tv Fast Money CNBC September 18, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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recently they got major investment from daimler benz, so there's a strategic collaboration between the two companies. i believe that via is actually presenting the right service for commuters in the cities. i know in new york it works very well, so in chicago and washington, d.c. and many others we'll let you go use it, or maybe i will chemi press, thank you so much. that does it for "closing bell" today. "fast money" begins right now. indeed it does i'm scott wapner in tonight for me will issa lee one of the bullish strategists says he's not do not worry yet,
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the chart master sees something hulu becomes the first streaming giant to take home the fold go the first drama series how big a win? but first we start with the markets. the dow with a new record, s&p with a new record and check out the leadership as the rally broadens out financials industrials, all leading the markets higher, so do you chase stocks at these levels statistics a simple as just keep buying, pete >> i think in some names it is in other names it's more different. whether we talk about the potential, the earnings potential, even without the curve helping them out, i think the financials are way too cheap. all we have seen in the last week or so has been 10,000, 50,000, 70,000 calls being bought in bank of america, xlf, all different names,
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aggressively positions, then you look over at some of the industrials, but also the materials. paper has been very, very strong there as well. i this i the industrial names they feel stretched, so it's all about how you value the multiple are you looking at them in terms of how much cash they are generating or earnings against what the stock is trading ought right now? >> you mentioned the xlf, and you've been right star the upside call buys, when you think of the most active options list. these are $24, $25 stocks, the options are that cheap, but do you think these trades in the xmt lf and in bank of america have in fact been a tell >> they haven't broken out yet they've gotten to the levels where they kept on buying the 25 strike and then they get sold down at some point is that not the trade and they do underperform. >> just as citibank has.
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now you hear he's looking, it's trading toward $25 a share so you're getting those moves. when you look at percentages, how about the way the options have moved, in some cases to 70,000 that were bought were about 18 cents. >> it doesn't hurt that rates have been bumping up and you're ahead of a fed meeting. >> every time i hear you say citi bank, i say goldman sachs citi bank was never the tell. >> it shouldn't be anymore let me talk about citi bank for a minute, right? it's up in you include dividends, that is a breakout. it's the highest it's been. >> 90% from the. >> i understand that. >> they have taken their highs >> citi bank is a big dispoint if you've owned it for ten years, but for ten weeks you're
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flying high the ones that ultimately i think will do better if you look at citi bank, it's herer than when the yield curve was at 260 in fact, the banks that have leverage to a yield curve, but also consumer lending and the mortgage businesses for these banks are great. you keep on buying banks, but you also keep buying biotech. >> i was going to ask how selective do you have to be. >> sectorwise? >> yeah. may some of yield playing you stay frrp? >> i didn't say i think yields are going up i think yields are probably on an up swing from here. >> 220 is better than 205 was sour of our point. >> for sure. >> one of the reasons the banks have moved no >> absolutely. even if the two ten-year spread
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has overblown as a proxy, nevertheless the market perceives it as a future profitabili profitability. here as the thing, though i've got this huge mere of missing out. he don't have to be all in, you can buy a little over time you don't have to throw in the towel and say i'm going to be long. >> you say continue to rally, the xlf has underperformed the s&p in a major way if you want to talk continuing to rally, talk about stocks up 10%, 20%, i hear that all day long about the banks and financials, and they really don't act well. >> buzz if you look at the financials, it depends on what kind of time frame you are looking at. >> i'm looking at 2017 >> but let me ask you something, if you bought and sold the same
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stock more than once this year >> absolutely. >> so there have been opportunities to trade these stocks very well bank of america i have own for years, but i trade within that scale depending on where we are. >> but the question was, if you miss the rally, where do you put your new modern to work? >> the names that may be paused after trump's win and suddenly the huge jump, the opportunity seem to me that that is the next stop it gives the banks a great opportunity. jpmorgan has ha record earnings. what more do you need to know? we're trying to buy stocks i'm not going to buy semiconductors i don't need to do that.
