he said you have the job, then he kept talking another 45 minutes, and i just sat there not sure what i was supposed to say. >> i had an interview where the interviewer kept talking to someone else, and then months later i found out i got the job. "fast money" starts right now, live from the nasdaq market site i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. intel is about to come to a screeching halt, we will explain why. plus a twitter employee goes rogue and targets trump. is the president's twitter feed the biggest risk for the rally then later, the bitcoin boom might be an understatement

one of the biggest bill coin bulls is tapping the breaks. first, the world is going nuts over the iphone x, people across the globe from sydney, australia, beijing, and palo alto, california, lining up for the, quote, transformative phone. let's go to josh lipton in palo alto where x marked the spot josh, long lines still >> reporter: michelle, listen, we know apple were first to this as the future of the smartphone. so the iphone x going on sale today including at this store you guys see behind me in downtown palo alto, california in what has become a traditional, michelle, apple's ceo tim cook was at the store here this morning welcoming customers. we caught up with some of those fans that were waiting online here we asked them what was exciting to them about this new device. >> money really isn't the issue, it's more of the fact that you get the better camera.

>> the new screen seems really cool, the oled yeah, i guess you could argue it makes taking photos more fun >> it's got a nice camera where you can do some emoji stuff, facial, i'm not a selfie guy, but it's cool. >> reporter: investors are betting this x will be a winner. that's helped send apple stock up 50% so far this year. we also know apple fans do tend to be a loyal bunch. ubs conducted a recent survey of iphone buyers who were interested in buying a new device 95% said they would stick with apple. that's versus 53% for samsung. the question, though, is what iphone they're going to buy and when it's going to be available. tim cook telling me that the ramp for that x is improving, but couldn't say for sure when apple would come into supply/demand balance for that new phone. michelle >> thank you very much, josh lipton it's not just apple that's dominating listen to this, the combined market cap of apple, microsoft,

and affect now $2.3 trillion, nearly the entire market cap of the russell 2,000 in its entirety, it's called the russ russell 2,000 because there's 2,000 caps the russell is small caps. >> it represents more of the u.s. economy so now you have three stocks that are this big. listen, they can grow as big as they need to grow in this environment. we've got good economic news today. these stocks can continue to go. but you should just be aware that this creates some kind of a systemic risk. i don't mean systemic risk like we had in 2008 i mean for the market, in that if these things start to weaken, you have a lot of capital tied up here that's going to reverse itself >> michelle, welcome to the show, great to have you here on friday >> thank you >> i look at the multiple on apple and on google, these are places where big funds, big investors and small investors can put a lot of capacity to work with fresh data points.

i look at apple, to me we're getting to a place where the euphoria around apple being in the absolute perfect zone is starting to resemble where we were a couple of times when we put in some major tops that's not necessarily what i'm saying we do here. but i do think there's places in big tech, remember, these are global companies >> you're suggesting apple is one of them because it still isn't very expensive when it comes to other tech. >> when i think about apple relative to itself, it's traded between ten and 16 times, it's somewhere around 14 times next year right now should it be trading at the upper end of the range it should be should it be trading at 16 times? if you want to do that, we can put a number, 210 on this. >> apple had achieved finally what it had been pushing for, for people to start thinking about it as a software company software companies get a bigger multiple in the market than a hardware company >> that's pete's argument. >> kevin's a little late to that

game because the story has been services where does the growth have to come from? it's going to be services. >> we weren't convinced they were going to be able to do it >> absolutely. with the billion plus units out there and the people attracted, there is absolute growth going to continue there. the big question is, how fast can they grow in china, in india, and we're already starting to see some of those numbers. and the pent up demand in china and some of the growth in india, tim knows that better than i do, it's unbelievable, it doubled. you're looking at china, growth potential, which they have the cycle that's going on right now, it's time. it's upgrade time. i look at microsoft, you've got the whole cloud world. that's their version of services that's that smaller portion that continues to grow. and that's a transitional space. there are three stocks that you just mentioned at the top, all of which, if you look at where the growth area is, they're all too cheap. i think there's plenty of upside in all three >> anybody bearish >> in some names you have to be. in microsoft, for example, we forget that microsoft is north of a half a trillion dollars in market cap now

