tv Power Lunch CNBC July 11, 2017 1:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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quarter thing. now is the time to get in in advance of next week's earnings. >> you dump on curry and the gang and pick the stock. >> is it just me >> unbelievable. you are good s&p is down five that does it for us. thanks for watching. power lunch starts right now jeff curry on the show tomorrow we'll get jim back on. here is what's on the menu, russia agenda and e-mails. are we finally at the tipping point for investors? amazon is flying high. traditional retail stocks are being decimated. is all that fear and loathing being overdone could the retailers be your best money-making idea ahead? >> one analyzer says this stock is become amazon proof that name and more as power lunch starts right now
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welcome to "power lunch. the dow took a triple drop when donald trump junior released an e-mail of his plans to meet with a russian attorney that apparently had information about hillary clinton. the major averages have mostly recovered. the nasdaq back in positive territory. higher by 3 points tyler? >> i thank you very much i'm tyler mathisen we begin with the latest developments on that e-mail drama involving donald trump junior, russian interests, et cetera, et cetera. kayla tausche live at the white house. >> reporter: the existence of these e-mails first reported by "the new york times" and later tweeted the enfire chatire chaid
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appear to show the motivation for the meeting that the president's son took in june of 2016 with a russian attorney said to be connected to the kremlin. it would seem to support that the purpose of which was to obtain incriminating information about hillary clinton, then the president's opposition in the presidential election. according to these e-mails, a publicist who is attempting to get this meeting, this is obviously very sensitive information. it is helped along by two individuals who were reportedly acquaintances by the trump's family the president's son says, seems we have some time. if it is what you say, i love it, specially later in the summer we are still waiting on news of exactly what the substance of this meeting was the white house has claimed it was very short and no follow-up. the attorney in question, which was on the other side of this
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meeting told the "today" show it was the trump family that wanted the information and that they wanted it badly. we have not gotten an official response he says the vice-president is working every day to advance the president's agenda he was not aware of the president's meeting and not focused on stories about the campaign, specially those pertaining to the time before he joined the campaign. as recently as yesterday, white house deputy sarah huckabee sanders, was asked about this meeting and asked about exactly how it came together and whether, in fact, there was incriminating information shared the president was only made wear of this meeting a couple of days ago. we will have to wait and see what the white house says now that these e-mailshave been released whether they will have a changed statement on this matter
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we are expecting a briefing off camera by sara sanders and we'll let you know if we have any developing details in the meantime >> another shocking turn of events for lawmakers that had hoped to spend the week focusing on policy like health care and the budget the early reaction from gop lawmakers had hoped to put this behind them, this turn of events and these e-mails between donald trump junior and people with information with connection to the russian government is deeply troubling. here is south carolina senator, lindsey graham >> any time you are in a campaign and you get an offer from a foreign campaign, the answer is no i don't know what mr. trump junior's version of the facts are. he has to testify. that e-mail was disturbing what was equally odd to me is
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that the person they met with knew absolutely nothing. i don't know why they would pick somebody who didn't have any information about the clinton campaign >> reporter: i caught up with senator tim kaine who serves on the foreign relation committee he says donald trump junior's first call should have been to law enforcement. >> the e-mails are very troubling. i think have the dates right on june 3rd, he gets an e-mail that says we want to meet with you as part of a high-level russian government effort to elect your father. that should have set off red lights instead, it set off, i want to know more. >> reporter: house minority leader, nancy pelosi says, this white house is riddled with shadowy russian connections. we will be hearing from the gop and let you know what their reaction is when we get it let's bring in john harwood
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for more analysis on this story. john >> the significance of these disclosures is we have now moved from the question of is there plausible evidence of collusion or attempted collusion to what does that mean clearly, you have an attempt by donald trump jr., paul manafort, jared kushner to get information they knew was billed as coming from the russian government from what was described in the e-mails as a russian government attorney donald trump junior has said that the information did not have value we will see if there is more to learn about that now, the question is for months, the white house denied any collusion. legally, it is in dispute. some people think it would be illegal on its face to accept information of this kind from a foreign government others disagree with that assessment politically, it is clearly a new position that we're in now
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this is more difficult for republicans like lindsey graham who we just played the bite from to defend. this is something that you are going to see the senate and house committee look into. legally, uncertain politically, this is very damage to the trump white house sgchlt wisgchlt how legally damaging are these e-mails? >> joining us is jeff jakobitz good to have you here. >> nathank you. >> you have read the e-mails and are they legally damaging if so? by how much. >> i think we go further of if it is plausible evidence of collusion and whether it is conspiracy i think you have robert mueller
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investigating the criminal aspect here, you have a situation where the intent is very clear to go into the meeting to obtain political dirt on hillary clinton. three people at the meeting appear to be knowledgeable if the information wasn't turned over, which the white house alleges it wasn't, these people leave. why did they leave if they weren't there to get the dirt? >> do you see this, are you talking about federal election law, which says an agent of a foreign government cannot influence a state, federal or local election is that the law? >> i am talking about conspiring to obtain a thing of value from a foreign country. it is a foreign adversary and whether it constitutes election fraud or not >> collusion, which is the word that has been thrown around loosely over the past months is not a crime. there is no such crime as that
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conspiracy, however, can be. i don't want to imput motive donald trump jr. and his brother were rookies in politics could this have been clumsyness or unawareness of what the laws said you could and could not do? >> these are people who are sophisticated businessmen who are surrounded by lawyers. they could have asked the question, should i go to the meeting or not should i attend the meeting with russia, a foreign adversary or not you are saying only three people knew about it it is not clear others did not know about it as well. >> let's go back to this conspiracy idea. collusion, not a legal term
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necessarily. conspiracy to commit election fraud is, and i briefly purr used the statute this morning you look at the idea and legal basis. it seems like it would be on donald june juior and possibly kushner. >> we don't know who the president had lunch with that day? did he have lunch with manafort and discuss the upcoming meet sng d memee meeting? we don't know those facts. when that comes out, we will know more about what that involvement will be. >> you point out they left the woman they met with the attorney tells nbc news she is not associated with the government in the e-mail, they clearly think they are going to meet with someone from the government if the meeting leads to nothing,
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is it still conspiracy >> we don't know what happened at the meeting if you look at chronology, the hacking occurred soon there after. the leaking of the information occurred about a month later we don't know what was discussed at the meeting and whether any agreement came to fruition if, in fact, from the e-mails and "the new york times" story on sunday, it appears xleer tclt the russian government was involved and that donald trump junior knew about that >> the white house has says the president was not aware of this meeting. i believe that's the case. do you find it curious, jeff, that it seems as though. donald trump junior is under no obligation to disclose, as i understand it, all of his meetings with foreign people, because he is not a u.s. government employee, neither is mr. manafort but mr. kushner is. do you find it curious na so many people have forgotten so many meetings with russians? >> that's an inference of guilt.
