about to happen and now could be the time to buy. and hear, snap chat on chat for this week. the valuation king is here. not him. somebody else. he'll be here to weigh in. he has a very big call to make on the company. first, what could be the moment of truth for the post election rally. president trump's big speech to congress tonight. what can we expect to hear? >> reporter: it comes on a day where there has been some fresh skepticism on capitol hill about forthcoming policy. first from orrin hatch about the feasibility and the length of time it would take to get tax reform done. then there's the white house budget blue sprint due on march 16. and just today we heard from senator lindsay graham talking about the budget ask the steep cuts that the current form proposes. >> it is a budget proposal that will meet the same fate as

obama's proposals. i think in seven, eight years, it got one vote. the bottom line is i increase the the, i appreciate continue crease in military spending but you're undercutting the war. >> then there is division within the republican party about how to replace the repeal and replace after a draft leaked out. and there were some responses not everyone agreed with. of course, the back drop is the president attempting to set the table many front of the joint session of gong what his administration will do. about what the next four years will look like. here's what we can expect. a very large focus on the economy. what has already been done and what is still to come under what the president has called his america first policy. and then expect immigration to figure prominently on the portion of the speech about national security. it is still unclear whether his talk on immigration will be about a more hard line stance like his administration has previously taken and whether we would see a new executive order as previously proposed or

whether there would be some signals of compromising. some pursuit of legislation. we will see. a senior administration official says expect the tone to be optimistic but realistic. but in terms of health care or tax reform and whether we can get any specific policy proposals, i'm told it will be broad strokes. and interestingly, i think this would be of interest to you and the traders. press secretary sean spicer was on the hill briefing hill's staffers about the message. he got a specific question about whether the president would come out twonlt a full throated endorsement of the border adjustment tax. >> so is this a moment of truth for the trump rally? what do they want to hear to keep this going? >> the market ran off the trump election victory, about 8%. he started talking about lower taxes, lower regulation.

another 3%. now he is going to talk about the same things tonight. it will be fluff. no specifics. but the market likes that. the market doesn't want specifics right now. it only thinks it wants specifics. you give specifics, it changes. the truth is the reason why president trump is there is because he's a practitioner, not a politician. >> but he's a practitioner who hasn't done anything. he's been this office for five weeks. he got a lot of people into the streets. i don't have you have to give never credit -- >> not credit. you have to give him some time. this is a pretty quick -- >> to be very frank. >> he came in with a big tax agenda already on the table this month. there's nothing on the table. >> i understand. >> but something that has been on the table, look how they've -- >> the fact of the matter is you may not like what he's doing or what he is not doing in your view, but the fact is we are pretty much at record highs.

so in terms of the market, from the perspective of the market, what does the market want tonight? and it may not be so bad. >> i think steve is correct that the market wants details. it wants a time line. >> i can't imagine it wouldn't be healthy to back off a bit. reset the table. >> i think there is fear in the investors' minds. it is down to 113. it spiked up to 116. a place where, look at utilities. up 14.5%. you have emerging markets rallying on this growth concept with now an abrupt about face. i think the bond market is usually right. and it is telling that you people are very concerned about growth. by the way, the fed has been all over the tape. they're going in march.

this is back where we are last year. >> and the futures finally reflecting that in material of being above 50%. >> he said all along i agree the fed does matter. i agree steve. the market thinks they want specifics. people don't want specifics. as long as it is not acrimonious, i think the market will react favorably. >> you expect it to not be acrimonious? >> no, no. >> if he talks about the west tax cut. it will be a one sided conversation. it is hard for him to lose this debate. it is a one sided dialogue. >> every person came away with one word. unhin unhinged. the market ran, it is at all time highs. if he talks about policies again, this market probably --

>> the bond market. the fact the utilities are up. >> we've talked about this on this desk. if you want to be long in the market, you don't buy individual spaces. they all take turns. growth runs, then we rinse and repeat. >> the s&p. you make a great point. you set gold, yields. all this is going on. that makes the s&p 500 at all time highs. a very, very crowded trade. if everybody is running for safe haven assets, and they deep the stocks to be a safe haven asset. we've gone 90 some days without a 90% decline. one of the longest in decades. what does 1% turn into? >> we had eight years of the same policy. that policy is changing and it can't reverse course in a matter of months. i think that rotation, out of bonds. even though near term. i think the rotation out of bonds into risk assets.

