despised system. he helped 38 theoretical and theological foundations. and he said words from 1982 that certainly that resound today. thank you for watching "closing bell." we'll see you tomorrow. americans are making money in the stock market. now hitting all time highs again today. the dow soaring triple digits. the s&p has add $2 trillion. i have my pinky to my mouth since the election and all four indexes are up 10% since donald trump was elected president. the small caps, that's the big winner. up 18%. hello. good evening. i am brian sullivan in for

melissa on "fast money." the question is do you keep buying stocks while they are at record highs and how far can this epic rally really can? some good questions. let's get answers. thank you for being here. >> melissa, feel better. please. to answer the question, yes, buy stocks now. the market is overbought and i probably would agree with that. but this feels as if it will continue to go higher. every piece of bad news that i can think of thrown at this market and it shags it off. goldman sachs all time high. even health care name. you saw the bristol news earlier this afternoon. that's back in play again. as long as the russell remains above 130.

they are now both healthfully above, this rally is intact. when you think about what's going on, expectations for a fed, march rate like about 30%. they've gone up. the concept of a fed liking is a positive concept. then throw the data around the world has been so much higher. the european highs, we're at 69 highs on manufacturing in germany. across the board in europe, you've had numbers come through. they tell you the rest of the world is getting better. by the way, those are markets have outperformed ours and they are not at all time highs. and they are the markets at valuations that are significant discount. s&p trading in at 86 rsi. that scares me. >> i don't think you buy stocks here. i think you buy protection here.

i think the fundamental things going on in the economy, which is great. i think so much of this rally is predicated on some pretty significant moves from the trump administration that i think will be tilt to achieve. >> i hear that. but does that explain the world? many of the major world markets have done better than we have done. you can make the case for the united states but how does that explain brazil and germany? >> some commodities which have accelerated in the trump administration. some of it was catch up. the u.s. market was the place to be. a lot of it was catch-up. >> yeah. absolutely. you have a tremendous run of u.s. stocks and it has been predicated with the election. the european pmi's numbers

today, fantastic. but you've already had this run. that's what markets do. they anticipate. if you're saying buy all time stocks. either you're buying pro tweks the vix where it is. or you're starting to peel off as a trader and say i'll get back into it. >> buying protection has been difficult. you can make arguments the vix is pinned incredibly low. owning protection and losing premium makes you feel about. when we get back to the things around the world, labor markets in europe are nine and a half year highs. the big benefit for our market is when the ecb starts to worry about liking and that the fed doesn't seem so far away from every other center bank.

s about the time to get very bullish. i think i look at 86 rsi. way overbought. >> i agree. you hit the nail on the head. people have been buying protection. that's a good thing. i think there are people saying, i've been doing this six months. every month, it expires worthless. the market is going higher. >> let's turn it. for eight years, all we basically talked about was the fed, the fed, the fed. now market conversationses are something like trump, trump, trump, tax reform, infrastructure, trump, trump. does the federal reserve still matter? >> yes. absolutely. the reason we tone talk about it, there are so many other

things, eight of which are trump. >> why they don't seem to be, and forgive me. they don't seem to be in the dialogue at all. >> maybe coming back it into. they were a little dovish so people thought this is the second half of the year story. you haven't had a lot of central bank stuff to talk about. the one thing i would add to this. we're asking, what are these things that will impact the market? you have a ton. a ton of money going into index funds that doesn't care about trump or europe. it just goes in. until that stops it will be real hard. >> i think the fed is back in play. they said they ended up being not back in may. i think they are back in may. and we think about this rally

for banks. that's the most important part. >> i got a text from a buddy of mine, a mid 30s guy never owned a stock in his life. he has a couple thousand and he asked me. where should everything and what should he buy? if he's watching, he knows who he is and i apologize. i'm not using you it's a an example. i wonder if the retail investor like this guy is getting in now will regret it. or if they will bring in a flood of new money. >> if you think about the s&p. not that big a deal, right? when you look at this inflection, it has been extraordinary. for the retail investor who thinks passive investing is god,

there's an awakening coming. the fed is extremely important. trump has three seats to change in the fed and it will be a different fed by the end of the year. to say that the fed couldn't be more grefs. the fed minutes are out tomorrow. we'll get a sense of where they are for march. but two things. one, they'll be cautious. >> there's a line in the movie where he says, there's going to be a reckoning. cold mountain seymour. >> there is a couple things i topped up on. these are your high growth stocks and they continue to run. there are a couple names in emerging markets. mexico and brazil are moving.

