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tv   Options Action  CNBC  February 17, 2017 5:30pm-6:01pm EST

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another busy week at the markets. here's what's coming up. >> nick? we'll do you one better. we'll show you how to protect your portfolio for just a couple of bucks. plus -- >> you can hear the sounds of nature. it is a lot like nature. and tesla nearing all time highs. but there's something in the charts that suggests the run might be done. we'll explain. >> and -- >> there's no place like home.
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>> that's what home depot is saying. we have a way to get in for less than $5. the action begins right now. >> there's a catch. the s&p 500 has gone 49 consecutive trading days without a 1% move in either direction. that's the third longest streak since 1970. is now the time to buy protection. >> those 49 days from that chart of less than a 1% move. that could get extended. you saw the longert period in the last few years. it doesn't mean a lot. we know the vix, it can only go so low and it happens to go up pretty sharply, pretty quickly.
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in my 20 years of this business, i've 97 seen such a level of complacency given this action. >> one of the reasons you see it, we use vix to measure complacency. one of the reasons it is so low is that the people who trade them, you need market to move trunld get the price of those options elevated. it isn't that stocks aren't moving. they're just moving the opposite directions. stocks were generally highly correlated. and they have dropped and dropped and dropped. and now you have some winners and some losers. the index will tend to be very steady. >> and we know that it is characterized by pullbacks. if you were to look at the s&p
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500, there have been 2165% plus givebacks. and they have a frequency to them. they come on average about every 65 to 70 sessions. he have three must months. we've gone 70 without a 5% correction. it would be perfectly normal to have some sort of giveback or abatement after this. >> so you think it is a matter of time to protect your portfolio for $3? >> yeah. i love it so much. especially when we mentioned, we'll have two meetings. one in mid-march and one in early may. i think you look out to may. we can't time when this will happen. the s&p 500 is up about 5% of the year. up 3% this month. and people are scratching their heads. i don't know that you but in the that middle of the trading day, i was scratching other things listening to the president speak. i'm shocked people weren't looking for protection.
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option prices and indexes look really attractive for outright poixs. that chart there. the first would be 2,200. that was late november, early december. and then the air pocket. i'm going to use the spy. i want to buy when the stock was trading 34 on.70. may had 210. that's your risk. it breaks at 227.25. down bonl 30%. all the way down to 210. i think it may be an aggressive target. what i want to do, we've had such a low period of volatility. i think that you would be really disappointed i'm risking 275 to make 75. >> using spy as your proxy.
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this will pay a $1 dividend. chances you'll be collecting some dividends. there are numbers matter. it was pre election just before the victory. and it is the breakout juncture. so very precise. 6-1? 7-1? >> we talk about portfolio protection. you need to be tactical about it. the stock market is at an all time high. very low readings here. to me, something is out of whack here. you want to do this tactically. and i've tried to sit on my hands and not push. this i think the timing is very soon. >> we have a big week ahead. a number of big names. breaking it down, dom chu.
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>> it's the pocket square. i 97 really wore them before i got to cnbc. we have 47 s&p 500 companies reporting next week and a dozen are in the consumer discretionary space. so let's take you through calendar first. you can get your plans in place. on the big box stuff. you have walmart and home depot both there. tjx on wednesday. and the recently controversial nordstrom on thursday alongside with game stores and foot lock order friday. i know it is not in the s&p 500 five hunt still. speaking of fireworks, check out the options market. nordstrom could move up or down by about 9.5%, according to options prices. macy's around 6.4%.
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consumer discretionary is the fourth biggest sector in the s&p. so we could see another read on the market direction that given what is happening next week with these retail earnings. they have been a focus for a lot of investors. back to you. >> and no one looks pocket square leak you do. there's one name in particular. simply unwill charitable. >> we know the biggest is walmart, then kroger. i thought it would set it up biffle looking at a chart from q-4, 2015 present. what you have here, despite the volatility at home depot. they are up the same amount. let's pull them apart individually. here the same time frame.
