hello. welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth these are your headlines chinese equities selling off as the financial sector leads declines amid concerns of liquidity tightening. consensus on the rate path but discord over inflation the latest fed minutes show policymakers are concerned about market imbalances. altice shares gain ground after speculation that it will sell one of its units, but it still remains one of europe's worst performers in 2017.

and sen ticentrica shares s disappointing second half after losing 823,000 customers in four months good morning welcome back to the show i have some pretty good news when it comes to the eurozone for pmis, for november all three headline pmis above the forecast for the reuters polls, and the forward looking indicators pointing to a busy december, according to ihs market. the pmis pointing to third quarter gdp growth of 0.8% those are strong numbers, just to give you one of the lines here the november composite pmi flash at 57.5, well above expectations i should tell you that the euro/dollar has risen over the last 45 minutes. it's currently up by 0.2%.

in part because the french numbers blew it out of the water. looking at components like jobs growth, the fastest since 2001 the german numbers also easily beating expectations that's helping the euro/dollar currency want to show you the equity space. one hour into the trading session, the stoxx 600 is down ever so slightly to the tune of 0.3% volumes will be a lot thinner today given that the u.s. for half of the day is out, given the thanksgiving holiday to our u.s. viewers, happy thanksgiving happy turkey day a number of updates from the likes of centrica. we also had thyssenkrupp, that's weighing on the dax. the european equity markets, this is the picture. xetra dax off by 0.3% after falling 1.2% in yesterday's trading session. that, in large part, had to do with the strength of the euro.

the xetra dax continuing those losses today the ftse 100 off by 0.4. centrica is a big story there. we'll get to that in a second. as far as the sectors are concerned, this is the picture we have two in the green, construction and materials slightly outperforming along with technology. utilities down by 0.8% i think centrica, national grid are to blame for this. chinese shares have had their biggest fall in 1 1/2 years on the liquidity concerns the composite index was down 2%, and analysts have said with the government's increase in de-leveraging liquidity in the stock market has been impacted let's get more analysis on this with jiahe chen, and michael sullivan has also joined me around the table

jiahe, let's kick things off with you what's the selling in the chinese equity markets down to is it weak volumes is it simply just profit taking? >> i think it's just profit taking if you look at this year, it has been rising quite a lot. the 600 was rising 24% even after today's fall if you look at the fixed income market today, it's been stable because the fixed income market has been a bear market over one year today is a good day for the mixed income market. liquidity is okay. it's like profit taking. china pmi has been rising over 100% since the debbeginning of i

year and dropped 5% today, that's all right >> you say it's down to profit taking, but that said, we had new regulation come through over the last week or so. for the crackdown on micro lending for example. a lot of investors used this to buy stocks do you foresee a total ban on that and do you applaud some of these moves put in place by the regulator? this connection between the small landing and the equity market has almost no lynink between the two. the very poor people borrow 1,000 yen, 500 yen for daily use, not for equity investment, so there's probably no connection between these two most of the small lending companies are lifted in the states lathrather than asia

i would say there's no link at all. >> we have to leave it here. thank you very much for your perspective. as i said, michael o'sullivan has also joined me around the desk i don't know if you make anything of the moves we saw overnight in china the volumes are light. japan is out forev trade today, make it is just profit taking, but you have a view on china going into 2018. is that view one that should keep us up at night? are you worried? >> i think some people see in china today, they see the echo of japan in the '80s, taiwan in the '90s, spain ten years ago. for me the key difference is the policymakers in beijing are alive to this. they know the risks. in the last three weeks we have had three very prominent and public interventions by the governor of the peoples bank of china warning that there was too

much leverage in the system. so i think i'm supportive in terms of what the policymakers are doing. remember we just had the communist party congress, where effectively they get the political buy-in, the mandate and the program for the next five years that will balance the managing of the transition of the chinese economy with social cohesion these kinds of policy moves are part of this if we look back to what happened in europe and the states ten years ago, i think it's prudent, and gordon brownwood would praise me for saying that, prudent to disengage slowly in terms of where leveraged debt levels are >> the chi nez rnese regulatorse government is try doing this carefully. they learned from mistakes in the past, such as the huge selloff that we saw at the start of 2016.

