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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  July 5, 2017 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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buy. >> thanks so much for watching we'll see you tomorrow at 5:00 don't go anywhere. "mad money my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. how the heck can this market stay up at these elevated levels, dow dipping just one point today, s&p advancing,
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nasdaq gaining 0.67% even as two of the most sectors out there, autos and retail, just can't get out of their own way? how is this even possible? look, it makes sense to be concerned. the united states, after all, is a service economy, with much of it revolving around what we purchase today was another reminder as we see whole portions of the auto sector, just getting obliterated -- >> sell sell sell. >> with the retailers once again on the ropes the papers, the papers are filled with the dramatic decline in auto sales year over year >> the house of pain >> that's historically been a terrible sign for the broader economy. today we get the complete collapse of the auto parts retailers. led by the unfortunate o'reilly automotive
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really o'reilly a very reliable company where they've given you 1.7% same-store sales growth. that's down from the 3% to 5% growth management had been forecasting. it caused the company to announce their earnings and drove the stock down 19% today we got a real domino effect -- >> sell sell sell sell sell sell sell sell. >> with the stock of advanced auto parts plummeting 11% and auto zone falling over 9%. that's incredibly strong stuff when taken with slower sales, it suggests the consumer is not spending on cars, period now, o'reilly tried to pin the weakness on the weather. but it's obvious that there's been a structural change to this industry, which has led to declines in what was once a steady group
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these were so ferocious they roll over to the aisle of home depot and lowe's and the weakness spread through retail etfs. so it was a total chain reaction for the longest time, this kind of concentrated selling could bring the market down. they're too big to ignore. but today it even barely scratched the surface of the market what the heck is going on? i'll tell you what is going on there have been some fundamental changes in the u.s. economy that are not being acknowledged and they're allowing the market to blossom without retail sales or auto so i see ten sectors responsible for much of the recent advance and it's worth going over them
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look at these, i got these socks at macy's yesterday for a real bargain. the ten sources of strength, health care, travel and leisure, cap on goods, oil and gas derivatives, the stay and home generation, defense, air owe space, housing, e-commerce and banking. i flipped those two. any way, how do i know these i spent a huge amount of time n analyzing the 52-week highs. first there's a major change occurring how individuals spend their time and money we shouldn't roll our eyes there's a sense that millennials don't have much of a use for
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material goods anymore some of this is no part of the selfie generation. they want to take pictures of themselves and post them on facebook and instagram whatever travel and leisure stocks, everything from hotels and timeshares to airlines and cruises live on the high list because they have endless runs of better than expected earnings, that's what drives stocks and then there's health care health care, aren't we always fretting and worrying about the runaway health care bills, right? i mean, it's like all in a cliche they become a fact of life as much as we hate them, our inefficient system is terrific for the medical device makers, hospitals, pharmaceuticals, you
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name it. third, we've gotten a surge in the earnings of the capital g d goods companies and that's related to the improving global economy, not the u.s many businesses realized years ago they had to diversify away from the united states and they spread their wings to europe and asia and emerging markets. those moves turned out to be poorly timed, at least until this year with the rest of the world in recovery mode, heavy equipment makers are experiencing what i'm regarding as a nirvana moment. i know nirvana fourth, the companies that consume our natural resources, the makers of plastic, are experiencing an amazing renaissance, with the cheapest feed stock in the world, they dominated. you have to check the symbols, who is that? what is this huntsman? get it fifth, retail keeps getting
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killed because the consumer is staying at home. but the flip side is the reason they stay at home, because home entertainment has never been better, from netflix to video games. we have more and more things drawing us away from going out the money is going somewhere, just not like where it used to be, like domino's. did you own domino's five years ago? six, with the news that north korea just successfully tested an icbm, when you throw in our defense budget goes higher, it makes a stronger earning streak. seven, we also have the aerospace bull market to thank eight, we know housing is an industry that punches above its weight it accounts of 10% of consumer