>> let's say we get detail. larry kudlow, well connected kind of guy. locked in. according to his sources, trump will have more detail than we all expect when it comes to health care, repeal ask replace, tax reform. if we do get that detail, what happens? we have something to shoot against? >> i think if you get the detail, you might see the market sell off. >> what can that detail be? there's no free lunch no, silver bullet. you have to pay for this stuff. and ultimately, equities get kind of expensive. >> this is the thing. >> one. most inarticulate presidents in a long time can go on private time tv. >> you think he will be able to go on prime time tv and lay out details about some of the most complicated stuff? he sat there and told the press the other day, well, this health

care stuff, really complicated. really, genius? and let me make one other -- >> before that, let's pick it off one at a time. we had health care crammed down our throats with obamacare. we heard nancy pelosi say they had to pass it first to see what was in it. that was a coherent statement? >> let me say this. when all these republicans have been going into their districts and they've been facing angry crowds and they find out the constituents that they've lost health care. tens of millions have lost health care. good luck with that. >> obamacare is imploding on itself. no one likes obamacare. show never poll and i'll -- >> show me the poll. >> if it was -- >> i want to talk -- >> the president would say it is fake news. >> time-out. i want to go back to the market. sorry, guys. >> let me go. hold. on this is why this is important for the market. i hear it all the time on twitter. from all these people. the guy has his senior adviser is an etrno nationalist, he used

to run breitbart. >> okay. hold it. hold on, guys. hold on. no. that's fine. for steve bannon, there is a gary cohen, a steven mnuchin. let's go back to the markets. i want to go -- sorry. no. >> so 1208, when it is about the border tax and speculation started coming through. i think you have a place. real details are needed. the market is maxed out. especially for the technical reasons we talked about. that you have not seen these pullbacks. our guest has to come by sitting at the end of the table, talking about how we haven't seen a correction and that's what we need to see. >> the deal stocks. >> ultimately you're at a place where some of the same traits we're working on in the first quarter are the ones kicking butts. >> i want to bring in tony who says there are signs the zpax infrastructure plans might be at

rich. a chief market strategist. >> good to see you. >> great to be here. >> and you are looking at the warning signs. >> when we think about this, the last five days, a 6-point s&p move. the last five days of the move was wiped out with a 6-point drop. like you want circuit breakers. you're down double digits. that's the market that i think is ripe for a correction and it never feels like you're going to get a correction right before you do. again, you have to be out of your mind, which i've said on the show many times, to get negative. but our call has been to get market sector. the defensives over the last 12 days, 11 days, they absolutely led. for the last month. the 4 or 5% that i made a tragic correction call. they have led for the last four or five months, or percent. i have one tax legislation thing that as it relates to the market. the last major tax legislation

on the down side was ronald reagan in 1986. everybody likes to refer to it. do you know who put it out there? dick gephardt i think it goes, just the environment ripe for correction. >> at what point do you say not market neutral but actually underweight. at what point do the warning signs tip over? >> it will never happen before you invert the curve. here's the reason. any time you get a drop. so as long as it is flat or higher? >> when it takes, we're at least 2020 before we get a recession. if you follow the dot plot. you won't get it until the middle to end of 2019. your mean inversion is 15 months and you come out of the inversion over the last three cycles without a recession.

so you're into 2020. i'm on the back nine. anyway, the reality is you never, ever, ever want to sell weakness in the market when you're in a positive fundamental yield curve back drop. even if it goes down to 10%, and i do it a lot. i wish i was better. the market goes down 5% and ends up 10%. the way it snaps back. when it is up 3% from the law, you say, i can't buy it here. it will retest the low. there's the downside of trying to play it. >> aren't we in a place, they have to go. you have dudley out there saying, the case for the rate like is very compelling. and people can make an argument that a lot of this has been

