forgetting to charge it. there's the old one. still sitting in the -- >> it doesn't quite measure your heart rate accurately, i found, because i have one. >> you know what your accurate heartbeat. >> i know it's higher than what it says. >> we'll work it out i hope you can join us then. "closing bell" is over, "fast money" is right now. our tracers are on steve grasso, karen finerman -- and tonight walmart target, costco, all surging back. plus stocks are at record highs, but wall street has been playing catch-up all year, so why aren't wall street strat yis more bullish we'll take one of those tim mid bulls to task, and president trump says your 401 comment is safe, but will it become a

victim of tax reform. just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water, general electric gets mauled, having its worth day, the stock getting slam, as it's downgraded to a neutral from a buy of a a disappointing q3 the intraday reversal after comforting words, but is there more pain to come? >> i would have said on friday the reversal of general electric is a buying opportunity. huge volume, closed on the highs, great it gives it basically back >> they effectively did the kitchen sink thing, all the downgrades and prices lowered today basically a fichb,

sick-year low, however, you have understanding there might be a 5% in downside, with a potential different cut which used to be a sacred cow, but now it's on the table. >> i think jim talked about it this morning there's no way he thinking they keep the dividend. that would be something that wasn't included last week. it was alluded to, for sure. it couldn't be that shocking at this point are there some investors with the different cut need to sell anything like that this he need to sell? that could be, but i think on

the flip side, they are waiting for this this is the emof the kitchen sink i still think you can buy it again that $21 level we talked about last week. for me you have billions funding the dividend, billions funding the pensions we didn't hear anything new on friday we haven't heard anything new today. you can't establish what's really in this stock and what's out of it and how low it can go? but if you're bullish, use $21 or thereabouts. >> if they said we're going to cut the different by 75%, that 21 would be supported in the

stock from where we are now? >> it might not be, but i would use, if you're out there playing the stock, you have to have a floor. you have to have an idea or else you're flying without a net. >> guy says something interesting about the price tan. traders have been selling, rallies have been shorting this stock for what was an eventual guidance cut and there's really no way to quantify how much a different cut would mean for the stock back in 2008 they cut it down to ten cents, it stayed that way for at least a year, but you have to remember, there was a huge hole blown in their balance sheet by ge capital then, and the world was a very different place. we live in a world where corporate balance sheets are shored up. i listened to david faber's interview. it was amazing there was nothing new other than the fact things may change that's what you can't get. if i'm an investor, i want the

news to come out quickly i don't suspect we'll have too much news on the different front. this company, you know, i don't know if the read the tom friedman, he talked about how here using a.i. and learn. so to me, i think you get that dividend can you but you wade here. >> you can star dollar-cost averaging. >> we don't know what this business will be

maybe this is not as sacred, and maybe we don't deserve a 4% dividend twice the yield of a honeywell, for example, understanding that honeywell is going straight up and ge is going straight down which has exacerbated that chasm if they say we're moving on, we've taken a fret look. you can probably make a compelling argument. again, i'm not that optimistic, but i think for the first time in years now, given the price action over the last couple days, you're finally seeing the light at what's been a very long tunnel if people want to find something to sell, this is a good example. maybe that will weigh another stock a wile they do have some tremendous

businesses. >> what's a value trap in. >> i don't think it's a trap you have a management here that is really ready to shake things up i think we haven't had that to the scale that he's willing to do it. that's not a trap to me. >> no specifics is the trap. >> weblgd see some spins not quite yet. if you're -- i don't think it's a terrible entry point let's face it 19 all the way up to 21. have a stop in find. >> our next guest says buyer beware, ge, the falling knife. let's go on the charts the hi, rich. >> hi, melissa

we have a stock trailing that's not where a trend follower like me goes to buy that's where you go to die if you don't want to lose it, you still can't choose it. it's the electric slide we are talking here that's the 50-day moving average. can you see how strong that down trend is, when we zoom out we look -- the story goes from bad to worse, that is weekly chart with this stock has some symmetry here. so that's not a good omen here the last time you can see much down side. which has held in the support becomes support. so we're not buys the stock just yet.

