>> pensions, insurance. is that it relevant? >> it is relevant. the banks who make the money on the spread between the long and the short. that's where they make the money. >> i understand. >> evan and michael, thank you. pleasure as always. have a great weekend. that does it. "fast money" begins now. >> it sure does. "fast money" starts right now from the market site overlooking "new york times" square. our traders on the desk. tim seymour, guy adami. hi. >> hi. tonight on "fast," snap surging for the second straight day after its ipo debut. the company now worth more than twitter, american airlines and chipotle. despite the hefty valuation, the company could actually be cheap. we'll explain. plus, gold just posted its worst

week since december and a top technician says it could be facing a perfect storm. in other words, a bad one. and then later, big trouble for one surging dow stock. see that mystery stock? we'll tell you the name later. we start with the if he had chair janet yellen. steve leaseman has more. steve? >> thanks. two extraordinary aspects to this speech that yellen gave. she was so explicit about a rate like. the second is the market reaction. let's hear what she said. everybody is talking about the march rate like. >> at our meeting later this month the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation continuing to evolve in line with our expectations. in which case, a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. >> and boom, there it's it was. saying a march rate like is on

the way. she said it is likely to be three rate likes this year, confirming what the committee has said. it is nearing employment, inflation goals. the global economy strengthening and made no comment on trump policies, bringing them into the forecast. it had been down around 73, 74% after this week ratcheted it up to the 85% and then scaled back to 80%. 78. there it is. it came down to 70 minutes. the key is this rate like is baked in. what would happen if the fed didn't do it? there would be some dispointed members. it would be a loss of credibility. i think the if he had is pretty well baked in. the only thing could stop it now is a a weak jobs report. how weak? maybe even below 125,000 for the fed not to go on its appointed

rounds. >> i would think it would have to be incredibly weak. at this point it fees like the fed has painted itself into a corner. if they don't like rates, it would be super disappointed. >> i'm not sure the if he hfed ultimate control. i think they wanted flexibility. if you look at the probability chart, it was down below 8% and spend a lot of time below 25%. they wanted flexibility. then you had a number of people coming out. we interviewed down this week. and then they said the case is compelling. if even the doves are saying, they're going on hike rates. the fed in gaining flexibility may have done what you said and painted itself into a corner. >> put simply, don't you think

the market was 400 s&p 500 points lower? it might not be so vocal? they're claiming they won't move on fiscal policy until they see economic outcome. how much is the market? >> i think a lot of it is the market. here's my take on what's happening. the market is very, very focused on the trump administration and trump administration policies. this is raised, at least the reason why it looks like it is higher, why forecasts are hire, economic forecasts and bond yields are higher. i think the fed is using the cover of darkness to do what it can. to get where it wants to get to. a higher rate environment and do so in a way that doesn't upset markets. when you look at the extraordinary outcome, the market is up a bit. down off the highs here. the yields the can bump to the 250 plus range. and they came down a little bit today.

and here in the conference, everybody in the conference was talking about how nonplussed the market was. >> and yet it seems to hold on. thank you so much. >> have a great weekend. >> what would be worse for the snarkt a rate hike or no rate sn hike? >> no rate hike would be worse. they're border line now. if they weren't to move in the next few weeks, they would lose any semblance. whether it is causality or not, president trump is taking a lot of credit for this stock market rally. whether he should or shouldn't, that's not the the point. if we say sell-off for whatever reason and after the if he had raises rates. i see a scenario where he blames

the if he had. look at the fake fed. waited until he was president to raise rates. starts push go the blame off. and that to me could be an event that leads the a bigger sell-off. >> they have to raise rates. they need to continue to message where the market feels gfl the increasing confidence that they have in the economic or reflation and globally. that's something they're talking about. i think tim is 100% right about the market. we're at 2,400. and they do have that cover. it is really important that they get to some normalized situation. because let's face it. the fed funds rates prior to the 2007 all time highs. above 5%. back in 2000, it was above -- >> what is normalized? >> then months ago, people were complaining it could not stand up on its own. in 2016, it was how much global

sovereign deck. the fear was that is the next step for us. and that's my point west need to get back to a point where we have all time highs in s&p ma e margi margins. ? is it fopossible the market goe down no matter what? if they raise rates? >> the equity market is rallying for the reasons behind the tax reform. it is driving stocks. no question about it. if we were in an environment where donald trump wasn't president. we had clinton as president and we were going through massive tax reform at the corporate level, the individual level. there's no way the equity market would be trade go anywhere near. if we saw the data coming in better and we were about to raise rates. at that point you would say the market are roll over. it will only sell off if they

