tv Mad Money CNBC April 4, 2017 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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retail name that can be decisionary going higher, keep the costs down. >> tiffany. >> they're exhausted with you, too. >> i'm melissa lee, thanks for watching. more "fast money". meantime, don't go anywhere, mad mon with tomorrow here at 5:00 for more "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts now. my mission is simple. to make you money, i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. some want to make friends, i just want to help you make money. call me at 1-800-741-cnbc, tweet me @cramer. valuation is in the eye of
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beholder. or in the case of stock market, the buyer beholder. yet that concept seems to allude so many people who watch the show, when they try to value stocks in the stock market. today the s&p gaining over 0.6%. in the last two hours, you and i have seen a number of stories about how ridiculous it is that's the tha that's ttha that's tthat tesla, the car -- 3.2 million cars last year. tesla produced 83,000. in the last two years, ford lost 4 billion. last year tesla lost 4.3 million. how can tesla's stock be worth more than ford's? you know some people who say there's no such thing as stupid
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questions, just stupid answers. not here. tesla isn't worth more than ford, it's just that there are institutions who are willing to pay more for tesla's stock than for ford's right now. in the stock markets in the short-term, all that matters is what someone's willing to pay. let's unpeel the onion on both stocks, first let's compare ford with ford. four years ago, ford's market capitalization stood at $60 billion, today it's at $45 billi billion. ford's gross profit last year, $16.3 billion, four years ago, $18.8 billion. ford's adjusted earnings back then $1.90. last year ford only earned
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$1.74. basically the company had flat revenues and down earnings. this story a fairly decent economic expansion. not only that, but given how weak ford's been this year, and how many incentives the automakers have had to sell vehicles, it's entirely possible that we're in what's known as peak auto sales. if that's the case, then 2018 could be a down year for ford. sell, sell, sell. i don't mean to pick on ford, it's one of the best run companies in the world, but autos are autos. so the question is, how much would you pay for a company that's had pretty down sales and pretty flat earnings in the last four years, maybe at the bottom of a bust. you probably paid very little for that earnings stream. among the cheapest in the entire
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s&p 500. this pricing all comes down to the way the money management business works. that's why i have this show, to tell you about the way things really happen. most money managers are growth stock oriented. and from the stats i just give you, don't want it. ford's clearly a no growth company, get that thing away from me. therefore no growth oriented manager would want to buy the stock at any price. it just doesn't have the right characteristics for their funds. and that revealing it as a very expensive stock, indeed, not cheap at all. now let's go to tesla, everybody loves tesla, i have driven a tesla, very exciting. i love it, love it, love it. this company seems to do one thing very well, lose money. last year it lost $5 a share,
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now it's cooking. but tesla went from $18 million in capitalization to $49 million. how can it do that? that's because tesla's got revenue growth. now go back to that growth manager who sneers at ford, he takes one looking at tesla's revenue growth, and he says i got to have this stock, i've got to own it. he's not deterred by the earnings therefore as long as tesla doesn't run out of money, it can keep making cars and charging a fortune for those cars. so eventually it will make a killing. emphasis on eventually. do these growth managers care one wit that ford sold more than 3 million cars last year, while tesla sold 83,000? no, not at all, they don't even care, tesla just announced that
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it will sell more and more each quarter going forward, making last year's earnings look small. what about 5% dividend yield. that's a sign it's a red flag, they're saying, oh, boy, ford is nothing to invest in, it's returning it's money to investors, get it away from me. tesla needs every dime it has and more so, because they've got demand. and there's one big issue, solvency, until last week, those that don't like tesla, they have been putting their money where their mouth is, they have been shorting the heck out of it and shorting it 27%, and what's out there is selling short. the theory behindmost of the shortly selling? it loses so much money. but last week, tesla raised a
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lot of cash, tesla out of nowhere wrote a check for $1.8 million to tesla in exchange for 5% of its business. that money and the sheer size of the chinese investor gives the entrepreneur elan musk plenty of breathing room to reach his goal of 5,000 cars a year. no wonder he tweeted out, and i quote, stormy weather in shortsville. ive if musk hits that number, they believe there will be even more buyers as time marches on for the stock, and now we know that musk can always tap the equity market to raise more capital and additional goethe stock buyers will come in. i know what you're thinking, because i've been there, been there many times, i knee what
