if you look at the top five right now those massive growth tech stocks, maybe we had too many of our bets in one place. just like in 07 it was all in banks. >> see you tomorrow. "closing bell" is over. "fast money" begins now. "fast money" starts right now, live from the nasdaq markets. i'm melissa lee. tonight on fast. the man who moves markets and call the trump rally says a market accident is ahead. he's here to explain what has him so worried. one of the big ipo is about to hit the market. and later oil is doing something very unusual and it could be sending a bad warning sign to energy stocks. we'll explain. but first we start with the press conference that stopped

trading on wall street. john? >> reporter: president trump news conference was wild and wide ranging. he railed against his press coverage. said military action might boost his popularity and insisted the rollout of his travel ban was perfect until a bad court decision stopped it. overall donald trump said his white house is running like a fine-tuned machine pointing to behind the scenes progress on cutting taxes and replacing obamacare. >> so we begun preparing to repeal and replace obamacare and are deep in the midst of negotiations on a very historic tax reform to bring our jobs back, to bring our jobs back to this country big league. >> but the president also acknowledged the heat he's feeling from a series of controversies most notably investigations into interactions with russia that are among other things resulted in his firing his national security adviser

michael flynn this week. the president said he wasn't aware of any contacts between his campaign and russian intelligence but conceded the distractions take energy away from its policy agenda. >> you take a look at reince, he's working so hard just putting out fires that are fake fires. they're fake. they're not true and isn't that a shame, because he'd rather be working on health care, he'd rather be working on tax reform. >> reporter: still the president said he'll have an obamacare plan ready to move in early march and a tax plan after that, guys. >> thank you very much, john. certainly everybody was watching this press conference. everybody has an opinion about what happened in the press conference, how it sounded, how he sounded. does it really not matter, though, what he says as long as the magic words of tax reform comes out of his mouth? >> i'd like to think it matters what he says, but i think to answer your question clearly it doesn't matter what he says because the market closed

unchanged. if you had told me this morning that this press conference would take place hour and a half seekingly rambling at times, it makes about right sense, vix was down. and s&p closed unchanged so the market doesn't really seem to care what he says or doesn't say. to your point i think the market is laser focused. can he get all these tax cuts through? >> it matters to me. we've heard this tax thing multiple times. i'm not buying it right now and so to reflect that in what i do, i want to be long s&p puts, bought back some of the nearer ones effectively getting the shorter. i've sold some bank calls against what i own. i shorted some xlf. i am sceptical that he's able to get something done. i don't think you can continue to have a portfolio so bullishly

sort of i guess moored by he's going to do tax reform soon because i'm so skeptical. when you talk about how contentious the border adjustment tax is. coke brothers on one side, you have much of his party on the other side with the coke brothers and then him, we don't even know exactly where he is. that this is going to get resolved in the very near future with all the rest of the stuff, i'm so skeptical of that. i think the market will come around. >> someone may remind this genius that past performance is not indicative of future. >> you think that's -- >> it's laughable. if you think tax reform is not baked into the cake as far as s&p are concerned and why stock prices go sky high. you can't do infrastructure spending if you don't have all this other stuff come together. it's also funded by the border

tax. there's a lot of things that has to happen and when you look at him, you don't inarticulate he is in the middle of the trading day when we are stopping doing real work and listening to him just ramble on. >> entertainment. >> production across the planet just went down we lost a lot of brain cells. you talk about the s&p 500 where it is right now, i think that tweet that he sent out this morning calling this russian situation fake news, i think there's 200 points in the s&p 500 at some point in 2017 for that sort of bs because i think the market's dangerous. >> even with all of what he said today for an hour 20 minutes the markets hung in there disclose record highs and the dow closed at a record high. >> dan said at the very top of really great comment of what you started saying, you said, let's not give trump credit. i don't disagree with you. let's not give him credit. we're at record highs.