i would be closer selling some. i would be short. it is not an indictment of uri. >> united rentals. i think a infrastructure man would be very difficult to get done. >> i'm hearing that from my sources. >> i bought the breakout at xlf. the financials. i'm out of that position now. to me this is a market where you need to be nimble. you need to take profits. if i miss the upside. okay. >> we've been talking about u.s. steal. traded up 4.5%. it is a very levered company. >> you nailed it. >> i think it will exhaust itself when it hits 45. >> all right. good stuff there. >> a big story today, the move in crude oil. it hit a year to date high. but ironically it has not helped energy stocks which are the

worst performing sectors. how will this discontinuance continue? let's go off the charts. >> we need to remember, the whole world has broken out. it is a concern of ours. i don't think we want to get too over our skis. we have a 70% bear market over a two-year period. we doubled off the low. and now we've basically been sideways since june. we have not been able to decisively get above that $55 level. and all along the number of longs have increased. right now longs are about a two-year high in the crude oil contract. we haven't seen it. so the energy stocks have not participated. this is not the broadest move we've ever seen.

one flame we like is pioneer. it is one of the few that has accelerated off support. so pick your spots. don't get too over your skis being long pioneers. >> chris, why don't you come over to the desk. it is a lot more cozy. >> let's think about this. it makes up a big part of the entire sector. it got a lot of refining exposure. you essentially bring oil prices down. it takes away a lot of the cheap product. the valuations are not good at all. the places you wanted to be, that's mid cap, best balance sheets, throws the names moving. and oil services. that still works.

>> there is talk in the market. a billion barrels, the longest position ever seen in the market. how does that fit in? at some point they have to be liquidat liquidated. >> let me pose a thesis. oil and energy today remind us of bank stocks in say, late 2009? you had the big decline. you doubled off the low and then you were frustrated. that's how it works. doubled off the low and then nowhere. i think the mistake here would be looking. we don't see it. >> the difference might be. you can answer the question. the bank's business didn't improve. their balance sheets are better. if the business improves, wouldn't that be different? >> a high price is cured by a high price ask a low surprise

cured by a low price. as the price of oil has gone up, it has gone up as well. could crude creep toward 60? it could. i don't think we're talking about $75 oil though. i think there are better places to play. do we want to waste capital in a sector that's not got better leadership? >> i think if you look at oil companies. the four-quarter will be year after year. in fact, i think we'll see global prices. i think the dollar is capped here. that will help oil prices. a could not current indicator. out two years we have hired oil prices. i get the positioning but that's not enough to overcome that demand and supply fundamentals have probably not been this alined for a long time.

>> i would caution you that you have to be cautious. is it 60? 70? i would be shocked if it got to 70. it doesn't look like it will be this massive run. >> be aware the 25-year adjusted price of crude oil. all right. the mega merger between kraft and unilever is off. the traders are ready to play a special edition of everybody's favorite show, let's make a deal. plus, some of the biggest names are coming out in defense of a border tax and it might mean big trouble. we've got those details. and is tesla the next amazon, in

a good way.

there's a lot of speculation

out there and we can't spend a lot of time thinking about it. when i split the company, i did it because these were two very different portfolios and they have shown themselves quite capable of creating great value for their respective shareholders. our company has created over 60 billion market cap as a result of focusing on snacks. >> that was irene rosenfeld speaking on squawk on the street. the bid for unilever. the stocks like mondelez. you may try to bought or be the buyer next. we thought it would be the perfect time to play. make a deal! which stock, maybe the next one,

to either be bought or do a deal. the traders have their white boards at the ready. >> pick me! >> karen is going to hate me for this. i think hain. >> i think a big friend of the show. >> no. >> now, listen. the stock has been very difficult to own now for the last year despite a bit of a rally early on mid summer last year. it could be an oversight or something more significant. i'll say this. the products are still doing well. hayne could be a tuck-in. so for you, haines celestial. >> all right. >> i'm going with campbell's pork and beans. the reason why, they had

horrible earnings. they need to figure something out here. they need to figure out growth or sell themselves. so for me in this environment, cpb is probably a decent takeover target. >> all right. >> this is a dark horse. >> really? >> it is very big. so here's the thing about it. they obviously kraft heinz wants to do a very big deal. unilever, that would be an enormous deal. this would be enormous too. this would be even bigger. however, it is not the overall price tag that i think could be the obstacle. it is how expensive it is. but there is a lot of room to cut here. the stocks not at an all time high. >> let me ask you an insane question. given the growth in the specialty drinks market. thousands of options now.

