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tv   Options Action  CNBC  March 31, 2017 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT

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>> hey there, we're live on this rainy day. we will bring sunshine, here's what's coming up on the show. ♪ oil, that is ♪ black gold >> and oil is bubbling up to a three-week high. traders see more room to run. we'll tell you just how high. plus, how hot are facebook shares? >> hot! dam hot! real hot! >> something happened today that might want you to check profits. we'll tell you what that is. and have you missed out on a ramally? >> god, darn, darn.
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>> relax, we have the group of stocks that can catch up to the market. we'll explain. the objection begins right now. >> let's get right to it. starting out for a big week for big tech, making multiples record highs. we will have to have both at high adding to the check rally here. stocks at record levels, do you stick with technology? let's go to the money. mike whark do you say? >> we are about to hear from carter about this, until we are about to, i would have to say, usually you stick with what's working. you would stick with growth and you would also stick with something people don't seem to be able to short, amazon certainly falls into that category. so you know, when i'm trying to look for a place that you do see top line growth, you do see consistent eps growth, this seems to be the sector where you see it. valuations are the things forme from a fundamental point of view. >> we have microsoft hitting a new high.
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>> i don't think microsoft valuation is out of hand. i don't think oracle is out of hand. >> or apple. >> it's definitely the haves and the have nots from a valuation perspective. you can look at netflix and say that is a pretty heavy valuation. everything has to hit on all cylinders. >> amazon also i think that's also true. >> the questions are not just tech. we were talking amazon, amazon is not tech. half a fact, meaning, you use large cap things that are prevailing that are independent of the economy are maybe overdone to some extent. so it's tech as a sector, it's also some of the names individually that come a long way. >> quickly, in terms of netflix, know, can we give them? maybe they are playing a long game, they're not focused on the quarter to quarter the fact that they are burning cash admittedly so. maybe they're in there for a ten-year plan. right now it's a land grab. they havep or 8% globally. think about it. if they double that, being that they've become so although i hear you on the netflix
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valuation, it's crazy. maybehey're in there for much different reasons. >> amazon. >> the truth is if you look at the bottom of what they're doing, whether you are looking at amazon or netflix. they don't seem like tech per se. tech is what is really propelling the story. you can drive people around with technology. can you take over retail, take over the entertainment business with technology. that's what all of these companies are doing. all of them are trying to do the land grab. jeff bezos admittedly successful. >> one of our biggest clients, carter, i own a big defense contract. what do you think that is? they're the biggest tech guys of all. there are many ways to get tech. facebook isn't tech and so forth. >> the trump master says it is time to lit the unfriend button on one popular tech. carter. what are you looking for? >> it's facebook, is it tech?
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a popular stock? a super cap name. and it's come a long way. let's just start with a few things. so, just to put nit perspective, i thought i'd put it in the top three waitings by sector in the s&p. we know this is a gargantuan, microsoft and google and so forth. so, one, it's reapinching, much more segment. keep that in mind. so again, only two of the four stocks are in tech. the weighting of these is 6%. apple and microsoft use have ten or 11%. total s&p. let's talk about facebook. okay. first of all, fang, that group, are going to get to facebook. that group top chart those four stocks plotted equal weight, broke out to a new high. and, yet, they have not made a
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relative new high since october. they have honored the market for five months straight. so fang, these four, up new high, no relative high, meaning, having been in them for five months is a did you ud, here ar numbers. you have done half as well as the market. since one has gone higher and higher. so facebook chart, five years, here's what my eye sees. a trend. yeah. and what i think we got here is where we're getting into the outer limits of what is likely. we're up closer to the topch i want to fade this. i think the stall in fang generally means something. this recent day-to-day is quite steep. i'm making a venture to come off here. facebook, right calm, do something. >> mike, what are you doing? >> as i was articulated from this double free cash flow, it's hard to think the whole story is going to roll over. if it is at the top of that channel, you expect a modest
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pullback, one way is by selling the may 140, 145 call spread. you could sell, buy the 145 and 140 t. most the spread can be worth is $5. you are selling it $60. if it says right here, will you collect a little premium t. declines will make money. as it rallies the most you can lose is $2.40. i think it's hard to pickstop stocks outperforming a long period the way facebook has. >> i know you governor dw. >> by the way, dan, thanks, for having me on. >> would you agree with this trade? >> yes. >> the excitement of fb? >> i have been a facebook fan. i still am. i watch this sunday night show "the homeland." why do i bring it up? the theme has been, this is tually a serious point this
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whole make the news the propgation of trying to sway public opinion. that's actually, if you look, without question, there is something like that going on. i think the biggest one that loses to this is facebook. i wonder if they address it in the court or advertisers potentially fall away. as they report april 27th i think. i think you got to take main i money off the table. based on what these folks said as well. >> the environment where banks are so week and energy is relatively weak to the markets. does facebook get pushed higher because of the gravitational debt. >> >> you look relative to google and the others, it goes to 115 on a year basis, it's ahead of most of its peers, it is growth, whatever you want to call them. it's an unsustainable angle. >> either you look for the areas under performing, trying to play catchup. or your concern there could be overall market weakness, in
