good morning. china posts its first trade deficit in more than three years. and the uk finance minister set to deliver the first full budget since britain voted to leave the eu. a live report from parliament coming up. plus it's the era of globalization, but is it over? peter thiel thinks so. we'll tell you why. it's wednesday, march 8, 2017. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning.

welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> i'm wilfred frost. good wednesday morning to you from me as well. >> happy international weaponom day. u.s. equity futures after another minor selloff, first back-to-back declines since january. we are flat to mixed. seeking a catalyst. stocks are taking a pause globally here waiting for the next signal either out of washington, federal reserve next week. s&p 500 futures down two. dow up 1.24. nasdaq futures down less than one point. we are seeing the yields tick higher. not massive moves in the bond market, but certainly that ticking of higher yields into the fed meeting, where the fed is expected to raise interest rates next week. we'll see what the jobs report shows on friday. 2.53 is the yield on the ten-year. >> ticking higher.

kept the dollar supported but also only ticking higher because moves in yields have not been luge. china posted a trade deficit of 60 billion yuan, the first in dollar terms since 2014. exports rose 4.2% in february, there were distorted eseasonal effects. in there. there is a clear tren of growth picking up. but that change from -- to deficit from surplus is a change. japan's q4 gdp was raised higher to 1.2% from a preliminary reading of 1%. backwards looking, so not a huge piece of news for japan. trade debt, asia slipping a bit. it was playing catch-up earlier

with the european an international markets. slipping like the rest of the world is this morning. let's look at europe, german industrial output grew. this morning europe is positive. germany up a third of a percent. france and the ftse 100 pretty much flat. yesterday europe was down. last week europe outperformed u.s. gains. to commodity prices. u.s. crude stocks rose more than five times forecast last week. industry group api reporting gasoline inventories fell more than expected. this morning we will get the official data from the u.s. energy department. let's show you what's happening with oil prices. they've been a bit higher lately. down this morning. three quarters of a percent on wti.

brent is down more than a half percent. 55.62. nat gas popping 2.5%. oil, there's the oil price. let's move on to currencies now. dollar has been higher lately, not material moves, but sort of chasing yields higher in the u.s. dollar strength against the yen, we crossed that 114 level again. dollar strength against the euro, 1.0552, and against the pound, buttalysts from the uk. >> the budget coming up, house of lords vote. we'll come to that later with steve sedgwick. coming back to what the euro has been doing, kit juckes has summed up things nicely with the euro weakness. he says summoning up a strong enough conviction that le pen can't win to buy the euro with gusto before the election is out of the way. afterwards is a different story.

his point being there could be a big bounce once we get through the political turmoil in europe, but at the moment it's hard to have conviction to buy it up. 1.05 fairly low for the you're r euro. f . >> mario draghi out with a decision tomorrow. it's all about political risks. you wonder what would take the euro out of the range. we have not seen parity in more than two decades now. >> despite that upcoming election, and the dutch election is very, very soon. it's this time next week, march 15th. then the french election. it's hard to see the euro rally. in economic terms i believe the euro -- this coming from that side of the atlantic, the euro parity seems impossible to reach. but we're 5%, 6% away. >> the other risk i would

mention is i talked to commerce secretary wilbur ross yesterday, i said we got a trade number, showing imports surging thanks to the u.s. buying iphones from china and other imports which is what the administration is trying to do the opposite of. increase exports, they need to get rid of that trade deficit and a weaker u.s. dollar. i asked him if that was standing in the way, he had a savvy political answer that it's not that the dollar is too strong, it's that other currencies are probably weaker than they should be. >> which is a clever answer. look at china. we got a trade deficit out of china. it's not a trade deficit with the u.s., it's a net figure for all of china. but clearly times change. they are an emerging market. it's natural, as we discuss in