do you think coke could make a bid for pepsi? people say that's anti-trust. >> i think it would be really, really expensive. >> what is this? 1987? >> i think it would be really expensive. i don't think coke has proven themselves to know the most efficient operator. people would say they are a more firnlt -- >> i think guys, they would control what market? flavor water? water? >> $200 billion deal. about four companies and can buy it. >> i'm going with kimberly-clark. kmb. if you think what they were trying to buy. in unilever, you were getting global growth.

kimberly clark, if you want to own pampers in china, they're going 25%. this is a company at a time a lot of these companies aren't growing, emerging markets, this is a big part of the market. a $43 million market cap. the fourth quarter numbers were good. this makes a lot more sense. a lot more bite sized. >> i don't care what you say, millennial are going to have kids. >> the only problem i have with that. i understand the long term may. right? kimberly clark has had a tremendous run here. if you're out there trying to buy a stock thinking, there will be a takeover. it would frighten me to guy stock. >> except this stock was kind of sideways for a long time. they're not traders. they're not playing the stock

market. i think this makes a lot more sense. >> in defense of tim, kraft heinz showed they're not that concerned about valuation. >> i'm more concerned about those people looking to buy stocks. if you're long on this, you have a long way to go. >> all right. still ahead, border tax or no border tax? some of the top names in retail are in for a tough slog ahead. and here to tell you the names and why. >> in the meantime here's what else is coming up. >> fast food stocks have been anything but dog food. >> one of the world's most widely followed apple watchers says tesla is the next amazon. gene munster will be here to make the case when "fast money"

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let's talk about the bat. not the upside down only mammal that can fly type bat. the b-a-t. the border adjustment tax. >> hi. now 16 ceos have signed this letter backing the border adjustment tax. remember, this is a tax that would raise the price of imports but reduce the cost of exports. now there is a list of ceos that have signed this letter. they include big players like boeing, caterpillar, ge, dow kept and united technologies and they're signing it amid news that they will be meeting with president trump on thursday. some of the ceos who stinl letter will be there and they'll be discussing tax policy when they get there.

doug peterson. that tax reform has three big benefits. first, it simplifies tax code. it throwers corporate rate from 35 to 20% and it creates a fair playing field. they are part of the american made coalition. their entire mission is to end what they're calling a made in america tax and a letter to lawmakers says we applaud your efforts to pursue tax reform that is both big and bold. incremental tweets will not level the playing field or dramatically reinvigorate economic growth. president trump's position is still not clear but he did the tax reform will be out in two weeks. >> is there a way to trim this b.a.t. tax? >> i was skeptical. there are so many difficulties. that doesn't mention at tall

necessity of the dollar trading up 20, 25% to be able to neutralize the effects. >> it just seems, we talked about wanting to simplify. that doesn't simplify anything. >> i agree. simplifying the playing field, the tax code, doesn't necessarily mean that you tax imports and let exports go free. that's not simplification. that's helping one part of the economy. and leveling the playing field. this sounds like import six toogss. people to have buy domestic and they don't end up buying imports. that's not what we have and i think this won't work. and notice everyone of those companies. there's not one retailer in there. >> the one that surprised me was s&p global. you're also talking about capital imports.

indoor capital markets. the stock market. and somebody like s&p benefits. so i was surprised on that particular one. >> if it happens, look for the cherry on top. even before the three letters were even used by a great anchor like you. a company like boeing, for example, was doing just fine and dandy prior to this. this would be the cherry on top. >> all right. one of the business leaders that signs the letter in favor of the border adjustment tax was david ricks. by the way, he'll be on a pretty fine show. an exclusive interview. 2:30 p.m. eastern on power lunch. on the other side of that b.a.t. flap, retailers. they hate the idea. they claim it would hurt consumers and their profits by raising prices. but even if a border tax does not get taxed, many major

retailers still have a long tough road ahead. allen, welcome to "fast money." thank you for joining us. how tough is it going to be for retailers, b.a.t. or no b.a.t.? >> if you have bricks and mortar retailer, they have lots of challenges. i think this is a very difficult two or three years. i heard your conversation. that is the everyday customer that mr. trump appealed to in his voting. so that customer will be very much affected. general electric trick, boeing, they do not really deal with the day to day customer. that may be their employee but not the customer when she goes in the store and finds an increased 15 to 20% on the prices. even though she may get a tax break on her day to day purchases, the hurt to the

