pretty good and the problem is a lot of that translation stuff, that's going the way of machine learning that stuff's going to be gone. >> we got to go, too, guys thank you, have a great weekend. >> thank you >> that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. have a good weekend, everybody "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market side overlooking new york's time square i'm michelle caruso-cabrera in for melissa lee. our traders on deck -- tonight on fast, amazon takeover rages on there's a new report that says the number of prime numbers in the u.s. is surging, but how real are those we'll break it down with skeptics, plus, metals gone wild gold, silver copper getting crushed, but traders think the bottom might be in we'll explain then later, nap chat hovering on its ipo price, but investors are working on a key date that happens at the end

of the month that could spell more pain. we'll tell you what that is. first though, we're going to start with what looks like stock heaven today's jobs numbers coming in this morning, stronger than expecteded a sign of perhaps a strengthening economy. interest rates, they rose sharply this week, but still, they're low. oil's hovering around $45. that keeps energy costs low for the consumer and a strong earnings season is predicted just around the corner so, is this stock heaven why isn't this rally getting more respect with all those good factors? tim. >> michelle. welcome to the show, by the way. stock heaven is definitely an overstatement. i think t a difficult time for stocks i would actually run in the other direction. it's not that i think the markets are in a very dapg rouse place, but we're in place and you said it all week, for two weeks. central banks are, they're at least dimming down the lights in the party and telling you that the free money, it's still going to be relatively free, but not absolutely free. that's something that will have markets under some pressure.

while the first quarter was a very, very fresh kind of world of better earnings, i think sequential ly, the bar is a lot higher for earnings. it's game on time for stocks here now going into next week starting the second half of the year, that's -- >> it's more difficult in this environment. remember, we've had this wall of money that has come at us for five, seven years from sfcentra banks, now, they're saying spig et is off, that wall of money isn't going to be there. it's less money chasing the same amount of stocks now, i don't know if it's going to be a 5% correction or something like that. i think for the time being though, there are ways you can tactically by stuff. we talked about trades last night, particularly in the tech area that's how you have to play this mark i would agree. >> do you guys just pose it as a negative environment and why do they rally back today? just because wages were under pressure just because -- >> you didn't have the wage growth, so you didn't have that inflation. you could say, oh, it's great. >> the labor market is strong,

steve. no question. i'm not say iing that the worldi a bad place. is this man na from heaven no, it's not we're in vicious rotational heaven at the end of the day, it's like pick your sector s and trade against it we can continue to grind higher. not a straight shoot to the stars. the market isn't set up for a crash. >> but it has been a straight shoot. i think it is, we all talk about the passive investing slam apple is is owned by 150 separate funds >> because etfs. >> exactly so, when you get these sell off days, it's seen as a buying opportunity. if you look at a chart, it's always been a buying opportunity. we sell off two, three, 4% or whatever the case might be it's always green. so, the market sets up the hurt the most amount of people at the stam same time right now, people have been b betting against the market and every time the market rallies back yesterday, we all thought it was

going to be armageddon >> what if this time, the rising yields is real yes, interest rates are historic >> we were just talking about that they're not showing any sign of inflation. >> that's the problem. you get rising rates >> hold on, the five-day move. when you look add what happened in the german bond that's a sharp move. >> did yields get too low? >> we've gone through that whole scenario but at the end of the day, my position here is in the u.s. equity market, i understand banks, people say we're going to value them based on where the ten-years are going. at the end of the day, banks have probably the least downside risk in the mark they're not going to shoot up and it's not necessarily -- >> they caught up to the overall market pretty damn quickly still falling behind the xlk but if you look at it year to date, that's all the case.

if you go back a year, the banks are up 35% >> what about technology though? anything with a high multiple, it's so basic. anybody who's gone to a basic class knows when rates start to rise, the bigger the multiple on a stock, the more at risk it is because the earnings are so far out in the future and interest rates start to provide competition. >> that's the question >> they're not going to rise that quickly >> how do you know >> you can sense again, looking out at ten-year, at break evens. we're not going to move that quickly. zpl the bigger issue for the market over the last few days is the concept of high rates and a world where we don't have extraordinary growth we're stumbling through a 1.5, 2% you've got the fed and other banks raising rates into a benign, or a limp growth environment. in fact, if you said to me, steve, or if i said to you, fed's going to raise in september, december and we're going to grow the economy, do you still think that's heaven for stocks >> absolutely not.

