been great. you had a lot of areas in the market take some damage that will probably take time to repair. so don't feel like you're in a rush with any names. mind your stops. >> thank you very much. "power lunch" begins right now. >> thank you, brian. of course, we'll see you in a few moments. i'm michelle caruso had been cabrera. what we're watching and all of wall street is watching at this hour. the house will be voting, we think, on the final version of the health care bill. we'll see. vote expected in the coming hours. we'll be live on capitol hill with the late, breaking details straight ahead. there are a lot of them. we're expecting to hear from the white house. live shot from the press briefing room. sean spicer will kick things off some time in the next half hour. we'll carry that for you. we think health care will be the very big focus for today. and also, we are all over the market, of course. because the market has been

moving with the fluctuations related to the headlines about whether or not they're going to vote. do they have the votes? all the different scenarios and what they mean for your money. don't move. we've got a busy two hours of "power lunch." starting right now. good afternoon, everybody, and welcome. i'm tyler mathisen. before that final, we think, house vote on capitol hill. team of reporters are standing by. john harwood is standing by in our newsroom. let's kick it off, though, with kayla tausche on capitol hill. kayla? >> reporter: tyler, there have been some reports that say the report is in jeopardy. politico say there are signs hours before the vote. quoting some leadership saying they don't know which way the vote will go, despite the fact that they have been trying to whip members and calculate votes throughout the morning. at this moment the vice

president is huddling with members of the freedom caucus a short distance away from the capitol at the capitol hill club holding an off-campus meeting and that will be happening until the time of the vote or intended time for the vote because we don't know whether that's going to happen. we do know speaker of the house paul ryan is at the white house right now, discussing this bill with the president. we will see what the outcome that have conversation is. what i can tell you is an anecdote that some are talking about today, trying to parse exactly where the freedom caucus is in all of this 30 to 50 lawmakers, some from the freedom caucus, some from the tuesday group, more moderate group, and they were meeting with members of the white house staff. the freedom caucus was asked specifically -- basically a roll call. go down the line and say how you're voting. chairman mark meadows spoke on behalf of the group, that the members did not speak up individually about how they were voting and that he said that he

wasn't there yet basically. that in one instance of this story or actually two instances of this story someone said he said no, we are still no on this vote. others said that he said to members of leadership in the room, if you have 216 votes, why do you need to know where we stand on this? a little bit of a different take there. the freedom caucus, as recently as last night, was asked to go down the line and say where they stood. tells you there's uncertainty on house leadership about exactly how this was going to play out today. they spent all morning trying to figure it out. we know that there are some tough signs for this bill and that the vote, as it stands -- the best word, guys, is fragile. >> kayla, thanks very much. let's transition over to john harwood live in our newsroom with more reporting and analysis. john? >> tyler, i think this bill is in very deep trouble. the white house and speaker ryan had some success in peeling off

the hard nos among the freedom caucus. eight to ten have flipped over and gone over with the administration, putting the ownous on the moderates. the chair of the appropriations committee, represents new jersey, said he is a no on the bill. so it appears that there is a sufficient group when you combine moderates and others scattered around the country and the freedom caucus hard no votes to take this thing down. i think speaker ryan is at the white house, discussing with the president do we want to put it on the floor, have a vote, which risks a stampede to no, could turn into an overwhelming defeat or do we want to pull the bill? last any time mick mulvaney, the budget director, gave an umt maim to the congress and said we're going to make you vote and figure out who is -- lay down when you vote who is for us, who against us and we're going to remember.

that has not seemed to work for them so far. they've got a few hours left. who knows what vice president pence can do with some of his former colleagues. it's looking bleak for this bill and it raises the question how quickly, it does fail how quickly they get on to other issues like tax reform. >> has the issue for the bill flipped from being one that resided principally with the freedom caucus, the hard conservatives and now the problem is retaining the moderates? >> well, it's both. tyler, i was told by a freedom caucus source this morning that there were 18 hard nos among the freedom caucus. they can only lose 22 members. that means if you have four other defections, you take the bill down. there are more than four moderates who have indicated they're opposed to the bill. nobody's decision is final until you've got to go down and cast

your vote and go up or down. but it does not appear that there is the underlying support to pass this. and i think when i asked leadership is ryan going down to the white house to tell the president the votes are not there, the answer was, well, he's going to update the president. there was not a denial of that -- >> it's very hard to vote against your speaker and against your president. isn't it, john? >> well, it is and it isn't. remember, these freedom caucus guys -- first of all, if you have a bill that's very controversial, the safe vote is always to vote no. all health care votes are controversial. this bill got a 17% approval in a poll out yesterday. it is not a popular bill. the heritage actions against it, club for growth is against it, major doctor and hospital groups are against it. it is not that difficult especially when you have president trump openly on the campaign trail saying, well, i didn't really want to do this first. i would rather go to tax reform.

>> sure. >> it's kind of a signal he's not sticking with this for the long run. >> john harwood, thanks. if the health care bill fails in the house does it put the rest of president trump's agenda in jeopardy? now ceo of the lindsay group. some of the biggest financial firms on policy matters. our viewers know you as an economist. you are a long-time washington hand as well. if this fails today, who is to blame? is it paul ryan? is it president trump or is it the freedom caucus? >> well, i think in part it's all of the above. the big loser, however, will be the president. the president wanted to have repeal and replace done together. and i think that was a mistake. i think ryan's original plan to repeal and then replace it over the next two years was much more politically sound. >> so, what i don't -- >> remember one other thing, if i may. >> go ahead.

>> sorry. here, you go back to have two dozen members of the president's party roll the president. that can't possibly be a good thing. and so i would be -- i think the president is going to be a big loser in this. >> what does that mean for corporate tax reform? ultimately that's been driving most of this rally on wall street and has been stalled as we see health care reform stall. >> one of the silliest things i've heard out of wall street is that the idea that this is good for tax reform. absolutely not. they may move to it next but when you have a president who can't deliver his own caucus, then the president's position will be weakened on all issues. if you're a congressman and don't like something, you now have an example of how you can roll the president. >> i thought there was more leverage out there. i read about this congressman from iowa, davidion. he said he's going to vote against this. paul ryan's super pac said

you're going to vote against it? great. that $9.1 million we spent on your election last time around, you're not getting it. we're shutting down our offices and you're going to lose. i would think that would carry more sway. you need money to win. >> i think what ryan did was exactly right. the guy made this decision and then they pulled the money. i think the president should have done the same thing. i think the president should have asked all the members of the freedom caucus, do you want me to raise money for you or for your primary opponent? they may not have a primary opponent now. but if you've got the president offering to raise money for somebody's opponent, one is going to emerge pretty quickly. it would have helped scare these guys to the line. >> i would like to delve deeper this is damaging to the future of tax reform, for example, among other things. this is a bill that largely, as john harwood said, unpopular. but tax reform and particularly corporate tax reform is popular.

be i think a lot of people on the far right in the freedom caucus would agree with that. i'm curious and a little more skeptical on the idea that if this goes down it makes that that much harder. i get the political calculus but tax reform is popular. this isn't. >> let's start with the policy problem. this bill was necessary for budgetary reasons, as a predecessor for tax reform. it was a net revenue gainer. they just lost a net revenue gainer. that will make it hard to have a broad comprehensive tax bill. remember, what the president -- and i think members of congress -- should watch is not just your regular tax reform. they need a major supply tax reform that gets the economy moving. if the president is able to push growth up to 3% or 3.5% -- which i think he could with the right kind of tax reform -- then i don't think they have to worry about their other political

problems. if they don't get reform and sort of throw money at corporations or individuals, if you will, that's not going to help the economy. and that's not going to help the president with republicans. >> larry, thank you so much for joining us on this pivotal day. we'll wait to see if they'll ever get this vote done at all today. larry lindsay. >> what does all this health care vote mean to you and your money? 2 trillion worth of investment advice right now, who is merrill lynch's chief investment office there. welcome. good to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> how do you filter something of what's going on in washington into how you think about what to do with people's money? >> well, i think certainly with respect to the health care bill, it was a high-stakes gamble, having the vote today. i think if the vote actually passes, it's a big win for the administration as well as for paul ryan. i think the markets would rally. if it goes down, i think it's a