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>> it's not like -- >> but we're talking about a valuation argument if you asked me what to buy today, i'm giving you sectors that still look cheap. >> thank you for telling us -- >> somebody has to reel them in. that's what i'm here to do. >> emerging records are trading at a two standard deviation event. they went through six years of 65% underperformance to the s&p. biotech is finally breaking out. the top four stocks make up 45% of the ibb for the growth they are giving you, that's worth buying here. >> i got to take a breath after that that was impressive. i don't think you breathed through that entire time. our next guest admits he hasn't been bullish enough tony dwyer joins us.
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good to see you. >> great to be here. we haven't really gotten it. still haven't changed our target it's still there i guess by definition, that means i wouldn't chase the next tick two weeks ago, i'm next to my buddy howardhuge here, who is buying financials, and we were talking about bond yields, and the world is coming to an end. today we're wonder if financials have run too quickly i beg viewers to stop looking at every tick like it means something. umpts people get nervous we haven't had a correction for such a long time. >> so let's quantify it.
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309 days, the longest streak that i can find going back is 369 days, this is the second longer by a lot. so the historical odds are you'll have a pullback i do look for a correction, judge, but as you know, i don't care what i'm focussed on is 2018 every headwind we've had has become a tail wind people wonder wife we've had -- it's permanent if europe is failing, if modsity in china -- as tim has pointed out are not the strong dollar has become a weak dollar. margins have govern from -- >> would you are you coming in at 2506. >> i think the 2800 is in the first half of next year. i think my earnings estimate of about 40 next year is too low. this is not done
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i'll give you an exact playbook. i don't want to be whipped by what the market is telling us. >> don't give me that you don't have an -- >> you know what the sign of a good sales guy is? when the judge is quoting you. >> were you going there? >> i'm going to switch it up on you. we're looking at a bit of a pause here, and then we're looking for roomp into the first half the three to six-month outlook are booming. what i think is going to happen is an acsit rated economic activities that put a powerful move into the first half of next year, you go into a break, a correction in the second half of next year. if i'm right and you're in a pro-growth trade. >> what about tax reform you get a big correction >> no, that will come out by early 2018 or we'll have a bigger problem, because you'll head into the midterm election cycle.
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>> i digress, and household real median income is making a new all-time high, upgraded better than 3%, guys, all the stuff that's been the headwinds to this cycle have become a tailwind. >> 2800, that's a pretty big number, but it sounds like you get there all on earnings driven, now on -- >> i'm actually thinking you do get -- first of all i haven't changed my number this year, because near-term guesses are kind of silly, as you know. >> but the earnings expectations go up. >> and so does the multiple. that's what happens toward the ends of the cycle. earnings expanse we haven't had the real move of this last half of the cycle. this will send so badly, but it's going to be a wild.
