tv Fast Money CNBC April 10, 2017 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
5:00 pm
and see it's actually creating quite a few, and increasing wages, too. that's all a great sign. thank you both for joining us. prert you explaining a little more what's happening there. that does it for "closing bell." better hurry up and get those warehouse jobs. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on fast, it is the ultimate market showdown between growth and value stocks. there's a clear winner so far this year. but is the trend here to stay. the chart masters are here to break it down. the manager of a hedge fund crushing the market said this could be your best chance to buy one of the hottest trades. snapchat is reigning supreme as the most-used apps for teens. we've got a special report. first we start with tesla, the stock on an absolute tear,
5:01 pm
hitting an all-time high today, up nearly 2,000% from 2010 at $17 a share. its market cap, now well above general motors this morning. the rally coming after an upgrade from piper jaffray. increasing the price target to 368 a share. they joined apple, amazon, netflix, to be core investors. is tesla the new must-own stock. brian kelly, you own it. >> i do own it. and is it a must-own stock? i think so. a disruptive stock. for me, my view on this company has been, if you want to play the mega trend of the decarbonization of the electric grid, then tesla's your play. we know that we're no longer going to be burning fossil fuel to produce energy. tesla is the wa i to do it. they're starting with the cars. they have the batteries. they have the solar plants. they're going to put it on your
5:02 pm
roof. they've got the entire thing. this is a mega trend that will continue for the next five to ten years. there's really not many ways to play it except for tesla. >> it's a momentum stock, a story stock, where you can't plug in numbers to a valuation model. >> right. so i find that very, very difficult to own. all those things that i just don't get comfort in -- it was a must-own up to here. but i can't jump on the bandwagon here. great product. you know, i just can't make it work. >> snippets from the piper jaffray note. these are the most interesting ones. you need to employ creative valuation methodology. they don't have any -- they have considerable uncertainty in their revenue earnings and cash flow estimates. >> leap of faith. >> i mean, the simple value -- >> but in the note is, people love the stock. people love the product.
5:03 pm
that's enough. for now. >> do they? is it the product or the age of change? it's hastings at netflix and zuckerberg at facebook. apple's dying on the vine because they've got a man who isn't a visionary. look at elon musk, he's a visionary. you're not paying a premium valuation, here you're paying crazy multiples. you say to yourself, people are investing in the age of change. the age of change is elon musk. the celebrity type sort of wall street status, that people are buying into. it's pure and simple. it's not only product right now. that will come later. we've got a lot of time. look at netflix, how long it took netflix to really work in that strategy. right now they're being valued on, let's say next year's subscription models. but at the end of the day, we're investing in musk here, not a battery. >> a few years ago we went on a date, remember that? >> oh.
5:04 pm
>> now i recall the dig. >> what did we do? >> we test-drove a model x. >> how long were we in the ka are? >> 45 minutes. >> and when you got out of that car, what did we both say? >> what an amazing car. >> amazing car. they have the car for seven months. that to me was the ridiculous part of the note, it took seven months to figure out it was an unbelievable car. it took us 45 minutes. i know you have to take a tremendous leap of faith. i get it. but is it a must-own stock? yes. has it gotten ahead of itself? perhaps. where do you trade on the long side? around 275 is the top. but people are missing the boat. bk has it spot-on. this is not a car company, this is a you have to believe in me. we made the same argument for amazon for almost a decade. >> facebook, too, for that matter. if you remember when facebook came out, people said, you know what, this company doesn't have
5:05 pm
it, they have a young ceo who doesn't know how to operate on wall street. >> this isn't a hope story of facebook anymore. they actually make money. >> right. >> it's a very different -- >> would you go out tomorrow and buy tesla at this level? >> probably not. i mean, as a trader, i would wait for a pullback. >> i think you need a pullback. there's a wait-and-see sort of philosophy as a trader and investor. there's been a tail wind of positive news over the past few weeks. you don't run out at the end of that tailwind and buy the stock. you wait for a pull boiblg. i think we'll see one. >> i mentioned in video, piper jaffray uses it as a valuation barometer in coming up with a valuation of 15 times. and video trades are 20 times. the average peer is 12. there you are, 15, tesz la, bam >> that's fine.
