tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC July 19, 2017 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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good morning, a f.a.n.g. tastic rally, the nasdaq rallies as tech roars back to life big blue is seeing red today. we'll tell you what's driving ibm lower. plus breaking deal news. discovery communications reportedly in merger talks with scripps networks we have instant analysis right up it's wednesday july 19, 2017 "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange"
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on cnbc. i'm courtney reagan in for sara eisen. >> i'm dominic chu in for wilfred frost. >> we have taylor swift to start us off >> you're along for the ride it will be a fantastic day let's check what's happening with the markets we are seeing at least a little bit of perhaps recovery maybe some stability there in some way. the s&p futures indicated to open up by two points. the dow jones average down by 1 point right now. the nasdaq again showing signs of gains we were working on eight straight days. we got that yesterday. so now we'll see if we can build on some of those record highs for the major indices. the ten-year, we are seeing movement there we have seen a little bit of a trend higher eventually. now you can see 2.27 the last trade there. that down trend in yields for the past week or two is now at least showing a little bit of
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stabilization. we'll see if that stays the case as well. also on the corporate side of things, shares of ibm under pressure the company reporting its 21st consecutive quarter of declining revenues the tech giant says revenues came in at 19$19.3 billion in te second quarter that's down again more than 4% from a year ago and below analyst expectatioexpectations the company beat on the bottom line for profits earning $2.97 a share. one of those corporate stories that we will talk a lot today in trade today. so three deal stories breaking overnight discovery communications is reportedly in merger talks with scripps networks terms of the deal not immediately known. while there's no guarantee the two will reach an agreement, both stocks are moving higher. 9.4% for discovery scripps networks higher by almost 15% mccormick is buying reckitt
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benckiser's food division for 4$4.2 billion the moveadds products like frank's red hot, which i know dom likes, french's mustard to mccormick's portfolio. the deal comes three months after reckitt benckiser put its food unit up for sale. >> rounding things out, crown k castle is buying lighttower for 7$7.1 billion in cash it helps expand the fiber footprint in the northeast >> as for frank's red hot, i do put that stuff on everything >> i know you do i like the buffalo sauce >> courtney watches me do it all the time then again we both like the same bad foods. let's dig in on the merger talks between discovery and scripps. discovery's ceo david zaslov was on "squawk box" questioned yest.
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>> all media companies on the content side are down between 30% and 40%. and they're down because there's a question of it's a terminal value question you come out of the tunnel, who will have the ip that will survive. 7 billion mobile phones out there who will get on those screens and be the emerging company who will be relevant on those platforms? in the long run, content will continue to win. and hopefully we'll have the right ip >> joining us now on the cnbc news line, we have eric handler, he covers both companies for mkm partners these are two companies that are not exactly bullish on your radar. is a possible combination of these two really that warranted and should the stocks be up in reaction the way they are? >> i think the deals make sense in both companies getting together you know, this is a game about relevancy and scale. and that's what i think this
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combination would offer. >> eric, i think it's interesting that the report says this is at least the third time that discovery has held talks to buy scripps. do we actually think this time it's going to go through the market seems to think so >> well, i think the difference that we're seeing this time is in the ownership interest of scripps networks interactive the trust which controlled a lot of the shares has disbanded.famp with scripps networks, it's easier to get the deal done. >> we're showing a graphic of the brands associated with both of these it's perhaps a good mix, like you said these are all lifestyle related brands is this kind of content a growth area do they need to have a merger in order for both companies to continue as these defined growing type entities?