about business confidence. and consumer confidence. which is a could not current indicator in some cases. if you remove that confidence, we're back to an economy that people have been poo-poo'ing for a long time. >> i used the spread. the banks never get their money in two years and lend it at ten. they get it at three months and lend it at five years. that's the yield curve. it is not so bad but so far away from an inversion. even if the ten-year note stays right here. to your point, when the market started really rallying, it was because it reversed from the election. you had global economic growth accelerating. look at the date points over the last three, four months. they've been extraordinary. >> could the fed get us into a yield curve, this debt ceiling in two weeks that nobody is

talking about. this s&p a big deal? >> 100%. they will raise rates aggressively. they do it every cycle. the data lags and all of a sudden, the great data, all of a sudden a revision comes in and you get some pretty big upside. here's the nonconcensus call. the dollar gets weaker. if you're raising the interest rate, what does that do to your economy? it slows it down. if you're showing your economy down, who will put their money somewhere in that growth environment? >> okay. tony, good to see you. >> the data was getting better and it continues to get better. we see it across the board. if he was right, the dollar gets weaker, that's not good for that trade. and it is also know good if we go to this protectionist trade war stuff. so to me there's a lot of head winds that could slow down whatever green chutes sweth

going on. the political stuff is really important. i think it has the potential to destabilize what is a pretty calm situation. >> for the last eight years, it had the potential to destabilize. if you don't like the president, i dm like the last one. it doesn't matter. you have to be agnostic. there's no way to thread that needle. if you want to be a buy the market long term, buy the market long term. >> what do you think? if you get out, you can't catch the upside. >> he's right about that. you saw february 11 of 2016 proved that. 1810 in one day. happy birthday. >> listen. volatility, i've been wrong. i thought it was a single digits. especially in he is benign this evening. >> still ahead, youtube taking shot at the skinny bundle. we'll talk to the ceo. plus, target having its worst

day. and snap chat might be worse less than you think.

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making its plastic form the cheapest to trade from. it was short-lived. it would be an aggressive rebuttal since it just lowered. good for traders but not so good for the firms who derive a percentage. etrade, 21%. all those stocks were lower. the price battle isn't just among online growers. hedge funds pushing for lower fees. it was cutting fees for the second time in eight months. at the same time, we're also seeing consolidation within asset managers. is there a race to the bottom for fees on wall street? who is equipped to survive. >> yes. you just mentioned a few schwab,

schwab is within, before today, effectively trading at an all time high. these stocks. they are going to race to zero. it is not good for any of them. trying to pick a space in terms of of the one i just mentioned. go to morgan stanley, goldman sachs, jpmorgan. given the headlines, with the yield curve. not a good idea. >> those three companies are the most high to a rising rate environment. >> the others have a lot of noise to their benefit, to guy's point. it helps out when commissions are lowered. it's negative. >> the yield curve, as much as i've made noise about it flattening. we're on the upper side of the mean. you've seen plenty of cycles,

much flatter than it is right now. if you want to buy banks, you guy money setter banks. i think regulation is coming down and i think they're the ones the profitability and they're cheapest. bank of america and city bank have the biggest problems and a lot of that will go away. to buy these dips? we talked to rich. covered the space for a long time. his ratings are currently under review given the news. >> they should be under review. in materials of, i agree with him. these are specific names. we talked about it. at current valuations, given the cutting of commissions. it is not going away. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. the ceo mark beenoff just sat down and many some surprising comments.

i'm melissa lee. first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> here's how investors in target felt today. the former head of sachs said now is the time to buy. plus, the man who wrote the book on valuations and called it on amazon years ago has a big call to make on snap chat. and he'll be here to reveal it exclusively with "fast money" returns. is the stuff that matters?, the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.

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the best month in a year. google's youtube stepping into the skinny bundle. julia boorstin spoke with the ceo a year ago. the king of valuation says it is worth much, much less than many on wall street think. first we start with target shares missing the mark completely today. shares are plummeting 12%. the worst single day in eight years. this after the company missed big earnings. the ceo announcing a turn around plan today. courtney reagan sat down with him today. live with the very latest. hi, court. >> reporter: good evening to you. so after target put out their fourth quarter results, they also lowered the full year guidance and then met with analysts for the community day that they have here in new york city. and that's where i got a chance to sit down exclusively with the