5:06 pm
the whole note was somewhat confusing. in video, it was a momentum stock. but i haven't given up on that. i think a better momentum stock that has lost its way is a name like under armour, for example. it had tremendous momentum and competition catches up. growth goes away. >> this just started. we've been in a three-year sideways trend for tesla. look at under armour, amazon, it went on for years before they actually cracked. even in video, had six months to a year of massive runs. we're just breaking out now. >> yeah. >> we're at the point right now with tesla, i believe that. but i think we get a pullback before we get the massive uptick. investors are waiting for the execution legacy of management. i look at the style and say, he's a guy, he's going to be probably one of the world's best ceos. take steve jobs and he'll take it leaps and bounds forward if
5:07 pm
he can execute this straty for the next ten years. >> here's the question, at these levels, who would go out and buy tesla here? you would? >> not at these levels. >> too much good news priced in. >> kudos to you two. >> i would not buy. >> i would hope for a pullback. it's hard for me -- >> you know, isn't that essentially deciding to buy the stock? >> not really. because i have a lot of profit in it. if it pulls back 5% on me, i'm okay, as opposed if i bought it tomorrow, i'm immediately down 5%. >> all right. so of these guys here -- >> and quickly, i'll tell you the main reason why the answer to that question is yes, it didn't trade up today on huge volume, it traded 7 million shares. typically trades $5.5 million. if you said it was up 3.5% today, i would have said it looks like all the short's covered. time to pull the rip cord. you haven't seen that yet. >> let's settle the debate with
5:08 pm
the man who said years ago that tesla was the new amazon. it is time to get into growth. >> let's address what you were talking about. how can it be, right? people put these statistics out about sales per car, and compared to ford. but let's talk about what you were last talking about as a group, waiting for pullback. we just had one. in fact, tesla dropped from the february high to the march low 17%. right here. this is a huge move. it looks like nothing on the chart. but you actually have a little bit of a soft. what's important is the breakout. we've had four distinct moves that each have been three months and each have been 60%. so you've got one right here, about three months, and about 60%. one right here, about three months, and about 60%. one right here, about three months and about 60%.
5:09 pm
and one right here, from which we did pull back 17%. we had the pullback. now, of course, what we've got is, a fairly well-defined breakout. and it's not extended after all, because it's been doing nothing for three years. it's not about a peg ratio or enterprise value, or price-to-sales, or cap m model. it's just a strong stock that got repriced aggressively, rested for three years, and now is starting to assert itself and has a pullback. let's go to the broader subject of growth versus value. netflix was up today, amazon was up. let's look at a few charts. this is the year-to-date picture. we know the stats. actually, when you look at it this way, the lines are very clear, right? we know that, yes, this is the winter. very obvious. right? and we know that this is the loser, right there. a spread between growth and value. and yet that's not what was
5:10 pm
expected at the beginning of the year. it was exactly the opposite. one way to look at this is to hold the s&p, the green line, as a constant. now, if i clear these, what we've got is, that same chart. but i've held the s&p as a constant to actually expose the relative performance. it doesn't mean so much on a short-term basis, but on a long-term basis that we're going to see, back to the original, and then back to the relative. that's important. now i'm going to pull this back a little bit further. let's go to one year. what we've got here is this is the i-shares. you can buy these ets. it is value on top. just a little bit ahead of the market overall. and growth on the bottom. when you compare things like that, it looks like it's all the same. it's about the trajectory they've traveled. if i take the same barometer and hold the green line as a constant, look at what is revealed. when with ehold the green line as a constant, what we're going to see is -- now, this is the key. what happened here is, with eknow we had an election.
5:11 pm
and there was this great euphoria into industrials, i.e., value came to life and all the tweets about him coming after amazon and google and so forth. rush into value and rush out of growth. if i go back to the absolute, and now put it back to the relative, it really tells you the trajectory we traveled, which is this big move up in value, and this big move down in growth. but now it's all reversing. let's go a little bit further. and let's pull this back since the bottom of the bull market. and what we know, of course, is that the winner by a long shot is growth. now, let's do the same exercise and hold this as a constant. hold the s&p as a constant, and the hope was, yes, this is, of course, value on the bottom, that somehow value is coming to life. but industrials aren't working, financials aren't working. the only part of the value i like is yield. utilities, reits and so forth. i'm sticking with growth.
