tv Fast Money CNBC August 10, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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doubled down on that, the only sort of concession he made was saying he was still open to negotiations but we saw that tumble into the close on higher than average volume over the spike. that is really going to lull a lot of funds out there, which are built on low volatility, o we saw this spike and they sell swoot clopoot close and that's t happened the question now is does this continue into four, tomorrow, in terms of the market sell off and how does the market site just overnight. we have seen the reaction overseas sharper than here in the united states in the past couple of days, so that will be interesting to see all right. thank you, kelly want the bring in the rest of the desk on this big market day. guy, what did you make of the sell off today >> you can blame it on earnings.
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frankly, earnings season has been good maybe better than in the last couple of years, so to blame it on earnings is looking for a scapegoat. i think most, if not all this move to the downside, has to do with the rhetoric we're hearing and pete and dan can speak to this a lot better than i can when you see the vix up 44% and for the first time in a long time, not giving any back during the day, that leads me to believe that people are more concerned about geo political risk they are about earnings risk >> so, you have a vix up 44% and it hasn't happened a lot the fact that the s&p was only down 1.5% was a little curious it also speaks to what you just said the way lot of funds have been b trading volatility. helping fund other bets hee, so this is a bit of an unwind and investors caught off guard the s&p 500 three days ago was making new all time highs. it's down about 2% from those levels obviously, there's things that guy has been watching. small caps, russell is down
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about 5.5% transports rolled over there's a lot of things going on under the hood if i would have told you we were due for a pullback, but be frank, when you buy voil till volatility after a 45% spike, that's a tough way to make money at least when you're trading options or buying protection >> we saw sectors being used as atms they were being drawn down the most in today eets's session >> after the aggressiveness, i don't know if it's too much yet. a lot of times, you get thexagg moves. highe esclose of the year for t nasdaq so you're looking at volatility over 19 there. we're seeing the paper, these flows. the pressure on the fang, but also the rest of technology right now. i don't know that you have to jump in just yet i think it's more than just a three-day, hey, we're pulling
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back i think so it's something we talk about all the time you want to have that protection in place before the move so those that have been sitting there buying protection and felt like it was a waste of money, doesn't feel like that anymore >> if you look at the other markets out there, the stock market move was not commensurate with other moves jap japanese yen trying to be the safe haven currency. swiss frank. gold all these things that would tell you risk on, risk off or back to that type of thing you would have thought the stock market s&p 500 or dow would have been down a lot more today i'm with these guys. this is not just a one day event. you don't need to panic, but this is not a one-day event. the dip to buy today >> so, the ten-year yield, 2.19%. at this point, so it's another assess class maybe telegraphing there could be more trouble ahead. >> why do you barking at me? did i do something i'm minding my own business.
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>> people at home, people all day long have been hearing from market participants. earnings have been good and here we are >> as we can all attest, either the hard or the correct way. that's been the mantra for the last seven or eight years. does it feel different now no, but i'll tell you the arrange signs i'm looking at german dax is at levels where it feels as though it could break down in 2016, that's what i think led the s&p to the upside, so if it did, stand to reason it could lead us to the russell stands. tran ports all over now for a while. those things concern me. that means the ten-year probably should be trading where it's trading. >> one thing i just mention, some of the big names that have these massive gain
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apple, amazon, facebook, microsoft, missing one of those you know, alphabet, these things have 3 trillionin combined market cap these are the ones that are driving a good bit of the performance or the outperformance at least in the nasdaq 100 when i look at those names, there's some clear technical levels they were in the spring, breakout levels. we talk b earnings, they had good earnings. i think they had this moon shot. into the events. you're having a bit of a sell off, i think consolidation is really healthy because it looked like sentiment got one away. there was a bit of come pla sply so to me, i think if you're a bull, you want to see that continue to go you want to see people get nervous. you want to see it overshoot on the near term to the downside, then you'll have your levels >> so, those big text name, we've seen this before, they are the atm. you talked about small caps being down more than the s&p 500, so if if you're a fund manager and you have ill liquid
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small cap stocks, the first thing you do to protect your gains sell these big names, so if this market going to continue to sell off, you'll likely see some of those tech stocks continue to go that will present an opportunity i just don't think it's today. so you asked the question, is this the dip to buy. i don't think so there's not enough panic out there. . >> in the past, you have been reticent about telling people to move to cash there's nothing wrong with having a high cash position at this toint point in time and i will refuse to say what a high cash position is i'll tell you what i did today i did take off a lot of risk i'm probably at about 40% cash