we have broken out in decisive fashion. i think that takes us higher clearly not so much. now let's focus on one particular stock if you flip general electric upsidedown, bakley you get caterpillar, and once again, just as ge, the longer term chart tells you the gravity. you can see, okay, rich, you want me to buy a stock that's -- and the answer is yes. i want you to buy it, because you're breaking out in very decisive fashion, really to a fresh six or seven-year high, a breakout which is consistent with a breakout of emerging markets, so once again, industrials as a sector you are

buying, probably tibet to outperform, but avote general electric >> rich comes over, right? i'm not overstepping my bounds >> a lot of folks, people propose this time of year, and will you marry me stuff. if you're even contemplating playing the song at your wedding rethink your entire existence. >> i had no idea where you were going. >> just putting it out there. >> rich, you said there should be another pastive sell-off. is often that bell at the

bottom, and rear wight back in the soup, if you will. that's telling you the could be as much as 10 percent that you willy wash people out when you're photosed to sell. and exhaustion to the up side, which is different t. >> yeah, i think they tend to surprise, and what we have seen, we have learned the lessons, it costs more to be late than it does to be early, stepping off of a very strong trend too early costs you more than waiting to be late.

let's wait, i don't need to make the first 10%. i would, that is that this could be or would like to be a dog of a dow. how much stock do you put into that theory? >> a lot i think that's an outstanding point. there's no need to be a hero, tina turner, if will you, because you don't want to play for this mean are version. people are having a good year. there's so many great strong trending charts out there. over the first ten months of the year trying to pick a bottom >> rich, thank you. >> thank you. >> rich record, evercore isi prete pretend you didn't hear what he said. >> caterpillar before the bell tomorrow we made it back in 2011. i think there's a chance, a

chance that we retres that double top tomorrow. so you rather caterpillar if they miss after earnings in the morning. ploo. coming up, is this oil's last hurrah? >> the commodity king says the party may be over. one trader sees even more ahead. we'll explain why. and what happens when the bulls aren't bullish enough. what him and his rivals got wrong this year and why wall street isn't jumping on the gravy traiju yn stet much more phony phony still ahead.

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welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert on whirlpool. let's go to seema mody for the details. >> in addition to disappointing earnings, whirlpool announcing glob cost-based price increases on a majority of its business. this is to offset the impact of sustained raw material inflation. chief executive officer marc bit cert says they're not satisfied, unfavorable price mix and slow progress on their european integrate. on the topic of europe, the

europe, middle east and africa division, reported net sales however, including the impact of currency, sales decreased 8% another topic that will likely get competition is competition from south korean players. in fact the u.s. international trade commission readily voigted unanimously a surge of residential washer import have seriously injured american manufacturers and worker that vote was part of a petition filed by whirlpool earlier this year they're sees raw material, so they're getting squeezed >> they were getting squeezed. who shares that cost, but do

they have a specific margin? do they have. >> i think we'll see more commodity pressure to comes. >> maybe not, maybe a sam suns appliance. >> i think people, for whatever reason, it's flat on the year. >> but if you look at it strictly on a technical basis, 167 is your support and it blew through every other support leaving, so you still have air

july 13th. >> they gave great guidance. >> what do you think this is tremendous guidance, stock was trading an 52.5, 53, it was doing well until we saw the whole foods/amazon deal. i said, stay with it, you buy this rally, and with the exception of a day or two, it's been off to the races. what's my point? targets is maybe a year behind, but if you like walmart at their current valuation, my thesis continues to be you've got to

love target at theirs. now -- that's kind of interesting. it seems like some of these big box guys may have a big shot, when you think about it, there's not a heck of a lot of data, we've seen some encouraging data, so i get why they're going up i think you have to be pretty particular about what ear going to go after into this run. how many people do you think had -- to your point, so many difficult thing that did go wrong.

walmart seems to be the only competitor to really scare amazon you had a better shot at walmart taking amazon clientele than the other way around i wonder if we're watching this trade come on first now. >> so normalizing? >> normalizing. >> do you think walmart is the one? if there's one big box retailer figures it out, is it walmart? >> it seems to be at the moment, but i don't september your premise. i do think that target has a shot here. we saw a bit of life van's was huge if they have strong brands, maybe there's some life in retail. still ahead, your retirement plan may be at risk, 401(k)s hanging in the balance of tax reform

dan, nathan will tell you how to get the biggest bang for your buck so tonight is the night. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. the massive ipo, has the commodities king delivering a simple message for oil investor. ♪ c'mon take your money and run ♪ plus -- wall street's bullish have a problem, they're not bullish enough we'll hear from whersttre op sat yi on what he missed and what had he will soon get right, when "fast money" returns for your heart...