huge setback for the administration and its ambitious agenda with respect to tax reform as well as infrastructure spending. >> do you make any changes to your assumptions about the market, any changes to how you would recommend portfolios be allocated as a result of that? >> i don't think so. when we -- we have a bullish outlook on equities on a 12-month verizon. that's not based on the passage of any significant reforms, even tax reform. we actually pay much more attention to the profit cycle and the economic cycle. and on that respect, it looks pretty good. fundamentals are pretty strong for stocks. if you look at the prospects for economic growth, they're improving. not just in the u.s. but globally as well. our growth for 2017 is about 2%. that's a significant step up from the 1.6% we got in 2016. >> sure. >> here is the thing. you said you pay attention to corporate profitability. of course. that's what everybody does,

right? that's the eps that everybody is so interested in. a lot of the rally was based on the idea that earnings were going to be better because corporations would be paying less in taxes. do you agree that's partly what's driven this rally? and you say you don't build in any expectations related to corporate tax reform. it sure feels like a lot of people did. >> i think that's a fair point. some of this rally is built on the expectation of fiscal reform coming through and tax cuts coming through. most of it was due to the improvement in the fundamentals, mainly economic growth as well as corporate profits. remember that we had two full years of flat profit growth for the s&p 500 in 2015 and 2016. that began to change in the fourth quarter. and for all of 2017 we're expecting about an 8% to 10% growth for earnings for the s&p 500. >> if hillary clinton had been the winner on november 8th, all the rally we started to see the

day after the election. interesting point about the rally, we've seen things really begin to change at the election so we've been overweight equities and underweight bonds in our portfolio really since the summer of 2016 when interest rates bottomed, inflation bottomed. so i think either way the elections went, you would have seen the reflation trade recalled in many ways. >> let'slet me push more on what michelle just asked. do you think the market would have performed roughly the same if clinton had won and you don't attribute much of the gain since election day to the idea that there is a more business-friendly vibe than the white house? >> that's a fair point. there certainly is very much -- >> could i interrupt you? i beg your pardon. we're going to go listen to the white house press secretary, sean spicer, see what he's

saying. thank you. the president announced the official approval of the presidential permit for the keystone xl pipeline. the last administration spent eight years delaying this enormous investment in energy independence. president trump is moving this project forward in eight weeks. as he promised it's an even better deal for the american people than before he took office. this project will directly sw n generate an estimated 16,000 jobs all without spending a dime of taxpayer money. it represented everything that was wrong with the infrastructure permitting of the united states. transcanada spent resources attempting to comply with government regulations only to be denied and delayed for political reasons. but the days of pointless government bureaucracy, holding up progress and production have ended. by simply getting excessive duplicative regulations out of the way we can make infrastructure projects more

attractive and a more attractive prospect for private investors and encourage more projects like this one. immediately following the announcement by trans-canada, charter communications have committed to investing $25 billion in the united states and hiring an additional 20,000 american workers over the next four years. charter communications is truly an example of how leadership can turn a downward company into an amazing success. charter communications was a struggling company five years ago that had slowly emerged from bankruptcy. thanks to the hard work and leadership of ceo tom rutledge it is the fastest growing company in its industry. many jobs had previously been shipped overseas, today charter has committed to completely inding its off-shore call

centers and having them based in the united states. it demonstrates the new economic model of what the president calls, quote, the american model, by slashing job killing regulations and lowering taxes. we'll make it easier for all business to grow right here at home, boosting our economy by getting government out of the way. the president had lunch with secretary of the treasury steve mnuchin, joined by speaker paul ryan. i'll update you in a second on that. later in the day the president will host a greek celebration and medal of honor day, which is technically tomorrow. he is honored to be hosting these great men and women of our armed services, greatest force for peace and justice the world has ever known. obviously, later today, the house will be voting on the american health care act, the current vote is scheduled for 3:30. the president has been working the phones and having in-person

meeting since the american health care act was introduced. he has left everything on the field when it comes to this bill. obamacare's washington driven, one size fits all plan had seven years to prove its case. it's left us with sky rocketing premiums, on average premiums for obamacare, benchmark plans increased 25% in 2017. unaffordable deductibles, two most popular obamacare health plans have average deductibles equivalent to 10% and 6% of the median american household income. with these high deductibles, many people have technically insurance but nothing they can afford to use. fewer choices, one in five americans have only one insurer offered through obamacare through exchanges and, of course, higher taxes. key conservative groups like the tea party express have added themselves to the long list of organizations expressing their

support for the american health care act because they know it's our chance after the american people have spent years suffering to finally repeal and replace the nightmare of obamacare. the president looks forward to seeing the house republicans joined with these influential voices and vote in favor of the american health care act. the president, as i mentioned, had speaker ryan come up here and visit with him to update him on the bill. they are continuing to discuss the way forward on this. the speaker is updating him on these efforts. as i mentioned to many of you, the president has been working throughout the week on this, calling early and starting early in the morning and working till late at night. call members, visiting with members, over 120 members have personally had a visit, call or meeting here at the white house in the past few days, which is an extraordinary feat. the president and his team have committed everything they can to making this thing happen. and the speaker will continue to update him on the way forward. finally, a few administrative notes here at the end.

yesterday senior level united states and israeli delegations concluded four days of intensive talks with a particular focus on concrete near-term measures to improve the overall climate in order to advance the prospects of a genuine and lasting peace between israel and palestine. the delegation was led and included representatives of the nsc and department of state. specific measures that could have meaningful impact on the economic environment on the west bank in gaza, allowing the palestinians to fully more realize their economic potential. israeli settlement construction, the fact that both governments committed such senior delegations for so many days reflects the close cooperation between both countries and that both assigned to this vital task. the president has announce

ed additions to the administration, ambassador to japan, robert sumwahl iii and also this morning of note, the united states district court for the eastern district of virginia upheld the president's revised executive order, protecting the nation from foreign people who seek to do us harm into the united states. the plaintiffs had no likelihood of success on the merits of their claims. as the court correctly noted the president's order falls well within his legal authority to protect the nation's security. we're confident that the president's fully lawful and necessary action will ultimately be allowed to move forward through the rest of the court systems. in terms of the schedule for this weekend the president will spend a working weekend here in washington and will update you with further details regarding his schedule. with that, we'll get to your

questions. steve? >> your understanding then is that you don't have the votes to pass the health care legislation. is that the message that speaker ryan delivered today? if so what lessons do you go off this process? >> the speaker is currently having a conversation with them to talk about where that vote count stands. he's working with the members. the president made a sell, tuesday group here. 17 members here. 16 walked out as a yes. i think we've had, you know, a group of members that we've continued to have a conversation with. and try to make, frankly, at this point it's not a question of negotiating anymore. it's understanding the greater good at hand. the president understands this is it. we have this opportunity to change the trajectory of health care, to help improve -- put a health care system in place and the nightmare that republicans have campaigned on called obamacare. i noted yesterday was the seventh year anniversary of obamacare. we have an opportunity to make sure that was the last one. the question is, do members

realize this opportunity? there's no question, in my mind at least, that the president and the team here have left everything on the field. we have called every member that have had a question or concern, tried to the extent possible take into considerations ideas that would strengthen the bill and now will be up to the members of the house to decide whether or not they want to follow through on the promises of that. we'll continue to work with the speaker and the leadership there to see, you know, where the votes r we're getting closer and closer. you need to get to 216. you know, they started four hours of debate. i expect a vote around the 3:30, 4:00 hour. let's see where we go. hunter? >> thank you, sean. we're hearing that paul ryan and mitch mcconnell wanted to do a clean repeal and then replace over time. in retrospect, would that have been a better approach? and in general, do you think paul ryan has handled this well? >> i don't know that that's entirely the case. i know that this was a joint

effort. this is something that the house determined in terms of the three-prong approach that we had. so i don't know that i necessarily agree with the assessment of how that happened. >> was the white house happy with how paul ryan -- >> i think the speaker has done everything he can. he has worked closely with the president. i think at the end of the day -- i said this yesterday. you can't force people to vote. but i think we've given them every single reason to fulfill every pledge that they've made. and i think this is the right thing to do. maggie, i don't want you to live tweet. >> what is the white house's view if this doesn't pass? what about the president's agenda with tax reform? >> i said it before, i don't think you tie any of these together. that's just not -- i think there's a huge appetite for tax

reform. i'm not trying to juxtapose anything to do with today's vote or not. i think it will be great to see it put forward. the president has put a lot of time and effort into this. i think he has made a strong case as to why this has to happen. if we don't get -- regardless of what happens today, and i still feel optimistic that, you know, the speaker and the president, vice president, they got a team that's been up on the hill most of the day. they'll continue to try to get every vote they can. but that doesn't mean whether it's immigration or tax reform, there's still a huge appetite out there. so -- >> and if this fails today, is the president done? >> so negative. >> that's what we're hearing florida that's what you're hearing? i haven't heard that yet. why don't we continue with a very positive, optimistic friday. the sun is coming out.

