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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  March 23, 2017 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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they're tooting away right there. shy town. right there. >> hitting the button, good for you. >> american express is good for the old guy, it's good enough for me. >> see back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. the rhetoric, the rhetoric -- it's way too heated. if you didn't know any better, you'd think the fate of the republic was on the line. i'm talking about the vote to repeal obamacare on its seventh
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anniversary and replace it with a republican-written program. a vote that ultimately got postponed because it didn't look like the bill could pass. this legislative circus is creating a world where the averages are held in abeyance. either one step away from the gallows or nirvana. dow dipping five points. s&p inching down 0.11%. nasdaq declining 0.07%. that's the definition of flat line, people. first let me set the scene of where we are at this moment and then i'll go into the real risks and rewards so you know what's actually on the line here, not what you heard is on the line. now, we know first of all that something has to be done with the affordable care act as the big insurance companies are prepared to pull out of the exchanges that were supposed to drive prices down because they're losing too much money on the policies. the problem? lots of older people with pre-existing conditions keep enrolling, and there aren't enough younger, healthier people signing up to balance them out.
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if you're young and healthy, it's cheaper to just pay the penalty and then only buy insurance once you find out you're sick, which is not how insurance is supposed to work. remember, my view here comes from neither the democrats nor the republicans but from following the companies involved, and they really don't want anything to do with the exchanges anymore. it's easy to imagine a situation where premiums spike to absurd levels, making insurance a lot more expensive even after taking the pretty generous government subsidies into account. if that happens, then supporting the current system would likely become a political nightmare. keep in mind for when i go over the various scenarios what i just said, that it's going to be a nightmare if you do nothing, okay? because it's crucial for the longer term vision, you need to have -- you steel your vfl through this moment and get your portfolio intact and not panic
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like i expect so many others to do if the vote, whenever it happens, doesn't go their way. so in other words, what i'm trying to avoid here is this. by giving you a game plan. what are your options? first, the house could pass the bill it's got in front of it even as it's despised for very different reasons. imply kwagss? bill passes, boon for trump's presidency. >> trump stock. >> and make investors feel confident that he'll be able to push through his economic agenda like lower corporate taxes, repatriation of overseas. all the things that the market adores. the result? stocks rally and interest rates go higher. best stocks to buy in this scenario, the banks because they've been headed down for some time on sinking interest rates. i'd snap on jpmorgan or cramer fave citigroup. what else is on the shopping list if repeal and replace passes? the industrials.
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this scenario will have more confidence that president trump will be able to pass the pro-growth parts of the agenda. i'd go for mart rn marietta. hughes concrete. play the border wall. hey, how about nucor. we just talked with them, right? perfect for an infrastructure initiative. i'd buy alphabet, apple, amgen, and cisco for repatriation. i'm pick up 3m, united technologies, cummins, dow chemical for worldwide growth. transports should rally. let's pick up fedex because it just reported a good quarter the other day. worst stocks to own in this snar know, utilities and real estate investment trusts along with all the other stocks that are considered bond market equivalent like products goods companies, campbell's, kell okays and the like. then there's the second scenario. suppose the bill fails, which seems a lot more likely given speaker paul ryan just had to postpone the vote. in that case, both stocks and interest rates go down. this is the so-called disaster scenario that so many
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commentators are saying would be the end of trump's clout, not to mention being a major setback for the rest of the agenda and the world for that matter. again, i think the rhetoric here is ridiculous, alarming, and wrong. but in the spirit of all the chicken littles out there screaming the sky is falling, let's go. let's go with it. i'll use an absurdly exaggerated example. back during the horrendous days of the great pre-session when the republic really was in jeopardy, when banks were failing left and right, president bush asked the house to approve the asset relieve program or tarp, the gigantic bank bailout. initial lip the house rejected the bill on september 29th, 2 0 20200 2000. the market had its worst point loss in history, 770 points or 7%. that was worse than the point loss in 9/11. but a few days later the house approved tarp and the market passed back until it ultimately bottomed in march of the following year. to listen to some of the jeremiahs today, you think we
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could have a repeat of the decline after the rejection of tarp. i regard it as lunacy, but you know what? let's game it, right? but if it does happen, i want you to buy the heck out of the market into the teeth of that downturn. why? because these times are different from then. in 2008, the economy was on the verge of collapse. it was entirely possible we would have to nationalize the banking system. at m's not working, checks not being able to be cashed. these days, those, companies are strong and profitable. the financial system, well, it's always going to be difficult but it's about as good as i've ever seen it. stocks are expensive historically, so they can fall. we're slightly overbought. but i think it would be a buying opportunity, and i'm going to give you three reasons why. this is put together in the calm moment, okay, not in the panic mode that i see everybody going about. one is that like tarp, there could be a second vote sharply after that goes the president's way. you would have sold for nothing.
