hello. welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth. these are your headlines. a recovery rally on oil which gains on a draw down of invento inventories, but it's green energy in focus as donald trump says he will announce his decision on the paris accord today. banco popular shares sink to the bottom of the european market on reports it has been warned by a watchdog to wind down if it fails to find a buyer soon. a leadership debate to end

the month of may, by without the prime minister. other party leaders go head to head as the latest polls show labour closing the gap on the conservatives ahead of the june 8th election. >> the russian central bank governor tells cnbc exclusively that there is room for interest rates to go lower. >> we cut our interest rates. i think we have room for easing more. the base of this easing will depend on the economic situation. glad you're with us on this thursday morning. let's get straight to eurozone economic data in the form of eurozone manufacturing pmi, surging in may as new orders mount up. we have the may final factory reading at 57, the strongest in over six years. we're seeing from the report that inflationary pressures have stayed strong. euro/dollar not acting too much

to this. off by 0.1% at 112.31. the italian pmi falling back in may versus april. the french number pulling back from six-year highs. the german number once again was quite strong. let's look at the european markets. the ftse 100 is back in record territory up by 0.3%. much of it is due to the weakness of the pound. the xetra dax is up by a similar percentage, up by 43 points. the cac 40 advancing to the nun of 0.4%. a fairly positive session across europe today. when it comes to the sectors, banks are not doing so well today. this is in part down to the fact that in the u.s. we had some downbeat comments from some of the banking ceos when it comes to the outlook for second quarter revenues. that's putting pressure on the banks. i want to dive into shares of banco popular, trading at the bottom of the stoxx 600 following a report that says a watchdog warned eu officials that the bank may need to be

wound down if it fails to find a buyer. according to the reuters report, the head of the single resolution board issued an early warning but later denied it issued any warnings. i guess we're none the wiser at this point. former fbi director james comey is expected to testify in public before the senate intelligence committee next week after receiving clearance from special counsel robert mueller. it is still unclear whether president trump will invoke his executive privilege to prevent mr. comey from testifying in front of the committee investigating russian eelection interference. nbc's andrea mitchell has more. >> reporter: tonight james comey has the green light to testify to congress as early as next week. permission from special counsel robert mueller and expected to be asked about what the president said to him about the russia probe. nbc news previously reported comey told friends he felt pressure to back off from the investigation.

this as the house intelligence committee approved seven subpoenas, four for former national security adviser, michael flynn, trump lawyer michael cone and their businesses on the russia probe and three for classified reports related to whether former obama officials improperly accessed the identity of trump associates and intelligence reports. rice strongly denied it to us. >> did you leak the name of mike flynn? >> i leaked nothing to nobody and never have and never would. >> reporter: meanwhile, hillary clinton blasted russian spies for hacking her campaign manager's e-mails, and then working with american political operatives, she said, to target her campaign with false messages on the internet. >> the russians, in my opinion, and based on the intel and counterintel, people i've talked to, could not have known how best to weaponize that information unless they had been guided, and here -- >> guided by americans? >> guided by americans. >> reporter: who did she say created the false internet

messages? top campaign fund raisers and the president's son-in-law. >> they came to jared kushner and basically said, we will marry our operation, we will marry that with the rnc on two conditions, you pick steve bannon and you pick kellyanne conway. bannon had been running the breitbart operation supplying a lot of the untrue, false stories. >> hillary clinton making an appearance once again. the state department has denied reports that certain russian sanctions are starting to be lifted. the "washington post" claims that the trump team was returning to two compounds to their russian owners. they were shut down last year by the obama administration after alleged interference in the

american election. geoff, maybe hopes are being pulled back when it comes to the reset that everyone was expecting when it came to the u.s. and russia. what's the feeling on the ground? >> i don't think anybody is holding their breath. clearly when president trump came into office, there were great hopes that there might be some early movement on the sanctions regime. president obama was very much seen as a driver of tough sanctions against russia. president trump appeared to suggest as a candidate that he would get on with the job. now we know that his own presidency is mired in certain intelligence committee inquiries around relationships with russians and, of course, on this whole issue of whether the russian government meddled in the u.s. election. let's set that to one side. i think for all of us we have to wait and see whether the u.s. senate intelligence committee

can find a smoking gun on these various investigations. as far as the russians are concerned, i wouldn't say they are relaxed about sanctions, but they are sanguine. they accept they may stay in place for some time and they will run the economy accordingly. one of the features of this commit is traditionally it's had high inflation, high interest rates. the conservative person here at the central bank has insists that interest rates remain high until inflationary pressures are coming down. inflation is coming down and quickly. that's the question i kicked off with, isn't it time we started to see interest rates coming down more quickly? what is staying her hand? let's listen to what she had to say. >> according to our internal research, our neutral real interest rate could be 2.5,