we're at record highs across the board. if tax reform comes in, if repatriation comes in and i don't think all those things are necessarily all priced in, when you look at the moves that we're getting right now. it's the financials. how did they do in their earnings report? the tech companies -- >> i agree that if it actually comes to pass there's more to the upside but to me it's pricing in the likelihood of it coming to pass. >> they're pricing that in in the second half of the year. we're one month into this presidency and everybody -- i heard guys today complaining some of the news folks were talking about, we're -- you guys actually had a guest on who was sitting there, he's been there for 30 days, he hasn't gotten a lot done. 30 days that's the measurement of the presidency so far. >> in two to three weeks we're going to have a phenomenal tax plan. he said it. >> a tax plan. >> he's done nothing other than take the dejietize the opposition of which is the press, he will refuses to

acknowledge the fact that he does not have a mandate -- >> whether or not you believe current stock market prices reflect fully pricing in a tax plan or not fully pricing in a tax plan. >> it's not reflected enough. i think they're reflected too much. >> i hear you but when i look at the valuations of these financials and i look at something like a city right now which still trades well under book value, but book value, it's way underneath it's book value so why isn't there upside? >> i hear what pete is saying and i think he can heisman the market for quite some time with his promises and to pete's point, that's why i think these banks will continue to go higher because i do think that banks are not going to trade where they were at the peak in terms of price to tangible book but some where in between where they are now and where they did peak smir around 1.8 which gets the goldman sachs to 310.

to 93, 94. i do see room for further upside if he just continues to push this commentary along. >> he's lamed up donald very soon. his own party is fighting him -- yes, yes. >> you don't necessary -- >> here's the thing you asked the question what's priced in right here. his own party are at odds with him about health care. if you don't think that effects -- i get that -- >> that don't believe that current valuation for -- >> the s&p is trading at 21 times at a ten year high. so you can tell me where you think stocks are going, what's the average price target for the s&p 500, it's like 24.50, we're already at 2370. have a ball if that's what you want to buy. >> you made a lot of these arguments a couple hundred points ago in the s&p 500, you could have made similar

arguments and the numbers we get so far have been pretty dog gone impressive overall. yes there are some struggles but you look at the material stock and where they're going right now. some of the energy stocks are not doing well but energy itself doing well. there's a lot of interesting things going on economic here in the u.s. and abroad. >> despite record highs jpmorgan says the market accident could be on the horizon. let's find out why with marko. it's always good to see you. what sort of accident could happen? >> primarily thinking about the increase in market volatility, if you look at it right now, s&p is about 5% extremely low and the main driver that is very employee correlations. correlations are really at historical all time lows and that's stock correlations, sector correlation. we think that unsustainable. there has been quite a mock driven related moves but also

there's a turn of the year seasonality where investors started changing sectors which pushes correlation lower and most importantly earning season. very disruptive. so suppress correlation to unsustainably low levels. they're going to bounce back going into march once when the earnings season is behind us and we go into quarterly option cycle. volatility of market will go up as well. >> the markets will then go down. >> so once volatility increases that's going to put some pressure to derisk it and may shake out some weaker hands and then basically you could see market pullback. >> you also make the point that investors may be overly positioned in one direction in the bond market and when they have to cover their shorts that's going to send a wrong signal to the markets. >> correct. that's very correct. if you look at the bond position now they're near all time

multi-decades short and we think largely trend following investors and basically if bonds don't sell off from this point, this momentum is going to weaken. they'll need to buyback some of these shorts. once they do, from the -- investor may misread that. a bit of that we are seeing today. if you look at the today bonds rallies, financials were under pressure today although the whole day ended fairly uneventfully. >> what risk asset, what market are you most focused on where you think it's going to start when you have this accident start to happen and then what are the effects from there? >> i think fairly planl it will s&p going higher and it could be like ten year bond rallying a bit. >> let's be clear though about

what this accident will look like in the markets. you've been predicting a pullback sometime at the beginning of the year but not a tremendous, deep pullback. >> correct. >> 5% or so. >> correct. so we believe there's still a very strong fundamentally cases largely around the promise of fiscal reform, deregulation and high earnings in 2018 so 2017 we expect a bit higher earnings and buy backs but 2018 if we do get a fiscal reforms market will waiting for that and pullback like they'll jump in and use it as a buying opportunity. >> we've been talking about this rally being a feared missing out rally. nobody wants to sit on the sidelines. do you see that reflected in the various positionings? >> correct. market exposure, like hedge fund to equities is very high. if you look at the systematic investors who are largely driven by price action and level of volatility because momentum was

