improvements >> you buying more >> i am buying more. s >> twitter held the gains and they are back up >> acisco systems hit another high >> ual i'm buying that in the downgrades >> power lunch starts now. #. thanks very much here's what's on the power lunch menu for this wednesday. investors kicking off a new month on a mostly positive note. stocks booming around the globe as well. a trip inside those numbers straight ahead no tax plan, no problem for the markets. one day for the delay for the gop's big overhaul what are the hot potatoes holding the upper big release of that big bill. a home run for fox and major

league baseball. the world series coming down to game 7 had to be. we're going to talk to christopher maddog arusso about the finale "power lunch" starts right now if all that laid doubt was not enough, will the fed stop this incredible market rally or keep the easy money flowing. it is flowing now. a new month, mostly same trend the dow hitting record high. see the nasdaq turn low earlier. it was up. some of your individual movers today, estee lauder about 10%. company did cut its forecast and garmin up about 5%

investors taking a big bite out of papa john's pizza that stock down 10% after lowering its guidance. papa john's saying the nfl and its leadership hurt the company by not resolving the protest taking place >> people watching the game and people ordering pizza. president trump speaking a short while ago as he gets ready for his big overseas trip to asia. tax reform and the next fed chief is among his topics. >> that's right. this came in a cabinet meeting the president held today we believe it's his sixth meeting so far the president saying some of his heaviest hitters will stay behind as he goes onto asia and a bit of a joke about that here's what he said.

>> secretary mnuchin and gary cohen will be saying back from the trip to asia to remain individuvigilant and make sure x cuts pass. if i have any problems, i will be blaming mnuchin and cohen. >> reporter: that comment getting a big laugh from the president that he's already decided who to blame as he's out of country the president offering a few words of praise for janet yellen calling her. the expectation is for jerome powell to be the pick. we can't say for sure. when i talked to peeople at the white house today they say the president will be speaking tomorrow in the rose garden or east room. the nominee will be making a few words as well. >> all right got it thank you. big, big event for wall street

tomorrow back to the markets. as we have mentioned it's not just stocks here that are hitting new highs. check out canada's s&p let's go deeper into the markets. >> record highs everywhere global market starting with strong inflows record highs, let's take a look. several factors are causing strong inflows the most important, a global economic expansion and along with earnings improved globally. there's pro-growth and in the u.s. moderate home for fed leadership and arrival of tax bill in asia, the japanese nikkei closed at the highest levels in 21 years hong kong's hang seng a high i understa indonesia 20 year highs.

belgium, netherlands and france, ten year highs it helped that tech had a monstrous run in october s&p was up 2.3%. it's a lopsided gain it's all technology. it was up 8% it's worst than that five stocks are most of the gain that's what you get when you have market cap weighted indices and the biggest stocks all move up at once it pushes the entire index up. >> heavy moves from heavy lifters. thanks >> a lot of performance to the upside a lot of it has to do with what's happening be emerging markets. china, one of the big etf's

attracts them up about 34% you go all across the spectrum here the u.s. is at 15 brazil, 22% as well. these are some of the bigger, more heavily traded etfs that attract these markets. one thing to keep in mind as we talk about the overall performance of geographic specifici specificity, a lot of it has to do with the currency markets a couple of examples here. check out what's happening here with the ezu this is the euro zone etf and there's a hedged etf as well tak it takes out the currency move it's 27% higher. if you take out the currency basics of it, it's only 17% of the upside same thing here for a big etf that attracts the emerging markets. one of the bigger plays out there. the eem is 32%, 33% up right

now. if you take out the currency effects, it's only about 26, 27%. as investors talk about investing in geographic markets, it's important to note when these investments are hedged for currency or unhedged as well back over to you >> thank you it truly is amazing what don was laying out i tweeted out stats from around the world. u.s. markets gap about 18% even more for technology the european stock up about 16%. asian markets doing better than that the latin american markets not including venezuela up nearly 30% this year. truly incredible let's bring in eric friedman eric, have you been buying into these global markets a and are you still buying into these markets given these out sized returns. >> bryan, we have been we've been involved the last 14, 15 months with a global

perspective on equity. we think the strength of the global picture is centered in europe as well as latin america. it's been the catalyst that keep us involved in the international equity markets >> what are you afraid of? when everything, wheeverywhere up, makes me nervous >> complacency is our biggest fear there's a lot of people entering into more of a bullish tone and a bullish mode we have been in does leave us a little concerned. the data supports it earnings just continue to move higher not just in the u.s. but globally speaking. as long as earnings are moving from the lower left to the upper right we're going to stay involved in the market >> why is this happening all at once in all markets all around the world? >> i think the reason you're seeing this happen all at once around the world and especially in international markets which now in the first year in many,

many years for international markets out performing the u.s. markets which hasn't happened since 2009, is you have this head wind. that's changed quite a bit it's certainly -- >> it's a perfect storm. it's a perfect storm in a good way. >> absolutely. >> if you look at it from a valuation, we should be worried. importantly, the valuations outside the u.s. are far more attractive than in the u.s if we've been in this multi-year period of the u.s. out perfo performing, now it's time the pass the baton on to the international markets where you're able to buy stocks at a much lower premium >> we have two big market events tomorrow the tax plan, which we were supposed to get today and we

believe, likely, jerome powell will be named head of the federal reserve. interest rates, any concerns about them going up especially when you hear all this talk about global growth being so good all over the world and at the same time, what about the tax plan and how that plays into whether or not you keep investing in the u.s. versus the rest of the world. >> those are two important catalysts. the first in terms of the potential fed chair, i think that either yellen or powell are in the market. if it were professor taylor, those would be surprises you would get in interest rate reaction on the latter two choices. certainly with respect to taxes, it is an important catalyst. we do think that especially at the corporate side that is a market focus we're hearing from some of our internal partners that there's some degree of delay in terms of diecision making based on tax policy fundi ining hasn't changed, companies are waiting to see what happens with tax rates.

that could be the next leg higher if we see something, which we think we will in the next six to nine months, that could be the next catalyst higher for equities >> we'll be watching for tomorrow thanks less than an hour away, today is the fed decision on interest rates ahead of finding who will run the fed. hey, steve >> in september the feds said economic growth was only quote, rising moderately. since then the u.s. has a second quarter in a row 3% growth the question is whether the fed that's on the verge of likely leadership change is already thinking of change we're on alert for possible upgrading of the language used to describe the pace of growth at some point the fed may feel a need to joggle the market into thinking rating are going to shoot higher to where the fed believes they will be right now.

the two sides diverge after that the average height for 2018 is three. the number of hikes looks to be one with a one rate hike of 61% probability of a june 2018 rate hike the fed is unlikely to want to make too many waves today knowing full well the president will make some form of announcement about fed leadership tomorrow. under this chair or the next chairman the market and the fed are going to have to reconcile on the out look for rates in 2018 and better growth means more likely to reconcile in the fed's favor. back to you. >> all right thank you very much. we've all been there an assignment due and you just need an extra day to get it done that's what the republicans are doing with the tax bill. we won't have to wait until tomorrow to get a look what the will be in it. we'll take it apart next on power lunch. running.