2.75%. that means we stay at 4% inflation, we could have 6.5, 6.75% of nominal rate. our key rate, policy rate is much higher now as you said. why? because we have this elevated inflation expectations. they're not anchored, they're higher than our target. that's why we are trying to keep the toughness of our policy to achieve our target for medium term. of course we see some inflationary risks related to the dynamic of oil prices. they are quite high, but who knows, the dynamic of oil prices is not very predictable, we can say.

>> let me just be clear then, you are concerned that this drop in inflation may only be a temporary phenomena. >> we see some factors behind this drop in inflation. inflation declined faster than we expected. it's true. it's declined because of our tough monetary policy, but we see some temporary factors. the first is it passed through due to higher oil prices than we forecast, that are forecast. our forecast was $40 per barrel, now it's about $50 per barrel and more. other factors which can be temporary, it's unusually low price growth in the first quarter of this year. we see that some season adjusted

pick up in inflation could be, but we're more confident with our policy we could achieve our target. we almost achieve this. >> we have an opec deal extension. the price after dropping a little has now steadied around $49, $50 a barrel. given this new deal has been struck, you have new information about what the oil price will do. do you think you're being overly pessimistic by thinking 40 when maybe you should be thinking $10 more at $50 for the average for the rest of this year? that does change the way you need to think about inflation and interest rates. i think we should be cautious. we should be conservative and consider some inflationary risks. of course this agreement with

opec has supported oil prices. at least in short-term. but it's very difficult to predict the dynamic of oil price for longer term. we don't know exactly what could be the reaction of shale oil. we see that technologies are developing. i think oil price dynamic in the medium term could be in the range of $40 to $50 per barrel. we will revise our forecast in mid-june. our forecast and baseline scenario is $40 per barrel. maybe for this year we can revise it up. but i think once more again we should be very conservative in our monetary policy.

we cut our interest rates. and i think we have room for easing more. the base of this easing will depend on the economic situation, on the actual inflation, on inflationary expectations, on the dynamic of oil prices. we are data dependent. every meeting, every policy setting meeting we analyze all these factors. we decide about next step. >> so we've already had several stepped cuts in interest rates in recent months. we're about a fortnight away from the next central bank meeting. it will be interesting to see to what extent ms. nabiullina think she's can deliver now with inflation hovering around the 4.1% level. it will be interesting as well to see whether we get anything that's market moving in terms of the ruble or the market or interest rates when we hear from president putin.

he will speak here in st. petersburg tomorrow in the planary session. we will bring that live to you from about midday friday. back to you. >> we're looking forward to that. thank you very much for your coverage. let's take it back to the markets. i want to show you what cable is doing. it is under pressure again today. no surprise. 1.2873. not a huge amount of pressure, but this essentially follows yet another poll showing that the lead by the conservatives and theresa may is tightening to 3 points over jeremy corbyn of the labour party. that follows yesterday's yougov poll which shows they may lose a majority. for the month of may, sterling down 1%. we have taken out the 1.30 level. the expectations then that the conservatives would still win the election with a landslide.

since then the polls have been tightening. that's why we dropped off those levels, 1.2875 is the current print. i want to show you what's been happening to oil prices. it was a very important month for oil prices, given we had the opec meeting. as you can see, what essentially happened here is buying the rumor, sell the fact. after that opec meeting in which they agreed on the nine-month extension of the current deal, we saw a lot of volatility and mostly selling in the oil price. now back below the 50 level, 48.85. on the day, up by 1.1%. coming up, bitcoin's bouncing back. what's behind the recent rally in the digital currency? we'll bring you expert opinion after this short break. with type 2 diabetes a lower a1c is a lot about choices. but it can be hard sometimes, 'cause different sides of you