detail, that an emerging market to the biggest economy in the world will have a deficit from the u.s. perspective at this page. china has shown net with all the countries it trays with. it's forcing the hand is what they're trying to do, which is a worry for the net effects of global growth. >> what is not clear is the impact on the markets of trade polls from this administration. you hear hand wringing about it from mainstream economists, strategists, big investors, but hasn't shown up in the stocks. the question is -- look at the dow. the dow is an internationally expo exposed, it's the blue chip index, it's up more than 15% since the election. do they not think trade policy will change that much or hurt economic growth or it's not as bad for the market as thought. the president is getting advice from some ceos on this topic. investor jeffrey gundlach

predicts the fed is about to enter what he is calling an old school hiking cycle. he expects a series of hikes from the central bank suggesting the fed won't stop until something breaks, such as a u.s. recession. gundlach thinks u.s. economic data supports a move on rates as early as next week. trio of economic reports today. the february adp employment report is out at 8:15 a.m. forecast to rise by 188,000, that would be a good signal for friday's government jobs report. 8:30 a.m., rephravised fourth quarter productivity and labor costs, followed by wholesale trade at 10:00. in the washington agenda, the president plans to meet with a group of business leaders at the white house to discuss tr k infrastructure. daught during the campaign, prt said he

would rebuild airports, bridges and contribute to other public projects. >> that has moved a lot of stocks. >> the president also will meet to discuss healthcare. this after house republicans released their proposed bill that would replace obamacare. paul ryan heralding the legislation yesterday. >> this is the american healthcare act. it's been a long time in coming. this bill, the american healthcare act, it keeps our promise to repeal and replace obamacare. it delivers relief to americans fed up with skyrocketing premiums and fewer choices it moves us away from the broken status quo. >> clearly he's got a job to do selling. he's got an op-ed in the "wall street journal." he's facing op sposition from h party on the right and of course on the left. it boils down to fewer people

will be insured, and the way kevin brady answered that yesterday is that more people will be insured affordably verse the obamacare legislation. on the right they're worried about the tax credits. they see that as another entitlement. >> the point that a lot of proponents of speaker ryan's proposals and the administration's proposals, this will increase the quality of care people get because things will become more manageable moving forward. >> they'll have more choiceses, more market driven. soft ibank will put a stake into arms holding. softbank bought arm, the uk's most valuable tech company for 32 billion last year. the financial times reports it will place 25% of the company into that fund. the move comes as abu dhabi is near a deal to commit $15 billion to the softbank fund.

>> the only thing against it is that it is headquartered in cambridge. >> oh. you don't approve of that? >> not really. they move to oxford, fantastic. a report commissioned by the u.s. government alleges caterpillar used tax and accounting fraud to prop up its stock price. the report determined that the company used complex measures to return billions of dollars to the u.s. without paying taxes. authorities raided three cat offices last week. caterpillar's new ceo commented on the matter yesterday. >> we were surprised by the actions of last week because, in fact, we have been cooperating with authorities. and we are cooperating. we look forward to a resolution of these matters. we've caterpillar. we've been in business for almost 100 years. we're an honorable company, we live by a code of conduct, core

values if something appears to violate that code, we take appropriate actions. >> the times says no charges have been filed and it's unclear if the government will act against the company. travis kalanick saying he is searching for a coo to help him run the car company. this amid mounting criticism of the company following revelations about its culture and business tactics. uber has hired a search firm and that the company's board would prefer a woman executive for the job. his dream candidates include tom staggs, not a woman, and cbs executive helen faulk. >> they have a lot of problems to deal with. this can't come soon enough. still to come, philip hammond is set to deliver the uk's first full budget since britain voted to leave the eu. >> later this morning -- we were there, remember? >> i do. >> don't miss jes staley, that's

on "squawk box" at 8:40 a.m. stay tuned, "worldwide exchange" will be right back.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." if you're just waking up, yesterday we saw all three indices decline, about a quarter to a third of a percent. but it was a broad decline, nine out of the 11 sectors were in the red. just sort of taking profits, treading water after a rally

