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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  May 9, 2017 9:00am-11:01am EDT

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that would be incredible too. >> we wish you love. >> great to see you. come back. weep go to apple and -- >> and -- melissa, thank you. >> my pleasure. make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" starts right now. >> you could dunk? ♪ this is how we do it ♪ this is how we do it good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." eye karl quintanilla. pretty steady premarket opening. for, the dow has moved less than two tenths of a point. we get three more fed speakers today. we begin with president ale's record run, the company worth more than $800 billion.
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will the rising tide help other stocked. the overhaul now reportedly to be done in stage. and a new echo device likely to be unveiled thor. first up, markets are aiming for new milestones. the nasdaq mitt record highs. as well, briefly surpassing $800 billion in market cap. then there's the vix. some people say it takes you back to '93. jim, our number indicate 2006, but it doesn't fall below ten very often. >> remember there's a correlation that's actually not that negative. you should have this in a bull market. warren buffett says just keep
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contributing to your 401(k). i'm not saying that's complacent. i'm saying that's the way people save, and you may say, well, they shouldn't save like that and they have forgotten how much you can lose, but warren buffett would say how much did you lose? you didn't lose anything even during the great recession. i think there's a level november the complacency, but a recognition this is how you invest, because we don't have any other plate to invest. his comments about the treasuries, about bonds? they were basic lil saying you're an idiot if you do anything than put it in an index fund. warren buffett was on his game -- every year he's great, but i think people were listening to that. >> we had jack on the show, talking about what what a 25% roughly of the float of every stock. the index at an etf, passively managed, and you get to a pretty
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big number. we all know actively managed fun funds. >> they keep saying our time is coming. >> count you worry about analog -- and other things that got us in trouble in the past? >> i think it's entirely possible. i also know at this moment, none of the hedge funds really like the market. it's like a piece of real estate, or they are betting against certain stocks the. there seems to be this cohort of big money that has one foot out the door, then there's this other that says, look, what am i going to do with my money? i can't put it in treasuries.
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so that may be the response. you never want to say the vix is wrong, but what you do want to say is there's a different kind of visiting going on now versus what we've had for the last 30 years, which is, put it in an index fund. warren buffett has said put it in an index fund a long time. it's really resonated. right, it's vanguard and then you get blackrock. it's more or less, yeah, that's your shareholder base. we talk about that sometimes in this vets activist environment, because they also become the very important shareholders when it comes to decisions on a board of directors and/or a proxy fight, but they also offer very slim fees, which is another part of it as well. you're not paying a lot for that, either, so you're making
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more moan on the return. >> i've given up the idea you should try to time it. peter lynch told you there's always going to be declines and you just have to keep the great money manager from -- i'm not saying there's a level of complacency, but a recognition what the heck else are we supposed to do? we can keep it in cash, or keep it in the checking account, or we can do and go some of it in the index fund. it's going to go up and down. it's almost like people really understand stocks? but maybe they do, because when you have 401(k) buyers and i.r.a. buyers, they put it in index funds and say, okay, i'll contribute. the way my father used to. people are wondering what they're doing instead. >> i think the big hedge funds
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are managing risk by betting jeffrey gunlock, you bet against the u.s. >> short the s&p one-time leverage. or these triple december bob pisani was talking about the four-time leverage. they are blessed by the s.e.c. just to ruin you, because people don't understand how they work. they reset every day. another way to lose money, unless you just go and you do what buffett says and you go what vogue vogel says. i told people to get out at 11,000, and i just followed mark haines to the haines bottom, and they said, so what? it made me pay taxes, there's people in the white house who said i heard some guy -- i don't want to get to -- but getting out and getting in. it show longest even has any cachet. each being right is wrong. watson, come here, i need you,
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no, it's thomas watson. >> just stay innant don't do anything. >> if you're approaching it as something that's the bedrock way you invest, you're not going to be fearful. you're going to say, well, this is what happens, i'm going to lose money now, make money later. this is a different kind. the hedge funds, they hate it. they just hate it. did you ever seen a hedge fund guy come out and say i'm really long, here's five great ideas. it's like, i want to be in and short that and again that. >> but he's not a hedge fund guy. >> and buy coals. i want to buy the u.s., but i want to short the u.s. is another form. they guys are like -- they just twist and they're houdini, david blaine. they're burying themselves for 17 minutes hoping to come up for air, shooting themselves in the mouth and know you have the king of hearts. you don't need to be david
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blaine to invest. >> you were one of them once. >> well, that was a different kind of market. people used to go in and out. not anymore. hell, you needed blaine back then. >> something we have to state vigilant on. >> we don't want to ever feel so confident, we want to be skeptical, but not cynical. i keep thinking about apple. at 193, these guys just buried it. remember when carl icahn, the great carl icahn, he sudden you have to get tough it because of china. that was a huge call. he missed a lot of up side. not to take away from a very strong track record from mr. icahn over a loren period of time, but the last three years have been difficult for him. he's gotry of a lot of people on his staff, trying to mix things
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up. that was an ill-advised stock. as was getting out of the netflix. you can never say when you've made money it was a bad sale. he made money on both of those, unlike some other names. >> remember the hedge funds were betting against f.a.n.g.? facebook does the number, and then doesn't quick. >> amazon was supposed to be overvalued. and then alphabet, that was supposed to be ruined that you're advertise you're advertising against very bad -- >> that is why they account for such a large percentage of at least the nas 100. results ahead of disney after the bell. discovery is already out reported a quarterly miss.
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pandora, a narrower than expected loss, but also announcing that kkr has agreed to invest $150 million in the service while it explores strategic alternatives, including a sale. kkr now a money in pandora, money in lyft? >> listen, it's private invest to public equity, $115 million, convertibility that gets 7.5% in cash. the thing is pandora needed the money. we skid wester about it. they did. they needed it. they got is it. i don't know why the market sees it as more likely -- guys, it's less likely. >> you're ruining the narrative.
