i've asked pharma, the lobbying group for the pharmaceutical industry, and they haven't weighed in on it yet. >> so glad she's working to raise awareness about it. obviously with everything else going on in washington these days. thanks for joining us with that story, our meg terrell. happy birthday, alan greenspan. >> 91. >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now, i'm scott walker in for melissa lee. our traders on the desk, tonight on "fast," a top technician says one group of stocks is so bad, it might actually be good for your portfolio. plus mohamed el-erian will tell us what he believes is really behind the rally. and otheh, snap, shares of p

falling. the company slapped with sell ratings. were are so many analysts so cold on the hottest ipo of the year? we'll explain. first, white house press secretary sean spicer taking impromptu questions outside the white house moments ago, we go to eamon javers. >> reporter: that's right, scott, i had a chance just a few minutes ago to ask sean spicer here about a spears of tweets we get from president trump just in the past hour. i believe we have some of those tweets loaded up. the president here talking about exxonmobil, touting that company for a $20 billion investment initiative that the white house says will create thousands of jobs in the gulf coast region. interestingly, though, in the press release that exxon put out about this, you see there the president talking about jobs, jobs, jobs, thank you, exxonmobil, in the press release that exxonmobil put out about this, they say the series of investments began in 2013. so when sean spicer came out to take a few questions in the driveway, i asked him whether or not the white house is trying to

take political credit for a program that actually had begun during the obama administration. here is how sean spicer answered that question just a minute or so ago. >> what i'm telling you is, to answer your question, it is information that exxon provided us, that they believe, based on what they see as a favorable business climate from the president, a commitment to help manufacturing grow here and a commitment to american workers, that they want to grow their investment here in the country. but it is based on them telling us that they will continue to expand based on the president's vision and philosophy to help keep jobs here in america, obtain a more regulatory and tax business environment that will help them hire more, invest more, and grow more here in america. >> reporter: scott, sean spicer there essentially arguing it is fair for the white house to talk about the program even though it began in 2013 because exxonmobil is telling the white house they're continuing it because of their confidence in president trump's economic leadership.

there you have the white house ending the day, so to speak, talking about business, the economy, and taxes, on a day that began talking about donald trump's tweets. and also on a day in which we saw a new executive order from this white house on immigration, lowering the number of countries impacted by the president's executive order from seven to six. the new executive order would bar new visas for citizens from six muslim majority countries. the ban is going to be in place for 90 days. and it doesn't apply to those who have valid visas or green cards. some of these items are cleaning-up concerns from the first executive order that the white house issued back on january 27th. this time around the white house is saying they're going to have a much smooth eer rollout, all this it takes place and go into effect on march 15th, scott, that gives airports across the country some ability to process this and get ready for the new rule, scott. >> eamon, spicer's briefing was

off camera. >> reporter: right. >> in this session you were part of, impromptu, outside of the white house, did he entertain any questions or say anything about the president's tweets over the weekend about president obama? >> reporter: he did. he took questions on a variety of subjects here. it was sort of unscheduled. the press secretary just appeared in the driveway, which of course is his right and we always encourage him to do that. earlier today he did what we call a gaggle, that was off-camera. he did take a number of questions about this. the white house is saying they are simply not providing any additional information about whatever the president's source of information might have been for his tweet in which he alleged that former president obama wiretapped him illegally during the presidential campaign. the white house not offering up any explanation, any classified information, any sourcing for why the president would have tweeted that, simply calling on congress to investigate. the white house says they believe there's enough there for congress to investigate to get to the bottom of it. they're simply standing on that

tweet and saying that tweet speaks for itself but not offering up any explanation or evidence of any kind. >> eamon javers, thanks very much. investors would have had any number of reasons to hit the as you will button today based on those tweets over the weekend. and this is china growth. they had everything. plus we haven't had a good selloff in quite some time. i think that's the predominant overarching reason to sell this market off, is that guys are getting a little bit tight on do i buy the top, getting worried. if they're not buying the top, what are they doing, are they sitting on their hands? they certainly have not been selling it. and today they didn't sell the market. even when we're down five or ten handles, if we were down a lot more, we just weren't. the market has not been sold yet. we're still waiting on why. >> the question is when will it and what will cause it. >> the weakest sector in the market today was retail. there's something directly going on, not just amazon, something

