ugliest stocks in honor of the world's ugliest dog contest. the winner, martha, a 15-pound neapolitan mastif. >> she's not ugly. she's charming. >> she sees just who she is is i love it. >> let's not body shame dogs. >> thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. >> there are no ugly dogs. >> i was going to ask who you thought might lose or win the ugliest stock contest because you could have made a case for some of those like auto rental names until -- >> until a couple hours ago when the people who shorted those names are in a world of pain today because of some really interesting announcements that we'll goat here in just a minute. >> we'll be covering that in just a little bit. >> welcome to "closing bell. i'm kelly evans of the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griff et stocks are mostly higher on wall

street this is the last week of the month of the quarter of the first half of the year. >> that's true doesn't feel like it. >> later than it's ever been. >> investors are paying close attention to what's going on in washington right now in the next few hours we're told the congressional budget office is expected to release its scoring of the senate health care bill. we will bring you that news as soon as it happens and talk about whether the bill is doomed if it ends up closing too much -- costing too much. >> how many people are dropped from the rolls. >> exactly all the other -- same problems that faced the house bill. >> yes. >> we'll get to that. >> speak being of which, they are trying to pass it before july 4th and president trump is set to meet india's prime minister at this hour to strengthen economic ties between the two nations. what it means for american companies doing business in india is coming up. >> the prime minister is scheduled to arrive there in 30 minutes. is the restaurant recession showing any signs of slowing down we'll take a look at which names in the industry investors should perhaps buy or sell, but we

begin with the breaking news on the indian's prime minister visit to the house today seema? >> reporter: prime minister's motorcade should be arriving here shortly where mode and trump will meet face to face for first time to talk about the economy and defense. the first thing on the agenda is a one-on-one meeting between modi and trump followed by a bilateral meeting, a cocktail reception and working dinner, make mode irk the first foreign head of state to dine at the white house with president trump. perhaps a nod to the important alliance that will be growing between the united states and india. on the agenda in terms of discuss points will be defense, which will likely be a bright spot between the two leaders as they try to coordinate on counterterrorism one area of contention is immigration and hsb visas.

india makes up about 70% of that allotment. that drives 5% of india's gtp. many economists draw a lot of parallels between the two leaders. there's been a strong nationalist pro-business leaders that both believe in the use of social media trump is the most followed leader on twitter with 32 million followers. in second place, prime minister modo with around 30 million. we'll see what they say during the joint statement. we'll get that to you once we get it >> we wonder who will have the more popular around the president of the u.s. india business council also

joins us defense looks like a big priority for the meetings here whamt do y what do you expect in terms of all the deals that will come of this >> i think they approved the set of drones for pakistan-india which was approved the last couple of years. we're looking for a lot of spending on the navy side. a lot of spending on the fighter jet plane side and discussions with f-18 and f-16s to be manufactured in india itself, so i think india plans to invest over a quarter trillion in defense over the next few year, and the last couple of years india has become one of the largest buyers of u.s. defense equipment, roughly $15 billion and i believe this trajectory with the country will continue. >> you know president trump met with a group of ceos yesterday and got a rave review. does that overshadow to some

degree the government of the eyes has with the economic relationship with india? >> it does the government's relationship, we haven't been able to find common ground. both parts of different trading blocs, with the u.s. withdrawing from tpp even our own attempts to negotiate an investment treaty haven't yielded through in nine years. indian is becoming pun of america's largest trading partner so there's a bit more to do. >> reporter: a key component from indian's versapoint of view is that manufacturers make their products in india. a which go apple point until india found a way to do that they will still have to face

hurdles and then ice -- you look at amazon, look at irish and google and the wha tsa pp. i think they are seeing quite a bit of u.s. companies making inroads. the challenges are that india has to create local employment, and that's why they are asking 30% outsourcing which normally the country acquire. believe it's a win-win situation for u.s. companies and india market as well. >> rich, so sectors, which industries will benefit protest -- a -- and i'm vig international investors. >> i always recommend that the governments look for the sectors that the modi government have highlighted.

they have liberallies oil and gas section and they are looking at the broke massive power grid. if you're a company that sells power equipment or related services, you've got a great opportunity out there. you've got to find the right people, the right states, the right buyers, but there's a market to be made. >> and quick will have before we go the -- confiscating a big part of the nation's cash has been a big boon for the administration. how much of an impact has that this on the quiz and the economy? it had 8% and food inflation was almost 18% and all of that has come down to 2% so the common citizen is enjoying the benefit of demonetization and that's important for this government to

bring in as little low corruption as you can as it builds the indian economy. this moves did help the u.s. companies. >> thank you both for joining us today. >> thank you. thank you. and, again, prime minister modi will be arriving at the white house in about 30 minutes so as we begin the final week of the quarter mist and you the first half of the year, david kelly from the global strategist jpmorgan funds today is with us. sarge gill boil and rick santelli joins us from the cme in chicago as well sarge, here we are this has been as we've established time and again a pretty quiet market in terms of volatility, and we begin the week with the vix at its low for the year we're at 976 right now what do you see happening this week and traders get red are.

>> i think we -- we found 244 is with stiff resistant the past couple of days, seven times the discount and when you can spit it out for eachoid and i'm -- now johnwilliams sounded a bit more hawkish than they would this morning and that's going to be highly focused on and this friday we'll get more importantly pce inflation. more than enough going into a holiday weekend for us to focus on and you'll need to stay in your place until 4:00 hon friday to make your play. >> i am starting to think based on market's behavior that the yield curve is going to stay as flat as it is now and maybe get flatter for the next couple of years, even though the bull market conditions and all of that if that happens, does that

heap em -- i do think the yield curve will get flatter because short rates will be pushed relentlessly higher by the federal reserve. it's very hard i think for the yield curve to maintain its current rate if the federal reserve is doing that, and i also think that the fed's move to most balance sheet is important. i think it will keep long rates going up, even if not quite as quakely as shore rates i think conditionses do observing in this. his economy is certainly not overheating, and it could be a very long expansion: >> rick, i'd be interested in your thoughts on that. do you see the flattened yield curve, maybe even an inverted curve as we go forward here for the foreseeable future >> well, i this i it makes

sense, and, yes, many traders on this trading floor, bill, their premiere trade has been 10s to 2s or 30s to 5s and flatteners on and off for last couple of year, and the difference snourks and i go back to sarge if you want to observe what's moving markets, i think you need to pay attention to williams and wellen, but -- and yellen and yu really need a telescope to continue to see what's at stake and i continue to say overseas central banks in europe and japan, along with all the balance sheets of all the central banks have created a distortion in the ruled curve. that doesn't moan we shouldn't look at it the and still try to draw conclusions but it's very difficult to have the same confidence level of a flattening curve we would have had 10 or 12 years ago. the long end of the market could be priced wherever the central banks really want it, but i do agree that at many points when they sell rates have to go up, and finally on what this does toss banks listen

most of the banks now have some short rate whether it's libor or other rate they benchmark. add on a couple hundred basis points and a lot of this floats anyway the financial industry and how loans in a flat curve affect them have changed almost as much as the markets have since the crisis >> and to your point, rick, the financials are up a percent today. >> before we go, the behavior of oil was flagged earlier by art cashin and others as we drop below $43 a barrel the market and oil have recovered since. still amazing that they kind of go hand in hand like this and that the drop continues to have people of more nervous about stocks than excited about purchasing power. >> i mean, oil is okay right here the level is actually $42.75, and it's been peersed a couple of times and keeps recovering above that if it cracks severely to the downside we're looking at 39.50 which would hurt the sectors

what's going on in financials is a stress test. getting close to a percentage out of the financial spouse because we're expected to be paid a dividend or receive a buyback or at least the ability to go there and that's why we're seeing an artificial push into the financial segment this week. that's not going to last you still need to stay in the health care space. this is where the money has been going for one year, five years, ten years and i believer the second half of this year, when the fed gets us into a little bit of a jam which they are probably going to do when they manage the balance sheet and raise the fed funds rate, those are the two areas that you need to defend yourselves even though they are not defensive areas, this is where you need to be. >> if you buy and hold though, you would make some money, wouldn't you, sarge? >> i would do better than i've done which is rotate a fush times. >> we'll leave you to the rotation right now. >> thanks, guys. >> have a good rest of the day love the honesty dow is up 53 points.