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>> sell, sell, sell. >> distinct possibility because of what i mentioned earlier. remember, obamacare exchanges are indeed unraveling over time. big insurers don't want to write the policies. ultimately doing nothing is too politically risky for the gop both because of these real issues and because they all campaigned on repealing obamacare. in that case you'd feel like a real dope for selling when the first vote fails. two, if the bill does fail, i doubt that marks the end of trump's ascendancy. more likely he'll have congress move on to the rest of the aj agen agenda. three, even if the bill fails and the rest of trump's legislative agenda turns out to the still borne, there will be many companies with stocks that have been hammered beyond recognition where you can buy them at a nice discount. there will be plenty of people who believe that if we get the worst case and stocks and interest rates go down, we'll be headed for a big slow down. you'll probably hear the r word, recession.
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in that case, you'll want the slow down stocks, con ed, dominion, clorox, pepsico, procter & gamble, allergan. those all work. pepsico and allergan, club members of action alerts know i like. you can also buy the hidest growth stocks which don't need a strong economy. we like to buy the ones we know are doing well because they just reported and that would be adobe and oracle. offer you can buy fang, facebook, amazon, netflix and google. stop worrying about alphabet and the ads, that will be solved. advertisers will come back. by the way, micron just got added to my list. symbol mu. only on a downturn. just to be sure, when i used the tarp example, i'm laying out an ridiculously extreme case that i do not think will happen no matter what. that said, i'm so sick of hearing about how badly this failure to pass this legislation
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will hurt trump and the stock market that i picked the worst case imaginable. help inoculate you against panic because as you know if you're a close watcher of "mad money," no one ever made a dime panicking. here's the bottom line. get your plan in place. be ready for all considerations. but most important understand that the republic, it's not in jeopardy. it's not in jeopardy with the postponed obamacare repeal vote. there is no systemic risk, and there are so many companies doing well regardless of washington that a selloff could give you just the break you need to do some serious -- >> buy, buy, buy. >> -- buying. ed in texas, ed. >> caller: booyah, jim, from sunny houston. love your show. >> thank you so much. thank you. what's going on? >> caller: well, the stock is first solar. it's a leader in a growing industry. it's way down around 28 bucks. 60% of its tangible -- very little debt, and a beat on sales
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and profit last quarter. is this a brainless buy? >> geez, ed, no, it's not. look, everything you said is true. it is one of the most oppressed stocks i've seen. i think it's a bit of a value trap. i think people feel they can't get it right technologically and it's not right with oil where it is. maybe you can deal with some deep in the money calls but i'm worried about it, ed. the stock is telling you it's not working. but i understand what you said. it is certainly inexpensive. how about we go to carlos in michigan, carlos. >> caller: hey, jim. first time caller, long time listener. i really appreciate your show. i think you're doing a great job for mainstream america. >> thank you. >> it gives everybody a chance. >> thank you very much. that's why we do the show. honestly after 12 years i'd better have some reason. go ahead. >> caller: i want to ask you about fitbit. what do you think is going to happen with fitbit? i've been watching it for a long time. it's at a low peak. i like to buy stocks when they're real low and see what happens if they get better.