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spending, but the demand is off the charts, versus supply. each though the overall housing start numbers aren't that strong and rates are going higher, the same does for the businesses that sell into home improvement retailers. the reason that strength doesn't extend to retailers, the power of e-commerce. meaning amazon with the addition of whole foods, amazon is becoming its own separate category. but there are whole complexes of companies and businesses involved in getting product to you from the wherever, the sup ply distribution, don't know, the warehouse. look at that stock to the data center, reitz, fedex, ups and theanks to the fed's commitment to raising rates despite low inflation, and new rules that allow them to return more capital to shareholders, we
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have a brand new bull market so it's true, autos and traditional retail may be weak, but these ten other sectors can just f just foyie a lot of strength, certainly to make the stock market plow higher even without the usual suspects helping us along. mark in louisiana, mark. >> caller: boo-yah, cramer >> boo-yah right back to you go ahead >> caller: shout out to my wife, our 1-month anniversary. >> i didn't know you had that after a month. go ahead >> caller: is it possible the company will be able to make decisions faster with a focus on creating value and making innovati innovation >> what was the company? >> ford motor company. >> no, no. happy anniversary, though. let's go to laura in florida
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laura! >> caller: hi, cramer, how are you? >> good, how about you >> caller: good, good. so i bought wells fargo last wednesday morning as a trade, as an open and prior to the fed's announcement the banks had passed the second set of strength tests and ultimately, i sold it friday morning at a nice profit my question was, would it have been worth holding the stock as a longer term investment based on the banks -- >> laura, you did it just right. you got real horse sense my charitable trust you can follow we told the club, this is a chance to scale out of wells fargo. they got a heap of problems, it's going to take another ten months before people forget them it's an inexpensive stock but i want more of that out of the stock. we deserve that. i'm going to my home state, joe
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in pennsylvania. joe! >> caller: hi, jim, it's joe from erie, p.a thank you for taking my call you are an asset to the community. >> really? >> caller: i bought facebook after the ipo and it's done very well >> again, my charitable trust did the same >> caller: i own three oil stocks i am wondering if i should consolidate and what is the best way to do? >> epd is the only one of those that is great. they don't have wild and crazy ambitions. they are level headed. epd is the best of that group. sure, the autos and retail, they're not doing too well all right, let's stipulate that. but you know what? there are another ten sectors justifying the market strength and i think they can continue to do so.
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some of the markets top performance, but many aren't willing to give them the time of day. is this creating an opportunity for you, the home gamer? don't miss my look at tech sectors top ten. and i'm going to go off the charts to find out if oil will continue low and i just got off vacation. don't i look well rested what do you think? the wife likes it. no matter where i was, everyone was concerned with just one stock. i'll tell you what it was and why you should own it. so i suggest you stick with cramer >> don't miss a second of "mad money. follow @jimcramer or tweet at #madtweets or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc
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with tech rallying nicely today, i think it's a good time to address a pernicious notion that just won't die. the idea that tech stocks have become wildly overpriced it seems like every hedge fund manager who still cares about individual stocks believes that tech is too expensive.
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it doesn't matter what these companies do or how overwhelmingly profitable some of them are. a lot of investors won't accept the prices these stocks trade at most take it as a given that tech stocks are guilty, guilty as charged of overvaluation. in fact, anyone who tries to argue otherwise, is exposed to endless cat calls and ridicule >> sell sell sell. >> since i've been the target of ridicule for years any way, i'm going to try to put this discussion in a less emotional, more empirical light are tech stocks really overvalued why don't we do this let's discuss the prospects of the top ten tech performers in the s&p 500 from the first day of the year now that it's in the books, with an eye how their come padres did in 2000 and 2001 because the dot com collapse remains a benchmark people do understand we're making a rare two-parter
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for tonight's show first, i need to remind you that unlike many who throw around the dot com analogy, i experienced this period firsthand as the founder of the street.com, and a hedge fund manager who made a kill i killing riding tech stocks higher, and then shorting the heck out of them in the peak of march of 2000. i participated in the climb from the nasdaq 2815, the number, in october of 1999. that was the real base camp of the ascent so the summit on march 10th of 2000 at 5,084 and then the collapse to 1611, 13 months later. what an arc, and what a reversal i know what i'm talking about here, and i know from experience where so many people who invoke the dot com era were barely out of pampers when this happened.