crude is back up to 4 about.5. >> facebook is looking to become a major content producer like hulu or netflix. more on that in a minutes. >> and major tie-ups between two tech giants d ancar rental companies. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide

welcome back, facebook is in talk with hollywood studios to become a major content producer. >> in a hurry, too. >> julia boorstin has all the details for news los angeles today. julia? >> reporter: hey, guys netflix and howlu better watch out because facebook execs have been meeting with the studio and talent agencies about creating all sorts of shows for facebook. they have commissioned unscripted shows from budfeed and voxx media and has now pursued more traditionally scripted tv shows. facebook is willing to spend up to $3 million per episode which

is in line with the cost of some shows on amc or netflix this comes as facebook along with google face demands fromsors for brand safety the shows would certainly create more premium add inventory vp of media partnerships nick gruden saying we're focused on episodic shows happening all our partners understand what works across different vertical and topics we're funding these shows directly now but overtime we want to help lots of creators make videos funded through revenue sharing. facebook's been doubling down on video with a dedicated tab in the app and a facebook video app designed for connected tvs, so we'll be looking for facebook's shows to start launching later this summer. guys >> late they are summer. they got to hurry if they are going to get this done. >> they have already started -- they have already started working on some of the shorter form ones withthese digital

video content creators so the lead team isn't as long if you're working with buzzfeed or sox or conde nast. the bigger partner going to the more traditional tv landscape and that will take longer. >> you won't create the net quarterbacks house of cards" or "breaking bad" overnight let's see if this is a good move for facebook bring in steve battalio and ben dunbar from gruber caw sacky is a facebook share herald, and you're not pleased about this move, are you, ben >> hollywood is a completely different monster. people have come into hollywood for a long time an they dump money into it and then, you know, you don't teach success. start going to the parties with leonardo dicaprio and other models we like the idea and you have netflix spending over 6billion

and amazon over 4 million and hulu who already has the connections with the studios and then, you know, who knows what apple is doing but you know they are doing something so it's a tough space to come in at this point and it's very, very different from where facebook has beench >> stich, there was just news that vimmio is pulling off of trying to go this route. how many companies are in pursuit of these eyeballs and the what leverage does facebook have here? >> yeah. pretty minimal, really, pretty minimal because, you know, hollywood has so much content and people just want to keep giving it out, and, you know, facebook is just another player. >> i think. >> that was a reaction i think this is a reaction to what the broadcast networks and the cable networks were doing in may when they were making their presentations to the advertisers in the up front. the message basically was -- is that tv is your safe harbor. if you buy time on youtube or one of these other digital platt forms, there's a chance that your ad will run in an isis video. i'm being serious.

that the type of comparesons, the type of scare tactics they were use. >> one look at unilever today. it announce it had wants more transparency from the likes of google and facebook. admittedly that's as much on performance metrix as anybody else and transparency and knowing where the ads are going is a big part of this. >> user-generated content is not pulling in the type of ad dollars that they were digital content or digital content in video is continuing to grow but not as fast as the pace as it was a year ago and not taking as much for the tv dollars as the tech companies would like, and i think that's the play here is to invest in content that they control, that's advertiser friendly and safe, but it's going to take a big investment. >> yeah. i mean, we agree. >> is that a big fear that they will have to spend too much and not get enough return on their investment >> exactly if they spend $3 million a show, yeah, it sounds like a lot and having a hit show is like

winning the lottery. so many shows that come out that are complete flops and it takes a netflix type investment, amazon type investment and i don't know if facebook wants to focus on that with how well the business is. we think they may be better suited and within their realm is nvr. ahead of the game with most companies and if they can complete platform, they are unique in that space and not fighting a battle with every other company that wants to get into media right now. >> facebook wants to do this avoiding politics, news, nudity and of language and netflix has done a fantastic job of using the buzz of its edgier shows that's often what we've seen from the likes of hbo and showtime and netflix over the year so how will facebook be able to do that if it's going the same route >> it's what attracts creative

people and naming people to streaming services is creative freedom. they can do pet projects and push the boundaries in terms of content, and they probably will do it for less money than they would get otherwise from a conventional broadcaster if they -- if they could pursue an idea that they really want to do did. i mean, when i heard this number, 3 million half an hour, i thought of the old "saturday night live" routine when lorne mikealities went on "saturday night live" and offered to get the beatles back together and held up a check for $3,000 i mean, what are you going to get for 3 million? >> that's not enough. >> i think they will have to overpay for a lot of things that are gambles, really. >> yeah. >> i don't think that big-name players are going to come in at that level. >> ben, we have to go, but final question let's say facebook ends up writing even bigger checks and content appeals to people who want to get in front of this audience is it possible that they will end up spending money that's worthwhile because if they don't get route they are missing had the next wave?

>> i think at the end of the day, it's a gamble, right. they are doing really well in all their other businesses and content is a gamble, you never know what show is going to be the next "house of cards" and it's not analytics and it's art and creative and it's going to be hard for them to know, that and we'll see throughout the end of the day that it is a gamble. >> yes, we will. >> good to see you both. thanks for joining us today. >> good stuff. >> thanks, guys. >> an example of business model creep, right >> just like we've been talking about. >> exactly. >> a lot of that happening today. >> and they all converge in the same spot. let's create television shows, everybody >> 35 minutes to go. it's harder than it looks. into the close the dow is up about that many points, 36 and the s&p up 2 and russell up 4 and nasdaq down 14. >> grubhub shares being sent lower today. >> and later a bull/bear debate on restaurant stocks and buying opportunities that may be created byhe s to-called restaurant recession

welcome back food delivery service grubhub is trading lower with morgan stanley downgrading the stock from equal weight to overweight and trimming its price target from $had 3 to 47. it's trading at 44.5 right now the firm says that growing competition from amazon and other online platforms could pressure grubhub's customer acquisition costs and

profitability. avis budget is higher hon news that the company is working with alphabet on self-driving cars alphabet oats autonomous vehicle unit waymo will rely on avis to service and storage fleet of chrysler's self-driving advance. most of the 600 vehicles will be deployed in part to support a pilot program in phoenix, arizona. >> that should have been the story until this. >> this is our favorite one. hertz is popping big-time on a bloomberg headline that apple is working with hertz to manage a small, and we mean a small fleet. >> about half a dozen. >> autonomous vehicles apple tells cnbc that there is no partnership apple issimply leasing six car from hertz which i love, and lock at the stock, up 13.75%. >> what would happen to hertz stock in it hadn't already been from this announcement this morning? that's a totally different thing, and hi to read that through to understand who was

doing what here, so in the phoenix area where these chrysler advance are are being tested with waymo right now. avis is going to take care of all the nitty-gritty they are going to wash the cars. they are going to spin the tires. >> right. >> store them. >> exactly. >> yeah, yeah. >> so i thought that that was a fascinating side that even if you're successful in the technology aspect of this business, you know, there's a whole other element to it that avis does quite well. >> they are just reading headlines, and avis went up and hertz is going up. >> and they are up a like amount as a matter of fact, right now. >> and the inference is apple is doing the same thing, not quite there. big short interest in these companies, too. >> another big part of this. >> still, if you work for these car companies, you'll be working for the big tech companies some day. that's clearly where all of of this is headed >> eventually they will be starting their own tv show, too. >> streaming them in the car with elon musk's proprietarier is jis. >> time now for the cnbc update