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now in stock market investments. >> amazon and netflix are more than 11% from their 52 week high they're they're in correction territory. in this market environment, the sell off is more likely to hit them more. makes sense. amazon and netflix, when you look at the growth, you get exciteded. there's a lot of reasons why there are certain names. i'm look at facebook, apple, all those names. they aren't even close to 10% off of their recent highs. apple was there yesterday. thag the names i'm looking at now. >> i think we have to go back and rook at apple had a good report and the stoke broke out so that is one where if you had sell off that would look like what we saw
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in early june, that does have valuation support and catalyst support, so to me, if you can get that one on the cheap, that's where you want to do it the same chart >> isn't it nice when they get along, these two >> i like it when they fight iyt. transports levels towatch 160. iwm, small cap russell right there by the way, those to me are the levels you have to watch. i want to throw one thing there. the tlt, ten-year yield, 210 to me is a huge level very close right now as we mentioned, the volatility index spiked 44% today to its highest level since may. our next guest predicted it on this show. >> basically, filter gets low, they'll get levered, then something triggers it.
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we think volatility will increase that. >> since that, the vix has jumped by 60%. jpmorgan's mark is the man behind the call. one of the most followed activists on the street. always good to see you, especially on a day like today why doept you give us the narrative behind what we saw today. >> basically, market opened lower. basically was drifting lower since 230 into the close above 75 basis points. happening at the last sort of stretch. it's the time period where they're hedging their positions. so, buying the tip or
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acceleration and last number of things, number of weeks, it was heavily toward the calls and that was suppressing, but we were warning, this is going to flip sort of what happened in the morning. basically in the morning when we saw this position has flipped then basically, it's not time to buy the dip because they're chasing on the downside, so i see today's move as more technical than fundamental geo political. does that mean that the sell off continues into today's session or technically driven in technical accelerations do tend pau make me revert we still expect higher terms it's going to be b a bit of a
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vacuum fundamentally you'll have three central bank meetings we think it's going to be too early for tax reform and you have debt ceiling, so we sort of still think that september, you'll see further increase in volatile as i said, these moves tend to zigzag >> so, marco, the top of the show, you see some of these funds balanced across multiple asset classes. they have to sell on days like today. if they get imbalanced, so what asset classes should they look for? tlt or gld to say okay, you know what, the selling is over and these, the repopgsing is over in these. . >> i wouldn't focus that much in these type of move, we tend to focus more on products as a driver the last few years, a lot about funds.
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they do tend to a look at longer look back windows to basically, so you need to have a bit of a more significant one day doesn't cut it or 1.5 type of day but certainly, it keeps on going higher, you need to sort of estimate what types of outflows there. >> i'm not going to ask you to name names, but there's a certain european bank that has the biggest book in the history of mankind do you think there's a potential for the, that type of book to face the dilemma, the fast rise in volatility today? >> i don't have any kind of information of individual sort of positions generally, when i discuss positioning on the street, i don't necessarily look which, the training shop is behind. so i wouldn't have a sort of view on concentration of risk.
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you know, that said, we look at a sort of leverage, s&p auctions, any products that have a better connection at the epd these products have been increasing >> how high do you think the vix could go in september? >> based on what we published before our views are 19ish. i think that's a historical average. we think sort of that type of the high teens, low 20s is something we shouldn't be surprised. >> if we do that in september, does that throw off the risk parody firms that's a concern >> that's a concern. we're not forecasting that, but
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as we get there, we're going to be monitoring it we're going to be monitoring as i mentioned volatility we'll be monitoring trend. if you hook at the trend, still long-term positive u now short-term is weakening. on a one month abasis. we'll watch those parameters fand they get triggered, we may go on and forecast a bit more serious. >> okay. thank you. jpmorgan pete >> today, i didn't do a lot. the market was down and we were watching it with everybody else. the interesting thing is when you see volatility spike today, 46%% move on the vix i don't feel like these one day events going to be a point in time where it gets people more nervous. gets ta panic. i think towards the 20s. how long can that extend i don't think it sustains up at those levels for lopg. i think those are the opportunities that you're looking and waiting for, am.
