tv Options Action CNBC April 9, 2017 6:00am-6:31am EDT
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hi there, we're live at the nasdaq market site. here's what's coming up on the show. >> look up in the sky it's a bird. it's a plane. >> no it's just shares of amazon. but if you missed the move, relax. we have a way to buy it for just $20. plus talk about a bank job. >> this is a robbery. >> after a run financials have under performed the market this year. and chip stocks are on fire, but there's something in the charts
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that's indicating the run might be done, and we'll tell you how to cash in. the action begins right now. >> let's get right to because the banks have gone from hot to not, financials the worst performing sector in the last month down 9%. so could there be more trouble ahead for the space. let's get into money right now. dan. >> what's interesting to me is we've been talking about how the snp50 is up about 10 merse. i guess more importantly the. they're showing very poor relative performance. we speak about it on this desk almost every night this year.
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obviously it has a lot to do with this legislative agenda, which hasn't got on track yet. one thing that is really driving the banks, though, i believe is deregulation. and that could come from executive order. and we've already seen the president do that on a couple of occasions. but i think the main point here is why i think going into bank earnings next week, a lot of bank ceo's are not going oo to be particularly clear. >> one of the things i'll point out is these stocks if you look at them of any kind of historic metric, certainly they're inspensive for the market. most of these things are trading in the low double digits, sometimes maybe 12 or 14% less in estimates. but the fact is they've been pretty cheap for quite a while, and this boost has made them a
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little built more expensive than they've historically been. it's going to have an impact what they say on earnings unless they address that issue specifically. >> on financials while they might be cheaper than historical measures, they're in principle are not going to achieve the high ires, than they have in other markets. we know it's been a year of defense. and everything like industrials, financials -- financials peaked and when they broke out and there's a lot of high fiving, you were losing. we almost made a new intermediate low today in rates. right. >> it's just a bad place to be. >> well, the rates thing is really important. think about all the
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disappointing days we've had talking about gdp, auto sales. there's a lot of things that actually could go wrong and a couple of things that could go right. if he decides to do deregulation by sbrekative order i think that trades a lot of the poppial s on the campaign. 50% of the xl app is going to -- if you want to hold onto them over the next couple of weeks we could see some volativity. to me today when the xlf was trading 2360 paying 27 cents,
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it's a little bit under 1% for the stocks today. you talk about everything on a daily basis coming out of washington, this looks like a very cheap way to edge at least port folio bank stocks. and i'll mention this, 1%, taets what you're risking, 1%. i think between now and april 21st, you're going to have a 1% down day. >> would you make that a longer bet, since you're negative on the group? >> well, generally speaking i do favor -- if you're going to be long options, longer dated options definitely makes a lot of sense because the decay is less. it's likely if you're going to gelt some movement, then earnings are the movement you're going to get. so to me i can see why you would do that. >> that's to be determined. for now we know that it was a
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trap. anyone who's in it now is not liking what they're seeing. >> i'll just mention that xlf is trading $23.60. if you look out the bank america options are more expensive than the xlf ones. >> it has idiosyncratic risk, really. >> and even the big weightings and the big -- >> we're talking about the chips reserve suving more than 45% in just 12 months and trading pennies away from its all-time high.
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micron up 171%%. and the options market has been sizzling for one of these names surging 25% this week alone. they think the lead could be coming to an ended. >> what we have is a situation where if you look at the subindustry, go back to s & p 500, there are a couple of things i would just keep in mind if one is thinking that maybe this can continue. and the first would be this. if we know that up trends and down trends are characterized by counter trend moves, the up trends have not had a check back to trend in ten months. now here's a statistic for you.
