manufacturers and distribute them it sounds like it's not going to disrupt the distributors so much as provide a service for drug companies like merck, interestingly. >> it is interesting there is an attack on this part of the food chain and pharmaceuticals in general everybody knows it's a huge market to go through that's it for us happy thanksgiving >> happy thanksgiving. "closing bell" is "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," it's an amazon takeover. tech guru and "fast money" friend roger mcnamee will be here to talk about how high he sees the stock going plus the man who called the market rally says there's one thing keeping him up at night.

marco colon marco kolanovic will be here black friday retailers are probably dreaming of something like this. ♪ you know the days of black fridays past when people would literally lose their minds, trample over over here to get the newest tv, moms would threaten mortal combat if you dared take the last beanie baby or furby off the shelves but the reality is black friday may look something like this yep, you see it there. everyone huddled around their computer or smartphone, clicking away, skipping the entire in-store experience. will it be black and blue friday for retailers or will their dreams come true guy adami. >> you know where i won't be that whole running into people >> i'm sharpening my elbows, i'm coming after you >> what could be a worse experience i won't get into people, what if they eaten the day before and

the sights and smells of this. i digress. >> you just did. >> for some people this is a huge deal, though. you heard courtney reagan talking about, pete najarian will be at the mall of america for a little bit people this is a big deal i think some retailers win we've seen that in some of these stocks target had a nice run to the upside, gave some weak guidance. the $58 level is interesting nordstrom's to me is the one that sticks out like a sore thumb. not that people are flocking to nordstrom's on friday, so don't give me that what i will say, you have a huge double bottom, a decent quarter on november 10th, a significant short interest, and the potential for positive headlines. i like target this friday. >> you can avoid the department stores altogether. in the last week we saw home depot and walmart make new highs. the guys who have been actually

making improvement, making inroads, competing better with amazon, are going to continue to do well, that's pretty clear the flip side of that is that any gains you'll see in the next few months i think from these more traditional department stores, i think it will be very short-lived. once we get out of the holiday season, you'll see some of the problems competing that we've seen for the last couple of years. >> isn't buying walmart -- >> to me, i think all mart has a lot of ground to give up on the downside based upon the expectations that these guys have suddenly converted into an e-commerce story we're at a place here, two things are happening what you're starting to see is some of the brick and mortar physical location retailers leveraging their online play amazon, we just got done talking about how they're using whole foods as a place to leverage their physical asset place the concept that some of these department stores have played themselves out of business is overdone you know i'm long macy's this is his first holiday

season, they've had 12 straight quarters of downward sales, i don't think it changes overnight. but they've changed their in-store experience and the expectations are zero for them you've heard it multiple times in the last couple of months >> the xrt has not been above 42 for six months it's been trading below. >> it's been trading sideways for six months, dan. >> it's down for the year. >> i don't care. the down trade is yesterday's trade. it probably bottomed six months ago. >> you know how i feel about macy's, i don't love the stock but you have to look at the 7% dividend yield people want to see that. i'm not going to buy the stock because of the yield, but the reality is it's probably not -- i think headline coming into this black friday, i guess the question is who is going to win and who is going to lose walmart will get a lot of fanfare eadlines, you'll see fights, hear about fights, people running in and getting stuff cheap. the reality, brands will win adidas i still love. skechers those are names that will

continue to dominate mainly because they've got that brand, you know, sort of set up >> in terms of getting things really cheap, though, you have to think about the retailers that can afford to offer those cheap discounts on a black friday and throughout the holiday season and still do okay who can bankroll that sort of promising and survive? >> i think walmart can bank roll that kind of promotion and survive. to a lesser extent, target but there are experienced stores where they don't necessarily have to do that. earlier this year, restoration hardware was going out of business according to a lot of people we talked about it it was probably 14 or 15 or so months ago look at what this stock has done over the course of the last year it's gone from 30 to 98 and change a lot of it has to do with huge short interest a lot of it has to do with they figured it out, changed their business model and got it right. r.h. is probably in nosebleed