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you're thinking, tesla doesn't deserve it, it doesn't deserve that market capitalization, it's not turning a profit. even amazon, the classic example of successful but unprofitable company for a long time. tesla's just target cars, but this is one of those cases right out of unforgiven. and who's to judge, ibm's market capitalization is 154 billion. but 15 years ago, ibm's market cap 154 billion. go in the way back machine, if i told you 15 years ago that apple's market cap will one day be four times as high as ibm, i would have said will you get lost? first stocks are the sum of what investors are willing to pay for future earnings, betting that
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earnings will grow later. those are the ones who buy tesla stocks every day that to you seem overvalued. we hear about the market's resilience, but the buyers that stepped in today were very dimpl from the buyers who stepped in yesterday. there's no market. they're just individual markets like tesla and ford. you can't bet against a company just because a stock seems overvalued? who are you to determine that? maybe one day in the long run tesla will crash and burn. but do you have that kind of staying power? the greatest economist of all times says in the long run, we're all dead. tesla doesn't fit my cup of tea, i have great discipline, that discipline kept me out of it. you need to stop being hung up on the valuation of individual
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stock like you're some no it all, some genius, some money managers are willing to pay any amount to growth. some mobile and cloud stocks are being bid up furiously by these growth hounds. i they're right, they'll keep buying their favorites, no doubt including tesla, value is in the eye of beholder, and these growth managers are the beholders who matter. dan in wisconsin, dan? >> caller: hey, jim, boo-yah from wisconsin, home of the badgers. >> yeah, deawhat's going on the? >> i have cisco system, syy. it has a 33 cent quarterly divide dividend, which i have reinvested, the company has expanded into europe and britain. and i wanted to know your opinion if i should continue to hold -- >> i want you to hold it.
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let me give you the long and short. the only investor that is an engaged investor that we found we can follow and still make money. but it is the dominant play in the restaurant industry, and i think it's an inexpensive stock that you should hold on to. all right, guys, i'm trying to do some teaching tonight, that's what the whole first section is about. valuation, valuation is in the eye of buyer. to don't get hung up on it, you're missing big chances. let's go to the charts and find out where black gold could be going. the woulda, shoulda, coulda, those can haunt you in in market, unless you have the right tools. and it's a player that works with nine of the ten larger cloud companies holding your data and you have probably never even heard of it. so stick with cramer.
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oil, everyone's talking about it. could the price of oil be ready to roar back to the mid 50s? they had that big downturn. for months and months we have watched the same pattern, the stock gets hammered down to the low 30s, before climbing up to the 50s, before it sells off all over again. lately oil has been on a bit of an upswing, breaking out above that key $50 level when people thought this was going to go to 40 again. a good question for this market. which is why we're going off the charts for the brilliant technician w
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technician. we're going to get a better sense from her of what the stocks you often ask about are headed. broaden has noticed that crude's recent low also happened to translate into key weekly support levels. and it's also higher highs and higher lows, those patterns won't always repeat themselves, the fact is they have been repeating, but if they stay with the pat -- as long as oil can stay above its floor of support at above the $45 area. if it clears just a few more hurdles of resistance, then she wouldn't be surprised if crude ends up rallying from 50 and change, all the way up to 57. i don't know if many think that can happen. in short, think thinks the bulls have the market and it's headed higher. could the action in crude be
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pointing -- she has decided to check out some of the big name oil producers, like exxon, chevron, pioneer natural resources and ecog. two majors and two large independents. i know a lot of action here, but this is a terrific expose situation of fibinaci at work. first she points to the most recent downward swing lasts about 12 weeks, which is very similar to a couple of previous declines of 2016. they each lasted for 11 weeks, so there's some nice symmetry there. if that pattern repeats itself, this is something that happens so often, then exxon should be ready to rally.