yesterday. the market searching for impetus as to which direction to move more meaningfully which it is doing again this morning. flat on the premarket boards. slightly higher, up 10 points on the dow. let's look at the currency market. the dollar has been edging higher as the ten-year treasury note pushed past 2.5%. lacking real impetus at the moment. a bit more dollar strength once again. most notably against the british pound by a third of a percent. let's get to london for a reason, an explanation for why the pound is soft. t steve sedgwick has a preview. >> the uk is doing well considering where everyone thought it would be post-brexit that you and sara were over here for last summer. the office of budget responsibility, which is an independent body, which the

government uses the figure to basically say instead of 1.4% growth this year, we're expecting 2% growth. all those fears about brexit have not happened yet. all those concerns about what it would do to the uk economy have not come through yet. the deficit will be lower today. spending will be lower. we still have enormous debts in the country, 1.68 trillion pounds of debt. so the leeway for the government and philip hammond, a man you know well, will be limited today. there will be no big giveaway, though it is said he will be building a war chest because the deficit is lower, he is building a war chest, possibly as much as 27 billion pounds. because when they enact article 50, where we start negotiations to leave the eu, that's when the real fun and games start and when many say the uk economy could slow down and there could be all kinds of issues. what will he say today? a bit of tinkering at the edges, maybe improve the business

rates, local business taxes for small companies. a lot of shenanigans about that one in the uk. improve social care, elderly costs, and bring in technical colleges, t levels, having technical qualifications for 16-year-olds to 18-year-olds. but there's not a lot he can say until we get the article 50, and that's when the fun with the negotiations between europe and the uk starts. that's when we will see the financial ramifications for the uk economy. >> steve, great stuff. lovely to see you. lovely to see the houses of parliament looking glorious behind you. china's calling on north korea to suspend tests of missile and nuclear technology. the chinese foreign minister said in exchange the u.s. and south korea should halt military drills calling it a potential first step towards easing tensions. still to come, we'll ventur

thiel. first, before we go to break, here is the weather from jen carfagno. >> the weather quieting down today. the big front, all the storms are gone. still left with windy conditions. that's what this weather map doesn't show you. behind the front the winds are extremely gusty, over 40 to 50 miles per hour at times today from chicago to new york. get ready for not just a windy day but an air travel delay kind of day because of that wind. nobody cools down behind the front with the warmer temperatures and dry air, fire danger remains critical again today across the heartland. we're warming up in the southwest. look at l.a. going to 82. denver back to the 60s. that's a trend that will continued for the next several days. i'm jen carfagno for the weather channel. "worldwide exchange" is back after this.

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at corning, i test smart glass that goes all over the world. but there's no place like home. there's always something different to do like skiing in the winter, jet skiing in the summer. we can do everything. new york state is filled with bright minds like samantha's. to find the companies and talent of tomorrow, search for our page, jobsinnewyorkstate on linkedin. peter thiel speaking at the cera week energy conference in houston last night. they'l thiel said he thinks the era of globalization is over. >> i think the tide on globalization is going out. going out on all these different dimensions. if you have movement of people, immigration is getting more restrictive, not just in the u.s., but throughout the western world. movement of trade.

i think that's -- i think there's big head wins there, through goods, movement through people, movement through goods. movement through capital. banks will get more regulated. even movement through information where there may be headwin headwinds. i think there are sort of a lot of regulatory challenges that the silicon valley will be facing from western europe an elsewhere in the years ahead. i think the tide on globalization was just going out in a pretty big way. >> thiel says we're in a bull market in politics. >> he cited our jim cramer saying jim always says there's a bull market somewhere. you just have to find it. >> right. the government watchdog group will ask congress today to investigate whether carl icahn should have been subject to

disclosure rules when he asked trump to overhaul a u.s. biofuel program. he made a proposal last month to change a standard require iing refiners -- icahn controls a stake in the refiner that may benefit from the change. by law he may have to disclose his conversations on the subject with the president as lobbying. the house intelligence committee will hold a hearing on russia on march 20th. james comey will brief lawmakers. other invited individuals include john brennan, national intelligence director, james clapper and two cybersecurity experts. the committee chairman says he sees no evidence of improper contacts between the trump campaign and russian officials. dirk nowitzki joining an

exclusive nba club last night. he scored his 30,000th point. mark cuban and his teammates mobbed him during a time-out. dirk is just the sixth person in nba history to reach the 30,000 point mark joining michael jordan, kobe bryant, karl malone, karim abdul-jabbar and wilt chamberlain. >> congratulations. 0,000 points. that's a lot to of points. still to come, the top headlines and a round up of the global markets, plus today's top trending stories, including a day without women, we'll tell you why some people are skipping work, shopping and even school. because i'm a woman,