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>> well, it's certainly low. it does feel like it's trying to put in a bottom. the company has not been able to manage expectations. it is one -- you know, i'm shaking my head because i don't want to -- let's just put it this way. it's probably near the bottom, but that's only because there's only five points from zero, all right? because i'm fed up as everybody else is with fitbit. there, i said it. okay. cramerica, you now have the various scenarios, so get your plan in place. there are so many companies doing well regardless of washington. don't be myopic. on "mad money" tonight, the company's takeover potential that could mean big returns on the stock. plus in disappointing retail sales, i'm pointing out one company that could become your go-to name in the space. and goldman recently gave drug maker ionis a vote of no
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confidence. i'm sitting down with the ceo to get his side of the story. stick with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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for most of last year the medical device court was one of those areas of health care that really shined. as investors worried that a hillary clinton victory could end up being very tough on the rest of the sector, particularly the pharmaceutical companies. so this group did okay. but then we got a couple of big disappointments right before the election from edwards life science, one of my favorites and zimmer biomed, which sent the whole medical device group plunging. plus after trump's surprise victory, investors starting swapping out of these consistent secular growth stories so they could lode up on the kind of cyclical stocks that have been
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so hot since the election because they benefit from an accelerating economy, something the medical device bull market seemed to kind of run out of steam at least for many stocks in the sector. but there's one name in this group that's quietly rallying. it's called add yew lent technologies, and that's letter a for all you home gamers. the makers of instruments, software, and consumables for laboratories and research centers around the world. when edwards and zimmer got clobbered, they had only a modest decline. then after finding its footing on december 1st, this stock has been a rocket ship, rallying ten straight points, giving you a 23% gain in less than four months. you know what? i thinkage lent's not done? i think letter a has more room to run, possibly a lot more. why? in part because its business is going very well at this company but more important at least to me -- and i usually don't do this on the show -- agilent
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feels like it's a prime takeover candidate. you know we never speculate on takeovers here on "mad money" unless the company's underlying fundamentals are sound. look, you don't want to buy the stock of a declining business only to watch its shares drift lower and lower as you wait for some other company to acquire the darn thing. but agilent's fundamentals are terrific, and i think its takeover prospects are excellent. let me explain. let's start with some background on what this company actually does. it's basically an arms dealer to the life sciences business, to the diagnostics companies, and also to the applied chemical makers. that's a smaller market, but it's very important for them. if you're running a lab, they've got nearly everything you need from heavy duty mri and spectrometry machines to reagents, bioanalyzer kits that you need to perform research or conduct diagnostic tests, to the software that keeps everything in the laboratory humming. when you look at the list of products on their website, it reads like something you'd seed
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on an episode of house or maybe dr. who, ought maked electrofor he'sis, liquid chrome maing to rafy, and plenty of others that i also could mispronounce but just take my word for it. now, agilent wasn't always this focused. it 'twas spun off by hewlett packrd but was original kind of a cats and dogs company. but then in november of 2014, it did something really smart. it broke itself up, spinning off its more cyclical electronic measurement business, which is now known as key sight technologies. this was the kind of textbook breakup that i adore, and if you've owned both stocks since the split was announced three and a half years ago, you're up roughly 40%. that's a nice long term move that beats the s&p's 36% gain over the same period. as it turns out, spinning off the electronic measurement division allowed it to focus on what it does best, making essential equipment and supplies for laboratory intensive industries like life sciences,
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diagnostics and applied chemicals. as a result, the company's core revenue growth has accelerated from 2014 through 2016. its operating margin expanded by 280 basis points, rising to 20.7%. perhaps more important, this breakup made agilent small ur and easier to understand. in other words it made the company more palatable to any potential acquirers. but before we go into the takeover potential, let's talk about why the stock has caught fire in recent months. i need you to know the fundamentals are good. grants the whole market has been rallying since the election but if you go back to december 1 when it bottomed, this stock is up 23%. as the calendar turned to 2017, the stock began to get a lot of love from the analyst community, catching a pair of upgrades from bark clays and gold man. that turned out to be justified. the company delivered a 4 cent earnings beat off a 40 cent basis, higher than expected