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since the beginning of data for the sem conductor defense, there's only been one instance where it has not checked back to trend. the question is do you trim a great winner like this? so at this point i'm thinking it's a bit too far too fast. there's all the news that you could want which is there's a lot of mma coming, that individual securities are not only going to do well on their own, but the self-driving car is changing the way things are going. and at some point every's -- and trade is crowded, and there's not a lot of up sides. nviddia in particular has all the look and feel of a topping operation. >> from a fundamental per pe
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perspecti perspective he's right. they're in a business that's going to be likely successful in the future. but from a technical perspective i can see where he's talking about it being stretched. i think what you can do is look out to june and sell the 80s against it for 8 cents, and that will basically give you protection out until june. obviously there's a lot of other thing things here. the market has had quite a run since trump was elected. and we chemotalking about whether or if there's going to be a pull back for this name or for the market generally. >> the market's kind of soured in recent days with the additional revenues of the switch but at a lower margegen. >> those are the things to
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watch. you know, that's just kind of like going like this in the air. this is a little different right now. there is a lot of competition. there's a lot of mma. they're going after these guys in the space. and then when you think about that double top made in december and then it's making lower. >> you've got the gap underneath. >> you're good. listen, i said this testimony the other night and i got so much hate mail on twitter. >> all of the fundamental stretch the company does possess are in the future. it's not going to be next week or next year. so basically that growth opportunity is quite a ways away, i and if investors look and don't see those returns coming in quarter after quarter, that might be the reason they say you know what, we're losing our patience here. >> check out our website, and
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while you're there do check out the super cool newsletter. millions of you already have, so don't wait. in the meantime here's what's coming up next. >> i ain't paying no 50 cents for no coke. >> well, that's too bad. we'll tell you how high some traders see it going. plus, it's amazon's world and we're just living in it. but if you missed your move in the stock, we've got a way to buy it for less, and we'll explain how when options actions returns. >> stay ahead of the headlines and today's events in today's profits. sign-up now. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains
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so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. at crowne plaza we know business travel isn't just business. there's this. 'a bit of this. why not? your hotel should make it easy to do all the things you do. which is what we do. crowne plaza. we're all business, mostly.
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what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. welcome back to "options action." i'm dominic khouw. amazon ended in an 8 day winning streak yesterday in a week where we saw three new record highs in succession which means amazon has made 11 record highs. now, despite the pause the total market capital of the company
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has increased around $6 billion this week alone. now, to put that in perspective that's nearly as much market cap or as much as the total market cap of khol's as well. they translates into a whopping $71 billion in market value or roughly adding the size of american express. but can that last? the average target price is just 8% of where we are now. so after a blistering run like this, there are at least a few traders who are feeling more cautious about a potential upside. malista, the stock has reached what some call overbought levels. that doesn't happen very often statistically speaking so amazon one of those debates going
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forward. back to you. >> if you're simply looking to buy, mike's got a way to do that for less. let's look at our stock replacement strategy. >> this is more conservative one. we're still looking for more situations where we're trying to protect recent gains. the second one is stocks that might have a high valuation. and finally capital tron straints. amazon is a very high value stock. maybe there's a cheaper way to take a long bet. this is where we're trying to identify where the stock could go. right here we can see the stock closed right around $900. what we can see -- by the way, this is training right on the highs. we can talk to carter about this, but i was looking at the
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925 level, because i think if it's going to break out, that's the number you're going to look for. sell the 1,000 strike call against it and that's going to give you more than 10% to the upside. obviously the net price here just over $18. so you get to commit less capital to the trade. if it does happen to pull back, you're obviously not going to suffer those same losses but you still get to participate in the upside. >> so let's talk about the levels. so what we know is what, the stock just broke out the new highs. and so the stock is now trading up 5% in five months, that's not extended. so to put it in context the market is actually up 8%. so how is that extended, meaning all-time highs is an irrelevant thing. amazon is not extended at all.
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i like it, and i like the trade. >> listen, the stocks up 85% from its february. i'm just telling you that we know -- >> it's not about that. when you have a stock that has 800 p, 400p, it's not about evaluation. if you get into charts there's not a steep angle. >> but can i tell you what is steep is gaining the market cap, and we're actually witnessing things we've never seen before isthin market. >> and there's never been a stock grow like this. there's never been an asset this large growing at this rate. >> people recognize this not as a business but all business. when we think about the risk that something like netflix might potentially face, amazon's
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one of the flas places you're going to look at. when you're dealing with microsoft and oracle and their cloud business, we're concerned. >> do you think the chart looks -- >> no, i think it checks back to the 850. a lot of people think this is going to be the first trillion dollar company, not apple. but apple also had 20% -- >> do you like my strategy because you wouldn't bother participating in amazon? >> no, it's fine. >> it's a $50 decline from where the stock is, with and we're going to be risking 150 of that amount. >> it's a classic oa trade. >> a classic oa trade. >> up next.