strong, volatility was low, these investors basically increased. i think they're fairly stretched right now. >> does that mean when we see the correction they'll be a sharp short one? >> correct. so i think -- you will need to maybe a bit of market weakness for some of these economics to start changing, you can see a sharp pullback and relatively short and market will again reach all time high. >> thank you. good to see you. >> everything marko says is spot on. i think he's probably surprised that even with everything we've just talked about the vix is still -- it's below 12 and it closed lower on the day, until yesterday the thing had a ten handle. it doesn't reflect itself in the vog tilt index but i hear what he's saying. in terms of what interested me today, you had a big move today down in tesla. looking for the potential to fail at this 280 level.

for the first time in a long time the move lower concerned me enough where tomorrow i'd have to be watching it very closely. >> what did you do today? >> i saw and i know dan sees all the same stuff, but ak steel was interesting to me. 12,000 of the upside calls were brought in there today. the material space is interesting because that's been one of the leadership areas, had a knockdown and we saw a big pullback. how about the way the financials did rally in the final hour of the day? they came off the lows and pushed almost back to even once again. it just shows you people are nervous to be short in this market right now. >> karen? >> i shorted some uri which is not a knock against uri at all. it's a great company. i think they're fantastic. it's just a proxy for the industrial space and i think -- similar to what dan said, how can we possibly get an infrastructure deal done when we're still stuck here and we're going to be stuck here for a while? >> you asked me earlier will i

short the market? i will. i'm going in, i'm going long ball. i'm on call spreads. you and i talked about it. but that's the trade and then spy puts are just too cheap right there. >> what time is that show on? >> 5:30. coming up kate spade is surging after its open to a sale but with the border tax looming and a tough retail environment overall is there a buyer out there? one of the biggest ipos is looming. so what could it mean for facebook and twitter. feeling a little stressed out? you're not alone. we got a special report on how the rise in anxiety could be boosting a major part of the pharma industry. much more "fast money" still ahead. i've found a permanent cape from monotony. together, were perfectly balanced,

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kate spade soaring and that things off our top trade after a solid earnings report. the handbag maker confirming that is looking at alternatives which is likely a sale of the company. with the retail sector in a bit of a turmoil is there someone out there to actually buy it, what do you think? >> yes, but i can't imagine them

want to proceed without more clarity here. this business, the profitability of this business could change a lot. they are mostly u.s. sales, the import, so that's if there is border adjustment tax, that's bad for them. if a private equity firm were to buy them the deductability of interest is up in the air so it's hard to know how much financing will really cost. they've done a phenomenal job. someone will want to buy them but i don't know how they can without more clarity. >> unless things stay the same in terms of the tax regime, et cetera, would coors be a good match? >> i don't know that the street would love that. it's a big deal for them. it is a big bite. they can afford it but they would go from a cash -- from having cash to having debt which not that they can't service it, they can but that's -- >> have you ever seen a brand like kors that's putting their balance sheet at risk, they'll

have to pay a premium. >> and production, there's -- i do and i think with the whole -- >> kors could do it. >> when i look at it i think coach makes the most sense they're able to use what they got in the asian markets. i really think that would be what something that would really open them up internationally and maybe expand it and it wouldn't be as big a bite at kors kors. check out the shares. the casino operator blaming weakness in las vegas and that bad news taken the entire space with it. all deep in the red, there. >> this is more specific to mgm. they've gotten away from conventions so that was where they got slammed in terms of las vegas itself. i look over and see win coming

back about 3% today. that creates an opportunity because i like that name. i'm in it but i think that shows the upside. >> i want to say this for your chartist out there. the gap today in mgm on the volume that it had below the one year uptrend that had been in place that's a significant technical break. here's a stock that actually spent the last three months since the election consolidating. it went up after the election and held 28, it broke today. this is not one you want to buy tomorrow. >> pete talked about it, i want to say last summer, my timings probably off i think it was the $60 stock when mr. wynn started buying back his own shares. it's had trouble at the 103 level. but if you're looking for a level where you pull the rip cord if you're wrong, i think it's through 90 bucks. is an oil boom coming?