5:12 pm
>> i think we've got to invite carter over. he's going to bring the chair in. thank you. >> let's talk about that. tesla first. you had a pullback. 17%. and then it broke out to a new high after going sideways for three years. do you buy there? >> i would -- >> or do you want another pullback? >> i want another minor pullback. >> so you're in? >> you guys are talking tesla. i switched it over to something else that's relevant. >> if somebody's looking to good in today -- >> the floor will be the level from which you broke out. and there isn't any valuation, no way to talk about that, no point in talking about it. which, you know what, it leaves some parts of the market out. you can stare at the party with your nose pressed up against the glass and say, why can't i go in there, or just go in there and b
5:13 pm
buy tesla. >> what could go wrong? >> i'll go first. do i own it? have i any point in the last five years? no. what a disaster. let's start with you. have you bought it? >> i have not. >> you're in the same disaster category. anyone else own it? >> yeah. who's the buyer here? >> there are inkr emental buyers. but i interrupted you. >> explain to me the definition of growth versus value. what does one need to be a growth and -- what is it? >> if you go to s&p 500, they changed that criteria. the growth in value index is -- apple's been in and out of each category four or five times. >> earnings growth? >> real growth shops don't care with earnings, it's about top line. is your gross margin forever holding up? for some people, it doesn't matter. if you were really stuck on a permanent sort of cap m basis in the dividend discount, you can never own it. that's a shame.
5:14 pm
that's a big shame. somebody's going to find alzheimer's, and never owning it? >> quick question. decade, 10, 11 years? >> he's on fire with tesla. >> you were in there 45 minutes, you said it was great. >> i love this car. it's unbelievable. >> tesla or netflix? >> oh! >> wait a minute! >> if you were to go out five years and couldn't sell, which one would you rather own for five years? >> i would rather own netflix. >> really? >> tesla. >> why? >> because netflix is going to be sold and taken out by somebody big. it will be a crazy valuation. >> you would rather invest on the promise of a takeout than an actual -- >> look, i think that netflix is set up. we're going to get a report next week. we're going to talk about this
5:15 pm
next week. they'll report earnings and it will be a blowout quarter, again. >> how about five years from now? >> they'll be gone anyway. they'll probably be taken out within probably a year. >> it seems like a binary bet. >> guy, what's your question? >> my question is, what happened tonight? what happened to carter? what have you done with him? it's unbelievable. >> let me ask you, do you have the most conviction in a stock like tesla? it sounds like this is one of your most highly -- >> the subject is, the hard thing to do is the right thing to do, and it's really hard to buy tesla here. the hard thing to do is right there. you know the hardest thing about buying tesla? it's the right thing to do. >> wow. thank you. >> impressive. >> yeah.
5:16 pm
coming up, given what happened to that guy on that united airlines flight, made the bar just a tad low. what it could mean for the stocks. a new study shows that teens use snap more than any other media platform. but it justify the tech valuation? one of the hottest trades of the past year about to get hotter, according to one hedge fund manager beating the markets right now, he's here to explain. much more "fast money" still ahead. ead. or keeping a hotel's guests connected.
5:17 pm
5:18 pm
5:19 pm
add that premium channel, and watch the show everyone's talking about, tonight. and the bill you need to pay? do it in seconds. because we should fit into your life, not the other way around. go to xfinity.com/myaccount i kont know how much time we have left in the show. >> not much. >> i got to go to whole foods markets. to cleanse myself. wfm. >> even with the blindfold on, guy adami talking about whole foods up about 10%. saying it wants to speed up the turn-around to consider a possible sale. guy, this was your final trade on that day. >> yeah. we've actually talked about this for a while. valuation was ridiculous for a while. it's a stock basically held $30 for the last seemingly year or so. if felt like it was banging
5:20 pm
ashds the bottom. the last quarter wasn't a complete disaster. seems like margins are starting to at least stabilize a little bit. we talked about the chance for somebody to come in and make some noise in the stock. that's obviously what happened. you've seen consolidation in the space. i think the risk/reward for whole foods especially after today sets up really well. >> i kind of agree. this is a pretty aggressive filing. they've taken a very big stake. company somewhat vulnerable. it's up a nice pop today. when you step back and look how much it's come down, i think it's actually -- >> would you own it? >> i would, actually. >> you would? >> i'll look at it tomorrow. it's not a great time to lbo thing, so i don't know that that's going to happen right away, but it's a great franchise. >> after this, i think is a buy. when you think about it, they have a lot of competition out there. but all that junk has been priced into it.
