lot of slack. it was a tough entry point. some of the capital allocations didn't seem right at the time. >> ge remains this bellwether for the whole market. >> that's right. especially when it's doing something different from the dough. >> one of many thipgs to keep an eye on. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. >> "fast money" starts now and you are looking at a shot of capitol hill. the vote for health care reform did not happen today. it is the only thing that wall street is watching right now and stocks stumble after it became clear the vote was off. will it happen tomorrow? we go straight to kayla for the details on this story. >> well, melissa, a couple of rooms behind me, there's a large crowd of yob onlookers and reporters forming outside the office for paul ryan. he's been holed up in there for most of the day with members of the house and leadership coming in and out throughout the day to discuss the state of play and exactly what is going on.

there's an expectation that at some point tonight, he'll be meeting with members of the freedom caucus. we know of a couple that have been walking in to meet with the speaker. that's happening ahead of a 7:00 p.m. meeting for the entire republican conference. i asked how long it was expected to go. i was told there will be food. the it's a time to come together and figure out there where there's room to reach consensus. this comes as two wings of the republican party met at the white house with a different reception today. first, the freedom caucus, the more conservative wing having what i was told by an attendee, was a dialogue with the president about exactly what was on the table to negotiate followed by that, the more moderate group, the tuesday group, just meeting at the white house this ooempk to tuck about where they could potentially compromise. reporters got a sense from the chairman of the caucus earlier this afternoon exactly his reception for how that meeting went and where he feels they can go from here. >> there are a number of

negotiations that are going on not only at 1600 pennsylvania avenue, but on capitol hill. as we speak and so, hopefully, we will be able to find some consensus. >> what the freedom caucus wants is to eliminate these essential health benefits, maternity care, mental health services they feel not everybody needs. some members called them welfare services, but the expectation is that that will tip the scale of 24 million people that will lose u insurance by 2026. under this plan. so, we'll see if there's common ground that can be reached before tomorrow when white house says a vote is b possible to happen. but interestingly, some of the members of the freedom caucus say they're worried about this consternation among constituents back home and exactly whether they can rectify some of these issues before going back home this weekend or in the space of a day. ted yoho said in the last 48 hours, he's gotten 1800 phone

calls from angry constituents and just 30 who are in favor, so obviously, the administration wants a win. house leadership wants a win, but there's a sense that it might take more than a day to resolve some of these issues. we'll see. melissa. >> so, in terms of a tick-tock, there is none. >> thing is, it's fluid. i could tell you the tick-tock for tonight, the expectation for tomorrow, but as we saw today, anything is subject to change and if they don't have the vo s votes, this will not be brought to the house floor. simple as that. >> thank you. in washington. and we are taking a look there on the screen. that's a live shot of speaker ryan's office. you see people going in and out, but that is a live shot of what's going on capitol hill right now. so, the self-proclaimed king of the deal couldn't make a deal in time to get the vote through tonight. the market turning negative, so will we see heavier selling tomorrow? if we go another day with no

deal in sight. grasso, what do you think? >> i think the market is handling this mir akously well considering everything we thought was going to happen today. i think it's a poor job of communicating from the white house because i thought it was a black and white issue today. this vote. i thought it was going to be yay, nay and if they couldn't put it together, i thought it was a little more crucial. now, you have a little flex bability, where they can roll it into next week or do something softer, but there's no way this is a tail wind for the administration. you have to come back a lot stronger than this. it puts into question a lot of the things that got this market rallying. >> even sean spicer said at his briefing today that it is going to happen. implying the vote was going to happen. that was 1:30, 2:00 in the afternoon and less than two hours later, we hear it's going to be delawed, so in terms of getting jerk eed around.

that's what was going on. >> this is a administration of political neophites. a delayed vote for the market is better than a no vote that that could happened today. which is why to steve's point, i don't think we sawed enough nearly as much we could have or should have. i was encouraged and the vix will tell you, above 13, it's not at the level pete was talking about last night, that 13.5 level. >> the interesting thing was, as soon as we got this delay or the possibility. then we get the news of its delay out there, you look at the volatility index, that popped 4% in the last 90 minutes. >> and it had been down. >> it gives you an idea of how close everybody's watching this. you see the s&p, about 100 points, start iing to sell off. i don't know tomorrow if it's necessarily, people just waiting and everybody's waiting hands in their pocket, steve knows how that works on the trading