>> do you have faith in the fed they're going to be paced? >> i think you have to ask yourself -- >> you don't know what they're doing? >> if they screw this up, it's a disaster the pace about continuously raising rates and dumping the balance sheet. >> hethey're not going to i think that's a long shot in general, but b i don't believe -- >> you don't think -- completely change >> things could -- folks, we -- the concept that the fed is a major risk for market and i think that's what we've experienced. where a lot of companies in anything came out and expectations are higher. so, you have a place where i think stocks are set up for a good earnings season where people have high expectations. you've got to dollar stall iing and if you don't get that and you have the fed continuing to lean on the breaks, that to me with the s&p at this

multi-millimultiple i not stock heaven >> grasso, what levels are you looking at >> let's saunter over here this is a very complicated scenario the last time i was up at the smart board, plasma, we replaced it with that term noll jinology important. it's the plasma now. when you look at this set up here, we're in uncharted territory. so, you have to go back. to an old high here which was 2400 and then you have to go back to a recent low, which was 23.22. you get these together and you wind up getting an overshoot level. it brings you up to here this is where i said the resistance was going to be if you skroled back to one of my other spots at the smart board this is where i thought we were going to tap out tap out. we actually tapped out three handles just a bit higher than this

24.53. so, if these bouncebacks because we are in uncharted, p right here, if they're redone right here, you're look at a new high of 2500 in the s&p once we really extend this bounce back >> if you're worried about the fed, your downside risk is basically to the 200th day this is your binary market this is what you're playing for. i believe that the market is running up based on lack of regulation or regulation coming in nothing has been done in d.c. other than the fact hence you get a trajectory higher, not lower.

you still stay the course. where do you get concerned 2200 around the 200 day is a major level. it's 10% lower spell that out >> i do gelt concerned a lot quicker than you would think. so your 50-day is 24 14. ultimately f we break down through this level, you're going to see that 23.85 level quickly and that's where i get concerned. if we break that level, tim, then i do believe we're going test that 200-day moouing average lower from here. >> taking a look at the market, come back to the desk. >> the levels and the liquidity

this week is very light. yesterday, i took a little bit off. zblt i think the markets are struggling with higher rates although they've made adjustments. >> i think that's going to continue to catch up with the smaller mid cap names in bio technology i think a lot of room there to the upside look at technology on pull backs, they buy a dip. there's more downside risk there and i look at i think in general, the banks are definitely an area that i want to buy if there's a pullback there. long-term, i think the et up is strong >> for me, i agree with tim. i think this is a market you need to be less long don't need to be bearish less long and choose your spot we talkeded about tesla last night around the $300 level. that seems like a good spot to buy stom some of the tech and

you wait for that bounce you make some money, move on this is the deep end of the pool type of market because we don't know what the ultimate reaction to the fed turning off the sp k spigot will be >> i've sold an acquisition that was almost a double i'm still long homebuilders. i'm still long technology. if you look at square, the stock has basically doubled. i did buy avis budget. car. that was a one that was left for dead >> coming up, the s&p 500 is up % this year, but about 40 stocks are down more than 20% so far in 2017 bear markets should you buy the laggards? traders are talking us bottom

fishing to catch the best bargains plus, snap is hanging on to its $17 a share ipo price, but all bets are off when it's locked up here and expires this month. how bad could the elling get got a special report and later, the big banks set to report earnings next week as earnings season gets put into full gear much more "fast money" still ahead.