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>> so. >> were they eries investigate rating. >> i don't know why that's a positive. >> this is -- >> a lot of $70 million ebitda. i don't quite follow this one. i take to mcfay about it last week at, and he said bike it at ten bubbles maybe. he didn't quite say that, but that's what it was like -- and alexis, wow, she's better than the dog, better than the -- well, let's leave it at that. >> we have them cutting the price from 150 to 180. we do expect another version to be announced today. according to this we're talking about -- >> the echo. >> echo scratches my back.
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>> we're at the very, very beginning of it. you can ask it business questions, foreign policy request hes. >> we'll so what the announcement -- >> you know -- that would be more you than me. >> i'm going to the rangers game. what time do i have to be there? i'm going. >> going tonight? >> didn't you learned? >> no. did you have my ticket there, too? >> we'll ask alexa. we'll go and so he if you can get the bleacher. >> nothing wrong with the bleachers. >> okay. matt harvey. we'll be watching for the new john cully will join us.
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the company once ran at report highs. the s&p got a record close yesterday, but but moving up 0.1 of a point. back in a minute. ck in a minute. ray's always been different. ck in a minute. last year, he said he was going to dig a hole to china. at&t is working with farmers to improve irrigation techniques. remote moisture sensors use a reliable network to tell them when and where to water. so that farmers like ray can compete in big ways. china. oh ... he got there. that's the power of and.
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view of dodd/frank reportedly will not be due until june. they will give priorities to banking regulation. we'll see how it affects the space today. >> look, maybe it's reflecting the fact that france -- there's not a lot of money -- to keep money in europe for a while. we've had all these great quarters, we did have a good employment number. reality is a bit better. i think things were before the french election. the french election was bringing money here like mad. >> you do?
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does that bring this recovery to a screeching halt for exporters in europe? >> that's interesting. that's a good question. i don't know. i think there's still a lot of room, but i think they're going to have a hard time keeping that euro down. this commerce bank number this morning, just a terrific bank null better. really fabulous 12 1/2 equity, nice profit, second largest banbank in germany. this is like when bank of america turns around. very amazing. we're going to start talking about italy the next? no, italy is not the next. frank was the big domino, and it didn't fall. i think that's a much more significant story than we're actually talking about. this may be -- i know the vix is also reflecting that we don't have another big domino in europe. there could be a lot of dominos in asia, but the fact we have
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chinese leverage, north korea. but we kind of took europe off the table for a while. the numbers are too good. look at marriott's numbers. marriott's figures, even united and their revenue guidance, the unit revenue guide for the q2 is -- >> priceline every day. these are just united and expedia on last week. europe is very, very strong. i just think that's going to be one of the big things we talk about this year, because the industrials have just a real run of the -- it's been great. >> travel is doing so well, yet hertz can't get around what's happening to car prices, right? >> hertz is just -- sheesh, pricing down 3%, revenues down 4%, negative ebitda. >> we talked earlier about hedge funds and their inable to beat
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the s&p. this was such a favorite name three years ago. >> they all had go gotten sup an on the gopik pricing. >> nots has helped. >> and they kept denying that uber was hurting their business. >> no, not at all. >> people aren't going to the airport and orton an uberer though all still -- what? >> it's crushing their business. the die nile continues toss the river that runs through hertz. the release is like, many, i've got to get into hertz. no, no, don't. it's bad. >> no, just -- it's not like it had a good year last year or the year prior to that. >> where were they are on the
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other side of that? >> they are fearful. all that risk adjustment. we should have a placesancy hedge fund index. they're so short. what do you think of that? >> you work on that. >> i'll work on it. we'll have cramer's mad dash. more "squawk on the street" in a moment. moment.
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sort of failed hedge fund investments, which leads us to today's mad dash, actually good news for valuant? >> this is a bill ackman name. >> was. >> i should switch the transitional verbal there. i'm just going to tell you, a good quarter. nice cash flow. they want bausch & lomb is fine, so there's no real time frame in the near term that they're in trouble. >> they don't have a near-term deal, something to deal with in terms of a maturity that they can't meet. if you're short the stock, it may not work out for you, and this was a favorite hedge fund short. i think they should have covered.
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belong term, when they start having to pay, maybe there's an issue, but they did a good job. is there a full to speak of? is it more that you keep locking and tackling. 50% move -- >> i would say what you have to do is say, listen, they actually did good stuff with bausch & lomb. if it didn't have all this, let's say you cut debt by $10 million, you would say it's a hampered drug company, but not desperate. value valeant is not if desperate not. and having a good day today. we'll be watching more that he
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valeant this morning. we'll have the opening bell. stay with us. stay with us.
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on the street", live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell at 2 1/2 machines. marriott, hertz, valeant, we have disney tonight, jim, as people take stock of the reports we got last week about ford cutting and what looks like an acceleration of that? >> i think one of the things that's happened is when everyone knows there's a problem, everyone knows there's a problem, it tends to not be the thing we should worry about. i think if you go back to what he is last quarter, but please at a time attention, it's got a decent story to tell. i'm -- they bang it down or in the after hours, tried to make people panic. i would like to hear how much they're saving by firing all these people, people we watched for years. >> but don't you think you'll end up with a call with a lot of
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the same questioning about cord cutting, skinny bundles, given, by the way, media has been taken it on the chin for the last week and a half or so. >> well, i think the stock did drop precipitously, but could it go back to 109? 108? i think we forget how good iger is at telling a story. if we come in and he says, we're going to lose this many and we're prepared, that's why we made the cuts, people will be able to say, geez, i don't know what to ask them, them the call may go towards movies. >> they have a lot of product down the pike. cable is expected to dip back to zero, though. >> maybe that's why the stock isn't at 140? right?