floors. guys put their hands in their pockets. >> have time though, which pockets won't fly anymore. we're not going to wait anymore. it's about the market's reactions. we're talking neophytes, maybe, maybe not. this gets down to politics. this isn't really a trump issue. this is the constituents and guys within the ranks and if anybody can bring these people together, what i heard today, there's constructive talk there's real dialogue going on that wouldn't have in the last administration. however, t friday. think about what markets could have done into the close based upon the technical move we had on tuesday, i look at oil, high yield and higher sort of lower grade credit. some of the currencies and i look at small caps and i say wow, we are right on the engineer. why did you need to be doing all that much into this weekend. >> small caps is interest iing, too, because in some ways, you saw the sharpest reaction in small caps. that may be an indication of

where the markets see tax reform. >> that's everything. i mean, really, the small business is the american fiber. that is everything from health care burden and on some small businesses has killed these businesses. it's deregulation. the it's made in america. trade protection israism, small bear the brunt of this policy. >> we saw health care turn lower, some of the stocks you thought should move in opposite, right, the thing is going to get passed, they should move lower. we had community health hold on to gains and you would think these would be u the kinds of stocks that would move in opposite directions. >> you have to look at the way they move nd the last couple of days and a lot of times, it's the opposite where they did their proloaded move. a lot of time, they want to bet against something getting done. they want to hope that nothing gets done. but i will tell you, the xlv, etf for health care, up 180% from when they passed the affordable health care act.

everyone said it was going to kill the health care industry. and they got a lot of medicaid. but now, they're bowing out. they say they can't make that much money. margins are getting squeezed, so if it doesn't get passeded, they're ripping higher, but the truth is, no matter how you slice it, health care will move higher regardless of whether this plan gets passed and it will. >> i think we see that. >> larry kudlow. >> come on, clap. >> we've got breaking news. got to get to john harwood in d.c. >> i want to pass on two new pieces of information. just got a text from a house freedom caucus source who i had asked whether or not there was a chance this bill will pass tomorrow. you know, there's been talk about a vote in the morning. and the source responded nope, no way. so, again, no way in the view of the freedom caucus source will this pass tomorrow. they have been the chief obstacle to the passage of the bill in the house.

secondly, we've just gotten a new letter from the congressional budget office estimating the effects of the revised bill. not the version that members are talking about now, but according to the revisions that were released a couple of days ago. they said first of all, no change in their estimates of coverage, 24 million fewer americans would have coverage by 2026 than under current law. that reduction is the same. but there is less deficit reduction in this new version of the bill according to these only about 150 billion over ten years. they previousliest ma llies lll house changed the bill up to today. don't get any more people covered and have less deficit reduction in terms of the changes that they're contemplating now, we don't know the effects of that, so the cbo can't estimate. >> thank you for the update. john harwood in washington with

this fast developing story here. >> real quick, one thing john touched on, he said no way they're going to have anything done in the morning. in some ways, that's good. if it's not going to get done early in the morning, i hope they're trans parent enough u to push this out until next week. >> they want to push it -- >> pass the senate, too, so it's not only just the house. they got to make sure it's strong. >> that's something, tomorrow's goeing to be a tough day. and again, i'm going into that weekend, i'm going to make sure that i am protected especially in some of these -- >> but tim -- the market didn't sell off. shocked that the market really took it extremely well. it stayed above its 50-day moving average. the market seems to have stability. i would have thought they would have been laying in. >> do you think there's a no vote and market stays above 50? >> i think it should have traded above the 50 today. >> why? we don't have a decision. >> we got encouraging snippets

from people and who really knows? i don't know. but again, i think the market trades lower. why be up? >> let's bring in our "fast money" friend, larry kudlow. >> again. >> he's been dying to jump into this conversation. >> pleasure to be on the show. great to see old friends. this is a narrow slice of the issue, but with respect to hospitals, you were talking about hospitals, actually, the house bill helps hospitals with the emergency room patient. the free ride issue. it's called disproportionate share. they're going to get some more money. the stick up, the hold up in this whole thing, this is why they're scram babling for votes and you're right. it may take a couple more days, i don't care. >> push it out. >> the insurance companies still have a mandate. and i didn't really know this and it annoys me to no end. okay, this thing is called the

essential benefit package. this should never have been in this bill in the first place. so -- >> these are the essential services. that are covered. >> when they say we're killing the mandate, that's true. they're killing the overall mandate. that is to say we don't have to buy it and we won't be penalized. but if you do buy it, this essential benefits has everything that was always in the original obamacare bill. that is nuts. that takes away your freedom of choice. you are not going to get the ma len yals to buy into that package and that will, i actually now understand cbo's point of view. that will prevent premium frs falling as much as they should. >> so, backtrack a little. these are the services that are guaranteed. ambulance. maternity leave. you know, things like that. cancer care. theoretically, if you strip that out, premium for younger, healthier people, would go down. >> yes.