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to be able to use that volatility to sell it against positions. >> i personally, we could talk whether it was like exhaustive earnings or sentiment. i think this has a lot to do with the actions o the president this week. i think he's dialed up the rhetoric in a serious situation. in a way that anybody, no matter what side of the fence you're on, you can't feel too comfortable. you want to talk about how volatility can spike take a look at the weather in bedminister this weekend if it's raining and this guy doesn't have a golf dwam to play, we're going to get a lot of tweets, a lot of apgry stuff. >> so more volatility and more downside that's the bottom line >> if it's raining tomorrow before the close and expect it to go that way in new jersey, then i think you strap it on and buy some puts. >> do i like buy -- >> it's a good question. what would you do, what would you look for tomorrow morning
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first thing. >> if you think volatility and i've mentioned, i didn't name name, butly now. deutsche bank has a tremendous derivatives book the stock has not been trading well now for quite some time one has to wonder with heightened volatility, if you see deutsche bank continue to sell off as the vix goes higher, it would lead me to believe that they've gotten themselves off sides. trying to say it in english. they were taken in premium by selling options. that game works until it doesn't. you saw what happened today. >> coming up, snap just reporting earnings share rs getting crushed that call getting under way right now. we'll bring you the latest headlines. plus, nvidia is up nearly 200% it's sinking after hours on earnings, so are any traders buy ing this stock right now on this 6% dip and later, bitcoin surging to record highs but what is behind the move? brian kelly is going to breck
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to beat across the board for nordstr nordstrom, but unlike those, nordstrom's sales actually grew and it increased earnings and revenue guidance smells ligslightly above the street shares after hours are up there. more than 3% the department store says its anniversary sale, the larnlest of the year, was the big driver for the quarter. it was stronger that year than in years past. nordstrom's online sales made up a quarter of total sales for the second quarter now, their total comp sales were 1.7% analysts expected a loss the off price nordstrom rack business, the stores and online together, outperformed again comps there grew more than 3%, but the rack stores alone saw comps drop 1%. the full line dropped 1.4% those stores alone for the regular stores dropped measure 4% the call is underway
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the retailer is looking to grab b share and key markets where it's going to be investing most in stores and management admits sales plan for rack stores might have been too aggressive for the year going in. melissa. >> thank you back at headquarters that takes us to the move of day. the retail etf tanking 3% today for the worst session of the year the department stores drag on the safe macy's, kohl's, dillards plunlgplunl plunging dan called the xrt the worst chart ever >> the other night, we were talking about retail in general. we were previewing all of the department store earnings then look out to next week. looking at walmart, trading on a 52-week high target up 20% from its lows then we had home depot, but showed good relative strength my view simply was wait until these earnings come out then short this thing because you keep shorting the srt.
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what some of these department stores are telling you, there's big structural issues here they're going to shut a lot of those other stores >> when you look at these numbers and the e commerce last quarter, upper 20s they continue to grow in the right spots over the last years. one was the corp. sales. they were worse than expecteded. this time, they were better. are they showing us a turn >> i'm not saying that we need to get rid of jc penney's and sears and we need to see cop sdocumentation. >> you think nordstroms is a buyer. >> i think the ones that have premium brands, whatever the plan is is sxwl do you want to buy those?
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to me, that sounds like you've got two choices here you're going to get bought out or go out of business. >> there's another choice, actually >> like the amazon and whole foods where you part up ner wup a large excommerce player. >> how many choices are on the table right u no then the others. to buy the brands themselves and not buy the stores that sell the brands t trz. >> i'll tell you something about, is the business turning around inventories were up 2.2% sales growth was up 3.5% what does that mean? they're able to maintain margins in an industry where a lot of people haven't been able to.