5:21 pm
now you have something changed. you have a risk/reward ratio. i think you own it. >> food deflation has been plaguing this industry for a while. we saw the costco report. they're going to say, it's still a little expensive for me of the maybe i take it in for a trade. but i wouldn't be in here head-first at these levels. up next, at&t making a billion-dollar acquisition today. ver eson and dish have both been making similar deals to get an edge. those stocks were up initially on the back of the news but sold off laet in the session. >> that's actually what's the most interesting thing about today. at&t doubles the stock price to buy this spectrum. they have to use it once they buy it, they have to use it, i believe it's within 12 months or so. a lot of these companies are shopping it around. so dish, sprint was another one that was up pre-market and completely reversed.
5:22 pm
they all reversed at significant resistance areas. so the trader in me says there's something that doesn't smell right there. but i'll give you one that did act very well all day, which is century link, ctl. 9% dividend. they don't necessarily own the spectrum, but they own a lot of fiber. think about what at&t is doing, they're solving the last mile problem, getting that high-speed network right to your phone. but you still need those big pipes, the big fiber networks throughout the nation. and century i think is the wa i to play this. >> or just donate to at&t. they've got this spectrum, they've got the content now, right? they've got directv, they pay a dividend of almost 5% here. >> i think the directv deal was about three years ahead of their time. i know the stock hasn't acted in kind. but you have to give them time. i don't think there's significant down side here.
5:23 pm
maybe $38. valuation isn't stupid. i think you can own at&t here at 40 1/2. >> at&t, verizon, these guys are losing phone share to the likes of sprint and t-mobile. this is the 5g play. i would say, look, i wa rather own a t-mobile here, in the fact that they're going to be get taken out by sprint or comcast. i would stay away from sprint, however, because if sprint doesn't get t-mobile, sprint goes a lot lower. >> maybe a cable company wants to buy it. >> they might be able to at that point. >> why can't at&t just squeeze them out. >> much more access to capital. >> they can bring the prices down to an extent where it doesn't matter. sprint, t-mobile is much more able to be competitive. >> but at&t could lose money. >> it's the new subscribers, the -- >> why can't they drop the prices?
5:24 pm
>> i don't think they really care. i think they're investing for the future, not for market share. >> if market share is being taken away from them, they care a lot. that's their job. what do teens love when it comes to social media? snapchat. but it may not matter to advertisers. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. one of the hottest trades is about to get hotter. that's what a hedge fund manager who's crushing the market says. he will reveal what it is and how you can cash in. plus -- >> performing together with a single united purpose. >> believe it or not, despite united's pr nightmare, airline travelers have never been happier. and that could spell clear skies ahead for the airlines. we'll explain when "fast money" returns. returns. opportunities aren't ways obvious.
5:25 pm
cme group can help you navigate riskand capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drivforward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. thithis is the w new york.e? think again. we arnew roads and bridges.s all across the state. new mass transit. new busiss friendly environment. new wer taxes. and new university partnerships to grow the businees of tomorrow today. learmore at esd.ny.gov
5:28 pm
i can't wait for her to have that college experience that i had. the classes, the friends, the independence. and sie we planned for it, that student debt is the one exrience, i'm glad she'll miss when you have the right financial advisor, life can be brilliant. ameriprise various: (shouting) heigh! ho! ( ♪ ) it's off to work we go! woma on the gulf coast, new exxonmobil projects are expected to create over 45,000 jobs. and each job created by the energy industry supports two oers in the community. altogether, the industry supports over 9 million jobs nationwide. these are jobs thanatural gas is helping make happen, all while reducing america's emissions.
