s.e.c. and everything else, it's a lot harder to do these things. it won't be such a focus as it was before. deregulation in general, and dodd/frank and everything else, there will be less of a focus on it. there might not such a bad thing if other areas are hit. >> thank you for being here. "fast money" starts now. >> "fast money" starts right now. the dow today down nearly 200 points. the markets clawing their way back. the dow and s&p did close modestly lower, while the nasdaq ended the day in the green. eighth down day. believe it or not that is the longest losing streak since 2011. it seems like the pullback may never come. may we call this now the teflon trump rally, and should investors be buying any market dips. steve, what do you think? >> we're really close to the

highs, all-time highs. when you allocate what is the trump related rally and what's not the trump related rally, you have to look at it as a percentage. i look at the move. if i look at what led today, health care led, materials led. when you look at 80% of that movement, if you take out 80% of that move, we trade down to the 200-day moving average. do you think that's going to happen? not judging how this market is bought. i think we're missing something. and i'll say i'm missing something. this market is bought. time and time again. in the face of what it should be sold. so i don't understand it. last week they had every reason, and every time to sell it, and they didn't do it. today it bounced technically off a round of a 50-day moving average. i think people are flying blind. ultimately they're buying. >> i think the loss of leadership of the bank stocks is really troubling. i think the fact on the first down day last tuesday when the

market was down 1.2% or so. over 105 days or something like that. not only did it break a streak, but it also broke the uptrend from the november lows. i think technically it is significant. it may get back, you're right. it may get back to the trend. but if it fails at that trend, it's a great opportunity for traders to short them. >> listen to all the market strategists come on all day long. no, no, we want to wait for the crush. buy down 5%. 1%. not enough. it never comes. what do you do? >> i think people are running from that view in the last couple of days. but on some level it's kind of fair. part of the view is, i'm going to wait to get some policy implemented. but i want to see earnings. if anything, you've blown an opportunity to maybe get aggressive tax reform in. it sets back expectations on tax reform which is really the most important thing we're getting the whole time. the appeal of the aca -- i said

on this show that there's a lot of support in the community for at least a modification here. but what we were voting on last week isn't something that will really help the market. you go back to the trade, and i agree with dan, i don't think you'll see financials. i actually think financials were not necessarily rallying on dramatic reform. i think financials were starting to rally on the fact that the economy is picking up industrial speed. big cap tech looks interesting to me and foreign markets with the weaker dollar. >> it's now been trending lower for a while now. if you're bullish, you have a lot of things to be encouraged by today. the russell still holds one-third of the wbm. the thing that stuck out to me the most was the vix. the vix closed down 3.5% today. after trading up probably close to 10% earlier in the day.

so the vix is telling you that, you know what, the bulls are still in charge. goldman sachs traded down where it topped out at in 2015. there are a lot of things encouraged by if you're bullish. yet we still sort of trend sideways to lower. >> you keep saying tax reform is the most important thing. without that repeal, you lose half of your dollars. to make this a revenue neutral tax policy. you lose a lot of the buck shot, or real oomph behind your tax reform policy. unless they do something really creative. that's my point. the market should know that and it's not selling off. >> you mentioned large-cap tech. think about what's looking so far this year, the stuff that was working last year right up to the election. that doesn't make me feel more comfortable about it. so when you think about the rotations that we've seen, we've seen the transports lose a lot of the oomph.