at the same time, we have had these warnings about a minske moment by the government do you believe that we can avoid such a moment which is a sudden collapse of asset prices in china? >> i think what's interesting about china, it's still a young country in terms of where it's come the last 30, 40 years a lot of their institutions are quite young. two year s a gs ago with the fluctuations in the currency and the stock market, the policymakers did not communicate maybe in the way we in the west would like to see them communicate in the markets but they are learning quickly, spending more time in the western conferences. they're very good attacking and ebbing in terms of liquidity last week the bond yield pushed up above 4% and we had a

liquidity injection. >> we will have more to talk about, not just china but your outlook for 2018, that's coming up in the next 20 minutes or so. also coming up on the show, the latest fed meeting minutes reveal concerns about low u.s. inflation, but a rate rise in december is still on track more after this short break. ( ♪ ) more people shop online for the holidays than ever before. (clapping) and the united states postal service delivers more of those purchases to homes than anyone else in the country. ( ♪ ) because we know, even the smallest things are sometimes the biggest. even the smallest things come to a complete stop. recalculating. in one mile, arrive at a place where you make your own lane,

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the latest federal reserve minutes show concern about inflation with some disagreement about what's keeping it so low and how long this will last. the minutes do not indicate a move away from a widely expected december rate hike policymakers express concern about a rising stock market and concerns about what if the market stumbles. steve liesman has the details. >> reporter: fed officials continue to grapple with the conflict of inflation that's too low and asset prices that to some on the fed are worrisomely high minutes of the october meeting show the fed is on track to hike rates in december an additional quarter point but also showed a

broad inflation debate with a few showing the fed should not hike until u.s. inflation is convincingly on track to the 2% target fed chair janet yellen earlier this week provided a curtain raiser on the broad-based concerns at the fed. >> we expect it to move back up over the next year or two. but i will say, i'm very uncertain about this my colleagues and i are not certain that it is transitory and that we are monitoring inflation very closely and i'll go back to what i said earlier about keeping an open mind and not assuming you have a monopoly on truth. there may be something more endemic or long lasting here

>> from the other side, arguing for higher rates, the minutes show many fed officials think the economy is operating at or above the employment rate that could spark inflation. they think the connection between low unemployment and higher inflation will begin to work in the u.s. economy after the meeting markets continue to see a 93% chance of a rate hike this december and are split on whether or not a rate hike follows in march of 2018 some are also worried that keeping rates too low for too long could cause increased risk to final stability and they're worried about the build up of financial imbalances translation, stock prices may be too high and some are worried their own low rates may be fueling a bubble steve liesman, cnbc business news. we know future fed meetings could look different depending on who president trump chooses for the board of governors that includes janet yellen's seat when she steps down the trump administration will have the opportunity to fill

four seats, potentially shaping the course of the initial bank for years s ts to come. global economic growth is expected to be sustained through 2018 credit suisse forecasts good if limited returns. let's bring back michael o'sullivan some interesting takeaways from the fed minutes yesterday. one being that valuations may be too high for the taste of some fomc members and there may be a sharp reversal do you agree with that >> i think the u.s. valuations are high, very high, they're right into the top level historically we're underweight u.s. equities. on bouts of strength in the u.s., we take money out of that and put it in europe and japan i think interestingly that the fed brings this up we will have wholesale change on the fomc bill dudley is the one that is intellectually responsible for

bringing market conditions into the fed and fed thinking it's interesting that's beginning to perk late for some of the fed, financial conditions are too easy, even at this stage the big question mark in the markets, where is inflation? we're desperately looking for it nobody is able to find it. as the jobless rate falls, the hope is the phillips curve will work again is 2018 the year when inflation makes a comeback and we're seeing more justification for the wind back of stimulus? >> i think i'm stating the obvious. in terms of our outlook at credit suisse, the risk factor in the next year is inflation and central bank balance sheets and whether there's an acceleration in what i call the end of accommodation the inflation is there it's slowly creeping higher. in some cases it's getting close to where central banks within a it to be the uk is an example that's probably overshot. lots of things going on.