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one could look at that and say, is there a cover-up involved why are these meetings forgotten? there was one time they were saying that the fbi was telling them not to include all the meetings in the ss-86. >> the disclosure form >> i any it unlikely an fbi agent would say that >> thank you very much, jeff we appreciate your time and help so that news that we have been talking about here for the last 12 minutes did seem to spook investors early today. the dow quickly did drop more than 100 points before rebounding back. right now, down about 8 points that's all will the d.c. drama create a tipping point for this market. with is christie mitcham, the second most famous graduate of davison college after steph curry. >> a long way down after him
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>> have you seen any evidence so far that investors or people beyond the beltway care about all this >> i don't see this as being a market moving event. in terms of what we are hearing today. >> could it become one >> if they were to blow into a criminal investigation and we were to see a real change in the trajectory of the reform they are able to enact, i think yes in the current state, i think know i think the market is going to quickly rotate to what's most important, the start of earnings on friday and yellen tomorrow. >> when you meet with your team and talk to clients, i'm sure this is a subject point but it is not determining your investment allocation at the moment, is it? >> no, it is not one of the biggest things that we have been talking to investors about really recently is something that i think many
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people may be missing. we've obviously had a very calm market in sort of continued ratchet up. below that, what we have really seen is a c change that storms are starting to act quite differently from each other. if we look back to 2012, what we saw was stock correlations that were at about .65. all stocks were kind of moving together if we look at where we have been so far this year, it has been between .2 and .3. what that means is that there are opportunities for active investors and we've seen just that the average active investor actually outperforming in four of the last five months in our own franchise. 70% of our active strategists outperforming their benchmarks by 150 basis points. i think that's the opportunity the opportunity is to drive toward conviction. >> i assume that's what you are telling clients who want to put it in an s&p 500 etf and not
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bother tepo pay fees. >> there are times when fees make sense and some that don't the last few, index funds make sense. this is the time to think about rotation >> four or five months is very nice for the active stockholders >> let me turn to your target date fund complex. they have become extremely popular, specially in 401(k)s. are they a promise that is in danger of not delivering is there a implicit promise that target 2025 fund, target 2040 fund, that the money that i need is going to be there and that i
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can count on it. the truth of the matter is, these are market things. we don't know. >> they are. that's a really important part what target funds offer is easy diversity kags that is age appropriate. they aren't a panacea for undersaving. >> they are not an annuity >> they are not an annuity it is important to recognize the biggest determine nat of how much you have in your 401(k) is how much you put in. do i think people investing in 401(k) fund are better than left to their own devices absolutely do i think it is a recipe in and of itself for success. it has to be combined with other measure that is help individual investors. those are things like auto escalation, increasing savings >> what is auto escalation >> i will. freshman alert as a function of time, you automatically increase the
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deef deferral rates for participants. you start out at 3% and then 4% and then 5% and then the next year, 6% we need to make it easy for people to save more to make it automatic. that's going to make a difference >> when people ask me what's the single smartest move i say bank your raise this year. start at 1% and then go to 2% and by ten years -- >> if you can make it automatic, even better. >> it is simple. it is the best advice. >> pay yourself first. you are worth it, tyler. >> christie, nice to have you with us. good luck to steph curry i hope you can get some of his money. $200 some million. there is an alert in the bond market. three-year notes up for auction. who has the news santelli what's the demand, rick? >> hi, tyler demand at 1:00 eastern was a
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"b," an above-average objection. 24 billion three-year notes, dutch auction yield 1.573. right around 157.5 1.57.5 is where the one issue was. the price, 2.87 to cover $2.87 chasing every dollar that was for sale securities pretty good above average. above average 52.6 on indirect 9.9% versus the 10 action of 8%. the best since halloween of 2016 dealers take 37.6. you know when it is going to get a little more dicey, not tomorrow's tenure, although janet yellen is on tap i am thinking the 30-year, which will hit thursday. after all the question and answer tomorrow, it should be very fascinating to see this total of $56 billion in supply move through considering all of the issues wednesday and thursday that will affect the long maturities.
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sully, back to you >> rick, thank you here is what's coming up on power lunch. the retail rep billions have been wiped out, macy's and jcp we are going to have shocking stats and talk about whether retail destruction has been overdone one stock that's proving to be a little amazon proof, up 35%. in the state of small business, what is the latest data signaling we are going to go to the source and ask a small business owner if he is more or less optimistic than a couple of years ago. your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown
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macy's, jcpenney's and target, all down 30%-45% in 2017 we could have made it longer list brian is taking a deeper dive into retail destruction. >> we know it has been a tough year did you know just how bad it has been look at some of these stats we have put together. these are the market value losses of a few big retailers that you know just this year target has lost just over 12 billion in market value in six months the market cap of target now just $27.5 billion kroger has lost more than $10 billion in market valuation. macy's nearly 4.5 billion. bor barnes & noble has lost $297 million. it's market cap a touch over $500 million consider that. target has lost nearly two macy's worth of value in six months as prices come down, so too do
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valuations some of them in a big way. let's look at the price to sales ratios of some companies that compare their stock price to their total revenues as you do, keep in mind that the average s&p 500 stock trades at 2.1 times sales according to morning star target trades at just 0.4. macy's, 0.3, kroger's, 0.2 jcpenney and barnes & noble. 0.1. amazon, 3.3 times sale for many well-known retailers, the market is pricing in almost no value on their actual business, almost zeer roar fro s does this mean some are a great buy for you right now? we have dana chelsea and olivia
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chen at cowan. jcpenney trading at 0.1 times sales. zero value on their underlying value. is there any value for your clients and our viewers? >> what's that telling you is there is no expectation for some names. a lot of the companies, there was a tipping point in the fourth quarter with online and offline saying, we are only going to be an on liline world, don't think that is realistic. look at the off priceers, the t. t.j.s of t t.j.x. and ross. >> jcpenney's sales are worth
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almost nothing for the valuation of the company like jc penny. do does that mean the selloff has gotten to be too big >> yes, the selloff has gotten to be too big. jc penney is putting in new categories of merchandise. they have the benefit of sephora in the stores. they just announced sales in the second quarter is significantly improved from the first. retail overall, i'm not saying that is going to be that much better we have a tough first half and cat alist for the second half. >> oliver, what are the qualities of the company that is will survive and thrive in retail and the qualities of the ones that won't? >> how we're thinking about it is that clients should focus on deep value stocks or super
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premium? >> what does deep value mean it means $4.99 rotisserie chickens and name brands at 40%-60% off at t.j. and ross and walmart. customers love stores. if you can offer a great value, those are stocks that have good long-term potential. we like luxury goods when you go to louis vuitton or tiffany, there us a lot of trust. we view that as unamazonable as we zoom out, there are three major factors in terms of the mall physical store traffic down 5%-10% secondly, tremendous digital disruption online sales 10%-40% of sales. lastly, this profound transformation in the way consumers shop they are all about social media.