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. the house dpgop making us wt one more day for the tax plan. why did they need that extra day? >> this bill is expected to be over a thousands pages long. republicans just couldn't finish hashing out those final details yesterday. unclear how much progress they're actually making today. one of the main sticking points

continues to be the state and local tax deduction. house republicans who come from high tax states say they want to keep this provision and threatening to vote against the tax bill in order to protect it. one potential compromise that had been floated was to keep the property tax deduction but get rid of the income tax deduction. pete king of new york said that's not going to fly with him. >> i favor tax cut i don't want the rest of the country get a tax cut at the expense of my constituents on long island. >> here is what we know so far about what's in the bill the corporate rate would go down to 20% right away. it would not be phased in. the top individual rate would remain at 39.6% but the income level associated with that is still under negotiation. the estate tax, that one would be phased out over the course of several years. this is all still quite fluid. they are complaining because

they said they haven't been briefed on those details even though they are expected to vote on this within just a few weeks. >> this is really being kept behind closed doors. i have no problem with if we're going to have several months to debate it. the fact it will only be debated for a week makes it pretty tough. >> house ways a and means chairman kevin brady tweeted a selfie saying he's working on the final tax plan but tbd if this will be released tomorrow back over to you >> thank you very much republicans introduce a tax reform bill that can pass the house. joining us is representative patrick mchenry of north carolina he's the republicans chief deputy representative. it's good to have you with us. good to have you back with us. >> great to be on. >> you're one of the deputy whips. that means you count votes

do you have the votes based on what you know of the bill and as representative king said it's been kept pretty closely under wraps. do you have the votes to pass it by the republican caucus if it does not include a deduction for state and local taxes? >> nobody has seen the runs yet. it's hard to argue to republican members to vote for a bill if it's a net tax cut, they're going to be for it you have to see the model. i've got great confidence we'll be able to pass this bill. we'll pass it before thanksgiving >> is representative king going to be able to look at the provisions of the bill where the rates are, where the various brackets kick in he's going to be able to look at and model for his district the net effect of maybe losing the state and local and even the

property tax write off that's important in many of those states >> everybody wants to argue about an individual tax deduction or some tax loophole even it's about the net effect. tax reform is about eliminating and simplifying the tax code and actually, as a result, for republicans, reform means lower taxes as well. the american people will render to government far less than they are today. the reason i'm for this plan is it provides middle class tax relief helps small businesses stay in business and grow and helps us keep jobs in america i know pete is very concerned about this and a number of members from high tax states are worried about the tax deduction. once they see the full model they will buy into the plan. >> i hate to focus so much on

process. we have viewers who understand taxes well we heard the standard deduction goes up dramatically a lot of people just won't have to itemize >> we double the standard deduction. >> right >> married couple has $24,000, they don't have to pay taxes on. then we go to 12% rate once this model is out, you'll see a massive tax cut for the middle class >> the state and local tax deduction doesn't mean as much to people as it does now >> right if you're taking the standard deduction and we believe the model is over 85% of the american people will take the standard deduction then you'll see a dramatic effect for their taxes the remaining 15% that itemize between 5 and 15% that itemize then you got to make sure it still works for them too we don't want a tax increase on american people.

i'm a republican i'm not preaching that that's not why i came to congress >> congressman, what odds would you place that this bill is revealed to the american public tomorrow or friday >> 100%. >> you think it's 100% if you don't miss it by friday, you'll probably miss the monday markup that will push you after thanksgiving >> everybody wants to put these scenarios. we want to make sure the runs work in all of our members' districts. their representatives here in washington can go home this weekend and explain what we're doing this detail. we'll have legislative tax everybody will see this and see what we're doing and we'll calculate the macro effect and individual effect on families and small businesses >> this bill has been kept under

close wraps is a long bill the debate peert is going to be brief. do you think it's sufficient it's been something the gop has been very critical of the democrats of this pushing through bills before everybody has a chance to read it. do you think the debate time is sufficient >> it is we've been talking about this in detail since the camp draft three and a half years ago if you go back to the '86 tax reform conversation, it took three and a half years between treasury one and final passage we'll have a similar time frame for this tax reform package. the ways and means committee members that i serve with have been working on this in detail for the last three and a half years and have put really blood, sweat and tears into this over the last ten months getting the details right. i've got great confidence in it. we're going to have a very long mark up next week in the ways and means committee. we'll be able to vote on that before we get out for thanksgiving >> thank you very much appreciate it.

>> thank you is the nfl anthem protest not just hurting football but it's sponsors? papa john's thinks it is just under 40 minutes from now until the fed interest rate decision we'll react to it live and ask if one chart is signaling something a little dire. there's your dow heat map. we're back after this. zar: one of our investors was in his late 50s right in the heart of the financial crisis, and saw his portfolio drop by double digits. it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client.

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november has been a bullish month. very minor gains the nasdaq now negative. energy the best performing sect sector telecom and utility. there are no second acts in american lives it looks like f scott fitzgerald was wrong because baseball's ami amaze world series comes down to game 7 we'll ask chris russo if this can really bring baseball back for good he's live at dodger stadium. a dodger co-owner will join is aunds he's not at the stadium. stick around what's critical thinking like?

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argentina mourning the five victims of the new york terrorist attack they were part of a google friend celebrating the 30th anniversary of their high school graduation to new york city. pope francis says he's pained by the extremist attacks in somalia, afghanistan and now new york his remarks came during his prayer service observing the catholic holiday of all saints day. hamas has begun seizing control to the palestinian authority the move comes under an grem bro - agreement brokered by cairo. a record 28.5 million people will fly u.s. airlines for the thanksgiving holiday period. the busiest day, mark your calendars, sunday, november 26th nearly three million travelers are expected to fly that day

that's the news update this hour back to you. >> need lots of patiences. >> you are turning to the biggest events in washington impacting your money we'll still awaiting the unveiling of the house republican tax bill delayed by a day. tomorrow we're supposed to hear who is next fed chief is libby cantrell here to help us all make sense of what has got to be one of the most consequential weeks for wall street for sure. >> sure. >> we going to get a tax bill or not? >> i think we might get a tax bill done but it will probably take longer than what speaker ryan time frame has intimated. tax is going to getharder from here not easier. mostly the focus has been on the winners, the lower corporate tax rate the lower individual tax rate, the simplification of the tax code when the bill is unveiled, focus

will then pivot to the losers. there will be losers this is the difficulty of tax reform harder from here it may get done but we'll probably take longer than what folks have -- >> i'm glad you said that. tax reform or any big bill is like barbecue. the best is slow cooked. take your time get it right i know congress feels a lot of pressure from maybe the media but would you rather see them take longer or is there a real political risk if they speed this up. >> that's exactly right in that big pieces of legislation do take a long time congressman mchenry alluded to the reagan tax plan. he said it took three years to start to finish. it took 13 months from start to finish we haven't seen legislative text i think theoretically you would