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which case the out performers will see weakness, either way, it does seem like it's had a run in the short term and it could be poised. >> let's move on to crude now, jumping nearly 6%. bullish bets on oil fund etf i should say. uso seeing two times calls to puts. wesov foolish option bets. what does the "options action" market know? >> i this i the "options action" market knows that maybe this crude mark that crude oil is back down to $40. maybe we put in a short-term bottom. maybe there is a bounce? i got to tell you something, conoco philips pete najerian flagged it earlier this week. they have be swishy, nay might have found ground. i mentioned to tesoro on "fast money" an hour or so ago, i think tso gets $80. if you think oil is on its way back to $55, you play the
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levered names like a petroleum apc. >> one of the things i would point out is that when you are talking about refiners. one of the big things that happened when basically we saw brent trade over west texas, is that we have a flut of crude in cushing. mid-content refiners were able to benefit from. that now we are seeing the pipeline project. it looks like that will go through. where is that delivering crude from alberta? so that's the illinois refiners, refiners around cushing, oklahoma. now a lot of that can stream down to the gulf as well. i think both of those areas retypers are. >> they are trapped there. >> really? you have all these shares, it's a generational buy here. >> first of all, think about it. there were two things that were guaranteed when this year began. you have to own financials, because interest rates are going higher. total disaster t. second was crude is set up perfectly at $52 a barrel him opec is not on board, it's off to the races,
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total disaster. sometimes consensus is great. sometimes it's exactly wrong. just because crude goes up two, three days. i don't think it's changed at all. if you look out to the christmas group contract, it's projecting no -- >> that is a fair point. so, you know, 2018 crude oil is off $6 bucks anyhowe since the beginning of the year. we definitely seen the curve flatten. >> that isn't the issue, when you look at continental fires, that i are consumers of crude. they aren't sellers and producers of it. if the commodity you buy goes down in price and the curve is indicating on the haves, you will ultimately end up benefiting. >> you have beautiful voices. it's sultry tones. >> the contrast. >> i'm on this side. i'm a bit of a neanderthal. >> because you ate the burgers. >> can you see that on "fast money"? i know we got to go to break. >> got a question out there, tweet to option action.cnbc.com.
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it's like they died and went to "options action" heaven. check out our newsletter. what are you waiting for? in the meantime, here's what's coming up next. here's what reits have done this year. but there is something in the charts that suggest now is the time to buy. plus, calling all "options action" fans, reach if your pock, not your phone and tweet us your question at "options action"action. if it's nice, we'll answer it on area when "options action" returns. >> love you. >> get tomorrow's news today. with the futures now news letter. ♪ guyhey nicole, happening here? this is my new alert system
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for whenever anything happens in the market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary.
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wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. welcome back to "fast" i mean ""options action."" i'm domenic chu, once we close out the week, one thing worth noting, is the treasury market. interest rates have ten-year yields, 4% large as high as 2.61% just a few weeks ago. the drop in rates have put a bit of a bid into bond proxy type stocks, the ones that pay the relative dividends. telecom stocks. interestingly enough, that trade has been coming undone a little this week. despite relatively flat yield movements since last friday. it's these rate sensitive
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sectors among the worst performers during that same time span here. so the consumer staple sector is up a 10th of a percent this week. telecom services is down a half a percent t. utilities down a full%. perhaps interesting, though, here the real estate sector, which has been notable lagerred has been slowly crawling higher, the vanguard ticker is on a multi-day winning streak, so mellissa, some great proxy stacks are doing better than others even as rates stay pretty static. back over to you, guys. >> thanks, dom, "options action" starts at 5:30 eastern time. the chart master says reits could be right for your portfolio. >> that's exactly right. meaning you have this one group that's lag. it's now come into light. so let's put this in optical terms. i have two lines, one is blue, one is orange. can you see what they are. look at the spread over the past year or so between utilities and
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rates. i mean utilities have done twice as well as highly interest rate sensitive markets. this is a two-year chart. here's your spread, dom said, reits were up this week. that's the whole point have you the setup of other performance, here's a five-year. reits lagging by half as much. that's your opportunity, but you only do it once it starts to happen. meaning, now they are acting this week when the others did not. so how do you draw the lines? you could draw them like this, something of a head and shoulders bottom. you can draw them like this, a wedge, but what i see is higher. i think the action this week is telling. finally, since they are interest rate sensitive, let's talk about effects. utilities are paying 3.1. they are paying 3.8. that's not nothing. i want to be long reits.