and over to sue herera. >> hi, guys. here's what's happening at this hour, everyone the congressional budget office expects to release its cost for the senate's gop health care plan later this afternoon. it will be published on the cbo's website and cnbc will have it for you the minute it comes out. amtrak naming former delta ceo richard anderson as its president and ceo as they make major repairs at its new york hub. former arizona share of joe arpaio goes on trial today he's in federal court in phoenix facing a criminal content charge for disobeying a judge's order to stop the traffic patrols which targeted immigrants. the trial is expected to last eight days and harry potter fans lined up to take place at london's king cross station as they mark the 29th anniversary of the release of the first book about the boy wizard

author j.k. rowling's first novel "harry potter and the philosopher's stone" was published in june 26, 1997 does not seem people it was 20 years ago. back down to you. >> i remember reading the first few books to my kids when they were young enough. >> i know. >> looking forward to that. >> i'm hear with matt cheslock on the floor of the new york stock exchange okay we're beginning this final week of the quarter of the month, first half of the year what do you anticipate to happen here we talk about window dress and all the things and book squaring that might happen. >> that's all kind of done had the last two weeks and last two fridays very business. lots of portfolio managers have adjusted their positions and their polls of going into summer so this is kind of quiet today is obviously showing that it's real quiet. >> you see that? >> i don't anticipate. >> you know, every time it's

dipped below 10 someone has said drop it below 10 the market has been kind of fragmented today seen a courageous you know, rallies, selloff rallies, and i think that will continue. >> we have the cbo scoring of the senate health care bill. we have the announcement from the fed on which banks will be able to, you know, provide dividends and buybacks and things like that those are the kinds of things that you would imagine could have an impact on market here, right? >> and they will have an impact specifically for individual stocks because they are going to be so hyper focused and that's going to be the problem that you'll probably misread a headline and you'll see a reaction a you talked about hertz a little while ago just the mere fact that they are associating with apple in some capacity you get a 13% move that's what happens when you have a slow market you have to be very careful and very nim sglble. very volatile at some point. kell >> dow up 39 points as we head to close with half an hour to go s&p hanging on to a gain of 3.

what's next for the company that's supplying panels that i -- that authorities say contributed to a deadly high rise fire in london? stay with us whoooo. you're searching for something. like the perfect deal... ...on the perfect hotel. so wouldn't it be perfect if there was a single site where you could find the right hotel for you at the best price? there is. because tripadvisor now compares prices from over 200 booking sites... ...to save you up to 30%... ...on the hotel you want. trust this bird's words. tripadvisor. the latest reviews. the lowest prices.

welcome back iconic shares under pressure in the fallout from london's deadly friend fell tower fire which killed 79 people morgan brennan has the latest on this story morgan >> reporter: that's right. this is on the heels of the report from the arconic supplied flammable panels to the building the company is saying while we published general usage guide lines, regulations and codes vary but country and need to be determined by the local building code experts now the metals manufacturer formerly known as alcoa announcing its discontinuing sale of those panels investigators believe the cladding as well as the insulation not made by arconic

contributed to the quick spread of that deadly fire at london's grenfell tower dozens of a digital residential high rises are confirmed to use this type of cladding, and officials are still assessing hundreds more. so all of this amid the company searching for a new permanent ceo, as it moves past a heated proxy fight with the top shareholder elliott management this situation right now, a lot of questions that still have not been answered. given the pr implications, that could make it much harder. if you take a look at shares, they are off the lows of the day but still down 5.5%. we've seep some pretty heavy trading volume here. guys >> all right morgan, thank you. let's talk more about how this tragic story may affect the company that was spun off, part of the splitup of alcoa. bring in chris owen from longbo research loss, we've got to acknowledge the loss of life other it's just horrible, but we need to think about the financials

here now as well when you consider the liability, the number of buildings that may still be out there with this, you know, what do you foresee for the future of arconic in terms of liability here? >> difficult to tell not a whole lot of answers out there. the building and construction segment represents about $1 billion for arconic's business of which the cladding business represents roughly 20%, so we're talking about a pretty small business as it relates to arconic, maybe 200 million to 300 million in terms of annual revenues so it's 2% to 3%. the top line is not as big of a factor right now for arconic what we're waiting to see is how the liabilities play out so i guess it's still a waiting game. >> just reading this reuters says six e-mails sent by and to a sales manager raise questions about why they

supplied this combustible cladding despite public warning that these panels were a fire risk for tall buildings, i believe over ten meters in height. >> there's laxed regulations in the uk. >> forget the uk regulation for a second why would the company sell a product it knew shouldn'tin used in buildings over ten meters in height >> that i cannot answer for you right now. >> and that goes beyond the numbers you were just citing in terms of liability when you considered the percentage of the revenue, that kind of business line represents to their bottom line you can't even go behind that to guess what kind of liability they are going to have because of the possibility that they knew that they were selling a flammable cladding there for these buildings, right >> exactly right, and that's what's going to keep investors away from this story, at least over the near term is the

negative pr associated with this program rather than estimates needing to come down. >> chris, we understand they are still trying to figure out to what degree the insulation played a role in this. if arconic is to accept the blame, should they accept the responsibility for placing these materials in other tall buildings, to? if they are aware this is on buildings more than ten meters in height, they should change it, correct? >> this metal has never been approved for use, so that is an issue. i can't answer in terms of how the lawyers will look at it or how the heels will play out but it's something that's going to be a risk for the foreseeable future >> you think about the evacuations that they have forced now on some of the high rises where the cladding is used. >> and the uk is paying families some amount, but, again, i'm sure they will be looking to other contributors especially if they were at fault here. let me bottom line this with you. does this call into question

arconic as an ongoing concern or not? >> i think arconic has been caught up in a series of important events weakness in automotive and problems with the aerospace business and now you odd this to it, so if you add up all the negatives that starts to weigh in on investor confidence but this issue is still a pretty big unknown. >> chris owen, thank you, appreciate it. >> thanks for joining us. >> 19 minutes left in the trading session with the dow down -- excuse me, up 36 points. had a pretty good real on the open up more than 110 points and then it just evaporated and now we're back up 35 the most infamous man in the pharmaceutical industry, that would be martin shkreli back in federal court today. we go live to brooklyn for the latest on that as they try to put a jury together. >> and president trump was elected in part promising to bring back manufacturing jobs, but there's another sector facing more dramatic job losses

that's not getting that much ree ntion and it could bfar mo devtating to the economy. that's still ahead

hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades

with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. today's first day of jury selection in u.s. versus martin shkreli.

that's going on in brooklyn federal court right now. that's where we find our meg terrell covering this case of this interesting pharma executive >> reporter: it's day one of martin shkreli's fraud trial who arrived here in brooklyn along with his legal team. he was arrested in 2015 and been charged with eight sounds of securities fraud, conspiracy to commit security fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud and has plett not guilty to all of those charges none of those are what made him famous he's best known forration the price of a decades old medicine used to treat parasitic infections by 5,000%, and that really is causing jury selection to be a little bit slow today. they have already dismissed more than 90 people trying to find a jury here. it will be potentially a six-week long trial so presumably some people have conflicts going on this summer but we're also learning that some people are coming in with knowledge of martin shkreli and

some opinions they say wouldn't allow them to evaluate facts of the case fairly. some people say, quote, i think he's an evil man and i don't think he can be fair that's from a juror who is dismissed. two people thought he erased the epipen and another person says they have total disdain for the man and one person was dismissed for bias in the opposite direction saying they would never convict him, guys. we'll potentially hear opening arguments tomorrow and we've got so see the jury get seated first and so far a bit slow going. bill and kelly >> probably have to find a place that never heart of martin shkreli. i don't know where that is. >> i don't think you have to go far out of new york for that honestly. >> to meg's point about how they thought he was maybe responsible for the epipen. >> that's a point. that's so important to so many people around the country, indeed around the world, i would think they would have paid attention to that, but you're right, there's a misunderstanding. >> hand who is responsible meg, have they talked at all moving this trial, or are we

well past that >> no, they haven't talked about moving the trial at all. brought in another trial of 50 people to try to get to a panel of 40 to whittle down into 12 so it sounds like they are forging ahead here in brooklyn. >> i'm just glad i wasn't called stuck on a jury. what were you going to say >> i would love to serve of on a jury. >> dying to serve of on a journey. >> i'm a journalist and can never get past -- >> i did grand jury duty that's different. >> that's a commitment. >> thank you, meg. 13 minutes to go into the close. your dow is taking on a 37-point gain. >> preparing for earnings release in restaurant stocks and how to place an order on some of the beaten downs stocks. that's coming up