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>> i think they are strong brands when you look at the combination, what it would offer is discovery is very much male oriented scripps is more female oriented. scripps what it provides to discovery are two must-have networks in both food network as well as hgtv in addition to that you look at what the combination could offer, there's probably 2$250 million of global cost synergies. it's an opportunity to expand scripps' limited international presence via discovery's extensive footprint. and it's an ability to leverage loyal audiences maybe through a variety of digital platform combinations including a potential nonfiction over the top type of service. there's lots of things to do
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when you combine these companies. it's an effort for them to really combat the consolidation that's going on the distribution side >> we hear so much discussion about the negotiations between different cable networks and then the cable providers when it comes to renewing the fees that they pay does a combination provide more negotiating power for scripps and discovery? how important is that to the two companies? >> discovery has a very broad network. they have a number of digital networks, but also they don't have a lot of must-have networks scripps, while it's only six networks, has two must-have networks that you have to carry in hgtv and food network >> i'm a huge fan of "fixer
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uppup upper" on hgtv >> my wife binge watches "fixer upper. >> cutting to the cord to have must-have networks is essential. >> must-have is the name of the game eric handler, thank you very much for joining us. in earnings news, csx reporting better than expected second quarter profit but shares are trading lower this morning susan lee joins us with more awesome to have you with us. >> i got up bright and early for this csx, initially the stock rallied on the back of earnings up as much as 4% thanks to a beat on both the top and bottom lines. csx has right-sized its business they cut 1,000 jobs. they improved productivity and profitability is back up thanks to coal shipments coming back this year offsetting higher natural gas prices
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this was the first full quarter under the guidance of the new csx ceo hunter harrison. the railroad operator talked up its share repurchase program by half a billion in total they're spending about 1$1.5 billion all sounded great until investors dug in deeper into the earnings results it was guidance that came up light. csx only reaffirming full-year expectations instead of raising them which is what the market expected so basically they came up short of street estimates. also more than 1$100 million in one-time settlements and benefits that will help boost earnings for the rest of the year that has analysts questioning the quality of growth in the back half of 2017. csx is the first of the big railroad operators to report earnings and traditionally railroad and railroad earnings have been viewed addres a proxyo the health of the u.s. economy we know that with warren buffett. that may be changing every year.
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>> transportation stocks are ones we like to key on because they show possibly the sign of economic life. with csx, this was a stock up 50% year to date already doubled in value the past 12 months. >> that's also coming back from the comparisons last year where basically railroad operators have been battered by weaker commodity prices, also cargo shipments, intermodels as they're called in the railroad space. you know that with retailing, retailers shipping goods across the country with railroads it's been weaker for the past two, three years because of the dynamics of the transport business a lot of retailing names are now using air instead. air freight. then also weaker commodity prices so people don't need to ship as much coal as they used to even energy and petroleum. >> lots of shifts in the economy there. thank you very much. >> thanks. in other earnings news,
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united continental beat on both the top and bottom lines the airline says profits were up 39% from a year ago. but the stock is trading lower after the company announced revenues in the pacific region were down 5.5% in the second quarter. a lot of that weakness is coming from china where united faces stiff competition from newer chinese-based carriers shares down 3% in extended hours trading. don't miss oscar munoz on "squawk box" later this morning a cnbc exclusive at 8:00 eastern time also shares of electrolux moving higher. the company reporting a 21% rise in second quarter net profits. the swedish appliance maker citing strong demand in north america and cost savings shares 3.5% to the upside. we got america movil posting an 86% jump in net profits. they are controlled by the family of mexican billionaire,
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carlos slim. shares unchanged right now in some u.s. adr type trading >> vertex shares soaring the drugmaker seeing positive trial results for cystic fibrosis treatment and bp is considering spinning off some of its u.s. pipelines into a master limited partnership. the oil giant is evaluating an ipo of an mlp that could include crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum product pipelines in the midwest and the gulf coast shares are just marginally lower. and semiconductor equipmentmaker asml says second quarter net income rose 3% that topped estimates the company announcing it will resume the share buyback program. shares higher by about 4%. >> the applied materials of europe the chip company that makes the chipducinproducing.