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>> this is like an ultimate would you rather for you? >> i love to play the game. >> we do this on "fast money," folks, for those that don't watch. >> utilities or reits? >> in this instance i think the yir, reits, few go back and look over the last five years, you are talking about an instrument that's made a series of higher highs and higher lows. i think that pattern is in force right now. yes, if you ask ne many which one, the iir puts it back towards the 81 level it failed ought. >> michael what would you trade be? >> i think in this case, you can spend $2.40. we have spoken about this often. we were talking about interesting you know three more hikes this year, when the shortened of the curve rises, that actually helps keep lid on the long end of the curve. you are trying to control inflation. also, these real yet companies are big borrowers.
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they will benefit longer term rates. if there is a degree of inflation, these are holder of real saturday assets in general. >> thar ones that are terrible running these malls or outlets, those have structural problems. but as an asset class, reits are a good payer. >> within the reits etf, is there going to be a concern, though, there are pockets of the reit industry write is more troubled than other pockets? >> this is a philosophical question. what these reits does it hides, it has a masker effect for food things. that's good when it's headed higher. i think it can be a devastating thing. we haven't seen that yet. >> if you have basically the second to your mall operators, that's challenging t. top tier operators should be a good place and have old bay residential. >> shares of nike still down off
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last week's earnings, bad news for mike and carter who says they'll give us the next step for the trade when we come right bac
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back. . welcome back to ""options action."" we have a news alert on myelin. >> myelin is issuing a recall to the epipen of a recall of 81,000 devices a couple weeks ago earlier this month. that was outside the united states. that came after two events where people tried to use the epipens and they didn't deploy accurately. now those people were okay. they were able to replace those devices, as a cautionary measure, myelin says in coordination and consultation with the fda, they decided as to do 13 hots of the epipen. this doesn't affect the opposite version of the epipen without
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the brand on it now. we are trying to figure out exactly how many units this encompasses in the 13 lots. we will get back to you with any more information. >> thank you, meg terrell. >> you talk about myelin evaluation, it's ridiculously cheap. i don't know if that's the story right now. mike can speak far more intelligently. i'll say this, six times forward earnings, that's not why you trade the stock. they placed a 44 million share a secondary a week ago at $40 through morgan stanley. in my opinion, you don't buy the stock until it gets back to that level and holds it. otherwise, the news flow keeps on coming, it's all negative. >> we tip back on our open trades that aren't working, two weeks ago, carter imposed on nike breaking out. >> it was a lagerred, that's the opportunity, now this part here is better than this part here so you are starting to get the very thing you want, which is
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outperformance. i like nike highs, i want to be on the high side. >> you can buy the six-and-a-half calls. he's are in the money. for just $2.45. >> nike shares have fallen more than '% since then. carter, what are you seeing in the charts now? >> so this is almost a dead rock. something that's acting well is going to get even better in response to news and earnings beat. it actually gaps down. that's all you can do. >> one of the things about buying calls is you are walking away automatically when this happens, they eeshlly have given up most if not all of their value. you wanted to hang on, that's how much you will lose i think, it seems unlikely they will get to that level now. >> at this point in time, what would do you with nike? >> i think it came back nicely the stock traded down to 52 or so. it's come back, it hasn't gotten it all back, it got most of it back. it's still at about a two-year
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down trend in my opinion, it's got to break 57-and-a-half on the upside. >> the data pouptsz are not very good and this week nike was brought down by lululemon. >> interesting enough, 57-and-a-half is the strike we own. on that breakout level, you already own it there. >> and we've lost all week. >> it did bounce, it started to fade, if it bounced, it could have stuck. >> that would have helped, but it didn't. >> it's like i belong on this show. this is incredible. >> i love this show, dan who? >> you need a four in the. >> no, we don't. >> very heavy. >> we don't. all right, up sect, grab your phone, send us a tweet. if it's night, you might get a fileal call from the "options action" desk. stay tuned.
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welcome back to "option action" time for some tweets, do you guys miss dan nathan within he's not there? >> eh, not really. >> c'mon, of course. >> of course, we miss dan, right, guys? >> of course. >> he doesn't miss us. he's on the beach in san diego. here's the next one, steve tweets, with the sy being so stable. what do you think of the condor mix too low? >> this is basically selling volatility. as long as the market doesn't move around you will make money doing this, that said, we are in basically the lowest level you could experience, the risk on this seems a little high. >> the market is quite range for about four, five weeks. i wouldn't do it. >> all right. the time for the final call. carter. >> i want to take some of my profits if i have them on facebook and reemploy theme into
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reits. >> the 145 call on facebook is the way to go. >> south carolina outright sets up an all carolina finalist at the final. watch it monday night. >> our time is it monday night. >> thanks for watching, "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money, i'm here to level the playing field for all investors, there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. some people want to make friends, i want to make you some money. my job is not just to train, you to educate and teach you. call me or tweet me @jim cramcr. today was a bit of a

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