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trz that crazy evaluation. so here at 46.5 now, there's a real good chance the stock continue to rally up to 50 bucks, where it's failed a number of times this year. >> still ahead, check out shares of snap getting crushed. after hours stock is down nearly 14%. we'll hear from the ceo about what looks like a rough quarter after this you're watching "fast money" on cnbc first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up on fast ♪ ♪ it's the most wonderful time of the year ♪ >> well, not you own bio tech stocks because there's something about the month of august that usually spells pain. we'll tell you what that is. plus, a digital currency in which transactions can be performed without the need for a central bank >> what is the craze sweeping the nation known as bitcoin? we have another question what makes it go higher? bk is breaking down bitcoin.
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welcome back to fast money it was a sea of red on wall street today the dow dropping more than 200 points while s&p fell 1.5% and nasdaq fell more than 2% here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. nvidia sinking 6% after earpings report it has been the hottest stock over the last year surging more than 180%. nearly 50% to just the past
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month, so what is driving the currency higher? mr. bitcoin himself will breakdown the move, take yours on it later on, but first, snap shares getting crush ued tanking 13%. julia is standing by in los angeles with the latest. hi, julia. >> that's right. i'm just right here outside snap headquarters and despite the stock tanking, evan speak l on the call taking a positive tone. he ended his prepared comments by reassuring investors ahead of a big lock up expiration that he and his cofounder have no plans to sell. >> given the amount of speculation, it's important fo note bobby and i will not sell any of our shares this year. the company will withhold the shares kneed to sats faye the tax holding obligations. we believe deeply in long-term success of snap. >> just moments ago saying the
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combinati combination, and new advertisers, should help grow revenue. spe he's saying the more effective the whole system becomes, talking about how the option and data should help increase advertiser roi no comments on competition from facebook or instagram. we'll likely hear comments from that in the qa and session with analysts we may even hear some questions about what facebook unveiled today, it's new watch tab. of course, snap has its own for content, the discover tab. back over to you >> thank you very much take a look at snap. the loss nearly quadrupled daily active users added in the
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quarter, missed expeck tactaties there's still the lock up which comes up august 14th dan, what do you make of the stock here at new lows >> well, it's clearly disappointing. obviously, you have a situation here where growth wasn't as expected i think there are some positives here they're saying on average those 173 million daily active users snap about 20 times a day. that's the sort of thing advertisers get excited about. engagement when you think about their average revenue, they're up to about 1.05 that's about a quarter of what facebook gets for each user here so to me, i don't think you have to think ant how quickly they get to a billion daily or monthly active users you look at how you're going get revenue out of the users they're having so to me, we're three, four months after the ipo
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you have to say okay, is this the end of the story i submit as guy likes to say, probably not is there lower lows? i don't know you've been saying single digits >> single digits >> yes >> 3 million, 2013, 2014 offers him $3 billion. he says i'm going to go after you. he has gone for the jugular. when you look at what instagram has in terms of their daily active users very snap, it's not even close anymore advertising on snap is very difficult. heck, morgan stanley, who brought them up in the ipo, they're even downgrading they've lost faith in what's going on with the leadership of this company and by the way, they don't have the broad swath that you're going to get out of the facebook instagram world this is a team group
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>> these guys are heavily tied to google. i bet you see some sort of extended partnership. >> google's going to go after them with something called stamp. that's already in the works, so i think that's another competitor that's going to be very, very difficult >> this is a fresh low in the afterhours session lifetime low if its short lifetime you said you thought snap could be set up for a trade. >> if you holook at it today, is closed up now, i will say, i thought post earnings would rally into 14s, 14 and a half or so, then fail. i got that part wrong. every rally in the stock has been sold and that's sort of what's happening here. does it get to the single digits it's probably correct at this point. >> i was one of those saying you know what, maybe snap has bottomed here. it's worth taking a look for a buy.