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that's the line that's killed more portfolio manager than any other line it's always right, but it's always early s. >> you just talked about a fed that probably will have to move more aggressively. expectations into wednesday are an -- they're going to raise in december, but if they do anything different than that, 20 multiple on the s&p makes sense with a 220 tenure, it doesn't makes sense with a 3 to. >> one of the misperceptions is the long end will go up. it goes up in yield when inflation expectations and break-evens are going up when the fed tightens, it stifles inflation. so the curve invertebrae
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so to put it in numbers, if you follow the fed plot, which i think will be accurate your mean inversion -- sorry, judge. the mean inversion is 15 months. >> you'll do it anyway do what you got to do. >> do your thing. >> i don't want to look smart, i want to be smart c'mon, buddy. >> thank you for being here. we always love having you. i'm just kidding around with you. tony dwyer i heard you say you were going to buy -- >> we're going to talk about that in another sector >> what does that say right there? >> i know that median income is coming i think there's other headwinds. some of these things have become tailwinds. we know as far as the tome is concerned, we know that low
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rates, a weak dollar, a lot of this stuff is very good for stocks when you think about how complacent investors are, i got to tell you, 2400 on the s&p would be a great spot to load up on you have to, but if we don't get a bit of a correction, i think the chances are we go down much harder when we finally do correct. how many 3% sell-offs have we had in the last weir year? two? >> my big concern is still central banks. if you think about the pullbacks we've had. it's when the fed hag puck back. big drawdowns. people are very relaxed. >> i you this between now and the end are of use sgloosh. >> i didn't say that. >> you want -- >> we're going from place where
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there was tons of liquidity being added, and it's being pulled back. >> growth is getting better. >> you don't think they have tell graphed that address wattly >> they have tell graphed every one of those big moves, by the way, before the market pulled back 20%, which is what everybody pulls that number out to, ten of the last 13 recessions -- that is a risk, everybody. you can't tell me the stronger economy is in a place no the fed to put on more gad >> are you saying then you would be hesitant to buy anything where we are right now >> no, i didn't say that. >> i know. i'm asking you. >> i've been active -- >> why are you so confrontational tonight? a little bunchy. >> that's what we do here. i talked -- i think you can own
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them in this environment. >> give the guy a compliment about his wardrobe, and he gets -- >> all defensive. >> i'm going to do it the rest of the show. pack your lunch, be ready. c'mon, it's monday who is laying down it this week? c'mon. let's go. equifax bouncing back 2% checking off some of the drama, and one short seller said he wouldn't touch it. plus chip stocks are showing -- he's going to break do youed stocks he thinking will be surgesing pete has an auto-related stock he thinking there's even more room to run. there is more fast coming up, next ♪ ♪ let your data live wherever it needs to, but see it all in one view.
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compromised. i'm assuming. >> how much? >> we've future $500,000 down as the damages. >> he says he's hesitant, because he's unsure how it will play out in the stock. you're short >> yeah, i'm short for a week. >> how do you think it will play out? >> i'm not sure. this bounce back of 1 and change percent is kind of nothing aside what whatever litigation and fines, it's the permanent -- it's enormous. sob we see it sometime and weren't can with companies, they lose high-quality people could it bounce around absolutely
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i think their costs are going to go up. the stock has corrected significantly. >> i don't know how anyone can know -- how can they possibly know for an event this size, in the big they are in. >> that's true, except i look at the people who have had data breaches. >> it's not central to their business. >> some of it is having credits, consumers who spend through their cards? that's how they purchase and tro trust with the company a it's happening to the u.s. government. >> isn't it fair to saw if you're a view of cnbc and you see carson block talking about his half million lawsuit against a company whose stock is already down, that that is not the reason to go out and sell your
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equifax if you haven't sold it or short it. >> i agree in terms of how you're playing this thing. >> i've could have had half. why wouldn't you put it into a put spread, just to take off a little more of what risk is involved in case this thing starts to spring back. >> excellent idea. let's discuss. no, it is. it is. >> it's like when we see tesla, when you see the extreme pullbacks, there becomes a point when you have to take the chips off the table. you've got to do the stock replacement. i feel like you've had a great gain, but are you going to want to give that up?
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you could put on a put spread there, and actually limit your risk/reward much better. >> no, i probably should. >> if there ever was a company you thought would have been lights out after a financial crisis, it would be, what? moody's? it's up 800% i'm saying playing for zeros is a tough game. >> aisle not play fog zeros. >> i'm just saying in general. i think, pete. it's a trading position. >> do you have any more books? >> i have a few books. >> there's a show friday afternoon that -- >> i have a few books. the 22 rules not 32, not 21, 22 coming up, hulu coming in with a huge win for pete najarian's favorite show, "the handmaid's tale. meanwhile, here is what else is coming up. >> announcer: chips have been on
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fire, and there's something to suggest that the ramally ain't over yet we'll tell you how to cash in. plus pete is bringing the heat, serving up the pitch on one auto-related stock that's up 30% this year alone. you won't believe how high the pit boss sees it going that and more whether "fast money" returns when this bell rings... ...it starts a chain reaction... ...that's heard throughout the connected business world. at&t network security helps protect business, from the largest financial markets to the smallest transactions,
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arrive at netflix. we have the details. he's going to give us the name when he delivers hess fast pitch, but first chip took hitting the highest since the dot-dom bubble >> hello, happy monday this is a basket of bull 30 semiconductor stocks goes on and on we're talking historic highs, and up more than 70% so as far as this year that's a bigger market cap that is six dow stocks.
