tv Options Action CNBC July 1, 2017 6:00am-6:31am EDT
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the guys get ready the to kick off the fourth of july weekend, but before you fire up the grill, here's what we've got on the show. >> put that coffee down. >> that's what investors have been b doing with shares of starbucks and dunkin'. but there's something in the chart that suggests now is the time to buy. we'll break it down. plus, a number of left for dead stocks are staging a stealth rally. we'll tell you the names and how to cash in and later. did you lose money in any of the faang stocks well, relax. because we have a way to get your money back for less than three bucks.
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we'll explain. the action begins right now. let's get right to it because as the dow and s&p close ever so slightly higher, there was somewhat of a stealth rally in one beaten down group of stocks check out xr up more than 3% it was a number of department stores that actually outperformed, kohl's and dillards up 5% tj maxx, up 4% macy's and j.c. penny both up 4% is that th the start of a retail resurgence let's go to the man who called the worst chart in the whole world. >> it has been for six or so months making it a series of higher lows and lower -- you got it got the point. here's the deal. we are overstored as it relates to department stores they've been going down for almost two years now, the fact we're starting to see these bounce a little bit after a series of strategic deals. back to the amazon purchasing whole foods for $14 billion.
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the announcement that i think helped nike a whole lot today. that they are going to be opening a store front on amazon, a digital store front. these are strategic deals. they speak to the challenges in retail and when you look at the store, we know this well that there is just way too many of them. they need to consolidate and close some of the underperforming stores some of the names have a lot of opportunities as it relates to the real estate market there's good real estate to monotize there, so they're cheap. we know the sentiment is really poor and there's probably some stuff to do there, that's why some of the names are bouncing right now. >> quick one on comparing basically boxed retailers to whether you're talking about nike or whole foods. it's a difference between brand as e tail versus you know, the other thing is that everybody talks about the fact that they have these great -- buyers market isn't it?
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so when i think about it, i'm not necessarily sure we had a big bounce in crude that doesn't mean that's over. >> we know when things are extreme, you often get moves the other way. it's what inversion is i think the thing is you've been quite accurately bearish on. not sure anything's changed. yes, they bounce, wu the real story is there's something wrong more generally i don't know what changed. >> something wrong in the high-end supermarket store we're going to talk about macy's here back to the department store there was an article talking about amazon's approach, alibaba's approach in china. saying they're approaching it differently. they're making investments in big department stores and box stores they want to apply their set of services, lodgistics they want people on ali pay. that's why they want to invest in retailers i think we're going to see ha sort of approach i think we're going to see that here in the department stores and we may see consolidation think back to macy's two years ago -- was dying in real estate. at $20 billion 6 billion in debt. eight times earnings
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i think there's probably stuff to do. you would have a massive squeeze if we had an e taylor invest in macy's, get them the to downsize, do stuff amazon and mike hope to do in this thing. so macy's now is interesting to me it's town 35% of the year. it's got 70% of the highs. sentiment is horrible. you don't hear anybody talking about it, so to me, you want to look at that chart right there look at the down trend i think the intersection of the down trend and breakdown level from earlier in the year, that's 30 bucks you want to give yourself time look to january expiration today when the stock is is trading at 23 bucks you should buy the january 23, 32 and a half call spread for 2.35
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selling one of the calls at 35 cents, that spread cost you $2 on the upside, up to $7.5 between 25 and 32.5. that is a needy cost spread. i like the risk reward here and i think there's going to be sta treenlgic things that happen trz if you think about it and you're saying to yourself, is there potentially 10% worth of risk and i think i was make the case that yes, there is, there may be more than that. if you are inclined, this is the way you'd want to play it. meaning there's something not right here it's got to have someone take it out.
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>> an 11% move today have to do with the fundamentals of the quarter or with this sta treenlgic initiative >> it's more of a gambling play than it is an investment >> everything we do here is a bit gambling, right? >> we're "fast money", we're options action >> if we had invested directionally long in nike thinking that amazon was going to make a deal with it that was sort of an out of the blue special >> he was opposed to my bearish call, nike going into earnings talk about that. froms. >> there was going to be value there. nike has the same sort of situation. they've done strategic things.