i feel really good. you know, so we're going to continue to work as late as we can to get the votes. as i said, the upside is that we continue to pick up votes. people continue to say they -- the question is, can we get to 216? make no mistake about it. the president made it clear last night, this is it. you have the opportunity to do what you told the american people, the commitment that we, as a party, have made. but this is your chance to do what we've done. we've listened, incorporated, updated in every way possible. when you look at legislative efforts, i think the president has given it his all. and i think it shocked a lot of people how very detail oriented, how personal it was for him, calling members as early as 6:00 in the morning, going until 11:00 at night the last several nights, sitting down, meeting after meeting with them, revising it, having his team

back and forth. everything is out there. each of these members needs to make that decision whether or not they believe that they've -- you know, at some point you can only do so much is what i can honestly tell you. everything you can possibly do to listen to members to get concerns in this piece of legislation to make it as strong as possible has been done. >> obamakeratining? >> n -- obama keratin icare continu? >> no, of course not. he has put so much effort into repealing this. he has made it clear that this is our moment, our opportunity to do t it is now up to members to make that decision whether they want to be part of this effort to repeal obamacare. if they don't -- you saw the president's tweet this morning. for a lot of members, this is

your opportunity. it's ultimately them who have to go down to the floor and cast that vote. we've been able to cast a bunch of votes over the past couple of years when you knew a president wouldn't sign it. you now have a president who is going to sign the bill if you pass it. now is that time. zeke. ? >> the president said fix it. the entire campaign message had his voters and the american people, he knows how to get deals done and break gridlock in washington. he is the closer, he said earlier this week. if this vote goes down, what does it say about the president? is the president humbled by this process and will he readjust the -- >> as i said to you all, i'm still optimistic. i feel like we're continuing to work hard. but, you know, at the end of the day you can't force somebody to do something. there's nobody that objectively can look at this effort and say

the president didn't do every single thing he possibly could with his team to get every vote possible. i think that's why i still feel good about this. but, you know, we are who we are. and members have got to make that decision for themselves. this is the final hour to make that decision. blake? >> sean, is it under any consideration to pull the bill at all between now and then? >> you're so negative. >> there's reports out there. >> i understand. there are reports out there. the speaker and the president are talking now. the leader and the whip are doing their vote counts. the debate is ongoing. we're going to continue to work. we're proceeding with a 3:30 vote as scheduled. john? >> take me through the thinking yesterday when the bill was pulled and the president made the decision or his team went to the hill saying there's going to be a vet today. at what point did he make that calculation, why did he make that calculation? can you bring us through some of that? >> yeah. we wanted to be as open as pop

possiblea with the vote. current trajectory last night it was going into the wee hours of the morning. for all that we talked about, that wasn't the appropriate way to vote. i think we decided to work with the house and ask that they postpone and make sure that it was done in the light of day. but i think he has had enough discussions. and it is not about improving the bill anymore. i think he has taken into consideration every member's thoughts and concerns and relayed those to the house and to the extent that, you know, this balance of trying to get to 216 in this case is such that there are some people that come in with ideas and say if you do that, i'm going to give up 20 or to get these three i'm going to give up 12. we've struck the right balance and it is the strongest possible bill. but he will continue to work as hard as he can until the very end. charlie?

>> how important is a live vote to the white house and the president? >> we've seen the whip counts. he has done a phenomenal job with leader mccarthy. we know where the vote count stands. we don't need a live vote to tell us where the votes are. people have been pretty straightforward with where they are and what their outstanding issues are. >> the president and speaker are meeting right now. can you tell us anything about the character of that meeting or what exactly they're looking at going forward? >> well, they're discussing. they're not looking. they're sitting down and talking about where it stands, outstanding issues and whether they're onesies, or twosies and some of the concerns of some of the blocs and individuals and having a discussion on that. >> is there somebody that's going to ask when it passes -- >> do you want a briefing right after the vote?

>> no. >> okay. then -- >> score one for you. >> if the bill doesn't pass, does the president still have confidence in -- >> i think he answered that question earlier today. >> does he think he should step down if it doesn't -- >> he answered that question earlier and said he did. >> specifically after the vote, whatever happens, how will we get a response from you all? >> electronically or verbally. one of the two. peter? >> the president's first forray into the sausage-making process, so to speak. has he reflected at all -- for example, how does he feel about renegotiating a business deal, real estate deal? is it trickier? >> i think we'll have plenty of time to reflect on it after we do this. so, i know that -- i'll just leave it at that for now. kristen? >> without prejudging the outcome --

>> thank you. >> -- does the president in any way regret pursuing health care first, given how complicated it is? >> no. i think if you think about it legislatively, in order to maximize -- and i know this is -- for most people it doesn't make a ton of sense but the savings that you achieve through the first reconciliation of health care, which we're doing through the 2017 budget process, which still continues, allows us to utilize the savings in that process to maximize additional tax reform measures that will start in the 2018, fy2018 reconciliation process. while that sounds like a ton of inside baseball gobbly gook, in order to maximize tax reform on the corporate side to make our businesses more competitive and give individuals, middle-class americans, more tax relief, doing this in that way maximizes the amount of savings you can use for the second

reconciliation package, which would be tax reform. doing it the first way, you can do. but, again, you're not going to achieve the full potential that you could if you did it the way that is happening now. but that being said, it's not a question of -- we all knew how big this was. it's one-fifth of the economy. and what it took. the issue is that, i think the disparate interests that are there and some of the process explaining, if you will, that understanding -- the way that this is happening and legislatively, it's complicated. and for a lot of folks, just to understand why can't you do it all in one foul swoop? what's the bird rule? what's reconciliation? why do you have to do it in three phases? for a lot of people that's complicated to understand. it's not just a question of understanding. one of the other things that the president and the team have found is that there's a lot of issues where people are wondering if i vote for this, how can i guarantee that i get something in phase two, which is

the administrative pieces that secretary price would institute. and then third is, well, these legislative things will take 60 votes to complete the overall package how do i have trust -- so there is a lot of -- comprehensive nature of this makes it very complicated. and that's a lot different normally of one bill that sails through and deals with all these thingses. if someone has an amendment, you add it in. in this process we have to have one-off discussions, will the senate accept this if you put it in? will they not only accept it but the bird will take place and kick everything out. this complicates it more than anything else. >> to put a fine point on it, though, was it his idea to do first or did house speaker paul ryan -- >> during the transition we sat down and gamed out what should go first and why. it's not just a question of what should go first. it's a question of if you don't do it first do you lose some of

the potential in savings that you would have achieved through the second reconciliation? >> would it have been wiser to work with the freedom caucus, for example, on infrastructure reform to build up -- >> look, kristen, we talked about this since 2010. every republican with the exception of probably a handful has campaigned from dog catcher on unup that they would do everything they could to repeal and replace obamacare. to get in and say hey, you should have done something else wouldn't be fair to the american people who said okay, i'll vote for you, but i want you to fulfill this pledge. >> finally, does the buck stop with him on this? >> like i said earlier, you can't force someone to vote a certain way. i think in the sense that has he done every single thing, has he pulled out every stop, has he called every member, tweaked every tweak, done every single thing he can possibly and used every minute of every day that's possible to get this thing through, then the answer is yes. has the team put everything out

there? have we left everything on the field? absolutely. at the end of the day, this isn't a dictatorship and we have to expect members to vote how they will according to what they think. the president made clear, they have to go back and answer to their constituents why they didn't fulfill the pledge they made. >> nonhealth care question for you. intelligence question of identifying information, about people associated with trump. if you categorically rule out that chairman nunes was received or was awarded these documents from someone at the white house? >> i'm not aware of where he got the document from. i don't know. i don't know where he got it frchlt he didn't state it. i don't have anything for you on that. and so i cannot say anything more than i don't know at this point. cecilia?