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what is going on snow. >> well, the growth of the internet will create a huge number of connected devices. also, smart devices will incorporate new specialized application. odds ton muss cars, as does cloud computing. so there's a need for every kind of chips they need everything the end result are from the memory market. to global data centers, everything they're not forecasting growth of 17.2% in 2017 to a record
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$397 billion in some are saying, okay, this is some kind of cyclical peak. but the skeptics have been saying that all year for the moment, the ver changes are trumping any short-term concerns i think the structure way, the long-term way is the way to look at it right now. scotty >> thanks so much. bot pisani hanging out late for us pete, this has been your trade >> i'm kicking myself because i got out of nvidia. i sold it right before hear evercore. >> the paper in there has been absolutely unbelievable, scott 27,000 more calls rolled up. so micron has been working, many of these names
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not because i don't like the stock. it just made this run at an incredible pace, but i'm still kicking myself >> anybody like that >> i do. >> why >> i think they'll get the deal done >> this apple thing is an issue, though >> i think it came up and apple is doing what they're supposed to do. quality comment is still in a play to be -- >> what's your -- this apple fight seems to be real bad news for the stock. >> it is the kind of news that will make it hard for the shares to recover. i think the shares are stuck in a mold right here, but you've seen are a place where apple is continues to have to deal with they guise i think in fact.
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>> that's not what i said. i would rather own intel here. and i think -- altera is deal they had to do they are being very disruptive, which is not as sexy, but they guys are there it's a multiple that makes sense, i don't see wile qualcomm is going to work. >> a lot of reasons why they're up are the reasons to own microdevices. >> what i'm saying is it's lagged, though, up 178%, 2 1/2 times sale if you think about the m & a that's happened in this space, the average price-to-sales has been like ten.
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amd will have supposedly the first double-double annual sales growth if you're going to love the -- intel is back up near -- i would expect it to run into its earnings this is one where i think you can keep a tight stop on it. if you get a beat in raise, the stock is breaking out. our next guest says there's no signs of them cooling off hey, carter. >> how are you from my pointi not chips soaring, but catching up they've been laggard for the better of last two decades this is the chart, when the philadelphia semiconductor was conceived.