ceo to talk about the turn-around man. >> we have lots of work to do. >> this won't happen overnight. it is a three-year plan that we put in place. and this is about investment. we have the initiatives. ultimately we'll return to growth. we think there is significant market share opportunities. people are closing shares. and as we close, we have an opportunity to be one of the future winners. >> cornell and other executives detailed target's three-year plan. they will invest $7 billion to improve online operations and delivery. remodel 600 stores. build out 100 or more of the smaller format stores in more densely populated areas. they'll introduce 12 new brands and are going to take a hit to margins in order to lower prices. but the thing is, target has been working on a number of

these initiatives. so, too, have competitors like walmart. you might remember over a year ago, walmart said in the fall of 20 final that it was remodeling stores. investing in digital and supply chain and lowering. they have gone positive, stayed positive for some time. perhaps at target's expense. >> all right. thank you. >> excellent interview. courtney had mentioned before the comparison to walmart. maybe shareholders can take solace in a turn around. they hit a multiyear low. november 2015. the very same concerns about technology spending. the stocks have climbed down. rising 25%. so should we expect a similar turn-around here? or is target too late? >> well, can you expect it? you can try to expect. but i don't think, listen.

you listen what target did to walmart's demise. it went from 55 to 85. target, that is. it's done a turn. we're the lowest we've seen. walmart seems to be far ahead of it. in 35% of u.s. households. that's a great number. except over the last ten years. down from about 55%. that will continue to go wrong way. it is very difficult to get that back. so you can make an argument. valuation very cheap. there is no growth right now. in my opinion, absolutely has to hold 55. >> i think you want to see growth online and i know the whole, something that was okay. but remember that walmart made the acquisition. target will have to do something that will only increase the spending. to me this one probably has more room to the down side. something in the mid to low 50s.

you ran sachs, the chairman of the national retail federation. we're always pleased to have you. you think this is target's walmart moment? >> i hope it is. it is a big challenge. walmart did it. i think target can do it too. brine cornell has a terrific turn-around in place. he has to walk and run and do everything at once. he is right. it is a disruption. change is needed. a change is needed quickly and he's making the investments. >> change is needed and yet in the interview, he was very reluctant and said they were not going to close stores. they're going to spend anyone refurbish about 600 plus stores. is that the right strategy? why put so much money for

remodeling. we're in a transformative period. jcpenney announced they were closing 100 or so some odd stores. he thinks it is right. clearly the investment in the internet, small format stores are right. he thinks it will pay off. i think there's a that i goer issue that we have to deal with. the consumer wants value. and value can be price, quality, also for target, the cool factor. part of what made target an $84 share price was it was target. the fashion forward. great price, fashion forward. he is introducing a lot of new brands. he has to make them cool. to me that's more important than the other factors. yeah, he will make the dollar investment but he has to have the right products that people will get excited about. >> so steve, originally we talked about brick and mortar. now we're thinking about this dynamic.

are there enough head wins for the consumer, lower prices, a bus for all retail. first of all, there are some winners in there. burlington, ross stores, costco. i can give you a list of a lot of retail companies that are winning and the consumers are buying. it is the companies adapting fast that are winning. and the real issue is whether these legacy companies, the department stores, or the targets. today it felt like this wasn't about guidance. it was a strategy overhaul. >> they made the dot com acquisition. this is brian cornell's moment.

this is our game plan to change and win in this new environment. it is a big challenge, as i said. and i think you're split. a buy or a sell. i think that it is a strategic move on his part. from his perspective, it is the right thing to do. >> is there a possibility? we tend to think of target versus walmart. wall smart is already out in front of target in terms of these moves and low prices every day, et cetera. is there a possibility that target could get -- >> i don't look at this as a target walmart. amazon is the behemoth. they're playing in groceries and every category that target is selling in. i think it is a very vast environment where walmart and target could win. the issue is whether they can change fast enough. >> world is moving so quickly. a couple years ago walmart was able to pull this off. it seems, can target go the way

of alexander's gimbles, abraham and strauss. they can become a dinosaur very quickly. >> i think a lot of those department stores certainly face the risk. you're clearly going to see it in the second and third year companies. i don't think target is the same. target has a very good core loyal following. i think the question is can they -- >> it continues to dwindle, year over year. it is trending the wrong way. >> what happens if there's a border adjustment tax? >> i think that's the big question mark out there. i call it existential. it is a war.

they said best buy would go from a billion profit to 2 billion loss with a border adjustment tax. the profit rnmargins are thin. if you can't deduct the cost of those goods, you're basically wiping out the profits of all these companies. >> good to see you. steve sadove. form former saks head. >> the price war in broad lines and staples is spreading even further. walmart is so far from immune. if you want to put relative value on. i own target. it made major adjustments in digital. and i'm guessing you bought that tie at gimbles. >> we have the same tie on! >> see? they're fat tuesday ties.