(baby crying) ♪ fly ♪ me to the moon (elegant music) ♪ and let me play (bell rings) won't replace the full value of your totaled new car. the guy says you picked the wrong insurance plan. no, i picked the wrong insurance company. with liberty mutual new car replacement™, you won't have to worry about replacing your car because you'll get the full value back including depreciation. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today.

liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance.

darden restaurants up nearly

24% this year. announced its earnings before the bell tomorrow. >> that's an impressive move given the restaurant recession we're talking about. >> absolutely it is. >> talking about a lot of stocks under pressure are stocks like darden a buy or sell and joining you go for today's debate, our guests steven, darden aside, who do you like in this debate or with a why? >> we published our picks. we like dave & buster's, a company seeing 20% of its sales from the entertainment business, the arcade sector and cheesecake factor has stumbled a lot lately but that's pre-announced mostly due to the weather and to a weak start to the summer movie season, but beyond that, a lot of markets comps remain positive a name since the end of the recession has outperformed the sector we look for it to pick itself up in the next few months.

>> peter, you're the bear here, your analysis is that it sounds like the retail industry is rather just too many restaurants out there relative to the demand for eating out right now, right? >> yeah. i would agrowth. i mean, i think the demand for dining out of the home has really not rebounded since the end of the recession, and we continue to add more and more restaurants on top of it, so demand is fairly weak. supply continues to increase, and in addition consumers are just opting more and more to eat at home so i think you just have to be mindful of how much you pay for some of these names that really require you to come to the restaurants to enjoy the experience, so that's -- that's our positioning on it. it feels, you know, we were more bullish on darden. we did downgrade the last quarter. >> okay. >> stephen, let me address, you know, the gorilla here in the room i think i mixed metaphors. amazon, there was a note saying

that it thinks the restaurant industry is the next $1.5 trillion opportunity for amazon. you saw the grubhub downgrade as well is amazon another threat here. >> we don't see it as an immediate threat but instead as an opportunity for restaurants to address the need for convenience. we look at a leading market research group found that delivery sales are up 2% drive-there you seals up 3%. this is where the restaurants have to meet the consumer's needs and they have to be nimble. >> what do you think on that, peter? >> agreed. i think they have got to be nimble they have got to reach the consumer at home i think mobile order and pay is extremely important and delivery is going to be another extremely important aspect for the restaurants. again, you have to be mindful for what you're paying for on the restaurants. some of the valuations have continued to go up, up and up. >> i'm thinking about domino's pizza which has been an incredible story, peter, and its technology has been a driver of

that they have embraced it, and are they a model for the rest of the industry >> i -- i think they -- they clearly are are. i mean, they are clearly doing something right when you're driving hoy single digits and double digit same-store sales on top of unigrow and not everybody can be a domino's. not everybody has the same industry backdrop. >> look at that charm. up 37% year to date. i'll put them up against any big-cap tech stop. they are in the delivery space which is now the place to be >> exactly. >> just cracks me up >> kudos to them. >> steven, peter, thank you. >> thanks, guys. >> your thoughts on that okay tomorrow is the last day you can bid in the charity that -- >> that's monday already. >> this is monday, and it -- the bidding ends tomorrow. >> wow. >> and i know what you folks are doing. it's like you're sitting at sotheby's and you're waiting for the auctioneer to say going once, going twice and then you'll get your paddle in.

>> i'm worried they are not there. >> i'll reiterate two things really quickly one, this is not just about you being able to come down here to the new york stock exchange and meet kelly and me and have drinks with us and it's about this charity and if but go and read about why and how the lulu an leero fund was created by our friends kevin and marina, i defy you not to want to make a donation. >> and to that point, you are watching this at 10 grand, no matter what. >> if we get to five digits tomorrow in the bidding, i will kick in 10,000 of my own money. >> we can see. >> just went to 82,5 start writing that czechoslovakia. >> i'm more than happy to because it's an incredibly worthy cause. >> tomorrow at 4:45 is when the bidding closes, and i know what you're doing out there, you're lying and waiting. we'll come back with the closing countdown with the dow up 26

points. >> after the bell, the congressional budget office report on the senate health care bill is out. that score will really change the outcome, or is weakerton too std tched in the politics ineaofhe poll i? you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide so if you're on medicare or will be soon, you may want more than parts a and b here's why. medicare only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. you might want to consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like any medicare supplement insurance plan, these help pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and, these plans let you choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. you could stay with the doctor or specialist you trust... or go with someone new.

you're not stuck in a network... because there aren't any. so don't wait. call now to request your free decision guide and find the aarp medicare supplement plan that works for you. there's a range to choose from, depending on your needs and your budget. rates are competitive. and they're the only plans of their kind endorsed by aarp. like any of these types of plans, they let you apply whenever you want. there's no enrollment window... no waiting to apply. so call now. remember, medicare supplement plans help cover some of what medicare doesn't pay. you'll be able to choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. whether you're on medicare now or turning 65 soon, it's a good time to get your ducks in a row.

duck: quack! call to request your free decision guide now. because the time to think about tomorrow is today. (large boat honking) ♪ i'm living that yacht life life life life ♪ top speed fifty knots life ♪ on the caribbean seas ♪ it's a champagne and models potpourri ♪ on my yacht made of cuban mahogany ♪ gany, gany, gany ♪ watch this look at this we're now up 12,5 on the bidding. thank you.

i mean, i'm not trying to make light of those earlier bids that were for less than $10,000, but that is -- that's sensational, and now we're at 13,5 so the bidding continues. it the goes until tomorrow at 4:45, and, yes, i'm more than happy to write that check for $10,000 to add to the total to the lulu and leo fund. very quickly, the dow up 22 points as we begin the final week of the quarter. and the first half of the year in what has been a very, very stable market. look at that, bob pisani that looks a lot like what has gone on this year so far, right? >> did have a lip dip. there was oil dropped earlier in the day, an i think there was a little concern about the supreme court allowing some aspects of the trump travel ban to comein about the impact you saw some of the airlines come down and general impact on that, but overall this is one of those days i want to remind everyone. we're only 12 or 13 points from another historic high on the s&p, so i know it's not terribly exciting, but we keep greepg up towards it your bid just popped to 13,5.