like to see a more deliberative process. i think lots of americans would like to see a more bipartisan process. i don't know if we're going to necessarily get that because of the political pressure >> the congressman said this has been marinating for years. all year this year it's been r ma marinating that's all true but there's no legislative text that everybody has seen i don't think the president has even seen it >> yes they have republican members these are issues >> have they done any of the modelling. you'll double the standard deducti deduction. >> many people will itemize. you're not going to have the human cry about that do you buy that? have you had a chance to -- we

just don't know enough yet >> i think we're not going to opine on anything unless we see legislative text that's a credible point. those 33 republican members who are from high tax states i don't know if that's going to assuage them >> the itemizer are high income people in high cost, high tax states who have costly mortgages. >> like the one we're sitting in right now. >> absolutely. >> and next door >> absolutely. >> observation on something. it's been, as we all knew, a consequential week for the market we have the tax package. we have a fed chief. we had a terrible incident last night and there were indictments that touched the trump circle

one way or another and yet the markets in the united states and around the globe isn't bothered by it at all >> it's been a little bit nuanced. it's faded some of the optimism that some of the other risk markets have built in. the markets keep going up. there's a lot more at play as you have discussed if you just look at what's going on in washington, there's a lot of things to distract them from their pro-growth agenda. indictment being one of them >> we're off in the fed decision here steve said watch for what they say about growth is there any concern that they will talk up interest rates in a way that maybe the market hasn't anticipated. >> we don't think so we think this is a fed that is very much trying to be as transparent as possible. we were just talking about this.

we don't think the choice of fed chair is going to make that much of a difference in 2018 because thing vs been so relayed and so transparent. >> thank you, libby. the six most exciting words in all of sports has got to be game 7 of the world series there's nothing quite like it. the dodgers hope some magic comes in the city of angels with a winner take all against the astros ratings should be off the charts but will baseball be able to continue all this momentum joining us live from dodger stadium is christopher maddog russo. he also has his own channel on sirius xm. you and i once shared and drink and that was like 15 years ago i know as a giant's fan it's got to be stuff there.

you have written books is it one of the three to five greatest of all time >> thanks for having me on i want to see how game 7 plays itself out first there's no such thing as an epic world series unless you get to 7th game they had an incredible game 5. and a good game 4. this world series has been an incredibly good world series they buried football on sunday night with the ratings, 20 million to 13 million.

people have dprgrasped on to th astros new york and l.a., the two biggest markets, two biggest franchises in the sport, dodgers moved out here in '58. do you know this is first game 7 since 1958 at either yankee stadium or dodger stadium. dodgers have played a game 7 on the road dodgers played in minneapolis. yankees played in st. louis. san francisco against the giants phoenix against arizona but never a game 7 in either one of the two buildings in the world series or the two cities since '58. >> pretty incredible >> it's the first time since the era of four playoff team that we had the four biggest media markets, new york, chicago, houston and los angeles be the last four teams.

here's the thing baseball's got this great momentum, right. nfl struggling do you think that baseball with its 162-game season and three plus hour games because they haven't been able to speed it up much, is going to continue this momentum into the next few years or will they just be a one off because the series is so good? >> there's a couple of things on that the game pace or play is a progress in the regular season baseball, they had 22 million last night that's more than game 6 last year that involved the cups who hadn't won i think the post-season they'll be okay. sure you like the big markets. the astros are not a brand team, brand name they've had a great rating here. will baseball on a week to week basis between april an october

1st nationally will they have the impact of the nfl. no they will not. everybody's doing well locally nationally they don't have the strong footing they have an issue with the younger audience i understand that. in the world series if things work out properly, good teams, exciting games who doesn't like kershaw if they have that mix, they will do well. this is a perfect example. they're going to get 0 million peop -- 30 peopmillion people watch this game. >> we want to get your take on what the ceo of papa john's said the nfl has hurt us by not resolving the current debacle. papa john's shares are down today because they missed their

revenue number he's saying people aren't watching as many games so they don't order as many pizzas and the stock is getting hit by 11%. >> it's major issue. here is your problem with the nfl. fans do not want to spend ten hours going to and from an nfl game on a sunday they leave at 8:00 they spend a ton of money. they have spent a fortune on psls to have the right to buy a ticket the owners have milked them forever. then they sit there and got to deal with players, rightfully or wrongly, that's a matter of opinion, who don't want to honor the national anthem. that turns the football fan off. they're not going to stand with that that's day of fun. they don't want to deal with any outside scenarios. there's some fans that will, especially now when the weather is warm and they have other things to do let me see them sit out with the super bowl some fans will say i'm going to

spend a fortune going to the games, spend my day doing it, take four hours leaving the stadium because of traffic, get home at 11:00 at night and deal with 30 plays who don't want to stand for the national anthem. i'm not dealing with that. that's the issue the nfl has to deal with. >> let's personalize it. your former colleague mike has characterized commissioner goodell as a good commissioner with respect to the media and operations and the league but a bad commissioner in a crisis ray rice, this should goodell keep his job. >> he's not going anywhere his whole deal is from a tv perspective and he makes a ton of money for the owners. i don't have as much a problem with him as other folks do elliot made a decision on six games. elliot goes to the courts. if he doesn't do anything and we find out things about domestic abuse, he gets killed there. if he gives him six games, he

gets killed there. he's in a tough spot he's got a tricky situation to deal with. he's got a labor force that is 75% african-american he's got a fan base that is, let's face it, probably the folks who go to the game, it's a different scenario he's in a very, very tough middle ground there. i think it's an impossible situation. the average fan doesn't want to spend a fortune to do it and he's got 20 players kneeling for the national anthem. that turns them off. that's what papa john's says today. >> that's the last word. great to have you with us. >> dodgers in 7. >> all right there you hear it. >> never at a loss for words >> never >> i thought you were going to

say first time, long time. i'm really disappointed you didn't do that >> i should have shares of tesla taking a hit. the stock has been having a rocking year up almost 50%. you can almost buy a tesla for that we're now counting down to the feds latest decision on interest rates. 16 minutes on the button away. we got it for you. not rebalancing your portfolio.

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tesla reporting earnings after the bell the stock running on all cylinders this year of almost 51%. will it be enough to keep this car company going. let's bring in collin langen he's got a sell rating and a 185 target what's the matter with tesla, in your view?