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jim kram hecramer has been tweeg about it this morning. he will talk about it later. >> he's watching those chips, nvidia >> all of them. on to today's wall street agenda another big day from earnings, results from morgan stanley, u.s. bancorp and mark&t bank before the opening bell after the close we will hear from american express, qualcomm and t-mobile usa june housing starts and billiuin permits are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time it's viewed as volatile number but we'll see if we can get a read on the strength and continued strength of the housing recovery in the united states. up next a check on the early action in europe plus why amazon meal kits could be here sooner than you think "worldwide exchange" will be right back
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mmm, fine. okay, what do we got? okay, watch this. do the thing we talked about. what do we say? it's going to be great. watch. remember what we were just saying? go irish! see that? yes! i'm gonna just go back to doing what i was doing. find your awesome with the xfinity x1 voice remote. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's check on what happened overnight in asia. generally some strength. you can see some green specs overall in that asian map. we have 1.5% gain in shanghai. the hang seng up by a half percent. the nikkei in japan up by 1.1% let's turn to what's happening with europe. we are seeing a mixed picture there. the dax in germany flat.
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slightly lower right now the ftse 100 about 0.10% to the upsigh t the cac in france to the upside in the u.s., stability to start. flat for the dow, the s&p just about 2 points to the upside the nasdaq 100 up by a quarter of a percent that momentum continue force that tech and biotech raid a nice winning streak dating back to february of 2015 >> the futures indicating the same action we saw yesterday with the dow the laggard of the three major indices. as for the broader markets, checking on oil prices we got numbers from american patrol y patrolium institute which showed a build. the price of crude around 46.49. brent crude higher a bit stronger action there when we look at the percentage gains for brent over the price of wti
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crude. we could see that bounce around once we get the inventory numbers at 10:30 a.m. eastern. the dollar did edge off the 10-month lows. right now marginal moves in the dollar against the other world curren currencies the euro is slightly lower against the dollar disappointment about the lack of a new healthcare bill passing. that's caused action in the market for the dollar as well as the treasury if we can get a quick check on gold gold relatively flat it did gain just a bit yesterday right now losing only just a hair gold sitting at 1,238. >> interesting that the dow, it's the laggard the financials were a big part of that story. >> goldman sachs the big ef.
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biggst >> financials and tech, tech has been strong. we'll see if that trend continues. up next a healthcare hangover what's next for the trump agenda after the senate fails to replace obamacare? we're live in washington with the latest and later why new jersey governor chris christie is crying foul today. today' we will lead you through "worldwide exchange. we'll be right back.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." president trump has insided all 52 republican senators to lunch at the white house today to talk about what else, healthcare. chris pollone joins us with more what exactly can we expect to hear out of this kind of a lunch meeting, chris >> it's a good question after everything that's happened over the last couple of days. you know, if obamacare collapses, it could leave 12 million americans without health insurance. that's why today we're seeing a lot of the nation's governors and members of congress hoping to see a real effort by both parties to come together to try to fix it. >> reporter: with senate republicans unable to agree on a plan to replace the nation's healthcare law, president trump has another idea >> let obamacare fail. it will be a lot easier. i think we're probably in that
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position where we will let obamacare fail. >> reporter: a disconcerting idea for 12 million americans who buy their health insurance on those individual markets. experts say if the administration cuts off obamacare subsidies it would drive up prices. >> you can't force insurers to be more generous without giving something back you have to give them money and more customers that's what the affordable care act does. >> reporter: now 11 governors, five democrats, five republicans and an independent are ratcheting up the pressure demanding that lawmakers launch a bipartisan effort to drive down costs and stabilize the markets. >> we will try a different way to bring the american people relief from obamacare. >> reporter: it comes after the senate majority leader tried to repeal obamacare without voting. three republicans say they oppose it. >> an indefinite hold on this, just creates more chaos and confusion. >> reporter: chaos and confusion in healthcare, with millions of