>> if the president has done everything he could possibly do and the speaker has done he can possibly do, the team has put everything on the table, who is to blame? >> let's wait and see -- i'm not assigning blame. >> you wanted a vote last night or this morning. so there is a stall. >> no, no, no. we didn't want a vote last night. as we got into the evening hours, the idea wasn't to bury this at 12:00, 1:00 in the morning. >> initially you were asking for one yesterday. >> no, no. and -- no, no. and i'm not backing away from that. we wanted a vote yesterday. but as we got -- the process went on, we realized that that vote would occur -- it probably actually into today in terms of calendar wise. and then doing at 1:00, 2:00, 3:00 in the morning is not something that would be in keeping with what we promised. >> who is to blame for the stall? the freedom caucus? >> it's not a blame. it's a question of getting these members together and dealing with -- you've seen the

activity, you've seen the members go back and forth. right now we're still in that active discussion phase of trying to figure out who we can get on board and whether or not we can move forward. we're not there yet. >> you put this ultimatum out there. is the president, right now, still confident that he can see this bill through? >> the president is confident that we have done every single thing possible, made the case, updated it, added and done everything to listen to the concerns, and to do everything that fulfills the promises that we and members have made with the american people. john? >> thank you, sean. without prejudging the outcome of the vote today but focusing on your comments and the president's, saying this would be a vote against life if people voted against it. >> right. >> several republican members said they did not want the vote on planned parenthood in this particular bill. congressman john fasso of new york was particularly outspoken.

did anything come up with the negotiation or from the white house saying they guarantee a separate vote on planned parenthood and leave it out of the bill? >> i'm not aware of that, john. i'm not aware that that happened. >> the white house, from your tone and the president's, the white house wanted the planned parenthood voted in? >> i have to go back and look at there's a lot of discussions. i can't honestly remember how that came up. >> the last two members who announced they were no, chris smith and frank, republicans of new jersey, both cited members of their district as reason. congressman lobiando said in three counties 30% of his constituents are on medicaid and he wanted no damage. was there anything discussed on medicaid? was it on the table in negotiations? >> i know that there was a

discussion of expansion in medicaid and some of the work requirements with respect to able-bodied americans who were receiving that. i would say one of the things that not member specific to either of the members from new jersey is that members have to understand the current system is unsustainable. if you vote no today, then what is your alternative? what do you want because right now there's a lot of folks that have said they're going to vote no. which is, you know, their prerogative. at the end of the day, the current obamacare system will collapse on its own. so the question that they have to ask themselves or that they are going to be asked by their constituents is what is your alternative? right now this is a choice that will save the system. the other choice is to do nothing and that will collapse the system. eamon? >> thanks, sean. stock market has been looking at business, how you're going to do on your tax reform.

can you say what the lessons learned here are about how this was handled that you might apply to the tax reform? >> eamon i'm not going to start getting into lessons learned when we're in the middle of a debate of a current bill. we'll have plenty of time if you want to stop by over the weekend, we can talk about it. glad to sit down with you on that. again, we're not -- right now we're focused on getting the votes. the house has a vote scheduled. that's what our focus is. not to figure out, you know, we'll have plenty of time for that. >> does he wash his hands of this today? >> the president is going to wash his hands several times but i don't know -- >> central campaign promise of the president of the united states. >> i understand that. i get it. so, slow down. let's -- turn on c-span and we'll all watch this together and we can discuss what happened. >> secretary mnuchin was talking about doing tax reform by the august recess. do you think that's a reasonable

timeline and why the rush? are there any lessons learned from this health care debate? >> again, tax reform is something that we've talked about. there's plenty of time. i think it's a goal and an ambitious one. and i think it's one we're going to try to stick to. but let's get by today and we'll lay it out. tax reform is something that the president is very committed to. very publicly in the last couple of open events, he has talked about how excited he is to move on once this is done to tax reform because he understands both sides of this, that the business piece of this -- we are so uncompetitive when it comes to our other worldly competitors in terms of our tax rate. and when we have these discussions about keeping companies from either shipping job s overseas or bringing back jobs, two things that come up over and over again are tax rate and our regulatory system. and i think he understands on

the tax front we can be a lot more competitive with the rest of the world in growing american jobs here at home and, frankly, expanding manufacturing if we lower that. but also that the american middle class desperately needs and wants a tax break. and the more we can do with that. that is something that we're going to be continuing to work on and will have more on that later. trey? >> how much credit will the president take for the outcome of this health care bill? >> i'm going to refer you to like the last eight people. let's see where we go from here. >> quick follow-up. is the white house still as confident as they were earlier in the week? and is the president still as confident as he was earlier in the week that this health care bill will pass? >> i would suggest to you my answer that i said to kristen, we are confident that we have done everything and it is now up to voters.

the president called for a vet and respectfully, obviously, the reason he asked speaker ryan and leader mccarthy to call for a vote is we've done everything. we've done every single thing, every meeting, every call, every discussion, every idea has been out there, adjudecated, listened to. i think it's time for the vote. we're a couple of hours away and let's see where we go. >> level of confidence remain? >> i think in the sense of what we did, yes. peter? >> the president can order every surveillance transcript that mentions himself or his associates with regards to russia and the investigation to be brought to his desk. has he done that? >> no. >> you said yesterday the concern should be less about the process and more about the substance. i ask because that would be one way to get directly to the substance. on the substance devon nunes said there was evidence that clearly showed that the

president-elect and his team were at least monitored. then today he said, asked if trump or his associates were monitored or mentioned, he said we don't know until we actually receive all the documentation. the president said he's somewhat vindicated. given the fact that chairman nunes doesn't know if he's monitored or even mentioned what is he vindicated by? >> i think there's beenance announcement out there that show that people were s. rveilled. >> they could exclusively have been foreigners, devon nunes concedes. >> he also made it clear he would have a meeting with several members of the intelligence community and calling others back. >> what is the president vindicated by? >> he said he felt somewhat vindicated because there is an acknowledgement that as we proceed down this discussion, it continues to show that there was something there. and that, despite the constant discussion about the process --

>> but he said we won't know. >> peter, i understand. i get that this is -- i understand that. he also said he's going to have a hearing, call the people back and is waiting for the documents. let's wait and let that process evolve. >> thank you, sean. couple of questions. first about keystone. what changed? it seemed like it took forever in covering the obama administration to finally get over the finish line. it never did. relatively quickly, less than 65 days in it's made its way over the finish line. what changed, especially with respect to the state department's view of the keystone xl pipeline and is it your opinion it would be good to hear from the president, win, lose or draw, after what we learn today vis-a-vis health care reform? >> simply put on keystone it was a priority. he came in, signed executive order on it. he had talked about it during the campaign. and he made it a priority. he made it a priority for his team here at the white house to get it done. thot only the jobs but

incorporating u.s. steel. there's a lot of things. i don't think it's any simpler than he made it a priority for him, his team, this administration, department of state and others and that's it. he recognizes the importance of that to both energy and to jobs in our economy and simply got it done. i'll leave it up to the president to see how that goes forward. margaret? >> as a deal maker, why does the president feel this take it or leave it approach is the right one on health care? >> because i think he has done -- i mean, at some point you listen to everybody. you've gotten no other ideas. you've gone back and forth, incorporated them, you've assuaged them and it's the same people coming back again. at some point either we have a deal or we don't. that's where the president finally drew the line and said

we've been having this discussion. we've had the meetings and we've done everything possible to address the concerns and ideas, opinions that people have brought up. and i mean, i don't think you can say it any simpler. he has done every single thing possible. you end up, at some point, find yourself going around and around and saying, okay, let's call the vote. >> isn't there a political cost to a collapse potentially? >> i think at some point there's a political cost to dragging this out as well and saying let's keep letting it go. that's where we came to a decision that it had gotten as far as it could go. >> if there's a collapse, though, isn't there a cost that the president will some point have to pay for. >> in terms of what? >> the collapse that you have been -- >> i think -- look, members -- >> besides the upcoming election in 2018, i'm talking about economic impact, all the impact

on the states. >> i get it. i think we'll have to look at the landscape. at some point democrats made a decision during this debate that they wanted to stick by obamacare. the president talked about this. this is going to collapse. and let's see where this heads. we have a plan on the table that will address all the issues that were initially brought up as far as what the affordable care act was supposed to do. >> if you know where the vote counts are right now and there's no discussion of pulling the health care bill and you get closer to 3:30 and you still don't have the vote, why vote? >> i'm not going to discuss our strateg strategy. >> you seem okay with it. >> i do. >> if you know what the votes are and know you don't have the votes why vote? >> i understand your question. i'm not going to comment on our strategy. the president and the speaker

are going to have a discussion about where those votes are and what the members' needs are and take it from there. athena? >> you talked about all the work that the president put into this, early morning calls, late calls. one of the congressmen here to meet with the president, mchenry, said we're calling him the closer. you embraced that nickname from the podium. whatever happens today, do you still feel confident calling the president the closer when it comes to deal making? >> i said it to kristen and a couple of others. he has done everything possible. there's no one on capitol hill or any honest observer that doesn't recognize the extraordinary feats. this isn't a one-on-one negotiation. you have to get to 216. part that have question is to go to the nos and say what is the reason and what would you do?