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i thought that the sentiment had gotten so negative that even if it missed a little bit, you would have gotten a big rally. well, i was wrong on that. so, what do you do in this situation? to me, this is a situation where i get out of it completely reevaluate, maybe come back later on there's something here, i hear his point, there's a lot of competition here they have yet to address that and i think until you see that, you can't get back >> we're down 17% now on snap shares we've got a news alert on bri e bridgewater. leslie >> hey, melissa, that's right. ray putting his money where his mouth is is. in a regulatory filing disclosed today, his firm bridgewater showed a new purchase of i shares amounting to about $100 million total that echoes a blog post from earlier today where he was recommending investors hold 5 to 10% of their portfolio in gold to hedge against the uncertain thety with north
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korea. now, we don't know how much he holds, these are so-called 13f filings, which show equity exposure only. but there were other interesting moves, include iing more than $1 billion into emerging market etfs, including a bond and he increased his exposure to south korea etf. it's important to know these filings disclose holdings as of the end of the quarter, so june 30th, so they are a bit old, so we don't know exactly how much he holds now, especially given efg that's going on in the news but, interesting stuff none the less >> thank you and of course, ray is the latest in a string of big investmen investments, if you will, who are getting more cautious. we had gun lock, black rack, all not to be alarmed, but getting less bullish on the markets. yesterday morning, early and dan sees all these things.
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october 131. somebody buys those for 30 some odd cents. those have doubled today it's one thing i did i trimmed some of those because at 50%, why not take that off. i'm going to hold the rest because i heard about dali oh, and there are more and more folks talking about gold as the spot to be doesn't mean gold's going to be in this great correlation like it used to be in the past, but why not have some at this point in time. >> do you have gold? >> i don't >> is it because you have bitcoin? >> exactly rather have bitcoin at this point in time. i don't think there's anything wrong with holding gold. the reason i don't is because my view on the dollar, i think we're going to get a stronger dollar, so therefore, that's tougher, but i think it's sbresing that people are buying gold as this kind of geo political hedge. i don't think there's anything wrong. >> here's a much better trade. gdx. we know that relationship there, that's one that has had made three lows over the last four months down about 21 bucks
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it's approaching a down trend line that it's been in since the 52-week high so if you're considering getting along gld for this, i'd go to g dprx. >> nvidia sinking after its earnings report. one of the hoets hottest stocks of the year. is the epic run over plus, bio tech posting its worst in history we'll explain why when "fast money" returns ed fifty knots lie on the caribbean seas ♪ ♪ it's a champagne and models potpourri ♪ ♪ on my yacht made of cuban mahogany, ♪ ♪ gany, gany, gany, gany ♪ watch this don't get mad (bell mnemonic) get e*trade and get invested
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welcome back nvidia falling more than 7%. back the leslie. >> hey, melissa, the shares slumped during market trading and again after the company reported earnings today. it's kind of hard to find a headline bad news in today's report they beat expectations on the top and bottom line. said they were returning billions to shareholders and showed bullish guidance, but some investors were concerned about the segment. the growth which was up only 2% from the first quarter investors really just waned more from this report a big reason why is that this is a company that has surged more than 185% over the last year among the best performers within
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the s&p 500, but today's move is one that make it is the shorts pret thety happy about 34% is sold short. among those andrew left of sit ron. he told "fast money" he shorted this stock into earnings saying it has run too far too fast. intel at seven times and texas instruments at 13 times, but who is feeling the pain today? the third of the stock including vanguard and jpmorgan. among the hedge funds adage capital hold the highest positions according to their latest filings in focus on nvidia's conference call today,crypto currency, emphasizing the unit for
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applications it's here to stay. the market need for it going to grow over time, the it will become quite large. it is clear that new currency will come to market. and it is clear that it is fantastic photography. >> very bullish. back to you. >> thanks so much. guy. what did you see in the report that could cause >> they beat big on eps and revenue. she mentioned data it's up 175% year over year. awe thoughs utos is the ore thi. growth was not there because quite frankly, that's the growth engine of the company. now, do i think the story is still in tact? yes, but the stock is probably too expensive.
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from 100 to 175, you could make that argument, but you've seen moves like this before stock went from 160 to 140 in a straight line the first time mr. left spoke about it and it feels like it's going from 170 to 150. >> andrew left put his short back on nvidia ahead of the earnings this morning. the last time we saw the short put on, be becomes the poster child for risk for their market, the reach for growth >> it's an old fang. >> what do you think happens now? we've seen nvidia down 6% in the after hours. >> you do wonder i don't have the answer to that. it's a great hedge when you look at what he did by buying those calls. they were very exsenn sieve. he was making a calculated bet guy's right.