the impact of technology for me the interesting issue is how labor markets changed and how that is in some corners negating peoples bargaining power. that seems to be a feature the next year is the show-me year for inflation we see it normalizing rather than spiking higher. >> what are the big trades for 2018 will we continue to see the dollar grinding higher versus the euro because of the back drop of higher inflation and the reflation trade going on >> the dollar in the short-term is contingent on tax reform and what the former fbi chief can show us. the scene is there for the euro to rally more. growth is beginning to accelerate in europe, compared to this time last year, it's really impressive and there are signs that in some european

countries, inflation has got a bit more bite in terms of -- compared to parts of the u.s. and also we'll get more news on qe disengagement from the ecb as we get towards next december >> briefly, michael, what do we do with equities at this point we've seen a stellar rally do we take profits now or do the returns continue >> we have a positive view on equities we're looking to a number of areas, emerging market consumers, emerging market small caps, companies who will spend money on m&a, capex, and then in europe, domestic european plays. we just take profits in germany and switch money into france >> michael thank you very much for that michael o'sullivan now, in other company news, this was a shocker, i warned you, centrica reaffirmed its 2017 guidance despite losing 823,000 accounts between july and october. the co of the uk utility company

warned the energy supply business had a disappointing second half warning that trading conditions were highly competitive. share prices were off 15.5% over the past three months, the stock falling 3 %. remy is backing its full-year guidance after a sharp rise in operating profits. results were boosted by strong demand in china and the u.s. the distiller said it is focused on higher-end liquor which offset higher marketing spend. and thyssenkrupp has come out with better than expected profits and strong orders. it swung to a loss charging sailing of european operations cnbc spoke with the ceo about his strategy for tackling overcapacity what we wanted to chief in signing the memorandum of understanding that we want to solve the underlying problem, which is overcapacity. as you said correctly, all the

steel notes in uk, netherlands and germany, they always restructured the business. but the success out of that restructuring was always taken away because of underlining problem. we want to solve that issue and make more than 10,000. >> altice is looking to sell its dominican republic unit. the sale comes as the french telecoms giant seeks to reduce leverage by cutting noncore assets this after a run of acquisitions raised the company's net debt to more than five times the annual core profit. in the u.s. a record number of people are expected to fly this thanksgiving weekend but the airport rush may not pay off for airlines >> reporter: the long lines say it all the thanksgiving travel rush is on >> we were wondering who crowded it was going to be when we got here, it's crazy already. >> not as bad as i expected. >> surprised it's not worse.

>> reporter: overall the number of people flying at some point this long thanksgiving weekend is up 5% they may not like the packed planes, but they are paying less for their seat airfares remain near the lowest level in years that's good news for passengers, but for airlines, the pressure on prices has made it tougher to boost revenues meanwhile, jet fuel prices have been rising. which is cutting into airline profits. >> since july we have been seeing a pretty strong surge, up over 30% so right now, it's a race between fares and fuel right now fuel is winning the race >> reporter: the mixed picture on revenue growth is one reason airline stocks have drifted lower. but for the millions flying this weekend, the best news is that the vast majority of flights should be on time. the weather is expected to be relatively mild for most of the country. >> i've been checking the weather, the incoming flight and where i'm going to all week.

it's been nice to see that they have no snow, no rain, no nothing. should be smooth sailing >> i'm on the basketball team at the university of chicago. we get, you know, about a day to come home. if there's any delays, we're probably not going home. no delays is great for me. >> reporter: a smooth thanksgiving weekend in the skies with few delays or cancellations would be welcome news for the airline industry, and set it up for what could be a strong holiday season that extends into january let's talk more about this with john snell head of aviation at iges market it's been an incredibly busy time for the airlines. going into the christmastime it's the time to shine but also disappoint where do you think the airlines are at this point? >> it's a peak time, you're right. and airlines will have been looking carefully at their planning they'll make sure the maintenance is done on the aircraft so they're available, sort out the landing slots for

their aircraft so they're maximized to ensure that's available for passengers. they will have made sure that the crew rosters are correct and appropriate for that level of activity there's a grade deal of airline planning that goes into this through the summer and winter to make sure these peaks are properly reflected >> ryanair is a company that's finding it difficult to recover from this reputationally is something like that fixable >> i think it is because people will continue to want to have adventure, to go to different parts of the world, as time goes on, while this has been a short-term downturn for them, i fully see them