the problem is that there's this balancing act. to get these two members, you're giving up 14. but we're doing everything possible to get to that 216. and i don't -- i think when you actually objectively look at the effort that was undertaken there's no question that every single thing that has been done has been done to maximize the vote count on this. >> and to be very, very clear -- it's been asked a few times but i want a clear answer. you talked about how this is the chance, the opportunity for republicans to make good on campaign promises. >> yeah. >> asked the president a couple of days ago what happened if you keep pushing and this fails today. he said we'll have to wait and see what happens. are you saying right now there will be no future attempts to comply with that campaign promise if today's attempt fails? >> i can't say that there will never be. i'm not going to be fatalistic. we have a vote at 3:30. the president has made it clear, this is the train that's leaving

the station and expects everyone -- this is our opportunity. he has a lot left on the agenda that he wants to get done, whether it's immigration, taxes, the border wall. there's so many other things that he wants to get done that we're not going to sit around and figure out -- this is the opportunity. this is the time. this is the opportunity for every member who has said that they want to repeal and replace obamacare to put their vote in the yes column. >> if it does pass today, you talked about this being done in three phases. phase two and phase three, one of the problems is that this is not information that is in scorable form, the steps that secretary price might take and what may end up in this final bill. >> i don't know yet. at some point -- >> can you -- something that's attempted to be done. that's the kind of -- >> we're focused right now on the vote. i think we'll have omb or cbo take a look at not just the

other elements but can you look at it in its totality. i don't know but that's a good question that i can have the omb folks address potentially with the cbo folks. thank you, guys. i'm sure we'll have additional updates today. thank you. all right. white house press secretary sean spicer wrapping up, arguably, very important daily press conference. most of them were about health care, spicer saying the president has, indeed, worked closely with speaker ryan to get repeal and replace of obamacare passed. outcome is far from certain right now. what appeared to be a moment of resignation, spicer added whatever happens happens. even if it fails, it should not impact the president's upcoming efforts, specifically around tax reform. i would say it was sot of a -- i don't want to say conciliatory tone but not as combative as one may have thought. >> he tried hard not to be conciliatory. he kept saying, wait. we have to see what the vote is. we're optimistic. you're all assuming.

>> and certainly the press -- they kept asking the same question in multiple literations. it was very obvious to me -- we talk about it online here. why americans look at the media and go, what are they doing? what are they thinking there? >> yeah. >> because it was -- come on! he said what he was going to say. the vote hasn't taken place. let's wait to talk about lessons learned until we know. >> and it was so repettive, over and over. >> oh, my goodness. >> as if they're trying to trip him up. >> 20 variations of the same question. >> yes. >> we would have done it much better. >> absolutely. >> of course. >> we're going to take a very short break. lot going on. things are fluid. market is waiting for vote. we're waiting for the vote. the press is waiting for the vote. you're waiting for the vote.

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hi, everybody.

welcome to the second hour of "power lunch." along with michelle and brian, i am tyler mathisen a little over two hours till the closing bell and possibly a key vote on capitol hill. you're look at a live picture of the house floor. can lawmakers get a deal done? a vote is expected eed in abou hours or so. number of stocks could be impacted by this vote. we'll game out the scenarios most especially for the hospital stocks. and would a no vote mark the end of a trump rally? or can stocks keep on rallying? nasdaq is higher, you see there. the dow modestly lower. latest on where the vote stands on the health care bill, mark wayne mullen, member of the republican whip team. sir, good to have you on power lunch again. >> thanks for having me on michelle. good to be with you. >> you're a member of the whip team. you're supposed to be whipping up the votes and instead you're

talking to us. does that mean you're optimistic or you've given up? >> i'm a glass half full type guy. we're trending in the right direction. i think at the end of the day we understand when we get there we're either going to support the republican president that was elected, mr. donald trump, or we're going to stay with the failed policy of barack obama that's happened over the last eight years. that's what our members are facing. we negotiated in good faith and talked to all of our members, allowed them to present our ideas. there has to be a happy medium. we've done all we can and now is our time to keep our promise to the american people and either repeal and replace the aca. >> will there be a vote at 3:30 regardless? >> as it stands now. the president made it very clear he wants a vote today. we have told our members we are

going to vote today and pass our fail, we're going to go in there. around 3:30. >> knowing you don't have the nos online, you're willing to do it? >> we're willing to make people put their vote up. like i said, we're either going to stand with the republican-elected president, mr. president donald trump or keep with the failed policy of barack obama over the last eight years. that's what the choice comes to. here is a trivia question for the day. when was the last time a perfect bill has ever came out of congress? it doesn't happen. we're always negotiating and because we all come from different districts and we all have different ideas. when we come to the final bill and put the best bill we could possibly come forward, which is what we've done, we bring it to the floor and let the voters decide.

>> if you're going to let a vote happen even if you don't have the votes, do i understand -- historically, if you don't have the votes often the bill doesn't come to the floor. is this strategy to make those nos very apparent so their constituents know they voted against this? >> no. i believe we're dealing with a president who doesn't come from a typical political idea. he's a negotiator. he goes in and closes deals. and, yes, it upcally, over the last four years i've been here working, especially since i've been a deputy whip, we don't like to go to the floor and lose. we want to go there, make sure typically we have the 218 because of the members that went over to the trump administration we're at 216 today but we want to know it's there. right now we're going to put the vote up and let people, like i said, choose which president they're going to stand with. >> congressman do you or any of your colleagues believe that the outcome of this vote in any way is determineative what happens with immigration or tax retorm?

>> absolutely not. >> why not? >> this is an emotional personal vote for each of our members, unlike any vote i've ever worked on. this isn't talking about infrastructure, tax reform. health care is personal to everybody. and so when we go to the floor, regardless of if you're a democrat, republican, moderate or ultra conservative, this is a personal vote. >> can you explain -- >> different than any vote we've ever done. >> it does appear that the gop is somewhat fractured, the freedom caucus and the rest of the gop. why should america or our cnbc audience believe that you can come together over anything now? >> i totally disagree with the idea that we're fractured. lock, look, a frk oklahoma like myself having completely different ideas from republicans from california or new york, we make decisions based on how we're raised and life experiences. i've said that before. all we're seeing are the ideas. what we want to do is put this

back in the hands of the american people. >> sir, it sure looks fractured. it looks like the freedom caucus -- >> group within a group. >> what happened to the democrat party between sanders and hillary clinton? you guys looked fractured, too, the democrat party did. this is individuals. every member up here is elected to be a leader. you have leaders on the house floor. 430 plus of us, all of us leaders over roughly 700,000 constituents. it's normal we would have ideas and it's normal that we would choose to have an open discussion. that's what we're doing. we're having an open discussion. >> after all, this is how democracy works. >> it is. absolutely. >> let me pose this question to you. what occurs to me is that a minority of the majority is deciding what happens. >> no. we have two groups that have done their best to make this

bill better. i sat through the 17 hour, 1 18-minute markup, we were presenting the bill out of the markup and opened it up for the floor, opened it up to the members to bring their ideas and bring amendments forward. so regardless if you're a part of the freedom caucus or the tuesday group or those in the middle, all of us had an idea to try to make this bill better. you've seen the president, speaker ryan, leader mccarthy and our whip, all of them work diligently to make everybody's voice have an opportunity to be heard. at the end of the day if you have an idea and you can't pu the votes on the board -- in this case it's 216 -- all it is is an idea. you've got to have your colleagues support your idea. >> underneath the screen we're saying represent mullin: trending yes on health care bill votes. what is trending yes? can you give us a number? >> no, i can't give you a number. we're moving in the right