>> heading into the quarter we're below incentive. the challenge right now is about the model three production ramp. it's a big miss we know heading into the quarter we'll see how they can get that back on track. that's the real future of tesla important. >> put some numbers on that. the idea was that they would be able to produce something like 1500 cars and what they have 200? >> they produced 260 and we'll see how it ramps into q4 that's the critical we today there are still parts on the line that are being done manually or at least as of september. i'm sure they'll be addressing that on the call and that will be pretty important if they have to ramp it, everything is pretty well >> you are alarmed at the cash burn take us through that >> they burned about $1 million in last quarter and they're burning $900 million last quarter so you'd think they have

with the recent debt raise about $5 billion they have quite a bit and another billion in debt next year i do think they bought themselves some time on cash, but it clearly could be a challenge in the future especially as they try to ramp the model y and they need to expand their charger infrastructure and dealer networks i do think in a couple of quarters it could be an issue. >> you bring up all of these points they're great ones and yet the stock is up 70% year to date on stuff that everybody knows all of this stuff, and yet investors still keep piling into this. when does all of this stuff come home to roost, do you think and what do you make of these people despite all of the things that you say? >> yeah. i mean, it's been a frustrating name for us, that's for sure our earnings have come down and the stock, as you highlighted is up significantly in the near-term it is about the model 3 production ramp and i was disappointed

i think that was a pretty disappointing number and investors have to realize what that means in terms of the near-term and the low earnings until that ramps and cash burn until that ramps and competition which is the challenges it la faces. i don't think the traditional automakers are sitting on their hands. we know competition is coming. >> to michelle's point, where is the helium coming from why are so many others bidding up the price in the face of the numbers that you put out there i mean, it's -- you've got a 42% decline or something like that from current prices baked into your estimates >> yeah. people clearly are betting it's a disruptor. that's what the bulls believe. i take a contrary view in the sense that i think they're changing the industry, but i do think the industry is following. we know that because we see the massive amount of announcements coming from all of the automakers and particularly the luxury guys which are the most relevant we know the odd i will be out

next year and the jaguar epace and the porsche emission in 2019 and that's where tesla comes under a lot of pressure. >> colin, thank you. >> colin langan, ubs, we shall see with tesla. the fed decision on interest rates just moments away or maybe it will be a non-decision on interest rates we'll bring you that plus instant reaction with our l-aredanel stay with us finally taking don that schwab billboard. oh, not so fast, carl. ♪ oh no. schwab, again? index investing for that low? that's three times less than fidelity... ...and four times less than vanguard. what's next, no minimums? ...no minimums. schwab has lowered the cost of investing again. introducing the lowest cost index funds in the industry with no minimums. i bet they're calling about the schwab news. schwab. a modern approach to wealth management.

we are minutes away from the fed's latest decision on interest rates what will the decision for the interest rates mean for your money, with j.p. morgan asset management danielle di martino booth is president of money strong. scott mineard, fan of the dodgers, good to have you all here, folks. good luck to you, scott, tonight. >> thank you, michelle i want to talk about the fed decision, but can we talk about jerome powell and the expectation that he'll be named the next head of the federal reserve? he does not have a ph.d in economics. danielle, is that refreshing >> is now when i can say amen? >> yeah. >> amen. >> you like that that's a great idea. >> i absolutely like it. he has real-world experience and he understands the financial

markets and he's circumspect i wouldn't mind a fed leader who had less to say. i really wouldn't. just because he's quiet doesn't mean he's unqualified. he's worked with past administrations and shadow banking, you name it i like this guy. >> did i see you nodding your head what do you think? >> it's a breath of fresh air. he's not an academic, but he is a known quantity and it's something that investors can build appropriate expectations around and perhaps extra real-world experience could be helpful as we enter a period of more normal monetary policy. >> scott mineard, the guy that understands the markets, would that be helpful? >> michelle, i don't agree this guy is known to be a consensus guy inside the fed he never has dealt with the marks himself. forgive me for saying this >> he was a bankser and janet yellin was further away from the

market >> investment makers -- they're sales people. >> closer than janet yellin's ever gotten, right >> no, but janet yellin spent years at the san francisco fed, and understood fed policy and how markets worked this man has never had his hands tied or had to evaluate market moves on a realtime basis, and i think he's not going to provide strong leadership, and so in my mind, he's going to be a consensus guy who's going to look for everybody else to form a consensus and right now we don't know what the new consensus will be because we don't know who the other fed governors are going to be. >> look, let's just say hypothetically that brainard leaves and that means they still have five people to put on the federal reserve board. so it could be -- he could be building a consensus, but it would be a completely different consensus than anything we've seen for years. >> that's right. >> i don't know if that's good or bad because we don't know what it is. >> we'll find out if it will be

lower for longer >> we'll come out of the weeds a little bit because i don't care, david. i don't know who the fed chair was because honestly they should just do their job. under yellin, our viewer stock market money has doubled and under bernanke and yellin, will powell continue that run or stifle it? >> so i think it's important not to confuse correlation with causality and yes, investors have had a nice run with the equity markets >> i never call it the yellin rally. >> and that's a bit of a misnomer. >> i think about the possible candidates and we have yellin and powell in one camp and john taylor in another camp and if interest rates are probably, in my opinion, going to be the more significant determinant of the market next year, questiowe cana relatively known course. if we end up with a taylor leading the fed the uncertainty may begin to weigh on markets. >> that would be a definite

change, right, scott in as we have 15 seconds before we have to go to steve. >> taylor is the strongest candidate for this job and people marry taylor to the taylor rule, but taylor's made it very clear that the taylor rule was developed for a specific environment. >> scott, we have to go to steve. hold on. here's the decision on interest rates. steve? >> the federal reserve leaving interest rates unchanged at 1 to 1.25%. unchanged the federal reserve leaving interest rates it does economy the economy to matter that will warrants increases in the federal funds rate rates are on the rise at future meetings it also upgraded the economy saying economic activity has been rising, quote, at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions. it previously said that the economy was rising moderately and it went on to say that hurricanes will not change the course of the national economy on the labor market, they continue to say that labor markets continue to strengthen unemployment rate has declined

further and inflation, the core remains soft and that's a new word there and is running below the fed's 2% target and it reiterated and the committee would quote, monitor inflation developments closely and the market-based measures of inflation are low whereas survey-based measures and household spending was expanding at a moderate rate and fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters and reiterated again that near-term risks to the outlook are roughly balanced and it still sees monetary policy as accommodative. this was a unanimous vote with nine members voting including the first fed official picked by donald trump who is the fed vice chair of bank supervision. he cast his vote, obviously, with the committee back to you guys. >> steve, thank you very much. let's get back to our panel. >> danielle, take it away. what do you think? >> it was nice and measured and we weren't expecting fireworks to come out of the lame duck fomc meeting and i would ask the next fed chair to start doing

things at these lame duck fed meetings so they don't let the markets run the meetings there was nothing revolutionary out of this. we haven't seen any tempering in growth because of the hurricanes and i think that that speaks to 2018 and further rate hikes beyond december. >> scott >> nothing moved >> nothing has moved and why don't you pick up on what you heard out of steve liesman's report and also on the thought that david made that a correlation does not mean causation with respect to the bernanke-el bernank bernanke-yellin effect on stocks >> i agree with that i think that central banks are the source and solution to every financial crisis and so it depends on where you're sitting in the cycle and where you step in and what you do, and, you know, yellin inherited a dovish environment. she's the ultra duff

she delivered the goods and that was all pre-set coming out of the bernanke years and bernanke inherited a crisis and he did what he had to do, and if you graded bernanke on his first year in office you would say he did a pretty bad job, but to talk about, you know, i agree with danielle. i think this of anything and we're debating if this is hawkish or dovish. it solidifies the course thefe has announced that we'll get more rate hikes. >> the federal reserve has been a hotel buffet for about eight years. it's always the same it's not great it's not bad you know what you're going to get. things may finally start to change if inflation picks up we want to know how to make money. so i've got a chart, and i know you can't see it, but you know it by heart and it's a 30-year chart of the ten-year bond yield and it's been going down for basically 30 years some are suggesting like greg value at bridgewater that maybe that's it. we will never be this low again