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40% of usage online mobile phones it is the real shift in the purpose of a store i agree with dana, a lot about merging bricks and clicks. it is a lot about using the store in a new way, completely new way. there us a real revolution happening here amazon is a key catalyst >> oliver, thank you very much dana, we thank you as well appreciate it. small business watching washington closely it seems to be losing a little faith that anything will get done inside the latest survey data and the inside view fromomne seo who runs a small business, that's next.
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additional 2.7 air bag inflateers in ford, nissan and mazza vehicles they are already linked to 17 deaths and more than 180 injuries worldwide federal prosecutors asking a judge to allow the master moomio the 2013 bridgewater scandal to avoid prison time because of his cooperation. david willstein faces 21-27 months in prison he will be sentenced tomorrow. the fbi will continue to be operating out of its deteriorating headquarters the gsa says it simply doesn't have the money to make the move. thousands of police officers gathering in new york city to pay their respects to officer moo miosotis familia she was shot in the head while
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sitting in her mobile command on july fourth. that's the news update back to you. let's take a look at some of the movers this hour rent-a-center popping after receiving a takeover offer from vintage capital. home builders moving lower as barclay's downgrades the number of names in the sector some of them heading lower oil stocks, some of them, at lease, among the leaders in the s&p. range resources, national oil well, new field and devon. a amicus therapeutics saying they will find approval for a rare disease drug sooner than expected some are watching washington very closely they seem to be losing faith kate is live with more >> main street's mood has taken a turn for the worse as the gridlock in washington continues. small business optimism took a hit dropping 103.9, the largest
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month over month decline since november and the lowest level since that same month. the index saw a huge post-election pop, 105.8, last december the biggest drop was those who expected the economy to improve and higher real sales. this echos the fall we saw in march when the house failed to pass their plan to repeal and replace obamacare. they used pointed language to describe the uncertainty in washington saying this drop is due to the mess in washington and adding that while progress is being made, it is also being poorly communicated. the two biggest issues of health care and stacks reform are stuck in the bowels of washington's politics the group's chief economist said this could be problematic for main street if it does continue. the top three issues, taxes, government regulations and
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finding skilled labor. that labor issue continues to be a real struggle for those companies looking to hire and expand why don't we hear from a small business owner, one with clients not only around here but around the world we have the founder of gm nonstick coatings. good to see you again. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. you said, i was a clinton supporter. however, president trump is in office i'm going to be optimistic you have spent money to expand you are very close to the consumer because your company makes nonstick item for kitchen aid, oster and some other have you noticed any downturn, rattle in your business since all this political stuff has taken over the headlines >> yes in fact, at this point last year, i was up 25% year over year in sales and earnings, which was great. right now, we are just basically over flat in sales earnings. that's a big negative surprise
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as you pointed out, i was against trump and i heard about this amazing economy and 3%-4% gdp. i have spent millions of dollars expanding my facilities. i have hired dozens of people but the consumer doesn't seem to be there in the way myself and a lot of my large clients expect i am not sure why. >> is that here or internationally? >> it is global. i look at myself completely. i sell in the states i sell overseas. overall, we are just over flat >> so break down regionally when you say your sales are flat. they are up where and down where? they are not all flat all over the world? >> they are flat mainly in the usa. probably 85% of my sales are to multibillion dollar american corporations so that's where we are seeing a lot of the weakness. obviously, president trump i think got elected as this outsider who was going to fix health care and taxes. so far, we haven't seen that
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i think it is fair to say there is a question mark there >> i am rooting for him. we are all in this together. the honeymoon period is over the language where people are trying to cast blame, that's nonsense mr. trump, to his base and the people like me are hoping he gets something good for the economy. if he actually goes down to this d.c. business as usual, i think it will be catastrophic from a confidence perspective in that sense, all of our interests are aligned right now. >> what are your big multinational american companies telling you as to why they are buying less from you or not buying more? what are they not seeing in demand >> it is obviously about the consumer every day, 40 million people in this country use my product. we are kind of the canary in the coal mine, a good proxy probably
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for main street. a lot of my big clients say we are shipping "x" amount of product but they are kind of sitting in warehouses. the question is, is it because people are waiting to see these big victories with taxes going down and things like health care getting fixed? the aca, like you pointed out, i was for it last year i always knew there was problems with it. i really hope that president trump can get the cost down. we are getting killed with health care costs. my question is, is it going to happen i understand there is going to be something coming through the senate this week i am crossing my fingers it is actually a bipartisan fix. so much of what we are seeing is hysteria on the left and the right. it is nonsense i think we have never been more set to have a credible third party in this country. there are fan it is tick ideas on the right and left. >> we'll see if that happens
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welcome back hedge funds off to a fairly strong start in 2017 thanks in large part to their position in emerging markets seema modi live with that story. emergent markets continue to be a hedge fund. they produce returns doubled that of developed market strategies in june for the sixth month in a row china focused fund over 17% in
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2017 followed by hedge funds invested in ipd ndia which are 19% this year. they say most of the fund are primarily equity driven so their performance in china and india highly correlated to the performance in their respective markets. not all fund did well. russia had a dismal june and brazil, which had been a popular position for funds, given the recent political turmoil,their second quarter returns were the lowest across the entire hedge fund industry. a possible catalyst for emerging markets is coming up next week when the united states and china are expected to unveil their 100 day plan on trade. one specific issue u.s. officials have privately criticized is the chinese requirement for a joint venture partner for u.s. firms investing in china
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alley ali baba have no similar terms for investing in the united states >> thank you, seema. the senate has delayed the august recess. where is larry kudlow to cheer this on. they are delaying the senate's august recess to provide more time to work on legislation and get health care reform done and move on to tax reform. a lot of people have been calling for this for weeks an weeks and weeks. now, they apparently appear to be proceed ing with that. >> the house is going to be a lot more difficult to convince there are more than 50 local house races, many of them in california and some other big states that are deemed as bein competitive. this will be a more difficult
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squa sway to convince the house >> one of the prominent men said he was going to dominate the business >> michelle, hats off to you, because you saw this coming. >> you didn't have to say that >> dalian wanda, ceo who brought the amc and spend $3.5 billion to buy hollywood's production company, legendary entertainment and most recently fritried to by dick clark's production. he bought big trophy buildings in london, new york and helped the art market buying a $28 million picasso. he took on disney's shanghai theme park and lots of secondary parks in chinese cities. he said his parks would surround and kill disney like a pack of