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hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade hi, i'm frank. i take movantik for oic, opioid-induced constipation. had a bad back injury, my doctor prescribed opioids which helped with the chronic pain, but backed me up big-time. tried prunes, laxatives, still constipated... had to talk to my doctor. she said, "how long you been holding this in?" (laughs)
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that was my movantik moment. my doctor told me that movantik is specifically designed for oic and can help you go more often. don't take movantik if you have a bowel blockage or a history of them. movantik may cause serious side effects, including symptoms of opioid withdrawal, severe stomach pain and/or diarrhea, and tears in the stomach or intestine. tell your doctor about any side effects and about medicines you take. movantik may interact with them causing side effects. why hold it in? have your movantik moment. talk to your doctor about opioid-induced constipation. if you can't afford your medication, astrazeneca may be able to help. at crowne plaza we know business travel isn't just business. there's this. 'a bit of this.
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why not? your hotel should make it easy to do all the things you do. which is what we do. crowne plaza. we're all business, mostly. oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. welcome back to "options
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action." it's time for the outside call where we take a look back at some of our winning trades. >> so what i'm thing uthere is we're going to ultimately get back to the high. i think it's catching up with a group that's starting to outperform inmarket. >> they were trading around 95 cents, so they'll probably be a little bit cheaper on monday. that's an expensive way to make a bullish bet. >> coke shares are up 2% since then. so what are you seeing in the charts now? >> that's pretty modest. what do we know? we know that since march 1 coke is out to perform the market and staples out to outperform coke. >> honestly, we're probably
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looking for turns better than that. >> all right, well we can't all be winners. back in february dan said the run in johnson and johnson was over. >> when the stock was trading 122 today, you could buy the april, and that breaks you down so you're risking. >> but shares have risen 3% since that call, so dan what do you do now? >> well, they're up more. this is one we've updated at least online. when you're out about 350 poefrs your premium, you've got to cut it. the probability of it getting absolutely worthless is pretty high at that point. at this point you have to make a decision. do you want to just keep a lotto ticket for earnings, but i don't
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expect -- >> i understand it might make sense to sit there and say you want to cut your losers. that's obviously good trading advice. but when options decay, you do need to sit there and assess your option. if the catalyst still lies ahead of you, that doesn't necessarily mean you want to get ahead of it. >> coming up next your tweets. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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hthis bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade welcome back to "options action." time to take your tweets. first one is from peter. what's your take on this? >> well, i would say is the price of these call options is as low as they've ever been, and we're trading at the all-time highs. i think it's going to -- >> i think it's playing with a
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break outright at a former high of 110. i'm a buyer. >> well, yeah, i would just say break out at that 110 is going straight to 120. >> all right, next up can you ask carter what you he thinks of the gold chart? >> i think i was sitting here about three weeks ago and saying gold was under some pressure. but that's wrong. i would abandoned shorts and be on on the long sides. >>lic r look, it's a point to safety when you look at gop issues going on. it makes sense for that reason. typically, though, i'm not much of a gold bug. >> time now for the final call. carter. >> well, semis have come a long way if you want to take profits, and i would particularly wary of
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n vidda. >> all right, lookzs like our time has expired. i'm melissa will he. we'll see you back here next friday. meantime mad money starts right now. >> announcer: you're watching a paid presentation for veggie bullet, brought to you by veggie bullet, llc. from the makers of the world-famous nutribullet comes the next innovation in whole-food nutrition extraction. introducing the veggie bullet, the world's first cyclonic spiralizer and lightning-fast food prep accelerator. now you can spiralize nutrient-rich whole foods in seconds for incredible pasta recipes, like zucchini spaghetti and meatballs or ribbon spirals for great lasagnas, even the family favorite -- curly fries. the secret is the veggie bullet's cyclonic-action spiralizer and high-torque motor with razor-sharp stainless-steel
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