and the bond yield for the next number of years, if not decades, will keep moving up. i thought we had the chart there we go. do you believe that rates will move up or down because rates control everything >> look, we're still in a secular bull market that's been in place for 30-some years. >> in bonds. >> right >> and we have not violated the downtrend and every technician's got their level and i see it around 3%. even if we break the downtrend, historically, moves like this are followed by a long period of consolidation. so, brian, i do think we will stay in a low-rate environment for a number of years yet until we start to see moves -- rates moving higher and the bear market in bonds has been well advertised and not delivered for the last, you know, five to ten years and i don't think we have the pieces in place yet for a bear market. so i just don't see it. >> let's go down to steve

liesman. steve? >> tyler, i think what you are alluding to is setting up for the tension that will come after this new leadership. we know that the leadership of the fed and that's the tension over 2018. i talked about this in the 1:00 hour there is a gap between the market and the fed i don't expect with the new fed leadership that the idea of where the forecast of where the fed is going to change very much there were three rate hikes of the average fed official and that's the general idea bringing up the funds rate to 2.1%, but only one rate hike is sort of baked in for next year and somewhere along the line something's got to give. we're 50 basis points apart there and the fed maybe took a baby step here towards kind of trying to nudge the market notice what it said here this is the most important part of the statement, to my opinion. economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions. it kind of asks you to take out the hurricane-related disruptions saying you know what it could have been doing better

than that and i think it's true if you'll sustain the 3% growth rates and we'll probably have a different trajectory or certainly the existing trajectory for the fed funds rate and that means the market will be as off-sized as it is right now or off-sized in the future >> what do you think that's pressing of the numbers? >> steve makes an important point which is that the market is too dovish into expectations as we move into next weir. if you look at the fed statement they acknowledge the state of the economy and they acknowledge this is the first 3% back-to-back quarter that we've seen in a number of years. the problem is trend growth in the u.s. economy is somewhere between 1.5% and 2%. so every quarter we grow above the potential growth rate and we're pulling forward from the future and increasing the likelihood of generating inflation sooner rather than later and i think inflation is going to pick up next year the unemployment rate will continue to decline, but it can only go so far before you see

that in wage inflation. >> everybody stay here we want to add another voice to the conversation. >> can never have too many fed yackers. >> rick santelli at the cme tracking -- i would say the move in yields, but you heard scott, rick, talk about the longer term scott mineard would no doubt love to debate and maybe we can set that up. what are the traders and what are you saying in chicago about the long-term future about the rates because i like to borrow money cheap. >> people were watching, scott, great guy. great comments, understands markets especially his comments on leadership, but many of us may disagree with him a bit and we're all watching the 30-year trend line, but being a guy who has been watching bonds since 1979, i'm sure you have as well and i know you took time off in the middle they love double bottoms and double tops. in july 2012 and july 2016 we

have a double bottom and right a whisker under 140, and that's a lot of the consolidation, so long-term, most traders on the floor say rates are going up, but it's not the fact that rates are going up it's how they go up, the speed they go up and the timeline of that because it's taken a long time to turn the ship around and the easiest way to phrase this nobody i talked to on a daily basis thinks you will see a 1.75 yield again. with a 188 double bottom it depends on how much of a timeframe you have the markets snoozed through this the dollar index yes, it's come off a bit and now it's right back where it was. two has hardly moved from the 1.61 level and one basis points and fives and tens moved a little bit, but keep in mind, tens and 30s moved at 10:00 eastern. they had the downdraft at 2.85

and 2.24 i look forward to how the marks react to the leadership. >> rick, if you took the fed versus the market game, the market won for a couple of years up until this year and the fed won this year. who's going to win next year if you're 50 basis points apart on the fed and the market whose side are you taking? >> you know, i'm not taking either side of this one -- >> oh, come on, man! >> no because i don't think fed fund futures is the soothesaying contract >> i'll give you a number. >> how many rate hikes next year >> two two, one in december of this year and three more over the next 14 months >> so, that's the view in the credit market. >> santelli, the compromise candidate. >> i noticed that. yes. >> that's how i think about him all of the time. let's get to bob pisani on the

floor of the nyse and see if we saw any action in equities hi, bob. >> two points. so modest expansion of the economic outlook, solid, as you heard. they were using moderate last time the s&p moved up 2 points on that interest rate-sensitive vehicles same as rick's world here, and not much banks which is what i watch here 45 on the kbe and that has hadn't moved too much at all and moderately to the downside and other interest rate sensitive vehicles not doing that much. i'm talking about the future of stocks and they trade on earnings estimates are sitting right here historic highs in the united states and are getting better globally as well. you put on a global economic expansion and the multiple can potentially go even higher and on the high end of normal and you throw in tax cuts and that's not modeled over analyst estimates. analyst estimates and the bottom line is that's how you get the stock market moving up

guys, back to you. >> final words from our panelist scott, why don't you go first? >> i'm waiting to take rick santelli out and celebrate which one of us is right here. the thing i'm focused on is the shape of the yield curve it will tell us a lot and the other thing, i was a little disappointed that the fed did overlook the impact on the economy for the dodgers winning game seven. >> i'm sure that will be in the next statement >> equity gains have obviously been impressive up until this point. the thing investors need to watch next year is the pace in magnitude at which interest rates rise because if we see a sharp move that happens very quickly i think that could be destabilizing to risk assets other than that, we're looking at two hikes >> i'm following the yield curve and the market has priced in exactly what it can price in before the yield curve inverts >> david, danielle and scott, thank you, darvish there's your message >> i got that. he's the pitcher

>> tonight, game seven. >> janet henderson's bill gross, we'll talk to him about the fed and rates. david, we'll get an answer to your questions >> dodgers >> probably not the dodgers, but you never know bill can talk about what he wants and we'll ask if there is a chart that says recession is imminent don't forget rg authe earnings. foetbo t dodgers, you have facebook earnings tonight we're back after this. that's aep's road to the future. and the international brotherhood of electrical workers helped make that happen. the ibew's outstanding union professionals have the skills and training to get the job done right. that's good for our customers and for our bottom line. ibew members are our power professionals. they should be yours as well.