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good morning. stocks fall from the highs. the dow and s&p 500 seeing their first back-to-back losses since january. our must-reads with the columni columnists. what they're saying about obama's healthcare plan. and a day without a woman, the events that are about to go viral. it's "worldwide exchange," for march 8, 2017. >> good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> i'm wilfred frost. good morning to you from me as well. let's check in on the global

market action. yesterday we saw declines for all three indices, slight declines, from a quarter to a third of a percent. it was broad the decline. 9 out of the 11 s&p 500 sesectoe negative. tech was the best performer, that was fractionally positive. this morning, essentially flat in the premarket. the dow called higher by 3 points. s&p lower than a point less. we've seen profit taking in asia. we did see some chinese trade figures out overnight. the takeaway for the rest of the world is that trade is soaring, the breakdown of trade was big news, they saw a deficit as opposed to a surplus that highlights pressures they're seeing domestically. the broad news for the u.s. is that trade is roaring across asia. if we look at european markets,

a bit of profit taking at the start of the week. last week europe outperformed the ufrs ral.s. rally. today europe positive across the board. france and the ftse 100 higher. >> for china, there was a warning that the data could be distorted because of the lunar kn new year holiday, but a spike in imports is something they've been trying to engineer. the broader markets, oil is declining this morning after gaining yesterday. it's down by a half percent. wti crude sitting below 53 theres a barrel. brent below 56. ten-year note yield creeps higher. marching higher for the last eight days or so. bones selling off ahead of a big fed meeting next week where investors expect the fed to raise interest rates. we'll see what jobs report on

friday shows. economists looking for a number just below 200,000 jobs in february. the dollar has been stronger, ticking higher along with treasuryyields. euro weak, 1.0558. the pound is the big mover, 1.2159. uk budget day in parliament. >> first full budget since brexit. we had the autumn statement in the october time, which is essentially a semi-budget. mr. hammond wants to switch it around so moving forward the full budget in the autumn. this will be the last full budget this time of year. big, big news for finance geeks in the uk. >> as for gold quickly, it's thin, declining lately on the back of the dollar strength. down 0.3% or a little more than $3 an ounce.

the february adp employment report is out at 8:15 a.m. eastern. private sector payrolls forecast to rise by 188,000. 8:30 a.m., revised fourth quarter productivity and labor costs, followed by wholesale trade at 10:00. in the washington agenda, the president plans to meet with a group of business leaders at the white house to discuss infrastructure. during his campaign, president trump said he would push for a 1 trillion infrastructure program to rebuild airplanes, bridges, and contribute to other public projects. >> the president also will meet to discuss healthcare. this after house republicans released their proposed bill that would replace obamacare. paul ryan heralding the legislation yesterday. >>ed a adidas. >> h & r block reporting a

narrower than expected loss for the third quarter. urban outfitter missing the mark on earnings by a penny. rev flenues in line. results hit by higher markdowns, sluggish holiday sales season. the parent company of anthropology says it plans to increase investments in online sales. shares down 1.5%. geo group extending a public offering of 6 million shares of its stock. they will use the proceeds to repay outstanding amounts and for corporate purposes. tesla naming gary clark the new chief information officer. he was former i.t. chief technology officer at juniper networks. adarko petroleum expecting a 25% rise in oil sales volumes this year. the company is boosting its capital budget to focus on higher margin oil production. shares slipping 2% this morning.