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netflix plans to spend $6 billion on original content in 2017 with that number expected to increase in the coming years. speaking to cnbc on the sidelines of the code c conference, reid hastings says spending will go hand in hand with new shows and films. he also commented on what he sees the biggest competition, seeing amazon as one of the biggest threats to their business. >> they're so scary. how are they doing so many different business areas so well? it's like they're trying to repeal the basic laws of business, of limited capabilities. we're continuing to watch them, be impressed with them and they're helping to grow the industry. >> are they your biggest threat? >> they're awfully scary, i would say. i don't know if they're biggest, but awfully scary. another focus was on cloud computing. ruth porat said google was late to the game when it came to

investing in the cloud. >> if you look at what it takes to have a successful cloud business, we have it. an efficient technical infrastructure, security we have, data analytics, and our g suite apps. so we brought it under one roof, we have been late to invest, which is why we're investing meaningfully. >> bitcoin's rally in recent weeks has been supported by asset managers, which add the crypt tocy to investment platforms. the price of by the coyne hitco driven up 60% in the month of may. let's show you the nasdaq in the month of pay. up 2.5%. that belies the record highs we've seen. except the last two trading days. we've seen record high after record high. this market has locked its

seventh straight positive month in a row. the fest time that's happened since 2013. since the election, the nasdaq overall is up by 20%. let's talk more about whether this rally can actually continue definitely with cyrus muallo from cm research. when is the end to this rally? >> i think for the big tech stocks, the rally has some way to go. the f.a.n.g. stocks in the west and the b.a.t. stocks in china will rise. the reason is partly how you look at things. sometimes you can look at the stocks and say they're defying gravity. we think it's the big themes, the big tech themes driving share prices in the tech sector. we have a thematic engine to put these things together and an ail go rit t algorithm to see who is the

best. we see the big themes in the next one, two years are benefiting big stocks much more. cloud computing requires huge investment by amazon, google, microsoft, ibm. augmented reality or autonomous vehicles requires huge data sets. that's why microsoft bought linkedin and ibm brought truth analytics for the 200 million profiles they have. so the themes today benefit the big guys because of these network effects. >> essentially the winner takes it all, but that bodes badly for smaller stocks. does that mean we have to stay with the mega caps, stay with the f.a.n.g.s and don't look for smaller opportunities? >> not at all. the f.a.n.g.s and two of the b.a.t.s will do well. i have an avoid risk on alibaba

because of the risks associated with them. this morning, palo alto which we had a buy on for a long time, has done poorly for a while, soared because they're in the bit of cybersecurity which is unified threat management, network security, and ai which i think will do well. other bits of cybersecurity, cloud security, data security, application security may not do well. it's important to pick the right sub technologies within each big theme. >> within this exuberance and bullishness around the tech sector, forgive me for playing devil's advocate here. that's what we have to do. when we see a sector going from record highs to record highs, people point to valuation. valuation is sky high. trading on a pe of 27 in the u.s. is that not warning sign enough? >> again, valuation assumes some kind of dcf model or traditional body m u bottom up approach where you

take the past and extrapolate into the future, for many aspects of tech that is not applicable. some of these big themes are stuff we can't forekracast toda because they don't exist. all these things don't exist commercially yet. but they're going to be big. we kind of know who will lead the them. >> what's the difference to the dotcom bubble of the 2000? the fact that profits are there? >> there's a big difference. we say the dotcom bubble as if analysts got it all wrong. but remember, amazon, microsoft, apple, all these companies have a higher valuation today than they did in 1999. so actually the analysts got it right. the problem is they got it wrong for the majority of stocks. they said all stocks, including telecom stocks, telecom stocks had gone ballistic. rereali we realized later on they were

just utilities. for the next three to six months, the f.a.n.g. stocks and b.a.t.s will do well. i want to interrupt for a second. we're have 5:live sha live shota merkel and china's president lee speaking at the moment. merkel says we must expand our partnership with china in different areas at times of global insecurity. she said china and germany should work together on trade and they need clear acknowledgment on free trade. she sees the wto in a central role and that the eu is trying to find a solution that does not discriminate against china. merkel adds we want equal treatment of german firls in ch firms in china. there's been a lot of become and forth and heated language when it came to some of the copy cats in china and the lack of access