>> i've been an amazon fan forever. you look at them as retail. they're killing everybody else in the space. i still believe in a zero sum game, amazon is the one that goes home with the ball. >> let's stick with retail. costco reporting earnings. thursday after the bell. one betting that it is heading for a big drop. >> february 2, it reported comps. it was a monster. today, while target was down 12, 13% on the opening. costco was all time highs. so the berngs 3% on average. it has moved about 2.5%. the volume was about 3 times that have calls. the stock was trading 177. after noon, 4,000 of the march 3 weekly. this friday expiration.

we have a chart here. maybe for you technical people, this is possibly a disaster. that's the long position. that was the breakout level. from earlier in the month. so obviously, you don't want to read too much into somebody reaching out for a break even. down 4.5% over the next few days. that's not a great way to make money. this looks likes some sort of protection. >> steve mentioned costco as a winner there are way too many stores for dollars. prices are going down. deflation. >> for more options action. check it out on friday at 5:30. still ahead, very volatile after hours. plus, google's youtube watching its skinny bundle. julia boorstin just spoke with the ceo moments ago.

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hulu and directv have been put on notice. youtube, the latest to take over your living room. providing access to about 40 live networks. hi, julia. >> reporter: youtube announcing its big play for tv subscription and advertising dollars with a live streaming bundle. youtube tv which will launch here in the u.s. in the coming months will cost $thrive a month with no commitment. $35 a month. live stream to any mobile device or google connected tv. plus unlimited cloud dvr. no storage units and each will come with six accounts. each with personalized recommendations. the skinny bundle includes the four broadcast networks plus espn, regional networks including fox news and cnbc. subscribers can pay extra for showtime. we spoke with the ceo about

taking on the cable and satelli satellite. she said she's tapping into the audience of already 1 million viewers. >> it is for anyone who loves tv. we think that the cord cutters and the millennials who are used to watching tv content in a specific way, there is an opportunity to watch tv the way they've been used to using online content. on demand, they can search it. it is available on any device. so we see a big opportunity with the audiences. >> now, the skinny package does not include any channels from viacom, or time warner. that means no cnn or hbo. while they may add more channels, they do have the content they need to appeal to a broader audience. >> so many questions. >> why would i need hulu to get access to the series available

on nbc? especially when they're offering free dvr through the cloud? >> well, this is definitely a rival to a product that hulu has announced but hasn't launched yet. they announced they'll be doing a live streaming service. it will be a bundle of channels. that will be launching in the next month or so. this will be a direct rival to that. what is different here is that they're bundling in this youtube red content. so there is a subscription of youtube originals. and you can pay to get on a monthly basis. that will be included. the hulu audience, it might be a slightly different audience focused on the television product. where youtube will be going into the people who are baked this big youtube fans. i think they'll be going head to head. and it will be going head to head now. >> so it seems like it goes head to head with the directv or the at&t time warner bundle. then ones left out in the cold

may be the cable companies. >> well, look. we have to remember that the media companies that are selling their content have said that they will get paid as much from being included in bundles like this one from youtube as well as the one that hulu is launching that they get from selling their content through traditional cable or satellite tv players. for them this is yet another revenue stream. they hope this is incremental. that it will be reaching people who don't yet pay for a cable tv bundle. the question is how time warner cable, chart he, and comcast react. maybe they'll offer their services over the top just to mobile devices. we'll see more skinny bundles. we've seen great success from the skinny bundles from the cable and satellite tv companies. and this past quarter was a very strong one for cable tv. neighbor whole audience will grow. >> all right.