going on with the consumer. despite how unstable the white house has been over the last couple of months, it's important to remember, if they get bogged down in the sorts of controversy they seem to be getting bogged down with, and they have a situation where it's just health care, and they can't do the trifecta this year, tax reform, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus, then the u.s. consumer will have a big problem. and a lot of people who voted with their pocketbooks and they won't get a 2017 tax cut, may turn on this president. that could be a real issue. >> a quick pushback, things are getting better economically, because the obama line or the democrat line was, things were getting better before he came into office. so i'm not sure where the consumer was hurting. >> well, you're not sure. all you have to do is look at the retailers. >> retailers -- >> we've seen heavy discounting again and again. it's pretty obvious.

>> sure, but -- >> your point is the weak innocence the retaness in the retailers, you have to get things done in 2017 to validate people's votes. we've seen this market is basically willing to take a punt on even the expectation of something. we saw that even tuesday night or wednesday. we got nothing last tuesday night yet the market had its best thing all year. i'm not saying at its core we should be doing cartwheels, because i think the biggest problem right now with retail and the consumer ask that the fed is lurking. the fed told us last week, this isn't three rate hikes, this is a cycle. >> let me just finish this. there was a whole chain of thought, there was a whole chain of thought saying that the rally, whatever the rally was, wasn't due to trump, right? everyone looked for a reason.

>> which rail erally? >> the first one, after the election. >> of course it was, what are you talking about? >> you guys told me the market was doing better and that if hillary was elected, it would have rallied the same way. i listened to it. >> no doubt about it, the market rallied in november because trump was elected. >> a lot of us said that no matter who was elected, the market would rally. >> i'll jump in here and tell you that i think we would have had a relief rally no matter who was elected, whether it would have been of the magnitude in certain sectors, no, i don't think you would have gotten the same moves in the banks. >> you just finished saying that the reason why the market -- >> who cares about that? >> you just said that the market is going on on a leap of faith. >> it's undeniable that -- >> i was agreeing -- i was agreeing that i said you could have seen some rally after the election. that's all i said. if in fact you want to attach words to it, that's a different story. >> you just said the market was going on a leap of faith, if they got one thing out of the

three. all i'm saying is that if -- >> excuse me. we're talking about the election results. over the last couple of weeks, i do agree about it we get corporate tax reform and didn't get health care reform and didn't get fiscal policy in 2017, that will be enough to satisfy this market in the short to medium term without the fed, without all these other exogenous factors. >> can we all agree that the market has rallied the way it has on optimism about president trump's agenda? >> yes. >> are we all in agreement? >> yes. >> so if the market doesn't want to seemingly go down on almost anything, what takes this market down? >> debt ceiling in a couple of weeks. the federal reserve, another three times this year that nobody seems to want to acknowledge. >> is it the fed, too complacent? >> goldman sachs put a note out last week -- we've talked about this on this desk. it still has an 11 handle on it. it's not like people are all that concerned. people are at a point now where they're like, i bought all this insurance over the last 18

months, two years, and it expired, worthless, the market goes up, i'm not doing anymore. that scares us. >> when does the market need to see actual results, to dan's point and others, on the real programs that matter, tax cuts? >> you need to see -- >> obamacare first, i can't get to the tax question. >> you get another a couple of weeks. the reason to do the obamacare thing, it frees up a lot more cash, allows the scoring of the tax plan to pass. >> at what point does this other noise start to factor into the way investors feel about the market? >> right now it's not. >> by the time you get into the second earnings season, you'll have a lot more commentary from the fed about the rest of this cycle and you'll get seasonals. may will be potentially nasty. if you don't get any eps growth, that's the bottom line here. you can't tell me markets that have been distorted by central

banks for years aren't suddenly going to suffer if the fed is more aggressive than people are expecting. they're all on board now. when she starts defending being behind the curve which is what she did on friday -- >> and president trump gave a speech and the market rallied. i don't say that the fed is a zero but i think the fed's bite is a lot less than it was. people are myopic on those tax cuts. >> this is going to be the third rate increase in ten years. >> off a zero interest rate. >> right. >> we have no idea. we have no idea. >> we do have an idea. there's an 80% chance of a fed rate hike and the market hasn't done anything. what do you mean? we've seen the market be pulled back in. >> we care about 100 bips. >> we don't have 100 bips. >> no one's paying attention to that. >> let's move on. >> infrastructure, tax policy. >> mohamed, please.