>> i understand, and we're thrilled keep it coming it goes until 4:45 p.m. eastern time tomorrow, and we'll see who wins that bid there. thank you, bob. >> again, thank you for those bids still coming in the dow up 14. stay tuned for the second hour of "closing bell" with kelly evans and company. see you tomorrow, kell thank you, bill. thank everybody for those kids which are incredible welcome to "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. here's how we're fir inning up the day on wall street the dow with a gain of only 16 points a big change at the opening eke out 2 is,411 the s&p 500 up less than a point. we'll keep an eye on everything to make sure it doesn't shake out differently will the russell 2000 small caps up a little less than two points to 1416 and the nasdaq composite shedding more than a quarter

percent today ending at 6247 and the transports, by the way, up a nice 53 points oil moved higher but fell below 43 bucks and that took wind out of the market earlier today. we're expecting the congressional budget office's revised score of the health care bill bringing that to you as soon as it comes out joining me on the panel, cnbc senior market men tator michael santoli and sara hunt and joining us is managing and portfolio director at smee capital management a lot of news for this market to digest and a lot of stories we need to talk about in terms of the alphabet deal with avis. nestle, a big activist stake by dan lobe a big influence with the big-cap tech players. >> today it's what looked like a bit of a scary downside turn in

the very big tech stocks very strong open and then all the biggest names in the nasdaq were down 1% by the end of the day, for no particular reason just like they are off than 1% i don't think the headlines is driving that, but after the stocks have run so much, what's left for them to go on and disrupt and try to make a play in is the big hard stuff >> well, we're about to close out the first half of the year so unless you take those gains and multiply them by two or simply think they can hold these levels. >> nothing that says this can't happen but mostly today was about the flows from one part of the market to another. the entire market found its footing because banks were up and energy was okay and it basically finds an eke lib yum by the end of the day. >> i see that b.p. and united health, health care space absolutely on a tear how important is this c bor o score to come out to how the investments continue to do >> the idea of getting a bill pass and the uncertain out of

the way is a very big deal the congressional budget office is part of that but it's getting together to help things come out. that's helped the health care sector so far this year. >> what about you, cole? >> what's the encore for what people have been excited about in the interim the voting mag sheen has been in the tech names or dan putting couple of high points on a high multiple staple look at what buffet's underlings were doing and announced this morning which is that store capital, a retail reit is catching a bid into michael's point and we're seeing a movement of money that hasn't had a whole lot of excitement today and what's going to be going on five years from now is the biggest thing people should be paying attention to. >> it's hard to know unless you have any great insight there. >> just stay away from excitement, kell el. that's a good long-term guide. where's the excitement today the excitement sits in what michael pointed out. can you get higher multiples or

what if business is not like people expected. for example, if autonomous cars aren't here in ten years, they are here in 20, there's quite a repricing that goes on in this market or going to marbles or other very cool hip fly and trendy things. >> all right president trump has been sitting down with the prime minister of india in the oval office just a couple moments ago of course, ceos met with modi last night as well let's take a listen. >> prime minister of india who has been such a great prime minister i've been speaking with him and reading about you, and you have done a great job economically india is doing very well and in so many other ways so i would like to congratulate you i would like to congratulate you very much. >> thank, thank you.

[ speaking foreign language >> that's prime minister narendra modi meeting with president trump and they will be joining each other for dinner later on india's been pretty exciting lately i don't know if that makes you guys want to stay away from it, but if you think about it the two biggest populations, can you either pick china for india's sake or india foals like it's got so much raw potential, you know, even though it's going to be a bumpy ride as though move towards development, right. >> >> that's not to say that modi hasn't done good things or what they have going on can't be transformative, but the difference is look at the incomes. how will you get incomes to go

much higher than sub10,000 per capita in comparison, you know, the developed world has beautifully high incomes, and yet people are very dowor about how they can profitably make money off of that here in our case make money, people borrowing money, call it the 50 n.o.w. to 60,000 median incomes is really attractive and something not going on today or people don't think could be anything meaningful to capital returns the next couple of years. >> by the way, one thing i didn't realize about india a lot is nat gas power, in terms of their automobile fleet. that's been the story. the rise of that look at the front page of "the journal" where it talks about how plastics have had a boon because of the fracking revolution and all of of this played how the in the last seven years. i don't know if bp played out for you in that. >> they definitely have their share of natural gas, and if you look across europe there's a lot more lpg in the auto fleet than you see in other countries

because they had much higher taxes and have much -- they had a float that was already -- they already had had the infrastructure there so that really helped them do that. >> yeah. >> there is that sense that commit like india to some degree leapfrog as they get richer and develop more and are incorporating this stuff at a faster pace whether it's mobile or something else. the question has been how difficult it's been to break in and how it becomes a significant part of the business, a prominent example with many others and figures prominently in the whole discussion about a level playing field with trade. >> going back to crude, for example, wti spent $43 per gallon earlier and that's part of why we saw the market turn negative we realize how much of the industry relies on a healthy output market but what price do we need to drop to for that to be in put in peril here?

>> in terms of where u.s. production trails off, people are looking at 40 which is not that far away right now. on the other hand, you know, they have rejiggered balance sheets the players in the u.s. are better able to withstand things in terms of, you know, financial wherewithal than they were a year and a half ago and it might be this situation where they will rr on the side of producing as much as they are right now. i think the bigger question is does it infect the broader markets. so far, no, because the credit markets at this point have not broadly been impact by this decline in crude. >> some of the names trading at all-time highs mentioned how the transports were doing today index was up 53 and fed with exwas trading at all-time highs and completely separately medical names, quest diagnostics and facebook earlier and some of the restaurant names mcdonald's, yum brands. >> it's a smattering. >> and that's been the rule that it's been kind afternoon mix of the stead and the stuff surging

just lately. you know, it's hard to really infer a lot economically from that except saying fedex being where it is. a lot of the parts of the market are in the downturn of the macro data i do think that that's the relationship to watch right now. >> i know we were talking company specific, but it should be maybe a relief for people the economic surprise index peaks after president trump's election in january we were near all-time highs. it's going -- maybe that's a good thing it means the surprises -- either they surprise on the upside or things are really pretty grim down there, and if you look at job and wage numbers it doesn't feel like that. >> no, and i think that some of that data, to your point, will reverse itself and i think the market has shrugged off of it being bad so now it's a question is bad news good news and then you have to try to figure out what the fed reaction function to some that have news is and whether or not people are now thinking that maybe the fed

backs off and maybe that's been a positive i think that there's a number of ways to look at this lower oil prices great for airports and transports and costs are coming down and what's that break even number that starts to move from 50 to 40 to 38 and a lot of those things are change and there's a benefit, you know, there's a blues and minus for a lot of these folks. >> great numbers opening before the open today. >> that's been the area that's been carrying you to some degree. >> you think that's a relief rally? >> i don't want to use the word bailout. rescue, propup. >> uneventful resolution of banks is bullish both went spain a couple of would exago and now italy. >> and also the german -- the german economic data were very good today, the ifo. >> good point. >> i was going to say also in terms of the nasdaq, been a long time since we've had any dish can't report status earlier, but for anything like a 5% correction. >> yes. >> nowadays, it's huge news if we have a 1% correction on

anything. >> that's kind of the point you're making. >> it's been an unusually quiet climb and historically, look, it should get jumpier than it has been, but when you've had a first half that's been this uneventful and calm on the way up, you usually don't get blind syded by something nasty on the second half. there's exception to that rule where in late summer you did have a nasty shock and were you down 15% and there's no rules that always obeyed here but it does seem if quiet markets are not inherently bearish or inviting doom. >> they say never short a dull market. >> that's true. >> speaking of dull. that's the companies that you like any specifics here as we head into the second half >> great question. the dislocation -- you guys were talking about the energy market. for bert or worse we haven't found it the balance sheets are not very good in the arena. in comparison, we're talking about -- talked about it in the open market is the existence of retail in the future sands

amazon bruce burkewicz is staking his career on sears and the family is talking about taking nordstrom's private and buffet's underlings with a reit. >> it's not exposed to apparel per se exposed to other types of retailers. >> why are we going to leave our house to do anything in the future is the question being requested, so to follow up on that think about it -- think about it from the standpoint of why are those savvy buyers that are very well respected people willing to go out and try to prove the market wrong in an environment where everyone is in love with the people that fundamentally disagree with them >> all right i like it, the contrarians, and i'm not going to leave my house if i can help it maybe the park, maybe the mark. >> you'll see me at mcdonald's and the mall i've got kids. >> glad you get out, cole. thanks for joining us. really appreciate it. up next, let's talk about

the cost of health care. the congressional budget office could score the senate's health care bill at any moment. will the bill's costs matter when it comes to getting it through the senate and is the through the senate and is the decline in retail jobs a thray's always been different. decline in retail jobs a in the coal mine for the workforce ? that's next on cnbc, first in business worldwide remote moisture sensors use a reliable network to tell them when and where to water. so that farmers like ray can compete in big ways. china. oh ... he got there. that's the power of and. (b♪by crying) minutes old. ♪ a baby's skin is never more delicate.