territory. i give you r.h >> i'm a little early,it got shorted at 42. i'm not expecting a blowout at year end i fully expect, you talked about promotions, i fully expect it to be, despite some of the softness -- or excuse me, what do you want to call it, the good data on consumer confidence, that sort of thing it will be a promotional period. what's going on here is pretty clear. don't think for a second that apple will be sucking air out of the retail room. this phone has been at capacity strength it's disappointing that apple doesn't have a home pod. we're talking about retail one of the ways that amazon will get a lot of people over the next week to their website, they'll offer great promotions on alexa, all those devices. that's wheone of the hottest selling consumer items out there. amazon will have a draw. apple will be sucking a lot of air out too. >> i think that's true you mentioned what's very important here this is as big of a tailwind

going into this holiday season as retailers have had in maybe a decade think about consumer confidence, think about where the currency has been think about where inventories are for these guys they've had two years to get inventories in line. no one's going to be surprised by this. the other thing, black friday started two days ago i'm two tv sets long into the season already at best buy, i got 55 inches of power going into my bedroom. >> tiffany is another one, high end, that's going to do well being levered up, their balance sheet, aggressively bought back stock. completely egregious in my opinion. that stock is a sell here. >> i don't usually ask the questions, but can i ask a question to me it just seems like these guys are not much off the recent lows who is the buyer of these things >> at this point who is the seller if you owned a lot of these

dysfunctional names, you're out the door like the energy setup was, when everybody purged their energy. who is the seller? whoever wanted to get out is out. >> i'm long macy's from 1940 to me this is not a trade i'm hoping for based upon a $28 price. to me the valuation is probably stuck past 26 bucks. but this thing should be trading at 6 1/2 to 7 times, sub the historical ten-year. there's an optionality there that's why i'm long the stock. it's not that backed up. >> do you buy the retailer, the company that is brooks -- bricks and mortar's worst nightmare, amazon >> we're playing the amazon game now. >> it's all the amazon game. >> there's no reason to take your foot off the gas at amazon. >> ross said it last night

>> just because he says it doesn't mean you believe it. you believe it >> in the case of rich ross, i believe it >> the landscape for amazon still is, their third, fourth inning we put a report out yesterday about their pharmacy business and their attempt to come in and what's the smoothest pathway for them to do it is to acquire rite aid. >> the risk is execution on these grandiose plans. when you think about it, aws was launched ten years ago this was a story that amazon investors were very, very comfortable with and they were waiting for it to pay off and it did. is subsidized them growing their market share in retail now, they're doing things with bricks and mortar in retail. if the stock has a meaningful correction because of execution, we'll look back and say, that was kind of obvious, it was a shift, they're going into content, they have twitch, they're doing so many different things >> amazon could ruin retail's black friday it's already got its next target

in sight, health care. the online giant's cloud business set to announce a deal with a health tech company for more let's bring in elevation partner's co-founder roger mcnamee, roger, great to have you with us is there a business that amazon can't disrupt? it's the assumption that amazon enters a business and they will disrupt it >> i think there's a lot of momentum in that hypothesis. if you look at it, the reality is that amazon is the world's most successful player in cloud services and any industry that has been reluctant to adopt cloud services has been at risk of being disrupted by amazon. and i think health care is one of the places where the cloud has had much less intact than it could have or should have. so i think, you know, i disagree with david's point relative to the risk on execution next year on this issue, simply because i just don't think it's driving the numbers. so i look at this and say, yes,

i do think some of these things will take longer to matter than the ideal. but you do think they will be successful with it i think the deal with serner, i suspect it will accomplish something valuable for them, create a beach head on which they can build more things at the moment, as you guys said just a few minutes ago, this is a great year for the retail side of amazon, a great year for retail in general. amazon is going to gain some share. i'm not sure who the losers were but they'll have a really good christmas. that's all you need to know if you own the stock. >> what's interesting, roger, amazon can go deeper into the sectors that have depressed valuations, let's put it they can buy bricks and mortar, a sector that's not been doing well, that's seen depressed valuations it can go deeper into content. we've seen the media companies struggle this year, and its

valuation goes up. why the assumption that it can go deeper in these businesses and the valuation goes higher as opposed to falling to match the valuation of the sectors it's going into >> i don't have the crystal ball to say how that will turn out. the statistics show that in the united states would you ha united states we have wildly more retail square footage on the ground than anywhere else in the world. it's allocated in way that inevitably is going to have a lot of losers. amazon is a factor in driving that but not the only factor to me, the real opportunity if you're in amazon is not about bricks and mortar. it's not against arbitrages against individual categories. it's really about this notion that they've changed the way the supply and distribution systems are, first in nonperishable products, now in their effort