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the blue line is semis, and orange line is the nasdaq composite. we know semiing, they're euphoric, cyclical, they've been playing catch upever since starting with the nasdaq charm, and what we now know is it's made the new high. this is the s&p 500, what we know it is has made a high, albeit barely. let's put in the line, these not at the high. the presumption is, at least closer to the high than they are now. one stock i like has a big laggard. let's talk about intel okay before we do it, this is the
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performance of those three aggregates in terms of where we are now and how far above or below the dot-com peak we know the nasdaq from its dot-com peak is up 26% we know the tech sector has just broken out, but the semis are still some 7% below their peak i think that's one of the reasons that intel is an opportunity here it's a messy chart, but i think you can draw the lines like this we have a lot of tension there if you draw the lines on the day already chart, we're just wreaking out let's pull it back further here are the lines i think you have a lot of tension to break out it's gone nowhere in about two years. you could do a cup and handle,
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but we are nowhere near, now, i don't think intel is ever getting back there, but it's got plenty of room to run. this is my favorite semi, in a group that's just playing catch-up. >> come on over, carter. ♪ >> you could say it's interesting, the fundamental backdrop matches what you are showing in the charts for intel. you just mentioned that altera deal there's been a couple others in between that, and the company, the stock, investors are digesting all of those acquisitions to me, we've been talksing about this a lot, i think if you get the next cycle, whether it be's ton muss, or ml, something like that, these guys will not miss the next cycle when i tell you the fundamentals and tell you it matching up with the charts -- >> just makes me feel all warm
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and fuzzy all over i know you have a value bent to you, and it's probably cheap -- put this in context just for fun, the market cap, guess what it was at the high, 450, so it was the 450 real probably not, about you it puts the current 175 in some perspective. i think there's room to run hoar i think there's probably momentum here. i think intel is your best bet. >> thanks for being here. >> thanks for having semi. hulu making history last night beating out rival netflix. we'll tell you what it means for the streaming wars plus pete is bringing the
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heat, getting ready to pitch the one stock he calls a home run for investors. will the other traders agree find out when he delivers his past pitch, more "fast money", right after this we're all working forward to something. synchrony financial can help your customers make it happen sooner. so she can plug into her dreams... and they'll have a new addition for their new addition. whatever you're working forward to, even if it's chasing squirrels, synchrony financial can help you get there. [he has a new business teaching even if it'lessons.g squirrels, rodney wanted to know how his business was doing...
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welcome back to "fast money. the fast pitch, where one of our traders will pitch a stock that they think you should own, and whether here buying or selling that pitch bringing the heat today. what is your pitch, pete >> it's po lars is >> a big shock. >> i know, what i would like to start with is this chart look at this dramatic move it was trading up and above 150s, actually very close to the 160 left that was because they had to do some recalls when they did that, the ceo came in, stepped in, the ceo himself stepped in, exercised 50,000 options into stock, which was a huge move. a month later, he added another 15,000, 65,000 in total. oh, by the way, in august this
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year, the same man actually did it again, this time buying stock. this is a guy commit to do his stock, a lot like steve wynn, jamie diming, these guys are commit to do their companies what i like here is the earnings when you start looking at how the earns has grown, they were earning 320, 440 in 12, 135, 14,6, 15675, but all the way down to 34 on the recall that was a huge problem. now they're starting to come out and the earnings are starting to grow once again. they're talking about the orders for 2018 being up 150% and 200% on some of their vehicles? they have autonomous vehicles as well the third point that i think is impressive is cash flows they cash flow from their
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operations 500 million in 2016 this company is doing everything right. they took care of the recalls and now they're growing geffen i don't say tomorrow it's going anywhere fast, but i do think this is a $150 stock not too far away. >> tiism seymour. >> i agree this company is operating on all cylinders, but i'm worried about their key democrat graphic and there is not a lot of income xwrout in that group i think there's a limited market share. >> but it doesn't show that, tim, when you look at the orders for 2018 and the sales for july and august regardless of what you're talking about that, the numbers don't prove that out this somebody southbound just involved with -- it's not just
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about snow mobiles the uton muss is an interesting thing as well. >> fares enough. >> do you have a questioning >> no, he answered it. it's not just about snowmobiles. >> it's an incredible company. they also bought into the electric market as well. >> danny boy >> that's a scary earnings hit it took in 2016, but sales only declined about 4%. so i guess if you were to buy the stock, pete, you have to understand, whatever the cause of the recall, they'll not have that snafu again they may not recover from the next one if it's too close think chipotle. >> right that's a good point. they're supposed to earn 440 this coming year i expect that number to get bumped up when people start to see the numbers they were