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wolves instead, the wolf of debt is now at his door. he sold off most of his theme park business in a $9 billion deal it is a privately held company, wanda. it's debt levels are unknown regulatory filings suggest that the parent company's debts could top $100 million moody's is down grading the commercial property unit to junk status they had hoped to relist that which they had taken private now that they have paid down debt. it is unclear how much debt that entity, how much it has to the parent company >> it's a mess >> it's a big mess again, one of these big sort of classic expansions, trophy building, hollywood. >> all the signs. >> a hedge fund manager a couple of weeks ago once told me, i will short any company where the ceo buys a big yacht >> this guy bought the whole
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company. now, he is buying a yacht company. >> hoiswho is the buyer >> another chinese company there is some de the that wanda will continue to hold but then some revenues that may flow back it is two chinese entities that the government is bound to be involved >> the journal is according that dalian wanda is going to loan the money to the company to buy the company. >> does the buyer own a yacht? >> they certainly don't own the yacht company. >> i asked him when he bought amc theaters, he said he was willing to overpay he was going to go on an acquisition spree. all of these things, so many things that just set off alarms with us left and right he said, no, no, no, every acquisition is done with very, very clear view of the balance sheet, et cetera, et cetera. >> what we don't know,
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obviously, at that time, the government was behind it, supporting it, he probably had endless fund now, they are clearly not. you just don't know how committed the government is to this company and, therefore, what its true fate will be >> also, the phrase of complex deals and chinese dealings always goes together still ahead, we are counting you down to the big reveal on cnbc's top state for business, scott cohn in the mystery state with another devious clue. no, it is not a fishing expedition amera'toste ics p atfor business the next state on our countdown is coming right up
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it's been a long day and a long ride in is a serious study and a competitive one this year. this state is separated from the state before it, number three, minnesota, by just one point here is state number two georgia, the peach state, is number two this year with 1,616 out of 2,500 points. they finished in eighth place last year. their best category, the economy. the best all-around in the nation according to our study. state finances are as strong as they get growth is solid. georgia finishes near the top for workforce and infrastructure with low test scores and relatively low spending, georgia falls short in education and comes in in the bottom half for quality of life. georgia is adding jobs at a steady pace in its top ranked economy but the recovery has been stubborn. even know, georgia's
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unemployment rate is just above the national average their individual income tax rate is 6%. the corporate tax is 6%. the top state and local sales tax is 8%. their largest employer is walmart. the largest industry is finance and insurance. >> georgia was america's top state for business in 2014 not back to the top this year but awfully close to it. so where am i? america's top state for business here is your last diabolical hint get the point. see what you think about that. chew on that for a little while and on the closing bell today, we will reveal finally which state i am in. we will talk with the winning state governor and you will be able to see where your state stacks up. we rank all 50 states at top stat
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topstates.cnbc.com >> i think he is in washington state. >> definitely guam >> it is green there it is green. >> that's an interesting idea. georgia, quality of life, 28 some of my georgia friends may be a little bit upset about th humidity >> no. we don't look at weather of quality of life because it is too subjective we deliberately never done that. we look at healthcare and the healthcare of the population, that's something where georgia repeatedly suffer. we look at air quality we look at things like that and attractio attractions. we look at inclusiveness, but you know that's an issue that we look at as well. yeah, that hurts
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that hurts the thing with georgia where they do well is they have a very strong work force and a lot of workers in a weird sort of way of the fact that it took them a long time to come out of the recession, gave them a lot of availabilities >> thank you very much, we'll see you in the closing be el in am right, thank you, scott cohn. >> she's b >> that name and your daily doses of street talk, next so new touch screens... and biometrics. in 574 branches. all done by... yesterday. ♪ ♪ banks aren't just undergoing a face lift. they're undergoing a transformation. a data fueled, security driven shift in applications and customer experience. which is why comcast business delivers consistent network performance and speed across all your locations.
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talk that we believe you need to know about first up is exxon mobile analysts say exxon mobile got a leading position in the near term surprise environment and increase p increa increase petro chemicals it is not just gas and they got a lot of stuff if you like the call, you got to take notice of something analysts highlight that most of the big oil company like exxon are still trading crude oil of 60 to 65 a shell remaining optimistic on prices you need to buy in on oils going up to buy into that call we are along way of 60 next up is baxter the animalysts say what kept th on the sideline is evaluations now they're getting more bullish
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on stocks. they increase the target price to 70 bucks to 65. it is straighter than 60, it had to do something. it is a 60% years to date. >> a third stock, your small cap call of the day. hms holdings why it is a texas base insurance management company cancco canccordgen genuity unique access and customer base, margins at hms will improve as well >> it is incredibly volatile >> finally, a two for one the luxury fashion company coach and micha michael kors, analysts of coach
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of gaining momentum deteriorating. >> joining us now is our analyst who made those calls you have a $59 price target on coach, how do you think it get there? >> we like coach because of the strength of its management team and the power of innovation of execute. a rare transformation in this sector, we like it because we think that coach is going to continue to innovate it is all about 1941 and there are such a runway for that business we see the opportunity for the outlet business to inflect and then we see kate spade as a nice add on which will tip coach to long-term and put coach in a class of double digit growers that command from multiples. >> michael kors you don't see it doing well as all? we don't
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estimates are going to come in below st streak, following a disappointment of 2017 and a big reset year there, our thesis based on low visibilities to comps and second, our view that operating margins are in structural decline >> explain innovation in retail. is that a way to say they're getting the fashion right or wrong? that's usual lip whly when you buying a brand bike coach and michael kors, they either hit it up with consumer s or they don'. is that what you mean? that's exactly what coach is doing. you look at the percentage of handbag sold over $400.55% of sales had been 30% two years ago. with better product, they're better to sell more at high
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may soon disappear from the air wave and the nfl could take the biggest hit. why now? and what it means for the advertising world? "power lunch" starts right now >> all right, thanks kyle, checking your markets right now, indexes are not doing a whole lot. if you are just joining us, oh, another quiet summer market day, you would be wrong look at the dow, it was up triple digits and then donald trump jr. tweeted out the dow was 100 points a couple of minutes a bit o f a market come back the dow at 24 points right now that's not one yet that should impact the market. >> we are waiting for the white house's reaction to donald trump jr. 's e-mail that was released.