recovering and they obviously eventually offered better pricing to attract customers back but easyjet and others will be looking and making sure they don't fall into the trap and, "b," pricing is competitive. >> one big theme discussed in that package and report was the rise in fuel prices given the rise in oil prices i want to get a sense from you how difficult this is to manage from some airlines many of them are hedged. i don't know where they're hedged for each specific airline, i guess will have a knock on effect on their profitability and margins. to what extent can they pass that on to customers >> one major developments in aviation is in engine technology engines need fuel, fuel is the major contributor to that. so, inevitably the developments of engines that go on to new lighter aircraft is really key to improving the efficiency,

reducing the level of fuel usage and increasing revenue per trip. >> right >> so from an aviation perspective, that recapitalization of aircraft to make them more efficient and reduce reliance on fuel will make the aircraft go further, and that is key to that particular issue >> one final question. do you see another monarch airlines on the horizon at this point? do you think anyone else is in trouble at this point? we heard from thomas cook yesterday. might be a different situation, but margin pressure is a big theme for the industry >> it is positioning yourself in that market is key. budget airlines are squeezing up the full cost airlines are squeezing down so, somewhere in the middle there is going to be some consolidation. that happened with air berlin and monarch.

those have to be taken into account as the aviation sector moves forward. >> john, thank you very much for that i don't know if you'll be flying over christmas, if you do, openfully no delays. i won't be this time, which is nice thank you very much for that. coming up on the show, how are brexit uncertainty and political turmoil impacting the british economy? we'll bring you the latest gdp rating after this short break. when kids get really excited about my children's books

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm carolin roth these are your headlines chinese equities selling off as the financial sector leads declines amid concerns of liquidity tightening. consensus on the rate path but discord over inflation the latest fed minutes show policymakers are concerned about market imbalances. altice shares gain ground after speculation that it will sell one of its units, but it still remains one of europe's worst performers in 2017. and centrica shares head for their biggest one-day drop on

record after a disappointing second half saw the british utility company lose 823,000 customers. good morning if you're just tuning in, i'm waiting for the second print of third quarter gdp for the uk we have got it it's confirmed at 0.4% remember that print was better than expected. it looks like household spending has picked up steam. that's very positive given all the brexit uncertainty and the squeeze on income that consumers are currently facing third quarter gdp is confirmed at 1.5% year on year, 1.4% quarter on quarter obviously this follows what philip hammond said yesterday, he would end large cuts to britain's growth outlook in his autumn budget.

forecasts for uk gdp were downgraded into the next decade with the economy expected to grow 1.5% this year, down from the previous 2% forecast the british chancellor sought to rally support with sweeteners, such as brining forth the rate cut, more healthcare funning and support for those looking to get on the property ladder >> i received representations for a temporary stamp holiday to first-time buyers, but this would only help those ready to purchase now and would offer nothing for the many who will need to save for years so, with effect from today, for all first-time buyer purchases up to 300,000 pounds, i am abolishing stamp duty altogether >> among the investments hammond announced was 500 million pounds in funding for technological initiatives from ai to driverless cars. the chancellor took a dig at

jeremy clarkson. >> i know jeremy clarkson doesn't like them, but there are many other good reasons to pursue this technology so today we step up our support for it sorry, jeremy, definitely not the first time you've been snubbed by hammond and may >> speaking to cnbc after the budget announcement, economic secretary steven barclay addressed concerns about the growth outlook downgrades. >> this is a historic readjustment based on forecasts that the obr made since 2010, where they expected volatility to return to its pre-banking crisis level this is a historic change what is key, it sets out continuing to reduce the deficit, we reduced it by three quarters so far and we will continue to meet our fiscal targets as we move through to 2022 and 2023. the deficit coming down from 9%

of gdp down to 1.1%. doing so at the same time is investing in the long-term in our productivity, infrastructure, skills, getting the country fit for the future so we're ready for prospects and addressing some short-term challenges or freezing fuel duty for motorists. >> you're confident those measures will succeed at boosting living standards? clearly that's ban big poppictof debate going into the budget >> takes time for some of these infrastructure skills measures to come through. we have seen it in london. these are long-term infrastructure projects. a lot of the skills training takes time to feed in. housing, a big theme of the budget, is already starting to show results this year we had the highest number of homes, 270,000 homes built, but mowe're more ambitios we want to take that up to