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wall street's top analyst haven't looked bullish enough. hey, dom >> in the beginning of the year, the mean forecast would end 2017 at that time, that was a 4% forecast, they weren't all that crazy. after all, they had come off a 10% up year, a slight 1% drop, but double-digit percentage gains. with the market where it is now, it looks like deutsche bank is still closest with his call early in the year of 2600. now, as we all know, strategists can revise their forecast up and down as of mid september, many targets had been revised morgan stanley ace mike wilson

put ra price target of 2700. so it's tougher to make a comparison there of course, we have to remember that some of the lowest forecasting are -- and scott rett over at wells fargo between 23 and 24 hundreds all this was was bullishness, but if you look at what's going on, strategists are predicting about the market and what it could say. for more on that entire story, go to cnbc.com, and we have more on the targets over there. dom, thank you his year-end targets shows a decline, so where is his inner bull scott is here with us for well fargo investment institute he joins us now. >> hey, melissa, your price targets for 2018 is also lower

than where we are right now. so what's behind all of this anywhere from a 20 to 35% reduction. price to sale for the s&p 500 is basically at a record high i think that the probably solely based on hope for tax returns, so our tax cuts. those are some of the head winds we have seen we make year-end targets there's 2 1/2 months left, and

certainly the clock is working against us right now what did you miss? >> a couple things when we look back, we were overweight technology, we rode that position for quite a while, but we cut out way too early then we are mean -- we're still fully allocated there, but we also cut that overweight early in the year. i don't think pet would have carried those positions. this mark is about what we thought the high would be. we certainly left some money on the table. >> everything does quite frankly. how important -- when you guys and gals sit around and talk

about the markets, at an ever shrinking eye of the needle. most of the ebb and flow in the economy is caused by fed mistakes i any right now the market does not believe we're going to be three -- our fixed if that is correct, december is a given i think that's a pretty good headwind for stocks, i don't think these multiples would be anywhere where they are right now. i don't think earnings will grow

quick any of so i asked, what would you change how would you change going forward? it's not enough for me for you to say you missed a bill heater, a bit there. do you think you have to change the way you eiffel was fundamentals >> we don't. i think the market, as is the case in many cycles. on i any as far as our sector ratings, we're watching consumer discretionary pretty close, also with financials.

so we like our sector leans, and going forward, we feel pretty good that make our timing here has not been right, but we are still in that pullback camp. we don't think the cycle is over we might trade in a wide range like we did in 2011, but make a bit lower. >> thank you scott, wells fargo investment institutes. purpose for 2018, hess target was 24.50 to 25.50 even the upper end of that range is slightly below about where we are right now. he likes the sectors -- >> i think the most important thing he said is the last 90 points he thinking is

associatewood optimism about sweeping tax reform. that's the thing you have to judge at this stage of the game. to me you can look at a market top-down, bottom-up and figure out where everything works, but to me there is a bit of over-enthusiasm in the near term for when it broke above 2500, i just didn't think these 20 basis point increases was amounting to a whole heck of a lot. i say the hurding is very high i think the dead ceiling, the other things like daca, that could trip things up you are in the camp -- there are plenty of people that don't think -- about the longest period, i think the safest

thing, if you're looking for opportunities to reinvestment, i think you want to see a pull dp bback that's where it broke out. >> if you're a long-term investor, you're triering to -- it's a very different think. i know, but listen, i'm just saying that there's some other things at bay here >> so when you have to gauge and put your price targets on this, you have to say, i'm going to throw out everything i have done this is not that same market this week is the busiest week of earnings if we have major, at least they meet expectations, this could be supportive of this rally that we have already seen.

and it's riding on earning, and we are going to have the revenue growth, why not? the move in the russell suggests that the market is pricing in something. it's been pretty historic. >> when you say the move in the s&p 500 has -- the russell should benefit more, but quickly. i'll say this. the vix has been up over the last couple sessions, you say a pretty interesting reversal. every once in a while -- you know on the e-mail you can put a red flag next to an e-mail if you deem it important. today is one of those days -- i'm tries to help. why being dismissive >> because you just learned how to use microsoft outlook the amazing. >> it's true. just ahead, the ipo could be the last hurrah for oil.