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and when you look at the top performing stocks of the s&p, many of these winners are names i've been pushing for years, like social, mobile, cloud, artificial intelligence, machine learning, augmented reality. and of course, the internet of things they read like a "mad money" greatest hits play list and i'm proud of that. without further ado, let's run through the top ten from best to worst. there's activism blizzard, up 59%, and its doppelganger, electronic arts. number eight, up 34% both companies are really at the very heart of the worldwide entertainment shift towards digital video games. the widespread perception catering to pimple faced american teenagers playing alone in their basement is so wrong that it makes the stocks
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undervalued. there are tens of millions of gamers in their 30s and many dedicated solely to games. these companies are riding three of the most powerful trends out there. super fast graphic chips, increasingly amazing games that they can sell you over the internet, giving you gross margins in the 80s third, the global phenomena of e-sports, with international competitions, including u.s. enter collegiate video game colleagues growing faster than all other sports what makes this so crazy is that there are only three major publicly traded game developers. take two is up 46% for the year. you know what that does? it gives them real scarcity
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value. while all three stocks are in the high 20s and 30s, their businesses are showing accelerating revenue and earnings growth, with burgeoning levels of cash in sort, activision and ea have no resemblance to the biggest tech winners from the turn of the century. meanwhile, in 2000, most of the tech leaders were about to experience a sudden dropoff in sales. i would argue that the exact opposite is true for these video game companies, all of which seem like they're on the verge of earnings breakout of epic proportions. i'm not even talking about china, where the communist party has strong armed ten cent into rationing. party? party poopers. next up, adobe, a cramer fave. this cloud based software giant
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has rallied 37% for the year it has multiple streams of growing revenue. t gross margins are up to an outstanding level, and they're about to have another growth spurt courtesy of artificial intelligence, aided by the ceo it's spectacular and i don't know if you saw it, buti regar it as other worldly. many talking to myself, instant, real, artificial intelligence. companies accelerated growth took people by surprise, the stock no longer captures the gain of the most recent quarter. and you're almost getting that quarter for free
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again, the price to earnings multiple may seem reminisce sent of the dot com era until you do the homework and reddit, a 36% gain for the first half in 2017 the company just had a big uptick in earnings many industries are only beginning to migrate to the cloud. red hat simply misunderstood by a marketplace that still has trouble getting its head around the massive savings from cloud it costs about a quarter what you might have paid in the old days rounding out the top five is another one we love, auto desk, up 36% autodesk, the leading player in
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computer aided design software is 100% enterprise individuals don't use it it allows companies to translate ideas to the real world. they have this fa the biggest competition is pirated versions of their own software autodesk isn't secret save, but i've been promoting it because i see the same pattern tier of adobe's stock. to me the valuation a little more palatable so after pulling back for weeks, tech is bouncing today, and i need to get your head around the idea that this group could have more upside than you imagine that's why we're going through the remaining top ten tech
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reporters in the s&p 500 after the break. okay, much more "mad money" ahead after the rest of my tech check, i'm going to talk about the drop in oil prices are we in for a crude reality when it comes to crude i'm going off the charts to find out. the carmaker volvo is going all electric by 2019 does that mean shares of tesla are about to go into overdrive key re going to want to hear m ta first and you thought the fireworks were over? you ain't seen nothing yet the lightning round is coming up stick with cramer!
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every box included for $25 a month. only from directv. ♪ let's not rush to judgment when it comes to panning today's tech rally we have so many people liking the best performers in technology to the dot com era,
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that i need to keep hammering the idea that tech is a lot less expensive than it might seem we've already covered the -- five of the top ten. so now we need to go over the remainders, because many of these stocks are so misunderstood, many of them, but not all of them. the number six best performer in tech in the s&p is micron, symbol mu, up 38% for the year this major semi conductor company reported just last week, and delivered still one more widely positive upside surprise. some analysts predicting a doubling that's precisely the problem unlike the other tech winner, micron is well understood. there's no mystery here.
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despite a remarkable earnings, it declined 5% because micron makes two kinds of chips regarded as commodity products while the company begs to lay out all the difficulties of making both, the fact is, both parts of the business are at risk from potential competition. it's very much on the drawing board, particularly from samsung. having lived through way too many cycles, i get the lack of excitement for micron. even worse, this kind of activity is top-like behavior. every weak in the stock has been preceded by a remarkable trouncing of earnings. and then a crash also has the stock with the one of the lowest price-to-earnings
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multiples in the market. when the stock is trading five times earnings, you have to assume the estimate also be cut and cut dramatically so why bother with micron when there's so many better names you can own? and then the seventh best tech performer, that's pay pal. like the stocks i mentioned before the break, paypal is another example of underperformance they have continually written off this payment company as road kill under the tires of visa and mastercard, as well as major banks and titans like google and amazon yet instead of being enemies, they've become more like frenemies.