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americans paying the price of course all eyes will be on the white house today as president trump invitie ins all republican senators to the white house for launch healthcare is on the agenda. but you have to imagine that tax reform will also be a big subject the president is looking for a win and it is said that the white house has a framework in place, a timeline, if you will, of when they want to get tax reform done. dominic, courtney? >> it's a huge concern for washington and wall street tax reform and healthcare. chris pollone, thank you very much for joining us. time for our top trending stories. chris christie going viral once again. the new jersey governor attending the mets game at citi field last night a player for the st. louis cardinals popped a ball into the stands near the first base dugout it was caught by, yes, you're seeing there, chris christie boos heard all around the
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stadium, but after a few celebratory handshakes from fans, he gave the ball to a kid a few rows back. it probably saved a little bit of his reputation there with that nice move still sitting on a beach when no one else can go there, catching a foul ball to boos, this guy is not in the spotlight for the right reasons. >> no. it's funny that it landed right there. interesting timing and location. despacito, the hit song by luis fonzi and daddy yankee and justin bieber the most streamed track ever it has garnered more than 4.6 billion global streams in the six months since its release the record was previously held by justin bieber for his 2015 hit "sorry." >> when i was in italy this song was everywhere it doesn't surprise me thatiebeh
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two most streamed videos of all time >> the biebs who doesn't love the biebs songs, so catchy get on board >> i'm getting on board. good news for harry potter fans bloomsbury is planning on releasing a new pair of books in honor of the series 20th anniversary it will give readers into the insight of magic taught at hogwarts. both books will be available in the uk on october 20th >> have to get on board with harry potterment. >> i've seen all of them >> i totally missed out. i need to get involved it looks like amazon is already selling some of its meal kits one amazon fresh customer telling geek wire he began seeing the prepared meal kits in his shopping searches about a week or two ago. there are reportedly 17 different options available including pork tacos, veggie burgers, steak and smoked
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eggplants. vegetarian options are around $16, other kits range up to 20 dollars for two servings amazon did have a partnership with marlee spoon and martha stewart, then the news about the trademark for -- we do the prep, you be the chef. >> that sent blue apron shares down again >> like they needed more pressure. a round up of the top stories ahead and more on the breaking deal news overnight in the media world. >> potentially a blockbuster deal heading to break, another check on the futures we are slightly higher overall we'll see if those gains can build momentum into the opening bell today you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. for your heart...
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good morning earnings front and center as wall street awaits another batch of corporate reports breaking deal news, discovery and scripps are reportedly in merger talks we have full details. and chipotle gets a big upgrade despite new reports of customers getting sick it's wednesday july 19, 2017 you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ >> nothing like justin timberlake >> bieber, timberlake, a good morning. >> i saw him at american century
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golf championship last week. i was lucky enough to be in tahoe last week. j.t., a great golfer nice guy >> i saw him at a garth brooks concert. surprised? >> not at all. >> welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm courtney reagan in for sara eisen. >> i'm dominic chu in for wilfred frost. we have a check on the global markets. they are showing signs of steadiness, maybe a mixed picture so far looking at what's happening on the future side of things, we're steady and geared up for a flat to slightly positive open. s&p opening up by 2 points the dow off by 4 the nasdaq building on some gains over the last eight days up by 19 points so far in early trading. as for yields, on the ten-year u.s. treasury note, 2.27%. it's still about 2.27% we've seen a slight down trend for those yields as of late over
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the past couple of weeks we'll see if there's stability brought to those maybe yields ticking higher in trading today. let's turn to what's happening in asia. >> overnight the mainland chinese markets are mostly higher some of this as the dollar coming off those ten-month lows. a bit of push from relatively good u.s. earnings reports though we're early and we'll get to that in a second. we had the better than expected chinese gdp data earlier on in the week the shanghai up by more than 1.4% the south korean kospi was a touch lower and that was an outlier. looking in europe, largely higher but only marginally so here you can see there we have the france cac only up by 0.2% there's some earnings out in europe many of them from swedish companies including electrolux and vol vo group