industrials and financials down. i don't like the rotation out of the trump trades, if you want to call them, in november and december. to me, i think you have a technical setup where you have a break of trend, a lack of momentum despite the low volatility readings. i don't think it actually sets up, given the -- >> well, what's different is what happened last week. >> you have a president who's no longer the deal guy or whatever. he's been unsuccessful. that's just a fact. i think we're going to get a really strong sense of the next few weeks when companies give q2 guidance, okay? >> i agree, but -- >> i have a question. so in q1, in the conference call, did a lot of companies say we're positive about -- we're going to factor into our -- >> no. >> if it's not factored in -- >> if you just went through the period we had, and you're in a company that actually is looking to benefit from the three things we talked about, and you have no clarity on it, yur guidance is

going to reflect that in the stock market. you would be a fool to go out there and be overly optimistic. >> think about the things that were working before the election, though. you had a lot of trades that i think were a synchronized global growth story. the fact that central banks are pulling back around the world is a double-edged sword. it tells you that we're in an environment where inflation is working. that's actually what people want to see. i'm very happy to see prices higher. that's good. >> earnings season will be good or bad for where we are right now in the markets? >> i think earnings will be good. i'm not sure they'll be good enough to keep the market going at its trajectory high. better than we've seen. i'm not certain it's going to be enough, though, to get us over the hump. we're still at critical levels here. i'm actually of the inclination that the earnings might twist us the other way. >> have we mattered yet? >> no, they haven't yet. you're 100% right. >> a great example, a company

that's right in the middle of all the stuff we're talking about. this is a company that would be massively adversely affected by a back, right? they gave guidance. and the stock was down. >> but it's come right back. >> a company getting beaten on north america, a lot of the trends in for business, unrelated to the mac. earnings of the season defines -- >> but you bring up a great point. you talk about back tax, i think that's off the table. if you look at everything that happened last week -- >> it is already in trouble. >> it's going to be incredibly watered down. and you're not going to get that revenue. if anything we saw last week is any indication, that's off the table. you've got to buy xrt. >> more on the teflon trump rally.

terry, always good to see you. >> good to see you guys again. >> i'm sure you're getting the phone calls. hey, terry, i'm waiting for this correction in the overall market, and it's never coming. what do i do? >> it's not a screaming buy right now. i heard you talking about it in the opening. we're off 2.5% from the all-time high. we're half a unit off in terms of pes, forward price to earnings. i think we're at the point now in the cycle where you have to say, okay, i'm not buying or looking to match the market, but what sectors are you buying in the market. >> we have, quote unquote, many corrections within sectors and stocks. transports have been hit very hard. banks have been hit hard. what are you telling people to buy right now? >> we actually got more favorable in the energy sector. we've been looking at this for a couple of weeks now in this big trade. i think divorced from kind of the divergence from oil prices versus energy equities, we now think it's time to look at the equities. the sell-off a little overdone

now. there are reasons to be optimistic on the upside here. >> rising oil prices? that doesn't seem to be happening now. >> everybody's focusing on the u.s. production, back to 9 million barrels a day right now. i think potentially, you could get opec extension. but even then, a lot of what's been happening is seasonal. we expect a tick back up that should support oil prices going forward. >> you guys, what do you make in the moves of the -- i'm not asking you to comment on specific stocks, but exxon, chevron, conocophillips, the crude market has gone lower. a broader market that's been going sideway. >> i think if you're thinking about the specific sectors, we want exploration and production. if you look at e & p companies, that gives the most leverage. if you want to really feel optimistic about this trade, you want to have exposure to the e & p companies.

there's offshore, as welg as onshore projects. the offshore projects expensive as well. the companies that can potentially benefit in the improving oil environment, but if we do get some deregulation that's impactful to the energy sector. >> how do you factor in what has gone on in the past, you know, five days or so with aca not having a chance at this point in terms of tax reform and the likelihood, does that fak or at all into your forecast for the year? >> i think we're at the point now we should no longer be talking about tax reform, more about tax cuts. it seems to be more of a challenge to think about tax reform. because aca, appeal of obamacare, was so detrimental to the republicans and what their stature was. i think now saying they're going to say, okay, what can we actually do, what will we take. they won't worry about the bad or anything like that. think about potentially cutting corporate tax rate. i think that should be the shift. >> as a market view, that almost -- almost as positively