5:30 pm
we're live at the nasdaq market site. snap's reigning supreme as the most popular social media platform among teens. when it comes to advertisers, they could be missing the mark. one dow stock could surge to new all-time highs in the next month. we start off with the airlines. in the spotlight today, for both good and bad reasons. phil lebeau is in chicago with the story. >> melissa, we've been talking about it all day, it is the talk of social media. it is this video of a passenger on a united airlines flight from
5:31 pm
chicago to louisville last night. he was being bumped off the flight, was asked if he would leave for $800. he said no. they called in airport security. they dragged him off the plane. one of the officers involved in this has been placed on leave according to the chicago aviation authorities here. and as you take a look at this, keep in mind how united has responded. first they issued a statement and then a follow-up today from the ceo saying this is an upsetting event for all of us here at united. i apologize for having to reaccommodate these passengers. our team is moving with a sense of urgency to work with the authorities and conduct our own detailed review of what happened. we are also reaching out to this passenger to talk directly to him to address and resolve this situation. take a look at shares of united. by the way, they were up today, which goes against what a lot of people were saying, which is, this is terrible pr, the stock's going to be under pressure, huh huh, that's not what moves airline stocks. keep in mind the annual report
5:32 pm
going on for 27 years. alaska number one, followed by delta and virgin america. united is in eighth. last year, best year ever in terms of airlines service. fewest denied boardings, lowest number of complaints when it comes to mishandled bags. ironic that report comes out on a day that this video surfaced on what happened on the united flight last night. >> phil lebeau in chicago with that story. let's look at the chart behind the airline quality ratings. customer satisfaction, the highest level ever. ker usely enough, high satisfaction doesn't necessarily translate to high or good stock performance. delta, united, down more than 9% in 2017. despite united's pr nightmare today, the stock as phil mentioned closed higher by 1%.
5:33 pm
you own airlines. >> i do. >> do you own united? >> i do own united. >> do you care about this in terms of the stock price? >> right. as a stock owner, no, i don't really care. one of the things that happened that caused this is flights are full. if you're an airline, that's what you want. you want your flights to be full. you know, the revenue on that additional passenger, maybe not this particular one, this will end up being extremely costly for them. full fights, that's great for the airlines. i think there's a new-found sense of discipline that has been absent in this industry for decades. you can't create a worse pr video than this. for so many reason it's horrible. >> flights are full. that's the pr video right there. looking at it, this is a full flight. that's exactly the point. that's why the stock was probably up today. you look at it and say to yourself, it's disgusting in the way they handled it. from a cultural perspective, i
5:34 pm
couldn't imagine handling a situation like that. but full flight. actually, they're killing that unused capacity with bare bones sort of structures with the sort of the back end of the plane. they're filling these airlines. >> think about it, are you going oh change your flight? >> no. exactly. am i going to go with the lowest priced airfare which is what most people do when they choose a flight. they drag the guy down the aisle, i'm not going oh fly. >> there's a lot of places that you fly to that you can only fly on united. so i think that's why the stock didn't react at all. or reacted positively. >> by the way, when you check "i agree," i agree to be dragged? they have the right to bump you. even if they have a ticket. >> there's insurance where you're guaranteed not to get bumped. >> next time they offer you something, you take that offer immediately.