the buzz surrounding a day without a woman is the strike quickly spreading. organizers behind the boycott aim to highlight the vital role women play in the economic and domestic economy by skipping work, avoiding shopping and wearing red in solidarity. this coming two months after the record breaking women's march that drew massive crowds around the world. several school districts across the country are even closing today. the center for american progress projecting that if all paid women were to take off work today it would cost the u.s. almost 21 billion in gdp. women run the world. the question is how organized is it? the women's march is supporting this we do have that sort of new energy after the leak shun within that. they're trying to make a statement. good thing i didn't skip work today. >> that's always a great thing. women don't run the world, they run it as much as men do they

rob ply spend more. a probably spend more. as far as the pay gap, that's certainly one to watch. the economists putting out a 2016 country by country to show which -- where the progress has been in terms of 100% the best, in terms of equal pay for women. iceland is the closest. norway and sweden are up there. the u.s. is 20th in the world. >> as you rightly say when you're not here i miss you terribly, though i think two men would be a great job, as would two women. doesn't have to be like this. >> see if you like that. >> i'm sure i would. let's talk about mark zuckerberg. he's heading back to harvard. the facebook founder and harvard dropout will be the featured

speaker at harvard's commencement. >> they know we didn't actually graduate, right? >> that is the best part. they actually give you a degree. you don't have to go to class? >> no, no. you just put that degree on your resume t looks great. >> i would love to get to that stage, so successful people want you to speak and give you an honorary degree. >> for two college dropouts. tinder is testing a version of its app called tinder select. it's reserved for some of the app's most influential users. it's not a separate app, it's a section of existing tinder app. you would be perfect. >> i'm not on tinder. no invite. >> someone inside him now. nike is developing a high

performance hijab for muslim women athletes. the new product is the result of an ongoing cultural shift that has seen more women than ever embracing sport. the product will be available in stores from next spring. when we come back, the must read stories, plus later this morning don't miss wilfred's exclusive interview with barclay's ceojes staley. that's at 8:40 a.m. eastern time.

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j welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's give you a market update. we are looking at fractional gains in the premarket. essentially we are flat it comes off slight declines yesterday. both monday and tuesday saw some profit taking on wall street. profit taking that wasn't too severe. yesterday down about a quarter to a third of a percent. 9 out of the 11 sectors were down. the picture aross europe hcross been similar this morning and for the week as a whole. we've seen a bit of profit taking monday and tuesday, today, slightly positive. france and the uk fractionally. germany up 0.4%. currencies, quick look there. the dollar is going higher. but only edging higher. the ten-year pushing above 2.5%. it's not breaking out, thus the dollar pushing higher but not

breaking out. slight gains against the yaur ro a euro and yen. we are awaiting the budget from chancellor philip hammond around lunch time. yesterday energy was down 1.9%. wti 52.7. geopolitical news to tell you about. oleg deripaska telling cnbc that president trump and vladimir putin won't live happily ever after calling it a fairytale. he says he thinks it is unrealistic for trump and his administration to soothe relations with russia. >> we all belief in fairytales, but there's the reality. trump and his administration needs to prove they're capable and they will be capable to change economic reality in u.s.,

and if you judge based on facts, you know, the u.s. and russia economic ties are very small. almost, you know, not existent in terms of real numbers. yes, there is a great opportunity for u.s. and russia to build a proper partnership to fight terrorism, global warming, n not -- but economically the u.s. will focus on their own issue, and in two, three years they will be able to come and base on achievement and change previous commitment towards sank shups. >> deripaska described himself as a reasonable optimist for trump's presidency.

let's move on to our must read stories. my pick is in the "final timenc times." i've gone heavy on articles discussing the deficitdeficits. this one says the u.s. has trade deficits with 101 anything thats. this is not a bilateral problem as the trump administration insists, it's a multilateral one. this profusion of deficit reflects a far deeper problem, the u.s. savings deficit. in the third quarter of 2016, the net savings rate was less than 3% of the national income, less than half of the 6.3 percent average that prevailed over the final three decades of the 20th century. very similar problem to what the uk has, we're spending too much money, consuming too much, and we import more goods.