>> you have to stop thinking of trading policy and maybe you'll trade better. >> do you want to respond? >> it's nonsense. >> they don't agree with you, it's nonsense. >> check, please. >> i honestly don't know what you're saying. >> you don't know what i'm saying? >> really. >> dan. dan. it's tax policy, it's deregulation, and it's infrastructure. that's what the market traded up on. i'll be glad to explain it to you after the show. >> i agree with you, steve. >> the aforementioned chief economic adviser from allianz, welcome, it's night to have you. >> thanks, i'm happy to wait, i'm loving this discussion. >> why don't you weigh in and join the conversation. what causes the market to pull back? >> so i think that there are three very deeply ingrained beliefs in this market. they have served investors extremely well. one is that the politics may be noisy, but it doesn't contaminate economics or possibly in a positive way, as

we just heard, if president trump is able to deliver on tax reform, infrastructure, and deregulation. second belief, the central banks are here for us, that they can repress volatility. they're both willing and able. the third belief deeply ingrained is that economic growth may not be very exciting but it is predictable. it is stable. the balance of risk is to the upside. these are very deeply ingrained beliefs. so you need major, major things to happen to shake investors out of those beliefs. and that's why so far, what we hear out of washington hasn't disturbed investors. that's why the fact that we had no content in president trump's speech last week, didn't disturb the markets. that's why a massive repricing of interest rate prospects didn't reprice the market. you need really major policy mistakes. >> how soon -- >> or major political developments.

>> how soon do we need the major political developments, as you say, before the market just gets tired of waiting? >> so i would have thought it should have happened already. in fact after i listened to president trump's speech, i thought, great tone, really positive tone, but the markets will worry about the lack of content, the lack of details. and guess what, the market didn't. the market just embraced the tone and said, we can wait on the content. so this seems, so far, to be a very patient market and it has surprised me the degree to which it has been patient. >> what about the fed? some suggest the fed should move, everybody's ready, everybody wants it, until the fed actually does hike, and then the market has a problem with it. what do you think? >> first of all i think it's amazing that the fed was able to reprice the markets without disrupting anything. whether you -- depending on how

you measure, in four days the fed managed to double or triple the probability of a fed hike within two weeks. that's a massive repricing of our expectations. it did that through a very measured approach. first you had the presidents of the regional fed, then you had dudley, then you had fisher and yellen, so they did this remarkably well. the equity markets shareholder rugg shrugged it off. this is not a one-off thing. this has a fundamental shift in the operating regime of the fed. first, it's becoming more strategic. it's thinking more long term. i think we're going to get at least three hikes this year. second, it's getting more confident about leading the market and not responding. so we're going to get out of this data dependent mode we've been in for a long time. >> mohamed, we appreciate the time, chief economist with allianz. who bought stuff in the market

today? >> i was buying shorts, i was buying puts, protection on things like the iym, iyt. small caps traded down to the 50 today, doesn't mean a whole lot. you could make the act that we're running into some resistance here. you're going to start to see some signs or manifestation that people are losing confidence, it's going to be in small gains. >> i've been an ongoing continuing buyer of monsanto. i think the deal stocks, they present an opportunity. we do have a fixed pricing mechanism, if those deals get through. that's the major risk. 127 1/2 is the deal price, monsanto. unfortunately i bought snapchat premarket on friday, it was good for about an hour, good for about an hour today as well, great on friday, good today, but now you have the negative barron story and it took a hit. hopefully it rallies back.

