tv Mad Money CNBC May 16, 2017 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
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>> yes. >> i like urban because it's cheap and the way it's trading after hours. >> pete. >> xilinx, say it, pete, giddy up. >> tomorrow at 5:00 more my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now, hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me or tweet me @jim cramer. why the heck is it so darn hard to stick with winners, on the
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20th anniversary of amazon's ipo, a lot of people are musing about how so mathis stock evade most investors. why don't we leave amazon alone here. you either caught it or you didn't. i still like it. i think it can go higher. it went higher again today. i want to zoom out and discuss some stocks that are hot in today's market. and why it's so darn hard to stay in them, even though i think they could be incredibly rewarding. so listen up, let's make some money. amazon was -- home depot has
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been a fabulous performer for ages. but we have all heard the drum beat that amazon's finally gotten to home depot, that people are buying housewares and gardeninging equipment online, therefore home depot had to miss the numbers. in some cases that may be true. however this morning home depot reported the best numbers of any major retailer. so much for the short fall thesis. that makes this stock the exhibit a for why people sell winners, they're scared. yet home depot isn't your typical retailer. for starters it's not in a traditional mall. which we know has become the kiss of death to retailers. the professional drove the up
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side this quarter. the reason? because it's much easier to pick up big bulky items at home depot as opposed to buying them online. these guys come with pick-up truck, they can do it. the other reason the amazon immunity makes sense, home depot is really levered to the value of your home, and the scarcity of homes. in the fabulous conference call today, the amazing ceo pointed out a statistic that captures the real trend here. there are 76 million households in the united states, and of those, there are only 3.2 million who have negative equity in their home. if you go back to 2011, 11 million of noes homeowners had negative equity in their home. since 2011, homeowners have
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enjoyed a 113% increase in wealth, which amounts to $50,000 per household. given that increase, and the fact that there's only 3.8 months of inventory, we used to have double that in the great recession, tom may conclude that, and i quote, i think that leads into people thinking remodel versus move, end quote, there you go, that's what home depot's about. now let's ask what kept people from owning home depot at the bottom of the recession? i would say that at every turn, you had a stock that got ahead of itself on good news, and then to pull back, because of some event or moment or quarter that turned out to be irrelevant or just plain wrong. i think the action of the stock, the declines in the stock after huge jumps cause a lot of people
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to sell it and be grateful for a good gain instead of holding out. if you own stock in home depot, you should know that you're never going to get rid of the amazon worry, it is always going to be with us, even as i have explained that the company is levered to homeowner ship, not online convenience. finally the biggest reason people are selling stocks, washington. that's right, washington. these days people constantly tell me, i talk to the street constantly. here's what they say, hey, cramer, you're crazy to want to own stocks, it's insane what's happening with washington, comey, russia, intelligence leaks. if you listen to the left, you think that trump is some manchurian candidate. if you listen to the right, you think somebody should be
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prosecuted for covering this story. but you know what? i actually more like sam garard in "the fugitive" i don't care. it's not a reason to sell home depot, if the stock were to go down on trump's tweets, it's a reason to buy the stock of home depot because the stock is levered to housing, not the white house. wrong house. i think the way the stock was heading in the afternoon, it's hea headed lower. next up, how about advanced micro devices, amd was at $4 last year, now it's at 12.50 zlrz. all right, what made that $4 into $12 move so inaccessible? first, amd had a bad balance
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sheet. as the stock went higher, the company had to sell a lot of equity and acquire as sets. amd used to have a terrible reputation for faulting when you thought it was going good. intel missed numbers a couple of times, that knocked the stock down, as did the total prow wes of amd's gaming competitor. and amd reported a really horrendous quarter. it was hard to believe it could ever recover because it was simply horrific. but i think the last quarter now represented a shakeout and the stock has now come back to life after that analyst's meeting today. it's now on video which has a lot more going for it. and amd is not a bust, it's at .75, the stock could be at $15 within days.