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if i were alibaba and looking to make, get into, make a footprint here as far as retail in the united states, that would be something that or target or something would be very interested to invest in. what do you think would happen to macy's at eight times if they took a ten or 15% take >> you don't know. >> and also this, why macy's why not another one? did you find that one because that's the most likely candidate? >> i think the most likely among department stores. >> all right clearly, we have dissension here your daily cup of coffee may perk you up in morpg, but we can't say the same for your portfolio. the coffee trade cooling off starbucks down 7%. dunkin' down 5% in june. coffee futures have falling 4%, but our chart master says one of these trades is about to warm back up.
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break it down, carter. >> doesn't make a play on starbucks, it's been weak and maybe you've got bounce potential. start with the lopg term chart and sort of work backwards to the here and now what you have on the screen is well, it's a ten-year chart. you can see the lines i've drawn. often, if you break out as you see here, from a well defined formation you will fall back to the point from which you broke out before going again you have this great rupp up and then this consolidation. trz one way to be to draw it as this again, that wedge, then the phenomenon where you break out and revisit the apex before going again. another way you could draw the lines is a cup and handle. pretty appropriate for
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starbucks. yes, here's your cup the handle would be like that. okay next chart you've hit the one where we can get your breakout, a retest, then a go. with this, the really short-term chart. what this is, i want you to focus on this moment right here. this right here. and now, where we are now. and then put it in context what we have here is what you can see, a 20% move up 10% gave back. my dwesz is we found support and that we're going to get a good blabs, so i want to make the bet that starbucks is going to come to life on the buyer rt all right, so mike, what's your trade >> the september 60, 65 call
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spread spent 1.20 for that. going to report earnings on the 27th and unlike macy's antd some of the other retail thing, coffee doesn't fall out of favor. i've got the app, a lot of you do, too, and chances are you're going to get coffee tomorrow just like you did today and every day prior. >> that's fantastic, mike. i had the technician respectfully disagree with me on macy's i'm going respectfully disagree on the technicals. please put up a five chart of starbucks. it made a new high then failed >> that's what they do half the time by what i see, i see -- i see -- >> then explode. how it works the fact that it came in so
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hard, so quickly -- sounds like a gamble we talk about this all the time. i use tech talls as an input it's as much putting your fincke ner the air and just saying this to me, what is the case that this thing should go back and make a new high and trade at 27 times earnings without a meaningful fundamental sort of catalyst that's a big input cost. so what are we looking at? consistent underpinning business growing at the top line. we have that to me, i look at it, made that new high >> you don't want to buy things that are going up. >> i would wait for it to make a
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few percent back then lay it out. >> got a question out there. send us a tweet. for everything options action, check out our website. while you're there, check out our supercool newsletter i'll be reading that this holiday weekend. so what are you waiting for? here's what's coming up next >> produce >> and that's exactly what dan did with the contrarian call on kroger and now, he has a way to make even more cash. plus, faang has been a disaster, but if you've lost money, we'll show you how you can get some of that money back for next to nothing. the strategy when options action returns. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge.
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that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. at crowne plaza we know business travel isn't just business. there's this. 'a bit of this. why not? your hotel should make it easy to do all the things you do. which is what we do. crowne plaza. we're all business, mostly.
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so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade call it fang drain all getting hit as the nasdaq 100 posted its worst month in a year hi, dom! so, if we talk about the market cap drain here, it's been pretty substantial for those faang stock, if you want to call them that if you take a look in total, at the total percentage drops for some of these big names. we're talking about a massive move here. the likes of alphabet doup by
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about 6% netflix down by 8. apple down by 6% amazon by two. facebook, the leader, only down by 1%. if you take them in total as of earlier today, it was around $94 billion in terms of market cap loss at the close, it turns out it's about $104 billion in market cap loss for just these stocks in the month of june, so a rough month for these guys $104 billion is like shedding all of kraft hines or all of honey well in just a month, so big deal here when these types of tech stocks fall the way they have the momentum is going to be the real issue, folk, we'll see if that stays that way into july and august back to you. >> great points.