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two payment processing companies many of you have never heard of and are doing quite well but paypal is seen as the ultimate winner because it's so beloved by a word everybody is tiring of, millennials it's the fastest grower in the industry one of the reasons why the stock trades at 29 times earnings, it's a rapid adoption of paypal's core product. can the stock go higher? a lot of people think paypal is plateauing here, i think they're wrong. after today's rally, it might pull back before it has its next leg up but i like it. and consider the erratic run of the next best performer among the tech stocks. you can just read my mind, right? you know what i'm talking about. the one i named my dog after,
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nvidia i've been a huge supporter of this stock, but even i disputed the last ascent. my fear now is more about missing the next leg up than being obliterated by the next leg down from artificial intelligence to gaming to bitcoin. it's also essential to the mining of all crypto currencies. for this you're paying 40 times earnings for an $85 billion company. so you know what i know it looks expensive. some think it's grossly overvalued but remember, intel sold at
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roughly 200 times earnings with a $400 billion capital march in fact, i think nvidia feels more like intel stock when it was at $3 in 1993 and then went to $26 in four years.++ fast
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about 24 years ago in the dot com industry, i accumulated a small amount of microsoft, which is now a large amount, over 14,000 shares, every time i get motivated to sell it, there's a downturn or announcement the recent cloud announcement, the consoles, the gameconsoles
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buy or hold? -- i mean, sell or hold? >> i'm a buyer of microsoft. i like what the stocks are doing. there are very few of them i think by the way, the news about the possibility of layoffs in the organization, i never want to see people fired, but it tightens the ship even more. but the ceo always welcome on the "mad money." let's go to steve in california. steve! >> hey, jim, boo-yah >> this is what they do, they're calling in and i love that what's happening
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>> we love it, too i appreciate all the advice you give me. thank you so much. >> thank you >> caller: i want to ask you about ali baba the first question isrst part, retailer with technology i think it's run brilliantly i've liked them ever sense >> buy buy buy >> it is the real deal okay i've been in the game for long enough to understand what's behind the remarkable run in the top tech plays this year and let me tell you, they do not, i repeat, they do not have resemblance to the achievers of the dot com era, and i lived through it much more "mad money" ahead. oil has had its longest bull run in five years. will it continue or turn around if and why tesla, apple and bitcoin have captured the world'
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i can't say it enough, every
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time oil bounces it comes right back down. it rebounded up to the low 50s at the end of may, and back to the low 40s by the end of june then last week it climbed up to 46, kicked at 4 yesterday, and today repealed part of that move despite all of the crude bulls out there, and boy, we've got way too many of them, we have too much supply for crude to mount any kind of sustained rally. that's why we're going off the charts with the help of a brilliant tech nick, the co-founder of carly trading, and the author of "higher probability commodity trading. she's got a terrific track record and she's called every one of these moves right as we can see from the first chart, oil has carved out a clear trading range, okay? it's stuck between the low 40s and low 50s. obvious, right
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and this action has wreaked havoc in the accounts of trading. there are a group of people who are called trend traders, and they trade the trends. when they start salivating that it looks like crude is about ready to break out, the price collapses and the bulls are caught with their pants down but when oil gets too low, it bounces back last week, crude seemed like it was in a death spiral, until it found its footing around $42 it should be the most predictable thing at this point, in the low 40s, producers thing about turning off the spigot yet so many traders assume the momentum will continue in either direction and they keep getting caught on the wrong side of the train, which garner saysis exaggerating the volatility of the oil market consider the commitments of traders report issued weekly by the commodities trading
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commission it tells us the short positions of three classes of investors, small spectatospectators, moneys and commercial hedgers garner points out that each time the large speculators have increased their net low position in oil this year, each time the price of crude has peaked. similar, every time the so-called money -- the price of oil rebounded. it's like they can't hit straight when it comes to energy they just can't. but it's not just traders and hedge funds that keep getting it wrong. every time the analysts go bearish, oil finds a bottom. garner thinks this pattern will continue, which makes me wonder how long it's going to take before these experts figure out what's going on or get fired of course, take a look at the chart that shows the
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historical -- you might want to look at this, the historic seasonal patterns. while most seasonal patterns are neutral at this point in the year, garner note fls you zoom in on just the last five years, the data reveals that oil tends to experience a nasty decline in july, followed by temporary recovery based on a reading of these patterns, it's in the fall when crude breaks down. we'll probably bounce from here, but don't put too much faith in oil rally. you need to understand the channels in trading. so check this out. when oil has gone to the high end of the 50s, garner has warned us to get more cautious the price of crude rebounded from the lows and garner believes it could move back to near $50 a barrel, despite what
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happened today there's a powerful resistance at $51. we've got to support oil in the 40s. so next time you think about going all in on oil near 50, please refer back to this. when you increase supply without boosti inin ining demand, pricen that's economic 10s -- economics 101, people. but it's hard to pin point exactly where the reversals will occur. still, she thinks we could get a bit more lift after the round of selling exhausts itself, just not enough to lift us past $50 once that happens, back to 40,
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perhaps the low firt30s. take a look at the relative strength index or rsi. it's an important momentum indicator. the long-term weekly chart, the oscillator, it's been neutral for a couple of months that suggests we could get a bit more upside despite the pullback how about the daily chart? take a look at this. in this case, the daily and the weekly tell a similar story. west texas crude has two ceiling of resistance, one at $49, the other at $50 you probably would have seen today's selloff coming, because the williams r. percentage, oscillator, shifted into this territory.