plus president trumptweeting today that your 401(k) is safe bider his new tax ll what should your portfolio look like how much should you be saves each year? we'll have a report when "fast money" returns often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock. big thinking in the finger lakes is pushing the new new york forward. we're the number one dairy and apple producers in the eastern united states supported by innovative packaging that extends the shelf life of foods and infrastructure upgrades that help us share our produce with the world. all across new york state,

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welcome back to "fast money. saudi aramco announcing it is on track to go public next year jackie has more. >> saudi aramco, otherwise known

as the national oil company of saudi arabia set it is on track for an ipo in 2018, which could make it the world's most valuable company we are saying bigger than exxon, bigger than google, even bigger than apple as the market is mulling it over, specifically the valuation, oil prices have been supported over $50 a barrel. the price support is coming from production cuts. including the saudis however, those production cuts have been offset by persistent headwinds particularly increases. in the past decade alone, u.s. oil production has jumped 70% so the connect now, melissa, as they hang around the energy space, could this signal a top for crude?

>> thank you, jackie our next guess says it could in fact if you told me oil was going to stay around where it is, that's not a bad invest back dropped. they want to bring the most advantageous price, and i peaked we're going to see the same things when they bring the ipo it's going to be difficult to push past wti.

it would be difficult to put brandt past $60. at those prices, it's extraordinary. so i think the ipo, when it comes, it's the next half of next year, but i think that shall mark a very important high for many years in the future so you think that would be the peak >> i have a sneaky suspicious that it should be. i agreed with you, but let me push back, they're only aren't they better off, and having it trade much better, so they can continue

>> that is the one argument. and perhaps they would like to keep in ammunition on the but at the same time they'll try to get -- your point is a very, very valid one >> couldn't that be a decent trade? >> i think there's a be chance -- i peaked that the spread is going to remain very solid, i would rather own a wry finer than a provider. if you have to have something in the oil business, if you want to own oil in some matter, own the reniners, dennis, great to see you. thank you. >> thanks for having me on quick trade. >> schlumberger -- just too expensive. recorded last week, but then pal

burton today, they rook, 28 times forward earnings, it's just too expensive we're right back there now things typically don't hold the -- i'm concerned >> so if we think this is top, saying that the deal with saudi aramco was the top in oil, and geopolitical stuff sort of created more of a -- we still have an oversupply environment you have a predictable inpud cost going forward, horizon doesn't lookic that frightening. >> karen >> i actually think it would be around the toppish, most long in the weird, and they're telling you we're a seller, because we

see enormous change coming >> exxon said to report erv. >> i think they're giving themselves room here the implied move is about 1.5%, that's in line with the average, but the room seems priced pretty cheap. there's one trade that call myite today, really given a long holder more room in the up side. so today when exxon was trading at 8314, it looks like an investor a yield enhancement strategy, against a long stock position it's butting up against technical resistance, the trader about 11,700 of the january '802 1/2 calls back to close

long stock, short call, defining your risk, a bit to the up side, or at least the profit potential. >> check out the full show on friday at 5:30 eastern time. hasbro's ceo just to to jim moments ago. 1(> shoe how you manage your 40k) dan nathan will give us his playbook when "fast money" returns. i think it's terrific. your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and? >>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late. td ameritrade's elite service team can handle

your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike. we got your back kate. >>does he do that all the time? oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. help from real traders. only with td ameritrade.

welcome back to "fast money. questions looms off the standard retirement plan as the trump administration digs for savings on the path to tax reform. bob pisani has the details. >> hello, melissa. the president appeared to put the kibosh on -- saying there would be no change for your 401(k), and it stays the president says this dustup over 401(k)s is a good opportunity to remind everyone how bad the state of a norm -- cutting the contribution would make it worse.