thank you. what's the impact here? what are we looking at? >> in 2016, youtube groebl $10 billion in sales. more than what netflix did. if you're a google investor which i know you are, you feel pretty good about that. they probably houng to monetize better. and the last thing i would add, can you think of a better thing than maybe adding a twitter to the google family to help monetize it and get to it a broader audience? to me, i think google, we don't think of them as social. but youtube is the second largest social property by revenue behind facebook and we learned today, they get billion hours a day. they are dominating that space and they had probably better tools for advertisers. they're bumper ads and things are helping. for advertisers, it is much more topical for them to search whether they're getting

performance. >> you're going after the court. the price sticks out immediately for me. $35 a month seems too much. i think if you're going for people that already have cable, to your point when you asked julia, that's a better area. it does take away business incrementbly from the cable companies to get people a pay as you go a la carte method. but amazon, amazon prime. no reason to buy them. >> coming up, wall street has its eyes on snap chat. could snap's valuation disappear following its ipo? the dean of valuation is here with a reality check for investors. and can you explain to me why you recommend synthetic over cedar? "super food"? is that a real thing? it's a great school, but is it the right the one for her? is this really any better than the one you got last year? if we consolidate suppliers what's the savings there? so should we go with the 467 horsepower? or is a 423 enough? good question. you ask a lot of good questions... i think we should move you into our new fund.

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welcome back. snap chat. the company is expected to price shares above its orange range of $14 to $16 a share. the new range is set to be $17 to $18 a share. the road show went really well. that would value the company at $25 billion. more than twice what twitter is

worth today. our next guest has an urgent warning for wall street. the dean of valuation is here with that warning. >> i'm not sure it is a warning. the idea is a pricing gap. you can start at 25 and go to 45. think of twitter. if you're willing to pay the pricing game. there's nothing wrong with entering at that price. i just think if you're interested as an investor, you have to ask, is there value? and i think while there are ways to get to $25, 30 billion. they're tough to navigate. that's what i'm pointing out. >> that's like a blue sky valuation in your view. what is your valuation for snap? >> i gave them a pretty attractive valuation. a half billion in revenues. i gave them almost a 14 $15

billion value. i think they have something that twitter does not have. i've been speaking to bobby murphy, think about the business. not just the app. i think they are much more intense users than people ever had. people stay on the platform so you can sell the adds. 25 billion can be reached. >> they have 400 million in sales. twitter got to 2.5 billion. they're going to get to twitter's 300 million monthly active users and it may have broader appeal internationally. does it make you cautious? >> to get to a $25 billion, they have to get the revenue. >> twitter didn't. it still had 500 million. >> there is a pricing game.

this could go either way. it could take off and double in the next six months. the pricing game has its own momentum. as a value game, my biggest problem is they're entering a space. we have two giants that are not willing to see it. google and facebook. that scares the heck out of me as an investor. already facebook is trying outsnap snap with what's up. >> when you've come up with valuations for past ipos, what is the valuation been compared to what it trades at that day? and then six months or a year down the line. how do you test whrgs you're measuring what you do, your work that you do versus the market valuation. do you say this is the point in time in which i'm comparing my work to the market? >> rather than track prices. it is revenues and margins. if they're consistently falling

above, i've screwed up. i have to go back and revisit. i've had to do that six or seven time on facebook. that company constantly continues to amaze me by expanding its market. twitter on the other hand, amazes me in the other direction. by shrinking the market each time i look at them. i look at the revenues and margins. that's what drives it. i would love to tell you i don't care about the price but it is constantly, it is on your mind when you're thinking, what should do i next about this company? >> is your gut feel that it is more like a twitter than a facebook or the other way? >> i think it is more like a facebook than a twitter. i think it has the ingredients. part of the reason i say that. twitter never thought beyond users. that seemed to be their only selling point right from the beginning. >> the dean of valuation. >> that's a hefty title. i don't know much about snap

chat but it seems the demographic is 9-year-olds to 21-year-olds and then people drop off. i don't know how they increase the revenue base is the user base ages out. >> so when you ask that question, is it more like facebook or twitter, i still hold twitter. and it feels more like a twitter. these things come up quicker and quicker and quicker. >> would you buy it? >> no. i think we're at a place where i think there's too much competition. >> would you buy it? >> i can't comment on that but i don't think growth peaked. if writ -- >> the delta. they didn't have any revenue two years ago.

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