as a corporate tax reform package. we impact -- the impact is on ecs. >> how the market is going to interpret it. some of the things that relate out initially in a tax reform was 100% capital expenditure deduction. if we don't get that on tax reform, you could see people pull back a little bit. let's say you go from 35% down to 25% so to speak. that's still substantial that you could have some investment and ceos and business leaders saying, okay, we have the environment actually do some research in the development and capital expenditures, maybe we'll take advantage of that tax rate. the market is saying, we were expecting this grand tax reform. remember, we haven't done tax reform for 30 years now. it's not a clear-cut solution. >> last question here. if you got word today that tax cuts were on the table and likely to happen, would you still say that the markets are not a screaming buy or does that change your value -- your outlook for valuation? >> i think what we would have to

see it, you were talking about the earnings conference calls and things like that, we would have to talk to the business leaders and say how are you going to put this capital to work, that reduction in savings. if we get word from the ceos and cfos saying it would influence it, they could push higher a little bit. pes right now, about 22.3. so we know we're at the upper levels of the valuation rapgs. if we get more investment, that will drive earnings growth and push us a little higher. >> terry, good to see you. >> great to see you guys, too. >> i love the call on energy. if you think how negative people have gotten it wrong. people are getting out of these positions. demand is not going to catch up until the second or third quarter. demand is not supposed to be picking up now. go for names that have a lot of leverage to the medium cycle. these names have been beaten up. i think people are still wrong how far oil will go down. >> one thing i take away from

that conversation is you get some sort of repatriation or lower corporate tax rate, you'll see it in m & a. a lot of people with $15 billion left scratching their head. they're thinking, we'll have lower tax rates or be able to repatriate. i think you have to go back to 2004, and think about the last time we had a repatriation holiday. microsoft at the time was the largest beneficiary of that. they got their money back and paid a $20 billion special dividend. it's not all going to go to hiring and r&d, but it means job consults ultimately. >> for me, the last -- i'm actually a net seller of stocks at this level. i sold my qualcomm and snap. i was in and out of snap. the last thing i did buy was valiant. for me, i'm a net seller. i want to see it start to firm up. today it firmed slightly. but this to me, this little bounce that we saw off the 50-day, doesn't give me conviction to go out there and buying a whole new leg of stock

sectors and names. >> ibb hangs in there, off the 290 level. and tess louisialtesla, trading if not all the day. to me, tesla feels as though it wants to break through the all-time high. >> i think european banks look really interesting here. european stock markets are 20% cheaper to ours. what could derail everything. it's probably not on your radar. the co-founder of politico will join us to explain why he's calling it a ticking time bomb. plus, wall street snap toss it. but there might be more behind the initiation than you think. we'll explain. it's "fast money" madness. taking on the reigning champ. you decide. okay, so what's our latest data say?

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welcome back to "fast money." word on the street is snap is worth buying. that kicks off our top trade. bullish on shapchat parent

including goldman sachs initiating a buy. both firms were among the underwriters of snap's ipo. the most bullish price target by far? mark appeared on squawk alley earlier today. what's the main driver for the valuation. here's what he said. >> check out the march madness content in the stories, part of shapchat. >> shares of snap jumping more than 4% today. so if you follow the street, into the stock. dan? >> i think you feel comfortable. a lot of the initiations today, yes, a lot from underwriters marks. i think up near $31. i think the average price target on the street, about 23, 24, right where it's trading. people pretty neutral on it. the problem that you have here is this massive market cap. you have a lot of uncertainty. but i do agree with mark about the content and the fact that

this is the only pure play augmented reality stock out there right now. i think there is just a finite amount of offerings that people can look to for the sort of stuff. i can't tell you $23 is the right price. can it squeeze up to $30? no doubt about it. but again, we've got the sale, and the negativity out. >> the underwriters couldn't come in for a certain amount of time. it seems dirty to me. >> every single firm that had anything to do with it with the buy ratings -- >> they start to say how great it is. we heard the statements that they might never be profitable. the whole thing to me could be replicated extremely easily. instagram could replicate it. has been replicating it. >> are you saying that the bankers and the analysts are, what -- i'm curious to get to your point. do you think there's cheerleading going on? >> i think they have a vested interest in snap doing well.