the fed decision passed and

they made no decision. they punted to the december meeting, but there's still a lot to dig into with bill gross of janus henderson. thank you for joining us. >> thank you, brian. >> we'll shift past them, i guess, because it's basically a carbon copy of the last one, i suspect. the one thing i'm interested in is what's happening for the bond market and i know that for the majority of the audience bonds can be a little bit boring however, the yield curve, the spread between the 2 and the 10 is flattening and the flattest in a decade which we know what happened a decade ago. do you think what's happening in the bond market right now is signaling an economic risk or even a recession ahead >> well, no, but i think it has the potential and i think most market observers, brian, look at a flat yield curve as the precursor to a recession it's happened many times before, but let me point out that it's been my view for the past several years that at this time we don't need a flat yield curve

to slow economic growth simply because the global economy and certainly the u.s. economy has more debt, and when you have more debt you have more leverage and a flat yield curve, you know, is probably far too flat or in some cases inverted for market investors and for mom and pop in des moines to bear. >> what's the joke, michele? i think it's inverted yield curves have predicted the last two recessions >> seven of the last three recessions and it can be a signal it seems that everything is humming along pretty well and i guess i don't understand and you can tell us why are we seeing this inverted curve? >> well, for several reason and the primary one, brian is that foreign central banks, the ecb and the japanese central bank

are buying lots and lots of five and ten-year securities in their own markets, but that's translating into the u.s for instance, the german tenure is basically at 35 or 40 basis points and so u.s. treasuries at 2.35 seem attractive and jgbs that yield nothing and the pickup is 235 basis points and foreign investors move into treasurys and the ten-year treasurys and flatten that yield curve as the fed raises interest rates typically. you would see the ten-year go up in yield as the fed starts to raise interest rates and they have been doing that, but now because of foreign participation, a trillion dollars a year, by the way, you're not seeing that >> bill, it's michelle here. >> hi, michelle. >> interest rates have done almost nothing, but go down for the last 30 years and the stock market has gone up

it would seem that we're maybe at the point that interest rates will start going up now that the federal reserve is going to be hiking does that mean that the stock market is going to fall as a result >> well, it's not a positive, and i know many experts and analysts speak to the fact that the ten-year has to go to 3.5% or 4% before it threatens. i think a move of 50 basis points on a ten-year treasury would, you know, place the stock market not at risk, but certainly slow it down simply because the cost of corporate debt goes up by 50 basis points and interest rate cover and the interest rate expenses go up for corporations and profits therefore are reduced, et cetera, et cetera. so a 50-basis-point increase from this point forward to my way of thinking is not bear market threatening, but it certainly stops a stock market

that's had its way for the past several years. >> bring in, bill, the idea, if you might, of what fiscal changes might mean for equity prices in the market because monetary moves don't take place in a vacuum and if the cost of credit does go up for company, that's one thing on the other hand, they may get a big tax cut. >> well, i think that's true, tyler, and we're hearing that the potentially we've got a trillion-and a half dollar coming from this package, but a trillion and a half dollars is a lot of money and u.s. tax rates are pretty low at the moment, but if they go lower then obviously the corporate profits that result from the bottom line will go higher, so, yes, fiscal policy now in addition to monetary policy for the past five, six years is an important factor, and i think we're seeing that in stock markets that are

anticipating lower taxes going forward. >> bill, the gop will argue and they could be right that whatever gap there is, they'll pay for that in economic growth. you can agree, and you can disagree, but how about this if they are wrong and we add a $500 billion to $1 trillion deficit, what's a few trillion between friends? how much does that, if at all, reduce the current value of the current debt of the good old u.s. of a? >> and to the extent that it produces inflation and that's what you're leading to, i think, brian. you know, it reduces the value of all existing debt and it basically raises interest rates and lowers bond prices and so that's the ultimate effect to be fair, we haven't seen that yet and the fed spoke today in terms of the soft inflation market and globally, inflation is very, very low and brazil's

inflation is 1.5% and it used to be 12% just a few years ago and something is going on globally and structurally that reduces inflation and certainly a trillion and a half addition to the budget is want a positive for inflation going forward. >> bill gross, janus henderson, always a pleasure to get your view thank you very much. the high end is doing well, but casual dining seems to be ice cold why are diners fleeing the big-name family chains a restaurant reality check next. even love it. and today, you can do things you never could before. you're working in millions of places at once with iot sensors. analyzing social data on the cloud to create new designs. and using blockchain to help prevent fraud. so get back to it and do the best work of your life.

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or visit kohlerwalkinbath.com for more info. so halloween was yesterday you know what that means it means the countdown to christmas is on. just 53 days, nine hours and 35 minutes and 46 seconds retailers are starting to lay out their plans for the holiday season courtney reagan is here. >> starbucks has the holiday mugs i passed on the peppermint mocha. i almost went there. not quite yet. both are really counting on their stores this holiday season for the first time walmart is hosting 20,000 parties, at its

4700 stores like this week's toys that rock, where kids can play with toys and get pictures with santa, santa is back, making 24,000 appearances and holiday helpers will lend a hand to customers throughout walmart stores and at checkout if you forget something there will be more product demos in store to get you to buy more of those goods while you're at that walmart party they're hoping you'll pick up your online order for a pickup discount. walmart doesn't have a time guarantee for that, but kohl's is aiming to have your online order ready for pickup in just two hours. one thing walmart and kohl's are not doing, they're not waviivin the minimum threshold. it's $35 minimum for free shipping for walmart and $50 minimum for kohl's unless you spend $600 yearly, you get it for free walmart and kohl's ceo-elect say they are confident in their inventory planning and walmart, in fact, says the goal is to never be out of stock.

when it comes to black friday and cyber monday those are the big days and kohl's says it's going to be aggressive this season in fact, it's the first one, really, out with its plaque friday and cyber monday plans and door busters are out today we actually have the black friday ad from kohl's. >> already >> right here and many of the deals are available to preview online kohl's is coming out of the gate and many retailers wait for the week or so before. some are for competitive reasons and they keep you going back >> will never, ever go to anything called a doorbuster. >> it's actually really fun. >> it's a tradition in the midwest and other parts of the country. before i was a retail reporter, every year. >> really? >> with my aunts, we did it every year we'd get the one hot toy that my browninger brother wanted and then we would shop for ourselves. >> we have a trampling class later on today in case you're wondering. you have to have sharp elbows. >> people are nice, actually >> per your recommendation, i'll give you a second thought. >> it really gets you in the

holiday spirit. >> nothing gets you in the holiday spirit than running over people to get a toy. >> those are extreme cases in the midwest people are quite nice our experience was always very pleasant. >> true they are >> you're one of them. >> she's from oakwood, ohio. >> close enough. >> facebook, twitter and google facing their second day of grilling on the hill are new regulations in the future are any regulations in the future for the companies and if so, would it hurt the bottom nendour investments in them a big discussion coming up most etfs only track a benchmark. flexshares etfs are built around the way investors think. with objectives like building capital for the future, managing portfolio risk and liquidity and generating income. that's real etf innovation. flexshares. built by investors, for investors. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing

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hello, everyone. i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. at a meeting with his cabinet in the white house, president trump commenting on the attacker who killed eight people on a bike path in new york city yesterday saying he would consider sending him to guantanamo bay. >> i would certainly consider that yes. i would certainly consider that. send him to gitmo. i would certainly consider that. >> the u.s. voting against a u.n. general assembly resolution calling for an end to the u.s. trade embargo on cuba. the 193-member general assembly

adopted the resolution 191-2, israel, the only country to vote with the united states on a lighter note, starbucks unveiling its 2017 holiday cup it features a color-in yourself message, give good the company says the idea behind that campaign is to give to those near and dear to you along with strangers in your community and to give a gift that helps the planet it's that time of year that's the news update at this hour michelle, back to you. >> got it, sue thank you. we'll look at the markets in the wake of the decision on interest rates by the fed the s&p higher by nearly four and the nasdaq is lower down about 19 points and it went gangbusters, and we have facebook later today some of you movers, estee lauder and garmin are leading the s&p garmin higher by 5.5% and estee lauder higher by 9%. revenue and guidance fell short of estimates and that stock is

off nearly 5%. sounds like a broken record, but general electric down again. its eighth straight day in negative territory, lower by a half a percent. >> wow meantime, the oil market closing for the day and let's find out how oil has done with jackie deangelis. >> we were in positive ter fore for most of the session. the session high was $55.22, just shy of its high so far this year this morning's inventory report pretty bullish a more than 2 million barrel draw in crude and more than 4 million barrel draw in gasoline. it is back to the pre-hurricane levels and less than 50,000 barrels a day from its peak and that's bearish some say there are reasons to go higher from here and new figures show almost complete compliance and the eia showing goas demand and these levels are the ones to sell back to you.