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alphabet, the parent of google. here's one that's been almost impossible to hold on to, because of the headlines, the press, what the analysts say. just in the last few months, think about what's been thrown at you if you own shares in this country. we heart endless chatter about how alphabet's whole ad business is falling apart. because big advertisers are pulling out, as they don't want their ads to appear against hate speech or porn. so youtube is done. headlines, articles, a lot of trees were killed by this thing. i told anyone who would listen, which was nobody, that alphabet said it would have the situation under control in no time. like dump on, dump on me, whatever. as it turned out, i was dead right. the business is more solid than ever, and selling the stock was a mistake on anything youtube
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relate related. at the same time that alpha was being hounded for ad placement issues, it continued to spend money on these thing that detracted in its profitability. and nothing more than waymo, the self-driving car. i have said that alpha is way ahead of anyone else in this business. we heard that ford motor is willing to partner with waymo. and it came from rogerary. right now ford is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to develop self-driving cars, if it partners with waymo, it could make hundreds of more millions of dollars. it would be a major profit center for alphabet. in fact the news itself about ford was a reason to buy the
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stock of alphabet. nobody cared. home depot, amd, alphabet, and three stocks i think are not only worth owning but buy, buy, buy. it's tough to find winners and more important it's hard to stay in winners as they go high er. keep these three stocks in mind the next time you decide you have had enough and you can't take the volatility anymore. i'm going to sri in north carolina. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. i'm a first-time caller, and i got all my education from your audio book. "get rich carefully." my stock is tjx.
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after listening to your show, i took a small position in tjx before earnings and right now it's 4% down from where it was all day today. i want to pull the trigger and buy some more. >> we have had a lot of soul searching today. i have a club conference call tomorrow, i've been soul searching and i agree with matthew boss, that you're going to be selling it right at the moment where they're just going to get all that merchandise from macy's and penny's. when i say soul searching, tjx missed and i carried it around like a lead weight. let's go to tim in california. >> caller: boo-yah, jim cramer.
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you know, i just want to say, it's a pleasure to talk to you, i've been watching and listening for years. >> i would rather be where you are and talk with you than be here in jersey. but we have to make do with what we have. >> caller: isn't that the truth? anyway, fully agreed on that. i have been looking for the best of breed in the money transfer space. >> okay. >> caller: i found global payments inc. tim, you're another guy, it's like our scrviewers are smarter than i am. i've been recommending mastercard and visa. this company is a winner and you got to stay with it. even at a 52-week high. even a guy who follows our show more than i do. i should retire and it should just be a group effort.
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i get it, sometimes it's hard to stay in a good stock as they go higher. as we saw in amazon and alphabet, amd. the tech market has been sunshisurging with names both young and old participating in the move. but one stock has been left out. maybe it's time to reconsider qualcomm. then the stocks the biggest hedge fund bought and sold during the first quarter, oh, my, we have to do earning they say? or maybe we shouldn't. i'll check the foundation of the group with one of the leading players in the space, i suggest you stick with cramer. finding time to get things done isn't easy.
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. we know that tech has been on fire lately, and nasdaq another high, especially the red hot semiconductor space. chipmakers pretty much hitting new highs on a daily basis. but there are a few stocks that have remained conspicuously absent. qualcomm is a company that is in the business of semiconductors, but qualcomm's stock has just been a total dog m since the beginning of the year, the nasdaq has rallied 17%, but qualcomm is down 7%. so could it be time for qualcomm to play catch up? tonight we're going off the charts with tim collins who's had a really good record with
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tech stocks so far this year. you can see qualcomm's stock has been stuck in a rut for most of 2017. it's doing absolutely nothing. it got pole axe back in january. from the 60s to the low 50s. and it's been trading between 52 and 59. never filling that gap we saw four months ago. collins believes that qualcomm could soon see a definitive change in trajectory, the reason? first of all the stock's 50-day moving average has flattened out lately, to where it has moved just above the top of an ascending triangle pattern. why does that matter? because collins think this key moving average could be a great trigger, if qualcomm stock can just break above it. something that's nearly a reality, that the stock is 10 cents from bussing through it's
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10-day moving average. collins like it's chances for a real rally. admittedly qualcomm did this already, if we go back and look at march, you see it had that calm right there. and a few weeks later, it just came right back down, it was a sucker's rally. what makes the difference? according to collins it's all about the slope of the 50-day moving average, in march it was still declining, now it's nice and flat. that means if qualcomm pushes higher, it will run up alongside this moving average. and you look at this volume indicator, looks at volume show to predict changes in a stock's trajecto trajectory. suggesting that qualcomm could soon be ready to roar. at the very bottom of the chart, vortex indicator.