♪ what do hospitals use to wash and protect it? ♪ johnson's® the number 1 choices in hospitals.

welcome back the cbo is set to release its score on the senate health care bill any moment -- minute she said now former acting administrator for the centers to have medicare and medicaid services and president of ceo of goodman public policy research joins us as well. why the cbo score, why is it so important to this process? john, what's your opinion on that right now >> over on the house side they got a terrible score, and i'm afraid they are going to get a terrible score over here on the senate side and part of the reason is they are taking $1 trillion out of health care and using it to lower taxes for pay lot of rich people and a lot of special interests that gave us obamacare. a lot of those folks weren't even asking for a tax cut. so -- so i think if they get a really bad score a lot of senators are going to rethink

this plan. >> i thought that the score was better than expected in some regard, john i mean, it's all -- not likes pectations really matter it's fundamentally what the bil is going to do. >> i think millions of people will be uninsured and the -- and the exchange itself, the obama exchanges are not really change very much. they tinker a bit with the credit to encourage people to buy insurance and tinker with the penalty if you don't buy insurance but obamacare pretty much stays in place under the republican plan, and we just take a lot of money out of health care and give it to people who are not in health care. >> so you would like to see more done to repeal obamacare >> donald trump promised to reform the system. he promise that had health care would be better and cheaper and we wouldn't leave anybody behind and the republicans have not been focused on doing that you know, obamacare has so many problems you would think fixing

it would be almost easy, but republicans have not been focused on how to fix all of obamacare's problems. >> andy, what about you? i mean, i guess the overarching question that we're asking you here is how much does the cbo report matter to the passage of this bill? do you specifically, what do you think is the most important figure thattells us how this goes if there is one important to the outcome >> i think mitch mcconnell has two problems that will be exacerbated by this score. one of them john pointed out which is that he has some moderates or states that have expanded medicaid, they done want to see the coverage go down and we'll see coverage go down because he's got other as far as he needs to worry about who were pretty unhappy because the aca is largely being left intact structurally and not much is

being done to reduce premiums. for most people on the exchange their deductibles are expected to double and go over to $6,000 based on the plan going forward. they will probably be giving him more grief. >> if he's going to get more grief do you actually think the score itself is going to change the prospect right now you do hear say a lot of people who lose coverage they will categorize it as a choice to forgo coverage and they are trying to massage whether there's true medicaid losses and all the other stuff so how do you think it will affect the ultimate vote? >> once the numbs are in black and white, the food fight dies down a little bit. the cbo numbers i think will be important. it's hard to put lipstick on

this pig, you know, from a couple xhengs dimensions it's hard to say people are choosing not to have coverage when you are taking the deductibles up and doubling them and for people over 50 you're adding $5,000 to their premium that's not really a choice and something people don't have to report you'll either have to sutservices or people so it's tough to spin this, but i think this might put them in an even tougher spot than they are right now. >> enjoy them there. alphabet and avis are joining forces on self-driving cars while apple says it will lease cars from hertz for testing. so will more tech companies start partnering with companies in the auto industry that's coming up but first, spacex launching not one but two rockets over the weekend and successfully landing

them both. our fast take on why that's so important for company's future when we come back. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay

and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call today to request a free decision guide to help you better understand what medicare is all about and which aarp medicare supplement plan works best for you. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. there's a range of plans to choose from, too, and they all travel with you anywhere in the country. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. ♪ call today. remember, medicare supplement insurance helps cover some of what medicare doesn't pay. expenses that could really add up.

these kinds of plans could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. you'll be able to choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. and there are virtually no referrals needed. so don't wait. with all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. call now to request your free decision guide. this easy-to-understand guide will answer some of your questions and help you find the aarp medicare supplement plan that's right for you. the cbo -- welcome back. the congressional budget office has scored the revised version of the senate health care bill and that's how the dow finished today, up 15 points. more details for us in

washington >> reporter: hi, kelly, this cbo is saying the senate version of the health care bill will result in 22 million more people being uninsured in ten years than would be uninsured under current law. that's only marginally better than the house version of the bill which had found that 23 million more people would be uninsured by 2026 compared to current law. the senate version of the bill, however, sees a greater reduction in the deficit, $321 billion. that's how much the deficit would be lowered if the senate version of the bill was passed that's better than the house version of the bill in which only $119 billion in deficit reduction were found now, this is a very important score because many senators have been seeing what the senators

would be thinking. five are currently against and several more are on the fence, including senator susan collins of maine senator mitch mcconnell said this bill would stabilize insurance markets and give states tools to lower premiums and give americans more control of their health insurance. we'll keep digging through these numbers and bring you more as we have it t. >> just reiterate that part about -- you said 22 million will lose insurance by 2026. 23 million was the latest house version and then the budget deficit cuts would be nearly twice -- more than twice as large in deficit reduction. >> thank you fornow. we're bringing back our guests andy slavik and john goodman andy, i'll begin with you. i imagine you're not happy but as a policy matter do you think this gives the conservatives

perhaps some reason to support the legislation because of the budget deficit cuts? >> here's what's going to happen next it's important that everyone understands that what just got scored is not the final bill you should look at that $322 billion not as deficit savings but instead as money that leader mcconnell will have to spend to try to buy the remaining votes there's five holdouts you describe there may be another five or six horse others, and what he is going to do is essentially put forward a series of amendments that will probably spend that -- and if he gets the votes my suspicion is they will actually have a vote with the amendments but before they have a final bill and final score just like the house did. >> john, do you think he's right about that >> i don't think there's a voter 1 in 1,000 that cares one whip

what,does to the deficit what people care about is the premium and access to doctors and hospitals and facilities they care about their deductible and care about losing their health insurance all together. those are the real issues and it's devastating if millions of people are going to lose their insurance. >> andy, you already are hearing a lot commentary, people trying to downplay the reliability of the cbo scores that's been a theme since the house version of this, so essentially does this new estimate coming in roughly close in terms of the people potentially left uninsured, coming close to the health bill, change the sort of voting landscape much >> i can so, and i don't think it would have been matter if the number was 16 million or 18 million or 22 million. this is a president who came in and promised that nobody would lose coverage. we should be moving in the direction where people are gaining coverage that's good for everybody. that's good for the markets, good for the economy and good

for american families, my opinion would be no different going forward >> john, what would it take to get the conservatives on board at this point? >> what the republicans need to desperately do, doesn't matter whether they are conservative or moderate, they need to do things is to reform the health care system all they are doing is repealing parts of obamacare that's not all that donald trump promised donald trump promised reform, a we're not getting reform we didn't get it in the house and not getting it in the senate they are not even focused on reform. >> what do you mean by reform? >> i mean to do something to bring premiums down, make the deductibles smaller and health insurance cheaper? >> such as. >> the race to the bottom. well, what they need is they need to stop the group market from dumping thousands and thousands of sick, costly patients on the individual market the individual market is very small, and it can't take all