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sarah hucklebee sanders is about to brief the press kayla tausche. >> reporter: the president's son did take a meeting with a russian attorney who's described to him as a russian government attorney with its soul purpose of obtaining and in criminating information about hillary clinton who's opposing his father and the presidential race at that point. fast forward to today where the president's son himself tweeted the e-mail chain that seems to confirm the fact that he was in fact promised the allure of these in criminating e-mails and i want to read to you from the e-mails that were there. he said the broker for the meeting said quote, "this is a
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high level and sensitive information but as part of russia and as government support for mr. trump helped along by two acquaintances. donald trump jr. relied, "if this is what you say, i love it." donald trump jr. did not take that meeting early june of last year the attorney he was meeting with said to nbc news earlier today, she did not have the information and that she believes it was the trump's family who wanted it in the first place. we are waiting official words from the white house exactly how they'll respond to the e-mail of the new exchange >> the deputy, sarah hucklebee sanders said, it was a short meeting and no follow up and nothing of substance and the president did not know about it until a couple of as ago
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guys >> all right, we'll way to hear what she had to say. thank you, kayla >> and steve leisman is monitoring that in new york. >> reporter: thank you very much, a preview of the big event of janet yellen is speaking tomorrow the governor here in manhattan is talking about balance sheet reduction and the next balance sheet hike "if the data continue to confirm strong labor market and firming economic activity, i believe it would be appropriate soon commence the gradual." we talked to somebody in the audience today, she did not rule out july
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september is the best bet because she did say in her comments she wants to see more data and by the way, that question of the third rate hike happening is up to whether or not the data is supporting president trump announced yesterday to nominate randal randal quarles, he's a lawyer by trading. he's in a private equity now of a company called cynosure group. >> we don't know what he thinks. he said in the past that he supports modifications to dodd franklin and not the wholesale gutting of it as president trump indicated. here is what he said in the wall street journal about interest rates.
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quote, "years of near-zero interest rates have led to a rise in speculative positions across a wide range of asset classes. that would have been a meaningful comment if the feds was not already raising rates. what this is going to mean of the current makeup of the fed and policy, michelle >> thank you, steve. breaking news, the senate is delaying its august recess >> eylan has that. >> reporter: in a statement that majority leader mcconnell says lawmakers need more time to work on healthcare and a backlog through nomination he blamed democrats for this delay. he said that there have been a complete lack of cooperation that's why they need to take the step all of this comes after gop, lawmakers have held a press
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conference this afternoon calling leadership to hashtag and cancel august. that was even before the latest revelations about donald trump jr. 's e-mail potential contact with people from the russian government >> the process is going to follow out we'll let their committee of jurisdiction of the appropriate folks of the department of justice to sought out. that's the thing that we do not need to be distracted by no word yet on whether or not that'll happen, guys >> thank you very much, eylan. we may hear from senator mcconnell shortly and if we do, we'll interrupt the conversations here and we'll listen in. he can put this one in the win column, we give you some credit there and he's joined by chuck
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baby br gabriel as well. larry, what is this signal to you of healthcare that he needs more time and have a vote next week, what's going on here is this a sign of trouble? >> yes, yes, absolutely. they're just nowhere on this the arguments are every medicaid in particular. that's a huge argument and i will go on details later, what they had in my opinion is not very good. the argument about the cruise amount which would allow the company -- that's correct, that's another big argument. there is a crazy thing in there, somebody was walking me through it who knows details from the senate side. you get more money, 90% of the cause if you are 27-year-old and able bodies. so you live at home until you are 26, you are covered. the next year you live home and you are 27-year-old and your
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able body, you will get 97% of the medicaid payment guaranteed by the federal government and state. if ru dyou are disabled, you ar only going to get 55%. that's nuts. i said so many times, republican party, we are a generous country, we'll cover the ill and the preconditions and -- just say it and follow through. it will be a lot cheaper than what you are going at now. they got to fix that and fix medicaid and choice. the amendment is very important. >> you are talking about different ways the state is disper dispersed. the individuals that they expanded medicaid when they get reimbursed 90% >> so it is totally, down from 100. it incentivize coverages of people who are very healthy verses people who are not.