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it's actually a technical tool that uses two different oscillators that spots early trend changers. as collins points out, it meat a bullish cross over a few weeks ago. the last time that happened was in february, and qualcomm rallied 4 bucks. so if qualcomm tags on another buck or so it will take the stock to 57 and change and wills it will break out of the moving pattern. collins thinks this $55 stock is very close to a big move, could very quickly climb to $59 boom like that. what about the moving average? collins says this tells you more about the risk and reward of owning qualcomm stock. it was not very pretty given the-see this shade in gray?
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it represents 65 days. at the moment the stock is very close to crossing above that key legal. and just like we saw with the 50-day moving average. on top of that, qualcomm is close to a fibonacci replacement level here. he's the medieval godfather of mathematics who many technicians adore because he discovered a series of ratios that appear over and over again in both nature and bizarrely the stock market. right now qualcomm is just a dime away from the stock's replacement of its -- or a ceiling of resistance. the retracemes if we can get a close above that average, collins thinks it could go to 69. if qualcomm sells off for below
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52, that's another key level and collins says you got to cut your losses, wow, so we see it at the different legals. again in march qualcomm tried to rally, and it's always looking at what failed. but just like on the daily chart, collins believes we have a much more bullish set up today than we did a month ago. another momentum indicator tells you when a stock is overbought or oversold. collins points out that this stock has made a bullish crossover. meaning we're still a long way from being overbought so we have some room if the stock starts running. then it's the oscillator down here, it's a complicated tool that looks at the number of buyers and sellers in a given doing. this one has also made a bullish crossover. which will serve as a trigger telling all the other chart
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watchers out there that it is time to buy the stock of qualcomm. if we get this trigger, a qualcomm could climb to $68. while qualcomm has caught fire, the stock has lagged dramatically behind its peers, and given all the diverse indication away from cell phones that the company is getting, it wouldn't be at all surprising if qualcomm can levitate above the group. icahn was right to sell apple at 75 bucks. i'm checking out a home that could put you on solid ground. and it's a company that has $18 billion in loans and it just
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here's the problem with piggy backing, hedge fund extraordinary, a smart buy, buys some allergan. he buys a ton of bristol myers. jana offloads most of its bristol myers stake. maybe it's time to sell, sell, sell. yes, it's 13-f time where funds disclose their holdings and investors might want to piggy back, they've done the research,
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right? why not tag along for free, what an opportunity. it's a time honored concept. and with the concept of hedge funds, even though they're a group that underperform, it's amazing that we still actually care about this nonsense. they aren't telling us anything, they aren't advising us. and for all we know they're selling these stocks for any number of reasons, including if they have a profit or if they have redemption, maybe what they sold, they just bought it back. we have no idea. just in case you think i'm crazy and these people are worth piggy backing on. back in 2013, we learned that carl icahn sold all of his stock in apple when it was at $75. what was he worried about? he said i am worried about china, so he dumped the stock, here's what's so interesting about this, sure, the obvious is
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true, it was a terrible time to sell apple, the stock was at his bottom. plus warren buffett decided to buy a ton of apple making in large position. but put all that away, forget it. and forget how many people want ibm because of buffet admits he may have been wrong about the company. if you sold apple back then at $95 because of carl icahn, he doesn't deserve the blame, you do. there was a slowdown in the people's republic, and indeed it did hurt the company's sales, and it mattered. it was offset by other factors, since then china has gotten stronger. and carl had a gigantic gain in a stock. it's a cardinal sin to turn a