>> older, sicker would go up, but you'd have that fluctuation. >> you should get rid of this essential benefits, just get rid of it. second point, the risk pool for the ill and the sick and the so-called preconditions. this is a good thing. they've put about $15 billion in. for the states. to make their own risk pool plans. and they're giving the insurance, some of the money will go to the insurance companies. once you take out the ill. from the private exchanges, all right, don't get me wrong. we're a generous country. i would pay for their insurance. i would straight up, make it, federal government the federal government, just pay for it. but once you remove that, then you have u a much different insurance pool. the healthy will stand alone and if they don't have to buy a one sides fits all package, premiums will crash. the demand will go way up. more people will be covered. and eventually, deductibles will come down, too. that's the dynamic.

the freedom caucus, my buddy os tn conservative side, they want to get rid of this. they are right. i just learned this in the last 24 hours. >> what do you think is going on behind the scenes? what's your guess as to, is there really such a divide? there's no way you would get the votes to pass this thing tomorrow. no way. because we're going to be behind closed doors and say there's tho way so we can extract more. >> they need the latest count is they need 250 votes. i want to vote the reagan rule. if you get 70%, take it. reagan was a deal maker. get 70%, take it. the republican party has to get by with itself. it's very important fact here. trump has rolled up his sleeves, he does own this now. and he is calling individual members of the freedom caucus

and others. and he's had the meetings and been up on the hill. i think that's going to work out well. he can be very persuasive. i wouldn't underestimate him. >> larry, but this was something off the election, a person like you was extremely happy with the result of the election and then when you look at what's happening now, this is not democrats going against republicans. this is republican end fighting and the way it portrays to the rest of america is a sign of weakness. >> the end will be the end. this is about legislative sausage making. it's a very ugly process. i do think, however, this approach from the house has been badly sold and marked. and you look at the numbers. voters by a wide margin want to get rid of obamacare, but by an equally large margin, they don't like what they know about this health care act from mr. ryan. so they've got to clear that up.

i never had any doubt there's going to be issues. this is going to go a while. this the uncertainty factor is going to go up. if they get something passed in the house, it goes to the senate. the senate will work on this. it can't be filibustered, all right? but they need 51 votes. or 50 to break the tie with mr. pence. that's going to take a while. after that, it goes into a conferen conference, a house senate conference. so, i'm thinking you know, this thing could stretch into play and to june. so, people should understand that. in issues of market, has the market impact, i was just doing rough numbers. q4 profits fell in gdp accounts, however, in this bill is a lot of tax cuts. very important. one is capital gains tax. if you take the 3.8% out, that brings it back down to 20%. just using profits and i'm using a discount rate from the baa corporate bound. it's about 450 or 460 now.

putting it up to 5%. when i run that exercise off of $2 trillion, you know what, the market would rise by 5 or 6%. just based on the discounted present value of future earnings. because of this reduction in the capital gains tax, so, i don't think that's in the market. i think that's part of the uncertainty. everybody's looking down the road to business tax cuts. they should, but right here, you've got thousand dow points at stake. just doing back of the envelope stuff. >> we love it. always welcome back. "fast money" friend. tv royalty. >> stud. man brings 17 pages of notes for the show, prepared. only used one paragraph. >> he does his homework. >> i know. that's my point. >> notice how quiet we got? talking about getting attention to this group. >> smart guy. >> very nice. you're all great. and you're coming on my radio show. >> anytime. >> again and again and again. >> all right. trade this year at this point.

the stretch is out. like larry said. the time frame is much longer than we think. it's not a binary vote. >> if it stretches out, the president says it's going to stretch out, but i can still get through my regulation reform. but i don't think he's going to do that. if he were to say this is going to last longer than i thought, it was more complicated than i thought it would be, but in the meantime, we're going to push through tax regulation, push through bringing back repate rating dollars, ratcheting back reforms, then the market could rally, so it could be a positive thing. >> still ahead, the most important story to the markets now. the health care vote has been delayed. possibly to next week. we'll have continuing coverage from washington when we return.