5:35 pm
don't wait for the next flight. because they're coming at you with the sticks. >> i tell you what, you said -- i would think twice before flying united. >> you fly out of newark. >> yeah, i know. >> but that is reprehensible. there's a million ways to handle it. that's the 1 millionth and 1 worst possible way. short of pushing him in the overhead compartment. >> or pushing him down the chute. that would probably be better than dragging him down the aisle. something that has a direct impact on the airlines, oil. crude crossed above $53 for the first time in three months. does the rally have more life? >> yes, i think it does have legs. but let's define legs. are we going to go to $70 a
5:36 pm
barrel? probably not. you have two things going on. once you get north of $50, you have to hedge, you have the producers coming in and hedging, saying, all right, we're going to sell out our production. on the other side, on the bottom side, you have saudi arabia who has their saudi arabia ipo coming out in 2018. so you kind of have a floor. so we're going to trade, in my view, we're going to trade in this range. let's call it $40 on the low side to $60 on the high side. there's plenty of money to be made in that range. so yes, it certainly does have legs. the second thing you have going on right now is seasonality. we're getting into the summer, driving season. there's more demand for the product. that will be a little bit of tailwind for oil here. >> consumer discretionary, i imagine on a year-over-year basis, energy prices are higher in general, gasoline 14-month highs. is this another headwind for some of these retailers? especially as we head into summer driving season and prices go even higher? >> i think you bring up a great
5:37 pm
point. i don't think the answer is yes. i think it makes sense it would be yes. but low gas prices, high gas prices, maybe you can maybe the argument it's high because the economy is better. if you want to be in stocks, i think mike devon might have showed a name going down the last three and a half months. apc, a sell-off. but seems to have held 60 bucks i think on that as well. >> still ahead, one hedge fund manager who is crushing the markets this year said one of the hottest trades of 2017, about to get even hotter. he will be here to tell us what it is and why he's so bullish. surprise, surprise, teens love snapchat. the number one choice among teens, but does its popularity justify its hefty valuations? we'll explain when "fast money" returns. returns.
5:38 pm
the power of 100 othe world's top companies. the power of a proven 15-year track record. the power of an etf. the power of qqq. the thinking we put , clients get out. power your client's portfoo at powershares.com/qqq. before invesng, consider the fund's investment objective risks, charges and expenses. ll 800-983-0903 for e prospectus containing this in with e*trade's powerful trading tools, right at your fingertips, you have access to in-pth analysis, level 2 data, and a team of experiend traders ready to help you if you need it. ♪ ♪ it's like having the power of a trading floor, wherever you are. it's your trade ♪ ♪ e*trade. ♪ ♪ start trading today at etrade.com
5:39 pm
i like russo. his on/off splits are the best here. yeah, but his offensive win shares didn't even break 4. come on, check out that stop-and-pop! what do you think? my trade-off analytics indicate no one creates more space on offense. this allows him to nail a jumper from a densely populated urban area. what you're trying to say is from way downtown? i am still learning. i can see that.
5:40 pm
. welcome back to "fast money." u.s. markets hovering near highs. things are looking just as good if not better across the pond. european stocks rallied more than 2% in the last month and are currently one of the year's hottest trades. for more let's go to a man who's always on fire, dom chu. hi, dom. >> i have moments, melissa, about you i'm not nearly as the markets these days. while the s&p 500 has been on a tear year-to-date, the broader stock 600 index in europe has kept pace with the 5% gain in the s&p. individually, there have been some outperformers as well.
5:41 pm
look at the ftse in italy, up 5% as well. the benchmark german dax index north of 6% just in 2017. that's kind of the same story happening with the portugal psi-20, and sticking with the whole iberian theme, and spain, a whopping 11%. if you look over the past 12 months, it gets impressive in some ways. the uk ftse 100 up over 18%. the s&p is up around 15% in the same time. over the course of the past few months, a slew of investors and money managers have come out in support of the notion that europe represents the better investment opportunity looking against the united states. now, that has been the trend over the last year or so. but the big question now is whether that trend can last. a lot of it's going to depend obviously on the political defendants, on both sides of the atlantic. but melissa, it may be a little too early to count the u.s. out just yet. back over to you guys. >> dom chu, thank you. you might be surprised by the european stock rally, but pieter
5:42 pm