>> back to the u.s. consumer, look at a company like starbucks, they just had their fourth consecutive disappointing sales comp, their lowest since 2014. i'm positioned in that as of today. those are the sorts of names. if you don't get this whole sequence of events and then you get this rate tightening cycle and it doesn't mesh well together, i think the u.s. customer will be the tell first, then you'll see other things. >> salesforce announced a partnership with ibm after the bell. a huge deal for crm. still ahead, the chart master has a group of stocks he says are so bad, they're good. he's here with the names. and snap, as grasso said, traded lower for the first time since going public. analysts think there's more pain ahead for the social media company. why does wall street hate this stock so much? >> and dennis garthman is doing something he hasn't done for

years, at least since college. more "fast" straight ahead.

welcome back to "fast money." airlines sinking today after delta cut its first quarter

outlook. timmy? >> you're worried about capacity gains. we've seen domestic capacity in the last week go up 3.5%. that's a big issue, it always comes back to discipline for the airlines. valuations at a time when people are starting to scratch their heads and wonder where they come from, these things look good, delta, ual. >> do these have impact on the long term picture? >> i don't think so. we've had this conversation many times. what scares me about delta, we traded to about 52, which is where we topped out at the end of 2015. we just did it for the last couple of months here, he found 2016, beginning of 2017. delta is down today, but a couple of days more like this, then you say, have we put in a major double top on delta airlines, that's the question

traders will start to ask. >> it's been one of those gems in the airline space, it looks like it's under a lot of pressure. if the space rallies back, i would expect those old favorites to come back and play safe. >> some of the international carriers, i know they've consolidated really well, your point about the travel ban is one thing. when you think about tourism to this country, there's been some stories, there are certain countries people don't want to come here anymore from. that's not a political statement or ideological statement. i'm just -- you know, i didn't dream it up out of whatever, it wasn't on breitbart. >> i don't know if it's a big enough factor. it could be a big factor coming right out of it. there's only been a .4% optimistic. >> the biggest thing that drives airlines is their pricing power or lack thereof. i agree with guy.

these charts are struggling at two-year levels. they've been bucking up against them and failing over and over again. i don't think you need to chase them tomorrow, but the fundamentals here are good. i think it is different this time. >> one place we've been that i think works regardless, priceline had a monster week last week, an all-time high, within a whisper of an all-time high. i don't think it matters what airlines do, i think priceline still goes higher. coming up, the chart master is here with stocks so bad, they're good. i'm scott walker. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> oh, snap. >> announcer: that's what companies are saying about snapchat today after the company tanked 10%. and we'll tell you what's behind a sell rating. plus dennis gartman is doing

something he hasn't done in a long time and it could signal the next hot trade. he'll tell us what when "fast money" returns.

so beautiful. what shall we call you? tom! name it tom! studies show that toms have the highest average earning potential over their professional lifetime. see? uh, it's a girl. congratulations! two of my girls are toms. i work for ally, finances are my thing. you know, i'm gonna go give birth real quick and then we'll talk, ok?

nice baby. let's go. here comes tom #5! nothing, stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. whoo! look out. ♪ why can't we be friends ♪ why can't we be friends im vern, the orange money retirement rabbit, from voya. riiight. and that means...? i'm the money you save for retirement. i help you get organized so your money could multiply. see? got it. who's he?

he's green money for spending today. you know, paying bills, maybe a little online shopping... makes it easy to tell you apart. that, and i am better looking. i heard that. when it's time to get organized for retirement, it's time to get voya. or keeping a hotel's guests cuttinconnected.i to 35,000 fans... businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink.

e*trade's powerful trading tools, give you access to in-depth analysis, and a team of experienced traders ready to help if you need it. it's like having the power of a trading floor, wherever you are. it's your trade. e*trade

welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site. coming up, snap is tanking today since incidents ipo. and dennis gartman is doing something he hasn't done for years. he'll be here to tell you what it is. a nice rally for stocks over

the last month even as the yield on the ten-year continues to rise. morgan brennan has more from wall street. >> reporter: those so-called bond proxies, consumers staples are are outperformed the s&p' 3.7% gain. the utility etf up 5% over the last month, despite expectations that etfs will post lower. bond yields fell in february on concerns the trump rally was losing steam, policy reforms may not materialize in the economy until next year. but that's changing. so fed speak started last week. a steady drumbeat of more hawkish commentary from central bankers, culminating in a grand finale speech from fed chair yellen last week.