those people so we need, you know, come signed of premium take -- come sign a premium for the individual market. >> you're that you canning about taxing employer plans which cover the vast majority of americans to cover the cost of the individual market. >> a small premium tax, 1% to 2% to cover the cost those employer plans that are being send to the individual market when the workers get too sick to work and they are dumping those costs of course, the other thing that republicanss need to do is extend the tax credit to the place of work. let people get through their job's health insurance john, the senate plan does offer, at least the revised version i believe the cbo scored it offers a different type of incentive. instead of a penalty in terms of

attacks for not having individual coverage, they will make it such that if you don't have it for any given month, you can't get coverage for a six-month waiting period is that a better incentive to get people into the program, to bring the premiums down, like you mentioned? >> that's incentive for everybody who is healthy to stay uninsured until you get sick right now there's only an annual sign-up period anyway, so right now people have to wait ten months anyway. so no. people cannot be allowed to game the system if someone stays uninsured for several years, gets sick and wants to enter the market, they need to pate full penalty for doing that. >> all right gentlemen, we appreciate you staying with us here as that number came out. john goodman, andy slavitt that cbo report now available. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> here's what's happening the city of st. louis and the missouri civil war museum have reached a set-in to remove the confederate monument in federal

reserve park the monument will be kept in storage until they find a place to put it on display. britain's prince charles and his wife camilla visiting manchester arena a month after a deadly terror attack they met with the april reena staff first on the scene immediately after the concert bombing. cleanup is under way in parts of central michigan of a three days of record rainfall. a state of emergency has been declared, clearing the way for state money to help in the rebuilding efforts. >> and on a light note, oscar meyer is expanding its wiener fleet adding the wiener cycle and the wroener drone. this, it says, is to ensure they will try the new hot dog with no artificial preservatives or nitrates in their meal >> which big tech company is going to partner with them >> you never know.

>> sounds like they are doing fine with their own. >> thanks, kell. >> the job market is near full employment, but retail jobs are disappearing at a fast clip. we'll discuss whether that's a red flag for just retail or for the work force and harry potter turns 20 today we'll take a look at the eye popping number that the transhas culled in. that's next on "closing bell."

hitting the road and fueling up for less. the companies positioned t

welcome back kind of a mixed bag on wall street today the dow did close up 15 points to 21,409 s&p up less than 'point to 2439 and the russell up is.5 points nasdaq down 18 today about, a quarter percent drop there 6247 now, is the popularity of online shopping continues to grow, a crisis over displaced retail workers could be brewing nbc's chuck todd outlined what he said could be the next big political problem yesterday on "meet the press. >> the number of people working in retail has dropped. even as the economy has been recovering in the two years of 2014 and 2016 the unemployment rate fell from 6.2 to 4.9% despite this, the number of people working in retail sales declined during that same period of time. let me emphasize

more people employed overall and fewer people working in retail jobs politicians spend a lot of time talking about disappearing manufacturing and coal jocks, but the great retail displacement has been largely ignored, and retail actually employs millions more than the coal industry. 4.5 million compared to 76,000 anybody see a press conference about the lost of retail jobs recently plus people from all races and backgrounds work in retail retail employees look a lot like the country as a whole and they come from all over the country. retail isn't regional like coal, appalachia or the rustbelt loss of retail jobs is on the verge of a crisis point making it a hot but-to-be point in politics top ten states are the biggest states in the country. 2.4 million votes and 246 electoral votes. enough of those jobs disappear, expect the next retail job displacement to become a major

growing issue in 2018 and 2020. >> i don't know. perhaps the president goes more after jeff bezos anthony chance from chase where he's the chief economist a clear narrative about the idea that manufacturing jobs are almost a commodity and china sort of nefariously took those or mexico, name it the same phenomenon is not playing out across retail. do you think it should >> well, when you look at retail you can slice that in many different ways if you look at retail trade, for example, you've created over $1 million since the trough of the recession in 2009 and if you narrow it down to general merchandise stores from october 6 ever 2016, we've lost 84,000, but if you go all the way back to the recession of june of 2009, the bottom, almost created 134,500 jobs, but reason why you're losing these jobs is because sales activity is much lower. sales activity and the latest retail sales report was down 1%. down .2 of 1% year over year so

any time you have slow economic growth you're going to lose jocks, but guess what, kelly this is one of the best times, kelly, believe it or not by the way it's 6.6 people unemployed i have people in my family that are in retail so i don't like to see one retail job disappear, but if it is going to disappear it's a tight labor market that those skills canned be transferred. >> it reminds me a little bit during the '90s expansion when you had a constant restructuring. a lot of old companies covering jobs i did a cover story on the disappearing secretary so -- because of voice mail, and not just, that dataentry a lot of these jobs went away. i think it the difference in retail perhaps is that it's coming along with lots of empty

malls. it's coming along with a lot of hollowed out retail space in every town in america. that's not going to be overlooked politically. >> i think people are talking about this. >> yeah. >> they are absolutely seeing what's going on, and the question becomes do we start to blame jeff bezos, anthony chan, for this happening because he's been the catalyst for a lot of it clearly. >> creative destruction is what creates progress which increases productivity and what ultimately creates wealth it's very painful. at the turn of the century close to 80% of the people were working on farms today it's in the very super low single digits but the world is not over we don't want to see any jobs disappear. it's very painful, but it's part of the evolutionary process when some industries or some companies find a way to deliver the same services in a more efficient manner, we shouldn't stop progress. >> i also wonder how many of the people of in total work at amazon wear houses, michael. >> definitely not a one-for-one

replacement. i hear radio ads for amazon hiring for their warehouses and distribution centers and saying flexible work hours and all this kind of thing. i think, you know, you kind of touched on this, kell de, when you said manufacturing jobs, that nostalgia built up around manufacturing and mining jobs as being tickets to the middle class. you don't have that around rell tail they view retail jobs as a stepping stone perhaps for a lot of people so maybe that's why the political conversation is different around it. >> that's an important point, not necessarily something i want to the do for 30 years. >> and it can't be one-for-one because that's definition of improved efficiency. if it was one-for-one we wouldn't have any efficiency improvement. >> avis budget announced a deal with alphabet and apple says it plans to lease six cars from hertz for autonomous vehicle testing. what those relationships reveal about the future of self-driving cars next and how would you like to tour the set here at the new york stock exchange and have a

drink with whee and my co-anchor bill griff et. a chance to bid on just that look at this we've up over 22,000 that's almost a quadrupling from last hour. we thank you from the bottom of our hearts bill is putting in another 10k and there will be a few more sweeteners thrown in as you guys probably know and it's all for a very, very good cause. learn all the details and get to we'll be right back. you always pay your insurance on time. tap one little bumper, and up go your rates. what good is having insurance if you get punished for using it?

news flash: nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today. liberty stands with you™ liberty mutual insurance.

welcome back car rental stocks were soaring today. avis budget announced earlier it reached a deal with alphabet self-driving cars waymo to manage its autonomous fleet in phoenix. by the way, hertz rallied, too, and spiked even more after a report that hertz is working with apple on a small autonomous fleet. hertz closed up 13.5%. hertz and apple are not partnering, apple is leasing six cars from hertz for autonomous software testing a sign of traditional auto companies giving in to tech? we asked jamie at bertine from consumer edge research let's talk about this waymo deal this basically says google doesn't want to be in the business of cleaning and maintaining these cars, so is that, you know, not only a short-term boon for avis, but perhaps the way that they are going to operate in the future >> well, first, thanks for having me. look, i think certainly the

symbolism here is very strong for hertz and avis today, and i think the reason they have reacted so strongly is it shows you how sort of beaten down they have been in the last call it, you know, six, seven months, right. there's a problem in terms of brand awareness and pricing potential throw uber and lyft, even to their market share and then residual value pressures, how those impact their fleet, their ability to securitize the fleet and so forth, so this is very much i think a concern for those that are short these names because it shows that they may have a seat at table, right, and what my people often forget on av is utilization is going to be quite high, right, meaning you'll cycle through tires and brakes and maintenance services a lot more frequently than a traditional rental company does waymo want to be in that business, too, or do they want to outsource it? >> carl icahn is building a whole nationwide size of fleets for these companies. you can argue it's a case for investing in micheline