taselaar called the surge back in june. here's what he said. >> i would aggressively buy the periphery, all the domestic plays. >> european stocks up about 12% since then. pieter said the run is close to done. we brought him pack to tell us why you can still bet on it. pieter, thank you for being with us. >> thank you very much, melissa. >> it's interesting what happened between then and now in the stock. it's perceived that the political risk is actually increased over that amount of time. yet you're still as bullish in europe and specifically the periphery? >> yeah, actually more so. >> more so? >> because i think people, we've seen about 40 weeks of outflows out of europe. because people extrapolated what happened here in the u.s. with the trump victory, and then brexit, extrapolating it to the rest of europe and saying, okay,
5:43 pm
well, the netherlands, france, italy, will lead to the eu. nobody has looked at europe as an investable region. the reality on the ground actually is quite the opposite. so i think, you know, we have sort of our finger at the pulse, talking to a lot of companies. i think this quarter may be the first quarter in ten years where we see gdp growth in europe exceeding that in the u.s. so i think we are actually at the beginning of a multi-year run in europe. >> big election coming up in france. does that matter what the outcome is? we saw brexit in the uk back after a short while. >> yes. it matters very much. there's a big fear that the extreme right wing candidate will win. if that happens, that would not be good. but we assess that probability extremely well. she's run in regional elections,
5:44 pm
and it's a two-chair system, two rounds. she always falls about 25% and 35% in the first round. and then in the second round, the middle of the road. >> isn't the extrapolation of what happened with donald trump and what happened with brexit, that the unlikely can happen, and so therefore, lapenn, probably won't happen, could actually happen and that's the real risk in the story? >> well, yes. the unlikely might happen. if you look at trump, we look at brexit, you were still within a 5% margin of error. for lepenn to win, the polls have to be off by about 15%. so 10 million, 15 million french voters have to sway the other way. the probability is slow in our opinion. >> we get through the french election. what about the european bank? i was short earlier in the year. no longer am. they've been on an absolute tear. what's your take on it? >> there's a difference between the european investment banks, i think that's a problem, you look
5:45 pm
at deutsche bank and credit suisse and ubs, right now we're running at 2.5%, 3% gdp growth. the banks that have recapitalized, you're definitely long those. again, i would, like i said in about six months ago, i would focus on the periphery. that's where you find banks that are trading at four and five times book. they have gotten rid of their mpls. >> italy, spain, france. >> yeah. first italy, second san francisco, and then spain, definitely. within europe, also, removing from core europe, i.e., germany, to the periphery. it's a bit riskier, but you get paid to take that risk. >> pieter, check back with us. pieter taselaar. >> thank you very much. >> how do you like the
5:46 pm
risk/reward? >> i like that, i totally agree with that. the only thing i worry about is what happens when there's news out about tax cuts, or tax plan that gets put into place. what then happens to the u.s. trade. the u.s. trade -- >> you mean, in terms of flows, so the u.s. -- >> yeah, in general. you will see if there's an announcement at some point in time, what will happen in the trump agenda. if they can come to some sort of agreement on the tax cuts. the u.s. market -- we're talking an additional $10 in earnings in the s&p 500 if that comes together. the market, the money will continue to flow to the u.s. aggressively under that scenario for a period of time. i think you'll see weakening, you know, abroad. that will give you a binding opportunity. >> german dax traded up to about 12,400. that's what i would watch if you want to -- if this whole trade continues to work. if the dax can get through 12.5, and 14 when pieter was here is
5:47 pm
now back at 16 1/2. there's something going on with deutsche bank, i believe. to me, the tell is, dax needs to get through 12.5 and deutsche needs to stabilize. >> i think you probably want to stay away from them on the long side. i actually don't mind this trade. to dave's point, if you do get the sell-off based on the fact that the u.s. is going to accelerate, it's going to spread out to the rest of the world. i would say your risk in europe is not as great as most people think. >> all right. still ahead, snap shares climbing as one study called it the most popular social media app among teens, now the perfect time to snap up the stock? he'll explain. one trader is betting nearly $2 million that this stock could continue to rally. we'll give you the name. you alwy
5:48 pm
ur iurce on time. and up go your rates. what good is having insurance if you get punished for using it? news flash: nobody's pfect. for drivers th accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $509 on auto insuranc call for a free quote today. liberty stands with u™ rty mutual insuran. hey, how's it going? um. who are you? i'm val. the orange money retiment squrel fr voya. i represent the money you save for the future. see?