the fed sent the two-year note to its highest level since 2009. investors are rotating out of staples and telecom, making these the biggest laggards so far in march. brian belski noting reits should be sold. those defensive names will come under pressure not only as the if he had likely raises levels next week. a growing number of economists forecasting four hikes here rather than the two that markets had been factoring in just a few weeks ago, scott. >> morgan brennan from the new york stock exchange. our next guest things many of these stocks are so bad, they could be good, carter worth breaks it down for us. >> these obviously are in a market that has not a lot of

money mmow t men tum, there's been a recent shift. two lines, two colors. blue is s&p. and orange is s&p total return from the absolute nadir of the market in '09, which reminds us that dividends are a big part of this game. how about if i go back to 1990? total return more than double the results of just the market itself. and so with that as our setup, i want to look at the current action, not so much in staples versus utilities, telco versus reits, but high dividend yielding stocks as measured by an etf or two. the one i've chosen is aristocrat etf otherwise known as noble. the top panel of course is the etf itself. what we've got here is a whole

lotta nothing. the market, as we know, has been doing this. that represents the bottom panel. relative underperformance. what started of late is the following. now i draw the lines. actually the relative performance is starting to improve. we broke above the relative downtrend line in effect for the past 12 months. that's a very nascent and typically likely to follow kind of thing. so i'm making the bet that this area of the market which we know is so important to long term investing would be very important now. perhaps the long end of the curve isn't going to move that much. here is the current chart of the dividend aristocrats etf. you could draw the lines this way and call yourself a head and shoulders bottom. you also could put your trend line, the breakout, put your head and shoulders back on, we broke out, we checked, an excellent entry point for getting long and making the bet that this etf and others like it

will be headed higher, not lower, independent of rates. >> come on over, charter. >> bring him. >> come on down. >> thank you, sir. >> good to see you. >> we seem to be in the exact same spot. >> i make it happen. >> what do you think of the trade that he laid out technically? >> i guess the question is are we at a place here where stocks that have high divs but not notoriously or typically the ones known to be the fat div payers. the korcriteria for the noble ii forget what the rules are. >> not only is the yield decent but if they've been doing it for a long time, not just a one-off. >> right. >> not just utilities or reits or staples. the dividend yield for that is

three versus 1.9 the. >> carter, when i look at the noble, there's a lot of consumer staples. are there any of these yielding sectors that you just don't like? >> sure. there are individuals names. let's talk about some of the great beaten up -- someone like a macy's, they've got a 5% dividend yield. pitney bowes getting up to 6%. the key to this kind of thing is not picking a stock but doing it as a basket. >> what about the whole concept of whether dividend plays are a place to be, even if you think the yields are going to rise? the fed makes a move next week. >> that's fair. so the ten-year yield, when it became clear trump was going to be elected, traded down 1.72%, give or take, i might be off a little bit. obviously it's on either side of 2.5%. the same night, at&t was a $37 stock. at&t has rallied probably 14% in the wake of rates moving

significantly. and the market, yes, trading higher but not exploding higher. i think a name like at&t, i hear what carter is saying, i think at&t into the conference, they're speaking at wednesday, is a screaming -- >> another name like that is clorox, traded down to 112. it was 130 in june. it's now back up to 135. you're at a place here where a lot of these stocks on valuation don't make any sense. yes, rates were going higher, but these things had a massive run. i think you should be careful. >> do you want to be in staples which have a yield? >> i think there's a couple of things going on. obviously a lot of it is dollar exposure. we have to see where rates go, what that does to the dollar. there's a lot of competing headwi headwinds. >> tobaccos are making sharp highs. it's case by case. >> carter, thanks.