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get fast internet and add phone and tv now for only $34.90 more per month. call today. comcast business. built for business. welcome back amazon continues to take over the entire world the new data point, prime subscriptions, soaring,at leas according to a new report released by the consumer intelligence research partners let's get to diedra. >> hey, 85 million, guys, that is the number of u.s. prime members amazon has according to that report. if that's true, it's double the number two years ago and that would make up nearly 70% of the 126 million households in the u.s. let me put that another way. 85 million prime subscribers is creeping up on costco's 88 million card holding members and

netflix's 100 million subscribers. at the top of the show, some are skrept cal that prime members have reached that many amazon doesn't publicly disclose the number of prime member, but it has given us clues, in its latest report, amazon added a new line retail subscription services, which generated 6.4 billion last year in revenue. different analysts said that would shake up to about 65 million prime members at the lower end and close to 80 million globally on the higher end. now, whether it's 65 or 85 million, guys, amazon has a huge incentive to grow this program because the cirp report as well as other third party analysis have found that prime members spend more in some cases as much double as nonprime members now, of course, guys, this has had huge implications for the retail world another chart making the rounds today comes from mkm

it shows the widening gap between amazon retail categories and store based retailers. the analyst says that amazon is essentially eating the retail world. >> feels like that sometimes thank you so much. you believe these numbers? >> 85 million u.s. prime members, that's an insane number the data we've done, we're suggesting probably 55ish to 60 million in the u.s their global was like 80 million. global number when they exit '16. there's 110 million u.s. households that have internet in the u.s. divide by 85 you're looking at 77% market share? >> isn't that positive >> i'm a bull. >> the data is incorrect >> does it bother you that they built a huge -- that's the

amazing thing. >> if the husband or the wife that's ordering all the time, they're doing it on amazon >> amazon's prime day on tuesday was the biggest day ever for the company in 2016. it's going surpass a billion this year. >> to say this prime number is not -- >> i know, it's not a correct number >> let me be the cold blanket on a wet day. where is the growth going to come from. if you've seen this massive growth and now, they've got 77% penetration, how much more can they do? they can't double from here. at some point, the market starts saying, okay, you're going to have this category >> at which category just the prime numbers if they have prime video and music and retailing, there's too in different levers they can pull on this way

they pull a rabbit houf a hat, $190 in the stock. >> we're just weeks away from what could cause a massive disruption in snaps already struggling stock julia is in los angeles with a look at what could mean for the stock. >> well, nearly 60% of snap's shares will become unlocked on july 31st, with another 25% unlocked a month later now, snap chat shares have been struggling since the pop the sell off accelerating after its first earnings report. the stock is now down about 40% from its highs hovering around its ipo price and short interest is on the rise the number of shares shorted nearly doubled from 39 million in may to more than 70 million in june. according to fact set. and mkm partners note that is if history is a guide, snap could have a rough few weeks 30 days prior, facebook, twitter

and link ed in traded down by 2% on average, but the stocks dipping by average by 14% on average in the final week before the lock up expiration now, snap's comes as the company has been announcing a range of product updates, including the ability to buy a custom filter, plus snap map and the creation of custom stories to make it easier for people to share moments with a group of friends. now, the pressure is on for snap to deliver on its next earnings report after its user growth slowed and the company missed wall street estimates after its last earnings michelle >> we all need a custom -- >> well, that is true. i do like the chocolate. >> when i look at the numbers julia just reported on, when you see the passing of other big tech names into the lock up period, it sounds like once the lock up period comes, it's over. it's all priced in people have sold right into it expecting that