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broaden also suggests the stock is going down. if you look at the stock's round trip from low in august of 2015, to its next low in january of 2016. that lasted for 24 weeks. okay? that's important because when exxon made its most recent low, a little less than a month ago, in the week of march 10th, that was 23 weeks from the prior low last september. in short this notion in symmetry says there's a good chance this stock's done going down. i know that's a simplistic way of looking at shocks, but these timing cycles often repeat themselves, what else does she like here? remember, there's a republicmem there's a republican she calls her the queen. both their size and their duration. a key series of nuns dmbers
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discovered by leonardo fibinnachi. excel son's currently got a floor at 79, with a second high of 76 to 77. if the stock stays above these zones, then the stock is ready to rally. broden believes there could be a rally up to 99 if it can keep the momentum going. that is a pretty bullish forecast. this is a gigantic stock, threw's a huge caveat. if exxon violates the core support, meaning if it goes below 76 and change. her whole analysis is wrong. i think it gets cheaper as the stock goes down for technicians, they often say you ought to cut
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and run. with this one in mind, when you see this pattern, let's go to chevron, let's see the weekly chart of chevron, just like we saw with the price of oil itself, chevron's got a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with chevron currently trading at 108, broden sees two lows, one is the 105 area, one is 102. a timing cycle came through in the last few days of march, right after it made its low of 106. that suggests the stock has already gone through decline mode, now we should be in rally mode. if chevron can hold it's floor of support, broden thinks this stock could be ready to roar. there's a lot more upside to royal prices. broden wouldn't be surprised if this stock goes up to $152.
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we take a look at some of the high rollers, the ones that i think people are most excited about, because they have what's known as beta. this is a weekly chart of pioneer national resources, psd. probably the most exciting energy stock in the whole oil patch. they have the gulfport region in texas and new mexico. everybody wants a piece of what these guys have. the easiest to get out, the most margin when they go sell it overseas or go sell it to any market or any refiner. broden says there's something different about pioneer's chart and she likes it a lot. she said it has larger downswings than upswings. just look at how closely these downward moves resemble each other. $23.59.
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$29.80. $26.89. $26.87. now the stock key is that this symmetry supports a much lower floor for pioneer's stocks. that floor might not seem all that comforts, but as long as the floor holds, then this stock can keep climbing. stock another 19 points to the potential upside here, but then again, the floor has to hold at 101. or the fibbinacci queen says this -- being the best american oil company, eog resources, while brodin didn't see anything in the -- the stock is taking out it's prior highs made back on march 15.
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as long as eog holds above its floor supports, isles holding at 91 to 93, as you see here, this stock could be headed to 106 in the not too distance time. then you've got a stock that will go right up here. as this is the best of the independents in the country. here's the bottom line, the charts interpreted by carolyn broaden, she likes exxon and chevron for the conservative, but her favorite charts here are for pioneer and eog. my view, if you believe oil can hold here or you believe it will keep rallying, then this is a buy. and broden will turn out to be absolutely right. forget regret. for life is yourself to miss. life and promise that is. i'll tell you why that could be the most costliest stance in your portfolio.
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why if you wait for a pull back and nothing happens? then you missed something. what if you sold a stock at a big gain and it went even higher, again, you missed something. but that doesn't mean you were totally wrong. in each case you were exerting discipline, discipline that makes you feel better when you see the market gets rocked each morning like we have been seeing recently. discipline that will help you when things really do get
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slaughters for some unforeseen reason. i have seen a lot as a broker, advisor, as charitable trust investor and as a private investor for most of the last eight years, you have to be able to say you missed it. yesterday when panera bread was screaming higher, even as we made a ton of money on it, we could have sold it too soon. especially after this big move after hours today. so you think i didn't feel that way? but as karen cramer who ran the trading desk at my own fund used to say, don't give me shoulda, coulda, woulda, give me something that works. don't worry about the winners, worry about the losers. that's when i was telling people what i was going to do for the club members and then let them
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go ahead of me because i wanted to teach people how it all worked. that was before people would frantically look up on the web what i recommended on "mad money." no, can't do that, right? look, i don't regret exposing myself to ridicule, i would like to think that i have taught people a lot about how the market really works with all it's frailness. but when you go home last night and you realize that there was an opening where there were much better prices than at the close and you couldn't fake advantage of it because you were too cautious, you still feel miserable. same with today's decline. perhaps you would regret that you did not do some dip buying. regret can be costly. not in the way you think. regret is costly, because it blinds you to the next moment. it's costly when you let a losing stock run. regret is costly when you put