still ahead, the one group of stocks dennis gartman is calling a screaming buy, he'll tell us why he's bullish. millennials may love snapchat but wall street seems to hate it. the social media stock hitting the market with zero analyst buy ratings. what's behind the hate? we'll explain. it's not a banner that goes on a wall. it's not something you do now and then. or when it's convenient. it's using state-of-the-art simulators to better prepare for any situation. it's giving offshore teams onshore support. and it's empowering anyone to stop a job if something doesn't seem right. at bp, safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better. at bp, safety is never being satisfied. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers)

what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. dearthere's no other way to say this. it's over. i've found a permanent escape from monotony. together, we are perfectly balanced.

our senses awake. our hearts racing as one. i know this is sudden, but they say...if you love something set it free. see you around, giulia

welcome back to "fast money." breaking news on csx, seema mody is in the newsroom. >> that's right, hunter harrison was announced as chief executive officer of csx after mounti ini speculation that he would be joining the firm. we're looking at shares up fractionally after hours, mr. harrison replacing michael ward who announced his decision to retire on february 21st. he will become a consultant to csx effective immediately. >> thanks. remember, this was paul halal who spearheaded the canadian-pacific part of the story, leading the charge to get harrison into csx.

>> the c suite is part of the story here but the story has really been the underlying story of the pricing. csx went to 22 to 49 or so before this announcement. i'm someone that's been all about reflation and whatnot. if anything, i think this is where the transports have more pressure than they get from the airlines. >> csx is up 40% roughly coming into this. i would think that a hell of a lot is priced in. is it all priced in? you never know. i would think this is a time to take profits. >> 39% to date, i think once this news -- >> it's great news. >> once halal and harrison made it clear, the stock moved. >> this is' headline driven name. now when you see those headlines, that's when you take profits. snap dropping 12% today alone, closing below its debut

price. julia boorstin is in los angeles with more. >> reporter: hey, scott. not a single analyst has yet given snap a buy rating, making it the only u.s. snap with a market cap of $20 million with no recommendations. it dipped into the red for the first time, ending the day down more than 12%. this after it soared to close friday about 60% above its ipo price, partly on news that cnbc' parent company, nbc universal, took a $500 million stake in the company. but this weekend, barron's published an article slamming snap shares as, quote, ridiculously valued. just this morning, knee municipal said the stock is like a lottery ticket, cautioning about fundamental risks, such as people stealing its best ideas and no clear path to profitability before 2020.

reports last week were also negative as analysts honed in on concerns about valuation and competition. nomura giving the stock a $16 price target, pivotal, celebrating at a $10 price target, and aegis initiating a hold rating for the end of this year. now we're waiting to hear from the analysts from the 26 banks that were underwriters on ipo. the sec has a mandatory ten-day quiet period, some of them may wait longer. >> julia boorstin in los angeles, thanks. this was not a big surprise. who is going to come out and put a buy rating on the stock with the valuation that it is so soon after the ipo? >> when you consider all the people that bought it, they're obviously buying it, and they're buying it for a reason, they're willing to lock up under less than positive conditions. >> those who got in on the deal? >> yeah. >> that's a different story from

where the sort of you view the stock at today, though. >> i guess. i realize it's a 40% move. at the end of the day, the kind of growth you're talking about also means you're expecting a high delta. frankly, if you had to buy the stock at 17, you probably had to buy at 25 and you're saying they didn't, i get that. >> a lot of the guys that i talked to who got pieces of the deal were looking to sell it right away. >> hedge funds. >> listen, i think it's really important to remember that we've had three days of trading or four days of trading here and it's obviously been very volatile, a one-way trade until today. i think all those analysts who put sells on it are trying to make some noise. listen, you know -- >> when does that black end period end? >> julia said ten days, it's usually three weeks. what i would say -- >> a tough crowd tonight. >> i'm obviously hitching my wagon to steve. >> if you would have had a nonselloff day, i think that