>> what's most important is the next quarter >> they disappointed q1 out of the gate you dispint wall street twice, it's lights out for the near term lock up, yes, and also disappointment there's no question they've been making calls to sell side shops so they cannot miss. >> they've gone to number two outside of facebook. second to facebook on social ads. they've leapfrogged twitter, but you can to look at that ipo price 17 to your point, a lot of this is priceded in and the market once again sets up to hurt everybody. if you're all looking if same way down the tunnel and you think this market is going to sell this thing off, you might, a lot of -- >> how do you trade a lock up? >> i'm not sure you do i think we saw this with facebook i think a lot of these lock up days were difficult to actually time and inn think a lot of people

snapped the doubt because of how facebook performed they didn't do a great job, not only with numbers, but communicating their numbers. the problem is that facebook wasn't competing against facebook and facebook is destroying snap right now. my view here is that people want to believe that snap has got a facebook second life to it i also agree with steve though that the thegtivity around this stock high, which means in the short run, i would stay away >> stay on to snap still good >> don't worry, we'll talk more about tech stocks but a top tech tigs says the dharts look back you're watching "fast money" on cnbc we are first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> get back in there at once and sell, sell >> that's what traders have been b doing with gold. but there's something in the charts that suggests that now might be the time to buy plus, with nearly 10% of the s&p in bear market territory, we're

going bottom fishing looking for bargain buys at the bottom of the sea e. the names when "fast money" returns.

while the s&p has gained about 8%, dom chu is back at hq with some of the hardest hit names. >> michelle, if you've been long the market overall, it hasn't been a bad year, but if you picked stocks and the wrong

ones, you're in a world of hurt. for example, you take a look at the extreme laggards so far in 2017 there are stocks that have been negative out of the gate so far in this year and they're losing momentum. there's 40 members that are at least 20% lower for the year to date period. many of them are in these out of favor sectors like consumer oriented stocks for example, tribune adviser, down about 20% from in that time frame. under armour, down 28% macy's and advanced auto parts in the big auto parts trade sh it's lost 40% over the course of the past year to date period then of course, there are the beaten down energy stocks. halliburton among others it's down 23% so far year to date, they are either falling knives or down trend trades worth catching to pick a bottom. that's going to be a real key.

some are thinking about these trades for possible excess returns down the line. >> we're going to trade it now any of these names worth a nibble >> i think for a trade, the only name in list is under armour only because of the short interest however, going into earnings, you don't want to own the story. it is bad. >>. >> you always see koring the problem is is, the second half guidance. they're expecting 20% growth adidas even market share >> i think i'll take the other side on that under armour is a company in major transition they've had major management trangs, four or five posts leave. i think they're trapped in a same quagmire some of these other businesses are and they've become u bik wiitous and the stock's not cheap. >> the big variable, if stock tax policy chaks, they own a rate of 38%. so that's one that could really make the shorts cover.

if this is going to be the drill baby drill, you want to be b in halliburton. >> anybody dare ed by macy's? >> doesn't feel like the mood has changed. other than the exception of halliburton are industrying b that have been disrupted, so, you know, if r me, that's not a place that i want to bottom first nam fish the story isn't in tact in any of these for bk, it's a new touch >> what about the auto parts sector they all got hammered. >> because of amazon >> you would think -- >> it's hard to get in this trade when you feel like you're in the second, third ipg the amazon of this sector -- >> from bottom fishing to marlin's park in miami on monday, baseball's best hitters

are going to compete in the 2017 home run derby it's part of the mlb's all-star game festivities, so going around the horn for some home run stocks tim. >> newell is the company who makes the baseballs. also camping gear. co coleman. it's part of the fabric of this company. home run ball. >> abea. it is an orphan play small, 350 million market cap company. this is a stock that i can see tripling >> where do you go when there's live tv and something great like the all-star game? twitter. this is where they shine i think they changed the game. >> grasso. >> c.a.r avis budget. i believe this stock can double and a home run in my book if it does

>> and you're a home run thank you for joining me >> you don't score with me join us monday options action starts right after this break at fidelity, trades are now just $4.95. we cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.

you know i've been to greece, but when i want to speak greek, i come here it's all greek to me the guys are are getting ready behind me. here's what's coming up in the show >> my fellow americans, our long national nightmare is over >> that's what tesla investors are hoping will happen but there's something in the chart that suggests there's more pain to come we'll break it down. plus, gold is getting crushed. but there's another precious metal that looks even worse. we'll give you set up. an