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too much money to work at one level and it drops again. but regret about not buying stock at the best moment of the day, regret about not holding on when you have a big profit? worry about losing money, not making money. you cut out the heavy losses and the winners take care of themselves. my point here is a simple one, i would rather keep my bat on the shoulder, knowing as warren buffett says there's no good calls in investors. sure it would be great to invest in every buy, in every moment of newfound weakness. that's impossible, no one's that good. the better thing to do is to wait until the odds favor you. you can always hit on an 18 and draw three and beat the dealer, who turns out to have two face cards and say to me, see? i told you i had to hit on that 18, that was the right thing to do. but most of the time hitting on
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18 is a terrible idea, because the odds against you, same with investing, most of the time you get a win, but most of the time that's a respect by for failure. wait until you have maybe a better hand with more possibilities. so you miss it, big deal, you didn't expose yourself when you thought the market should be making a lot of head way, you didn't expose yourself because of the season and the week and last week's mark up that the stock will go down. i learned that much, don't ask me to unlearn it now. linda in new york. >> hi, jim. linda. >> caller: i have a question for you at ultra, i have watched this stock for a few years and i'm wondering if you think the stock will split. >> when you split a stock, it does not create more value. second retail has come down tremendously the last few days, ultra stays out there because
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it's one of the stocks like este lauder who has the selfie generation going for it. you've got to wait for this stock to break down a little bit. it's been hanging in there, if you don't get the break, then you missed it, and that's okay, it's a high flyer, it's not going to split any time soon. that's not been their orientation to date. peter in florida. how are you? >> caller: pretty good. i'm calling you today about disney, i kind of got a two-part question, i was going to see how you feel about disney going forward in here and if you did not have a position in disney, where would you be looking to enter? >> i would buy half my disney stock and hope it goes up down to buy more. but if it doesn't go down, then you get more profit. half now, half later. don't give me the shoulda, coulda, woulda, give me something that works, don't worry about your misses, stop
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>> some things bear repeating, in an environment like this where people expect the federal reserve to raise rates twice this year, maybe more, it changes your approach to high yielding stocks, even though interest rates have been dropping like a stone of late. bond markets make these higher rates alternative more attra attracti attractive. there's one type of real estate trust that's been building, that's the data center reits. the best data storage real estate -- cyrusone, or cone, it's a high growth reit that specializes in owning data center properties, and the stock has been on fire lately, even up here, the stock still sports a
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3.6% yield which isn't bad. so can the data center theme keep propelling the stock higher? let's take a look with the president and ceo of this company. >> you can call me wojo. >> wojo, there was a company that got downgraded, they said they see the data centers slowing. i read everything about your company, i don't think you would agree with that analysis, would you? >> no, i wouldn't. all we have seen is continued buy signals, we have come across our biggest year ever since we ipo'd. we were up 33% last year and we expect more of the same heading into 2017 and actually for the next several years. >> and that's accelerated revenue growth because of accelerated demand for data centers? >> there's big company nice, and
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they're growing now at 50, 60%. the run way for continued growth should continue for probably this next decade. >> many things in your location are actually sold out and you had to do more building in order to meet the demand? >> that's a great problem to have, we have been chasing our customer demand for the last year and a half. and hopefully by the end of this year, we'll have a lot of additional capacity online and continue our growth into 2018. >> i want people to understand this, why cloud companies don't necessarily want to build their own real estate and tell you to do it? why is that? >> well, we tell the, our customers that they should been farmers. everyone can basically plant their own corn and tomatoes and they can do a pretty good job at it. and we collectively outside
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source to the farmers for that. we're selling to the largest companies in the world. they don't need to build and manage their own digital factories, they did in the past when that product wasn't variable. but now there's no reason for them to do it. we can build it faster and cheaper and at better quality. >> you've got it seems like a hammer lock on the health care vertical. talk about a company that shouldn't be in there building data centers. how did you get that particular tie in? >> over time you just continue to prosecute your strategy to your customers. our focus on health care is basically driven by the fact that about 15% of all the data that's going to be driven in the next five years is going to grow alongside the growth of data for health care.
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>> is that health care records or could it one day where genomics. >> meeting customers today on the acquisition we had earlier this month and talking to a company that's doing work on molecular synthesis work. and their business is booming and we expect there's going to be lots of additional questions like that, whether it's health care records or genomic sequencing or ju. >> you have 300 ark kers hu00 virginia because they've got the cheaper power and that matters in data, doesn't it? >> actually the deal that we just closed in north carolina, that's actually one of the cheapest rates in the country at 4 cents, and that's really attractive to customers so.megas
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taking some off and winn is my favorite in that group, but mgm has come along a lot and seems to have hit bottom. >> boo-yah cramer. tom in colorado. >> good to have you. >> caller: i want to thank you personally for your help in my investment goals. i'm also a part of your charitable trust. my stock is key corp, and as you know, best -- my stock is keycorp and as you know, they just purchased first niagra financial group. >> right. well, tom, i got to tell you, as you know, because you're a club member, it's bye, bye, bier. here's the problem with key, a lot of investors say that the stock is going down, i like key.