economy will be -- >> we didn't import that much stuff from china even 20 years ago. >> that's true. if you said over the 25 years you want to do that. remember this. 90% of all apparel, shoes, accessories, 90% of the things people buy, they would take 10 years to get companies to be built back here. it is not like you can switch it on and off. people would have to believe it would happen. >> i'm just appointmenting out only the last two decades we've gotten rid of cheap goods. how hard is it going to be for brick and mortar retailers? >> i think if you're amazon, a small brick ask mortar. for many of them, they really have a big change. they have to be able to create an experience for people to come

into the store. i think they've lost a lot of it. too many stores. they have to contract them. they have to focus individual store experience for the customer. they have to have competitive prices. you're in a digital time where the age of empowerment, they know everything that's going on. you have to have free delivery. but in doing that, the retail has got to say, and this is not going to be good for investors. i have to have less of a profit objective. i can't come beat the internet and i'm expected to make 10%. if i'm going to do my business, i have to cut back my objectives. i have to focus on the things that make the experience coming into my show attractive. clear focus. exclusive merchandise. competitive pricing. free delivery. well edited assortments.

differentiated services so when people come in they see a sales associate that can help them or tailoring service that's make a difference in a way a person looks. >> we've heard so many time over the last 10 or 15 years that department stores are dead. but this environment seems be the the most pessimistic for, or the hardest for the department stores. what do you think of that? >> i think it is the hardest. it is almost going back 50 years ago when the discounts stores had to address it. i believe they can do it but it will require a change in the way they approach the business. clearly they have to get rid of a lot of stores. there's too much product out there. >> let's turn to a company you know well.

macy's. they appeared this morning to discuss earnings as well as takeover chatter the company may be up for sale. >> first of all, you've heard and read and talked about the rumors have somebody buying us. >> hudson bay. >> and you've heard the rumors that we're buying them. what i can tell you is that we're going to do right thing for our shareholders and we won't be a highly leveraged retailer. those movies never turn out well. we've seen that before. >> kind of a denial that they would be the buyer. that doesn't mean they wouldn't be the seller. do you think macy's remains independent? >> i hope they will. i wish mr. lundgren wouldn't be retiring. i think the challenges over the next two or three years. i think the merger, that will not help the retail business. they have not done well and i don't think they'll add to the -- they won't then macy's

problem. the problem macy's has, everybody was in the bricks and mortar business has the same problem xfl they have to make sure that customer when she walks through the store, she sees an enjoyable experience. and is remembered and remembers it. we're not going to be without stores. but stores have to focus on why people come there. th not just to buy clothes. they come from socialization and experience. if they leave without it. that's not going to be a lasting impression. >> we're going to let you go. it makes more sense. urban outfitters buying pizza chain. that may be the wave of the future. >> thank you. >> let's go to major retailers here. >> if allen is right, which i think he is. you will see the inventory liquidation. you have to look to stores like

tj maxx. i think if you see that happening, they should do well. >> out of home depot. they're not selling beats or crazy things. people seem to be coming. the comps blew away the numbers. inventory is under control. people knocked it for five years. it doesn't matter. i like hd. >> it should be trading better but i've had a very mixed bag. he was on the board of foot locker. >> and tesla says there's something under the hood that points to more gains. most fast food stocks have been another hot trade. should you bet on some of these names? our traders will weigh in with more on the fast food side of

the coin.

papa johns moving after it reported earnings. let's get the latest. >> here's what you have.

if you look at the shares. they're down about 2 3/4. about 38,000 shares worth of total volume in the after hours. the earnings and revenues story aside, one of the interest points they brought up on earnings was this idea that they did see an increase in comparable store sales. they sold more food. however, it was offset by a rise in labor costs and others as well. as we talk about the forecast. it is interesting as well. they do look at a forecast in terms of earnings per growth, between 8 and 12%. what you got was a mixed story. up a jugger all in like 63% over the course of the past 12 month. the food story doesn't just end with dominos. it is about signs of health regarding the whole american consumer. at least to start out 2017. we've seen positivity.

i mentioned dominos. crushing it. up 19%. it is up again, a similar 67% over the last 12 months. then there's the hybrid pizza hit, kfc, yum up 7%. mcdonald's even up 5%. but the hotels, restaurant and leisure industry group within the s&p 500 has lagged the overall market over the course of the past 12 months. as you can see. almost a doubling. so a big part is whether it is enough to keep things cooking and low fuel prices, relatively low food inflake have helped but it is the labor costs that will be more important as the pushes for minimum wage increase happen across the country. >> i can say this.