300,000. looking to r & d and ensuring high-tech companies are supporting patient capital so investors can invest for the long-term. if you look at foreign direct investment into the uk, this your the level of investment doubled to 158 billion compared to 80 billion last year that shows the direction of travel and the confidence people have in the uk moving forward >> all right let's have a quick look at european markets obviously volumes will be lighter today given that the u.s. is celebrating turkey day happy thanksgiving, everyone the xetra dax is off by 0.2%, just off the session lows. just hanging ton veon very closo that 13,000 level. centrica weighing on along with national grid. thyssenkrupp was a laggard on the xetra dax after disappointing numbers. when it comes to the currency markets, this is the story

the dollar was hit across the board by fed minutes yesterday the minutes underscoring that inflation is very difficult to find in this environment hopefully this will come in 2018 showing you the pound sterling against the u.s. dollar, just a bit higher on the session given that we got confirmation of 0.4 growth in the third quarter. a tiny bit of recovery intraday. a quick look at the bond markets. yields are creeping a touch higher today i should mention we had pmi data better than expected pmi al also seeing ecb minutes out at 10:30. several social democrat lawmakers are calling for fresh coalition talks with angela merkel's conservatives after the

german president urged all parties to avoid new elections but martin schulz rejected another grand coalition after his party scored their worst general election performance in post-war history the business friendly fdp appeared to offer an olive branch to chancellor merkel but its leader ruled out resuming talks. staying with politics, the people have spoken that's what zimbabwe's new leader said in a triumphant speech emerson mnangagwa hailed a new era for zimbabwe speaking at the headquarters of the panu-f party, the president promised to lead into a new era. >> the people have spoken. you yourself said if the people say i must step down, you shall

comply this is the time to comply this is ts is the voice of the e today we are witnessing the beginning of a new and unfolding democracy for our country. >> now, lebanon's al hariried si the last three weeks should be a wake up call he returned to beirut nearly three weeks after his abrupt resignation in a broadcast from riyadh on november 4th hariri's shock announcement and stay in saudi arabia prompted speculation that he was being

held captive by the kingdom a hariri left saudi arabia on the 18th traveling to paris on the invitation of emanuel macron who weighed in to try to diffuse tensions his reversal ends a turbulent few weeks and could ease a developing crisis between saudi arabia and hezbollah speaking to a crowd of thousands during lebanon's independence day on wednesday, hariri sought support for his lebanon-first sentiment. >> translator: we are a people of moderation and stability, we are here on independence day to say there's nothing more precious than our country and our principles do not change. our slogan lebanon first, lebanon first, lebanon first i should tell you when it comes to stock market news, we saw another record on the nasdaq yesterday. amazon was a main contributor there. jumping more than 1% after a

cnbc report that it's about to announce a cloud deal with cerner that would push amazon's cloud d business into an industry that's been slower to adapt. and broadcom is considering sweetening its bid to buy rival qualcomm by adding more stock to the offer. broadcom is prepared to increase pressure including threatening to replace its board of directors. broadcom's co said he is open to waging a takeover fight. shares of qualcomm jumped on the back of the new closing in the u.s. session more than 2% higher. the fallout from uber's data breach is widening as the uk and at least four u.s. states say they may investigate the company over the coverup uber revealed it paid hackers $100,000 to destroy data on more than 57 million customers. arjun joins me around the desk you have been looking into the story and talking to regulateders across the globe.

what are they saying >> i've been on the phone in morning to regulators in australia. they said they have commenced inquiries with uber. singapore says they're in touch with uber over the breach. it's early day talks with uber, trying to figure out what happened, why and why uber paid the money to the hackers in order to keep this quiet a lot of questions here around that the potential fines on uber and punishments on uber could be quite large if you look at the different territories. they all have different punishments in place for anyone who breaches data protection rules. it's too early to say if that's the case over the next few months the regulators will look into what happened and come up with a decision >> so what's the bigger concern here the fact that the data breach happened or the way in which uber covered it up >> i think one concern with regulators across the world is about data and data protection as we sign up for more and more services, they say these