one hedge fund manager thinks crude is about to jump about 25%. here's what else is coming up on fast kwoet 1. >> the leaks are real, the news is fake. >> and there's a group of stocks that are poised to cash in off your anxiety. we'll explain. plus that's what investors are saying ahead of the big tech ipo since alibaba. and we'll tell you what a snapchat ipo means for facebook. g you ow and the or wn it's cot 's usinste-of-the-a simulatos to better prepar foany situation. it's gi oshor teams shore suppt. and it's empoweringanyo tb if something doesn't seem right. b b safety is neverbeing . and it's empoweringanyo tb

and always wng to etter. ♪ b b safety is neverbeing . and it's empoweringanyo tb we'rerowning in information. whe, in all ofhis, is the stuffhat matters? the akes areo hi yo finances, youruture. how you solve this? u don't. you partnewi s hoand the rtun50his? anan der insht person to pern, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.

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welcome back to "fast

money." here's what's coming up. politics got you all stressed out. well, you're not alone. it's causing a big tailwind for one group of stocks. is there a major oil surge ahead? is now calling for a super surge in crude? he'll be here to tell us. first we start off with snapchat. 22 bfl ipo is getting underway and the largest tech debut since alibaba. hi, leslie. >> that's right. snap's executives had a busy day with meetings at morgan stanley, jpmorgan, goldman sachs. the snap team met with the sales forces at the banks to talk about how they'll sell the shares in the ipo. snap executives in their advisors need to sell about $3 billion worth of shares in a global road show. they'll start on the east coast this week, head to london on monday during the u.s. holiday and return back to the united states for a cross country tour.

sources say the focus of snap's pitch during these investor meetings will be user engagement. snap had an average of 158 million daily active users during the fourth quarter. they'll also focus on how snap is not just an app, it's revolutionizing communications. now investors will come armed with questions at the meetings, how will snapchat compete with facebook and how will it keep up its user growth? at the high end of snap's range for ipo valuation it would surpass their latest private round but it would not beat the price that snap last granted restricted stock units. that price was $16.33, slightly above the $16 at the high end of the share range. at this point, though it all comes down to the big investors, the extent of their demand for snap shares will determine the ultimate price on march 1st. >> thank you very much. now, the interesting thing

about snap is that before the s 1 was dropped a couple weeks ago there's all this hype and the it was dropped and there's all this criticism. here they are trying to market themselves as comparison to facebook. how do you think it'll be received? >> i think it really is a niche thing. it has an opportunity to go into a much broader audience. the thing about spiegle is, investors see him as something's that's very unique in the tech world. he has a long-term vision and trying to create products to expand from that 150 million users who are just using it for one thing right now. to me i think that big institutional holders are going to look at it especially in the public markets that have this sort of scale. we talk about facebook's 1.8 billion users. i don't think there's ever going to be another social property on its own from scratch that ever

gets to a billion users. that's why it's been my belief for a long time that twitter needs to be plugged into a google. it may be the same thing for snapchat. >> i hear all those things, you could say the same thing about twitter at its ipo and it has the same problems in terms of mounting loss. leslie, i would imagine this is probably one of the biggest things that if they're trying to educate they're sales force in how to market this thing and you slap on top of it that investors will not have any say in the management of the company. >> snapchat has one big problem that twitter didn't even have and that's facebook is all over their product. they have their instagram stories which almost directly mimic exactly what snap's core product is with their snap stories. so how do you say to an investor, that no, we will be able to compete in light of this giant facebook with its billion plus users. it's a really difficult sell. >> let me ask you about the