snapchat actually would have been up on the day. i think this is the first time one to be sold, guys bought this off the deal at 17. a lot of people played it last week. if the market was up, this was the first one you take profits from. >> is this the start of a continued push? >> i think the fundamental negative story was out there prior to them going ipo, while they were going ipo. the stock rallied aggressively. there is a supply scarcity of the name. i do think -- >> institutions need to buy. >> who are the negative reports out there? are these any analysts anybody knows? i'm not saying that has to define the trajectory of the stock, but you get to a place here -- i'm not saying i have to buy tomorrow, but a limited capacity to -- >> when you look at the fundamentals of the company, they don't make money, not even close. >> clearly the market bought this company. clearly the market has paid up for it. the s1 meant nothing. a lot of those reports mean nothing. i'm not telling you the stock is

going to the moon. but to comment that 18 or 17 guys who are out of publishing the stock right now because they're part of the syndicate haven't been able to chime in and give it an endorsement, obviously there are people who want to own this stock, it's crazy to say there isn't. we just have a lack of people to publish on, which in ten days they'll have an opportunity. >> listen, i think you do have to remember this is a company that a year ago didn't have any sales, okay? they spent $500 million and got $400 million in sales. they chose not to actually have a revenue model. >> it's slowing already. >> listen, i'm not defending it. steve is talking about scarcity value as far as the float, as far as the shares. i'm telling you there's a scarcity value about social mobile properties like this. >> that's exactly right. i mean, this is the point. i mean, nbc universal has made an investment in a company that they've already had great success with is a media partner. i'm not sure we know what the

intrinsic value of the company is. i'm not long this stock. it's not the kind of stock i buy because i think the valuation doesn't make sense. >> i do believe you get the market cooperating. i believe this rally is back and trades above $30. i still do think it goes above $30. i think that you are only watching a handful of days that it's been trading. you can't really judge the way the stock is going to react. >> i wonder if the negative story since the ipo throws shade over it. >> the shade has been out there. these are weaker hands. i hate that term but i'll use it. i believe buyers come in. >> speak for yourself. one trader is betting more than $1 million that european stocks are about to tank. plus commodities kink dennis gartman has done go he hasn't done in a long time. you're watching "fast money," first in business worldwide.

oh, not so fast, carl. ♪ oh no. schwab, again? index investing for that low? that's three times less than fidelity... ...and four times less than vanguard. what's next, no minimums? ...no minimums. schwab has lowered the cost of investing again. introducing the lowest cost index funds in the industry with no minimums. i bet they're calling about the schwab news. schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. various: (shouting) heigh! ho! ( ♪ ) it's off to work we go! woman: on the gulf coast, new exxonmobil projects are expected to create over 45,000 jobs. and each job created by the energy industry supports two others in the community. altogether, the industry supports over 9 million jobs nationwide. these are jobs that natural gas is helping make happen, all while reducing america's emissions. energy lives here. know you have a dedicated ameadvisor and team.

who understand where you come from know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values ♪ know that together, you can establish a meaningful legacy with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management® team.

one global market grabbing the attention of traders tonight, japan. japan stocks up nearly 5% next year. commodities king dennis gartman says it's time to buy.

he joins us. >> it's good to see almost anybody on the show. >> look who we let on already. why japan now? >> for a number of reasons. it's amazing how many times you're reading something, you're in the shower thinking about something, and all of a sudden -- >> whoa! >> sorry. all of a sudden, some idea gels. and one that caught my eye, my mind over the weekend, was the fact that the demographics in japan are so egregiously bad. it's been one of the reasons i've been -- >> which is nothing new. >> which is nothing new, the demographics are only going to get worse. and it dawned on me, where we're trying to bring jobs home, japan, the only thing they're going to be able to do as the demographics get worse and worse is to robotize everything, computerize everything. in that process, priced to earning multiples in japan, robots don't ask for days off or holidays or sick pay or hospitalization. price earnings multiples are going to expand dramatically in