you're talking about a stock, 22 times forward earnings, that has transitioned itself into a new business, it justifies that valuation. >> after that ten years of being -- >> it's amazing. it's amazing what they've done >> without question. but i would say this about apple. when pete and everybody started talking about services about apple, it represented anywhere from 8 to 10% of their revenues. seemingly each quarter it goes up by a percent. we're up to 16% right now. in that trajectory continues, we'll be in the low 20s by sometime late next year, early 2019 >> all the concerns about them being a one trick pony -- >> right how about the miscellaneous? miscellaneous in apple right now -- >> is a huge business. >> $12.6 billion >> i know. >> on miscellaneous. >> any other company would love that >> you look at facebook, what was their revenue this last quarter? it was $10 billion you look at apple, just at

services, $10 billion. you're talking about $30 billion annually right now and it's growing. >> is tax reform priced into any of these tech stocks they have so much cash, $268 billion for apple. they could repatriate that, do something transformative microsoft could. >> i think apple is starting to price in tax reform four years ago when they started doing swaps, which was another way of bringing cash back, giving cash back to investors. remember carl icahn, remember the pressure on this company to be more capital markets friendly to investors i think a lot of this is there to assume that suddenly -- look, the day that we get a 12% repatriation to hard cash is the day the stock will rally largely we've done that. >> to explain, we've watched apple borrow money when it has no need to borrow money because it has so much money the reason it borrows money is because the money is trapped overseas, they want to pay a

dividend, they don't want to repatriate the money to pay the dividend >> these guys are such a big company at a time when rates are so low, it made sense for them to do bond deals >> another reason is how they handle the financial side of this whole thing >> they're like an independent little family office, imagine -- >> there's a -- let's go the to the bear case. there's too much euphoria. everybody likes it >> it makes me nervous [ simultaneous speaking >> i can't stand all the positivity, i have to give the bear case. the bear case is that services are not going to grow, that there's a misstep and all of a sudden, what do you have left? a company that just sold their biggest product, massive product, and that's it so you better hope that services grow in this >> but is it hope or potential fact when you're looking at the cycle in china and the growth in india, international 62% now >> that's what the market is pricing in now

what's the bear case something you don't expect you don't expect that perhaps china doesn't come in like we're thinking you don't expect that services don't increase >> this is three refreshes ago not necessarily you, i get what you're saying, but people were saying, they can't innovate, it's a hardware company. and then apple can thank tesla, it can thank amazon, for companies getting multiples based on the businesses we think they're going to be in apple pay is unbelievable. the apple operating system for apple car, whatever we're going to call this, the smart home, the apple home, these are all places they will absolutely be competing and they -- >> how about the growth of apple pay this past quarter? >> tell me >> 300 plus percent. that's all >> here's where you have a bear argument the market overall, we're capping the week here remember the market overall this week, outside of those big cap stocks, struggled. let's be clear about this. and i think you're seeing a lot of stuff that's trading near

their bottoms, a lot of things starting to break down today, industrials, transports, financials, retail, were all down again -- [ simultaneous speaking >> around the horn here. >> i mean, the risk -- on the bigger macro picture, again, the risk is we have very good economic news, rising rates and a rising dollar. >> hold on who is buying apple at these highs? you're not, obviously. >> no, wouldn't. i wouldn't sell it either. if i own it, i'm long. >> disingenuous for me to say buy it here, i'll let the other side of the desk handle this one. >> i'm long some apple i also said i didn't need to buy into earnings. to be clear, i'm not necessarily needing to step in and buy what i think is a decent valuation for a company that probably could trade at a higher multiple >> i think there's plenty outside, katie huberty moved it up to 200, she was already 199 she talked about $16 earnings,