logistics, the ipo itself. did the underwriters priced lower and trade up, right, even if that's fewer dollars for the snapchat insider whoever's selling those shares. how difficult is that push and pull going to be when pricing time comes around? >> i took a look at the float side. we're looking at 15% of shares outstanding. that's pretty small. typical for a tech ipo and the idea there is so that they get more supply for the shares, relative to the size of the ipo. they also have the benefit of squarsty, very few tech companies have gone public over the last year and a half or so. so with that said there's money to be put to work here to try and generate that pop. it also appears they're setting this price range on the lower side. they could then if they get enough demand especially early on in the road show raise that price rank or price higher, that

helps the investor so they feel like this is a hot deal, we can get into this, that's some of the things investment bankers are working on to try and manipulate that pop on the first day. now whether investors will play ball is another story. >> thanks leslie. you've got the glasses. >> i went to the app store and i bought these, right, dan? why are you making fun of me? >> look at me. >> america, this is really important. this may be the first time a baby boomer has ever put on the spec ta ankles. >> it's making him uncool. >> snap management called me and told me to put them on. >> was there giggling in the background when they said they're snap management? >> i think facebook had every opportunity to sell off in a meaningful way. dan spoke to this, because one maybe the earnings weren't good enough and maybe people were using facebook as a source of funds to get into this ipo.

facebook is still $134 which leads me to believe that there's still room on the upside -- >> i don't know -- >> i'm just having a conversation. >> do you think it's going to happen for snap that facebook is going to be the atm for snap investors? >> no, $3 billion, right, the facebook a shares which are not the ones that zuckerberg owns is 315 billion, so could 1% could the entire -- could facebook be the entire atm, let's say they were, that's less than 1% of the market now assuming every single dollar came from facebook. >> the last thing i say about this instagram's killing them. when you look at the views, the views are going down right now for snap because the stories from instagram that tells me that they're losing, they're not going to be able to money ties in my opinion. facebook can still win this one.

scarcity works. we want to correct something that was said last night on this program in referring to twitter ceo of $7 million worth of stock. we also noted that dorsey had sold 125 million shares worth of stock in may of 2016. that was not correct. he did not sell those shares. he, in fact, gifted those shares back to his employees. we regret the error and promise to do better for you guys out there. still ahead, stress is on the rise for americans as politics reaches a fever pitch. there is one way to profit from the trauma. meg turrell is here with a special report. plus one oil stock that investors are betting is about to drop big time. we'll give you the name when "fast money" returns. ay, whata

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welcome back. let me ask you something, are you feeling a little stressed out there? well, you're not alone. americans are more stressed out now than ever before according to a survey and some drug companies could end up reaping the benefits. >> so a new study came out yesterday from the american psychological association gauging levels of stress in america. they do this every year.

what they found is that although stress levels gradually have been coming down over the last decade we have seen an uptick in election season. so they conducted a study in august of 2016 and then again in january and what they found is that as of january 2017 about two-thirds of americans said that they're somewhat or significantly stressed about the future of our nation. 57% said they're stressed about the current political climate and 49% said they were stressed about the election outcome. now even though those levels have been coming down over the last decade between august and january, they saw the first statistically significant uptick in stress that they've ever seen in the last decade. you can see there the change between august and january. so people are feeling pretty stressed out. now, not everybody on this study is going to be taken an antidepress sant. sort of a tenuous segue here. there has been some news out this week that people are excited about in this space.

if you look at the market for central nervous system drugs this includes antidepress ants it's a $24 billion market in 2015 they project that will grow in 27 bds by 2021. a lot of these drugs like prozac, are generic so it makes the space tough to invest in but we are seeing excitement in this space from companies like allegan and a very early stage setting. we saw the stocks move quite a bit on those data and they'll be bringing those into another study this year. some movement in this after not a lot of progress. >> they usually do it once a year over the past ten years so they decided to do it twice? do they have plans for a follow-up sometimes down the road? >> they said when they run the survey they talked about the reasons they're feeling stress and a lot of people in august