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revenue. its 4.8% core revenue growth translated into 15% earnings growth thanks to some margin expansion. it reiterated its earnings guidance. it was perfectment just last week, it caught up with still more upgrade, this one from morgan stanley where they talked about how the stock deserves to be re-rated higher because it's taking share of a pharma customers and their applied chemicals related business should benefit tremendously from an improving global economy. morgan stanley slapped a $62 price target on the stock, which would represent nearly 17% upside from these levels. if that analysis is correct, then it could give you a nice gain just by doing nothing. but i believe there's another element to the story. the possibility that agilent to get a takeover bid. why do i think it's so likely to be acquired? first of all, it's a rare island of calm in a health care sector that's full of uncertainty right now. who wants to acquire a drug company when lowering drug prices are pretty much the only thing that democrats and republicans seem to be able to
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agree on right now? who wants to buy a hospital chain or hmo when congress is debating right now the entire health care system and what it's going to look like? as for medical device companies, many of them have proven to be unreliable. agilent is one of the few health care players operating in a growth market that's also executing well. second, economies around the world are picking up speed, especially europe. it's got a ton of overseas exposure. europe's 29% of their sales. asia 37%. roughly half that asian business comes from china, so it would be a great fit for any company that's trying to expand internationally, especially into the people's republic. third, as i mentioned earlier, business is real good. it's doing well, got a low debt load, throws off tons of cash. that's exactly the kind of profile investment bankers look for when they pitch potential takeover targets to their clients. so who specifically might want to acquire these guys? there's an obvious suitor and that's general electric. the company made a great move when it got rid of its financial businesses but then it decided to expand aggressively into oil and gas right near the top.
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so why not do the opposite for its gigantic health care business and buy near the bottom? granted agilent has already moved up dramatically but still well below it would be trading if the health care sector was back in mode. ge's life science division makes many of the same types of products that agilent does. but even if ge is tied up with the baker hughes merger to do anything right now, i got other buyers here, plenty of other life science instrumentation companies need agilent. there's danaher, thermofisher. they all should want to take a crack at them. i tell members of action acti actionalertsplus.com. by the way, thermofish ser a serial acquirer too. here's the bottom line. age lent's been roaring lately. i think the stock either goes higher thanks to its strong fundamentals or spikes on a takeover bid from a ge or a
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danaher. if they do the deal, you know what? i'm doing pretty well. i'll go waive my investment banking fee.
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in this new world of disappointing retail sales with little or no growth, what passes as the kind of retalter you actually want to know? how about a chain with 1% same-store sales growth? i kid you not. that's what five below just delivered, and its stock roared up $4 or more than 10% today. now, we could say that in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. and with an eked out 1% same-store sales growth, that's truly the definition of a psych lops prevailing. but i got to tell you after listening to this call where five below -- i know five below is not in the same class as a home depot, ulta beauty, burlington, foot locker or children's place the mp. it's nevertheless acquitting
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itself quite well. how could it get such uproarious applause for putting up what would be disappointing numbers even a few years ago. let me tick down what the market likes about this one. first, five below has a well defined regional to national growth story, with a 20-20 plan for 20% sales growth and 20% net income growth. a plan it beat in 2016 and hopes to continue to beat, well, until 2020. they make it easy to remember. second, with only 522 locations, there's plenty of room for expansion, and until this year, five below had no stores in california. that's one fifth of the country. do you know what always paid to buy a regional or national story if they haven't entered california whether we're talking about dunkin' donuts or dollar general. plus there's tons of fill in. i know these guys from philadelphia where they started 15 years ago. back then, five below, they had about ten stores just recently and they just added four, some within two miles of each other. yet there's no cannibalization
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to speak of. that's terrific for gross margins especially because you can advertise in one area, amor tiez it over a whole host of locations. third, five below has a perfect balance sheet and a quick one-year payback on each $300,000 new store, which makes them a highly sought after tenant in declining real estate investment trust universe so they can get terrific rent detad deta details. we are a desired tenant as they mentioned on the conference call. fourth, they learn. their most recently opened stores are putting up their best numbers so they can take what's working in those locations and insert it into the old ones. given their newest stores are the best performers, i expect the 100 stores the company is adding to put up excellent numbers too. fifth, five below knows how to reach kids. they advertise disproportionately on social media. they tout their mobile phone reach and have a heavy presence on youtube. once again i assure you google will fix the youtube problem. sixth and final, the stores are fun and experiential places to go. this is a 100% polyester pillow.