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welcome back. ford guiding lower than estimates, the stock taking a hit, but the struggles could signal the worst is yet to come. >> especially the worst could be yet to come when you look at what might be happening when you look at residual values and the impact on new car pricing an profitability. here the guidance from ford when

it comes to the first quarter. 30 to 35 cents a share. the reason this is important is because the street was expecting 45 cents a share. they're saying they're going to be 20% below. the reason, b highers, lower fleet volume and favor bable rate. let's talk about the higher cost. some is due to what you would expect this year. commodity, warranties, that's going to be driving things up a bit. the other issue for ford is that it is making massive investments in future technologies. especially out in the silicon valley. autonomous drive technology, electric vehicle technology and those investments, now, they're w weighing on ford a bit. now for the other side of the business. this got a lot of questions today especially from those saying what are you seeing in showrooms in terms of pricing. ford says it expects the overall sales this year to be close to the 17.5 million mark. close to a record high and there's still strong demand for

trucks and suvs. yet, there's the issue we've seen this week as you look at share of ford, the issue of used car residual values coming down. a slew of leased vehicles coming into the market. all of that putting pressure on new car pricing and just how much pressure can ford with stand before it starts to feel the pinch? for now, they're not seeing them at the record levels we saw in 2007, eight, but it is creeping higher and that got a lot of analysts asking for it today. just how much more do we expect it to move in terms of those residual values falling and cutting into new car profit bability. >> there are a lot of zero percent financing for however many years offers out there. the psychological difference between going from zero percent to whatever it's going b to be, that can scare people off to begin with. >> absolutely and melissa, it's all about managing that monthly payment. the new car average monthly

payment is now over $500. and for year, for years, ford and the others were saying keep it under 500. it's sort of a psychological level. it's not now. it's over $500 now. not by a lot, but that's the whole problem. >> phil, thank you. trade on autos. >> i think i'm long gm, not ford. member, selling was a big thing. ford last year commodities, they don't have that. that's why these numbers are bad. >> still ahead, health care, the vote getting delayed. we'll bring you the latest headlines as they come. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on krbz. first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up. >> just keep buying. >> that's what one top technician says you should no matter how the health care vote goes. plus, the last time guy faced off against tim in "fast money" madness, this happened. but tim's been working on some new moves and he'll seek his revenge when "fast money"

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let's head back to washington, d.c. where kayla is talking to kevin brady. >> thank you so much. we're joined now by the chairman, thank you so much for making time on a busy night. we want to ask you about this new estimate that the deficit would be narrow ed by $150 billion instead of the previous $337 billion estimate largely in line with what you had expected, pu how rell raevant is that?

>>s in house virgersion, we're putting more resources toward americans in the 54 to 64 range. too young to retire, but have high medical costs. wung thing from the last score, see if we can't do more. it will be b a two step process. we're creating the resources, the senate will do the targeting there, so i feel comfortable about that. we move tax reform forward. excuse me, tax relief forward, so that means americans who have taxes on their health insurance over the counter drugs, taxes on small businesses, that relief will occur now, not next year and there's medicaid changes that give states more flexibility. that's how we aprooifed at the number. we thought they would with in the ballpark. >> there's some expectation that any compromise needed to get members of the house freedom caucus on board would drive up the number of uninsured that was hard for some republicans to come to grips with. how do you expect that to play out? >> so, i don't think it will.

what they're asking for is maximum flexibility to the states so they can design plans that are right because manhattan, kansas is different than manhattan, new york and with providers and plans and needs and so, i'm convinced what they're asking for full flexibility will actually create more coverage, people will take plans they perhaps could not afford before, but can because they're tailor ed to them. i don't know that cbo will actually boost those numbers up a lot. but common sense says if it's use bable, affordable and tailored, they can use it. so at the end of the day, i think these changes will help in a big way. >> before that happens, there's a big meeting tonight of the whole republican congress at 7:00 p.m. what's the approach going to be? >> clearly, we don't have the votes yet, but clearly, no one is walking away from the table. not the conservatives, not the moderates, not the president.