mentioned the election so they decided to follow up in january to figure out whether they had changed and people were seeing increase levels of stress. >> this is surveys been going on for a decade and people have been less and less stressed over that decade. i would imagine prescriptions for anti depressants. >> why prescriptions are growing the market isn't getting bigger because there's so much generic competition these drugs are becoming very cheap. >> thank you. >> it will be interesting if that do that again after the impeachment. >> oh, there you go. >> after the impeachment let's run that survey again and see. i'm a little stressed. i just with go to the

constellation brands. >> that's what they say. >> no, that's not -- you shouldn't tell the folks at home to reach for the bottle. >> okay. okay. >> go to the gym. >> talk to friends. >> buy a dog. speaking of dogs. >> don't give it away. >> i didn't give anything away. >>, by the way, the most meaningful bets we've had in two and a half years has but 250 is where it broke down from. >> still ahead, oil and energy stocks are doing something very unusual and it could be a major warning sign for the market. plus it is the one dow stock that traders are betting could see a real drop and it's one of the most widely held stocks so you can own it, we'll give you the name when "fast money" returns.

>> call it the curious case of crude as an unusual thing is happening within the energy space right now. dom chu is back at headquarters breaking things down for us. >> reporter: i sense a disturbance in the force or a divergence. it's what's happening with the energy complex on the commodity side coupled with the stocks in the industry as well and here's what we're talking about.

as you might expect overtime oil prices have a positive trading relationship with the stocks tied to them. and over the last couple of years the s&p energy etf as well as oil prices generally move up and down together. especially over the last few months. now, this chart shows that but as you can see on the extreme right-hand side of the screen, a divergence between in orange and the energy etf prices in blue is developing, so could we see a move down in oil prices or a move up in energy stocks to catch up with the overall market? over the last month the s&p 500 energy sectors it's been the biggest lagger dropping by 4%. among the biggest losers among individual stocks in the sector, you got exploration of production companies like murphy oil. also drilling companies and transocean. another thing to watch here earnings growth in the sector

overall according to data if all remaining companies in the sector report as expected you're going to get earnings growth of around 3%. that's worst than your 5% growth expected before the season started. but melissa, the flip side of the coin here, revenues are expected to be up by nearly 3%, that's a heck of a lot better than they were expected to be early on in the season. guys, back over to you. >> thanks a lot. you used the pull back in the oil stocks to buy. >> two names for quite a long time and i continue to own them and i have no reason yet to sell them. amj which infrastructure in the energy space, it's a fund and the other is kmi. everything says pipelines are still a place that you can be. you do get yield and because of that i like holding on to it. >> i look at exxonmobil. we don't talk about that stock that often, $95 late, trading

$82 now and seeming topped out when oil made its last push to the upside. oil's been going sideways now for about four or fives months so what it tells me is exxon goes higher. if you believe that to be the case -- >> there's a mr. tillerson? >> i think the bench was deep enough. >> i'm just asking. >> i think it's a combination of that and the soil is going sideways for the last few months. >> listen, we're going to go do this at the smart board. >> this is my time to shine. i don't really understand what's going on here. >> we're going to go to our guest right now. we are joined on the robert raymond who oversees $900 million. great to speak with you. >> thank you for having me. >> you think oil's next move is higher and higher by a lot. what are you seeing? >> i think in the near term what

we really see and really the primary point here is the global oil market is starting to tighten significantly so where that's really showing up in sort of the medium and sour side of the market so in various grades, dubai, mars blend, et cetera, and so i think what's important to understand that when opeck takes barrels out of the market they take some of their lower quality barrels out of the market so that's the first side of the market that really starts to see significant tightness as the opec quarter reductions start to bite. over the course of the last four and six weeks we've started to see a meaningful reduction, those volumes there by making them for scarce and as a result things like lls and wti have started to tighten dramatically. >> what if there was some announcement tomorrow there

would be a border tax, what would that do to your forecast for wti? >> it would accelerate on the actual oil side. i'm not sure it would be good for some of the refineries. so i think where we come out on this is that if i go back to the last interview back in november, oil was $45 a barrel, today's $53 a barrel. we talked about the concept of the nike swoosh if you will and that we put in the bottom back in 2016 as time wore on the emblem of that nike swoosh to ultimately higher prices. we think that's effectively what's happening here. the real big point becomes that while the rest of the global oil market is tightening we have yet to see that here in the u.s. but we believe that's coming and potentially coming in a pretty meaningful way in the march and