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sam in pennsylvania. >> caller: i am calling about therapeutics md. >> they just had some great phase three data for the fast on and that concludes "the lightning round." ading knowledg that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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as my loyal viewers already know, i'm a huge fan of breakups that help unlock value. sometimes businesses are just too big or too unwieldy or too uncomplicated to get big on wall street. that's why splitting them up into pieces makes each piece moore valuable. biogin is a all-starring neurotech titans. the company also has an attractive hemophilia franchise, so biogin announced it will
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expand its business. in february of this year, it finalized the split into a new company called biovaritive. since then this stock has been on fire. rallying more than 23% on no real news. i think that's the power of a breakup. like any company specific kas catalyst as it can give you specific gains. biovaritek had a spectacular move in a very short period of time. could this stock have more room to run or is it done? now that biovaritek is it's own company, i think we should stop and take a closer look. this company is all about home mow feela, so for those of you who don't know about home mow
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feela, it's a devastating disease that prevents blood clotting. which means that even a paper cut can result in tremendous bleeding. plus it can also cause extreme bruising, spontaneous bleeding and joint disease. there's actually two different types of hemophilia. at first since these treatments got approved, it's sales have been growing like a weed. biovaritiv is not the only game in town, as other companies are close to getting their own ho hemophilia drugs on the market. how come biogen wanted to spin it off in the first place? most of biogen's business is --
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world class hemophilia franchises and more exciting compounds in the pipeline. the thing is hemophilia is a blood disorder, that doesn't have much in common with bioveritiv. it employs totally different kinds of doctors, it's not necessarily having much gain by keeping these two businesses under the same roof, but management figured that by splitting them up, each company could focus more effort on what it does best. also these home home mow kneel w home mow feela is a pretty rare disease, word wide a little more than 151,000 people have type a hemophilia. but because there are so few
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ways of effectively treating this disease, the global market could only be worth $10 billion. it's the kind of dangerous rare conditions that people or their insurance companies will pay a fortune to treat. that's really the key to what biovera ts ark bioverativs doing. the company is working on five preclinical trials. although we don't know if these drugs will be approved. and even if they are, it will take years for these drugs to get all the way through fda approval. for the foreseeable future, though, this story is about those two drugs that have already been approved and they were approved back in 2014. these two here byes give hemophiliacs the blood proteins the proteins the body needs to
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form clots. they're both based on revolutionary technology that makes them longer lasting than previous hemophilia drugs. a half life of 82 hours, versus 23 hours than previous hemophilia drugs. bioverativ expects an 18% growth rate. what's driving these numbers? the company believes it can get more hemophilia patients to take its drugs. right now it has only 25% market share in hemophilia b. so there's much more room to expand. much more important, management feels they can -- consistently take one drug or the other as part of a prophylactic treatment
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regimen. if that were all there were to it, i would obviously recommend bioverativ without hesitation, i would pound the table. but it's rarely like that. unfortunately, this company's got a real problem. the hemophilia business is so good and, remember, the insurance companies pay for it, that many other companies are trying to get a piece of it. while bioverativ has drugs based on the old standard care, the competition has started to get more innovative. shyer already has an active hemophilia treatment on the market. when you look at the pipeline, you see serious competitors sharpening their knives, including roche.
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working with a gene therapy that's suboptimal for biovi rshs ativ only has very early stage therapies in its pipeline, that means most of the upcoming catalyst for the rest of the year, centered around data readouts from the company's competitors. if any of bioverativ's stock -- this means we're entering into an extended period where we could end up getting gooden good news about the competition and no real good news about bioverativ's own pipeline, that's not good. the company is going to report its results later this month. in the drug business, we care a lot more about the future pipeline prospects than current sales, on the other hand,
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bioverativ is trading -- especially when you consider that other biotechs can't even be valued because they don't have any earnings. i think biov ooerks rativ has a lot going for it. including a very inexpensive stock, but i've got to worry about that competitive landscape when it comes to treating hemophilia. you've got my blessings to speculate on this one, because of the stock, it's simply too risky to be a normal investment. stick with cramer.
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