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management talks about how they got the wow factor, where they wow teens of all ages with fresh merchandise, with tech mostly, you know, virtual reality, gaming, earplug-related goods, also some feature products like this one. this one's slime. i mean this is just -- this is fabulous, isn't it? i mean i'm telling you, it's fabulous. sufficiee it to say they know a hot more about what kids want than we do. listen, it's a bargain. you know what i feel about any glasses that make me feel like i'm wearing ray bans. i mean you combine the two of these things, and you've got a proven winner. maybe still to be proven winner. all right. you put it all together and in today's low bar environment, 11 consecutive years of positive comps, even with a 1% as of last year, it's enough to propel a stock much higher. oh, yeah, and the potential
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border tax derailment, it didn't come into play. it was mentioned on the call. but even here there's a glimmer of slimy hope as management believes there would be a low dollar exemption for imports. if that's the case, then five below -- and everyone knows i love these -- will become one of the go-to names for retail in 2017. let's go to rose marie in virginia, rose marie. >> caller: hi. good afternoon. how are you? >> i am doing great. how about you? >> caller: excellent, thank you. honored to be on your show. first time caller. >> excellent. >> caller: i am curious about alibaba and the stock volatility. it took a long time for it to beak 100. they had issues and news of bad products and today it's at 108. pacific crest has a target of 134. what do you think? >> i read that pacific crest -- first of all, rosemary, i read that pacific crest recommendation. i thought it was spot-on. they are doing so many things
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right. the ecosystem is right. the web system is right. going into rural markets is terrific. i think that alibaba is a great story. i know it's controversial, but i do think it goes higher. how do you like this stuff? i mean come on. i'm not denying that the retail world is a tough one to be in. but amidst the rubble lies a true gem. five below. oh, come on. tell me these don't look like the $79 kind. look, i think this is a go-to name for retail this year. when you see me at the beach, i'm wearing my five belows. now, much more "mad money" ahead including my take on ionis pharmaceuticals. this companies want to reprogram yourself to defeat disease. i'll get to the bottom of the story. then last night i told you an investor in europe was starting to look real attractive. so does that mean the euro could be ready to make a comeback? i'm going to the technicals. and all your calls rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round!
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we showed these kids some items from a nearby store... but they didn't know they were all tobacco products. ooh, this is cool. it smells like gum. yummy! this smells like strawberry. are these mints? given that 80% of kids who ever used tobacco started with a flavored product,
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who do you think tobacco companies are targeting? do we get to keep any? all right. how worried should we be about ionis pharmaceuticals, the biotech formerly known as isis.
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i'm not talking about president trump seems to want to crack down o. when millions of people lose their health care insurance, those issues don't help but there's more to it than washington. in case you don't know. ionis pharmaceuticals pioneered technology where they target your rna and effectively reprogram your cells, allowing them to cure all sorts of diseases, particularly rare genetic conditions. however, even though it has an enormous pipeline with drugs in development, same major partnerships, the stock is still down more than 20% year-to-date. some of that is because we're in a kind of health care limbo, but a lot of it is company specific. goldman sachs published a down grade of ionis, taking it to a sell, pointing it has one of the highest discontinuation rates in industry, 47%, meaning many of their drug candidates never get anywhere near the fda approval process. they talked about safety
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concerns. it seems many of these drugs can have real toxicity issues at least according to the fda. the other beef, aside from the treatment for spinal muscular atrophy, goldman doesn't think much of ionis' late stage pipeline at all, even if it's most compelling products could potentially face serious competition from gene therapy or other biotechs using similar technology. so what do we have to do here? what do we do? ionis has given us some fabulous long term gained. it's tripled since i started recommending it for speculation. but if goldman is right, maybe it's too risky. that's why i want to dig deeper with the chairman and ceo to get a better sense of his company. welcome back to "mad money." >> great to be back, jim. thanks for having me. >> doctor, we got to take it right on here. goldman says that your anti-sense platform has yet to be fully optimized given the low rate of clinical success and ongoing toxicity across multiple