to the chinese markets. seems like there's goodwill on both sides to clear up some of these issues. also maybe these comments are interesting given the recent comments by angela merkel that germany and the eu should not be relying on the u.s. too much. what germany is doing now is looking east, looking towards china, that sends a clear message to donald trump after that fairly disappointing g77 meg7 meeting. what are the key stocks that you are looking at? what do you have to own in your portfolio now? >> we're looking at the big themes. one of the stocks we like that nobody else likes is ibm. we think they'll perform again well on six big themes. which are cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, industrial internet, software defined network, cybersecurity and a few others. >> can i add in the recent bank

of america tech report, we actually saw that ibm was one of the most held stocks. why do you think you have this contrarian view? what does the market have wrong? >> the market in a sense is looking backwards. in their heads they have the analyst models which say revenues from the hardware business have fallen for 20 consecutive quarters. but we're looking in the future. all the research we've done indicates ibm is investing in the right areas, but that management execution has been weak in recent months. if management execution can be improved, ibm could soar. >> as always, thank you very much for your time. appreciate it. we are going to go for a quick break. check out world markets live, that's our blog which runs throughout the european trading day. we'll be back with uk data after this short break.

welcome back to "street signs." i'm carolin roth. these are your headlines. a recovery rally on oil which gains on a draw down of inventories after yesterday's sharp closes, but it's green energy in focus as donald trump says he will announce his decision on the paris accord today. banco popular shares sink to the bottom of the european

market on reports it has been warned by a watchdog to wind down if it fails to find a buyer soon. a leadership debate to end the month of may, by without the prime minister. other party leaders go head to head as the latest polls show labour closing the gap on the conservatives ahead of the june 8th election. >> in an exclusive interview with cnbc, the russian central bank governor says interest rates can go lower from here. >> we cut our interest rates. i think we have room for easing more. the base of this easing will depend on the economic situation. i want to draw your attention to the uk manufacturing pmi for the month of may. that came in at a slight beat, 56.7 versus a reuters poll of

56.5, versus a three-year high of 57.3. maybe a bit of an aberration in april, but it seems uk manufacturing keeping up the momentum in may. hiring is rising. the employment index kale in at came in at 54.1. sterling/dollar is limiting some of its earlier losses, now only down by 0.1%. 1.2876. let's show you what u.s. futures are up to we're still a few hours away from the start of trading in the west. that's the picture. looking positive at this point in time. the s&p 500 seen up by roughly four points. the dow jones could add 27 points. yesterday we saw declines across the board. yet those declines were fairly limited. we still saw the nasdaq logging the seventh consecutive gain when it comes to months. that's the first time sinc

since 2014. as far as europeans are concerned, another record high for the ftse 100, up to 7549. this comes down to the weakness of the pound sterling given the tightening in the polls now favoring mr. corbyn, though he still has a 3 point lag when it comes to theresa may. the xetra dax up by 0.44%. the cac 40 up by 0.70. i want to join your attention angela merkel who are holding a press conference. they have been speaking about the need for greater cooperation, this is important especially following comments from angela merkel after the disastrous g7 meeting in her eyes where she said we can't rely on the u.s. as a strong

partner any longer. shares in sistema have dropped over 40% since rosneft filed a 1$1.9 billion lawsuit against te group. rosneft accuses the firm of asset stripping bashneft. however speaking to cnbc earlier this morning, the systistema ce dismissed the claims as baseless. >> we think that the claim is pretty much baseless. one of the parts of the claim states that the treasury shares that were on the balance of bashneft that were canceled in the amount of rubles is considered damage done to the company, yet canceling treasury stock is an absolute typical transaction that all companies in the world do on the regular basis because basically once the company buys its own stock, it wants to transfer this buyout to shareholders, they can't cancel

the shares. typical corporate transaction. nothing to it. second example, the claim was raised from 100 billion rubles to 170 billion rubles. because of the depreciation of the ruble, which is again how can sistema be responsible for what's happening with the russian ruble. you know, what happens to the ruble cannot be responsibility of private company. so, it consists of those claims. and we believe that we can prove our position in court. >> you say this is about rosneft. let's not personalize it. but many outsiders look at it very much as a battle for eager cetchin and that this is settling old scores still from the battle days of the privatizations. why is it not this? >> i was really not part of any of those deals or rumors. for me it's difficult to comment