that's coming up as a trade deficit with countries like mexico and china. >> and roach's history is that he was the former head of morgan stanley asia, he knows a lot about the chinese, japanese economy. has been a strong voice for those economies. >> on the flip side, one problem is that china has savings rate are too high, because consumers are not having enough children, they're saving money and not shifting to being a consumer-led economy. >> the administration is focussed on trade deficits. my pick is in the "wall street journal." everybody's digesting what is called obamacare 2.0. it's a nuanced take in describing some republican plans, positives and negatives. here's one piece. instead of requiring grown-ups to shoulder their own health risks, it forced certain

customers to buy overpriced policies so other customers could receive underpriced ones. the gop says it will retain a questionment th me part that requires insurers to cover pre-existing conditions. it's worth a read as we try to figure out some key components, and which ones will be political viable. >> holman jenkins a fan of the show that follows us. becky quick joins us from new york. >> sorry, lemon in my eye. hot water issue. >> actually i thought my tease was hilarious. you didn't make me cry. it was the lemon. big show coming up for you today. david tepper will be joining us from appalossa management. the billionaire hedge fund investor is well known and has

made some big calls on "squawk box," talking about the taper tepper, the taper rally. we'll see where he thinks markets are heading today. since his fund started back in 1993, he has annualized returns of 25%. he knows what he's talking about and has been right for a very long period of time. you do not want to miss this. this starts at 7:30 eastern time. you know on friday we have the big jobs report. today we will get two insights into what you might expect for that number. the adp report at 8:15 eastern time. that's a big market that the markets are watching. and we have dan roth, who is the linkedin executive editor. inked in h linkedin has 133 million people in the united states who have a profile on it. we only had them on once before to talk about what they're seeing in the work force. their work force report will be alt 6:50 eastern time.

both will give us insight into friday. plus we have a big guest coming up with wilfred, jes staley, the barclays ceo will join us as well. all of these things are coming up. look forward to seeing you later this morning. . i look f . >> i like forward to joining us. one thing to tell joe. >> he's here, he's in makeup. >> following our conversations on monday -- >> he's screaming ask wilfred what happened to arsenal. >> there were enough goals for him to watch the game. >> 5-1? >> 10-2 in aggregate. like the worst loss ever. 12 goals. probably watch him watching the sport. >> that's almost like a football game. almost. not really. joe is in the background yelling. he's literally yelling from across the studio. >> we look forward to --

>> i thought they only play on weekends. fshlgt someti >> sometimes midweek just to compound my misery. >> thanks. we look forward to it. still to come on "worldwide exchange," the dow and s&p 500 sufing the suffering their first back-to-back losses since january. jeff kleintop will give us his take coming up. >> and coming up at 10:00, the ceo of adidas with sara. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

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futures this morning just slipping into red territory. they were higher fractionally. still essentially flat following declines on monday and tuesday. joining us is jeff kleintop from charles schwab. good morning to you. thanks for joining us. we've seen some profit taking. we've seen markets that have looked down the last couple of

days. what do you put that down to? >> one, we may be seeing a slowdown in china. got some data this morning, i know it's distorted by the lunar kn new year holiday. but still. we're also looking at a more aggressive pace of fed rate hikes that could weigh on kets, and we have the french elections coming up where stocks begin to slide ahead of an important vote, as they did ahead of brexit and the u.s. vote. so a combination of these factors could be weighing on the markets, giving us a pullback. >> maybe it's the fact they've run so far so fast and it has been a resilient rally, barely taking a breath or pause since the election. what's the next major catalyst? >> that's a great point. one interesting thing is we've seen earnings revisions uncharacteristically rising this year.