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price per share. earnings per share. leading. now let's do the s&p 500. same thing. up 22, 23. earnings, one. put it all together. here are the two stocks. exactly the same amount. 22 plus or minus percent. home deep over up 31 and the s&p. meaning this superior name is simply tracking the s&p but it is of course doing much better in terms of results. so let's look at a few charts of home deep over and figure it out together. you can draw this many different ways. you can say there's the head and shoulders bottom. do you know this. the breakout is underway. we think the earnings will dear breakout further. we want to get long. home depot.
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>> i was looking at the calls, you can spend just over $2. that's a way to make bullish plays. the options again, the stock looks very good except for one thing. it is going to be propelled by low rates. housing formation and retail. you put all these together and could you potentially have a disappointment next week by using a call to make your bullish bet. you're mitigating the risk. you're talking about something growing 15 to 20% earnings on the bottom line for the last seven years. a discount to the broad market. >> while he haeveryone has the n problems, you just can't get that. >> they have tremendous growth in the online sales. 40% of the onlien purchases are
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picked up in the store. if you have something that has to be picked up with a forklift, probably not going to happen. >> is there a week of border adjustment tax? it is sort of this nexus of retail and housing. >> i don't think would you argue with your technical set-up. 140 is the level to the down side. that's where you want to define your risk. it is one of the reasons why i don't love the idea of reaching out too far out of money for a call. if you get earnings wrong. >> that's actually a great appointment. we did see a lot of activity. these are the 145s. the first out of money strike many april. on they have dollar strikes. you could way to 142. if you're going to buy regular options and you want enough time play out on. and they will rally.
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if the stock goes up four or 5%. >> there was some car buying. so this is a company that performed very poorly on a relative basis. this was a couple weeks after home depot. if the trends so good, maybe lows lowe's does. >> their retail square foot is significantly lower than lowe's. it bremts 40% of the sales. and that's why new housing, things like that, matter so much. >> this is in a way the broadest of retailers. it will be important regardless of what it says to the consumer. >> got a question throughout? send us a tweet. check out our website. check out our super cool news letter. millions of you have.
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t don't be the last one on your block to have missed it. >> tesla shares are flying. if you're worried about a pullback, we'll tell you how to protect your profits for free. that's what energy stocks have done this year and we'll tell you why it could get a lot worse. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. tesla shares to record highs. expecting a move more than 6% up or down.
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how do you trade tesla ahead of earnings? >> it's really a matter of whether you come in on the stock. up 27% on the year. at one appointment in the week, it was up 60%. it is up about 50%. you've had these ridiculous gains in a very short period of time. we already blank the prior quarter's deliveries were. we do want to see about profitability and margins. we want to see any commentary on the mass market. these are all things investors will be focused on. the last thing is capital raising. so if you have gains in the stock and they're very short term gains, you may want to consider a collar. when would you use it? if you don't want to sell your stock but you're worried that short term risk. you're willing to give up some
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upside to do that. that would be the first thing. again, it is about short term protection. you have an event. you want to use this tactically. the most important thing, you don't want to pay anything for it. here's the 5:five-year plan for tesla. it got to 287 and fell. i think at one point today, it was close to 264, 265. that's a pretty decent fullback. i want to make a point. that 50% rally is not unheard of. we've had a handful over the last ten years. it often has a 30% check back after those moves. one reason again why you might consider a collar a. here's the one-year chart. to my eye, this is an important technical resistance level. this is immild volatility.
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the price of options. well below the 52-week highs. it has been creeping up. tim applied move is 6.5% often moved 3 1/4 percent. i might like the short date it. look to the 290 call. very equal to the prior high. you can sell those at 100 shares i would use the shares and look down. i would guy march, that cost me nothing. here's how the trade helps you out and how you make money. between current stock price, you can have up to $20 in gains. you can always love that call if the stock were up there before march expiration. then down here.