with whole foods to go into perishables. they've done the same thing in cloud services i look at that and say, that change in the way things are distributed is a structural change in the economy that amazon is doing pretty much all by itself. they're the one getting all the benefits and i don't see why that's going to change in 2018. to me, the risk in the stock is external stuff you know, tax cut goes through, people perceive that the deficit is going to go up, interest rates start to rise, that becomes a barrier for retailers in general, including amazon that to me is a much greater threat than execution in 2018. >> roger, it's tim so everything you said is right, retailers' outlook looks grim, that's your view but amazon is arguably priced to perfection >> oh, amen. >> you're a rational guy at some point where does this valuation price, and we know they are the death knell for every industry, we know that retail has changed, we know it's a new world. >> and if i knew, i probably

would have been out of the stock a long time ago. the great thing is the stock has been priced to perfection for years. i buy it when it goes down i've never been able to call a top on it. i've been horrible at it so i've stopped trying my basic view of the thing is, i have a portfolio mix that right now is not overinvested. i can handle a correction if we get one. i have the position i want in amazon if that comes if this is the only stock you own, it's 100% of your portfolio, then the concern you're raising is exactly correct. the way i'm currently positioned, i like what i own in it i'm not worried about that issue. if the market does correct, i have a big cash buffer to allow me to buy things when they hit the price points i'm looking for. and on amazon, the one thing i can say is that the fundamental picture here is, it's an extraordinary because in each market in which they operate, they've changed the rules profoundly it makes it hard for competitors to fight back. so they're effectively playing a

different game as a shareholder, boy, that feels like the best protection i could have >> roger, great to see you, thank you, happy thanksgiving. >> hey, happy thanksgiving to everybody. to the viewers especially, i mean, i'm thankful for all of you and i'm thankful for the opportunity to be alive at this time take care, all of you. >> amen. roger mcnamee, elevation partners guy adami, what do you think >> amazon, he made the call, you can't pick a top he buys every dip. >> there's been no top >> there's been no top, today an all-time high. american express, a way to play the retailers, is a monster double top potential i think there's an opportunity to sell it here, not unlike what we saw in tesla a few months ago. look for a move back down to 80 bucks, good segment for next friday, mel. coming up, will the next mega merger be a quick deal? broadcomm may be making a deal on qualcomm.

plus tim seymour says one stock that's been in the gutter is about to break out. and later, there he is, the man who moves markets, getting ready to join us here on set with the bold new call much more "fast money" still ahead. ah, dinner.

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welcome back to "fast money. the mega merger could be with the chip makers. broadcomm just raised the stakes let's get to josh lipton in san francisco with the details >> reporter: melissa, broadcomm is considering raising its offer after talking it over with qualcomm's top shareholders, that according to reuters. the level and timing of any new offer is unclear but apparently it includes broadcomm now offering more of its own stock broadcomm, remember, had previously made that $70 bid qualcomm did finish today up 2% at 68 bucks per share. paul jacobs, qualcomm's executive chairman, says the offer significantly undervalues his company. analysts who covered broadcomm

said they thought qualcomm's board would up the offer if the deal goes through, it would create a tech powerhouse, the third largest semiconductor compa company behind intel and samsung. qualcomm's director nominees didn't respond to request for comments >> thank you very much, josh lipton in san francisco. qualcomm's stock doesn't necessarily trade like the bid is going to be raised significantly at all it doesn't even trade up to the previous offer >> qualcomm has a litany of licensing issues and they have legal issues, i think that's what's holding the stock back.