on what people say. i can only comment on what i see in the papers. what i see in the papers is something i see from my point of view does not have a legal basis. this is something we'll prove. >> cnbc contacted rosneft for its response to sistema's comments, but we have yet to receive a reply. stagnant revenues spurred a number of mega takeover deals in the specialty takeover sector, but fasagro is growing without a takeover. let's get back out to geoff. >> phosagro has been the story since sanctions were imposed about this question of self reliance. welcome to our cnbc stand. you have been a beneficiary, i

guess, from the sanctions regime. >> i would not say we were benefited, but russian agriculture did benefit. last year we have been able to increase up to 20% our sales of fertilizers to the russian domestic market, which is great. it's growing. it's very strong. i believe it's got a strong future. for us of course that's important. >> of course you do sell internationally as well. france is second only to russia in terms of sales. what did you make of the recent meeting between president putin and mr. macron? >> that's a very tough question. for us, europe is another 30% of all our sales. france is one of the largest agricultural countries. it's very important. i saw a very interesting

dialogue between two interesting presidents. mr. putin, a great, solid person. mr. macron is very vertical. very straight in terms of what he wants. in my mind, as i remember, he was one of the ministers in the previous administration who was against the sanctions. i believe we will see a real negotiation, a real kind of work between russian government and french government in that respect. russia and france have a long history of working together, business relationships. so i believe we'll see a good result out of this. >> irrespective of the fact that the sanctions have not been formally removed, you see their impact as being gradually relaxed because european businesses want to get on with

doing business with phosagro and with russia at large? >> not only just with phosagro, but the whole of russia. look at this forum, it's a bunch of new investors or old investors who came here, ceos of big funds, a lot of representatives of sovereign -- foreign solve esovereign funds. everybody understands russia today is quite stable. in terms of the economy and the market, there's a perception that we will be able to show the growth, the growth of the economy in the future, particularly if it will be easing of monetary policy from central bank which we expect. maybe around interest rates of 6.5%. future inflation is very stable. i believe in that respect, if you look on the numbers, on the

figures, what is russia today, clearly you can figure out it will grow. >> since we last spoke, we have seen a number of deals done between major companies in the seeds and fertilizer space. how is this changing the pricing environment for fertilizer if at all? >> we didn't see any effect on it. basically when we talk about any change, it's consolidation. consolidation gives more pricing discipline on the market. it also gives the kind of healthy breath to the industry when effective or efficient companies work and survive and nonefficient will pass away. this is very good for any economy. >> just the last question on costs. the ruble is quite strong now against the dollar. a lot of costs will be in rubles. what impact is that having on the business? tell us what you think the ruble will do to you.

>> of course we are exporters. 70% of our product is going abroad to almost 100 countries. the rubleal issue is a major issue. we have costs in ruble, but today we have signals from the government from the present administration that they want to change and have a cheaper level, maybe 60, 65 to balance the budget and for many reasons. of course that's today's only vehicle to help to support exports. that's what's important. that's basically a lot of meetings here on this forum is how to facilitate exports from russia. that's where we see our strength. if the central bank will reduce interest rates, of course we will see that this kind of -- the current trade which we see today in russia and particularly

in ruble will disappear. >> we'll have to wait and watch. the central bank governor seems keen to bring rates down. we'll see what happens. andre guryev from phosagro. we will be covering live president putin's planary from midday tomorrow. still many more guests to come from st. petersburg. >> geoff, thank you very much for that. we are bringing you live pictures of george soros's keynote speech from brussels. i want to bring you some key comments of what he's been speaking about. he said that the eu has lost its momentum and needs to be radically reinvented. though he can by in large fairly optimistic, he sees sign of eu resurgence in the election of president macron where the only pro european candidate aftchiev the seeing seemingly impossible.