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mag -- icahn did what was right for icahn, he doesn't work for you, he has zero fiduciary responsibility to you. none. i consider it a gift that he even tells you what he's up to. the lesson should be crystal clear. whether it be bristol myers or apple or any other stock, you must do your own home work. if you follow the big boys, you'll end up buying high and selling low. i want you to recognize, that while you may not be a full-time money manager, there's no reason whatsoever you have to be a full-time amateur. bob in connecticut, bob? >> caller: boo-yah, hey, jimmy. >> yeah. >> caller: over the last 30 years i have accumulated significant equal positions in both coke and pepsi. would the soda tax expanding and
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accelerating, should i start taking profits and sell off some pop stock? >> first if you're up a lot and nobody ever got hurt taking profit. bulls make money, bears make money, and hogs, they get slaughtered. i like the prospects under the new ceo and my travel trust has a very big position in soda. it's just a good idea. i want you to take a little profit, but not because i don't like the stocks. kenneth in oklahoma, kenneth? >> caller: a big boo-yah to jim cramer. i had a question about american airlines. aal. >> look, i like aal, but i got the travel trust southwest air,
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i think that southwest is the best of the bunch. garry kelly is always welcome. as a matter of fact sometimes when i take over a summer, occasionally i do take off, gary kelly should be running the show. he's the best airline manager there is. activist investors do what's best for them, not necessarily what's best for you, as we saw in icahn an apple. home sales just hit their stronger sales pitch in decades. and then from space travel to streaming music, the cnbc disruptor list. and rapid fire, tonight's edition of "the lightning round." so stick with cramer.
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taken public by a group of private equity firms back in 2013. this stock is on fire, in fact it's rallied more than 70% in the last 12 months. they reported an excellent fourth quarter. on the other hand, we also know that -- taylor morrison has done three separate 10 million share offerings in the last year. so far they haven't stopped the stocks march higher, whose shares are up a few secents. there could be more deals ahead. it could be difficult to navigate. even if the stock isn't diluted, it represents insider selling only. let's go to the chairman and ceo of taylor homes, ms. palmer, welcome to "mad money."
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>> very good to be here. >> first we had some numbers this morning, april housing starts fell short of consensus. it's been about four weeks since that report. are you seeing any of the weakness that were in those figures? >> no, i'm not. it's hard to look at a snapshot of a month. but if you look at where we are year over year for the first four months of the year, we're high single digits up year over year. >> you said the economy is going in the right direction, but you remain cautiously optimistic? >> i'm so proud of what the business has done. and we are very optimistic, we're seeing strength across all of our markets, we're seeing it across all of our consumer groups. but you always have to look at your business and stay one step
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ahead. >> people 55 and older are quite beautiful. is that what happens? no one wants to feel like they're old, but when they get there, it doesn't necessarily mean that they're old? >> you need to visit one of our communities. >> many of my friends have said, jim, don't be biassed, because it's really pretty cool. >> it's a great live style. it's really like being on vacation. i mean our communities, and that consumer group, not just in florida, generally across the board is doing so well. these are folks who know what they want, know where they want it, when they want it. we're very pleased with our 50 plus, it's about a third of our business. >> what amenities do you get that are attractive to people. >> we have different things across the u.s. there are some that play with the local marketplace, and we'll have clubhouses, we'll have golf courses and pools, a lot of clubs, travel, it's really about
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the lifestyle experience, jim. some of them have spa amenities, each one is a little different. >> we talked earlier about this as something you can't control, you've got terrific people who have helped you do great things. and they want to cash out and that is certainly part of their charter. we can't control the under 50%, they can do whatever they want and it hasn't hurt to buy on them. but what do you say to our investors, because i obviously love the story. what happens tomorrow if they do it to you. >> bye-bye. you know, jim, they have been in the stock for, we went public four years ago. >> right. >> at some point to your comment, this is what you expect to happen, and what we heart for the first couple of years was that we needed to get some liquidity into the marketplace. as you said, these will wonderful people, and we have been very blessed as an organization to have their