>> remember what happened to pfizer, it blew up books across the street i think people are being very cautious >> there's no regulatory issues. here's the risk to this whole idea of bringing jobs back, broadcomm coming back here they buy qualcomm, they're cutting jobs, not adding jobs. that's the the catch 22 that this m&a has in this environment. >> months ago, qualcomm would have jumped at it. but qualcomm is out of their malaise, issues in china, problems with apple, a lot of it is self-inflicted.

now they're coming out of it $70 is cheap i'm not sure why the stock isn't trading to this level. this bid is probably going to north of 80 bucks when all is said and done. >> options traders are betting chip makers could be due for a dip. >> let's look at what tracks the semiconductor, it's up 47% year to date, versus the nasdaq up 27% year to date options activity was pretty hot today in the smh foot volume was ten times that of calls there was two trades that stuck out to me, one was short dated, one a bit longer dated they're both put purchases to open today there was a buyer, 15,000 of the december 1st weekly, that's the week from this coming friday, okay, the 102 1/2 put, those break even at 10220, 3 1/2% between now and december 1st. then a purchase of 10,000 of the

february 100 puts, at $2.50 for those. those break even at 97.50 or 7% from the trading level i just want to go to the chart here we can't really see the out performance here but you can see this thing has actually gone kind of parabolic here that move in qualcomm has helped, that 30% rally in intel has helped nvidia making new highs seemingly every day has helped a whole heck of a lot. this is something that's getting extended here. when you look at this breakout level, that was $90. in the near term they're playing for a move back here and then in february they're playing for a move back here and then i just want to make one other point, why we're seeing possibly some outright put performance, this is implied volatility, the price of option in the smh it's nearing 2017 lows here. so, you know, using long premium strategies, buying options to express directional views is making sense in this environment right now. instanci >> thanks for that, dan. the "options action" team will

be off this friday because of the holiday but join us next friday for more "options action." ahead, i'm melissa lee, you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide meantime here's what's coming up on fast. >> the future is where you and i are going to spend the revs of our lives. >> the man who can predict the future jpmorg jpmorgan's marko colonel an owe videotape will be here chinese internet stocks are on fire having gained more than a trillion and a half this yr.ea the traders think one name in particular is going even higher. we'll tell you which one i think it's terrific. your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and? >>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late. td ameritrade's elite service team can handle

your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike. we got your back kate. >>does he do that all the time? oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. help from real traders. only with td ameritrade. coal an owe videotape. ♪ let out your inner child at the lexus december to remember sales event. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

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welcome back to "fast money. if you thought f.a.n.g. stocks were your best bet, you might want to look overseas to china chinese tech stocks are outperforming their american counterparts let's go to a man who is always red-hot, dom chu >> reporter: melissa, i have hot streaks here and there but nothing close to what these chinese tech companies have. look towards the s.t.a.b. ones the "s" is like the aol of china. "t" is the facebook of that country. "a" is for alibaba and "b" is for baidu.

alibaba is up 116% and then baidu is the quote unquote laggard, only up by 53% this year. if you translate that into market value gains, you're talking about adding $600 billion just between the four of them, meaning s.t.a.b. is now collectively worth $1.1 trillion one of the vehicles that some traders and investors are using is the crane share csi china internet etf, the ticker is kweb the fund is about $1.3 billion in net assets and it counts many of these types of stocks in its top holdings including those s.t.a.b. names it's gained 76% year to date some traders are wondering if these stocks have gone a little too far, too fast, have too many traders taken a "stab" as owning them

>> always witty, dom, happy thanksgiving tim, what do you think of chinese tech, given the run? >> a great way to figure out the valuation is what growth is, pe over your growth gives you a ratio of where you are if you look at the peg ratio of the chinese names, tencent is a little under one if baba is your amazon, the valuations aren't even close if tencent -- really that's a little bit of facebook, that's whatsapp, that's all the gaming, that's blizzard. the thing about tencent is you're buying to me an incubator. that's what's fascinating about these companies. they've done multiple ipos where they own controlling majority or minority stakes. these are things they've done in the last couple of weeks, multibillion dollar ipos and

they're still very attractive. >> tim's been all over these alibaba made an all-time high today, give or take. why doesn't alibaba trade at even close to the same valuation? maybe people are concerned there's some fugazy going on >> i think we have to break that down >> sham going on i think alibaba ship four times as many packages as amazon, obviously it's a population thing, i get it. they also have double the gross margins of amazon. either they're kicking it on all kinds of levels or there's something shammy going on. >> for u.s. internet companies to succeed in china, they've never been able to do it so these guys have this kind of walled garden which is them playing with the government the way they know how to do it, and they're having tremendous growth another one, i don't know how you fit that, but waymo is up