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>> i didn't like the first one -- >> i'm still laughing about the first one, it was so good. >> the opening bell here at the bottom of your screen. at the big board today. it's biohaven pharmaceutical celebrating -- mother's day is sunday. >> mother's day, thank heavens -- may be a candle that me and my mother had a picture of us. since the wife doesn't watch the show, i can give it to her as mother's day. fantastic. >> i spent a lot of time on it, you know, wrap it up. >> maybe a coach/kate spade. >> you see they're not going to send them to the outlet stores? what will that mean for the ones you get in the bowery? >> i don't think they'll be
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affected. >> they're made in china, right? >> actually they may be made somewhere else. china may be too expensive now. yeah. we have early strength in the travel-related names. marriott is the biggest. some airlines on this as well, wynn, priceline all in the green. >> we're talking about robust travel out of the europe, and it's not so bad in the united states, but i think a lot of people who felt -- had made it so that, what president trump was doing would cut back on travel. it's not been that way. it's been pretty strong. i think people have to recognize there's still a shortage of hotel rooms, which is kind of amazing. do you how many marriott has in the pipeline in 430,000 rooms. middle-class story still has some resonance. the europeans are coming here, traveling like mad. i felt like the airlines got -- if you go back and look at
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there's a guy being pulled out of a plane? it was a buying opportunity. stock's up six. >> the video of spirit at ft. lauderdale, where they canceled a bunch of flights and people got arrested. they fights broke out with airline staff. >> spirit? wow. i read that in twitter. something. how about the rabbit out of a hat david blaine story -- >> the giant rabbit? >> the giant dead rabbit. pulled out of the hat? >> discoveries communication, they have nothing to do with rabbits. >> good segue there. >> no, there wasn't one. >> a snowshoe, wasn't the rabbit that beat the cougar or -- we've seen it a million times, and a great white shark?
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jersey. >> there are guys that shoot rabbits? >> i think i know what you mean. >> will you just focus? >> i'm trying to focus on discovery, down 4.37%. >> is it really? >> they got a mixed back here. the call is good on. we've been monitoring it, but nothing substantive, at least that i'm aware of, in terms of comments from the man who runs the company, or skinnedy bund bundles, advertising, though there might have been something overall, it look like adjusted e.p.s., it does include a six-cent loss of extinguishment of debt, would be -- so would have been 47, still perhaps a bill below some estimates. overall the ebitda was above some estimates. so again, kind of a mixed bag. isi, po continued top improving,
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but not helping the stock price, as you see. and also. >> a lot of this, we're kind of too old to get into the crutch, and i her talking to -- jim who is in more touch, the iphone, the apple, the plus, the 7 plus is the cord cutter. >> zazlov said there is no skinny bud are bundle. the idea of a $40 offering with regional sports and incomplete package is what that would be so you have to buy broadband on top of it, it ends of being $70,
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it's not really a skinny bunding, but just a bundle. it ended up -- >> also some overstuffed turkeys, skinny bundles. >> discovery is not in a lot of them. that's the problem. >> you know, espn in a skinny bundle is not really well represented in the bundle that i have. >> what does it cost a month seven, eight? at least. >> i thought it was five. what do i know? the capable bill -- that bill is not going higher. that's one of the things we have to focus on. there's a price war. >> there's a price war. >> where? >> in your capable -- in your cell phone bill, the unlimited? >> yeah, there's a price war there. >> i wish my cell phone -- it's slowed down so appreciably since this unlimited war. they need more towers, which is why american tower and sba and
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crown casss castle are unbelieve stocks. jim, s&p record at almost 2402. some people wonder if we've -- we've got innocent range since march 1 he. >> i think a lot of people felt the high water mark was the inauguration. repeal and replace drove the market down and once that got out of the house people were more sanguine. i think it was such a flop the first time around, it does embolden people. it does. i think people feel pretty good. i think warren buffett, you always get the halo from warren buffett. that was like the greatest, most immersive -- >> yeah, she really did. >> to your point, sentiment, mfib, pretty steady, plans to
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hire, steady at 16. not quite the highs that we had earlier in the year. it hasn't budged as policy wavered. >> that's also reflected in hertz, the used car market. and then retail we're going to hear later this week. i'm going with matthew on this, february was the trough. i also think the kate spade/coach was good. >> you liked that deal? >> i was reading it last night, basically they go with some estimates that a quarter of retail space will eventually need to be repurposed. a quarter. at last year's pace that would take 30 years. >> that was a bearish piece. it says there's so much capacity taken out, so much capacity left. they're there are really just way too many, and wayfair, that ended in a pretty good place to
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sell, because the home store it was good, and wayfair is a bit of a short squeeze, but wow. >> how about targets testing next-day delivery in minneapolis. next-day delivery and offer certain categories. >> in the meantime costco gave you the special dividends coming right back up, because costco is such a bargain. >> have you it seen pentair? that's my new thing, no -- >> speaking of tesla. >> how about rabbits? >> no pep pentair willsh trien is the large holder here. they're now going to be a water company, and they're also going to be a high-performance
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electrical company, focused on improving utilization, lowering scotss. >> i think it's -- i say that, because there's a shortage of water stocks, and water stocks people tend to buy are -- the companies that buy municipal waters. so we finally verb perk and el merits has a water business, it's not -- this idea of a pure water play is what we want. >> right. by the way, they are going to do in through spinning off the electrical business to shareholders and you can see it's got the stock up almost 4% this morning, and again you did have the presence of an activist there for some time. >> amazon is now live with the new echo. the echo show now alexa can show you things, watch video flash briefings, watch youtube, see music lyrics, security cameras,
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foxos, weather forecasts u. talk to family and friends who have a similar exo. >> how hard is it to set it up? >> it's easy. >> plug and play. >> now, every tie we mention alexa, do you know people watching our show who have an alexa near are getting -- so alexa, order me a domino's pizza with banana peppers, no cheese. everyone will get one now. >> amazon has a piece of sound. let's take a listen to that. >> announcer: with amazon exo and alexa, you can control smarthome devices and get news and information. now the newest members, echo show. >> hi there. >> this is doug. first-time dad. with echo show, he can stay connected even when his hands are full. >> mom would like to talk. >> alexa, september the call.