none of us are. this is a campaign promise to repeal and replace. we are going to deliver on. so tonight's going to be an assessment of where we're at. what are the remaining factors. that last 5% that it takes to bring us all together. then we'll go from there. but what i heard this afternoon after the meetings had been held in my view are encouraging. >> senator mitch mcconnell said he hopes to have it out of the senate by next week. how ambitious is that and how much senate buy in do you really honestly have with whatever compromise? >> i'm hopeful we can meet that timetable. these are all the senate rules. guardrail rs the senate guardrails. we spent a lot of time working with them. i will say i think senators should do their work. improve the bill. as they see fit. continue to move it forward. and our thought along this whole process has been at every step if we can make it better, let's

make it better. i need for the senate to get the bill and just do to work they've been waiting a long time to do. >> what the probable thety the house then votes tomorrow? >> so, timetable will be determined by a lot of the discussions we're having tonight. our leader, kevin schedules the votes. but we've got more work to do. >> one to ten. one being least likely -- >> i never do one to ten ever. we'll just keep working. here's my thought. this is a huge challenge. we're going to hit bumps in the road. we're going to continue until we deliver on this promise. >> there are a few schools of thought. one being there are too many issues to work out in a day. another being why not send members back to their constituent, get more feedback from them based on what is going on in washington, then come back and vote on monday. >> i think members have been listening very carefully back home and those of us crafting this legislation listening closely here, so because of that, we've made significant

changes in improvements. why not stay at the table, continue to work that direction and actually finish this as soon as we can build consensus. >> a bunch of white house folks are here tonight, what help do you still need from them. what can they do with this part of the process? >> they're making a very powerful case that this is president trump's bill. that he wants repeal and replace, that this is a campaign promise, we are all going to deliver on. and that he's going to continue to bring people to the table. i think that's exactly the right role for the white house. >> chairman, appreciate your time. melissa, back to you. >> thank you so much for that. i think couple of things important out of this interview, one is that congressman brady paks a point that nobody has walked away yet. they're still at it. willing to stay late tonight and work this out or try and work this out. >> you got that sense from everyone today. that both sides, however far apart they are within the republican party, are actually willing to stay together and

let's face it, they continued to raise the stakes so much higher. imagine if this doesn't pass and the impact this has and we thought we had problems in washington before. when you have a majority, you can't get on the same page. it's very difficult. >> it would be like mutual destruction, right? talking b about trump and the freedom caucus. >> i can't believe there's this much in fikting. i know there's going to be disagreements amongst the republican party. they've had eight years, sin201 when the affordable health care act was crammed down to prepare for this. i can't believe there is this much division amongst the republicans and to me, i'm worried if it's taking this long for the house, what does that mean for the senate? that makes me nervous. >> he was talk iing about this whole thing over time pushing out to may. >> does trump really reside over a republican party? is he really a republican himself? >> no, more moderate. but look at everyone that he has

put, has nominated is as far right as you can get. so, he's done everything he can to not be a republican in name only. >> after the health care vote was delayed, we have to ask is the trump rally still in tact. rich ross says a roally has mor room to run. >> last two day, it's been survive in advance. it's not just in tact, but it's ready to get on its horse and rip higher here. here's the s&p 500. you can see what we've done since the election. we capture that 50-day moving average with authority right after election day and boom. very nice rally here. 12% to the top. you're still up 10%. you're sitting at the 50-day. you've had more than a 2% pullback. counter trend flag, this is where it all begins. now, we zoom in. so people are questioning the trade because of interest rates. look at this range here in. ten year yields, was the trade

here or here or here. no. the answer is no, no, and no. so, you're sitting on that 100-day moving average. you've come up 20 days. with a more dubbish echo mc. crude continues to collapse. but you're standing firm here and those yields are going to get going. now, we look at the small caps, another reason why people are down on this market here. yes, you've had a 5% pullback off the top. little bit more than twice what the s&p down, but you're still in this well defined trading range. sitting on the 100-day just like your yields here. what's driving this? the dollar progrowth policies so that weaker dollar here calling that into question. but you're sitting right on the 150-day moving average here. let's not quget ahead of ourselves, it's not a top until you get a breakdown below the key moving average. the dollar index holds. it gets going. russell gets going. stocks get back into rally mode.

>> i think we should invite him over. >> powerful. >> come on. >> swagger. >> yeah, that is a swagger. >> nice. >> great looking tie with that shirt. popping. >> yeah. >> rich, what do you do if the small caps break the 100? since july of 2015, that's powerful and it means a major change. >> all of those charts we've brought here today, you're sitting on the pris miss here of real breakdowns. risk something or forever sit with your dreams. >> yeah. >> that's it. you're sitting on support. if you want to make money, you've got to risk something when you're sitting on support. the set up is there. it's time for politics to unlock the price action. >> support breaks. what type of percentage move to the downside would you anticipate based on the charts if you just put throughout?