companies have a big eye on responsibility to make sure data is protected if it is found that the data protection requirements were not sufficient, that's a big concern. on the other hand, it's why did uber pay the hackers this much money in order to delete the data and how do we know the data has been deleted uber may have paid the money, we have not seen proof that the data was deleted, so that data may still be out there maybe there was a ransom that hackers demanded that's something we don't know that's a focus of a lot of inquiries as to why that money was paid >> what does it mean for the ongoing london case, the optics are bad here >> for the uk as a market, very crucial market, uber says it has somewhere in the region of 40,000 drivers in the uk so pretty substantial market it doesn't directly impact those particular ongoing cases, the

likes of the london appeal but it adds to the pressure and stance of uber here in london. if they are continued to be seen as irresponsible, that could have an impact on the way that regulators in the uk look at uber and decide what to do in some of these cases around employment or whether or not they're allowed to operate in london dara khosrowshahi since he's been instilled as ceo, he's been on a drive to clean up the company. every time he tries to do something right, some new skeleton comes out of the closet the latest one is this data breach that's something he has to deal with and he'll have to calm investors down and say everything is all right. i have everything under control. but who knows what else is lurking in the shadows >> one last question i have for you. i don't know if you have the answer, probably not, because we don't know anything about how the ransom was paid. do you know the currency

was it bitcoin >> i don't know the currency, but it would be interesting if it was bitcoin ub we'that is the currency of choice for hackers >> all speculation at this point. for more on uber, head to cnbc.com in other news, a new report from goldman sachs shows equity long and short hedge funds are having their best year since 2013 with the average year to date return at 10% popular stock positions mainly in tech helped to boost gains as they outperform a rising equity market pushing portfolio turnover to a record low. short interest from hedge funds and the s&p 500 is at its lowest since 2012. to many people out there, that's a warning sign e-mail the show, whether you agree or disagree with that. the address is streetsignseurope@cnbc.com you can also find us on twitter,

streetsignseurope@cnbc and tweet me at @carolincnbc coming up, floats, balloons, marching bands we'll be live from new york previewing the macy's thanksgiving day parade. all that and much more coming up yeah, they saved us a ton, which gave us a little wiggle room in our budget. wish our insurance did that. then we could get a real babysitter instead of your brother. hey, welcome back. this guy... right? yes. ellen. that's my robe. you could save seven hundred eighty two dollars when liberty stands with you. liberty mutual insurance.

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welcome back jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon is betting that donald trump will serve only one term he told the economic club of chicago that as long as democrats field a reasonable candidate in 2020 he believes they can win back the white house. speaking exclusively to cnbc, outgoing high pressure enterprise ceo meg whitman denies planning a run for office her announcement she will step down next year triggered speculation that she may run for president in 2020. she ran as republican for california governor and lost back there 2010. she later endorsed hillary clinton in the 2016 presidential race she told cnbc she'll be busy after hpe but not as candidate >> it's not true

i can definitively say i'm not running for elected office, president or any other office. you know, i'm going to be the incoming chairwoman of teach for america. going to remain civically engaged. but will definitely not be running for office >> it is the season for turkey happy thanksgiving to our american friends and viewers turkeys tend to be a good thing this time of year but not for your portfolio we set the table with some of the worst stock performers in 2017 on both sides of the atlantic stateside the s&p 500 has risen over 16%, but under armour, ge and macy's have fallen fall short of that pace, all off by 40%. the top 600 stocks in europe have risen an average of 8% in 2017 pandora, altice and dixons carphone are the worst performers with losses as much as 57%

for many, the macy's thanksgiving day parade marks the unofficial kickoff to the holiday season we have a preview with jay gray who joins me from the big apple ahead of that parade how are things looking early on this morning, jay? >> good morning. looking great. everything getting prepared for the big parade here today. beautiful weather now. the wind has died down, which is nice a little chilly, but that's what you expect this time of year in new york city. security tighter than it's ever been for this parade police telling us they have more officers on the beat than they've ever had in the past that includes an anti-terrorism task force, k9 units, officers on every corner and snipers on the buildings. a lot of security visitors can't see. this after the attack on halloween, less than a month ago, where a man used a truck