>> even after they've done the deal? >> 100%. because right now we'd be doing a show that snap collapsed. what did these bankers know about the stock before bringing this deal public. what do they know, when did they know it. they knew it was a bad deal. >> they're supposed to be a chinese wall. they're not necessarily supposed to have the same view. >> i don't necessarily believe in the chinese wall. you come out with the upgrades, and i know it's very conspiratorial. just the way i feel. i felt this way since i started my career in 1993. i still feel this way now. >> when i look at actually whatever you want to call it, some kind of a bar chart against buy/sell, it's right up the middle. there's five buys, two strong buys, five sells, five strong sells. for a company that universally people there's a lot of interest, but we've got to wait and see. >> woods are lovely, dark and deep. you know what that's from? >> i don't.

>> come on, mel. even if you did the online harvard, i know you did. miles to go before the end chapter is written in the snap story. although i thought it would trade 17, it got down to 18.90. >> i want to make another point. this is a fact. most of the people that would be buying it, whether large investment pools or individuals, they're not on it. it's different than facebook. when facebook went public in 2012, and when twitter went in 2013, most of the investment community was using the services and understood them. they don't trust their kids now, if you're parents, you know that. it's noot just yet that i think people understand the story. investors start to understand the story a little better at some point in 2017. >> there should always be a generational gap until -- >> well, no, but i think they're talking about the way that they're adding new products. this discovered product that will be a news based product. whatever it is. there may be something that

hooks older generation. certainly my generation, you know. >> you're againgen-x, right, da? there's a ticking time bomb that could be the next big threat to the trump rally. jim is here to explain what it is, and why it's so important to the markets right after this break. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. here's what else is coming up on fast. dennis gartman has something to say. ♪ i'm sorry ♪ so sorry >> and he'll explain why he's been wrong about the market. and the most important thing he's learned in the past year. plus, the last time guy faced grasso in "fast money" madness? this happened. but grasso's got some new moves and he'll unveil them when "fast money" returns. urns. you have access to in-depth analysis, level 2 data,

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welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site. here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. stocks posted a stunning reversal today. but if you're worried about more volatility to come, fear not, we've got your portfolio protection play. plus, our "fast money" madness continues this week with the health care showdown between valiant and allergan. which will advance to the final four. we'll let you out there decide when the floor governor goes up against the negotiator. undefeated champ. wow. >> you can't have an idea. >> you can have my answer now, senator. >> nothing. >> let's start off with

president trump's 100th day in office. john harwood in d.c. with more on the story. hi, john. >> hi, melissa. first of all, i'm got a dami in my bracket. >> john harwood, that's what i'm talking about! >> president trump and congress have plenty of time to get back on track, but it will not be easy. consider these legislative land mines that they are both facing. by april 28th, republicans will have to fund the government for the rest of the year or face a government shutdown. it won't be ease to avoid that. neither will agrees on a fiscal 201$2018 resolution. projecting trillion dollar deficit. they need to create the smoothest possible path for tax reform. but from border of adjustment provision to impacts on the deficit remain intense republican debate.

they want tax reform done by august. august is also when they'll need to raise the federal debt limit in order to avoid a government default. now, winning the support for that from conservative members of the house freedom caucus may be even tougher than winning their support on health care, melissa. >> wow. john harwood, thank you. what does it mean for the trump rally. jim is co-founder of axios and joins us now from washington. jim, good to see you. >> good to be here. thanks for having me. >> you say a shutdown is a much bigger threat than people are factor in at this point? >> it seems the markets are assuming there will not be more chaos. what harwood pointed out about needing to fund the government and the idea of raising the debt limit later in the summer, i'll tell you, the white house and republican leadership, they don't see the math and how they can get it done. they assume they'll get it done. but they don't see how. because you have these freedom caucus members, these very conservative members who sunk the health care bill, who could