>> 2.5% off the top. a 5% correction is still within boundaries here. as traders, we've had a spotty track record trying to trade politics. look at brexit, look at trump and what happened, we quickly regained the upside. ultimately, a strong tend in tact. look at europe. at the emerging markets all in a strong position, so the rest of the world is telling you that risk an site is sound and this market as i said to answer your question, maybe 2% down from here on a break, but it's not the end of a trump trade ooempb on a break below those levels. >> how much work when we're talking about this, i say the 200 days really in my focus where if it really breaks down, that's the level that we're looking at, around 2200. basically in the s&p. how much work do you do and look at rate, not rates, but the ten-year and when you look over the rotation, where we've had on and off again, the correlation between money comeing out of

bounds going into equities, how much attention do you put or lean on when you look at the rotation trade? because it's obviously not about valuation and it's not about, not totally about politics to your point. >> you make a great point, but i don't think you need this great rotation for stocks to continue to move higher. they've done just fine. we've seen inin flows into both stocks and bonds, so there's room for them, too, to work in harmony. that's not the call. i think interest rates move higher. i think we get through the bill 260 resistance. i think we get through there, that will give rise to the financials. >> rich, thank you. good to see you. pete? >> today, i was fairly quiet, but did grab some calls in there. there was a lot of activity out there. there was activity across the board. the one thing i could say to you is i know steef's on the floor every day, the options world is no longer on the floor. it's in the computer world. because of that, i'll tell you what, our volumes are

outstanding over the last week or so. i heard bob pisani talk about low volumes. we're not see iing it in the options world. we've been averaging about 20 million a day. financials were active just the other day, now, they're coming after some of material space as well as energy name, so i jumped on kmi yesterday. >> they include europe and emerging markets, which had youds reversals. being play iing the downsided rates, breaking through this 230 range, playing the downside on small caps an high yield is how i stay in these trades. >> if you look at the eu, the headline, said to okay the dow dupont deal. that to me means it's more likely that -- deal is going to pass as well. so i've been long on santo, but i bought back my valiant. that's my trade, the riskiest trade that i hold. >> at what price. >> around 1060. >> 1060. all right. mark the tape. >> mark it.

>> looking at me? >> 160 transports. looks like it wants to hold. i'm encouraged that the russell still holds 130. those are interesting things for me and i don't think the bio tech trade to the upside is finished yet. >>'s look at the move of the day. xlf up nearly 1%. most of trading session before taking a leg lower with the rest of the market. so, which bank stocks are worth your money now? find out when our special "fast money" madness continues. dean, tim will get another chance to go up against seven time chance, guy adami. does he have what it takes to beat guy once and for all? we'll let you be the judge on twitter. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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tonight, it is the financial face off between goldman sachs and american express. we are giving tim one more chance to take on the undefeated champ. tim picked goldman sachs. guy's taking american express. guy, you've been on a hot

streak, so you get to go first. 45 seconds. make the case for am ex. >> here's a nice chart. my ribs are sore for fr the beating tim gave me. i hope you folks saw that. and take some pity on me. i love goldman sachs, in my blood, but who's the greatest investor or our lifetime? >> warren buffett. >> thank you, pete. didn't even practice that. >> warren buffett owns goldman sachs to the tune of about 2.5 billion or so. guess what he also owns? american express to the tune of about $12 billion, fifth largest holding. his side kick said he doesn't know where they're going, but i'll tell you. back to the valuation they deserve, which is about 15.5, 16 times forward earn x because that costco mess is in the rear-view mirror. they're going to earn b about $6.50 next year. you're look k at a 99, 100 stock. that will outperform goldman sachs, which is one of my favorites as well.

>> i had to make my case. >> 45 seconds on the clock. >> the fact this guy was selling you on goldman and how is pushing it down -- he sells you on altruia. so, here we are. dynasties, ucla bruins, boston celtic, they have to end at some point and here we are. this is what guy probably didn't tell you time. goldman sachs is a lean, mean athlete. they cut $900 in the second half of last year alone. it's an athlete that's ready to roll. think about the moves over the last five years and you'd think maybe they haven't been the best years, revenues are up 6%. the margin is up u 1200%. think about american express. delynn quincies are up. more card rewards, more pressure on earnings. people are worried about this falling off. you talk about long-term investing. this is the place you want to be. axp's best days behind it.