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>> yes >> i think we talked about this and so many times. these tax credits and so forth >> you give it to the people who need it, that's all. >> when you read all the stories it is about how they're cutting medicaid and they go straight to cutting medicaid of the disabled the first antidote is somebody cannot leave the house and they're cutting it for people who are not disabled >> no, no, wait a minute, if you are able body, you are living at home and you are covered until you are 26-year-old, the 27th year assuming that you are still able body. you qualify under the income standard >> exactly for medicaid >> you will get 90% of the federal subsidy >> you go down from 100 to 90. the problem is, if you are ill
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and have precondition problem and elderly and poor, you may whine up that get credits and subsidies. >> let me turn to chuck gabriel and get him to jump in on this the news that just hit the website not long ago that one of the contentious items here is what was going to happen in the health bill of the surtax of wealthy individuals on investment income. it looks like they're not going to move that out and increase the payroll or would retain the higher payroll tax on such individuals, i believe it is .9% on that. does that change the political calculus in any way. it changes the budget scoring. >> certainly changes the budget scoring and giving them more money to play with in terms of trying to buy more votes and moderates and among those medicaid expansions state, senators but i think all of this
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including the news that they're going to delay the august recess, the ambient air quality go got more on a forward looking base all of it shows me that they do pay attention to optics. the notion about basically enacting tax cuts on the back of those who have been forced into this medicaid expansion really was very, very worrisome i kind of like it and i know la r a larry had been calling it for sometime we got three weeks before august and bearing down a game of chicken. you know by having an open ended ticket to stay in washington into august may actually get these guys to move >> the house is still going home lets turn that to our top story, guys >> lets change our top story of donald trump jr. and these
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e-mails. there are many in the left and media in the left. this smoking gun that may lead the president to lose his job as the president of the united states do you believe that? chuck? >> do i believe that no, not at all this is to me is just another day as the trump's hard term >> the term smoking done has been used and this document, this is what they needed >> there are people involved >> i think the attorney with who donald trump was guided by the british reporter and intelligence official, she's basically came out and denied strongly of the backdrop of that meeting. this does not smell to me of smoking gun at all it is certainly something to excite the folks on the intelligence committee or really trying to gain more tractions and building momentum here
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>> this is just swamp stuff. the honey pot woman had no connection with the russian government and what manafort is reading is e-mails and jared walked out of the meeting and there is no information. he had no connection of the russian government and the guy in london is a crazy guy who tweets his own pictures all the time it had nothing do with the russian government this stuff had no meeting what so ever and even the new york times story of the paragraphs 15 or 16 acknowledged there was no clear connection one more point with this summer recess, that's the news, okay they got to do a tax cut they got to do the business tax cuts three easy pieces, we fought for this so hard i am going down tomorrow, speaker lunch inside the west wing and i am grateful to make this case.
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now you get rid of the recess, now, hammer out a business tax cut that'll pick the economy up and 2% to 3% and solve the real wage problem if you want to put a doubling of the standard deduction, fine rep re-patriotuation they got to have a plan in august which by the way, the white house hinted at yesterday. the legislative affairs guy said we are not going to wait in september, we'll do it in august good, i am sorry that healthcare sucks all the oxygen out in the air. >> take all of that enthusiasm in washington. >> thanks a lot chuck. >> thank you >> earnings may still be the number one factor for your
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money. will earning season takes stock higher or finally bringing us down a top performer mutual funds, how is he doing and what stock is he picking? >> we'll find out. is amazon getting too big of the backlash possibly coming it is a good question. we'll have answers on "power lunch. our thinkorswim tradingfom aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. see options data like never before. with thinkorswim only at td ameritrade.
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lets take a look at mitch mcconnell speaking right now of all the blame of the recess. >> we don't have enough time to address all of these issues between now and the originally anticipated august recess. so we'll be here the first two weeks of august. >> of course, we remember the promises made when obamacare was sold if you like your doctor, you c you can keep your doctor or your plan family reduction of $2,500 none of which is proven to be true based on the experience of last seven years. i think it is fair to say that obamacare have been a failed experience we have two choices, to try to do better to stabilize the market and bring premiums down and protect people with preexisting conditions and to
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put medicaid of the safety net program on the poor on a sustainable physic sustainable fiscal path or what senator schumer believe it is a better course, no reform and no changes and bail out of insurance companies buy throwing billions of dollars at them without reforms. we think we have a better plan we invite our democratic colleagues to join us. there is no restrictions we invite them to come up with a better product of the failure of obamacare, much less bailing out insurance companies by throwing billions and dollars of them of this prop up but failed experiment >> that was john cornyn following the senate majority mitch mcconnell discussing the fact that the senate will stay in session until deep into august to take care of a variety
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of legislative imperatives and including most particularly of the healthcare debate. they expect a new bill on thursday to be introduced. mr. cornyn advised democrats to join in on discussions and amendments and so forth. senate is going to stay in session because they got a lot of backlogs that's the latest on washington on a busy day of news out of the nation's capitol brian. >> back to the market with blue apron, falling again today, they're down 25% of its price. one analyst says it is getting much worse a sale rating and wait for it of a $2 price target on blue apron, that's more of a 70% drop from here it is not a technology company
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it is labor intensive. in other words, if you bought it out of the ipo, you made $0. >> joining us now, it is $2 price market and losses. >> the issue plagued some of the biggest ipo in history >> 40% of ipo's trade is under water six months out it is the time frame that all s allows -- snap lock up expires in weeks >> a big catalyst of decline snap has seen some of those from the latest today from morgan stanley of the investment
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banking side was the lead under writer of the deal 43% from just three months ago they said quote, "we have been wrong about snap ability to innovate and improve its product this year. the firm has a curious short history covering the company as business insider pointed out morgan stanley had to issue a correction with its first note altering its model but not $28 price target, guys >> lesley picker, thank you ver much >> lets bring in our kevin landon of the ceo of firsthand management it is good to have you here >> thanks, it is good to be here with you what do you tell of the founders or the executives of going public and whether or not it is a good idea. >> first thing to know, if you have problems or having trouble
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getting tractions, going public solve none of those problems it is great today dream particularly for your early investors. really, you don't want to go public until you are sure you are ready. >> we ask is racing to go public is a bad news? mark cuban thinks that companie right now are waiting too long i want you to listen to what he said and we'll talk about it after. >> companies are going public too late and so ten years ago or 20 years ago and you went public in our fourth or fifth year existence during your hyper growth phase, you are getting people all excited about you and markets and the general public excited about you. now, you are going public in your tenth or eleventh years, your hyper growth is gone. we are waiting for uber and it
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is gone. >> kevin, with e ae are still w for uber does mark cuban have a point >> you take a lot of the siz out of to story. sure, i can remember being able to buy ipos that. >> reporter: -- >> you cannot still have fundamental problems of your business you cannot be ready to miss a quarter as soon as you come out of the rate or burning cash and not showing profits. you know, the market is pretty demanding and they want to see growth but they want to see crazy things like positive margins. >> we began the segment of points out of 40% of ipos trade below there. are there and most of the poem who are watching this program probably cannot get in of the initial offer price, they come in later that day or week when
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the price may have popped up of all of the enthusiasm. how can you discriminate between the ones that likely to have stay in power and the ones that are not. >> that's kind of the big question, right? >> what do you look for. >> well, first of all, a minute ago public is a stock like any other that you can win or lose in it. by the way, the number ought to be 50%, if the press is right, half of them should be winners and half is losers so, yeah i would say certainly if it looks like a strong ipo and a huge pop, maybe you don't want to chase it but, look at it like any other publicly traded stock. what do you know of the business and do you like the business and what's your edge in picking that stock and spot thag one t one ia winner you should be assume thing thate picked just the right time that's not always the case a little desperation on behalf
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of their investors and those are to be avoided anyway you should be as selected as any publicly traded stock. >> kevin landis, thank you >> is amazon getting too big and not just dominating retail any more, it is in every aspect of life itself. could there be an amazon backlash similar to what walmart 'lce saw wel debate that coming up on "power lunch."