april time frame. >> you're still bearish in gas, right? >> unfortunately, but yes. it's hard for us to get constructive on gas at this point. >> we're going to leave it there. thank you. >> sure. >> how do you invest in this sort of -- >> there's a lot of unsernlt. there's the opec uncertainty. i was way more skeptical than this. i have -- it moves with oil but it's really not tied to oil in the medium to longer term. i missed the ride up in energy. i don't have a lot of exposure. >> we're concerned about the retailers in a border adjustment tax because we don't know what's going to happen. does that mean that you also stay away from refiners? >> wow. i think the refiners have been under pressure without question. i don't think you can -- i'd rather -- you want to play would

you rather, i'd rather own -- >> he just made his own. >> go ahead. >> i'd rather own retailer ship than i would refiners. >> you got to keep an eye on the dollar. what is the fed going to do? we know fed fund futures are creeping up for march. then we have to go all the way out a month and a half which is about 56% increase. if the dollar started to move what does that mean for oil? >> really good call. i'm going against guy. i'm going with the refiners. >> there you go. >> that's what makes markets. >> so with all that is going on, one trader is making a very big bet that exxonmobil is hedging lower. >> let me clear this up. largely in one trade, it was a trader rolling out of some february puts, the 85, 7,000

times -- paying a 1.02. here's the chart of exxonmobil. it's been one of the worst large cap performers. it's down about 14% from its 52 week highs and about 12% from that december high. it's approaching this really key support level near term. one of the things we were talking about, the xle, exxon makes up about 15% of that. that thing has held up really well so when you think about exxon which is just a few percent from his 52 week highs. it's actually nearing some very important support here so here's the thing about trading a single stock versus etf depending upon what you want to use the options for. if you were looking to maybe hedge some oil holdings, you want to do it on xle and you get

a lot of diversified exposure. if you're looking to play for some protection below those recent lows like i just talked about, the option prices are pretty reasonable on a short data basis. >> i go with you because you were against guy in the would you rather scenario, are you against guy in the exxonmobil scenario? >> dan and i see a lot of the same paper and i'm looking at exxon right now and the amount of put buying in there, i think there's a little more downside still in the stock. >> tomorrow, 5:30 eastern time, all right, coming up every four legged friend was out there strutting their stuff in the west minister dog show but only one took home best in show and we have got the top dog when we come back. much more "fast money" straight ahead. hey nicole.

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>> dog show the german shepherd dog. >> rumor. ♪ >> that was of course rumor named for the infamous rumor has

it hit by adele. we're thrilled to have her in studio along with her co-owner and handler kent boyles and welcome to you rumor. so how long does it take to get a dog up to speed for best in show? >> well, she started her career when she's 18 months old and showing her and having fun with her. in fact, we've had her at her second second kenle club show and we planned on retiring her at that time and when the judging panel was published mid summer and i wonder if we ought to possibly think about taking her back again. there was a couple of people that were had judged her before and really liked her, so we decided to bring her, enter her and play it by ear. we brought her back out in january to work some of the rough edges out of her -- >> you knew you had a winner

potentially when you saw the competition. >> oh, yeah. she had done super in her career. >> how she's handling the spotlight? >> she's been having a super good time with everything. she was a little bit burnt out after the show had a party afterwards and we were over there and stayed up most of the night. i don't think she probably partook as much adult beverages as maybe we did but we wind up getting up right away and at it again. she had a wonderful steak yesterday and a couple of interviews after that. she could barely get up but she's recouped. >> thank you kenlt. and thank you rumor for joining us. >> pete. >> cisco's broken out. >> sold some upside calls against my bank of america calls. >> let's try to protect against disaster.

>> i could tell the bond you and rumor have between -- i mean rumor has it. >> get that camera back on. priceline. if it doesn't go down today, it ain't going down. >> thanks for watching. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. ♪ hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to one market in san francisco. welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. i wish t