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brexit negotiators entering their third day of talks in brussels the ecb will hold its policy meeting on thursday. >> let's turn to the broader markets. a check on oil prices. they have been in focus. energy a big part of the market story. wti crude $46.44, similar percentage gains in brent crude futures, $48.89. as for the currency side of things, kind of perhaps hand in hand there you can see dollar strength versus the euro, 1.1536 is the last trade there dollar/yen, 111.94 the pound is about flat. 1.3037 as for gold prices, we are watching them closely to see whether there is an indicator, inflation concerns, safety concerns, not really there 1,239. the top story, discovery
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communications reportedly in merger talks with scripps networks terms are unclear. but a deal would combine the owner of discovery channel and tlc with the parent of hgtv and the food ned work. discovery ceo david zaslav was on "squawk box" questioned he talked about how content remains king in the media world. >> we have a choice. we can hold on to our existing business or try and do some new forms of content or figure out how to disrupt ourselves. the question is not how much money. the question is can we be relevant on all platforms. if we are we will be rewarded by share hoholder shareholders >> these companies did try to merge in 2014 but talks fell apart. looking at shares of discovery and scripps, discovery higher by 9% and scripps higher by almost
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15%. those are reported talks we have a deal that's actually on the books here. mccormick is buying reckitt benckiser's food unit for 4$4.2 billion in cash. the move adds products like frank's red hot, which i know dom likes, french's mustard to mccormick's portfolio. the deal comes three months after reckitt benckiser put its food unit up for sale. mccormick expects combined net sales of $5 billion this year last year the company failed in its efforts to buy britain's premiere foods in earnings news, shares of ibm under pressure this morning. the company reporting its 21st consecutive quarter of declining revenues the tech giant says revenues came in at $19.3 billion in the second quarter shares are down by almost 3% csx reporting better than expected second quarter profit
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shares are lower by 2% despite positive results and united continental beating on the top and bottom line profits were up 39% from a year ago but the stock is under pressure after the company announced revenues in the pacific region were down 5.5% in the second quarter a lot of that weakness is coming from china where united faces stiff competition from newer chinese carriers so you don't want to miss oscar munoz on "squawk box" today in a cnbc exclusive at 8:00 a.m. eastern time united has been in the news a lot. most eventually not for earnings >> and oscar munoz speaking about those issues. at big day for earnings. we will get results from morgan stanley, also u.s. bancorp and m&t bank that will happen before the opening bell after the closing bell, we'll
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get american express, qualcomm and t-mobile u.s that earnings picture taking front and center stage let's talk a bit more about the earnings picture we have joining us now lindsay bell investment strategy from cfra research. i have to say, it's shaping up to be another decent earnings season take us through some of the mechan mechanics. why you are showing or seeing positive momentum for earnings >> it's been a good quarter, but we're in early stages. 74% of the companies that reported have beat on the top and bottom line. that's in line with average for this point in the earnings season early on that will come down as we move on the banks stole the headlines so far. good quarterly results, weak guidance was the story there wilfred i'm sure can tell you about that we're looking forward to see how
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the regional banks fair. technology will be the second best leader in growth with 10.8% earnings growth. that's after energy. emerging from earnings drought, i would say. and we'll get some of the -- the semiconductors should lead that. we'll hear more from qualcomm. they have some apple issues. >> talk about what we'll see from energy. the numbers here are eye opening. but there's some context we need to understand. >> earnings last year for the energy sector was 75 cents this year $3.34. that's substantial growth. a lot of that is the rebound in oil prices this quarter year over year, oil prices, witti up about 5% on average. the first quarter was energy price prices bottomed at $26, now we're below $50 a barrel here.