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everyone is talking about amazon today because it is amazon's prime day very early this morning amazon told cnbc millions of prime members were already shopping at record levels. more than a hundred pounds in deals were rolling out some of the heavily discounted products that are already selling out including the feela color gel pens, they are gone and the jungle book and others are sold out.
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the men's eterna watch, $545 if you want it. the echo devices are among the early top seller and that was the same last year the price are among the lowest that we have seen. already 12.3 of u.s. household owns an echo product that leaves a lot of opportunities for amazon ke the deals started two hours earlier, it lasts until july 17th those alexa only deals, they found of 47 of those products are available and 66% of them have grocery or consumable products their average discount is about 33% if you order those through
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the alexa voice system it is all key elements to amazon groceries and keeping you order through voice command. what's the sales goal for today? it could go to 35% to 56% or between $860 million to a billion dollars on this crime day. thank you very much. we want to look at the power of amazon and whether it is just simply gotten too big. jeff manny is a wire contributor and founder of the international senator for law and economics, he's pro-amazon and our professor of law of cleveland state university, he's more critical of amazon >> i am doing well, how are you? >> anthony, gentlemen, good to
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have you with us let me put the ball on your court first. you were suspicious that amazon may have gotten a little too big for its own good could be vulnerable to government action at some point, why do you say that >> yeah, so let me say this first, i don't think any kind of antitrust actions is any time soon for a few different reasons. i think it is not i mplausible right now there are three ways of looking at amazon or three perspectives on amazon right now. quite a lot of people and certainly the right in american politics and probably much of the public right now takes the view that this is a firm that really has done nothing more than provide high quality
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service at low prices. it is done exactly what it says it should do on the other side, there is probably fair but small and growing voice on the progressive left saying actually this is a real big firm, so big and so potentially dangerous that we need to rethink our antitrust generally and then there is quite a lot. >> i want to come back to your left and right and political dynamic here we have some breaking news, i need to go to washington where president trump responded to donald trump jr. e-mails. >> reporter: sarah hucklebee sanders read this statement from the president. >> my son is a high quality
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person and i applaud his transparency >> she says she stands by her comments from yesterday that there is no evidence of collusion between the trump campaign officials and the russian government despite the disclosure of those e-mails appeared to be the clearest link yet. >> well, that's news flash, the president thinks his son is a high quality person. that's great kayla, thank you very much >> he colors it in a left verses right tonality here. i like to get your reaction to that and whether you think amazon has or runs the risk of either a consumer backlash or some sort of government intervention about way it does its business, what do you say? >> jeff. >> well, i think it is not
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really a left or right issue it is really an economics verses politics issue we learned in the economics literature and we have known for several decades that size does not correlate of any competitive harm and the kind of harm that we worry about the fact that amazon maybe big is not in itself of any a indication of any problem. typically the kind of things they point to are not the kind of things that antitrust really worries itself about so to the question whether it is likely to lead to antitrust case, i do think there are some poll titics in that. >> i thought the government is loo i c likely to go after amazon.
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forget the other stuff has amazon's real disruption come in the fact where they seemingly change capitalism. what i mean by that is we have gone from a business motive, most people want to make money, amazon does not seem to be interested in profiting, it seems to be interested in selling. is that the truth of disruption that amazon voiced in us >> i am sure amazon is vest intere interested in making money >> i think they have a long-term strategy which is rare for americans. >> 20 years. >> as you pointed out. the web services certainly is making money and i think that they probably expect that their size is apart of the strategy for how they'll make money >> yeah. >> if i could. >> you need to take a small piece of a lot of transactions and ultimately that'll be quite
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proper >> is that anthony trying to get in anthony, you covered walmart which was criticized for its size do you see any parallels or any lessons that amazon wants to avoid the backlash that we saw against walmart? >> well, i do see some parallels. one is that companies that based their business models offering a little price are heading towards ruthlessness they don't have room to give to their employees and public officials and they incline to bully. the other is the whole notion of disruption before this silicon valley and company existed or amazon, walmart was a great disrupter of america's industry >> yes, it was other companies had to adapt to
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or go out of business. they are incline to see people who criticized them or oppose them as people who just did not get it they're opposing progress in the future and therefore, they're in harsh terms usually. to some extenextent, that appli amazon today >> i remember walmart was the big embracer of technology in a b big, big way and that's what helped them get their prices lower and a lot of small businesses went out of business but, jeff, people were paying lower price and those smaller businesses could not be competitive. that's the nature of an economy, right? >> things changed. >> right so two things, first of all, you are absolutely right with walmart and you are right that amazon is pursuing similar strategies it is lodgistic and much like
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walmart is lower cause than anyone could match amazon is a platform and they have two million merchants who are selling through the platform they are making the lodgistics of the economy of scale and technology they develop in the background available for other retailers. now, that does not help a retailer who still are selling offline on a main street in a small town some where, it helps retailer who sells through amazon >> you raised a better point that indeed this is how the economy progresses you do have disruptions and we had a whole series of them for all of recorded human history and we get over them overtime. that does not mean that the disruptions are well, disruptive and there are things that we should do to mitigate the consequences of that, we should not try to stop the disruption
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>> we have to wrap it up here. chris, i take jeff's point, size in of itself does not correlate necessarily of any practices i cannot think of any small companies brought up of an antitrust. >> chris, you get the last word. >> jeff and i know each other well and we are differ on a lot of things. but, he and i actually agree on a lot and the last thing i would like to say is if there is a left/right dichotomy, there is also the middle one perspective, it does seem like amazon has gotten big only by doing the right thing. it has mostly competed by being
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an extraordinary innovator and especially in logistics. >> i am sorry chris seager and jeff mann. thank you, guys. the tcw new america equity funds of 22% this year's strategy, stay chyer stay big cap -- joseph is here on more. >> here is the bad news, we may have to kick you offset. you don't owe any stocks i thought that's not allowed >> certainly not allowed for "power lunch." >> well, i am investing and in in order to out perform, you have to think different and better our strategy is focusing on