use both of those funding bills to say, listen, we wanted to fund planned parenthood, we wanted to fund obamacare. if they decide to do that, and i understand they're meeting tonight to discuss this, you really could have the possibility of a government shutdown. and if you have that, you're going to have market chaos. >> for a party that's totally in control of washington at this point, just by the numbers, it would be a political suicide. this would sort of be like party destruction. why would other party go down that road? >> politically, it's nuts. i wouldn't assume it wouldn't happen. we've seen for the last eight years republicans have a hell of a time getting their conference behind any legislative initiative. the reason john boehner is not speaker today, and why paul ryan wishes he wasn't speaker on some days. the tea party members, they won in 2009, 2010. because they wanted to defund the government. they wanted to radically reduce

the size and scope of government, particularly on the health care front. to them, they're just doing what they promised their constituents. these are not trump conservatives. they're tea party conservatives. people sometimes mix them up and assume they're the exact same breed of republican. they're not. right now, post-health care, you have real chaos and soul-searching inside the republican party. they don't know what to do. find me a democrat who wants to negotiate with trump. >> i agree with your analysis. when you look at the past, all-time highs in the s&p, or thereabouts. when you look at every other government shutdown, it all has to be a buying opportunity. so do you see where president obama couldn't get anyone to vote for his budget, including democrats, do you see this the same way ultimately? >> what i don't know is how the markets are going to react to it, because it seems like you understand the markets a hell of a lot better than i do.

they assume that you're going to have tax reform in a rational government. they're both big dangerous assumptions to be making. i assume you'll have massive volatility. the real possibility of a government shutdown. you're going to have many points over the next couple of months where it looks like tax reform is not going to happen. it may still happen, and it probably will over the next couple of years. but it's a lot harder than people understand. people look at congress and assume, this is 435 rational people making rational market decisions. it's not how they operate. they operate as individual political actors, many of whom are here on an ideological crusade to reduce the size and scope of government. that's colliding against donald trump. and so this idea that over the weekend, oh, let's work with democrats, like i was just saying, find me a democrat who wants to work with donald trump. they feel like they've got him backed into a corner. they want to take him out, they don't want to help him. >> how panicked do you think is the republican party at the end of the day?

as you point out as well, a lot of these republicans did not run as trump, quote unquote, republicans. the trump administration thought they would just sort of come along with them once he got into the white house. that necessarily hasn't happened either. >> what's going to happen is, you're going to have donald trump and paul ryan saying, if we shut down the government? we will look like a lot of hapless lawmakers -- you shouldn't assume it's going to work. i think at the end of the day they probably find enough republican votes to avoid that catastrophe. but what i'm saying is, there's a much better chance than a lot of your viewers probably think that they don't find those votes, that you continue to have a washington that doesn't function. listen, this is what happens when you have a president who takes office and kind of improvises his way through things. they did not think through how to do health care. think through that maybe we should do tax reform and infrastructure spending first, to get the economy take off.

a healthy market makes you a really, really strong president. instead they do health care, which is one of the most difficult things for republicans to do. and then they do it in a way that looks like a debacle to people, internally and externally. now it freaks everybody out. whereas it could have been tax reform first and say look at the regulatory relief and the market lift. i would expect a lot of volatility. >> thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. axios, it's either the markets are just not factoring it in, or they are, and they're saying look what has happened so far and we've been trading very -- in a muted fashion. >> i don't think markets are factoring it in. i think if you actually look at what's going on in the ten-year yield, the bottom end of this range, 230, i think probably will hold. i actually think yields may go higher. they may go higher for the opposite reason and tumult in the debt ceiling. i know the democrats don't want to work with them and push them, but i don't think trump's a republican. i'm not sure where he goes, but