killing 8 and injuring 0 th 20 a lot of people here to see these monstrous balloons olaf from the hit "frozen" is one of the new balloons and leading the way of the 18 balloons let's look down the street on central park west, you can see it, they are lined up, led by tom, the turkey. the thanksgiving turkey is always the front-runner. d dustin lynch is a performer, the goo goo dolls and smoky robinson making an appearance during the parade should be a lot of fun a lot of families start their thanksgiving morning with this parade back to you. >> thank you very much for that. i hope olaf comes to life later on he looks quite deflated at this point. hope you get to enjoy the parade. whenever we talk about thanksgiving, of course we have to talk about black friday

it is one of the biggest shopping days of the year. let's ta given we're based in the uk, have to talk about the significance of black friday here we know the trend swept over from the u.s how big is it here can you evade that trend >> there are people out there this morning asking whether or not you can put the genie back in the body ttle, the short ansr is no. it's bigger this year, more retailers are participating, the spend over the weekend is set to be more than last year >> despite the fact we have this brexit uncertainty and a squeeze on incomes, would that have any major effect >> well, if anything, it's actually made the general shopping public more attuned to looking for deals. so, if anything, this plays to that value consciousness that we see as a general trend, not just this year but obviously in a broader context.

i think it's important to say there's not just one day it's spreading certainly over the weekend. cybermonday and so on. in some ways it's taking over a week or more with things like warmup deals, thing lossic that going on >> still there's all this concern that consumers will be frontloading purchases in november, this week that you just talked about, and not going out on high street and buying so much on high street in december, and then december will turn out to be a flat month for retailers. is that something that you fear once again is that something retailers are worried about? >> it comes down to your specific segment and category, whether this is an expandable category, whether you can issede more people to shop for what they intended or needed or whether you're pulling forward the purchases they would have made anywhere, maybe at full price. this is a big dilemma.

but the reality is that if you're going to participate, you need to do it. there's a good way to do it. >> what's the good way to do it? >> right the first point to make, if you put a strategic has the on, this is part of a shift towards the bringing together of offline stores, and online experiences, and the move to digital that is a big topic in retail, not just in the uk but more broadly so black friday is an extreme test of a retailer's dimg tagit capabilities if they can't get it right here that will come back to bite them throughout the year. so seeing this as a catalyst for making sure your digital experience and capabilities and technology and fulfillment are right on and ready and can deal with the spikes and demand that

black friday brings is key >> i would assume that every retailer out there would want to emulate amazon at this point this is the star when it comes to e-commerce. amazon has done something interesting this year. in some ways they're going back to brick-and-mortar. why do you think they're doing that amazon made no bones about the fact that it believes in physical space acquisition of whole foods, experiments with amazon go this is just one more confirmation that they appreciate what we certainly believe, which is that retail is about both digital and stores. about how you make those work together in a black friday context this requires military-style planning. many cleans start planning for black friday the week after the one before so how do you use the wealth of big data out there to understand shopping patterns and the right

promotions for your customer base so you are managing the demand, flow throughout the day and weekend so you're pushing people to the categories where you want them to shop, not the ones where you don't how do you test technology and fulfillment capabilities, so they can deal with the huge spikes that we'll see. you know, working with logistics and your supplier partners, to make this happen this is not something you can do on your own. it's part of a chain the people who do that have a chance of standing up, stacking up well against amazon >> do you think measuring foot fall alone is deceiving because so many sales happen online or is foot fall an important indicator? >> it will be big this weekend if you're out on oxford street, you'll see a lot of people out there. but we measure online traffic as well as foot fall now. it's the two together. >> i don't think i have the kurnl courage to go to oxford street this weekend i don't know about yourself.

i'm not going. thank you for that very insightful. before we wrap up this show, let's look at european markets, they're mixed. the xetra dax under pressure, off by 17 points thyssenkrupp weighing on that index. the ftse 100 dragged down by utilities, like centrica the cac 40 is doing better, up by 0.3%. volumes will be quieter today give than it is thanksgiving and the u.s. markets will be closed for half of the session. that's it for today's show i'm carolin roth we'll see you tomorrow have a fantastic day

( ♪ ) more people shop online for the holidays than ever before. (clapping) and the united states postal service delivers more of those purchases to homes than anyone else in the country. ( ♪ ) because we know, even the smallest things are sometimes the biggest.

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