direction. i've been speaking to people the last few days. people are moving off of no and undecided and people that are undecided are moving to yes. let me tell you, every time we make a change to the bill we also lose people that were at a yes or leaning yes and they've moved to a no. the idea is, do we gain more yeses or do we lose more people? right now we're trending in the right direction. >> representative, thank you for joining us on such a pivotal and busy day for you. >> thanks. >> representative mullin from oklahoma. >> thanks for having me on. how big is the vote today on repealing obamacare? we've been asking repeatedly and naturally, what does it mean for the trump agenda more broadly? with the american enterprise institute, and jared bernstein with the center on budget priorities. you guys know each other, right? >> we're good friends. >> i know you are. jimmy, what -- aren't these different agenda items,

separable, except in the sense, as larry lindsey pointed out and another earlier that, yes, that the idea is here there are tax things in this health care bill that makes tax reform an easier solve? >> listen, spicer said himself that passing health care first opened up fiscal room to do bigger tax cuts, all right? if health reform fails -- >> makes it harder, but doesn't destroy it? >> yeah. listen, makes it harder to do a bigger tax plan. listen, it is an existential issue. failure makes them smaller but failure to pass this border adjustment provision, very complicated and they just failed passing something complicated, if they don't do the border adjustment, that tax plan gets even smaller. the bottom line here is if health care fails, the odds of

creating a big stimulus plan have gone down. >> jared, you see it that way or even more in more dire terms? >> well, i think that jimmy is trying to get at a very important point that underscores this aspect of the debate. it's a technical point that markets are starting to really clue in on. that's the idea that these things are infineteely connected for the reason that you now have to hit a higher revenue target on your tax reform plan. if they are able to pass or are able to pass the tax cuts in their health reform plan in a sense they have to fill a smaller glass of water with revenue. revenue baseline or target gets a lot lower, about $1 trillion. >> have you done the math? they were targeting 20. do you have to go to 25, 22? >> something closer to 25.

>> jared, listen. >> in gdp terms, they might have been shooting for something between two and four percent of gdp ultimately in terms of tax cuts. >> corporations and individuals -- >> they don't get the health care plan. they don't get this. they also don't get the other complicated thing they're trying to do with this border swruch . adjustment. you're going to get back to what the obama administration was proposing, something closer to a 30% corporate tax rate and then, you know, that's less than satisfying. >> jimmy, it's interesting. i guess the dirty little secret is that even if this does pass we have this thing called the senate which may pass it on for a few months. health care will be far from over, even if it does pass, i assume. jimmy, there's a growing sort of thought. texts you get, people you talk to. they kind of suggest -- i hate

to say this. with everything the way it is right now, is maybe gridlock again nothing getting done maybe the better outcome here, jimmy? economically? >> i don't think so. >> wage is up. >> no. listen, economy can be doing better than 2% growth. that's going to require deep structural changes. not just tax cuts and deregulation. not to mention huge wave of entitlement spending coming. we need to do things. gridlock, certainly longer term. i don't have a three-month price forecast. gridlock is not good for the long-term prospects of this country or this economy sbl fair enough. >> can i answer that? >> sure. go ahead. >> let me have a stab at that. i think that the point that you're making when you say we actually have a nice-looking economy, it would be be awful if something happened to it. maybe gridlock is okay. i think where that doesn't make

sense has to do with health care. and i'll put my democratic hat on now. i don't want 24 million people to lose health care coverage. i don't think that's good for the economy. i certainly don't think that's good for those people. i don't want to lose some of the cost advantages beginning to come from -- >> jared, we have to go. i agree with it. >> i think that -- let me just say. my point is that gridlock is actually a friend to people who want to keep affordable coverage. >> agree with that. health care aside, the point i was trying to make was that rather than right shoulder through something incomplete, which as this may be -- i don't know. >> i don't see this as a 17% approval rating, which is bizarre. how does anybody approve anything they've never read? >> to my policy i/s and ears i don't see anything that this administration is proposing that will help the economy. on that regard i don't think much is lost. >> that is your democratic hat. >> my economist hat as well.

>> it's a beret, democratic hat. >> it is not. >> jimmy has a top hat and and a monacle. three things we think can happen, it passes, it fails or never gets voted on. we'll rewalk through what many believe the markets will do.

welcome back. the big health care vote will be happening, we believe, this afternoon. we are faced with the question with what all this means for you and your money. we will take another look at the three scenarios we laid out yesterday. number one, health care bill passes. that sends stocks higher. bonds probably fall. scenario two, it fails. they vote and it does not pass. stocks fall off and bonds probably rally. scenario three, they don't have enough votes, punt until monday or next week. no vote at all could send stocks

lower because it sends the confidence that this will possibly never get done. mainstay investments and portfolio manager at alpine funds. charles, and mark, thank you very much. your both longer term investors. >> right. >> i want you to answer honestly but don't destroy the entire purpose of this segment. do you care about the vote? >> of course we care about the vote. but if you really think about it, we have a bull market that's eight years old. we've had this health care system in place for seven years of those eight years. and so there's going to be another day. we think that there are opportunities with both the equity market and fixed income market. >> if it fails do you sell stocks? >> no. >> if it passes do you buy stocks? >> either way you want lean into this. if it passes we'll move on to the pro-business part of the agenda, tax cuts, consumer, beneficial for consumer discretionary stocks. on the back end of the economy, infrastructure spending, ben

fshl for industrials. and then, of course, there's the rolling back of regulations. which that all together leads to pick up in the pace of economic growth. we think it's good for small cap stocks, which have a high exposure. >> if there's been any lesson to me over the last year -- michelle i think you echo this -- what we all thought were the scenarios that would unsp l unspool -- >> markets going to go down. >> market is going to plummet. brexit. >> hedged them all. >> i don't know either. >> we don't know. you get what i'm driving at. >> you have to get back down -- i don't want to say sideshow but

look at the economy the same sort of way. what's the economy doing? a lot of optimism. earnings are better. that's what we're concentrating on. i don't necessarily think -- i don't think we're going to hear the last of health care if this turns away. >> larry k. dl kudlow would say repeal would be good for the economy. >> i'm not so sure. >> there were tons of taxes. medical devices, all kinds of places. >> but the worst thing the market dislikes is uncertainty. and i think that would put in too much of a dose of uncertainty into the market. but i think there is an end game and as a stock picker, there will be opportunity to purchase stocks in the health care sector, in the financial sector, energy sector if, in fact, we get worried that the timeline here is two years and not two months. >> if we don't get corporate tax

reform -- gl that wou >> that would be the biggest problem. >> that's a problem, right? >> why? >> not so much because of the health care bill but the other measures that -- >> corporate tax reform. >> profits would go up. >> they would have more bankable profits. >> that's right. the economy is growing. profits are growing. could they grow faster if we get a bit more stimulus? yes. that's what the market is discounting, the likelihood that would happen. if the bill doesn't pass, if there were some savings that could have been applied to the budget process, and the infrastructure is supposed to happen after that, gary cohn has started to get together agencies. they have a list from the governorships of both parties, partnerships they would like to take care of. this is still going to happen. the question is how smoothly does it happen and does the timeline get delayed or a little more uncertainty happen and a couple of days delayed? >> i know you've talked about deregulation, too. that's a real cash cost savings

and margin expansion for it. as far as health care is concerned, the tax, to your point, tax deregulation -- >> fully intended, mark. deregulation should be easy, though, right? >> it's happening. >> it's happening. >> that didn't have to be voted on. >> if that's the thing the market wants the most, everything else is gravy. that's the steak. i don't know who eats steak with gravy but you get my point. deregulation is something that everybody agrees on. and it requires cutting things out rather than putting things in. >> put some meat on the bone section. market has gone up because of that. and now we're in the show me stage, i think, in market. that's what this is a little bump in the road, i tend to believe. what's the new regulation, what's the impact on energy? >> realistic expectations. that kind of environment with occasional bouts of volatility. >> global pmis continue.

so i think -- >> don't worry too much is what you're say sfwlg don't worry too much. >> everybody relax. >> chill. >> thanks, guys. >> sure. >> charles and mark. debate still going on, on the floor. we keep showing you live pkts of the floor of the house of representatives where they are debating this afternoon's vote on the health care bill. most of them look pretty decided, don't they? since we still don't know what's going to happen, we are looking at all the possibilities and what they will mean for stocks. >> up next, we'll talk about hospital stocks.