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these readings will cool down, but even if you're pulled back, garner doesn't believe oil has enough to run past 50, so be careful. so don't let the commentary fool you. the charts interpreted by our own carly garner payment a clear picture, even as it sea saws in the low 40s and 50s, oil is struckin this trading range until something changes. or a huge pickup in oil use. right now, none of that is in the cards. "mad money" is back after the break. we're facing 20 billion security events every day. ddos campaigns, ransomware, malware attacks... actually, we just handled all the priority threats. you did that? we did that. really. we analyzed millions of articles and reports. we can identify threats 50% faster. you can do that?
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we can do that. then do that. can we do that? we can do that.
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buy buy buy, sell sell sell. >> and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skedaddy. it's time for the lightning round. johnny in georgia, johnny. >> caller: jim, parker -- >> last two quarters were beautiful. >> buy buy buy i need to go to chuck in tennessee.
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chuck. >> caller: boo-yah, mr. cramer how are you doing this eving >> fabulous. how about you? >> caller: outstanding real quick question here for you. the stock i'm interested in is lowe's with the restructuring going on, and now they're talking about getting rid of the specialists, bringing in part-time associates not knowing what they're doing, is it time to put the ceo back on the air >> he's okay home depot is doing better and i like home depot. and housing. i need to go to christopher in new york christopher? >> caller: what's up, jim, how are you doing? >> back from italy, feeling great. what's going on with you >> caller: sounds good looking to buy excel >> 52-week high.
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i'm waiting for a decline before i pull the trigger [ buzzer ] >> come on >> caller: jim, synomous financials >> like them very much one more call. ron in georgia >> caller: jim, love your show quick question, blue apron i bought it at $10, i was hoping to sell at $11 it's now at $8 >> yeah, that happened while i was away and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by - you know that thinkorswim
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you know something it's amazing what strangers talk to you about when you're on vacation i'm not talking about what most people discussed in italy where i just came back from. most of the discussion evolved around wine. you cou-- no, i'm talking about
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what interests italians about the financial world. first is apple i didn't see any samsung phones in italy they just wanted to know how apple is doing if i would have learned one phrase in italian besides ciao, it might have been -- i like skepticism. but what really gets the uses going, though, what american tourists want to talk about. tay want to talk about two things, tesla and bitcoin. these, not the incredible run on the dow or the worldwide gains or the fabulous tech stuff that works, tesla and bit. >> caller: both came up numerous times. and that's not unusual it usually starts with a tap on the shoulder like when are you going to talk more about
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bitcoin? they don't say hi, my name is, or would you like to meet so and so i avoid battlegrounds with everything, and i have who wants to be caught in the cross fire between research firms like we had today like goldman sachs? meanwhile, very solid bear day deliveries are good enough but then tesla was questioned over lack of disclosure involving poor production of batteries. but there's another excitement about their new model to drive the stock higher to me, stocks down $25
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how about crypto currency? what can i say that's beyond my camp. i do know that they're mined, so to speak and to do the mining, you need amd or nvidia chips. there's so many other factors at work, but when my bitcoin interrogator urged me to hazard a judgment, i just said stock, not bitcoin. i'm glad when people are passionate about anything related to finance, but i know enough to know when i don't know something. i found the best analogy for what i do may be in the sports world. i'm not going to tell you who's going to win the u.s. open if i cover the nfl. as much as i like the sound of my screeching voice and nasty philadelphia accent, i'm not
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going to bloviate about anything i don't understand well. so own apple and the rest, all yours. stick with cramer. okay going on with some things from last week i didn't get to opine on because i was in italy, i thought this nike quarter was exceptional, and i think that stock is actually a buy. general mills changed at the top. people should know that the stock did outperform during his tenure and micron, i thought the quarter was unbelievable but as i said, people are suspicious that it has to be
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peaking right now. on the tesla battle, please, please, understand that this is a cold stock, it's not given to reason it's not given to anything other than pure emotion. and that's not my style. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to find it for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer, and i will see you tomorrow 'll invest their owy or fight each other for a deal.y this is "shark tank." ♪ i live in beautiful salt lake city, utah. and i'm the founder of chapul. [ dog barks ] as an environmentalist, i'm very concerned about the future of our planet. and so that's what inspired me to create an eco-friendly energy bar. right now we work in a very small kitchen, and we make all the bars by hand. our product is the first of its kind in the world. it contains an extremely healthy, sustainable form of protein

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