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leadership. so over-time the market will tell us when, but certainly they have been opportunistic over the last several months and the stock's recovered very nicely and i can't be more pleased. >> they haven't sold any downofferings. >> i think the thee cities they sub skrished to when they purchased the organization a number of years ago, i think they're very bullish on the business and the industry. >> we're looking at your tax situation and we're thinking if there was tax relief, you have to be the highest taxpayer than any of the companies we have talked to. what would you do with the money? buy more land? because there can't be enough, you have about 4 1/2 years' supply but you have it in the right places. >> we continue to be opportunistic in the land market, we continue to invest into the growth of the business, the people, technology,
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training, we'll look at our debt profiles, we'll look at mna. i think time will tell. if in fact, i mean the industry on its own has been really one of the highest taxpayers of any industry. >> exactly. >> so i think it will be a real gift, if some of the things we're hearing about, ideals and principles come to be. >> today we were discussing the craziness in washington versus a pro business president and i was saying, well, why would you sell this company, why would you sell taylor morrison, they don't really relate in some ways. if you're worried about national intelligence and being compromised, that has nothing to do with the conscious psyche of a home buyer. >> i these what we're seeing within the industry and in the consumer, that they're feeling good, they're feeling good about their jobs, we're finally starting to see some income growth. they're not looking over their shoulders. they're feeling good about their
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personal balance sheet and that's starting to show up within our industry. we have seen volume through the job market. what we haven't seen is job growth and income growth together. it's one of the reasons i'm so excited about what we have ahead. >> we have also seen some household formation by millennial's moving out. do you have homes for them too? >> we do, in fact about a third of our business is that first-time buyer. that first time buyer is a millennial, it could be a professional, it could be california investors at $800,000. >> that's a buy over san francisco where some starter homes are in the million dollars. >> that's about a third of the business. the second third is the second-time move up. and the third is that 50 plus. we have a pretty varied product and we really look to appeal to what those buyers wants and
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it is time for "the lightning round." [ buzzer ] "and then "the lightning round" is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? we're going to randy in texas. randy? >> caller: i'm hearing a lot about ransom ware and the cyber security threat, and also about the increasing tensions with north korea, want to know your prospects on raytheon. >> i think there was a takeover rumor, do not buy for takeover, by it for fundamentals which are quite strong. john in pennsylvania, john? >> caller: hi, jim. i give you a philadelphia eagle boo-yah.
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jim, i got 200 shares of celgene, i have had it for 2 1/2 years and have doubled my money. >> you have doubled your money, sell half and let the rest ride. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. h i got a promising forecast and acquisition news, but it's been a bumpy ride so far, i had a ltd down last week in expectations. should i get out?
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>> i don't favor the situation. i'm a distinct no situation, i'm a balance sheet guy first, and that balance sheet is still not good enough for me. how about phil in new york, phil? >> caller: thank you for taking my call. i would like your opinion on pei, pennsylvania real estate investment trust. >> this is the kind of shopping mall experience that everybody's worried about. this is precisely the kind of thing people are saying, whoa, i'm nervous, and therefore i'm nervous because there are some very good people that look at these and say this is not what you want in your portfolio. janet in indiana. >> caller: hi, jim. thank you for taking my call. well, i'm interested in insys, it was recommended, marijuana
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and all the things they were doing, but now they're in trouble. >> this is a little too speculative for you, i think you should think about bll corp. and ladies and gentlemen, that is the conclusion of "the lightning round." 3:45? uh, compliance training. 6:30? sam's baseball practice. 8:30? tai chi. yeah, so sounds relaxing. alright, 9:53? i usually make their lunches then, and i have a little vegan so wow, you are busy. wouldn't it be great if you had investments that worked as hard as you do? yeah. introducing essential portfolios. the automated investing solution that lets you focus on your life.