$13 earnings this company is miraculous i added calls going into earnings i'm going to hold on to those through december this thing will go faster to the upside than people think >> this company is miraculous. >> giddy-up. >> i get nervous coming up, snap, it's earning season reporting, social media, if history is any clue, it could get worse next week we'll break it down. tom lee, is everything okay with him he'll be here shortly. twitter's rogue employee pulled the plug on president trump's account. is it still at risk? what could that mean forhe t market much more "fast money" after this

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welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin on a tear. the crypto currency hitting another all-time high today and surging more than 600% so far this year. climbing $2,000 in the past couple of weeks, trading up 7,195, getting even more legitimacy, the cme announcing

it will launch bitcoin futures and amazon bought three crypto currency related domain names. everyone seems to be jumping on the bitcoin bandwagon. one of wall street's bitcoin bulls is jumping off tom lee joins us now going too far, too fast? >> well, let me start by saying i think for the vast majority of those who are believers in bitcoin, they should ignore what happens in the short term. we still think bitcoin is worth multiples of where it is five years ago. you can think about how bitcoin is valued based on wallet growth and transaction activity and for the last three years, 94% of the movement of bitcoin has been explained by a simple equation reflecting those two. >> which is? >> we use a function of the number of wallets plus a coefficient for the average transaction value. it's basically how much engagement in there. the premium to bitcoin to that equation today is around 42%, which is the highest since 2014.

we thought maybe take a step back >> what is the low >> over the last -- since inception, the premium has been zero historically, either cheap to it, that means you have to buy it with strong hands, you're buying at discount to fundamental, but now at 44% premium it's gotten as high at 65 44 is the highest in three years. >> your 2022 price target is 25,000 >> correct i think that's much more -- >> much more expansive use of it in terms of it being an actual currency >> that's right. when he project bitcoin into 2018, we're assuming a 90% deceleration of the growth rate. at the moment today, contemporaneous metrics, it's expensive. it may be wishful thinking bitcoin doesn't have to go down.

we're saying it's at a premium >> you're saying transactions go down by 90% or the growth rate -- >> the growth rate decelerates we made that forecast in august when bitcoin was in the 4,000 range. we thought 6,000 is where it could be in mid-'18. activity has been stronger, there's a huge, vibrant community, a lot has been happening. but on the current metric, without projecting growth, bitcoin should be valued more an 5,500. you know what, it's just a model. it doesn't mean anything, for us it's just saying we want to just take a short term break, hoping for a better entry point but it may not happen. bitcoin could continue to be the juggernaut it is

>> thank you, tom. you're going to get some nasty e-mails from the bitcoin -- >> no, tom's been in this long term >> measured on the approach here, which is that this has clearly got -- what i think people are trying to do is put a valuation and apply numbers to something that i think a lot of people -- you could make an argument that the valuation metrics for people looking at bitcoin and transaction load could, you know, still be throwing darts somewhere >> look, we're all trying to figure it out. how duvao you value this new ty of asset what has worked and what continues to work. what makes sense is using transaction volume because it's kind of like eyeballs, how many monthly active users you have on facebook or twitter. it's akin to that. but listen, tom was talking about a stale number my target at the beginning of the year for bitcoin was 2500. and that i thought was aggressive so this moves very much with

transaction growth and you have to make those assumptions. you know, if you're in it, stay in it. still ahead, papa john's is about to do something that could spell even more trouble for the in them. we'll tell what you that is. and in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast. snap out of it >> that's what investors hope snap shares will do when the social giant reports earnings. and there may be more pain ahead. we'll break it down. plus here's what's happened to traders who have tried to short chip stocks this month but something just happened that might change that. we'll tell what you it is when "fast money" returns looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country.