he's going to go where he gets votes. we may not know where this ends. >> they talk about the market performance being a report card when the market was going higher. the market hasn't really gone anywhere. if the market were to take a leg down, he's not going to take the blame himself. he will blame others. the market going lower in the short term works to his advantage. because he'll tell people, he'll tell congress, look at what you people are doing to the market. but for you, that could actually work in his favor. >> right. >> i think ultimately it does. but, you know, i'm trying to look at the freedom caucus. i'm trying to look at what the action of the market was today and that really means for tax policy going forward. who knows, maybe the way they were embarrassed, maybe that helps corral more votes for tax policy. they have less of a dog in that fight. >> but wasn't this health care thing really -- for all intents and purposes it was giving the wealthy a tax break, cutting off

health care access to 24 million people. that's how they're going to get -- >> the wealthy ones had the burden of the -- >> but that's all -- >> they're deficit hawks. they can't do the reform that they want -- >> the only tax cut they can bring will totally help the wealthy. >> but that's consistent with -- >> these guys are waving their white flags. they're going to do more and more of this. they said no legislation when it's bad legislation. that's great. >> jim said it, this is why these guys came to power in 2010 after obamacare was put in place. >> they also said they were going to repeal this law for seven or eight years. they never did. so at the end of the day, it's a massively dysfunctional republican conference. >> watch out for the -- >> i do believe, though, that the markets can climb that wall. they did it with president

obama. president obama -- >> but there's no wall right now. >> president obama did not pass a budget for the first term. what are you talking about? >> where is the wall of words? >> the market is actually -- >> we were worried about recession. we were worried about -- >> you're talking about climbing a wall. >> gdp has been cut in half. we're looking for 3%, 4% gdp. >> you say that? >> yes, i do think. >> they were factoring in -- funds were factoring in a 3% or 4% gdp. they're not doing it anymore. >> nobody was factoring in -- >> you don't -- dan, we're talking about billion-dollar funds that had to model it in. i'm not talking about your desk. ne had to model it. >> the secretary -- >> you have to model it in. based on infrastructure. even if it was transitory. tax cuts, deregulation, they

were modeling it in, 3%, 4% gdp. >> we live in a world right now with alternative facts. anybody doing a 3% to 4% -- >> you need to be on that wall! >> totally ridiculous. totally ridiculous. >> it was never likely to happen. >> they had to model it in. >> let me tell you something. at the network we love larry kudlow here. he was talking about all this supply side garbage that never worked 30 years ago and it's not going to -- hold on, hold on. >> in the reagan administration to the biggest boom we've ever seen in the stock market. i'm tired of you rewriting history. they are the facts. >> people like him coming on talking about it, we didn't have a lot of time to talk about this, but they're supporting a guy that they can't get behind. he said everything he had in getting the bill passed. it was an outright lie. the guy didn't. i think his top adviser wanted to see ryan fail. they knew exactly what the freedom caucus were going to do.

here's the thing, it is a market shell. this is what the market has been trading on now. we had the politico guy and axio guy talk about the market volatility. >> the people are too complacent. there is a wall of worry, steve. >> where were you in the opening of the show, you said the gdp looks great. there's no wall. do you think the markets are going up or down? you roll your eyes. i'm trying to understand where the heck you are. i don't know where you are. are you bullish or bearish? i don't know. >> that's not what i said. >> i can do this. >> what i'm telling you is this market has been very blase about events. it was about the debt ceiling and could it be an issue and are people paying attention to it. i said i don't think they're paying attention to it. >> wait a minute, because they're not paying attention to it, every other time we paid attention to it before, the market sold off briefly, and the market consistently ran higher

from there. >> the market is overly complacent here. >> my point is -- my point is, no matter what you're worried about, it might be ideaologic worries. >> we've got to stop. if you're worried, as worried as dan, how do you protect your game? dan, why don't you show us. >> here's the thing. we have the show friday at 5:30. we talk about some of this stuff. we talk about the volatility and complacency. what's interesting about the s&p 500, i look at the options on the spy, that's the epf that tracks the s&p 500 every week, the market has implied about a 1% move in either direction for the s&p 500. that speaks to the complacency that tim is talking about. when we look out to the events, one of the things that traders like to do is schedule events. we have the debt ceiling vote and the french election coming up. we know there's going to be more fed activity over the next couple of months.

