send us a tweet "options action." for everything "options action" check out website "options action".com and sign up for super cool newsletter. thousands have so far so what are you waiting for. here is what's coming up next. it's the race to $1,000 between amazon and alphabet. a clue in the options market that could help you call the race. plus -- ♪ sailing. >> quietly one group of stocks have hit new highs. the chart suggests there are even more gains to come. we'll tell you what they are when "options action" returns. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head.

i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade.

what?pony neighing] hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat.

it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. two locked in an amazing race, alphabet and amazon less than $200 away from hitting $1,000 a share. the question is who will hit it first. deidra with the story from san francisco. hi, deirdre. >> hi. stocks creeping toward the $1,000 but momentum with google's parent company over the last few months. medium target has stagnated around $939 while alphabet has climbed to $990.

breaking it up further you see amazon has 38 buy rating. within this number three analysts have put their targets above $1,000. looking at alphabet, 43 buys, 90% of calls amazon. 19 have targets of $1,000 or more. if past performance is any hint as well who will get there first, consider amazon shares have tripled over alphabet and beating them this year. of course a stock split for either stock if that were to happen would reset the rate. if and when amazon or alphabet hit 1k mark, it would join a very exclusive club that right now has four members, price line, nbr, seaberg and berkshire hathaway. >> thank you. where do the options market stand in alphabet amazon race to $1,000. let's get to mike for a call to

action. >> looking at options market two things to consider. first is the options market expecting a big implied move in the near future and the other is is the flow basically bullish or bearish. we're going to take a look at both of these. amazon now, three-month 3% versus 6% for alphabet. options market expects amazon to move more sharply than alphabet. however, if we take a look at what that flow looks like. bullish bets outnumber by 10% with alphabet while bearish outnumbering bullish by amazon. the flow is definitely more bullish in google. so when we take a look here, we're basically trying to target $1,0 $1,000. what's interesting opgsz are cheap. the trade april calls $22.20 for

contract. 2250 for a contract might seem expensive. 100 shares of cost cost $184. 3% upside make this trade to make money. if it went down by more than 3%, that would be the risk. that's all you're going to be taking. up by 3% in just over two months' time, i kind of think this is the way you want to make your bullish bet here. >> two things, do you agree with mike on which one will make it first. second, i get it's a small cost in relation to stock cost for $22 seems a lot. >> $1,000, if we had this conversation, first one to trillion dollar market cap we'd have a conversation. google expected to have $88 billion sales growing 20% year over year and profitability they have versus amazon expected $165 billion in sales this year with not a whole heck of a lot of profitability on that, to me i'd have to go with google, google

trades 20 times, basically a fee of one time that expected growth. here is the thing. i think that's a tough game to play. as far as mike's trade. not too different with cisco. options are so cheap if you want to replace stock or do a stock alternative and have a downside stock it makes sense. you also want to target that next earnings event. i don't think google is that squeezey at the moment where without a catalyst it will go straight up. >> both have the same action in earnings. both favorable yet unable to movement it's the bigger company by a lot. google has potential to get there quicker. also know on long-term basis amazon is really handily outperformed google since google ipo in zero 4. i'm going with google. >> aside from just the race between these two companies one of the things cheap options affording the ability to continue to press bullish bets after the market continues to

hit records. we have any kind of market setback it's very likely going to be these companies, the same ones that guide us up here will take us back down. 5 to 10% in the market, those are the declines you would expect to see in stocks like these. only risking 3% to make a bullish bet, that's essentially the risk you're offsetting. to me that makes sense. >> despite all the headlines, this is the best performing sector on the year, october 1 to present just before the election, big tech is still well behind market. this is just a catchup trade, so badly in the november, december period. >> do you agree with the premise if the market declines 5% these stocks will go down about the same. >> the sentiment in a stock like amazon $400 million is so off the charts. people can't think of a reason to sell it. they talk about the next coming ever 10% of their sales. it is a great product. they are going to have a lot of things. ai services you can rent for pennies on the dollar.

amazing, amazing things but there really hasn't been any sanity in the valuation of that name while there's a whole heck of a lot more on google. amazon on the downside. >> they don't own exclusively alphabet competing in it, microsoft certainly attempting to. there is pricing pressure in the cloud space right now. so it's not all going to be a straight shot to the moon here. >> coming up, it's baseball smooth sailing for stocks in the last year. chart master says there are more gains to come. he'll tell you why when "options action" returns. hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go!

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get symbicort free for up to one year. visit saveonsymbicort.com today to learn more. so we know how to cover almost alanything.ything, even a "truck-cicle." [second man] how you doing? [ice cracking] [second man] ah,ah, ah. oh no! [first man] saves us some drilling. [burke] and we covered it, february fourteenth, twenty-fifteen. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart.

well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. welcome back to options. time for total recall. we take a look back at open trades. last month coen carter saw smooth sailing ahead for carnival. >> when he was here in '05, it was pe of that now 15. acts right relative has long-term opportunity of being an underperformer. >> so i think the way to play this is to look out to april. i was looking at april 48, 55, 57 1/2 call spread risk

reversal. sounds like a mouthful. >> stock up more than 3% since then so carter. >> sounds pretty paltry, 3%. >> it's good. a nice pop on its earnings, extra point on pullback. >> mike. >> yeah, i do. one thing, it's actually run through that 55 long strike. i think we can actually consider adjusting it. this is a trade you can stick with because we're short those two, same rate as the option long so this is a good position. >> now to disney last week mike made bullish bet on mouse house ahead of earnings. >> specifically what i'm looking at is the february/march 115 call spread. you can buy march calls for 125, you can sell for $0.50. a net debit of $0.65. >> first leg of the trade expires next week. mike, what do you do? >> if you wanted to you could cover that thing offered at $0.02 early this week, still 115. not a big catalyst before march

expires. i was taking a look at potentially selling puts if it shows weakness here and offset remaining premium. i think that also is a good position to be in. >> would you do that? >> here is the thing, as far as the trade, i don't know if you go and add more risk to it. you had kind of the right idea. you didn't get the move, kill you one way or the other. i don't know what he says but this thing feels like -- >> feels out of steam and good news. >> up next your tweets and final calls from the options pits. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat?

in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.

hthis bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade time for tweets. james asks what's the best way to get vick exposure, calls, puts on the straddle. mike. >> definitely if you're looking long exposure for vick puts on sby, spikes, when the market goes down, sby are quite cheap. i think that's the way you'd

want to play that. >> next up, dan, given your conconviction on cisco, why motte buy a risk reversal. >> that's a good question. we started the section talking how cheap options were. i don't want to sell cheap downside options, i want to do that rather than play the binary event when the stock could be down. >> here is the last one, the one we actually get kind of often. why doesn't carter have twitter? >> well, you want to add more work to my work it sounds like. i know it's very effective. but stocks not doing well. >> you don't want to be associated with badly performing stock. >> follow him at google+. >> we're talking right now. >> time for the final call, last word from options deck. >> i like freeport, play alongside, nice gains. >> mike. >> i would use call spreads in

freeport one of the few places options premiums slightly elevated. >> quickly in an earnings trade don't do it days before look at the price right before the event. >> looks like our time expired, i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. i'll see you friday for options and see you monday. madmoney.cnbc.c"mad money" star. [ male announcer ] 20 years ago, millions of people in over 80 countries discovered a revolution that rocked the fitness world. one of the most successful tv fitness products ever became a worldwide phenomenon -- the abdoer. ♪ i love it! this is really a lot of fun. it feels really good. i never realized that a machine could work out your abdominals