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but that's really good for the energy sector. that's what they need to do well >> a strategy standpoint, there's been so much talk about the developments in washington, d.c. is there going to be healthcare reform is there tax reform? all of these things are swirling around is there any way you or corporate finance managers can budget or forecast around some of the economic benefits are corporations, are strategists building an expectation for a trump agenda >> the short answer is no, they're not. that's because of uncertainty, especially from jamie dimon and others, there's frustration in the ceo suite with the amount of uncertainty we have. a lot of companies were expecting this to boost not just corporations profitability but economic growth. when profitability increases you
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can create jobs in the economic environment. it's that simple the numbers, earnings projections for the full year to 2017 are down, we are optimistic at the start of the year then as results come in, analysts get more realistic second half earnings remain elevated at this point in time third quarter has come down a bit. for example, the banks is one sector where you have seen actually second half earnings estimates increase since the start of the year. that will progress the next few weeks and few days that's why stocks are hit so hard because the numbers did not come down there. as the market was more optimistic for the policies. >> you have 68 companies in the s&p 500 reporting this week what are some highlights that you think investors should pay
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attention to >> technology is a sector we should be paying attention to. we only get a couple companies this week. we'll get more as the earnings season progresses. 10.8% growth, that's a decline from the first quarter of 22% growth for technology sector usually the s&p 500 beats by 3 percentage, 4 percentage points. so we expect that number to come in significantly better. semiconductors should drive that technology is an yir tharea tha given and taken this year as investors flock to growth and take profits and i think now you're seeing that investors are looking for growth again >> the most important sector the biggest one out there. thank you very much. lindsay bell, thank you for joining us a new report today shows the amount ofcash being held by u.s. companies continues to
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grow moody's says nonfinancial firms held 1$1.8 trillion at the end o last year. that's up more than 9% from 2015 the top five cash hoarders all come from the tech sector. with apple holding a record high of 2$246 billion moody's says apple, microsoft, google, cisco and oracle hold a third of the total apple accounts for 13% by ir itself >> the amazing cash story here, in you look if you look at those companies you reeled off, is there anybody else better at generating cash than a technology company or a mega cap technology company? >> not from those numbers. >> you wonder whether or not there's going to be fuel for growth in other sectors besides the technology sector.
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some stocks to watch, akzo nobel's ceo is stepping down for health reasons he will be replaced by the head of the paint company the outgoing ceo fended off a takeover by ppg earlier this year shares up by a half percent. cabin crews on british airways flights have begun a two-week strike today. the dispute is largely over pay. flights to and from london are affected british airways owned by iag has been hit by 26 days of strikes so far just this year. watching chipotle's stock. it is getting an upgrade the chain is raised from outperform from prior market perform this even after the pull back in the stock related to a foodborne illness in virginia. courtney, chipotle certainly a company that we talk about,
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maybe not in the positive light but creates opportunities for investors out there. >> right actually a lot of these surveys show it's a top favorite restaurant among the teen group. they're not scared away by reports of foodborne illnesses not everyone is scared to go in. >> you know what i had for the first time ever? >> what? >> qdoba >> yeah. we had qdoba at miami university >> i won't endorse one or the other. i have tried both,. >> one ed says paul ryan and mitch mcconnell should go the way of the democrats. first another check of european markets we are seeing green arrows across the board france is leading higher by
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the price target cut to 230 fro 260. from goldman on to our must-read stories catching our attention in the headlines my pick is in the "washington post" titled why ryan and mcconnell should go for a big deal with democrats. senate majority mitch mcconnell and house speaker paul ryan face a difficult choice as they survey the smoking ruins of their unified gop government after nearly six months in office, the alternative to waiting for 2019 is a bipartisan approach if democrats will have it the 2018 prospects look bad for both parties the gop lacks policy victories thanks to freedom caucus members and scared moderates the democrats are lost in trump hatred to where a large part of the country and mainstream media think they're deranged both parties have cause for
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concern. we are at a crisis point so swing for the fences the bottom line for this is that there are a number of initiatives that both sides can take on the biggest scale to get a grand bargain, a grand deal done if they're ready to swing for the fences >> i have never been a politician, healthcare is something that we can all appreciate we all understand that the system needs to improve. there are certainly failures in obamacare but maybe pieces we should retain. it's amazing to me after all this time the republicans didn't put together a plan that was good enough to pass. they've had how many years to figure this out? >> eight >> my gosh i know these things take time, but that's a lot of time my pick is titled the president's base versus the republican party i chose this one because as we talk about president trump's score card and so far lack of big legislative victories, i think it's important to remember those supporting him are not
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scoring him the same way the author cites a kate to institute scholar who says i think there's a lot of evidence to support the idea that trump's main appeal was validating the concerns of a certain segment of americans who felt they were being ignored by elites in the media, elites in politics and elite republicans. my reading of the data is he's not a time or a clock and it's not clear his supporters are waiting for him to achieve x, y and z policy goals that's an example of the press imposing their expectations on voters this underscores the point that media is not capturing a certain faction of the public that voted for trump and feel he represents hope for their opinions and interests. they have not given up hope on him despite the fact the approval ratings are low it's important for all of us to remember that. >> of course up next, another huge day
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for corporate earnings as we've been talking about we'll get you ready and we'll talk to a global market strategist who says currencies could be starting a regime change as we head to break, let's check out the dollar index we know we were sitting around 10-month lows. we have rallied just a hair from where we were sitting at the least. stay ted, orun"wldwide exchange" will be right back i love you, couch.