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cowen and company out with a note cutting the odds of the passage of this bill to 55% from 70%. they were at 70%. they're growing less optimistic. the stock market is down. it's not responding that negatively. me thinkst the market may be becoming a little okay with a no vote because of what we just talked about. maybe the market is disattaching this from anything else trump or the gop want to do. >> and trying to maintain optimism about this not seemingly anything related to when or not they'll be able to

get corporate tax reform done, far more important we've heard from many analysts. >> removing an entitlement or removing a benefit that people have received is an extraordinarily difficult thing to coalesce on. >> the big debate is concerns about people who were granted medicaid. >> medicaid, absolutely sbl and now could potentially lose it. >> that's the key. >> we heard one congressman who has 30% of his constituents on medicaid and you're going to tell those people they can't have it anymore? he's worried about not getting re-elected. >> i was a political science major in college. i had a d minus average but promising to give people stuff not promise to take things away is how you get elected. >> that's a-plus analysis. >> are you watching, professor? i'm sitting here now. >> we're going to take a break. >> we'll talk about hospital stocks on the other side.

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hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. prince charles visiting victims of the london terror attacks at the hospital. five victims are still being treated. four people were killed. 50 injured in that attack. bird strike forcing an american airlines plane to halt it's takeoff from laguardia airport in new york. it returned to the gate where crew members removed the bird remains from the swrin. no injuries were reported. former penn state football coach jerry sandusky arriving for a hearing. his attorneys are fighting to get his sexual assault charges dismissed or retrial. when asking how he's feeling, he said, i have a pulse, end quote. spacewalk by nasa astronaut

and esa astronaut expected to last six hours or so. that's the news update this hour. i'll send it back to you. space taxis. wow! >> i can't wait. >> exciting. >> thanks, sue. >> you're welcome. the house debating the final version of the health care bill. let's get to bertha coombs happens a look at some of the health care stock. >> it's kind of an contraindication. hospitals and medicaid players are moving higher as we count down to the vote this afternoon. talk a look at medicaid players, in particular. centene, molina health have rallied as the passage for the bill has dimed. molina and wellcare are off about 12%. hospital stocks are rallying for a third day. keybank notes that community health and tenet, biggest movers

have very high short interests but the shorts have gotten squeezed. hca is seen as the best of the bunch to weather the changes. it was up for the week going into this morning. take a look what's happened here to community health. take a look at that one-week chart of community health, if we have it. it was down for the week coming into the day and it is now positive. it has been a huge move back up. if you were short that stock, you really got hurt this week. back to you. >> clearly optimistic that the bill won't pass. there it is, reversing. >> yep. >> thanks so much. let us dive a little deeper into the hospital sector, the one sector most impacted stockwise. keybank capital markets, jason, i look at my screen and see tenets, hcas of the world up, investors in those names are betting that there's going to be a no vote because isn't a no vote or no vote at all, i guess, ever, the best outcome for the

hospital stocks? >> certainly, brian. and i think that's exactly what's happening. i want to correct something on community health and tenet. the reason they've been so volatile is not due to the short interest but high levels of debt. certainly the bill that they're voting on in the house today would be very negative for the hospital industry. at the same time it does not eliminate the medicare rate cuts that the hospital industry had given when obamacare was passed. >> you don't cover the insurance names, just want to make sure i have that right. >> no. >> all the major insurers are down right now. all the major hospital managed stocks are up right now. if nothing changes from today on forward, does that remain a good investing strategy, buy the hospital stocks and ignore the insurers? which you probably can't comment

on. >> when you say nothing changes, are you saying that the bill dies in the house? >> this repeal act fails, nothing new comes out and the way things have been for seven years is the way things continue in perpetuity for health care. >> within the hospital group there's select opportunities. you do have to be aware with some of these companies there's high levels of debt. we're seeing a difference in the performance of rural base versus urban based hospitals. revenue growth at the urban hops is much stronger. the two that we are recommending have moderate levels of debt as well as, in the case of hca, fairly stable volumes and in the case of uhs, strong volumes. >> jason gurda, thank you. a few hours away, presumably, from the vote to repeal and replace obamacare. let's talk to an individual who knows what it takes to pass a bill like this, as complicated as this.

democratic minority whip steny hoyer, live from capitol hill. long-time representative of maryland. thank you for being with us. we appreciate it. >> good to be with you. >> take us back to, what was it, 2010 when health care passed in the house and the senate as well, the obamacare bill did. it was just as tight a vote, it seems, as this one. what happened then? what went on in the hours before that vote and what's going on now? >> first i was the majority leader and the whip, mr. cleyburne, the speaker nancy pelosi and i were confident we had the votes to pass our bill. it was because we worked at it over a very long period of time, over a year and a half that we had worked on the bill, listened to people, gotten their input, seen the places where they had concern, addressed those concerns, talked to the community, had really hundreds

of witnesses come in from around the country, experts as well as laypeople. so, we had done a lot of work. this bill, you understand, was introduced two weeks ago. this bill had -- was marked up 36 hours after it was introduced and this bill has been brought to the floor some ten, 12 days after it was marked up. they simply have not taken the time to create a bill that does what they said they were going to do. what the president said was he was going to bring a bill to the congress that gave insurance to everybody, lowered the cost and increased quality. of course, the president has offered no bill. this bill is -- was put together, in my opinion, very, very rapidly. was not given any hearings. no witnesses testified. and when you do something that rapidly and that haphazardly,

you're going to have trouble. >> did obamacare pass the house with any gop house? >> no. zero. >> zero, correct? >> zero. >> would you expect that any democrat will vote for this bill today? >> no. i will tell you this. there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the majority of members of the house of representatives oppose this bill. now they may oppose it for different reasons but there is no doubt in my mind that the majority of members oppose this bill. now they may have their arms twisted and they may ultimately say uncle, but the fact of the matter is if the -- when the vote is called and the members express their honest vote, this bill will fail. >> sir, if it fails -- let's say they give up on it and we have obamacare. obamacare is failing in many places. you're going to have to live with constituents who are getting to the point where they don't have anybody offering them

health insurance on the exchanges or only one choice. then what? you have a system that is still collapsing. >> let me go back to -- we got zero votes when we passed the affordable care act. >> because they thought it would collapse sbl hold on. s-chip, for instance, is working very well. we could not get a compromised vote on s-chip. we passed children's health insurance when we took the majority. the fact of the matter is that we're prepared to work with our republican colleagues. the affordable care act is not working perfectly. we understand that. no bill that has as large an impact works perfectly. we need to keep working on it. we need to work on the small markets. we need to work on small businesses and their ability to afford and have affordable care act and, yes, we need to work on competition. what we don't need to do is enact a bill, which has 24 million people losing insurance,

which has seniors in the age of group of 50 to 64 having to pay three, four, five times what they're paying now and have a bill which will create 52 million uninsured in the next nine years. >> you said earlier if left to their own sort of inclination and devices, the majority of the house would vote against this bill. >> absolutely. >> but you said that there's arm twisting going on. obviously arms and other body parts are being twisted here. >> right. >> do you think the thing is going to pass when it comes to a vote? >> i hope not. i don't count republican votes so i don't know what the answer to that is. i do know and i will guarantee you, no democrat will vote for this bill because they believe it undermines access to affordable quality health care. that's not because they believe the affordable care act is perfect but we think it's working and frankly the republicans have taken every effort they can to make sure

that it doesn't work. we ought to work together and make sure that america has the kind of health care security that it needs and wants. >> can i jump in real quick? i apologize. producer is here. i asked this of the republicans, too. no republicans voted for obamacare. critical to them of that. no democrats will vote on this. you guys are so fractured. give us a reason before you go why americans should have any faith in congress at all. >> i think americans should be disgusted with congress. >> thank you. because i am. >> i don't blame you. i'm disgusted with congress. i've been here 36 years. very frankly, i have been known as somebody who can work on consensus. george bush, if president george bush was standing here, he would say we didn't always agree but where we agreed steny hoyer and i were able to work together and it was important i passed a number of initiatives i put forward. i have done it, i'm prepared to do that. it's not just rhetoric. we haven't seen our republican

colleagues willing to do that and did not cooperate with the obama administration on anything. >> we have to leave it there. congressman hoyer, thank you for your time. >> you bet. >> thank you. let's get reaction to what congressman hoyer just said. joining us, is libby cantrell and michael hesses with morgan stanley. it doesn't look hopeful, does it? >> it doesn't. our view is that health care is going to be a heavy lift regardless. it took obama 14 months to actually pass obamacare. he had higher margins in both chambers of congress, higher approval rating and unanimity with what to do with health care. this was introduced 14 days ago. what's transpiring in washington is not too surprising to us. >> michael, does this mean it's that much harder to do corporate tax reform or does it give a

reason, impetus for republicans to do something and then come together? >> tax reform issue comes down to timing and content. i would press that we shouldn't pay attention to the vote as much as what the reaction is from the republicans afterwards. are they going to fish or cut bait? and if the reaction is to move on to tax reform, then the timing aspect might not be pushed back that much. the other problem here is on the content. because the fiscal hawks have been able to assert themselves on this issue it does suggest that the next battle on tax reform might not be as kind on content to the markets in that ultimately tax reform has to conform to being deficit neutral, potentially including pay fors like border tax, limitations to corporate interest deduction, that's probably not going to conform to some of the more optimistic market expectations.