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drugs. what do you have to say? >> well, i think rather than responding directly to that, i think the most sensible thing to do is just to give you a small list of the obvious tangible opportunities that have just clearly tangible value. >> okay. >> just at a very high level, first of all, we were profitable at the operating line last year, and we've said that we will be profitable on an ongoing basis going forward. second, spin ra za is obviously a fundamental break through in the treatment of a catastrophic disease. essentially all analysts i've read show that spin ra za is capable of being a several billion dollar a year drug. we know that the launch is going extremely well. >> when you say that, i don't mean to be rude. when you say extremely well, goldman questions whether it can
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really make a lot of money, and part of that is because they say there are safety risks and that there is pushback from insurance. >> yeah, i think it's just wrong. >> okay. >> first of all, we identified no specific safety signals, and probably the best evidence for that is that the fda approved the drug in a record time of about three months with the broadest label possible. now, in a package insert, the fda chooses to put all sorts of observations in, and those are appropriate to be in the package insert. but the drug works phenomenally well. we've identified no significant size effects, and there is no current competition. so we're very confident of this drug, and i think if you talk to physicians who are using it or you talk to patients or parents of patients who are benefiting from it, who are alive and well because of the drug, i think
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you'll find that what i've said is absolute truth. >> okay. how about the notion of the pipeline. can you please speak to the pipeline. i mean goldman feels that because of this toxicity issue, that it really is frankly the pipeline's promise is not nearly as great as your company has said. >> well, of course i disagree. so let's just focus on the phase three assets first. >> okay. >> we just finished a phase three program with a drug called vel on source to treat patients with a severe, rare disease that is associated with fatality, severe day to day symptoms, and then punctuated by bouts of potentially fatal pancreatitis. all of these problems are caused by severely high triglyceridtri. the patients who entered our trial had try hingis ride levels
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of 2,200 milligrams per december liter. healthy is 150. and vel on source lowered triglyceri triglycerides by -- now, it is true that the first presentation, the only natural history study to be done in these patients took place after about mid point of our phase three study. and before that, we encountered some platelet declines, and we've now learned, thanks to the natural history study, that those are a natural process of the disease associated with severely high triglycerides. if our drug lowers triglycerides, they may make them a little worse. it took a little while to understand that, get control of that. once we did, there were no more drop outs in the study, and the drug has performed extremely well. there is no treatment for these patients. >> let me just ask because i'm running short of time. the ttrx, you've got some data
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coming up. this is another important study. are you confident that goldman will look -- are you confident goldman is too negative about that drug? >> yes, i am, but i think more importantly what we have in addition to ttr is 38 other drugs in development. >> okay. >> and partners that you just named, in this quarter alone, $250 million from corporate partners who know every bit of data in the company. certainly much more information than any analyst who depends on public information only. >> i just want to be clear. $250 million in milestone, in royalty payments to your company even though goldman says sell. they are paying it to you. you've got that in your coffers? >> well, just to be clear, it's cash. it's also -- we did a new relationship with novartis earlier this quarter. we have milestones coming. we have all kinds of
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transactions with not just beyer, and biogen and gsk, but novartis, roche, and j & j, and i would say it would be very difficult to make the case for those folks to invest knowing everything going on in the company if all of our drugs were going to fail and our toxicities were a big problem. >> fair enough. dr. stanley crooke, thank you so much for coming on, sir. i really appreciate it. well, you've got to look at both sides. one guy says it's a sell, the drugs aren't working. another guy just told you about all those partners and the money coming in. make up your own decision. this is a tough one. "mad money" is back after the break. ♪
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♪ what we do every nig is like something out of a strange dream cept that the next morning it all makes sense. to power global e-commerce fedex networks are massive far-reaching and, yes a little magical. ♪
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>> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. it is time! it is time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." that's where i take your calls rapid fire. you tell me the name of the stock. i tell you to buy, buy, buy or sell, sell, sell. we'll play this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? it's time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." let's start with jason in utah, jason. >> caller: hey, jim. happy action alerts member here.