190%, the short messaging service. >> that's a product. >> that's twitter. >> it is twitter >> and there's all -- you watch your youtube, you want your google, you got it inside of tencent. look at the pieces of these companies, it's extraordinary. you're essentially getting the entire tech sector in these names. >> our next guest is a man some say moves markets and he's worried now about tech you want to listen to him even if he does get a little technical sometimes, because he's been spot on. here is what he said the last time on the show >> the majority of assets are nonsingle lane fundamentals. in terms of volumes, it seems to be more pronounced where we think that the fundamental single name volumes are probably less than 10%. nonfundamental should be everything from systematic, from passive, but also microinvesting, which are not

going to differentiate individual stocks but rather microdevelopment >> thank goodness for the subtitles. >> that has worked out, as the s&p has been up 2.5% since that call let's welcome back marko kolanovic, always great to have you on the show. >> thank you >> where do we stand at this point as we go into year end it sounds like you see very limited downside and potential upside because of tax reform in 2018 >> that's correct. so already in october, the last time i was here, we basically said that there is upside risk and now we are sort of reiterating that when we look at the tax reform, we think market is underpricing probability of a tax reform. we tried to attribute how much market went up because of earnings, how much it went up because of tax reform. we think about 2.5% because of tax reform now when we kind of saw how much tax reform could add to earnings, $12, that translates into 8%.

basically 8 minus 3 is 5, so we think 5% upside could be from here if there is a movement on tax reform that's one the other is year end seasonality. the end of november, december, generally the market tends to drift higher those two angles we think could give some more upside to the market >> how do you reconcile the forecast for upside in the markets when you point out in the same note that institutional buyers are almost fully invested >> correct we're saying there is an upside, tax reform is a big catalyst when tax reform happens, how much more can we go from there we tried to answer that by basically looking at positioning, looking at a potential sign in the marketplace, the systematic investors, how leveraged they are. on the positioning side, we find a retail investor is actually pretty levered up. if you look at nyc margin debt to s&p ratio, when you look at

the percentage of u.s. household wealth investing in equities, pretty high, close to all time highs, basically same thing on the institutional side, hedge funds, microhedge funds, equity hedge funds, high 90s percentage that sounds scary in terms of historical >> tesla has gone from 4.8 to 4.3. >> yes, i think investors are a little bit on one side of the boat the reason is likely central banks' low volatility. we have a decent global growth there are some decent fundamentals as well we do think upside is here >> marko, nobody seems to care about the yield curve, so we won't bring it up. what derails your bullish thesis >> basically could be aggressive fed hiking next year, it could be ecb and doj pulling back liquidity. it could be simply valuation

getting too stretched. and some of the technicals, we talk about this, what we call exuberance, a lot of the leverage in quant strategies, a little increase in volatility could start things spiraling >> when bears take a look at the canaries in the coal mine, they look at high yield, they take a look at the q10 compression. are those things to worry about? >> no, i think q10 is something to watch for, we're forecasting almost entirely end of next year more than that, probably stock inflows into balance sheets, some sort of situations that we did not have in the past historically flattening is a little bit of a leading indicator of recession i'm not considering so much flattening as leverage and potential sort of withdrawal of monetary inflows into the financial outlet

>> marko, thank you for joining us happy thanksgiving gobble gobble. >> i've probably got to go to break here can i do a psa quickly >> go ahead. >> do not say, i'm begging you, folks, no happy turkey day and don't do the gobble gobble thing. it's imbecelic. >> we're in a seasonal period where the market could squeeze up into year's end people can't put their finger on it, it seems like it's going to be something we don't expect at this point the list gets shorter and shorter. >> importantly, we talked about yesterday, the international money that's been flowing in we see on the desk has been fierce. that's usually the last dollar to come into the u.s. market and push to, you know, valuations to a higher level the first quarter, with markets giving it the sort of, you know, end line for tax reform. and then i think we price it in.

if we don't get it, it will sell off. >> the dollar has been range bound. you can go back and buy germany, a lot has been made about merkel ewj has been the best performing markets of the world, trading at a significant discount check that out still ahead, tim's got a hot hand, knocking pitch after pitch out of the park. can he do it again we'll find out plus turkeys don't fly but people do. a record number of people are expected to hit the airports how is it out there, contessa? >> reporter: it looks good out here, melissa. there's probably airline thanksgiving for packed planes this holiday season. a lot of travelers are giving thanks for a big surprise. today, smart planning is helping the new new york rise higher than ever. as the world leader in unmanned aerial systems, we're attracting the world's best talent to central new york. and turning the airport into a first-class transportation hub.