>> by the way, they've stabilized. they're not up. they're going sideways. >> no more talking. pete's got a question. >> tim, does it, do read into the idea what guy point ed out? i think it's interesting and warranted is the amount that you look and you see a great investor like warren buffett, how much he's got invested into am ex versus a goldman sachs? >> it really doesn't entr my frame of reference. warren buffett has great as he is, what he's doing inside his portfolio is irrelevant to us because he's got waitings in certain sectors. i think ultimately, you're making your call based on the stocks you think have the most earnings, most potential in the next 12 months. what the valuations are. american express is a lot of pressure. >> tim, just to follow up there. when you look at the rms pau, the financial stocks and when you look at visa, mastercard, american express, you see there's a break out for the credit card companies where as the front loaded action we saw u

in the financials, already happened now and now, you're starting to see them roll over. does that concern you? >> again, look at the pressure. if there's pressure on banks, there's pressure on credit card companies. i think about the goldman model. they've done a ton of things in the last five year, we're all betting on a market and economy that's increase iing in that environment, who's going to do better. gold man or axp? >> all right. >> compelling argument. >> both sides, but who will advance to the next round? we are letting you at home decide. head to twitter now, vote on our poll. winner will be announced at the end of the show. go vote right now. now. still ahead up in smoke, it's a surging consumer stock one trader is betting could tank. we'll tell you what it has and what has them so nervous when "fast money" returns. at fidelity, trades are now just $4.95.

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anthank you so much forrade that down home welcome.. show me female vocalist of the year. thank you so much. thank you so much acm's, i appreciate it. show me acm best moments. i could never have wished for, asked for and dreamt of anything more than this. catch your favorite moments from the acm awards and an exclusive encore performance by kelsea ballerini following the show on xfinity x1. the acm awards. live on sunday, april 2nd 8/7 central on cbs. welcome back. one trader is bet iting the runs done. hi, mike. >> earlier today, we saw about four times the average put volume and as you can see, and as tim mentioned t stock hasn't

performed that well lately. but let's look at what's going on. fast forward here and what we can see is that starting last october, the stock had really outperformed the broad market. one of the reasons, that's when british american made its bid. rbc downgraded the stock, citing the fact valuation has got p ahead and a peer group u and the fact another merger unlikely. so what they were doing was buying the may 72.5, 67.5 put spread, 80 cents per 2500 of those and that's basically making a bet it's going to go back and basically fill that gap that it had relative market. >> didn't karen represent altrua in one of the fast money brackets against you, guy? >> so long ago and i'm getting old now. hard for me to remember. i recall -- >> proctor and gamble. >> one stock that has hit -- >> let's be clear about this.

i'm not stuffing anything. >> thatere's a lot of accusatio on twitter flying around right now. >> altria, please. >> doesn't even know. >> i actually like the idea of putting on this put spread. that risk reward, fantastic. >> great stuff. >> if you win, that approves that the system is rigged. >> i'm not rigging it. >> ballot box. >> where can we learn more about these puts and calls? >> no. the full show is friday, tomorrow. 5 c:30 p.m. eastern time. >> up next, can tim dethrone the undefeated champ? "fast money." time to vote. you can still vote. we'll reveal the winner after this break and it's neck to neck, by the way. >> can't stop watching. >> terrific.

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this is the moment you have been waiting for. and it's been a very, very tight race. the whole vote there.

it's a very small win. 52%. and the winner is -- guy adami! shocker. winning streak. ninth win. in a row. >> come on over here. unprecedented. hug it out. we start the final trade. pete. huge call buying in there today was a call spread. may 10 calls, extremely aggressively bought today. keep an eye on this material stock. >> tim. >> johnson & johnson. the chart tells you this thing is pulling back. i think you can stay short johnson & johnson. >> someone just tweeted guy has super delegates. >> squares, mrp a hardware company. up over 20% year to date. take a look. dig underneath that top line and you'll see much, much more green ahead. >> how you feeling, guy? >> my friends in illinois, vote

early and often, baby and they're tooting away right there. shy town. right there. >> hitting the button, good for you. >> american express is good for the old guy, it's good enough for me. >> see back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. the rhetoric, the rhetoric -- it's way too heated. if you didn't know any better, you'd think the fate of the republic was on the line. i'm talking about the