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...backsweat and gordo's everything. i love you, but sometimes you stink. ♪ new febreze fabric refresher with odorclear technology... ...cleans away odors like never before. because the things you love the most can stink. and plug in febreze to keep your whole room fresh for up... ...to 45 days. breathe happy with new febreze. welcome back to "worldwide exchange" i'm courtney reagan in with dominic chu futures here, we are mixed right now. if we were to open now, the nasdaq would be higher by 21 points continuing its dominance when we talk about the three major indices. the dow jones implied to open slightly lower the s&p 500 up by two. we have a ton of earnings before the bell joining us now is michael purvis
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from wheaton and company thank you for joining us i understand you think equities perhaps are not giving us the best indication of where the market is and bonds are better explain the theory >> in terms of corporate profits the bond market has it right the equity market is too optimistic if i look at consensus forecast for gdp, the overall street forecasts for gdp, you get to nominal gdp of 4.5%. that generally, when that -- when you get that nominal gdp, that's where we were back in 2011, 2012, the better parts of the post crisis era. you will get top line growth, 3%, 4%, earnings growth of 7%, 8% when you think about what's expected now on consensus earnings forecast for the year, it's 130 that's 20% year over year. the first half of 2016 very low. we had the earnings trough
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as we get into the second half of this year, you know, the beats will be much harder to come i took my earnings forecast for a variety of reasons from 127 down to 116. i don't know if that has to be a volatility event for the markets. it can be more of a process and digestion period and consolidation. >> there's a difference between being that and thinking the stock market also go lower are people better off buying dips in this market? >> i think if you're in the right seshgts actors and though yes. but if we get another 100 or 200 points on the s&p in the coming months, you know, recognize that there's a lot of momentum. you have to step back and realize what is underpinning this -- this enthusiasm for risk right now? it really gets back to a global
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goldie llocks condition with bas and growth that's where you want to be in the best risk/return spots that may be europe, emerging market equities in the u.s. there are good risk/returns, but it's much more a single stock and sector specific basis now >> it's a big question, but kind of quickly, if you could talk through your theory about the regime change that you see happening with some currency pairs. >> sure. >> as the dollar moves a touch off the ten-month lows >> as rates crash, real rate and nominal rate differentials were the only factor for currency pairs. what i noticed with the euro in the last two months it's sta starting to trade north of the real rate differentials. that's telling us that other factors are starting to come back into play as rates normalize. >> michael purves, thank you
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tech stocks rally. the nasdaq posting its eighth straight positive session, diverging from the dow, closing at an all-time high. full market rundown is straight ahead. one tech stock, when i read this i was like ibm, a tech stock? i guess so seeing red this morning. shares are under pressure after the company posted a drop in revenue for the 21st straight quarter. i'll go back to my desk and figure out how many years that is plus deal news, discovery communications is reportedly in merger talks with scripps network. this would have made sense any
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year in the last ten sort of there was scuttlebutt about this those two stocks are soaring it's wednesday, july 19, 2017, "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin, along with joe kernen, melissa lee is hang out with us deal news, discovery communications reportedly in merger talks with scripps networks terms of the deal not immediately known. while there is no guarantee the two will reach an agreement, both stocks are moving higher on the news the two companies broke off previous merger talks in
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