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thanks dom fang drain has you panicking about portfolio, fear not. take it away, professor. >> we're going to talk about stock recovery strategies. this is what you want to do when trying to create near money leverage trying to get more back than you lost secondly, because there's been some weakness, you don't want to commit additional capital and finally, you do this when there's not the best set up. i'm looking now at alphabet, google, this chart does show potential trouble as far as i'm concerned. we're going to refer back to the experts here, but to me, that looks like a potential head and shoulders top. we're going look at july by the 950, 975. you buy one for $12. that whole thing costs you just over two bucks, which in the contest of a 900 stock is essentially no additional
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capital. and the nice thing here is that the only way that this is basically giving a trade off is above 1,000 bucks, this expires on the 21st. i think the chances this breaks out to new highs fween now and earnings is virtually nil. >> all right, so dan, what do you think? >> if you're long google, it has that the trade makesceps because you're not paying for it adding any risk to your long position the idea that mike chose an expiration before they report, you don't have any gap risk. that would be kind of anow noying if you had the stock going through 1,000. i like this trade if you're looking to do an overlay and trying to get that back in the next couple of weeks >> the selling, b obviously probably not specific to google. three fridays ago, they cracked. not a one that be able to get back they've drifted lower. this is the top five stocks by market cap in the s&p.
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the names that you know, it's apple, amazon, google, microsoft, facebook. we've blown out through the top of the channel a five year channel. we're going revisit the upper line it's why the market's struggling, the value of this top five basket is 3 trillion. that's the same as the bottom of the 250 stocks there's more down side i think in the google pattern specifically, but all of this. >> of these stocks, that's one of the weakest ones clearly. so that's one of the reasons why reaching out, buying a 930 stock, taking on additional risk if you're hoping you get some, this is a trade you can put on
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and if it doesn't, you've risked nothing basically to try to get that >> how would you manage the trade if the stock rallied back? >> i would just let this thing ride right to expiration because the catalyst you're looking at is the july 24th earnings. this is going to expire before that so, you know, the worst thing that happens that goes up to 1,000, once you get your money back
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>> home tee poe, going to sell, going to sell. >> what i'm saying is the longer these things can't bounce back is the longer it has the potential to carry over. >> all right up next, nike shares surging more than 10% today after a big earnings, but that's not such great news for mike ft he's betting against the stock last week he'll tell us how he's fixing his trade. plus, hey, you out there dig deep into those pockets, send ut a tweet. we may answer it more right after this. steve, e move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. see options data like never before. with thinkorswim only at td ameritrade.
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mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. welcome back time to take a look back at open trades, two weeks ago, dan made contrarian call on kroger. >> the next identifiable catalyst will be the fiscal earnings going to come on the morning of september 8th that's what i want to target here when the stock was trading at 21.70 today, you could by the october 22, 29 call spread buy one of the october calls for a buck 70, selling one for at 20 cents. >> shares of kroger are now up 5% dan. >> so, this one was a double whammy here. they announced earnings and guided down then had the sta strategic thing.
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you paid 1.50 pr for this. i think you want to be patient here wait this out until their earning, anything positive i think you have this stock above 25 for next month. >> unfortunately, we can't all be winners here. last week, cosaid the just sell nike ahead of earnings >> specifically the trade i'm looking at as i look out to july, i wanted to target this level where it had fallen out of bed. you can sell the 53.5 and collect 35 cents for that. you're collecting 35% of the total maximum value. >> the stock surged more than 10% is now trading back to its march high, so what do you do now, mike? >> this isn't an open trade. this is a closed trade here. if you basically have to you know, take your losses on this i will tell you, you have to use your limit order if you're going to put this thing to bed it's a $1 call spread, you should never pay more than a dollar to close it bid 90, 95 cents, that's the only thing you can do from here. >> there's nothing wrong with being wrong.
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wrong, you get out >> how about the chart now on nike sxwl after a reset like that, you don't want to be bearish >> all right, up next, your tweets and the final call from the options pits hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade
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what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. see options data like never before. with thinkorswim only at td ameritrade. time to take your tweets rich asks if you're looking to be short tech would you rather puts with xlkoqqq. >> qqq apple, amazon k facebook, microsoft and google make up 41% of that one. i think you get a check back to 130. >> from 65 to 58 i want to try starbucks. >> mike. >> the sub 60s 65 call spread starbucks. >> yeah, so if you want to be
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contrarian like kroger, look at macy's >> monday is a shortened holiday trading session. for more, check out our website, we'll see you back here next friday stay tuned "mad money" is up next >> announcer: the following program is a paid advertisement for the hd mirrorcam, brought to you by inventel products, llc. yep, they're out there, driving recklessly, causing accidents, and driving up your insurance rates! this is a show about car accidents... ...classic cars... ...and the hd mirrorcam, the personal security camera for your car. this is... "accidents caught on camera" with the hd mirrorcam. today, we're going to hear from people who have been in accidents and used the hd mirrorcam to prove their
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