if you're long stocks and you want to hold on to them, you should think about hedging strategies. let me give you a couple of bullets here. you are paying premium to protect your portfolio. that's really what you're doing. paying a certain amount of money to get a certain amount of protection over a period every time. you want to do this when option prices are relatively low. although they've picked up in the last week and a half or so, they're still relatively low. i'll show you a chart of the options on this in a minute. the last one is, this is the most important thing. it could be a massive drag on performance. but you want to use options tactically to protect your portfolio. here's the s&p 500, the spy right here. this is the trend. the november lows. this is the break i see. i think if you have a continuation of this bounce, that you may get maybe with 1% or 2% or so, and a failure at the down trend, you may want to look out a few months. this is implied volatility, the price of on shuns here.

look at how it's very low relative to the past time. look out to july. if you want to protect the stocks, it tracks the s&p 500, when the stock was trading about 233 today, you could buy the july 230, 205 put spread paying $4 for that. that is your mask risk. 3% of the underlying stock price -- excuse me, 1.7%. but you get protection down 3%. and you could make up to $21. that is 9%. gets your protection down to 12%. i think that makes sense for people who hold stocks, looking out a few months. >> thanks for that, dan. check out the show friday. ahead, the battle between two health care stocks. the stocks getting hit in the last year. which one is a better buy right here, right now? they duke it out over which one is best. going pretty big now. does grasso have what it takes

to take it down a notch? we'll let you be the judge when "fast money" returns. . hey gary, what'd you got here? . this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade

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it's time for "fast money" madness. steve grasso is challenged undefeated champion guy adami. guy's fighting for allergan. guy, you get to go for it first. 45 seconds on the clock. make the case for allergan. >> thank you, mel. think about it, college fight song. it's interesting that valiant and allergan, they were linked together at one point. i sort of fought for valiant a couple of weeks ago. steve's going to do an amazing job and he's probably going to be right. this is why i sort of dig allergan. valuation, six times trailing, 13 times forward earnings. stock is extraordinarily cheap. decent balance sheet. they just bought a company. i know you know this, nod your head if you know, cool sculpting? you know what i'm talking about? you know exactly what i'm talking about. that's catching on now, the

whole cool sculpting thing, why? you don't got to go to the gym. you go in, get iced down, all of a sudden you go from a size 8 to size 6. >> personal experience? >> well, look at me. >> when are you starting? >> don't give me the cricket. >> i get how valiant can work in this thing. the up side is tremendous for val yapt if they get one thing right. the tremendous down side, they've come a long way. the clock struck 12 for cinderella. >> go, grasso. >> guy started it. where guy left off. he just said there's tremendous upside for valiant. there is tremendous upside for valiant. down dramatically on the year, down dramatically from where it came from. downslide right here. where can it bounce to? stocks at $11 number. you know your defined risk, it's $11. when you look at allergan, this competition is who has more upside. there's no way, guy would say, that valiant does not have more

upside than allergan. >> agreed. >> steve? >> comes right down to that. if you look at their maturities, they pushed them out now. you worried about the stock going out of business? they've already pushed out their maturities. four loans to 2022. so, yes, there is still an issue that overhangs this stock. but right now, it's an issue that's going to happen in a couple of years, not tomorrow. >> valiant case being made by steve grasso. tim, you have a question? >> do you think you lost? >> just kidding. >> what happens when this equity goes to zero? because there's actually a bankruptcy? >> i don't think it's going to be a bankruptcy. you saw the headlines, they pushed out those terms. they pushed out those debt loans out to 2022. that was a big headline for the stock. you saw the number two holder, additional 3 million shares. they believe in it, so do you. >> cool sculpting. >> now from you. >> don't go there. don't go there. >> who should advance to the final four? we're letting you out there decide.

go on to twitter right now and cast your vote vote in our poll. i don't want to give it away, but the godfather is in the lead. the winner will be announced at the end of the show. the one thing dennis garvin said failed miserably at. at fidelity, trades are now just $4.95.