don't move on rates. had listen, what's the long end of the curve telling you? why is that? >> investors do not believe in the sustainability of growth. they believe the stocks are up because of an expectation of better taxes. tax reform. >> i think when had all right they get there and talk about the continual process of raise go rates. you have to consider what dana is talking about. normalizing interest rates. this is not about one or two or three hikes. this is sex . this is six to eight hikes. they're manipulate go, they're staging it whatever where the market is. or they're being more aggressive about it. >> this is very interesting. i think it goes back to your very first point. lyle don'tated money to hillary

clinton. thi she is very open to donald trump criticizing her saying now that i'm president, you want to hurt the economy. >> isn't this her way of joining forces? dovish to me would be clinging to the old fed. i think the easteirony here. trump was criticizing the fed for cow towing to the fed. he wants loose policy now, too. >> you said the dollar. this is a guy who got the call in january. he's now fired his national security adviser to ask what a strong dollar means for our economy. we know that happened. don't think that there is any plan by his part whatsoever. i don't think he knows what he's talking about, to be frank. >> in terms of currency.

donald trump doesn't. >> i don't think he knows what the cycle means. >> forget that the president. let's talk about the fed. if it did you tell move, their confidence is shot based on people coming out this week making such direct comments about the fed not moving. it's happening. we went from 20 to 80 plus in seven days. >> what about the that banks? >> should you be buying the bank that's the the fed does hike? >> i think banks are okay. the banks traded well. it was a pretty benign tape and it nung there relatively well yesterday. i think it is such that the banks can rally. if for whatever reason it did sell off. he will absolutely blame -- he is taking credit for the way up.

he will blame others on the way down and that could be very disruptive. >> even if the fed overplays their hand, i think banks can rally to the point where we see credit conditions heighten from an economy that's slowing too fast. the banks benefit when people think the yield is going higher. >> are you buying? >> absolutely. and i think to me if, the games i want to buy. the city and bank of america have a lot more to run. these are companies that i think have the biggest regulatory targets on their back. and that's the they know that you get. no matter what happens with dodd frank, the essence. >> i love the banks. for several months. i think it is time to take off some risk with the larger cap banks. i think the regional banks will perform well. i think it is a lot longer than people are expect go for reform

to occur to show up in the bottom lien of the banks. i think lending will occur but not as quickly as you think. they talked about lending being dampened. that may be a fact of a couple things. either the demand is there and they don't want to lend. they can lend during a better period. or demand stlnlt yet and it may take some time than people expect. i think the winners are the regional banks. i think the larger cap banks, you have to take a walk. you sell those winners. >> all right. enough of the fed talk. gold just posted its worst week of the year. is the strong dollar, rise go rates and a growing economy signalling the perfect storm for that commodity? plus, snap surging for the second straight day. one of our traders says had this

is a buy. what is he seeing? and later, one technician says there's trouble in the charts. we'll give you a name and how to profit. much more "fast money" right after this break. what's the value of capital? what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the wos? the valu capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley mom,on my car insurance of money by switching to geico. i should taka closer look at geico... you know, geico can help you save money on your homeowners insurance too? great! geico can help insure our mountain chalet! how long have we been sawing this log? um, one hundred and fourteen years.

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welcome back. a look at snap inc.'s second day of trading. snap shears bringing the stock 60% from its listing price of $17. but analysts are raise go concerns about the sky high valuation. a price target of $22 at year end raising concerns about facebook copying some of its features. other analysts have more cautious near term targets. recommending they reduce their ownership stakes while pivotal has a sell rating and a $10 price target. to put snap's $37.6 billion market cap in context, it is more than three times twitter's market cap and roughly the same as target and marriott's valuations. though still just a fraction of

facebook's which is nearly $400 billion. but media companies do see huge value in snap's hold on millennials. those 20 and under spend 30 minutes per day use go snap chat. they invested 500 million in the ipo at this time only u.s. company with a stake. innocence universal chief steve burk saying this is a significant milestone and it's a growing partnership with snap pointing to the discovery. saying through the rio games, the snap generated over 2 billion views. >> that kicks off our top trades. snap is now worth more than cbs and macy's.