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growth is spectacular, but it's deaccelerating so when people start to see that shift, they're going to take chips off the table. >> and you could see it hit the rest of market because that kay ta center is not just nvidia so people may look at that, in this environment, it's not what you want to see. so i wouldn't be surprised to see the leader of the market >> last week, it crossed $100 billion market cap there's few semixaeps on the planet that have 1$100 million market caps. if you start to get deacceleration, you have investors start to reprice this thing. if you did get most of the growth in these emerging tech spaces over the last year, then it's backward looking and at some point to me, i'll just say this, if the stock closing within where it's trading now, the moving to the options market has moved about 15% over the last four quarters, that's pretty bullish i would suspect if it closes down, it's going to make a new high again >> i did take a shot today on
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that i put on a call spread expecting to see this thing move to the upside i didn't get that. unfortunately, but at least i had a risk reward. >> amd is down more than 2%. also related because it's also in the crypto currency play. we're watching that one. one of the factors that's helped nvidia has been the performance of bitcoin, but as it cons to make new highs, it continued to confound some of the world's top investors. here's what howard mark said earlier on the halftime report >> my problem with bitcoin and i say in the memo, maybe i'm too old to understand bitcoin, but when i went out to california and met with mike milliken for the first time in january of '79, i understood what was behind i don't understand what's behind bitcoin. >> well, howard, today is your
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lucky day because bk is going to explain it in a segment called the more you know. what are some of the reasons why bitcoin goes up? >> you know what, so to howard's credit, let's find out what the value is and what's behind it here number of transaction, how is this currency being used number two, when you have currency crisis, this is acting like another currency. and number three, the dingital gold aspects we talked about gold earlier i'd rather have bitcoin as a store of value than we cogold. so, why do i talk about transactions take a look at the chart i have here if you look at the number of transactions, this is the blue line that's number, that's the dollar
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value. the orange line is the price you overlay them they're almost one for one exactly what's going on. what's going on behind the sa scenes here? bitcoin is is a social network we talk about monthly active users and bitcoin is the social network for money. it's like having more monthly active users and that's why they're really the thing behind this currency. now, the next chart we have here i took this today. this is google trends. where are people searching for bitcoin? nigeria, south africa. those are the two that stuck out. because nigeria, the central bank is actively intervene ng the currency market and south africa just h had a political crisis where the prime minister barely survived a no confidence
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there's a couple ofthings that are driving that one was a glut of secondary offerings flooding into the market another is that even though we've had some good news, the stocks aren't really holding those gains. they don't seem to have the traction no mna in the space right now. people are waiting for companies to start buying. we've heard from companies like pfizer, holding off waiting for certainty for tax reform before they make big business development decisions. if you look historically, we can see this is not out of the ordinary for august. august is the worst performing months for the ibb, over the last ten years our data team crunched the numbers and saw august down 2.2% the other bad month being october. look at that gain in july, though it looks like it's history held
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this year, this would have been behind september we can expect potential gains there. august, pretty bad for biotech. >> does gilead continue to break your heart >> it's bounced so much, it's not breaking any heart anymore but i have a question about the generics is that affecting the -- >> generics aren't really considered biotechs. but my lin is part of that etf they're not considered traditional biotech. gilead >> this is the name she just mentioned. people are still concerned, there's concern out there, the uncertainty, why aren't they buying my lin mi lynn mi lin my lynn my lin mi lin.
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there was a buyer of 10,000 of the september 7468 put spreads. >> the convergence up from the uptrend from earlier in the summer that gets you back down toward that protection level. so to me, kind of interesting trade here obviously this trader had some good profits but looking to protect over the next month or so >> where can i learn more about fancy trades like that >> "options action," that show, 5:30 p.m. eastern time on friday >> i have to tune in for that. >> meg, thank you. meg terrell. >> up next, "fin tdealra."
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