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it's the day before thanksgiving, as if you didn't know contessa brewer is at the airport with more. >> reporter: you know how it is

when people are crushed trying to get their bags? we've seen it be fairly organized today. and in fact that's in spite of air travel from newark itself up more than 6% this year those raall the airlines united alone is expecting 44,000 people to depart just today, 400 flights to places around the country. when passengers get inside, there's open kiosks to print out your boarding pass the security lines are reasonable there's this trend, 51 million people overall traveling this year that's up 3.3% over last year. more people than have traveled on this holiday weekend than since 2005 and yet when they get here, there's no major misery. take a look at this misery map by flighttracker what we're seeing is that things look astonishingly calm across the nation in fact the most misery, right here at newark airport and yet i don't see why.

i checked the flights to san francisco and houston, chicago everything is on time. where there are delays, they're very slight at this point. one of the things making travelers happy is they've paid cheaper airfares than they have since 2013 in fact they're down 23% over last year. a lot of people thankful for that, melissa. >> it looks downright empty there, contessa. thank you for that report, contessa brewer, despite some crowds, airlines have had a turbulent run. check out the dow transports, more than 3% over the last month. the biggest losers, alaska air tumbling a whopping 18%. csx falling 7% norfolk southern down 3% doubt theorists would say trouble ahead. tim, are you a doubt theorists >> i think the transports have some room to go higher i think the airlines are

comfortably at the bottom of their zone if you start to see that creep up, it's actually where you want to be. but the negative headwinds there are things that have been keeping these guys down. the precash flow is fine these guys are running their businesses better but we don't believe that if we look at the valuations >> cheaper flights, oil, that's concerning airlines have to be able to move prices higher in times like this and they're having a struggle doing it >> when you look at delta, trades around ten times forward earnings give or take. probably is less you have 11% eps growth. october numbers are very good. you'll get november numbers in a week or so $50 stock, a lot of analysts have a $68 price target on this. i get the last couple of months have been difficult to own >> if you're going to talk about transports and what it means for the broader market, you really

want to focus on the behemoths, fedex and ups, and how they fare their stocks have sold off over the last few weeks we know they've had some difficulty just preparing for busy holiday seasons, especially as e-commerce has been ramping over the last five years or so i think they both report in the next couple of weeks, fedex does that could be a real dedetermina dedeterminant. the proxy battle between p&g and nelson peltz is heating up we'll bring you the latest details. tim is warming up to pitch a lagging stock. energy is changing fast and we're changing with it. building a smarter grid, investing in new technologies, that's aep's road to the future. and the international brotherhood of electrical workers helped make that happen. the ibew's outstanding union professionals have the skills and training to get the job done right.

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welcome back to "fast money. last month tim pitched paypal for a breakout >> you can see this stock has been up like a rocket this year. the question is, we talked about this is the multiple at 30 times worth it you know it is, it's growing faster buy paypal >> paypal has been on fire this year, since tim's pitch it's up another 15%. tim, you still like it, you're still long >> yeah, and there's a couple of different catalysts, they've sold off assets, they're using the balance sheet, using their optionality. you stay long. >> let's have another fast pitch, head on over to the

plasma >> we're walking and talking i want to talk about the steel sector, u.s. steel, a stock that ultimately is best positioned to take advantage of any policy changes we may or may not have in washington. again, the bottom line is you have a recovery in steel prices that's been a very significant tailwind some of that is china taking dirty supply off the market. some of that is tubular prices are up the sensitivity for u.s. steel is enormously high when steel prices go up a $50 move higher in steel equals an ebitda lift. in the third quarter of 2016, they were pushing u.s. steel and this whole concept of possibly even bankruptcy. totally wrong. they've brought down debt to 1.2 billion. the valuation is very interesting. finally, the up trends, intact