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thank you for everything. >> thank you. >> caller: my family loves you, especially my 12-year-old daughter katie. stock is ford. >> tell katie thank you and thank you to your family and thank you for describing being a club member. the stock ford is too hard for me to own frankly. they're going to miss the quarter again. at a certain point we have to say enough, okay? just enough. let's go to michael in new jersey, michael. >> caller: hey, jim, thanks for taking my call. >> of course. >> caller: i'm looking into constellation brands as an investment but i have two concerns. the first concern is the possibility of a border tax. >> right. >> caller: and the second concern is i've been doing some research, and i've been reading a lot that a lot of people in this country are switching from up to 25% of beer drinkers are switching from beer to marijuana. and if the legalization continues, what's your view on this? >> it's an interesting point because some of the big states did legalize it. but i still think that beer sells well. we're looking at the aggregate
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numbers and constellation sells best. but i will tell you this. i am worried about the border tax, but i'm not backing away from constellation. i think this will be resolved and not against constellation's way. let's go to richard in pennsylvania, richard. >> caller: this is richard from canonsburg, pennsylvania, hometown of perry como and bobby vinton. my question is on cypress. >> i want you to stay in cypress. i think something's brewing there. you got the earnings being good and i think there's always the possibility of a transaction. let's go to jim in north carolina, jim. >> caller: jim, optco health. >> yeah, we got to get phil frost on the stock. it keeps dribbling and drabling ever since they made that acquisition. don't have a line on it. john in ohio, john. >> caller: mr. cramer, i own philip morris international. there are rumors of a merger with their older parent company once again. would you recommend i hold or sell? >> someone today came out and said that's absolutely not a
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possibility and took altria down to a sell. doesn't matter. i think philip morris is doing incredibly well, and i think it's fine to own. let's go to jim in connecticut, jim. >> caller: booyah from connecticut, jim. >> nice. >> caller: i've owned kai mara investment, cim, for the last two years now, and it's been on a tear lately, up about 43% this year with a large dividend. you think i should ring the register or let the bull run? >> i got to tell you it's been a remarkable stock of course i don't really know what they own because they're a specially financed company. i would take some off the table and let the rest run. that's my suggestion to you. let's go to steve in new york, steve. >> caller: hey, jim. thanks for taking my call. >> same. >> caller: i'll get right to the point. what's going on with rrd? i bought it when you liked it last year. >> yes. you know what? i'm wrong. i'm wrong, but it's got a 4.7% yield. i think it's doing incredibly well. i think the market's ill informed about the situation. but so far i'm wrong on rd.
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i said, look, i'm sticking with it but i admit i've not made money for me. i've lost money for people on this. we've had a long term belief on it and i still think it can work out. and that, ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round. [ buzzer ] >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. cole, this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens inhe market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. at bp's cooper river plant, employees take safety personally - down to each piece of equipment, so they can protect their teammates and the surrounding wetlands, too. because safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better.
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europe was starting to look a lot more attractive, especially
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vis-a-vis the united states. european economies are picking up speed. their stock markets are in many cases outperforming our own. europe's messy politics, one of the continents most destabilizing features for years now are starting to look a lot more stable, and a key european bank bond buying program that kept interest rates low set to wind down. so does that mean the euro, the single currency for the continent, could finally be ready to make a comeback after spending the last six years in the house of pain? on the one hand, as europe starts to be seen as a safer place for investors worldwide to put their money, that should send the euro higher because if you want to buy the assets on the continent, the first thing you need to do of course is to buy the currency that they're denominated in. on the other hand, though, the federal reserve just raised interest rates again, promising at least two more rate hikes later this year, which is going to make it harder for the euro to rally versus the dollar because higher rates translate into a stronger currency. so wither the euro?