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hay, mom. >> hi, honey, how are things? >> you forgot to mention how hard this whole parenting thing is. >> jim, you just literally threw your hands up. >> it's fabulous. this is amazing. i'm shelving the other one. >> i'm waiting until they perfect it all. >> are you kidding me? i'm a simulation, because it's perfect. this is in. >> what is going on in the house with the whole thing and they're painting and. >> sin abon there. >> holy cow. that's more of a video. the product itself again -- i mean, amazon just keeps outdoing itself. implts like what do they have next? how about something better than you have. >> stocked at a record high this morning before settling back
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down. >> every i wish i have wanted has come true. >> our only issue is if you say the election, she thinking we're referring to you. >> she doesn't mind my philadelphia accent. she totally gets it. i like that, too. >> now she'll be able to watch you instead of listening to you. >> what do you have to show? sheesh, watch me do work. >> is it too expensive? >> not at all. >> he's ridiculously smart, isn't he? don't you ever feel jealous of him? , no, that's unbecoming. >> i admire him. >> that's it. >> his focus. >> unrelending am bibs to dominate the world.
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>> dow is up five points again. let's get to bob pisani. >> happy tuesday, everyone. small gains. we're breaking out. let's look at the tectors. we are being led on this breakout once again by technology. industrials his a historic high yesterday. tech hit the highest level since going back to 200 on. we're close to the 0old 2000 levels. the if you look it he s&p, the important thing is we are over 2400, so we are in new highs, but it's big cap pushing us up. particularly tech and a bit of the industrials. if you look at the small caps and mid caps, they're doing all right, but we're not breaking out to historic highs. the s&p small cap, for example, is below historic highs. we're not quite there in the small cap and mid cap.
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meantime, the important thing about the overall market, you can argumenti future real. the indices are at new highs, break joined are kind of modest. we need that. volume is light. volatility, we talked about the high complacency in the vix. the vix is sitting there as a ten-year low. people have complained about that. i don't, but very simple reasons why the vix is low right now. besides etfs, we've seen advances in trading technology. pricing is more efficient. we've seen the federal reserve by a major factor, risk is just lower right now. it's lower across the board. look at the five maim global risk factors. he opolitics has lower risk.
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the u.s. economy has been improving. the fed is essentially on the floor pictures. risk is much lower than it was even a come the months ago. that's why the vix is down. the stock markets? well, we'll get what's going on. this is what you get. the get the u.s. markets. germany at historic highs, france at multi-year cries and japan -- david, emerging markets at 15. 18-month highs. so the bottom line is, yes, the vix is low and there are perfectly good reasons why that is so. david, back to you. >> thank you, bob. we want to go back to a stair from yesterday that's resonating in the world. our parent company comcast and the other very large capable company charter announcing a partnership to pursue wireless operations together. a lot of people saying, okay, we get it, at least what it appears
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to be about, you know, you'll be able to maybe purchase handset more cheaply. you don't seem to be merging your brands, but maybe a national foot regional players now makes sense from a network basis. even if you real the legal language from let's say a verizon making a bid for charter, comcast would have the ability to say no, you can't do that for one year. why would charter want to do that? give that lockup, for lack of a better term, to comcast? well, in trying to understand that over the last day and speaking to a number of people. they sake to be happy to take out of the takeover speculation, and push it to the side and essentially say, there's no
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verizon deal. lowell mcadam has spoken about the fact the architecture might not have been right. also indicating -- but they seemingly eliminated that speculation and it's come out of the stock a bit. take a look at charter yesterday, today, not down that much, but a bit. and also this idea they would get together to bid for a t mobile. it really does seem to be about trying to actually align themselves in a significant way to pursue this strategy of wireless and kind of freeze things while everybody else is doing their own think and trying to figure it out. if you are a tom rutledge and you thought you had a deal to acquire time warner and sell some of the divested assets and
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comcast said, no, we're coming in -- i'm going back a ways here, you may want to have some sort of something built in here that says, okay there won't be any double-crossing going on. so i'm one thof cases where what it appeared to be may very well be what it is, people looking for a deeper meaning, may not find one. this would seem to hinder it rather than help it. at least for now. t mobile and sprint, that's its own animal. >> that's good. that's some clarity, because frankly i didn't really understand the need. so there you go. >> less speculation. >> maybe not. >> if you're a shareholder that's good. i hate these stock that is go up and down. every other day there's a -- >> sometimes it is a good idea to get the spec out of your
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price. good morning. bob pisani said some things that are really important that we need to pay attention to. vick being low, but hey, don't worry, better technology, more official markets, gee, where have i heard this before? let me think, in the '80s portfolio insurance. before the os, i.t., technology, capable under the ocean, that's the ticket. in the '04, '05, '06, derivatives, that is the answer, but all of those had some asterisks. if you look at one week of tens, they're marching as well. these are the highest quleelds since the end of march, but it isn't just us. remember, we're linked. one week of bunds, they're -- these are the highest yield closes in the bund since the 21st of march, right around that
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same area. not surprising. the if about a month, what the interesting thing is, is while all these are marching higher together, the spread hasn't changed, well, no surprise there, but that is key that it's going nowhere. we move the same. we're correlated. if things go good or bad or we start to jump the presume about 50 basis points, it's good it is to be more aggressive. finally the dollar index, timely getting traction. next top, test 100. david, jim, carl, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. still to come, an exclusive with goldman's cohead of investment banks, john waldron. the. the s&p is up almost two, 2401. 01.
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reason to have an all-time high on the nas, as well as amazon. we'll get to stock trading with jim, in a moment. m, in a moment. ray's always been different. m, in a moment. last year, he said he was going to dig a hole to china. at&t is working with farmers to improve irrigation techniques. remote moisture sensors use a reliable network to tell them when and where to water. so that farmers like ray can compete in big ways.
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you know, they do fabulous
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work -- has a piece today, saying really skeptical about it. this is again what happens at a hedge fund. so even when you do really quality work, there's someone else on the other side of one of these stocks, and you end up getting run over. this quality work makes you think ring the register, no, don't stop. >> what's on "mad money" tonight. >> branent saunders, and brad jacobs, a trucking company, last mile, last mile is important in a world where we have lots of e-commerce. lie wayfair. >> got that ride. see you tonight, jim. when we come back, john scull sculley. apple is up 12. apple is up 12.
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can we push the offer online? brian, i just had a quick question. brian? brian... legacy technology can handcuff any company. but "yes" is here. you're saying the new app will go live monday?! yeah. with help from hpe, we can finally work the way we want to. with the right mix of hybrid it, everything computes.