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talking about just a week ago. so are you buying or selling pete's pitch >> well, because i'm in a hold, i guess i have to be a sell, because i'm not a buyer here i think we can get it better sorry, pete. great job, though. >> that's okay. >> karen >> i'm a buyer, actually i like pete et cetera pitch. >> feel better, peet >> it's an interesting big it's not crazy expensive i like that they're just not all -- >> danny >> i'm a buyer vlgt i'm good deal to giddyap on that. the reacceleration with sales that didn't fall off, i think it probably gets rated, and you probably get a megahat with that >> what do you think about pete's pitch did it make you want to buy the
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stock? you can vote on our twitter poll we will reveal the answer later in the show. plus one trader is betting big bucks. we'rgog e into tell you the name when "fast money" returns. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. [car tires screech] [bell rings]
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welcome back to "fast money. hulu is making history as the first streaming service to win the coveted best drama series at last night's emmys julia has the details. >> reporter: hey, scott, hulu broke through the investment in original content paid off. last night it took home five awards including outstanding drama for handmaid's tale, the'are first time a streaming company has taken an award this afternoon hulu just won the first emmys just last year this is a big wen for hulu, chess co-owned by disney, fox, time warners as well as nbc universal. if follows the launch of the streaming tv service, which happened back in may the company is looking for its originals to differentiate hulu service from the other players out there, such as youtube as
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well as netflix and amazon prime they look to launch seven new series in the next six to nine months, but hulu is still spending a lot less than netflix and amazon globally. amazon reportly there $4.5 billion, but at the end of the awards -- just four gold statuees while amazon came home emptihooded with no awards last night. with all this talk about the rides of streaming, though, it's worth noting that hbo still came in first place with ten wins that's despite not having "game of thrones" qualify, and also earned the awar for lead actress. streamings may be on the rise, but broadcast tv had a comeback last night, nbc, though, lost the top award for "this is us"
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did end up in second place with six awards thank you, julia how do you want to trade this >> i just think we're continues to -- >> i think amazon didn't win in -- i don't think these care about how many emmys they win. apple will be coming in. it's great for content creators. they have a lot more places to sell it, but it will become expensive. your point disney will be adseriously affected. >> some of the -- net flick is obviously spending a lot of money on content at some point does the emmy on nomination think about the way we shoulds think about the stocks >> at least with "orange is the new black" was a point to get them into the big leagues.
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hulu's performance is good and bad news for netflix it's showing that clearly if you spent it it will happen eventually competition is insane. i think 225 times trailing, it's just not worth it. it's a great service, but at what price >> to tim's point, it is competition and brutal the fact this content is being created. i have good friends who have done everything from the regular stuff, the capable stuff, even done some of the streaming, amazon, it is amazingly competitive, but they're paying big money, scott the money they're paying right now i think is far more than the money they're taking in off of it >> but my only point is when you have happenle, amazon and google start flexing that are balance sheets if they want to go out -- >> facebook, too >> it had be real lights out for netflix. i heard earlier this morning
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that -- he thinking that it actually could be very profitable and the stock could double i don't think it gets there. i think the other guy -- >> doesn't disney, too -- >> it's not in content, so definitely not in delivery should you have this premium i don't think you should. >> telecom also getting in on the streaming wars there's one name in the options space. dan, break it down for us. >> this is some interesting action on the halftime program i'm going to do a little better job than he did. [ laughter ] >> it was telephone mobile call involved exploded s on shortly after the open, there was a -- 20,000 of the october 6 in which kales, they break even up at 67.82, up 13%, 14% from the trading level one of the things got me
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thinking as we get closer to some of the approval, this name was -- it was just confirmed, they're in deal talks, but the stock has cooled off, and if you look to the up side, we have a chart there, this things could get going. people start playing that musical chairs that's complied vogue tilt today those options where are definitely bought. for more options action, check out the full show every friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern, with dan and the gang. up next, are you buying pete's pick for polaris? we're going to help to -- head to twitter to eck chout how you voted. wee reel veal the results right after this hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms
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>> 60%. we're going to go the other way. afp, i think you -- >> i go bank of america. >> tim >> gilead. >> karen. >> intel >> amd >> . my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cram america. my job not just to entertain by educate and teach. tweet me @gjim cramer what happens when things keep workin
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