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tonight we're going off the charts to answer that question with the help of carly garner, the brilliant technician and an expert on trading currencies and commodity who is the co-founder of decarly training as well as being my colleague at re realmoney.c realmoney.com. garner has a good track with us. when oil was trading in the mid-50s, she warned us it was stuck in a technical no man's land and could sink to 46 or 47. there it is today, 47. nice call. what's her opinion on the euro. the truth is for the last few years, european currency has been boring. after going into free fall, the euro spent the past two years pretty much trading sideways, stuck treading between a few pennies to a few nickels above par, which means a one to one ratio with the dollar. garner says that's a fairly low level of volatility, especially com pafred to the crushing declines at various points over the last decade. garner is a student of the euro's history, and she believes
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that the european common currency won't always be this placid. she also thinks it's important to remember that who it's come close to par with the dollar, it's never gone under it since inception 18 years ago. the reason the euro has been stuck down here of late is pretty straightforward. there's a huge interest rate differential between eurozone member states and the united states. right now if you were to buy the ten-year u.s. treasury which we talk about endlessly, you're going to get 2.4% yield. the german ten-year, though, 0.4%. two-year and five-year german bond still have negative yields meaning if you buy these pieces of paper, you're literally paying angela merkel for the privilege of lending her government money. that means if you're a european looking for a nice return, you need to translate your euros into greenbacks. and while the fed is going to keep raising rates, european central bank is still in quantitative easy mode although now they're starting to taper. that means they're still years
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behind us when it comes to tightening. here's the thing though. garner says this is already baked into the exchange rate. she believes the euro is forming a base here. this is a very contrary call, people. a base, meaning it's gaining adherence as it trades sideways and possibly preparing for a rally. longer term she thinks the euro's prospects look pretty rosy and even short term there are some seasonal factors that could give the common currency the boost it needs to break out of its long-term slump. first take a look at the seasonal chart of the euro based on data from moore research center. this picture shows you how the euro has tended to perform in an average year based on the last 15 years. garner points out what we see here is the euro has a very strong tendency to rally from march through april and early may, specifically this is incredible 15-year composite. in 13 of the last 15 years, the euro has rallied from april through may. it doesn't necessarily mean it's
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going to happen again this year, but this kind of seasonal pattern deserves to be respected. plus garner thinks the down side risk for the euro is very limited here. around 1.08 buys you one euro while the upside potential wide open. seasonally we know we're in the right pattern. look at this. check out the weekly chart of the euro currency futures contract that trades in the chicago mercantile exchange. in garner's view, in her view, the action here paints a similarly positive picture. in 2014 and 2015, okay, when the euro was in freefall, will you look at this? this is a bad time to go to paris right there. it was in free fall. it dropped from 1 plt 40 down to 1.05, losing a quarter of its value in basically one year. that is a gigantic move for a first world currency. since then, it's been bouncing along, right? tending to find support at the 103, 104 level, which it tested again last december. as far as beganer is concerned, the euro has spent the last two years building an amazing base,
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and it could be ready for a sustainable rally. however, we might get one last pullback before that happens. that's garner's view, and i think she's right about the euro's trajectory, but let me give you my two cents here. i'm totally buying into her view. ordinarily i don't recommend speculating in foreign currencies. one time back at my old hedge fund, i lost a fortune betting on dutch guilders. they don't even exist anymore. i went out to get some lunch at burger king, and when i got back, the berlin wall had fallen. throwing the currency markets into chaos. whatever. russian government, whatever. i didn't have it my way. that said, i believe the euro is headed higher and the safest way to play it is with the xfe, the etf that reflects the journeyeu dollar exchange rate. stick with this etf. or you could play it indirectly through american companies that do a lot of business in europe because when you euro gets
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stronger, the european earnings strance late back into more dollars and their products become comparatively cheaper. i think alphabet, parent company of google, may be your best bet as it's down on a story about lost advertising dollars that i believe will be remedied rather quickly. it won't be nearly as impactful as the press indicates. alphabet has a gigantic business in europe. here's the bottom line. after languishing for years, the charts suggest the euro could soon be ready to make a comeback, and that would be very good news for the fxe and a whole host of american companies that have enormous european exposure. i'm liking this call. stick with cramer. is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, yo finances, yo future. how do you solvehi u don't.
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you partner with a firat advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person toerson, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.
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i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow! >> welcome to the shark tank,
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where entrepreneurs seeking an investment will face these sharks. if they hear a great idea, they'll invest their own money or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪ first into the shark tank is jonathan boos with an innovative product line for the well-dressed man. hi, everyone. my name is jonathan boos, and i'm the owner of the men's brand wurkin stiffs,

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