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touch. number 45 on the cnbc disruptor 50 list. >> this week we're introducing you to some names on the disr t disruptor list. so far the online winner that's shaking up the financial industry. so if i started refinancing student loans, and since then they have -- they're sort of like the anti-begank, with a simple lending process, no high fees and an incredibly personal touch. could this be the future of finance? let's go off the tape with mike cavin, the co-founder and kroem of sofi of how his company is turning the banking industry
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upside down. one of the things i like about your company is that the people that bank with sofi are members, not customers. >> it's the concept of being in line with them. we want to help them with their career, with their relationships, even with their dating, and we want folks to be successful. >> and younger people, they don't know anything better than -- to me, they would probably try to figure out why the other guy isn't a customer? >> we looked at a gap between what a 35-year-old wanted from a bank and what they're getting. >> the building and loan, where george bailey really s come on, we're all members, what are you doing? that was banking, this is the same thing. >> it's the same community concept. for example one of our members lose a job, we help them get in
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unemployment forbearance. >> mortgages, very exciting, life insurance, hard to fathom for people. they don't really get it. and then wealth management. something that i have always thought cost a fortune to offer, but you're obviously able to offer all these premium products at a price that seems like you can't make that much money, so explain that to me. >> the biggest opportunity we have is that these members love sofi. 40% of our mortgages come from sofi members. something like life insurance is perfect for our member, it's great when you have a kid. term life, that's the firearm to think about it. the ability to deliver that context chully with people. >> if you were to start --
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whoever was starting bank of america and citi, if they have the net, this is what they would have started, no? >> absolutely. and i think what's going to happen is the banks are going to move towards our model over time. so we don't think we're going to change all of banking. but we're going to drag them into another service model that will align with the customer. >> which will also cut your profit margin? >> if you lothere's huge tuchlt expand. and it comes down to kwos of acquisition, if you build really song brand, really stronger v van -- >> there are a lot of people who watch us who in the last five years have been told by their brokers, that they're not big enough to be helped.
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>> i think it's a very shortsighted view. if you look at our members, a lot of them are in the very early stages of their career, and the idea of ignoring them until they get to a particular dollar number, so we're allowed to build an engagement. you refinance your student loans with us, you save $500, you put $50 a month towards retirement or some other goal and leverage that wealth account. >> is there a level where you max out. 300,000 people, how can you still say, you know what? today we're going to analyze as many people in a day as we did in a month five years ago. how do you know your analysis is still good? >> it's all around the big data services that we use. it scales infinitely and that helps on the margin side. >> you did have a commercial in the super bowl, which i know some people thought was controversial. what's the next visible and how can you not be worried that
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someone, one of these banks sees you, i am just going to do it. we're going to open one tomorrow, and we're going to be better than sofi. >> we like media, we like sporting events in particular, i think we're in the nba finals right now. you'll see some sofi ads being run in there, very successful for us on customer acquisition by the way, it's not just about copying sofi's model or copying the balance sheet, it's around culture and attitude towards that member. and i think that's a substantive change that the financial services industry right now doesn't have its arms around and it's giving us a run way to go out and be as big as we can be. >> i have had the same guys for 30 years, i wish i was with you guys. >> you still can be. >> i'm pretty much set, because i'm not allowed to invest. but if i were able to invest and
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it is very hit or misup there. this evening we have got red robin gourmet reporting a surprise. and jack in the box a surprising number. and you know which one i like in that sector. i like chipotle. i think this reads well for chipotle. tomorrow's target reads well. kohl's and tjx. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, i promise to find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i'll see you tomorrow.
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