>> libby, you're nodding. >> yeah, i am nodding. health care is really complex. tax reform, maybe just as complex. tax reform is an incredibly complicated issue. you've seen that with discussions around border adjustment tax, interest deductiblity. these are difficult things to do. so i think that tyler, push comes to shove, you get smaller tax deal. probably tax reform lite that will likely have -- >> is that 20%, 25%, 30%? >> look, this is all speculation. it's all very early -- >> that's why -- >> maybe, libby -- >> don't feel bad, libby. >>y think it's going to be 20%. 20% is predicated on included the border adjustment tax and to michael's point i think there will be less appetite to have a big -- 25%. >> tax reform in the '80s took

three years. we live in a twitter, moment by moment, minute-by-minute day. should congress go dark? get off tv. go away for six months. come up with something. write a package. every congressman is so scared of their constituents or so chained up by this immediate atmosphere that, to your point, why should we rewrite a health care bill in a couple of months? it's impossible. most of our viewers don't realize these congressman have never wrote it or written it. it's written by their staffers, junior staffers. tens of thousands of pages long. >> by lobbyists. it's written by lobbyists. >> we're expecting this stuff to be done right away xwchlt away for a year. >> as a former congressional staffer -- >> didn't even know that. i inadvertently insulted. >> you no, no, it's unrealistic to think that health care would

have gotten done by an april recess. it's too difficult, too complex. and the market should take this as a lesson for tax reform. it's complicated. it should be deliberate. it should take a long time. >> sounds like it's going to be deliberate and it may well take a longer time. michael, let me turn back to you with an off-the-wall idea. >> okay. >> do you remember when president trump was talking about health care and said on multiple occasions, the best thing i could do politically would be just to do mnothing about obamacare and let it fall of its own weight. that may be what's happening. is there an argument to be made that health care reform actually becomes more possible later than it is today as obamacare, if the president is right -- and he has been right on a lot of stuff -- if obamacare does, in fact, collapse of its own weight? >> unfortunately, i think there's a lot of ifs in that statement. hypothetically -- first thing

is, if you allow this opportunity to pass on the affordable care act, then you have to use regular order instead of budget reconciliation to get health care passed later. that requires getting eight democrats to cross the aisle in the senate. so, i think the assumption, the big "if" is obviously if the aca is failing to the degree that republicans are saying. perhaps that becomes possible. but i think it's really too early to tell if that's a meaningful strategy or not. >> if you have to get democrats to go along with their constituents, premiums are going up year after year after year, they, too, will feel compelled to do something. >> all roads, with me lead to hamilton. >> we need him now. >> we need hamilton. you remember that point at which jefferson said hamilton had designed a financial structure that was so complicated, he could never undo it. he could never undo it. >> despite his best efforts,

right? >> despite his best efforts. i'll let that thought sit. >> our efforts now are sto say good-bye. michael, thank you. libby, thank you. >> most congressmen are lawyers. >> that's the problem. >> they don't put other lawyers out of business. >> s&p 500 turned a little negative. everybody is watching this vote. "power lunch" will be right back. jooirksd

welcome back. live picture of the floor of the house of representatives where they are debating the health care bill. scheduled to happen within the next hour. right now, all signs point to a no vote. but it ain't over till it's over. in the meantime, let's show you what's going on with the markets. been hugging generally positive, but moving into negative territory as we get closer to what one member of the house told us, they'll have a vote at 3:30 or sometime thereafter regardless of whether or not they have the votes and they think it will pass. they want everybody to say out loud what they think. stay tuned to cnbc to see how it all plays out.

watching the health care vote today. the big vote supposed to happen in the house of representatives. tax reform also a big topic for the trump agenda today. treasury secretary steven mnuchin making headlines earlier today with axios. >> you've famously said that we

have had tax reform by congress's august recess. is that still the case? >> i'd like to think so. what i've said all along is this is optimistic. this is a big challenge, but we're going to try to get it done on that period of time. if we don't, we'll get it done right afterwards. it is a big priority. >> michael len did that interview. he's with axios. he joins us from washington. >> michelle, thank you. >> that didn't sound that convincing to me. >> no, i don't think he was convinced himself and i started out by asking him what we can learn for tax reform from health care. you've had a great conversation about that this afternoon here on "power lunch." and we saw in his thinking the exact tug of war that's going on at this moment between the white house and the leadership. the white house, the administration is thinking of these issues as separate. he's saying we've been, working on tax reform separately. he even told me, he said, well,

health care is very complicated. michelle, we're born when we had health care -- tax reform last time. it's such a mess. it hits every constituency. and tax reform isn't complicated? he said, no, tax reform is simpler because he was -- >> ahhh. >> exactly. because he's focusing on the goodies, but you well know, your viewers well know that for each goody, like there's something that gets lost. so axios is about to go up with a post explaining the tug of war going on between the two ends of pennsylvania avenue. the house republican leadership feels strongly that they're better off to pull the bill, that they don't want this big loss. the white house is using classic deal team logic and their logic is, deals always die several times before they're done, but somebody who's very involved in this fight just explained to me, that's not true here, that there's so much psychology

wrapped up in this vote that it's woven through the future trump agenda, including, of course, tax reform first and foremost. >> what about the border adjustment tax? we keep hearing different things from different people. when he was on cnbc he wouldn't say one way or the other how he, steven mnuchin, treasury secretary felt about it. did he endorse the border adjustment tax today with you? >> no, he certainly didn't, michelle. >> did he say he doesn't like it? >> he's repeatedly said they like some things, they don't like some things. i said, that is not a warm embrace and that is definitely the message that house republicans, including speaker ryan are taking from the white house. the white house before this health care mess this week didn't want to get there with the rhyme. you look at the math. the math doesn't work for the border adjustment tax in the

senate because of the important retail states including arkansas, the heads of walmart. michelle, what i asked the secretary today is say i work or shop at walmart, explain to me why the border adjustment tax could be good for me? and that's the problem with him, michelle, is these members can't explain it. >> right. it's definitely problematic. tyler has a question for you. >> i asked congressman mullen a few minutes ago whether there was the minority of the majority was calling the shots here. he didn't want to go there. do you see it that way? >> well, what we have here is the president saying that they need to go ahead and -- go ahead and take this loss. you saw that between the lines of the spicer briefing that we saw on your air when he said that there -- he pointed out and i have not heard them say this before, that there's also a price to letting this drag out. so that is why the immediate timing decision is made.

your question about who's driving the policy. yes, it's always that way because there are these crucial groups that can be moved with a person or two. >> we're playing the music, that means we've got to go. >> the oscar and music. happy weekend. >> michael lan of axios. i'm in vests and as a vested investor in vests, i invest with e*trade, where investors can investigate and invest in vests... or not in vests. this is my retirement. retiring retired tires. and i never get tired of it. are you entirely prepared to retire? plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement with e*trade. ( ♪ ) i moved upstate because i was interested in building a career. i came to ibm to manage global clients

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as of this moment, there's going to be a vote. it's going to be in a half hour time. >> as the outcome is looking less likely. the dow is down. >> thank you so much for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" is right now. you can't miss the vote so stay tuned. hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> wow. here we go. i'm bill griffeth. this could be it. the house expected to begin voting on the gop health care bill in about 30 minutes. the voting will begin. president trump saying he wants the vote to happen today despite continued reports that there are not yet enough votes to pass it. we are all watching capitol hill. we're watching the white house and the potential market reaction with the dow down right now 70 points at the lows of the session.