if waymo says its cars are going to log six times more miles a year than your average car, but, again, does google need to be in that business, or will they outsource the maintenance of the whole thing? >> i don't know if google needs to be in that whole thing and i don't know if google knows how that this would play out and the role of being part of the operating system, how they are powered, et cetera i don't know where everyone will spread out everyone is spreading bets and hedging all around i don't think it's an easy path between the networks that hertz and avis operate right now and where they need to be but to jamie's point they are certainly better positioned than starting from scratch. >> and meanwhile this news about apple and hertz, even if it's not quite anywhere near the scale of the waymo announcement. >> right. >> do you feel like it could be some day >> very hard to say. look, by the way, the waymo announcement is still a very, very small announcement. i believe it to be something relegated to sort of the phoenix

market, so, again, today is more about symbolism than anything else, and i think mike is right. i mean, there's a lot of sort of hedging going on i think a lot of the technology developers are real excited about what they are seeing internally and, you know, we're seeing a lot of headlines suggesting we're further along with avs. >> yeah. >> are they getting a little bit too far ahead of themselves and trying to line up and shore up all the strategic partnerships before really the vehicles en masse sort of hit the road, so i don't want to read too much into it, but certainly if you think hertz and avis are going away in effect because of uber or lyft or apple cars, what have you. >> you have to think again. >> things show today they are not. >> jamie albertine we want to leave it there to get back to more news on the cbo health care bill score >> kelly, more details on how the senate bill would affect premiums the cbo found premiums would rise in the first few years after enactment and then fall

after 2020 they are finding that the average premium would increase by 20% in 2018 it would rise by 10% in 2019 compared to current law, but then it would fall by 30% in 2020, and that sounds like a good thing, but part of the reason that you see such a dramatic decline is because at that point insurance could cover fewer benefits the actuarial value would be 58% versus the 70% under current law, so your insurance would cost less but that's because it would also cover less. would you also see more federal funding for some of these premiums as well start to kick in in 2020 the cbo found the senate bill would largely leave state health insurance plans stable, but there are some areas in which no insurer would provide coverage or only insurers would provide coverage with very high premiums now particularly that would

affect rural areas can you see perhaps a state like colorado where senator cory gardner has been skeptical and worried about some of the impacts of this bill on the coverage in his state. they have seen insurance coverage double since obamacare was enacted, and he's worried that that number could start to dwindle if this bill goes through, so, again, we're still digging through this very lengthy report from the cbo and we're bringing more details as we have it, kelly. >> more quickly. you mentioned earlier that the health bill was set to drop premiums by 25% and in this case if we take the 30% figure, even given all that you said, is that still an ales to apples comparison >> it is somewhat of an apples to apples comparison even the cbo says it's very difficult to give an average because health plans would vary so much by states because some states may decide to opt out of snern aca requirements, whether or not they take advantage of those waivers or not will impact what the cost of the premiums will be. >> yeah. and as you mentioned there will

be less coverage, less costly and these are complex projections that we have to make thank you for joining us with the latest. a new study meantime revealing the $15 wage hike in seattle is wage hike in seattles costing low wage workers money. coming up "fast money" netflix's ceo mitch lowe will weigh in on scripted content more "closing bell" after this

it's been three years already since seattle officials approved a minimum wage hike to $15 an hour. it's not having the desired effect on the local economy. kate rogers joins us with those

details. kate >> reporter: hi there. the study found the wage increase that was intended to help low-wage workers is instead hurting them kporgt to the date tax the pay hike costs squout weioutweighed by 3-1 the report was conducted by economists at the university of washington, commissioned by the city and published by the national bureau of economic research and has not yet been peer reviewed. it is phased in over several years depending on the size of your business reaching $15 an hour for all businesses by 202 2021 this study looked at the first and second phases of the ordinance, $ 9 to $13 over the past two years, reduced hours' worth in low-wage jobs by 9% as wages increased by 3% across all industries businessowners in seattle have hired more skills and experienced workers in wake of the minimum wage hike to justify the increase lower skilled or younger workers may be negatively impacted

the study comes as debate over the minimum wage goes on nationwide president trump said the decision should be left up to states but supports a $10 an hour federal minimum the federal minimum wage is still currently $7.25 an hour, has not been raised since 2009 half of the states nationwide have wages higher than that current federal minimum level. >> thank you very much >> thank you. >> kate rogers. wizards and muggles alike celebrating harry potter's 20th anniversary. a breakdown of the big bucks potterphiles have spent over the past two decades is next (dance music)

(large boat honking) ♪ i'm living that yacht life life life life ♪ top speed fifty knots life ♪ on the caribbean seas ♪ it's a champagne and models potpourri ♪ on my yacht made of cuban mahogany ♪ gany, gany, gany ♪ watch this don't put off checking out your medicare options until 65. now is a good time to get the ball rolling. medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you. that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans

insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company come in. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could help save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. taking informed steps really makes a difference later. that's what it means to go long™. call now and request this free decision guide and explore the range of aarp medicare supplement plans. all plans like these let you choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. these are the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp. call now and request your free decision guide... and start gathering the information you need to help you go long™. (b♪by crying) minutes old. ♪ a baby's skin is never more delicate. ♪ what do hospitals use to wash and protect it?

♪ johnson's® the number 1 choices in hospitals. welcome back it is hard to believe, it's been 20 years since the first harry potter book hit shelves. eric joins us now with just how big the franchise has become over those two decades eric >> that's right, kelly today in 1997, this book came out in the uk "harry potter and the philosopher's stone. a year later the american publisher scholastic swapped the word out "philosopher," put in

"swa "swarserer." an interesting fact, the total franchise, how much money it's made, the books, the merchandise and the box office each made $8 billion equally. they've been just as important together when you see other movie franchises, one category usually far outpaces the others, not the case with harry potter add the dvds, $3 billion, along with theme park admissions, $30 billion in total value in 20 years. that's a billion and a half per year take a look at our own parent company, nbc universal they bought the tv rights to the nims to go along with the theme park rights it already owned and that's part of the spiral to get younger audiences into the franchise. they want to get them to watch it on tv, watch the movies, experience the theme parks and keep the cycle going over and over again for the people that are less than 20 year s old. when you look at the latest quarterly earnings, universal

studio hollywood said their attendance rose 60% primarily due to the recently added harry potter attraction. back to you, kelly. >> you know, eric, mike and i were brooking it up, general mills has a $30 billion market cap. j.k. rowling created -- her creative spark has been a $30 billion enterprise which is not too shabby. >> that's much value, my guess is higher profit margins than general mills enjoys although, confusing revenue with market cap and all the rest. but still. >> by the way, eric, did you see the domino's thpizza, has a hary potter scar today? >> facebook, instagram, have done fun emojis and custom google earth things as. >> eric, have you read any of the harry potter books >> i've been catching up i'm a little behind. i haven't done all seven. >> michael, have you >> i have not. tried to get the kids interesting. only spotty on that regard. >> two more people, potential untapped business. >> a gross business, kelly.

>> i love the fact they had to sub out philosophers -- >> i know, i wish they would put that back in. >> makes a lot of sense. >> i did read the first one. i loved it i think i saw the first movie. so there you go. there's much more. $30 billion and counting er eric, thank you show much. >> you got it. >> back at hq. michael, thank you see you tomorrow that does it for "closing bell" today. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk, peteadami president trump is meeting with the indian prime minister. a joint news conference. we'll take you there. facebook the latest to dive into the world of television will it make a splash? what will it mean for the rival, netflix? we'll ask the co-founder in an excuser interview. apple's newly anticipated iphone 8