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♪ and you feel so good ♪ oh, yeah welcome back. we're at the new york stock
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exchange, the dow managing a 23-point gain to start the morning. obviously the tight range is the talk of all the markets. it's got some things going on. fed-speak and disney earnings. we have quiet trading, but the s&p 500 and nasdaq are quietly both hitting fresh record highs. we'll break down where you should by putting your money. $800 billion in the market cap, holding on to its title as the world's most valuable company. we'll talk with the former ceo, straight ahead. and done in stages. we have the latest. but first, let's get to rick santelli with those numbers. rick? >> thank you, sara. at least on the job openings sigh we're expecting a number right over 5.7 million.
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so it definitely improved. to the large final read on wholesale inventories, up 0.2, tied with the best number in the year. you have to go back to december to get a higher number. he's one i didn't like much, though. on the sales side, goode egg, unchanged. that is the weakest number going back to the july '16. we've had a lot of positive reads on sales, so you want to watch that ratio, market responses minimal, but the dollar in rates continue to move higher as the nasdaq 100 continues to outperform the s&p over the last 12 months, as well as in 2017, thanks in part to strong earnings from the light of tech giants, apple, alphabet and facebook. joining us is david kostin.
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good to have you back. >> thank you. in your note -- thee. >> the number one question, basically the tech giants are leading the way, and our forecast is nasdaq 100 will continue to outperform the s&p 500, but only by a modest amount. as we look out the next year. in part the relative valuation is in line with where it's been historically, and better earnings, so certainly a more attractive place to be, but the up side is pretty modest, maybe 3%, and the way i think about this is in the last 12 months, nasdaq is up 30%, market's up almost 20%, but the key driver is almost half that gain has driven by the big stocks. >> so you think the moderation and outperformance is because the relative valuation is in and out in line with historical norms? >> so our starting point between
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nasdaq and the s&p 500 is more consistent with the historical pattern, number one. number two, if you look forward, you get better at sales and earnings growth. it's still modest, liking for about 300 basis points, a positive 2% return for the nasdaq. maybe 1 hundred slightly down from thinks levels. our target had been and remains, a peak in the market in the early part of the year and would fade more two-on-onefor that -- >> you look at the 25 larger stocks and goled mass han buys on all but the top ten. >> the two areas we'll be focusing is on is technology and financials, in a secular growth with an economy that's growing. you have higher inflation broughtly and higher interest rates the the technology tector would be less affected, if you
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will, about by some of those trend, but the key drivers of microsoft, apple, google, facebook, amazon are better revenue growth. if you look at the first quarter results. we've got excellent results. very, very few disappointments. >> so stick with tech. one of the biggest debates du jour is the no fear/fear index of the vix. where do you come down on whether that is a worrisome signal, so much complacency out there. >> i would be more concerned than not that the fact that vix has been so low such a long time. it raises angst about what is lurking on the there that we have not anticipated. we question whether that's sustainable and negative earnings revision. our labor costs and higher health care costs. >> but earnings revisions were going up? >> no, the last three months,
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slightly slower. in some sectors they have obviously gone -- but not dramatically. the biggest concerns is margins are at record-high levels, sort of plateaus here for the better part of five years. the broadened issue is the market trades at the 99 percent aisle, very, very expensive. one positive, if you will, driver is that companies have rotated and are no longer emphasizing buybacks as a key use of cash. >> because the stock's gotten too price,? >> the piano he management should be reflected -- and so there's more of a focus on the -- for de-emphasizing that, investors have been -- as opposed to those in terms of the performance, those that are actually directing more of that are cash in buybacks. >> is it your expectation that
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even as a result of this market calm, businesses get more interested in cap ex over buybacks? >> would be focused more on cap ex than buybacks. >> the number one use of cash remains capital spending. but on the margin, the question of buying back stock at such a high valuation is questionable. is that the best strategy for most companies? in most capacities probably not. some clarification on tax reform would also be helpful in terms of deciding to repatriate cash overseas or alternative whether there's special deductions for investments, tax credits up front. >> a number of companies may be faced if we get a repatriation deal, which many people think is the most likely outcome of any tax cuts or reforming.
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do we buy back stock in do we pay dividend? do we do capital investment in a more significant way? >> it's more likely to have an impact as opposed to this year? and as a result, decisions on when to rebapatriate money probably gets delayed. that is important, because a large percentage of cash overseas ha as a probable that some of that is directed towards repurchasing shares. share repurchasing are important, because they've been the number one source of demand for shares in the last several years. that's sort of ebbing if you will on the margin. >> one last thing, you referenced wage growth a couple times. some argue that wage growth is actually topping out. is there an expectation it rebounds again? >> the goldman seeks economics team has a tracker, called the wage tracker, which amal goo mates a number of different
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metrics. it's showing now 3%. it's the highest it's been this cycle. wages cost are an important driver of the cost structure for some companies, less so for others. opportunities for some, concerns for others, but broadly speaking, the markets trade at extremely high levels. >> david, thank you so much. when we come back, big changes in the banks and financial regulatory regime may be put on hold. rob nichols is with us, just after meeting with the president. apple's record run, we'll be speaking with the former ceo of apple john sculley straight ahead. "squawk on the street" will be right back. right back.