so how do you evaluate it? they now actually look cheap in comparison. i think it is impossible to compare it to the other ones. one thing to remember, the stock is up 60% from the ipo price of $17. why do company go public? to raise capital. and then they deploy the capital. if you think back to facebook in 2012, they knew they would be getting a lot of capital. they boughter oculus. and the what's app deal. so the point is, we don't know what they're going to do. they're coming off a the very small base. i think a couple of analysts have been out on the street and hit go the name on valley sgags that doesn't make a lot of sense to me when you consider that they had about $400 million in revenues. >> how much do you think is

scarcity value? you think about social is now media and digital ad and a bunch of places. if you're media, you have to have a toe hold. >> you weren't on the program last night. it is one of the only pure reality plays in the market. they haven't really monetized that. >> did you decide that last night? >> yes. >> how about user growth? you bring up facebook and twitter. twitter did a terrible job. they didn't go out and make acquisitio acquisitions. modernization is the key ingredient. when you think about, i'm sorry. user growth is the key degreed. it is decelerate go since last yeefrlt since june of last year. they put up in that quarter, the second quarter. they added roughly 21 million.

>> instagram added 150 million users. in six months. >> people plowing into the stock including nbc universal. they're not selling it any time soon. >> they could buy something that helps add to growth in a dramatic way. >> and they can go out tomorrow. >> it is taking them a long time. they have an ability to get through. i would say two or three quarters. >> are you buying this? >> no. >> are you buying this? are you buying this? >> for a trade, i would be long. i think you have to be very careful going to earns reports. you have to be very careful buying stocks like this. for a long term perfect. had as tim suggested. i wouldn't own this thing. >> he was spot on number one. there's a chance they grow into this at some opponent 100%.

but 30 minutes a day on average? >> no wonder productivity levels are falling. >> productivity levels? get a math book. >> still ahead, gold just posted its first of the year cox there be even more trouble in store? our traders will weigh in. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. we are first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up. >> that's what apple is doing to a key supplier. we'll tell you the stock and how to profit. plus, one of the stocks showing signs of cooling off. here's a hint. and we'll tell you how to cash in when "fast money" returns.

it's your tv, take it with u. with directv from at&t, ream all your live channels, on yr devices. switch to directv d lock in urrice for 2ears. new offers startinat $25/mo when y have the new at&t unlimited ps pl.

this suit was filed in late january doofl to a clerical error at the court, we're now just finding out about it. the court document citing a claim on patents and designs.

separately they are suing the chip designer in federal court in california allege go that qualcomm is monopolizing the chip sets and withholding $1 billion. the ceo saying they were insisting on charging royalties for technologies they had nothing to do with. we're in a situation where the more we innovated with unique features like cameras, just to name a few, the more money qualcomm got. recall this in part is due to a margins story. cook like every ceo wants to squeeze as much product from his products as he can. getting licensing fees is one way to achieve that goal. qualcomm ceo telling cnbc this week, we are probably not going on engage in a battle of press but i think we have a very strong case. as we start to respond formally, people will hear a different narrative.

investors concerned though. they know in 2016, about one-third of the revenue came from high margin licenses. so far this year, qualcomm is the worst performing tech stock in the s&p 500. back to you. >> thank you very much. all right. had either of these stocks involved? >> i think you can own qualcomm. that's the long side exit point. >> i see these head winds for qualcomm. they're happening here. i don't know why you have to jump in here even if it does. >> let's shift from apples to limes. spring break is here. students across america are getting toward hit the beach. so on we're picking stocks with which we want to party. tim. >> i want to be on the beach in ft. lauderdale drinking some diageo spirits. this is a company actually

gaining in the u.s. >> is that really your buy? >> is there a surprise with that? >> when did you shave your back? >> every night. after the show. >> i talk about negative all the time. skechers is a name i would buy. i think the upside is $6. >> that does it for us on "fast money." "options action" starts after the break. s your tv, take it wi.

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well, hello. this is "options action." while the guys are getting ready, here's what's coming up on the show. >> look, in the sky, it's a bird, it's a plane. >> no. just certain components of the dow jones industrial average. and we'll tell you which ones could pull back of. >> plus -- >> it's the perfect storm. >> that's what some are saying is about to happen to gold. and we'll tell you how low they see it going. and how you can cash in. and -- missed the run and snap?