5:49 pm
5:50 pm
when but we've got the getzed? for rtdigital tools to help. vo now with xfinity's my account, you can figure things out easily, so you won't even have to call us. change your wifi password to something you can actually remember, instantly. add that premium channel, and watch the show everyone's talking about, tonight. and the bill you need to pay? do it in seconds. because we should fit into your life, not the other way around. go to xfinity.com/myaccount welcome back to "fast money." piper jaffray releasing the annual survey on what teens think is lit, what kids these kids use to say something is cool. among the most lit is snapchat reigning as the top social media platform for teens. >> you could totally pass for a
5:51 pm
teenager, melissa. it's not surprising snapchat continues to reign supreme. topping instagram with 79%, twitter third, facebook coming in fourth. senate chat's popularity is not necessarily at facebook's expense. it held steady as snapchat has grown over the past surveys. facebook owned instagram, remains strong, too. kim said the stronger adoption among the youngest teens suggests longer term staying power. what's more important is brands and retailers hoping to sell to teens, should focus on instagram. 54% of them say it's the best method for communicating new products and promotions, far outranking shapchat, twitter, facebook and edging out e-mail.
5:52 pm
when asked about the favorite place to shop? online only retailers hit a peak at 17%. those pure play ecommerce options grew by the same rate that specialty shops sell when you look year-over-year. amazon and nike have held the number one and two spots as favorite websites for at least the last four surveys. nike may be donating share to amazon, because amazon cements its top position with 43% market share compared to 40% in the fall. nike sits at number two with a distant 5%, down from 8% in the fall. melissa, back over to you. >> thank you very much, courtney redpan with that. there's two sides of the story. the snapchat side. the instagram part of it must please you. >> the differential was 81 versus 79%. that's nothing compared to the market cap that's embedded in snapchat versus what i think is absent in the instagram --
5:53 pm
>> wow! >> its you think about snapchat, what do they call them, tweens, teens, it's the only way you can -- that's the only way the media, or advertisers can access those people. they don't watch tv. where are you going to advertise in that segment of the population? snapchat can only win if they can maintain that user base as they age, and they could bolt on premium sort of like, let's say parts so they can attract a new user base. >> that's it. >> i love facebook. i do. >> i think snapchat is a similar, let's call it story as tesla, where you have to have a little bit of imagination. tesla at the be dpij of the show, i said there was a meg a trend of the electric grid. snapchat is the only way to play augmented reality. you have to have the
5:54 pm
imagination, that their ceo is going to be able to play this. this is another mega trend coming along, senate chat is the way to do it. owning it here is not bad. >> i would think that you need a whole lot more imagination for snapchat. we don't really know -- >> agreed. >> we know that tesla produces two cars, most likely three cars -- >> tesla was back when it was $17 -- >> and outsource snapchat. forget about the user pace. facebook's got the cash flow. they've got the want, the will. they can outresource shapchat. >> court in i must have been using her imagination to think you still look like a teen. >> she was being very kind. shifting gears, home depot on a tear this year. one trader is betting there's more room to run. hey, mike. >> home depot joining the ranks
5:55 pm
of the financials today as one of the top 20 stocks. we saw the activity with buyers of the may 155 call. someone paid 61 cents for 25,000 of those making a bullish bet that home depot will be up 39 days away. importantly, earnings come only one month from now on may 10th. that's probably what they're betting on. >> thanks for that, mike. by the way, programming note for all you options action fans out there, the whole team will be off friday for good friday. meet us pack here next friday for more "options action." up next, bank stocks, one name that's about to bounce back. we'll tell you what it is when we come right back. we come righ. hey gary, what'd you got here? we come righ. this bad boy is a mobile trading desk
5:56 pm
so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade time's up, insufficient we're on prenatal care.es. and administrative paperwork... your days of drowning people are numbered. same goes for you, budget overruns. and rising costs, wipe that smile off your face. we're coming for you, too. for those who won't rest until the world is healthier, neither will we. optum. how well gets done. the power of 100 of the world's top companies.
5:57 pm
the power of a proven 15-year track record. the power of an etf. the power of qqq. the thinking we put in, clients get out. power your client's portfolio at powershares.com/qqq. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. call 800-983-0903 for the prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. distributed by invesco distributors inc.
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
value here. i like whole foods. >> david? >> netflix. buy it ahead of the quarter. i think the stock goes higher. >> in the previous block i made a remark about -- let me say for the folks at home. melissa in person is far more beautiful in person than she is on air. just a joke. i handled it better than they did. devon energy might be breaking out to the upside. >> i'm melissa lee. thank you for watching. see you tomorrow at 5:00. meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market
6:00 pm
138 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on