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royer is reporting that the review is -- for a breakdown of the administration's road map on regulatory cuts, changes for voelker and dodd/frank, we are joined by rob nichols. nice to see you here at post 9. >> thank you. >> does this jibe with your involvement on some of the regulatory changes? >> thanks for having me, sara. we've been working on the executive order for weeks. if there's a slight delay,
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that's not really a problem. what important is that it gets done. if it takes a big longer that'sing on. there's a legislative track, you know, a conversation up on capitol hill about possible changes to dodd will have frank, not wholesale rollbacks, of course and then, secretary mnuchin and his team. i think from my own lens, my own vantage points, if it comes in stages, we're not overly concerned about it. >> the question i know you're -- is how much can the president do? and the treasury do without approval from congress? what type of rollbacks are we looking at? >> frankly a lot of the rule recalibration is likely to happen at the regulatory level, the fed, the occ, and ultimately the fdic. there will be new regulatory appointees sent to the institutions, some of theser
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reasonably imminent, and one prominent one look like it will probably be in 2018. with new leadership there would be a lot move discretion. so i think of the two tracks, you you can see a lot of rule changes at the four supervisory agencies, all of which will have new leadership. >> they're going to keep the cfpv? >> there's conversations about making it more accountable to congress, potentially putting it up a different appropriations and funding regime. i think that probably also makes sense, but there's a lot of very active discussion. it's exciting. there's a lot of opportunities and possibilities. there were a lot of dodd will have frank that were sensible, but there are others parts that in our opinion are holding bark
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growth. you talked quite a bit about the large financial instituteses and the regionals. there's 5,300 banks smaller than $1 billion it in asset size we represent. there's 1400 in the bank smaller than $100 million, so i think appropriately there's been a lot on what you can help them serve better their clients. >> some data out yesterday suggesting that lone growth slowing is not the result of -- but more of a demand story. >> i think reg la story assistant would i think spurs economic growth. i'm reasonably certain of that, having spend my first year on the job traveling.
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>> how would it, in your opinion? we've had a few community bankers here and typically they say, no, it's okay. >> it's a great question, david. for example, one of our meetings with the treasury department team, working on the executive order, we went through a number of mortgage servicing rules, some of them were tripping up the bank's ability at the very -- community banks, tripping up their ability to give a creditworthy borrower with no default risk. so little things like that, i think can spur growth. there's exampling that we've been sharing both directly with the treasury, and putting them on our website. we do think and we've sent a recent letter to the treasury, a 10 or 14-page letter outlining a number of small changes that we think would probably help.
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>> we've talked about the costs of implementing the rules. is there a cost in complying with the undoing of the rules, so to speak? >> that's a great question, carl. the no one would do anything to impact safety and soundness, no one wants to see another crisis like the likes of nine or so years ago, but there's a risk on economic growth, so we do -- there were parts of dodd/frank that made sense. we're not -- >> i was it refer to more mustn't day thing like letting go of staff, recalibrating your computers, your logistics in a way to comply. does that make sense? >> there are any tick knowledge robs, i think those product activity and technology
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enhancements make sense. there are the idea that there's a conversation around resolution that didn't exist before is an important conversation. no one wanting to bailouts, but what i think is important that we look at direct aspects of the regulations there aren't helping safety and soundness. look at dodd will frank and everyone will tell you there were some political aspects, we overshot, some of the artificial aspects thresholds particularly get my goat. i think we should be supervising bachks on the risk they pose to the economy, not just an artificial say barrier, but for no good reason. it doesn't make sense. we need to harmonize.
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>> though, rob, this administration has made deregulation a core theme of its pro-growth policies. it makes sense it takes year to get permits. do banks -- the financial crisis wasn't that long ago. do banks noob to do a key beneficiary of a deregulatory push. >> it's not the banks that is are beneficiaries, but clients and customers,ened ultimately this is not about the banks this about economic growth, customers, clients and communities. that's really the folks that will benefit from rule recalibration that doesn't impact safety and soundness. that's not our goal, not our interest. our interest is helping -- the gdp number thats guys covering start with 1s and 2s, we want to see them start with 3s, and first is to get a supervise sore framework that allows growth to continual. >> finally on saved and
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soundness, did you make anything of the president's comments about potential breaking up the big banks? >> i have immense everything for gave -- our take is that we have this diverse financial ecosystem. community bank, and large globally active banks to i'm -- the world's largest and most diverse economy, we do not think a move in that direction is good public policy. we have communicated that. i know it's political popular, but i think it's a solution in search of a problem. >> keep us posted on you are use discussions with the white house and the -- >> thank you, i will. speaking of regulation, coming up on "squawk alley," you'll hear from john waldron, and then at 2:00 p.m. eastern time goldman sack's chairman
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lloyd blankfein since down with wilfred frost. you won't want to miss those. amazon has a new echo, called the echo show. we have details. stocks at this honey, dow is up close to session highs. we're back in a moment. in a mo. predictable. the comfort in knowing where things are headed. because as we live longer... and markets continue to rise and fall... predictable is one thing you need in retirement to help protect what you've earned and ensure it lasts. introducing brighthouse financial. a new company established by metlife to specialize in annuities & life insurance. talk to your advisor about a brighter financial future.
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amazon unveiling the echo show. deidra joins us from san francisco with the details. good morning. >> good morning. this is the latest version of amazon's smart speaker, with two major decision, a touchscreen display and the ability to make calls over the internet. it will cost $230, and it ships june 28th. users will be able to do things like watch news briefings and youtube, see security cameras, photos, and perhaps feel more comfortable ordering stuff through the echo. this is likely another move to further draw people into the amazon ecosystem. the virtual calling feature is
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interests, because it gets amazon into a field currently head by others, the echo show comes just one day after microsoft announced its own competitor, the invoke device that uses core tanno, and google home has been gaining market share, though only introduced late last year verse the first echo interstill, though, amazon dominates. the new report from e-marketer says am sob has 70% of the market, and while we're seeing the first iterationses from microsoft and google. also those, as you have noted amazon at a fresh report high. >> yes, it has been a high flyer. deidra, thank you.
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gentlemen, good morning. i floe you're on mold, and rob, you have a buy. >> the renal many profit -- i don't think that's the near-terr for him cuss. the -- >> it's about getting more people into the ecosystem, and more people to eventually, very sticky, particularly when you get these devices in your homes. you've got an eye, though, and explain who you're worried about when it comes to amazon threats. >> so many on the retail side.
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we downgraded the stock about a week ago. we're seeing a much more resurgent walmart, with their acquisition of jet, they've been investing heavily in e-commerce. in retail, it really was amazon as the defining retailer of the age, but we think the competition is closing that gap a bit. on the cloud side, also? we're seeing more competition from microsoft, google and others. this is -- and again, still number one. >> so take the other a threat to amazon's business? >> yes, i think -- no, i don't think amazon has ever been a one of one. their share in any respect testify markets has never been anywhere near 100%. i think the biggest shift.