japan. you've had a huge consolidation and we're about to break out on the upside. i think the risk/reward is small, the reward is great, the risk on the downside is small. i think they can expand to 25 to 27. >> how much of this is an export story, how much of this is domestic? that's been a big part of the change in japan. >> no question, that has been going on now over the course of the past decade. their balance sheets are in much better condition than they were, they had the worst balance sheets ever 15 years ago. they still have one of the worst balance sheets and government circumstances in the world. their debt to gdp ratio is 2.2 to 1, much worse than ours. that doesn't bother me that much. but the balance sheets of the corporations are demonstrably better than they've been in 20 years. >> do you have to have a view on the yen for this to work? >> i think the yen goes to 175

over the course of the next several years. that will do what you need to have done in japan to continue to be an exporter. i think it actually works better with a weak yen, not a strong yen. >> dennis, good to see you. >> good to be seen. thanks for having me on. >> i think eps expansion in japan is probably most pronounced of all the developed markets, probably a little cheap are than dennis said. i totally agree with the trade. 175, that actually scares me. i think in the short run the top of the yen is probably around 118. you see the yen appreciating, by the way, that's usually a sign that markets are under risk, that's a risk aversion trade, and you get out of this trade. >> do you sell the currency, to tim's point, and buy the equity. i've been long for my children for a while. >> the dxj. >> yes, the straight etf. if you buy this one, you have to believe that the currency is going to continue to weaken. if you think you have this a play on currency moving higher, to tim's point, you want to -- >> if the currency weakens, the

etf will weaken. >> it's been an inverse relationship, though. people would sell the currency and buy the etf at ewj as far as i can see from the chart. >> japan has done better when the currency has been weaker. you can make an argument that owning the ewj, which has full currency exposure, still does quite well. if the currency gets trashed, this is not going to do anything. europe has been on a tear this year. uncertainty surrounding the french election has one trader betting against it. >> so the fez, the etf. >> it tracks the euro stocks. this is one that's kind of interesting, one trade made most of the options action today. there was a buyer of 13,000 of the may 33-put to pay 90 cents for those, those break down to

32.10. one thing we can know, going back to june's brexit vote and back to the november election here, is that markets don't always act the way we expect them to a few days after that knee engine-jerk reaction. i suspect it's targeting the french elections here. i just want to look at this chart. this is a two-year here. when you think about this, i know carter likes to write these smiley faces. this is a pretty good looking head and shoulders bottom here. this looks like the sort of thing where maybe it's kind of short term protection. but when you look at it this way, it's obviously banging up at a little bit of a resistance level. at the end of the day, the euro stocks only up 3%, our markets run two times that. if we do have some sort of scenario where we see it calming into the election, you may see european data continue to get better. you may see people move out of the u.s. back into europe, that many people think is a few years behind us as far as global

reflation sort of trade. this could be protection. you never know when you're looking at unusual activity. it got me looking at it. april 23rd will be on a lot of traders' calendars. >> for more options action, check out the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. all the way around, a conversation that i hear, you know, picking up steam, that europe is a great place to be now, versus the u.s. >> acb meets on thursday. if in fact they make any noise about something close to tapering, you want to buy it, because the euro will strengthen. that's a good tailwind. up next, tim is cleaning house on this consumer name and thinks it's time to sell. find out what it is when we come back. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders?

i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.

companies across the state are york sgrowing the economy,otion. with the help of the lowest taxes in decades, a talented workforce, and world-class innovations. like in plattsburgh, where the most advanced transportation is already en route. and in corning, where the future is materializing. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today at esd.ny.gov ...you realize the smartest investing idea, isn't just what you invest in, but who you invest with. ♪

but who you invest with. duexperience our mostand perefined models ever.t, including the ls, lx and es. experience amazing. all righty, let's go around the horn, final trade time. tim? >> it's about what's expensive. staples, clorox especially, get out of this trade. >> steve grasso. >> nxpi, leaves 6% to the upside, the deal gets done. >> starbucks prints a disappointing comp in april.

>> look at guy. he's like an eagle. >> thank you. >> salesforce.com. >> i'm scott walker. catch "fast money" again 5:00 p.m. eastern tomorrow. halftime of course tomorrow at noon. my mission is simple, to make you money. the i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. my job is not to just entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me or tweet me at jim