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predictable and cash businesses. >> do you own amazon >> because it is too red hot >> everybody is talking about it and everybody owns it. if we want to out perform, we cannot be where every one else is we have to find better ideas that are less popular and become much stronger. >> if one sheep onruns in the other direction, there is a risk going on your own. and why do you find in value of mo marvel, no the movie >> we are looking at businesses that are predictable and run by approvement management teams the fang stock today, those businesses are going to become less valuable overtime
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if you have free cash flows now, then your business is going to be sustainable and going to continue to grow and your stock is going to continue to grow >> i have asked a couple of fang analysts have you analyze the stock when interest rates are rising? you have the benefit of an analyst when interest rates are going down so time and multiples don't matter >> in theory when interest rates are zero, multiples can go to the sky. they have no idea what's coming and interest rates ever go up. it is going to be beyond their control. they're not going to know what's hitting them they're not going to know. all of these multiples are going to come under pressure in you generate cash flows and here and today, those businesses are going to continue do go. cash flows are physical. the it is the only financial character that's moving stocks >> what you do is not easy how many assets? >> about $75 million
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>> that's small. >> okay. you restlaun a highly concentra portfolio. it is going to get harder and you are going to get some money comiing in it is going to get harder to do what you do because of the position that you have >> i think it is a fair point but you no e know we are invest businesses of mid to large cap, they have the capacity to absorb more capital as we grow. >> it is the way to go you have to be convicted if you are running an active fund today. today everyone wants to be an etf. if you want to truly invest, you have to be concentrated in your best ideas and one of the reasons we have been successful over the last few years is because we owned great
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positions. >>, we are staying clear, threats for amazon is significant and it is tough to know which retailers will win out of time. >> thanks joseph good to have you on. >> coming up, another mystery chart, the best performing on the dow, it was the last twelve months, we'll give you the name and some analysis, coming up on trading nation you always pay
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did you know the best performing stocks in the dow this year is boeing? >> that's right, lets talk to ken. yourating. it is kind of like a chicken sandwich this hole means keep it because it is going to go higher or don't buy it >> i would say the ladder. i am not buying boeing at this level, i think there is incremental risk and clearly the stocks had a big catch up here in the last few months and the first of the year. i am not chasing and going at
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these levels >> so do we sell it? if one of our viewers own it, do i sell it or keep a hold of it >> you got veryknow, it looks like economic um provement coming you've got defense improving i would argue concerns longer term about the free cash flow upside and there's a nice flow because of the dividend and cash flow. >> it's not at an imminent risk of coming down it's just going to sit there. >> that's what i would say again, chicken sandwich. you hate to go down that path but that's my current thinking. >> denis, what's your view on boeing >> my view on boeing is -- ken's the expert in boeing i'm not the expert but the options guy. i'll go with that. the options right now are very expensive in boeing and i always look at a stock like boeing up 35% for the year where the options are very expensive and they should be expensive because if you own boeing you have money to spend on insurance so we're
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seeing a premium in the options going into earnings on july 26 they built out their services. that's being grown organically and ken knows more than me on this, but the miss on the a-380 was a good miss to make. the options market is saying it's a great stock, hold on to it and buy insurance on it and a lot of people seem to be doing that. >> dennis and ken, thank you both very much appreciate it. for more trading nation head to our website tradingnation.cnbc.com. >> coming, a big blow for the nfl. a couple of big advertisers sitting on the sidelines this season >> and now your trading nation stats of the day and a word from our sponsor. >> technicians often look to wedge patterns as cat lifts for stocks a bullish wedge occurs within an uptrend and consists of two converging trend lines slanted downward a break of the upper trend line is considered a bullish signal conversely, a bearish wedge occurs within a downtrend and
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yes, i like that all right. two big advertisers, you should see brian's jokes off camera they are good. even better the ones he uses on cameras, by the way. two big advertisers will not be seen during nfl this season, viagra and cialis, which for years had been big spenders. meg terrell joins us now with more why? >> it has to do with patent expirations. if you're a football fan you'll be hearing less. >> you're a doctor, about viagra. >> reporter: the erectile dysfunction drug ads may disappear as they face the
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exclusivity agreement in the u.s. according to industry publication advertising age, viagra hasn't aired a national tv ad since may hand the brand didn't participate in up fronts for the coming season meaning potentially big bucks lost viagra was a top pharma brand for the nfl with about $32 million in spending last season. pfizer doesn't comment on future marketing plans for competitive reasons but doesn't stop there another well-known brand in the space cialis as that, drug, too faces generic competition. another $20 million in ad spending representing up to $50 million at risk of being erased from the nfl's ad revenue, and the nfl declined to comment thon. >> why would they advertise on the nfl? >> the average viewership is 50-year-old men. >> in the category of news some of our viewers could use, the
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price of viagra with the generic competition might go from one to what >> typically when you have a number of generic copies coming into the marketplace you see the price collapsing by as much as 90% or even more, so we were looking up the price this morning. for six tablets, it was more than $300. >> so was i. >> move on. >> this looks like more than $300 for cash pay. >> honestly, first off, it's probably good news because every commercial break you're like, okay, this is getting a little repetitive some sort of fast food chain, some sort of alcohol company and the viagra company and you're thinking is that any wonder after the first two, okay, and then -- but seriously. that's a big revenue who is going to. >> fill it >> that's it. >> all right >> thank you. >> chef? >> yeah. they will fill it. they will absolutely they probably got -- >> "power lunch." >> commercial marketing. >> we ed ane commercial right
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and we've recovered and then some may be legal,maybe not illegal but really dumb on his part. >> does anybody say let's not buy a car, there's some e-mails? i don't think that's going to happen. >> the market realizes that this is all going to be with us for a long, long time. >> "closing bell" starts right now. hello. welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> we're in a mood today i'm bill griffeth. breaking story as you've heard today, president trump's son, donald jr., releasing an e-mail chain that shows him taking a meeting with a russian government attorney who could have provided damaging information on hillary clinton we will head to capitol hill for the reaction to that story in washington we've already seen a big reaction or we did early on on wall
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