he says the greatest sources of hope are the bottom up movement of mainly young people like the pulse of europe. let's listen in for a bit. >> especially if the anti-european and afd continues its virtual collapse. the growing momentum may then be strong enough to overcome the biggest obstacle ahead. the danger of banking and migration crisis in italy. i can also see many spontaneous bottom-up issues and significantly they are mainly supported by young people. i have in mind the parts of

europe initiative which started in frankfurt in november and spread to some 120 cities across the continent. the best for britain movement in the united kingdom and the resistance to the peace party in poland and also in hungary. the resistance that the prime minister encountered in hungary must have surprised him as much as it surprised me. he sought to frame his policies as a personal conflict between

the two of us and has made me the target of his unrelenting propaganda campaign. he casts himself in the role of the defender of hungary, hungarian sovereignty, and me as a shady currency speculator who uses his money to flood europe, particularly his native hungary with illegal immigrants as part of a -- of some vague but nefarious plot. that's not who i am. i am the proud founder of the central european university that has, after 26 years, come to rank among the 50 best

universities in the world in social sigh yenciences. i have endowed the university and enabled it to defend its academic freedom not only from the interference from the hungarian government but also from its founder. i have resisted orban's attempt to translate our ideological differences into a personal animosity, and i have succeeded. what lessons have i learned from this experience? first, that defending open societies, it's not enough to rely on the rule of law, you

must also stand up for what you believe in. the university i founded and the organizations that my foundations have supported are doing that. their fate is in the balance, but i'm confident that their determined defense of freedom, both academic freedom and freedom of association will eventually bring the slow moving wheels of justice into motion. second, i have learned that democracy can't be imposed from the outside. it has to be asserted and defended by the people themselves. i'm full of admiration for the

courageous way the hungarian people have resisted the deceptions and corruption of the mafia state that orban has established. i'm encouraged by the energetic way that european institutions have responded to the challenges emanating from poland and hungary. i find the proposal made by germany to use the cohesion funds for enforcement purposes very promising. i can see the revival of the european union gaining more and more ground, but it won't happen by itself.

those who care about the fate of europe will have to get -- get actively involved. i must end with a word of caution. the european union is slow moving and often leads to anonymity to enforce its rules. this is difficult to overcome when two countries, poland and hungary are conspireing to oppose it. but the european union needs new rules to maintain its values. it can be done but it will require resolute action by the

european institutions and the active engagement of civil society. let's get engaged. thank you. >> george soros speaking in brussels about the future of europe and apparently by the looks of things he's hopeful given the rise of some of the youth movement. uk party leaders at the bbc election debate roundly condemned prime minister theresa may for failing to participate at the event. the conservatives opted to deploy home secretary amber rudd instead. sparring with rudd and paul nuttall on economic policies, jeremy corbyn called out nuttall for his claim that raising taxes would cause businesses to leave the country. a new poll found that the labour party slashed the cone serserva lead even further.

that put more pressure pound sterling which has been falling. let's try to show sterling/dollar, 1.2883. though it has limited some declines given the manufacturing pmi earlier on in the session, which was better than expected. we'll be back in two.

president trump is keeping the world in suspense about his plans regarding the paris climate agreement. global leaders and big businesses are looking to see whether he will withdrawal from the landmark deal. tesla ceo and white house adviser elon musk reacted to the news in a series of tweets. he and his team he say have done

all they can in advising the trump administration to remain in the paris agreement. asked what he would do if the president pulled out of the accord, he said he would have no choice but to leave his advisory roles. uber has announced its head of finance is leaving the company. that's despite first quarter losses shrinking compared to the last quarter. revenues rose 18% to 3$3.4 billion. arjun kharpal joins us from the pioneers conference in vienna. what's the buzz in vienna? >> you mentioned uber there. uber is one of the companies investing heavily in driverless cars. the basis of driverless cars is artificial intelligence. we were speaking to the ceo of ascension technologies, he said so many sectors will be impacted by ai and automation, and with that comes the impact of jobs. there's a lot of debate over how

big potential job losses are, and what new jobs may be created. of course that's all in the future, but in the near-term, companies such as facebook, google, amazon and apple are jumping into this space. you have amazon alexa and google assistant. i caught up one of google assistant's key engineer, he is saying they want to come across all devices in this internet of things. that's what we're talking about this morning. >> what a great setting in vienna. thank you very much for that. this is it for this show. i'm carolin roth. "worldwide exchange" is up next.

good morning. sell many may and go away. a new month of trading coming up. washington watch. trump will announce his plans for the paris climate agreement today. corporate america already weighing in. plus uber unveils its latest financials and says its finance chief is leaving. why the company could be on the road to going public. it's thursday, june 1, 2017. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good mornin