the total valuations are at new highs, thanks to the rally the bad news is the numbers are still terrible americans don't save enough for their retirements. most of it is in 401, assets $7 trillion that's a lot of mean, but there's not a lot in the individual accounts. 65 and over, $60,000 you're going to live 20 year that's not a lot of money, folks. we need personal savings 13,000 for social security, 10,000 a year on average for pensions, only a third of americans collect a pension, so private savings are critical most people don't contribute the maximum amount, either because they can't afford to or they want to -- how about a universal savings account. the gain on the accounts are tax-free they have done this in canada, and one thing is for sure,

melis melissa, if we don't find a way to, people will work into that you are 80s or outlive their money. >> thanks, bob what could be inside your 401 account to turbocharge your retirement plans >> dan is breaking it down. >> obviously not a financial planner here, but i have experience with some of this stuff. some of it is just common sense. there's three main points in the construction of your 401(k) portfol portfolio. viewers of all ages should pay attention to it, first and foremost, what is your equity allocation oftentimes you hear financial providers tau about a 60/40 allocation between to bes and fixed-incomes, but we're going to talk about that the other one is risk, how much risk you're willing to take when you just start working versus later on in life, as you're going tore working much less time and need the money in that account.

lastly, really focusing on the power of compounding returns tax free this money is going out of your paycheck and appreciating tax free for long periods of time, so thes within the is it used to be tack the number 100 and subject tracting your age, that should be the percentage of equities one of main rears, the s&p has averaged about 11% annual gains versus the agg bond etf that's averaged 4% gains a year, so you want to be exposed for a longer period of time to higher yielding assets, compounding tax free that goes back to the portion of risk so you want to be taking most risk when you're young, you want to be most exposed to the assets tar going to appreciate the quickest, and you're going to

want to get that compounding rate of return, i'll just make one last point you hear this expression "get rich slowly" for the young viewers, when you have access to a 401(k), you max it out, do it early and often. don't even think about it. over time you recognize that even the small contributions at the time when you're making less when you're right into the workforce, the fact they are earning on that 11% of the year and compounding, that's the trick to the 401(k). that's why it's so important that the maxes stay in place this is a huge benefit to saving for the long temple, especially when americans are living much longer here and pensions are not around to me, i think those three points are important to the construction of your 3401 k. >> when i was just starting out working, i said to my father i don't make enough money to save. you said you're nuts, it's free money, time will be on your side, this is something you have to do. don't buy that starbucks,

dochblt go out to lunch, put the money in the 401(k). >> something struck me, and by dan's math, i was just figuring it out, i'm at 23% in december i have to whittle that down. >> so it's funny the old rule used to 100 mineius your age, that's how much you have at risk in the marketplace. dan pointed out, bob pointed out people are living longer so you're subtracting that from 110 or 120, to put more at risk in the marketplace, but the very important point is know what you're willing to risk i think doing it with pretax dollars is a benefit you're borrows the government's money. no fun and game for the toy to bes today, taking mattel down with it. how the ceo plans to turn things around more "fast money" right after this [vo] quickbooks introduces jeanette

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break bread, share our day and connect as a family. [ bloop, clicking ] and connect, as a family. just, uh one second voice guy. [ bloop ] huh? hey? i paused it. bam, family time. so how is everyone? find your awesome with xfinity xfi and change the way you wifi. jim cramer just sat down with the ceo of hasbro. >> we didn't know it was going to happen. we wanted to understand exactly what the impact might be it's taken us a month to get a plan together and a new agreement with them, which we have just signed a few days ago. we wanted to be clear we are making a new plan, we are

shipping them, we are partnering with them. we believe they can grow together, but again we had to relook at our plan for the rest of the year, given how close we are to the holidays and how important these months are more than 8.5%, also dragging down shares of mattel. more than 3% here. guy? >> the trade has been quickly, and for a while, and it continues to be, though i have to tell you, the move from 120 down here has been painful >> you go back and look at -- i think where it holds now they were basically in-line, but i think hasbro is a better company. dot ssn'mi the full interview at the top of the hour on "mad money.

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final trade time. >> alibaba, i say buy it on weakness i'm still long. >> karen >> going long, gm earnings tomorrow morning. >> so it looks like there was no october surprise yet, but i think november we see something. >> guy >> were you more upset -- did you think the yankees had to beat verlander on friday, or did you think they could win in seven? >> i thought they could win in seven on saturday. >> did that disappoint you. >> it was extremely

disappointing. >> the giants didn't show up yet at home. it's a terrible sports day for us. >> very sad. >> but it was a good day though that bull aisles target. thanks so much for watinchg. see you back my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey i'm kraurp welcome to "mad money. welcome to cram america. my job's not just to entertain by to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-734-cnbc or tweet me @jim cramer did we get slamm