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clearly a shift to online. amazon's share of the markets they service are still less than 6%. as that migration moves forward, they're in prime position tore the largest. you know, they're in the pole position for that. >> it reminds me what warren buffett was saying about amazon yesterday, he was glowing. he said he valued the company, but it was hard to put a valuation, so he missed the opportunity to buy it. right now it's heart to adjust the price tag. how do you think about that? >> yes, i think he referenced the psychological issues of missing it 10 x ago and wanting to buy it now. really what investors skee here is the underlying profit in the
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core business is actually very high. they just have incredibly large investments that they're making in a number of core areas. the investment community has a lot of trust in management, believes in the opportunity and is encouraging them to invest. >> ed, you're just not buying this idea? >> we completely agree. we think they'll continue to grow. this stock has outperform almost every stock, and at this point, this is more of a sector weight than an overweight. >> do you think investors will get an opportunity with a better price with a pullback here? >> i think as it continues to hit new highs, ittic ins the risk of these long duration hypothetical earnings power story stories. right now the market has been on a strong upswing, when there is market volatility, an outperformer is likely a source
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of funds and other people will step in and take advantage of the volatility. i think it's more of a market call at this point. >> 30% this year. guys, we'll left it there, good discussion. thank you. rob sanderson and ed yruma. let's get a news update. good morning, sue. good morning. skirmishes broke out atford lauderdale following nine spirit airlines flights. spirit saying some of the pilots had refused to fly. they filed a lawsuit over the union over what they're calling an unlawful job action. the union denied the allegation form the company and its pilots have been in negotiations. insurgents? thailand detonating a car bomb outside a busy shopping center, injuring more than 50 people. the huge blast sent people running for their lives. french police gradually reopening a metro train station after earlier evacuating the
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platforms, because of a security alert. there were no other details about the nature of the operation. qantas' ceo had his speech sbrumted by a imagine who shoved a pie in his face. he left the stays breeflly to clean up, then he returned to the stage to applause from the crowd. he was addressing a business breakfast in perth. >> send it back down to you, carl. >> i think draghi got glitter. macron got some flour, and -- >> now the pie. the pie is back. >> when we return, shares of apple continuing its climb. we'll discuss that and form with the former ceo of apple, john sculley, when "squawk on the street" continues. reet" continu.
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glee sherry, what do we need to know? good morning. >> exit polls as well as major announcer calling for the of moon jae-in. there was also an acceptance speech. he called this day the day that opens the door for a new country, a new south korea. he a vowed to achieve reforms as well as harmony. i think this comes especially after a political scandal that impeached a president. also close to a decade of a conservative rule in the country. this is his human rights lawyer turned politician, who used to serve former -- one of the former presidents in the country as a chief of staff. when it comes to his policies on the economic front, according to
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eurasia group, it's going to be more about fiscal spending as well as corporate reform. especially focusing on those family-owned large conglomerate on how they run themselves. also, north korea policy very much in focus, especially in this particular presidential race. because of the latest tension with north korea, and also because of the trump factor of course. and i want to highlight this is where this gets interesting, because mr. moon used to serve for a president that comes from sunshine policy school. this is the idea that believes in more economic concessions to north korea, engaging po pyongya pyongyang, so i wonder how much of an alignment he could have with the u.s. president when he's trying to put north korea in check, directly or indirectly
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by involving china. guys? >> thank you very much for that story. amazing results in that election. thank you very much. back home topping $800 million for the first time in history as berkshire nearly triple his stake in the compute. joining us this morning, former apple ceo john sculley is with us on set. good to have you back, john. good morning when you think about the run it's had. >> i think everyone is anticipating a huge refresh cycle, so anticipation there. also the iphone becomes more valuable as new services become more attractive. up and down of course apple is growing in service revenue as well. >> do you see them accelerating
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that move? talks with hollywood? things that others have already tried to do? >> i really don't know. i'm not involved with apple, but it will be logical for them to want to move in the content. a look at the activity that's going on with amazon. they're getting deep into content, and turning out high quality, which is always an apple benchmark. >>. >> i think the iphone is still probably the most valuable product in the world and should continue that way for some time. the real question is, as the iphone has more and more services, and more and more are video, the battery life becomes a real issue. will it have a less draw on power? a bigger battery? the iphone just doesn't last as long with all these services.
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>> when they lost the headphone jack ospenceably for more battery price, there was a large outcry. so battery does matter. >> do you think it's a sign that apple has climbed this constant wall of worry? every since steve jobs died, that the invasion would die along with it. i mean, you know how many arguments there were. is this a sign they have managed to overcome that? the bigger question, i think is what happened after the iphone? will it have a completely different form factor? it was different from anything that came about of it.
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it their emphasis is, forget the taxes, we have to fix what's going on with health care. >> as usual, warren buffett and munger are absolutely spot on. it's a bigger applied tax with bigger in gdp and health care than it is with the -- this is corporate tax is about 4% of -- or down to 2% now, i think nobody in d.c. is focused on the cost of health care delivery. two buckets, pun is the 5% of the pop las vegas. 1.5 trillion of -- the other
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bucket, the $840 billion, everything to do with prescription drugs, neither of these buckets has transparency. no one knows what's in it. and so the real opportunity for high tech to do the same things that have been done in other industries telecommunications, so forth, go in and add transparency, and enable you can to look -- we're doing it at rx advanc advance. s much like amazon dramatically changed the whole way we received products. >> munger had comments about the fraud and costs involved in treating the dying. for those who were really in their final days of life. >> well, put it into connect. no otherty country in the world treats the last months of life
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the way we do. keeping people alive when they're not aware of it, is ernl certainly not what i want. mckenzie has done study you've $3 trillion spent, about $900 billion of fraud, abuse, misuse, we can give transparency, we the industry, particular the high-tech innovation side can give transparency to avoidable drug impacts. that's why we'll do $500 million we're forecasting -- >> how much of that is dependent on big data. you know, we have more and more data available, and just growing, mountains of it every day, increasing in size and scope. >> it's really important, david. in the case of health care, he's getting the right data to the right people. folks, the chronically ill, typicallily nine chronic care diseases, the physicians
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specialists writing those prescriptions have no idea what the other prescriptions are being written by the other specialists. it's estimated you could say 30% to 40% just by reducing duplication, reducing side effects from drugs that the doctors didn't know, because they didn't know what else was being prescribed, and then it's all the downstream medical costs. and unnecessary follow upmedical procedures. there's a $450 billion of savings you could fund the entire health care systems. the politicians aren't looking at that. that's why at the present timun the time say focus on that area. >> how much should we pay attention to what the senate dishes out. >> i think people have higher expectations that the senate
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will come up with something that could make a difference in terms of the quality of health insurance. we'll just have to see. i'm actually more interested in what we can do at our company with the states, working to close the medicaid gaps. i'm on my way out to see governor walker in wisconsin this afternoon. i was out with governor kasich a week and a half ago we they are we can take literally bill yos. big costs to medicaid. >> john, good to have you on two important topics. as we head to break. shares of herds getting slammed. a low -- revenue also came in
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beround estimate. much more ahead. stay with us. stay with us.