america is officially over. the fast food stocks, in the past year. it is jack in the box. a company that will give you a taco with every double cheese burger and fries that you buy. it is reward investors bigly. >> it is not because of the jack in the box. it is because of the qdoba franchise. >> it is clear both of are you speaking from experience. >> what you have here, is reason these stocks took off. you had reasonable valuations. all the things that, at least a tail wind. not as much as for small businesses. then you have these in a transition. mcdonald's is a name i've been adding to. both with its menu and its

relevanty. and it is doing the right thing and monetizing the model. so they are going through this glacial move that have begun. >> to me it looks like the consumer is trading down. when you go off the food chain, you see some problems. look at texas road house. that didn't have very good earnings. when you looked, he mentioned the leisure restaurant. quick service of index. that's what you're seeing. it is a trade down. the stock is pretty expensive. up 11%. >> let's even get it to 12%. >> it can be expensive. >> fast food? >> well, del taco. good growth, good same store sales. i like it.

their do you remember the movie road house with patrick swayze? >> it was not a good move. maybe nearing all time highs. but they said there's something they are missing about the stock. could it lead to another huge move. you are watching fast money. them to object cure references to average movies. ♪ know you have a dedicated advisor and team who understand where you come from

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all right. welcome back. shares of tesla surging within 3% of the all time high. the stock is up 43% since november. that gain translates to about $16 billion added in market cap. despite this rather electric ride, they are still missing one major factor that could drive it even higher. the managing editor joins us now from minneapolis. in the commercial break we were and tolling the benefits of it. what makes tesla like amazon in a good way? >> tesla thinks like an internet

company. they go after really big problems. most people think it is about production in the near material. tesla, that may sound crazy but fast forward five years from now. you will see how they will take those two elements to really revolutionize our lives. i think how that can trans slate grossly underestimated. >> when you say grossly underappreciated, how much in. >> if you put into perspective, ford sold about 16.7 million vehicles. tesla sold 76,000 vehicles. there is a big gap between those two. but this is a company that could sell a million and a half to 2 million cars in the next ten years. while it doesn't reach what ford is, it is higher than what most analysts think, which is probably closer to a million

units. i think you will see the-up side as early as the back half of next year. for people trading the stock, that's a long time away. for people who can invest, that could move shares higher. >> let me ask you. i read your notes. you talk about test ha's significant advantage in autonomous cars. is there no one else even close? how much competition is there and are they really that far ahead. >> traditional models, you can write them off. they're still electric. the real players are coil like google. china has self-driving cars they want to sell around the world and uber. those are probably the three true competitors and they'll duke it out over the next decade. we think kids born in 2020 will

rarely drive. that's very significant. >> elon musk seem like a steve jobs type character. apple could use some innovation. should apple buy tesla in. >> it would make a ton of sense for them to buy tesla. it won't happen. elon musk' ego is too big to fit in cooper tino. although it makes a lot of sense, it is probably not going to happen. >> always a pleasure. thank you. >> thank you. let's trade tesla. tesla reporting earnings tomorrow. let's get to mike ko first to break it down. >> sure thing. so they're expecting about a 6% move. a little more than the quarterly. where we saw the most opening

buying activity was the weekly 300 strike calls. they were paying about $220. those were the best that tesla would be above 302.20. mostly bullish sentiment. >> in your view, is that overly risky? are they pricing it to perfection in. >> well, this is no question that the sentiment has become more come placent and more bullish since the lows we saw in the first week of december. think about it this way. if you were to reach, wouldn't it make more sense to use the options and spend $2 than to reach out and pay $280? >> this is a stock that has been his or the which i very cheap. is any of that changing? >> it has gotten cheaper

interestingly. the stock hasn't earned as. hately. >> let you go. >> let's trade tesla. >> tesla, the product is fantastic. can't get on board for the stock. weymo, you have google, the extraordinary business. cheap, cheap, cheap. >> don't discount chevy bolt. >> tesla is not a car company -- >> i would disagree with you. if you're buying test ha, you're buying it for what gene was talking that. that they are decarbonizing the electric grifld this is much more than a long term capital buy. >> stop talking and we'll go to break.

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i'm loving it again.

>> i can't play without protection. >> you guy facebook on a breakout. >> never play without protection. thanks for being here. >> in for melissa. "fast money" again tomorrow. jim and "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach, so-call me at 1800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. every day i come out and tell you what happened during the day