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welcome back to "fast money. we got a news alert on papa john's, let's get to dom chu with the details >> reporter: "the wall street journal" has interviewed some execs at papa john's pizza they're saying the executives are looking to maybe refocus or reevaluate their sponsorship deal with the nfl. you may recall that papa john's mentioned during their earnings conference call maybe some of their declining saleswere due to the anthem protest and declining viewership for the nfl. one of their executives says they're looking to reevaluate tv

focused advertising, many things are now digitally focused. they want take a look at the -- at least the program of advertising that they have of course we all know that between peyton manning and a lot of the nfl stars, j.j. watt, that are on those commercials, they're very tv centric for right now. the pizza company got into a little bit of controversy when they blamed the nfl for their falling sales. >> got it, dom, thank you. is this the right move for papa john's >> i don't know if it's the right move or not but it says more about roger goodell and how they've reacted to a lot of the issues that have caused ratings to start to plummet. this is over a year ago and this year it's gotten worse and worse. it's the anthem but also now we're getting all these injuries the game is a little less interesting. it's getting that much easier for the sponsors to say, you know what, i would rather be somewhere he alselse, in the dil world, rather than on tv >> if the ratings are down that far, why would you want to spend money on the sponsorship, save

some money and redeploy it somewhere else where it's going to more effective. >> i agree with that papa john's has to be careful because they're taking a stand, they're saying you've got to do something about this >> he could alienate viewers who are supportive of the players. >> absolutely. >> political risk. >> that's the problem here if you're spending money on advertising and it's not working, then pull the advertising. that's it. it's a business decision only. but i agree with tim that this is edging on the political commentary, which could be -- >> they're out there in the middle of this and i don't think they intended to be. >> but this actually starts with roger goodell not being proactive. >> it doesn't matter >> right, but this might not be the only sponsor, guys i know what you're saying, but sponsorship money from others could easily get pulled into this >> is there risks for the networks that carry football is this an indication that lower advertising revenues are going

to start to accompany sports >> it's on streaming there's a fundamental change going on in the business so yes, this -- >> you think people are streaming football >> people are streaming everything >> right, but the decline in the nfl is not because of streaming. >> no. what i'm saying, this is one more thing that's going to be the nail in the coffin >> all right >> i would simply say that i am concerned about peak sports. that's something that's going on in the media center and franchises and the inability to find a balance >> too much supply when you can see football, you know, all the time remember when they did "who wants to be a millionaire" five nights a week. >> burned it up. >> it reminds me of the opera, i can go see "la boheme" six times a week >> you don't pronounce the "h,"

darling. >> she's an opera connoisseur. >> instead of watching game 7, i went to the opera. there was a lot of availability that night but what about all these networks that carry football, should they start to worry >> yes the problem is that the attention span of the viewers has gotten difficult that's what the nfl has got to get their arms around, how to keep the game moving faster. get ready to turn back your clocks, it's daylight savings this weekend, practically a fall ritual our traders are giving you stocks to fall back on >> home depot, fall back on home depot, a great company, nothing says fall like home depot. >> fall mulching >> we talked about it last week, makes sense, that time of year they're always in transition the buildup online has been incredible >> tim seymour >> i will be mulching oih.

valuations are starting to catch up to the move in oil. >> i will not be mulching this weekend. bitcoin and cme group. >> fallback onto railroads >> all the cool kids will be mulching >> right on. >> that does it for "fast money. "options action" starts next ronoh really?g's going on at schwab. thank you clients? well jd power did just rank them highest in investor satisfaction with full service brokerage firms... again.

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hey there, we are live at the nasdaq market site the guys are getting ready behind me. while they're doing that, here's what's coming up on the show >> oh, you can find me any day at macy's. >> what's macy's >> it's a stock that's lost half its value this year. the chart suggests it's going even lower on earnings next week we'll tell you how to cash in. plus here's what chip stocks have been doing this month ♪ up up and away >> but if you missed the move, we've got a way you can still make money and it's