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it is down. the likelihood of it being down there. complacent broad market. the potential for some sort of retracement bigger than what we've seen. so you may look for some sort of disaster protection and not play a heck of a lot for it. >> do you like this sort of trade for this sort of stock many we have bother the going into their results. what are they telling us? it is enough to overcome the potentially diluted effects. the series three car has not been distributed yet. we're probably not going to get tremendous profitability. options are very expensive. we are at the all time highs. some of the big holders acquired, i don't know that they'll be reaching for the stock. for all of those reasons. i think a collar makes sense.
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the stock that moves from the two-week low. it is not a stock that's in a position to exceed a prior high. it is in a position to contend with the prior high. that's what happened this week. it got tom level. it backed away from that level. and the presumption. the lows in december at 180. >> so you're saying you like my lines. >> the blessed chart master. that's a big thing. >> i think this is really important. remember when you're using a collar. the base case scenario is the stock is within the range of that long put. >> just think about this. 55%. a lot of stocks that can do that in three months. >> up next, cisco shares
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trading. now he has a way to make even more money when options action returns. ♪ guyhey nicole, happening here? this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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ways wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face.
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mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. welcome back. last friday dan said cisco could see bounce on earnings. >> if you look at the long term chart. we have one going back to 2000. there's just room. you can guy june 32-36 call spread. the break even is up at 33. you can make between 33 and 36. >> since then, cisco has rallied close to a ten-year high. what do you do? >> here's the deal. we doifd that it got to $35. it is worth almost daubl here.
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we have a lot of time until expiration. i don't like it is right in the middle of the call spread. i might take profits and to look roll it out a little. kind of play with the moan a little bit. fill the gap. >> to energy stocks. last month, colin carter said the stock was stuck in a range. >> this is going nowhere. if you're long, don't expect much. >> selling it, 55 cents for those and then sell the march 78 calls can. collecting 30 cents for though. that's net 85 cents. >> the xle is actually down. >> just for those who are interested, i think energy is the trap that keeps on trapping. it does not deliver results for
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anyone. there's no sign that it will continue in any positive way. er? we have very small profits here. this ticks up mildly. i might cover this. i don't really feel leak being put to stock here. i don't want to be put to anything. if i'm going to do anything, i would sell call spreads. >> up next, your tweets and the final call from the options pits. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias.
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get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. hi, i'm frank. i take movantik for oic, opioid-induced constipation. had a bad back injury, my doctor prescribed opioids which helped with the chronic pain, but backed me up big-time. tried prunes, laxatives, still constipated... had to talk to my doctor. she said, "how long you been holding this in?" (laughs) that was my movantik moment. my doctor told me that movantik is specifically designed for oic and can help you go more often. don't take movantik if you have a bowel blockage or a history of them. movantik may cause serious side effects, including symptoms of opioid withdrawal, severe stomach pain and/or diarrhea, and tears in the stomach or intestine. tell your doctor about any side effects and about medicines you take. movantik may interact with them causing side effects. why hold it in? have your movantik moment. talk to your doctor about opioid-induced constipation.
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if you can't afford your medication, astrazeneca may be able to help. i'm on it.ar does weathertech go to protect your vehicle? ♪ ♪ ♪
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weathertech. made right, in america ♪ guyhey nicole, happening here? this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. back for tweets. 70,000 of the january 2018, 130/150 strikes. are you bullish? spent $2 for that trade. it could be worth as much as 20 and it has a long way to go. it is a very interesting trade.
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and actually, this is one i would consider putting up. >> one of the few stocks that's not back to all time highs. >> next is a very for dan here. how would you protect any gains in apple? >> we know samsung will release the galaxy. that's a make or break. and peng they will talk about their capital return. and ahead of the next iphone cycle in september. it will could have all that. but $135 puts or 5 to me, that looks like reasonable hedge. >> time for the final call. >> final call can. if you don't already own on it, go into earnings. i don't think i would buy the stock here.
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>> complacent investors, you'd better check yourself. do whatever. >> it looks like great trade. we'll see you on have a fantastic long holiday weekend. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. ♪ hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to our last day on the west coast for investor in america, defining the future. welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer.

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