>> thank you very much, jackie facebook has seen exponential growth if the past few years both in active users and market value the stock is up 757% over the past five years. can it continue that breakneck rate of growth julia boorstin here with the numbers. julia? >> hey, tyler. with facebook shares hitting another all-time high today, investors and analysts certainly seem confident in the company's growth potential over 90% of facebook analysts have a buyer over rate rating on the stock, a stock which has gained about 40% in the past 12 months and that's a year where the company admitted mismanagement issues and scrutiny in enabling russian manipulation of the election analysts expect facebook to grow earnings 17.5% to $1.28 per share while revenue is projected to grow 40% to over 9.8 billion and there are a couple of key topics to watch. facebook warned ad growth would

slow down starting next quarter and we'll have to see how much instagram as well as video ads can help drive growth. we're also looking for details on facebook's commitment to spending on content to buildup its watch platform costs will certainly be in focus especially as facebook just yesterday said it would double its employees focused on its safety and security to 20,000 by the end of next year and of course, we'll be listening for commentary on the growing scandal on facebook's ads and the proposed regulation now in the works. back to you. >> something we'll discuss right now. thank you very much, julia as she hinted, facebook getting ready to report. executives from the company along with google and twitter are getting grilled on capitol hill over russian not fearence in the 2016 election this has been going on for two days now joining us is mark lee, good to have you here. >> hi, michelle. >> i'll get to the hearings in a

second these are a big, vent and there's something else that happened wpp reported earnings, advertising company. bad again. facebook is ultimately an advertising company, right if things are going bad for advertisers at should point don't they go badly for facebook >> yeah, you would think so. you wonder then whether the wpp issues are specific to wpp i think that's a decent thesis, but i'll leave that aside. look, we track every six months we ask advertisers about 800 of them that are on the facebook platform about the intentions for the next 12 months and we ran this in september. we saw 66% of current facebook advertisers plan to increase their budget allocations to facebook and spend more with facebook over the next 12 months and it was a record high for us, and i know there's been debate over the reporting metrics and the political campaigns and the use and misuse of facebook during the elections and from an advertiser's perspective, this is an increasingly important platform and they're shifting

more of the dollars there and we don't think there will be a dramatic slowdown for facebook because of that. >> even though as julia reports, ad growth could slow down. you're saying the secular shift from people skipping it, it appears, wpp and going directly to facebook is enough to offset that do i read that correctly >> michelle, i think so. i heard julia speak. i think the company may have been trying to at the margin maybe manage expectations a little bit last year, trying to keep people low. i'll stick with our advertiser surveys and the results that we've seen over the last couple of quarters are very consistent growth this is 17 quarters in a row of about 50%-plus year-over-year growth of course it will fade and you can't sustain it for that long, but look at what google just told you they've had ad revenue growth accelerate and they've had 20% year-over-year growth. if you execute well and you have new revenue streams and check out facebook you have instagram and you still have the messaging assets and you're rolling in more video

inventory and i don't think there's more reason to accept the ad revenue growth and we like the stock right here. >> we had a guest on yesterday who said the hearings on capitol hill yesterday were the moment that changed everything. it was a seminal moment in the evolution of the three companies that were there. >> do you see it that way? >> no, i don't i disagree with that it's -- follow the money and where advertisers want to spend their campaigns. i don't want to be glib about it you're telling me if somebody spends money on facebook, they can influence an election campaign it's got good roi and i'll put my money there and that's what the survey suggests consistently over the last five years the open question is whether there will be a new cost element that will dramatically change the cost structure i doubt that, but you know, who knows how the stuff will play out? i think that would also be probably a little bit way of an

overreaction to this this is the first time we've ever seen this kind of foreign influence in the election. man we go back 200 years. >> there are always in elections, but -- >> and we're not immune to that either. >> oh, no! >> mark, can i change the conversation just a bit off the elections? sure. >> is there a bigger risk to facebook than just facebook boredom? >> yes i know a lot of people have been on it for a while and are, you know, yeah okay there are my friend's kids and they're good looking and there are some cats and i'm being a little bit funny and a little serious and it's just like, people like facebook i can live without it. >> we think about three big risks to the big platforms and the stocks and we think about government and we think about competition and maturity and it is an open question for facebook they have 2 billion users and i think they have 75% of every internet user in the world outside of china on their

platform you're running out of people to add to the platform, and the question is will it continue to innovate like it has in the last five years to make it more and more entertaining and more and more useful for us and i'll have to bet that they will. i'm not too worried about the boredom, but there is a limit to how much higher the numbers can go, but i want to remind you, the advertising revenue on facebook is a quarter that of google and there's no particular reason yet ad revenue has to hit a ceiling in the next two, three or four. >> mark mahainy. >> thanks, michele the business of the silver screen could be losing some of the shine. if you check out shares of theater operators like regal entertainment, amc, for example, those shares lower due in part to a "wall street journal" report saying the entertainment giant disney is seeking distribution terms for its movies and namely the next installment of "the star wars"

franchise. they'll mandate a minimum four-week run for the movie or theaters get penalized disney looks like it's trying to use its lucas film and marvel studios division as leverage, getting the theaters to comply to show the blockbusters and still it's having a mark effect for the diestributors up on the screen >> thank you casual dining options like the cheesecake factory, chili's, applebys, their stocks have been whacked this year. why? what's wrong with the jan bradys of restaurants the middle child we'll find out, plus to rick santelli with your bond report rick >> thanks, sully >> dollar index gives you a good glimpse of what happened yesterday. the dollar index is fighting and it's close to the highs of the session, and it hasn't had a settlement above 95. pay attention to that level. when it comes to two year, it's all about automatic scaling,

folks. yes, 1.60 to 1.62 is the range and it held up well today. the 10-year made its high yield at adp at 8:15 eastern and it started to get held and it had the downward yield before the fed ever occurred to the statement and now it's kind of right back there's not a lot to glean by the markets today, but i will continue to reference they're holding up very close to recent high yields, and with the big jobs report on friday and that could be a culminating factor and one thing that you don't want to do is touch that remote un" lle "power lchwi return after these messages. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing,