usually they're -- analysts start the year optimistic, we go through the fourth quarter earnings season, reported in the first quarter, analysts are forced to lower estimates. that did not happen this time. in europe, estimates are higher. in japan, estimates have moved higher. that's supported stocks as they exhausted this long rally. the next catalyst may be around some things i mentioned. they could be to the down side. so estimates may need to be reassessed in light of what fed rate hikes might mean and the fact that it might take longer to get the hoped for tax reform and some other agenda that the trump administration implemen d ed in the u.s. >> within the u.s. market, what sectors do you still like? . . >> we like the tech sector, financials, and the healthcare sector. we think those areas will lead. >> can you dig into healthcare? especially in light of what we

got out of the republicans in terms of their bill to replace obama care and the tweet yesterday, which sent drugmakers reeling out of the president. a little specific but clearly he wants to target this group, more competition and lower prices for consumers. >> prices may be an issue. prices are not a huge issue for the big pharma companies, it's more about volume. so it's a question of what replaces the aca, and what does that mean in terms of the number of insured in the u.s. the long-term story is one of emerging markets. if you look at china, india, emerging asian countries, the incidence of cancer, heart disease, cholesterol, that is rising sharply. the demand for these products from a very large base could be an offset to some pressures in the u.s. >> we mentioned asia. the picture there has been picking up for the most part in terms of the data. do valuations look attractive?

the valuations don't look very attractive, but they're getting more justified by the rise in earnings. profit margins are actually fairly low in europe and asia, unlike the u.s. where they're well above average. as we start to see economic activity pick up, the sales line will flow through to the bottom line on expanding margins. >> add it all up, we have the current bull market turning 8 years old tomorrow. stocks are up 254% since march 9, 2009. "usa today" looks at how bear markets hurt investors. what is the likelihood there? >> i don't think we'll see a bear market. they're usually associated with recessions. i don't see a high problablleab of recessions here in the u.s.,

or in europe. but a pull back of 5%, 10% may be in the cards. i wouldn't be surprised to see that at all. could be an opportunity for individuals who have been net sellers to come in and buy stocks again. >> final take in terms of what the dollar is doing at the moment. it is strengthening but not meaningfully. is that something that can allow you to get positive on u.s. equities? >> perhaps. when i look at the dollar, our view is that it drifts higher over the course of the year. in general that's not disruptive, even for emerging markets which are the beneficial of global growth. that makes me encouraged more about emerging markets than the u.s. >> jeff, thank you very much for joining us. >> no problem. >> we have about a minute or so left. let's check in on markets quickly. ten-year yield has pushed above 2.5%.

2.54% is where we stand. we've seen the dollar tick higher. the pound is in focus because of the budget due from philip hammond that will come out about 12:00 in the uk. so during "squawk box" hours. >> that brings us to what we're watching today. you have a big british banking ceo to talk about this with. >> jes staley, he will talk p brexit and how that is going. what is his view on the u.s. banking, and he will take on the dodge. he has not settled with the doj like other banks have. and adp at 8:15 a.m. >> and an adidas interview. >> adidas interview. >> i want to know how the ceo

pronounces it. >> i think he says adidas. don't miss david tepper on "squawk box" which is coming up right now. on sea, on land, and in the air. inspecting towers way up high avoiding turbulence in the sky. personalizing treatments with dna and recommending who should play. a dress that thinks, which crops to grow, tax prep to help keep payments low. you can find me on an oil rig, i answer questions small and big. hello, my name is watson.

good morning. china posting its first trade deficit in three years. a closer look at the numbers and market reaction ahead. and jobs week in america. should have been last week, but some weird thing with -- it's this friday. we'll tell you what to expect. we get the adp, private payrolls report this morning. and washington watch, president trump holding meetings on healthcare reform and infrastructure investment. it is wednesday, march 8, 2017. "squawk box" begins right now.

♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and melissa lee never leaves times squarement. >> at this very desk all the time. >> she sits right here. >> are you sitting on my pillow? >> this is your -- >> it helps with my asteroids. i don't know if you will cuddle up to it -- >> melissa may find a way to make her way home tonight. we are 90 minutes away from david tepper who will be joining us. he is the founder of appalossa management. has a great track record. since 1993 when that fund was first founded, has been up 25% annually over