moving forward, if i can, there we go. okay so first let me hit clear and clear out those charts this is where we were in 2016. you could make an argument this trend has been intact the entire time the bottom line is we've challenged a lot of directional in here, it's held above the 200, it's held above the 100 for a stock that is enormously volatile, we've seen 3, 4, 5% moves up and down over the last two or three months. based upon any expectation of policy deals, wilbur ross is a steel market guy this is the guy in washington who's got their back we haven't heard anything out of this, and when we have, it's a rocket go buy this out. >> tim, a 100% agree i'll push back on the politics what if the trump administration were to soften their stance regarding china and their steel

production >> i think u.s. steel has looked into that abyss. i don't think the stock is trading on tariffs and slapping protectionism on it. u.s. steel is trading higher on the performance. if you look at the last couple of quarters, they've been generating free cash flow. they're above 600. i think they're going higher that's obviously huge for them >> all right time to vote >> i am 100% with tim on this. i'm a buyer of steel this is a global growth story. i think a lot of the china issues have been cleared up. they'll continue to work to the long side. >> you guys are all geeked up about this global synchronized thing, but what i read tells me it's a decelerating a little bit. >> i don't know what you're reading. the biggest misinformation >> the biggest argument you made is off a really bad line i think that thing is -- >> this was the bottom this was the bottom in january

of 2016. >> i just asked you to vote, wow. anyway guy? >> it's funny, i wrote my little x marks the spot before i saw the lower third graphic x marks the spot cowen upgraded the stock i bet you they upgrade it again or raise their price target. and i'll say this very quickly, there's a little gap in that chart that tim didn't mention, but i will say somewhere between 33 and 35 is where we filter in. >> two buys, one sell here on the desk we want to hear from you at home head to twitter right now and vote in our poll @cnbcfastmoney. accumulations up to 8 inches... ...don't know if you can hear me, but [monica] what's he doing? [lance] can we get a shot of this cold front, right here. winter has arrived. whooo! hahaha [vo] progress is an unstoppable force.

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welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of deere, having its best day in six months, the stock hitting an all-time high after crushing earnings it's now up more than 40% this year do chase deere here. >> both on eps side and on the revenue side but when you look at the guidance for the first quarter, they guided equipment sales up 38%. this is a company that's now traded 20 times forward earnings

with the eps growth to back it up as people get more and more optimistic about this global synchronized recovery that tony dwyer speaks about, my man marko over there who we just had to translate, he spoke of some things people are getting all fired up. and john deere wins. >> that's what you call a subtweet that was not cool. >> what, me? >> it seems like we were talking about the stock earlier. we saw a lot of industrial stocks in this past earnings cycle do this exact sort of thing, gap up to all-time highs, a massive volume, it seems like there's this euphoria, i don't know where they go we're starting to have a combination of multiple expansion in a big, big way. >> earnings are being driven by top line growth. it's not manufactured earnings growth i look at it and say, 100% right, the story will continue to work. it will continue to work for a period of time the stock is expensive will i be chasing it tomorrow morning? the answer is no

>> if john deere is working, what else is this symptomatic of i look at a lot of the ag stocks, they've been stuck with low commodity prices, i would look at your ag names and mining names because they're moving if deere's business is that strong, that's telling you something. up next, did tim's pitch for x mark the spot? we'll reveal the results after this [vo] when it comes to investing, looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock.

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when he's done carving the turkey, he watches "dirty dancing. >> they liked it >> yes, you are a buyer, congrats, tim. gobble, gobble, ahead of this turkey day tomorrow's thanksgiving, so while there are many things to be thankful for, our traders have picked four stocks they are especially thankful for this year, tim, kick it off >> i'm thankful to emerging markets because they've given me a career >> i'm thankful for oled. this is a very thick ip company. they have all international property on all these patents for oled it's a buy >> i'm thankful for bk and

bitcoin, that has helped me offset some contrarian short trades this year >> gobble gobble, guy. >> happy turkey day. i'm thankful for lockheed martin, a company's stock that keeps on giving. >> we're test tes >> my mission is simple. "mad money" starts now hay i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money. welcome to cram america. other people want to make friends i'm trying to make you money. call me at 1-800-734-cnbc or tweet me @ji