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welcome back to "fast money." miserable failure, unforgivable. a few of the words dennis gartman used to describe one of his recent trades. so where did he go wrong? what would he do differently? he joins us now with the most important piece of advice. does this have to do with your call where the bottom was in oil, crest? >> absolutely. and boy, did i miss that. clearly wasn't the first time i've missed something. won't be the last time that i missed something. but it was clearly a very bad call on my part. i had been ambivalent on crude oil thinking it would trade sideways for a long period of time. i bought it towards the bottom end. and within two days, i was shown to be utterly, completely, and intolerably incorrect. those things happen. part of the deal. as i like to tell people, there's nothing wrong with being wrong, you'll be wrong in a lot in the business. what's important is not to

continue to be wrong, and admit when you made a mistake and admit that the losses, one, two, three, four percent or somebody in the case of ackman who bought oil all the way down, you don't want to lose 95%. that's the difference. i was wrong, badly so. wasn't the first time, won't be the last. >> right. so where do you stand now on oil? or do you not want to go there? >> well, i think it's a little on the cheap side. i don't think it's dramatically so. i'll pay attention to what the term structure tells me. right now the term structure, the con tago continues to widen, so the propensity will say probably it will continue to deteriorate. do i want to press it down here? not on my life. >> where do you see stocks? you've been bullish for a while. >> i've been modestly bullish for a while. but only modestly so. no dramatically so. i think as i've told people in the newsletter, there's only three pushes you can have, aggressively long, pleasantly long or neutral.

after last week, especially after the failure in the congress, which i think the public is going to look on it as being a serious error of judgment, that probably means that neutral is the better place to be. still a bull market. i think you'll get that inevitable correction. i think it's upon us right now. i think that neutrality is the better place to be. buy protection, consult back some of your positions, be less aggressively long. you can't be short. but i don't think it's right to be aggressively long at this point. i trade only from my own account and that's exactly where i stand right now. >> thanks so much. i'm sure a lot of folks learned from the lessons you outlined earlier in the segment. appreciate it. dennis gartman of the gartman letter. cutting your losses is a phrase that i don't know if it came from trading. but it certainly applies. >> i hope it came from trading. the mistake people make is they hold on to their losers way too long. they manage to lose money

because they keep the losers longer than they should. >> tim? >> i think you're in a place here, we say this on the show, when you go long a name or stay long a name, you've been in for a long time and you don't have the same conviction, you're probably making a mistake. maybe the resource stocks, maybe -- i stay long freeport. don't pray that the one stock that is actually probably the worst story in your portfolio is going to get. grasso's argument for valiant. did you vote for him? defeat guy adami? we'll reveal the results when "fast money" returns. urns.

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businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. welcome back to "fast money." america has spoken. it's time to reveal the winner. drum roll, please! and guy adami once again. on a winning streak. >> unbelievable. >> guy, congratulations. >> obviously i didn't win the dance contest. >> nice work. >> nice work, guy. >> don't care about the affordable care act. >> grasso? >> monsanto, a proposed deal on the table. i still think it's still worth a buy. >> do you want a hug? >> you're giving them out, i'm

taking them. >> spy puts. >> red hat! >> you remembered it. see you back here tomorrow. "mad money" starts right now. b more ""fast money."" "mad money" starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to k cramerica. my aim is well, we didn't crash. we didn't get clobbered like so many predicted would happen. instead we plummeted early