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cash of the full interview. coming up. coming up. there's a denture adhesive that holds strong until evening. fixodent plus adhesives. just one application gives you superior hold even at the end of the day
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fixodent. strong more like natural teeth. we cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. rick santelli with the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, sara. ira harris back from phoenix. it's probably like it was before you left. it's winter here still. >> it's home. ira, post french elections,s give me your observations. >> it went pretty much as expected, except she got more votes than hire father. her father lost to 82%. so make of that -- but the results were the results.
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that's. interesting, because if the right wins parliament that will force macron to move further to the right in order for him to govern. that will have strife democrat traces in france, guaranteed. >> i guess in the end if i'm agnost agnostic, is macron going to be the doorway to reform in any way in your mind? >> well, he better be, but merkel has already told him, hey, we're not going all out for fiscal stimulus. we want you to restructure first. that will be the theme up until and through the german elections. >> just make sure macron don't stalk to the greeks, he might get an earful. we really don't have any details, but i can tell you what thing, if you think we're actually six rates between now and the end of 2018.
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i've said this a lot, it puts the targets range to 225 to 250, well over 2.25%, is my guess, ten year at least around 3 had the 5. what if the markets don't cooperate? >> your piece you did yesterday was spot on targets, because you're in a dilemma here. it's pretty easy to see. if you look at the 210 curve, 73 was the low that was made, which is a flattening basis. that will be the other retest. 130 will be the seepening test. we're caught in a range, there's no reason to get excited about anything. but, and this is a big but. in greenspan language, if the fed is starting to shrink the balance sheet, the curve ought to steepen, because the market is going to make them pay a price. >> i would then that janet yellen and company watts steepening. what they don't want is a
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flattening/inversion, that's never good, kerr the world runs -- >> if the fed keeps tightening, and then they start treating the balance sheet and that curve starts to flatten, it will fed. they got it wrong. >> once again, the only conclusion any logical person can come to in this micromanaging central bank era we live in, they're going to do what japan did and try to tighten the curve. >> which has been a huge mistake for the japanese in so many different ways. let me tell you this. their models tell them they can shrink the balance sheet by selling off the long end. they're going to be wrong. the market is going to make them wrong, because as they punish the market and the so-called bond vij lanities which we grew up with and we know about because they're continue buying, the market will front run them and their ability to get out won't be as easy as they think. >> front running is an art form. any corporate purchasers after
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mario droggi decided to buy corporates. thank you. sarah, back to you. >> all about balance sheet shrinkage. let's send it out for a look at what is coming up on "squawk alley." good morning. >> good morning, sarah. apple hit $800 billion in the market cap department. we will look at the prospects. also amazon is out with a new device but does it really matter or is this more about the ecosystem. finally, goldman sachs cohead of investment banking is going to join us. all that and more coming up on "squawk alley." ♪
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you guessed it, ceo david abney sitting down with morgan brennan. she joins us with highlights from their conversation. >> reporter: good morning. ups unveiling a partnership for dubai's world expo 2020. we also spoke with ceo about ups's struggle to keep pace with e-commerce which pushed up cost for the company in recent years. ups is investing four billion dollars this year to expand network capacity to better handle the growth, but it also has been implementing new pricing strategies including surge pricing for the upcoming
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season that could essentially charge retailers and other customers for packages that don't actually ever ship. >> so just making sure that during that time of year when certain customers give us a lot more packages, if they try to call us we simply want to be compensated for that call. >> reporter: now, we also talked about president trump and the administration's recently-released proposal to cut the corporate tax rate down to 15%. >> we are encourage willed by what we're hearing. again, we have to get the details, too, but we're a high tech company. for 2017 we're expecting our tax rate to be 35%, so to get a much lower rate, also we would like to see some kind of permanent stability. and then, of course, a territory provision to where we can bring earnings back and that would do
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a lot for us, for our investors. >> reporter: now, ups would also, of course, benefit from infrastructure spending and abney said he would absolutely consider the possibility of public/private partnership but he said, quote, he is encouraged by president trump's recent decision to renegotiate nafta, something he said needs modernizing especially around e-commerce. >> so many of the trump pollities impact them. thank you, morgan. coming up, two exclusive interviews you will not want to miss here. goldman sachs go head of investment banking don waldren is with us and wilfred frost sits down with lloyd blankfein. talking since the big quarterly miss in the first quarter. much more ahead. the dow is up about nine points.
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whether for big meetings or little getaways, member always save more at holidayinn.com welcome back to "squawk on the street." the nasdaq and s&p 500 hitting
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all time highs as market volatility continues to drop. the sliks at its lowest level since 2006. the nasdaq higher in today's trade. retail the big stand out so far. the etf and xrt gaining more than 1% and up 5% over the past five weeks. way fair leading the group of stocks up 22% after reporting better than expected numbers. the stock is on track for best in a year and a half. back to the gang downtown. the start of "squawk alley." hi, carl. >> thanks, very much. good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. at amazon headquarters in seattle, 11:00 a.m. on wael street and "squawk alley" is live. ♪

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