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in the world of dining fast food is pretty hot right now the super high end, super hot. you know what's not hot? that mid-market casual sitdown restaurant space, the jan bradys of the restaurant world as i call them. eve plum kate rogers is here with more on what the problems are with applebee's, chili's and everybody else. >> a few major trends are happening. this base is simply overcrowded. moody's did highlight this in a

recent note saying despite softness in foot traffic, restaurants continue to open new units mentioning lease constraints may be an issue there. since 2012, they added chili's and maggiano's and consumers are more particular on where they're spending their cash and it comes at a time when casual dining chains have raised their prices and shifted menus around and they're not increasing food quality while fast food names like mcdonald's are lowering their cost and increasing options for diners another reason is continually cheaper to shop at the grocery store than it is to go out to eat and a final, but very important factor is teen spending pipe jaffray reported food and restaurants are big focal points for teens who tend to migrate to the fast, casual and quick service space. that's up 35% compared to the cheesecake factory and the casual dining sector down 25 and

32% respectively. >> kate, thank you very much >> kate rogers despite tough competition and a drop in their stock prices as kate just illustrated our next guest remains bullish on some key, casual dining players here now is restaurant analyst stephen anderson at maxim group. >> thanks for having me on >> what's ailing and you still like a lot of the stocks, and we'll get to that in a moment, but what's ailing the casual sector >> to reference the report there's been an increase in quality among the limited service restaurants and panera and chipotle have higher quality and also relatively lower average ticket compared to the casual dining chains and that's been a factor for much of the past decade and nothing new to report there, but with we think has been affecting casual dining has been the rise of some of the more delivery services and also that's been hurting some of the casual dining, and the casual

diners are starting to fight back in that regard. >> it seems to me that an awful lot of them feel very tired or the same. >> a standout in this space has been texas roadhouse, why? >> we have a buy rating on the stock and a $60 price target texas roadhouse stands out to us as being the value leader in the mid-scale steakhouse segment and that includes names like outback and longhorn the lower average ticket compared to national competition. what they also mastered is being able to get more efficiencies in the four walls of the restaurant, being only open for dinner on weekdays and limited weekend hours, as well >> that enables them to maximize the profitability of each restaurant >> my observation on them is that they have resisted the temptation to oversaturate

markets with location, number one. number two, they're extremely choosy about the locations they choose they know who their customer is and they know what locations work for them. >> that's correct. even with that, they're still growing at a roughly 5% unit growth rate and there's still a lot of runway for them particularly in the western united states where there's not a lot of steakhouse competition. >> you like brinker, cheesecake and darden is not on your list why don't you talk about those two and then mention darden. >> we do like darden we do have a buy rating after the stock being pulled back. we like what they've done with olive garden they've been leading the way for the last two, two and a half years and have made their to-go business a lynchpin for that recovery cheesecake factory has had a bit of a stumble over the summer and we allow that being tied to recent hurricanes as well as a poor summer movie season they're scheduled to report tonight. i do think they might have a weak quarter >> wait, the movies impact sales

here because people go to cheesecake factory before they go to the movies if they don't go to the movies they don't go to cheesecake? >> that does hurt them among with some of the others and think about cheesecake factory as part of leading the renaissance of the a-level malls and these are the higher-end -- >> they're largely mall-based. >> as for the concern about cheesecake factory, we find they're existing in the nation's malls and they're in the b and c malls and not anchored by tenants and the apple store and a store of the like and you'll see a cheesecake factory >> apple cheesecake. >> stephen, thank you very much. >> seasons 52 of darden has done a nice job it's a higher end. going one tonight. >> it reminds me of papa john's and football they're correlated. >> we're not doing anything. no one is going to the games and no one is going to the movies. >> very true >> social media burnout. >> new vehicle sales for the month of october are out and

once again, bigger is better sales of the little small and mid-sized cars remain in the slump while pickup trucks and manly suvs continue to boom. gm reporting an overall sales drop of 2.3% and the consumer side down about 6% and however, ford, with the get this, guys driven by a nearly 16% jump in sales of its f-series pickup trucks bigger, better all right. think the returns on the fang names have been impressive check out shares of activision ts have the traders ahead of i results tonight.

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all right. shares of gaming stock activision blizzarded in the red today by still up 80% on the year, making it one of the best performing tech stocks of the year how do you play it if you want to own it? let's find out 80%, that's a lot. can you still make money on atvi >> look, i mean, here's the deal in our opinion, i got to give our analysts kudos earlier this month, downgraded atvi and went cautious on the entire group into earnings his entire premise is that

competition is heating up immensely and 2018 growth assumptions are too high, not achievable so atvi specifically, i mean, he came over on the squawk today, talked about the stock he expects the quarter will be fine probably raise but earnings expectations are baked into the stock price here. any pop on friday morning out of earnings is a sell the stock is basically sideways or dead money, at least for the near term, in his opinion. don't forget as well on friday, there's an industry conference that they hold where we expect to get some sort of guidance, if you will, about product announcements, probably as muted. you could see the stock fall out of bed friday afternoon if there is a positive upside surprise from earnings friday morning >> but the chart, according to you, still says buy. >> yeah, i'll take the other side of that argument. activision is a high-momentum stock. it does warrant a buy rating in our work the thing with these high-momentum stocks, they can do nothing for months at a time, butt but the assumption is the longer

term strength ultimately continues higher i think that's whaing what's going on for activision. it's traded at a range between $60 and $66. given the positive momentum score, given the rising 00-day moving average, given top-down actually winds from a relatively strong tech sector, we're buy rated on it, overweight. we think it's more likely that you get an upside breakout than a downside break >> all right there we go. that's why we do it both ways. thank you. trading nation has a lot more segments check, please, next. and now the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> using limited orders will ensure you don't pay too much for the stocks you buy or get too little for the ones you sell markets tend to gap up and down at the open more frequently

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check, plea. >> time for check, please. in all our talk about the tax bill, the new fed chief, the fed, the jobs, what we haven't talked a lot about is what is really going to be interesting next week, and that is presiden trump's trip to asia it's a long trip, 12 days, multiple stops korea, the philippines

it'll be interesting to see how it plays out it is of high consequence and high import. >> longest trip to asia for a president ever, i believe. papa john's getting hammered the founder of the company blaming the nfl, saying the anthem controversy has been poorly handled speaking directly to the nfl in saying you're hurting our shareholders the founder was a trump supporter, donated to donald trump. certainly on the same side of the issue. the stock has had a tough year already. down almost 28% year to date >> mine is a little bit -- it's sports related but a little different. if you could buy shares of ballpark frank, maybe you should i think tonight is going to be a huge baseball night. i think chris "mad dog" rousseau is right he said he thought 30 million people would watch tonight's game they did about 19 million people last night so it would be a big jump, but it's a game seven. i think it's going -- i think he's right

30 million people watching >> i'll take the under on that i think it'll be closer to 25 million. >> what are we betting >> i don't know. a papa john's pizza. how about that >> done. >> all right >> pepperoni >> thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starting right no uh tonight you have to stay up late late >> this drives me crazy. turn it off in the fifth inning and everything happens that's the third or fourth time this has happened. i'm going to boycott based on the timing principle alone of these games. couldn't they start an hour or an hour and a half early >> it's already 5:00 in the afternoon in los angeles. >> i'm amazed viewership is up at all >> we'll be right with you, it's okay >> welcome to "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans at the new york stocks exchange. >> and i'm bil